Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][17]. Core Insights - The company reported a 12% year-on-year increase in adjusted profit for the second half of 2025, with total revenue reaching 39.3 billion yuan, a 1% increase year-on-year. The social entertainment revenue decreased by 17%, but the decline has narrowed [1][8]. - The gross margin for the second half of 2025 was 35%, up 2.4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to optimization in music copyright costs. However, it decreased by 1.4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter due to a decline in high-margin online music business revenue [1][8]. - The company plans to increase marketing investments in 2026 to enhance user engagement and expects that investments in high-quality content will not negatively impact profit margins [1][8]. Financial Performance Summary - For the second half of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 39.3 billion yuan, with online music revenue at 30.2 billion yuan, an 8% increase year-on-year. Subscription revenue was 25.8 billion yuan, up 12% year-on-year, with a 15% growth in subscription users [2][14]. - The adjusted profit for the second half of 2025 was 9.1 billion yuan, reflecting a 12% increase year-on-year. The company has a cash reserve of over 13 billion yuan and is considering stock buybacks [1][8]. - The company forecasts adjusted profits of 22.2 billion yuan, 24.9 billion yuan, and 27.5 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a downward adjustment of 6%, 12%, and 18% [2][17]. Market Trends - The online music business is experiencing a slowdown in growth, while the decline in social entertainment revenue has narrowed significantly from 43% in the first half of 2025 to 17% in the second half [2][16]. - The company is focusing on attracting younger users and developing original content to differentiate itself in the market [17].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector underperformed the market in Q4 2025, with the overall sector down by 9.3% compared to a slight decline of 0.2% in the CSI 300 index. Notably, the pharmaceutical commercial segment showed a positive performance with a 5.3% increase, while other segments like medical services and biological products experienced significant declines [4][8] - The total net asset value of pharmaceutical funds decreased to 358.4 billion yuan, a 9.0% decline quarter-on-quarter. This marks the first time since 2019 that passive pharmaceutical funds (181.8 billion yuan) surpassed active funds (176.5 billion yuan) [4][14] - The overall pharmaceutical holdings across all funds dropped to 7.97%, a decrease of 1.71 percentage points. Active pharmaceutical funds maintained a high concentration with a holding ratio of 97.45% [23] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - In Q4 2025, the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector lagged behind the CSI 300 index, with a decline of 9.3%. The chemical pharmaceuticals segment fell by 9.6%, biological products by 12.4%, and medical devices by 10.6% [8] 2. Pharmaceutical Fund Size - As of Q4 2025, the net asset value of pharmaceutical funds was 358.4 billion yuan, down 9.0% from the previous quarter. Active funds accounted for 176.5 billion yuan, a 14.6% decrease, while passive funds reached 181.8 billion yuan, down 2.8% [14] 3. Pharmaceutical Holdings Ratio - The pharmaceutical holdings ratio for all funds was 7.97%, down 1.71 percentage points. Active pharmaceutical funds had a holding ratio of 97.08%, while passive funds had 97.83% [23] 4. Holdings Structure Analysis - The highest sub-sector holding in Q4 2025 was chemical preparations at 37.5%, followed by other biological products at 20.8%. The largest increases in holdings were seen in traditional Chinese medicine (+0.98 percentage points) and chemical preparations (+0.62 percentage points) [29] 5. Additions and Reductions in Holdings - The top three pharmaceutical stocks by the number of funds holding them were Heng Rui Medicine (498 funds), WuXi AppTec (408 funds), and Mindray Medical (204 funds). Notably, Heng Rui Medicine saw a reduction of 236 funds, while Ying En Biological-B experienced an increase of 47 funds [84][88]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the media sector [3] Core Insights - The media sector outperformed the market in January, with the Shenwan Media Index rising by 17.94%, surpassing the CSI 300 Index by 16.29 percentage points, ranking second among 31 sectors [4][22] - The number of game approvals remains high, with 177 domestic games and 5 imported games approved in January, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 33.8% [4][31] - The report highlights the potential for growth in the gaming market, projecting a revenue of CNY 350.79 billion in 2025, a 7.7% increase year-on-year [35] - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to boost box office revenues, with seven films scheduled for release, including "Fast Life 3," which has generated significant interest [66][72] Summary by Sections 1. Media Sector Market Review - In January, the media sector ranked second among 31 sectors, with a TTM-PE of 49.9x, placing it in the 98.8th percentile over the past five years [22][27] 2. Gaming - The report notes a sustained high level of game approvals, with 182 game licenses issued in January 2026, marking a 33.8% year-on-year increase [31] - The gaming market is projected to generate CNY 350.79 billion in 2025, with mobile and client games expected to see revenues of CNY 257.1 billion and CNY 78.2 billion, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 7.9% and 15.0% [35][41] 3. Film and Television - January's total box office was CNY 1.964 billion, down 69.2% year-on-year, primarily due to fewer new releases [55] - The Spring Festival is anticipated to drive box office recovery, with a nine-day holiday expected to boost ticket sales [66][67] 4. AI Applications - The report emphasizes the rapid development of AI applications, particularly with the introduction of Seedance 2.0, which enhances video generation capabilities [86][100] - The competition for AI application traffic during the Spring Festival is expected to intensify, with major players launching promotional campaigns [6][86]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][23] Core Insights - The company's revenue increased by 3% year-on-year in Q4 2025, reaching 27.5 billion yuan, while the non-GAAP net profit decreased by 11% to 7.07 billion yuan due to investment losses of 1.7 billion yuan [1][10] - The deferred revenue grew by 34% year-on-year, indicating a healthy cash flow status and reflecting changes in the game structure [2][15] - The company continues to expand its global presence, with successful launches of games like "逆水寒" and "燕云十六声," which have attracted over 80 million players globally [2][18] - AI tools are expected to lower production costs in gaming, but the integration of AI with complex game systems requires deep design and operational experience, creating a barrier for new entrants [3][18] - The company anticipates a rise in subscription revenue for its music service, with a projected increase in user growth and average revenue per user (ARPPU) in 2026 [4][20] Financial Summary - For 2025, the company forecasts adjusted net profits of 40.6 billion yuan, 44.7 billion yuan in 2026, and 48 billion yuan in 2027, with slight downward adjustments of 5% and 4% for the first two years [5][23] - The projected revenue for 2025 is 112.63 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 7% [5][28] - The company expects a gross margin of 64% for 2025, with an EBIT margin of 32% [28]

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月13日 1 月金融数据解读 居民信贷"破冰" 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 李智能 | 0755-22940456 | lizn@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980516060001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-81982035 | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090003 | 事项： 1 月我国新增社融 7.22 万亿元（预期 6.51 万亿元），新增人民币贷款 4.71 万亿元（预期 4.50 万亿元）， M2 同比增长 9.0%（预期 8.4%）。 评论： 证券研究报告 值得关注的是，今年 1 月社融结构与去年同期高度相似，均为总量强劲、票据压降、直接融资活跃的组合。 而去年在超预期的"开门红"之后，后续月份持续走弱，反映出 1 月数据易受银行开门红冲量、政策靠前 发力等非内生因素扰动。因此，尽管当前数据释放积极信号，但单月表现尚不足以确认趋势性拐点，后续 仍需观察 2—3 月数据的可持续性。 展望后续，1 月金融 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月13日 1 月金融数据解读 居民信贷"破冰" 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 李智能 | 0755-22940456 | lizn@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980516060001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-81982035 | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090003 | 事项： 1 月我国新增社融 7.22 万亿元（预期 6.51 万亿元），新增人民币贷款 4.71 万亿元（预期 4.50 万亿元）， M2 同比增长 9.0%（预期 8.4%）。 评论： 图1：金融数据分项一览 资料来源：Wind，国信证券经济研究所整理 结论：1 月金融数据呈现总量强劲、结构分化的特征。新增社融环比多增 5.01 万亿元，高于季节性水平， 绝对金额创历史新高。受去年同期高基数影响，社融同比增速小幅回落至 8.2%。信贷方面，总量同比延 续少增，但结构持续改善。企业端票据融资同比明显多减，短贷与中长贷结构优化；居民端释放积极信号， ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][17]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 3.93 billion yuan for 25H2, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1%, with adjusted profit growing by 12% to 910 million yuan [1][8]. - The company is focusing on shareholder returns, with over 13 billion yuan in cash reserves and plans for stock buybacks [1][8]. - The online music revenue reached 3.02 billion yuan in 25H2, up 8% year-on-year, driven by a 12% increase in subscription revenue [2][14]. - The company aims to enhance its marketing efforts in 2026 to attract more users to its platform [1][8]. Financial Performance - In 25H2, the gross margin was 35%, up 2.4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to optimized music copyright costs [1][8]. - The adjusted profit forecast for 2025-2027 is 2.22 billion, 2.49 billion, and 2.75 billion yuan, respectively, with a downward adjustment of 6%, 12%, and 18% [2][17]. - The company expects a growth in subscription users by 15% in 25H2, with an anticipated increase in ARPPU in 2026 [2][14]. Market Trends - The social entertainment revenue decreased by 17% in 25H2, but the decline was less severe compared to a 43% drop in 25H1 [2][16]. - The company is focusing on developing original content to differentiate itself and attract younger users [2][17].

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月13日 金融工程日报 沪指震荡下行收跌逾 1%，存储器、半导体设备逆势拉升 核心观点 金融工程日报 市场表现：20260213 市场全线下跌，规模指数中中证 2000 指数表现较好， 板块指数中科创100指数表现较好，风格指数中沪深300成长指数表现较好。 国防军工、消费者服务、食品饮料、电子、农林牧渔行业表现较好，有色金 属、石油石化、建材、钢铁、电新行业表现较差。中航系、航空发动机、半 导体设备、通用航空、航母等概念表现较好，光纤、玻璃纤维、钨矿、PTA、 稀土等概念表现较差。 市场情绪：20260213 收盘时有 46 只股票涨停，有 17 只股票跌停。昨日涨 停股票今日表现低迷，赚钱效应较弱，高开低走，收盘收益为-1.10%，昨日 跌停股票今日收盘收益为-2.67%。今日封板率 78%，较前日提升 0%，连板 率 16%，较前日下降 20%。 市场资金流向：截至 20260212 两融余额为 26456 亿元，其中融资余额 26293 亿元，融券余额 163 亿元。两融余额占流通市值比重为 2.5%，两融 交易占市场成交额比重为 10.0%。 折溢价：20260212 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - In January 2026, the media sector (Shenwan Media Index) rose by 17.94%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 16.29 percentage points, ranking second among 31 industries [4][22] - The current TTM-PE of the Shenwan Media Index is 49.9x, positioned at the 98.8th percentile over the past five years, indicating high valuation levels [4][22] - Notable stock performances included BlueFocus, TianDi Online, TianLong Group, and YiDianTian, while GuiGuang Network, Hubei Broadcasting, and ShengTong Shares saw declines [4][27] Group 2: Gaming Sector - In January 2026, a total of 177 domestic games and 5 imported games were approved, with the cumulative issuance of game licenses reaching 182, a year-on-year increase of 33.8% [29][31] - The Chinese gaming market is projected to generate revenues of 350.79 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.7% [35] - Mobile and client games are expected to generate actual sales revenues of 257.1 billion yuan and 78.2 billion yuan respectively in 2025, with growth rates of 7.9% and 15.0% [41] Group 3: Film and Television Sector - The total box office in January 2026 was 1.964 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 69.2%, primarily due to fewer new releases [55] - The upcoming Spring Festival period will feature 7 films, with "Fei Chi Ren Sheng 3" being the most anticipated, potentially boosting box office recovery during the 9-day holiday [66][72] - In January, the top-performing series included "Punishment 2" with 1.131 billion views, followed by "Pride" and "Xiao Yao" [74] Group 4: AI Applications - Seedance 2.0 has gained attention in the video generation field, enhancing the commercial potential of AI-generated content [86] - The competition for AI application traffic during the Spring Festival is intensifying, with major players like Yuanbao and Qianwen launching promotional campaigns [6] - The integration of AI applications is expected to drive growth in the gaming and IP toy sectors, with a focus on product cycles and performance during the holiday season [6]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: 250-Day New High Distance Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model tracks the distance of stock prices or indices from their 250-day high to identify market trends and hotspots. It is based on the momentum and trend-following strategy, which has been proven effective in various studies[11][18]. - **Model Construction Process**: The 250-day new high distance is calculated as follows: $ 250\text{-day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{Close_t}{ts\_max(Close, 250)} $ Where: - $ Close_t $ is the latest closing price - $ ts\_max(Close, 250) $ is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days If the latest closing price reaches a new high, the distance is 0. If the price falls from the high, the distance is a positive value, representing the degree of decline[11]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies stocks and indices with strong momentum and highlights market leaders, aligning with the principles of momentum investing[11][18]. 2. Model Name: Stable New High Stock Selection Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model focuses on selecting stocks that exhibit stable price paths and consistent momentum, as smoother price trajectories tend to yield stronger momentum effects[24]. - **Model Construction Process**: Stocks are filtered from the pool of those that hit a 250-day high in the past 20 trading days. The selection criteria include: - Analyst attention: At least 5 buy or overweight ratings in the past 3 months - Relative strength: Top 20% in 250-day price performance - Price stability: Evaluated using the following metrics: - Absolute value of price changes over the past 120 days - Sum of absolute daily price changes over the past 120 days - Momentum continuity: - Average 250-day new high distance over the past 120 days - Average 250-day new high distance over the past 5 days The top 50 stocks based on these criteria are selected[24][26]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model emphasizes smooth price trajectories and consistent momentum, which are less likely to attract excessive attention, thereby enhancing the momentum effect[24]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. 250-Day New High Distance Model - **Indices' 250-Day New High Distance (as of February 13, 2026)**: - Shanghai Composite Index: 2.00% - Shenzhen Component Index: 2.35% - CSI 300: 2.72% - CSI 500: 3.51% - CSI 1000: 3.14% - CSI 2000: 2.54% - ChiNext Index: 3.32% - STAR 50 Index: 5.50%[12][13]. 2. Stable New High Stock Selection Model - **Selected Stocks**: 50 stocks were identified, including Zhongtung High-tech, Dike Co., and Xiechuang Data. - **Sector Distribution**: - Technology: 21 stocks (most from the electronics industry) - Manufacturing: 16 stocks (most from the machinery industry)[27][32]. --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: 250-Day New High Distance - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the relative position of a stock's price to its 250-day high, capturing momentum and trend-following characteristics[11]. - **Factor Construction Process**: $ 250\text{-day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{Close_t}{ts\_max(Close, 250)} $ Where: - $ Close_t $ is the latest closing price - $ ts\_max(Close, 250) $ is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days[11]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor effectively identifies stocks with strong momentum and aligns with established momentum strategies[11][18]. 2. Factor Name: Price Stability - **Factor Construction Idea**: Evaluates the smoothness of a stock's price trajectory, as smoother paths are associated with stronger momentum effects[24]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Absolute value of price changes over the past 120 days - Sum of absolute daily price changes over the past 120 days[24]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor highlights stocks with stable price movements, which are less likely to attract excessive attention, enhancing the momentum effect[24]. --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. 250-Day New High Distance Factor - **Indices' 250-Day New High Distance (as of February 13, 2026)**: - Shanghai Composite Index: 2.00% - Shenzhen Component Index: 2.35% - CSI 300: 2.72% - CSI 500: 3.51% - CSI 1000: 3.14% - CSI 2000: 2.54% - ChiNext Index: 3.32% - STAR 50 Index: 5.50%[12][13]. 2. Price Stability Factor - **Selected Stocks**: 50 stocks were identified, including Zhongtung High-tech, Dike Co., and Xiechuang Data. - **Sector Distribution**: - Technology: 21 stocks (most from the electronics industry) - Manufacturing: 16 stocks (most from the machinery industry)[27][32].