事项： 复盘：2010 年以来三轮牛市行情中银行板块行情如何演绎？根据过往经验，牛市行情中银行股表现往往可 以分为三个阶段，（1）牛市启动初期：市场往往是普涨行情，银行指数有不错的绝对收益，且跑输大盘 并不明显；（2）牛市中期：银行指数往往难以跑出超额收益，该阶段成长性板块表现更优；（3）牛市后 期：往往是银行最好的投资机会，有绝对收益和超额收益。2010 年以来的三轮牛市行情中，除了 2014-2015 年资金驱动为主的牛市行情，另外两轮中后期银行板块都跑出了超额收益。个股方面，虽然银行指数往往 要等到牛市中后期，即经济有较为明确的复苏迹象后才会进入加速上涨阶段，但优质高成长银行往往率先 启动。2016-2018 年初的经济复苏的牛市行情中，银行指数跑出了超额收益，大行、招行和城商行都有绝 对收益和超额收益，但多数股份行表现一般，主要期间叠加了金融严监管，股份行受冲击较大；2019-2021 稳增长政策发力经济预期改善的牛市行情中，个股分化非常大，优质高成长银行有超额收益，不存在某一 细分板块占优。 银行板块近期回调何时结束？银行板块近期出现回调，我们认为主要是牛市氛围渐浓，追求超额收益的交 易性资金在撤退 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年07月27日 宏观经济宏观周报 本周高频指标加速回升，投资和房地产表现较优 主要结论：高频指标加速回升，投资和房地产表现较优。 经济增长方面，本周(7 月 25 日所在周）国信高频宏观扩散指数 A 维持正值， 指数 B 继续回升。从分项来看，本周房地产、投资领域景气有所回升，消费 领域景气有所回落，本周房地产、投资领域表现相对较优。从季节性比较来 看，本周指数 B 标准化后上升 0.3，表现优于历史平均水平，指向国内经济 增长动能环比加速上行。 基于国信高频宏观扩散指数对资产价格进行预测，显示当前国内利率偏低， 上证综合指数偏高，从均值回归的角度看，预计下周（2025 年 8 月 2 日所在 周）十年期国债利率将上行，上证综合指数将下行。 资料来源：Wind、国信证券经济研究所整理 相关研究报告 《政府债周报-国债净融资边际放缓》 ——2025-07-25 周度价格高频跟踪方面： （1）本周食品、非食品价格下跌。预计 7 月 CPI 食品价格环比约为 0.5%， 非食品价格环比约为 0.5%，整体 CPI 环比约为 0.5%，CPI 同比持平上月的 0.1%。 （2）6 月上旬流通 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年07月27日 资金强度：多行业资金流入，总体流速进一步放缓 本周，资金流入速度进一步放缓，总体日均资金强度（日均涨跌 x 日均成 交量）为+12.6 亿港元/日，上周为+14.1 亿港元/日，近 4 周平均为+10.9 亿 港元/日；近 13 周为+4.9 亿港元/日。 港股市场速览 优于大市 分行业看，28 个行业资金流入，2 个行业资金流出。资金流入的主要有：非 银行金融（+2.3 亿港元/日）、电子（+1.6 亿港元/日）、电力设备及新能 源（+1.5 亿港元/日）、建材（+1.2 亿港元/日）、有色金属（+1.0 亿港元/ 日）；资金流出的有：银行（-0.2 亿港元/日）、通信（-0.2 亿港元/日）。 "反内卷"加速演绎，但量价节奏放缓 盈利预测：港股通整体上修加速，钢铁快速上修持续 股价表现："反内卷"加速演绎，上游行业显著上涨 本周，恒生指数涨 2.3%，恒生科技涨 2.5%。风格方面，中盘（恒生中型股 +3.9%）＞大盘（恒生大型股+2.3%）＞小盘（恒生小型股+1.2%）。 主要概念指数全部上涨，表现领先的有：恒生高股息（+4.2%）、恒生香港 35（+2.5%） ...

2025年07月27日 证券研究报告 | 美股市场速览 市场持续上涨，价值风格跑赢 行业研究·海外市场专题 美股 弱于大市·维持 证券分析师：王学恒 证券分析师：张熙，CFA 010-88005382 0755-81982090 wangxueh@guosen.com.cn zhangxi4@guosen.com.cn S0980514030002 S0980522040001 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 数据速览 价格走势：市场持续上涨，价值风格跑赢 本周，美股进一步上涨。标普500涨1.5%，纳斯达克涨1.0%。 目录 风格方面：大盘价值（罗素1000价值+1.6%）>小盘价值（罗素2000价值+1.4%）>大盘成长（罗素1000成长+1.2%）>小盘成长（罗素2000成长+0.5%）。 21个行业上涨，2个行业下跌，1个基本持平。涨幅居前的行业有：耐用消费品与服装（+5.3%）、电信业务（+5.2%）、制药生物科技和生命科学（+5.2%）、零 售业（+2.9%）、资本品（+2.8%）；下跌的行业有：汽车与汽车零部件（-3.4%）、食品饮料与烟草（-1.0%）。 资金流向：资金小幅流出， ...

2025年07月26日 证券研究报告 | 证券分析师：王晓声 010-88005231 wangxiaosheng@guosen.com.cn S0980523050002 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 风电产业链周度跟踪（7月第4周） 行业研究 · 行业周报 电力设备新能源 投资评级：优于大市（维持评级） 证券分析师：王蔚祺 010-88005313 wangweiqi2@guosen.com.cn S0980520080003 摘要及投资建议 【行业要闻】 【板块行情】 • 近两周风电板块表现分化，涨幅前三板块为轴承（+12.1%）、叶片（+6.8%）和海缆（+2.0%）。个股方面，近两周涨幅前三分别为长盛轴承（+37.5%）、中材科技（+14.9%）和五洲新 春（+9.8%）。 【行业观点】 • 海风方面，25年上半年江苏、广东重大项目陆续迎来开工。二季度进入交付旺季；25年是国管海风开发元年，预计规划、竞配、招标、政策下半年有望落地。"十五五"期间年均海风装机 有望超20GW，远超"十四五"水平。陆风方面，25年行业装机有望达100GW创历史新高，年初以来零部件企业迎来量价齐增，全年业 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the AIDC power equipment and grid industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The global AI computing load is expected to grow significantly, with new AI computing loads projected at 9.7/15.9/20.2/22.3/23.4/24.6 GW from 2025 to 2030, leading to a corresponding increase in demand for AIDC power equipment [5][13] - The domestic data center industry is expected to see substantial capital expenditure growth, with major cloud providers anticipated to ramp up investments, particularly in AI infrastructure [18][24] - The industry is characterized by a long power transmission chain, with established global players like Eaton and Schneider Electric dominating, while domestic companies are gaining competitive advantages in various segments [5][13] AIDC Power Equipment Summary - The demand for AIDC power equipment is projected to reach 29/48/60/67/70/74 GW from 2025 to 2030, with an average annual growth rate of 20% [5][13] - The market space for dry-type transformers, medium and low voltage switchgear, UPS, HVDC, and solid-state transformers is expected to reach 85/341/41/380/239 billion yuan by 2030 [5][12] - Recent performance in the AIDC power equipment sector has shown significant gains, particularly in transformers and switchgear, with notable stock performances from companies like TBEA and XWDA [5][28] Grid Industry Summary - National power engineering investment reached 1,057 billion yuan in June 2025, a year-on-year increase of 22.5% [32] - The grid engineering investment for the same period was 871 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.1% [33] - The bidding results for the State Grid's transformer equipment showed a total bid amount of 211.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.1% [61] - The focus for the grid industry includes high voltage orders and the development of new business models such as virtual power plants and green electricity direct supply [5][55]

该项目主要建设 2×300 吨/天纯氧生物质流化床气化装置、67.2MW 风电、8200Nm 3/h（标准立方米每小时） 制氢装置、10 万 Nm 3储氢装置、5 万吨/年绿色甲醇及合成装置，是国内首批符合 ISCC-EU 绿色认证要求的 风电制氢耦合生物质气化制绿色甲醇项目，所采用的核心技术与关键装备均由上海电气自研自产。 该项目通过收集生物质秸秆并进行预处理后，采用纯氧加压生物质气化、风电制氢、富二氧化碳合成气合 成甲醇等技术，将农林废弃物与风电就地消纳转化为高附加值绿色甲醇，实现生物质能与风能的高效利用。 上海电气洮南市风电耦合生物质绿色甲醇一体化示范项目是国家首批绿电制氢就地消纳示范项目，也是吉 林省百亿级重点工程之一，是"氢动吉林""吉氢入沪"战略布局的重要组成部分，对全国新能源产业发 展具有示范引领作用。该项目以风能和生物质能为基础，打造"绿色新能源+绿色化工"产业链，为实现 大规模绿电消纳提供了新的技术路线和商业模式。 证券研究报告 | 2025年07月26日 电力设备新能源行业点评 绿色甲醇项目陆续投产，为绿电消纳提供新方向 行业研究·行业快评 电力设备 投资评级：优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lithium battery industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The lithium salt prices have significantly rebounded, with carbonate lithium priced at 72,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 9,100 yuan/ton compared to two weeks ago [2] - The report highlights the acceleration of solid-state battery industrialization, with several companies making significant advancements in production and delivery of solid-state battery equipment and prototypes [3][13] - The UK government has announced substantial investments to support the electric vehicle infrastructure, including a 63 million pound investment for charging facilities and a 650 million pound subsidy policy for electric vehicle purchases [3][14] Industry Dynamics - The report indicates that certain segments of the lithium battery industry are expected to benefit from the ongoing optimization of competition, particularly in areas like energy storage batteries and lithium iron phosphate cathodes [3][14] - The report notes that the domestic sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.329 million units in June, a year-on-year increase of 27% [3] - In Europe, new energy vehicle sales in nine countries reached 278,400 units in June, up 23% year-on-year [3] Price Trends - The prices for lithium materials such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary cathodes have increased, while the prices for electrolytes have decreased [2] - The report provides specific pricing for various battery cells, indicating slight increases in prices for square ternary power cells and iron-lithium power cells [2] Company Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in specific segments that are expected to benefit from industry trends, including Wanrun New Energy, Ningde Times, and Huizhou Guanyu [2] - It also highlights companies involved in solid-state battery materials and those in the low-altitude economy and robotics sectors [2] Market Performance - The lithium battery sector has seen a 4.2% increase in the last two weeks, with notable stock price movements for companies like Ningde Times and Yihua Lithium Energy [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the banking industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [3][23]. Core Insights - The report highlights a slight growth in the scale of bank wealth management products, reaching 30.7 trillion yuan by mid-2025, with expectations to exceed 33 trillion yuan by year-end due to factors like deposit rate cuts and shifts in household funds [4]. - The duration of closed-end products has lengthened, with over 70% of products having a duration of more than one year, attributed to the increase in multi-asset and "fixed income+" products [4][8]. - There is a strategic shift towards increasing allocations in interest rate bonds and public funds while reducing exposure to credit bonds and non-standard assets, indicating a trend towards enhancing liquidity and trading opportunities [4][10]. - The distribution channels for wealth management products are expanding, with third-party sales accounting for 35% of the total, and expectations for more banks to obtain wealth management licenses [4][15]. Summary by Sections Wealth Management Products - As of June 2025, there are 194 banks and 32 wealth management companies with active products, totaling 4.18 million products and a scale of 30.67 trillion yuan, marking a 2.38% increase from the beginning of the year and a 7.53% year-on-year increase [5]. - The proportion of closed-end products with a duration of over one year has increased to 72.86%, up 5.71 percentage points from the start of the year [8]. Asset Allocation - Fixed income products dominate the wealth management landscape, with a scale of 29.81 trillion yuan, accounting for 97.20% of the total, while mixed, equity, and commodity products remain minimal [9]. - There is a notable reduction in allocations to credit bonds and equities, with a corresponding increase in interest rate bonds and public fund allocations [10]. Investor Base and Distribution Channels - The number of investors holding wealth management products reached 136 million by mid-2025, reflecting an 8.37% increase since the beginning of the year [14]. - The number of institutions distributing wealth management products has grown to 569, with a decrease in the proportion of sales through the parent bank to around 65% [15].

证券研究报告 | 2025年07月26日 2025 年 6 月财政数据快评 一二本账分化，一般公共支出继续下行 财政部公布 2025 年上半年财政数据，一般公共预算收入方面，上半年，全国一般公共预算收入 115566 亿 元，同比下降 0.3%。其中，全国税收收入 92915 亿元，下降 1.2%；非税收入 22651 亿元，增长 3.7%。上 半年全国一般公共预算支出 141271 亿元，同比增长 3.4%。分中央和地方看，中央一般公共预算本级支出 19914 亿元，增长 9%；地方一般公共预算支出 121357 亿元，增长 2.6%。 评论： 一般公共收入增速继续回落，非税收入增速下滑。6 月一般公共预算收入当月同比-0.3%，前值 0.1%。其 中税收收入当月同比 1%，前值 0.6%；非税收入当月同比-3.7%，前值-2.2%。四大税种分化，增值税为最大 拉动项。主要税种中个人所得税同比 6.8%，企业所得税同比 2.7%，增值税同比 5%，消费税同比 2%。房产 税（20.7%）和耕地占用税（9.6%）均实现较高增速，土地增值税增速-20.3%。 一般公共支出增速回落，基建类支出继续下滑。支出端，一 ...