证券研究报告 | 2025年09月09日 金融工程日报 沪指缩量收跌，科技股表现低迷、金融地产逆势上涨 核心观点 金融工程日报 市场表现：今日(20250909) 大部分指数处于下跌状态，规模指数中上证 50 指数表现较好，板块指数中上证综指表现较好，风格指数中中证 500 价值指 数表现较好。房地产、银行、有色金属、商贸零售、轻工制造行业表现较好， 电子、计算机、医药、国防军工、通信行业表现较差。黄金精选、黄金珠宝、 六氟磷酸锂、珠宝、锂电电解液等概念表现较好，液态金属、CRO、黄酒、 消费电子代工、量子材料等概念表现较差。 机构关注与龙虎榜：近一周内调研机构较多的股票是多氟多、石基信息、瑞 德智能、翔宇医疗、壹网壹创、翔楼新材、崇达技术、南都电源等，多氟多 被 167 家机构调研。20250909 披露龙虎榜数据中，机构专用席位净流入前十 的股票是新瀚新材、科新机电、博苑股份、幸福蓝海、通润装备、岭南控股、 三协电机、海科新源、旺成科技、华阳变速等，机构专用席位净流出前十的 股票是新泉股份、天际股份、景兴纸业、晓程科技、华海药业、荣泰健康、 步步高、锡装股份、中源家居、键邦股份等。陆股通净流入前十的股票是 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年09月09日 银行业专题报告——金融科技系列 优于大市 FICO：信用评分机构到数字决策管理服务商 公司概况：全球信用评分与决策管理领域的标杆企业。公司成立于 1956 年， 初衷是通过数据分析助力企业优化业务决策。旗下主力产品 FICO Score 自 1989 年开发至今，已成为美国信贷信贷决策的行业标准，美国主要贷款机构 中 90%都将 FICO 评分作为审核的重要依据。同时，FICO 积极拓展业务至决 策管理领域，提供包括账户管理、反欺诈、催收等众多业务场景决策引擎， 每个决策引擎都包含数量庞杂的算法，充分体现了 FICO 的数据分析和预测 能力。公司业务覆盖全球 100 多个国家和地区，2024 财年实现总收入 17.2 亿美元，净利润 5.1 亿美元。其中，Score 业务收入占比为 53.5%。 商业模式：评分业务和软件业务形成生态闭环，构建"算法筑基、标准锁定、 平台落地、生态放大" 的组合壁垒。算法能力是 FICO 的起点能力；将算法 能力转化为行业默认的决策标准，形成路径依赖后的替代成本极高；FICO Platform 再将算法与标准转化为可快速落地的决策工具， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry, indicating expected performance above the market benchmark by over 10% [3][29]. Core Insights - The overall mid-year performance of the internet sector is stable, with strong revenue and profit releases from AI-driven companies. AI has shown significant impacts on advertising, cloud computing, and enterprise efficiency, exemplified by Tencent's advertising growth of 20% and Alibaba Cloud's acceleration to a 26% growth rate [2][26]. - The report recommends continued investment in Tencent Holdings, Alibaba, Kuaishou, Meitu, and Tencent Music, as well as NetEase Cloud Music, which are less correlated with macroeconomic fluctuations [2][26]. Summary by Sections Product Applications - Google launched the image model Nano Banana, which has strong consistency, controllable editing, and fast processing, receiving high community praise. OpenAI has opened the ChatGPT Projects feature to free users, enhancing task management and privacy. Microsoft released GPT-realtime, upgrading voice and multimodal interactions. Amazon introduced Lens Live for real-time visual shopping, and Apple launched STAR Flow for image generation breakthroughs [1][19][20][21][22][23]. Underlying Technologies - Meta and UCSD introduced DeepConf, improving inference accuracy while reducing computational costs. Alibaba Tongyi released AgentScope 1.0, an open-source multi-agent development framework [24][25]. Industry Policies - The "Artificial Intelligence Generated Synthetic Content Identification Measures" officially took effect, establishing a comprehensive responsibility system for content generation and dissemination [25]. Key Events Preview - Upcoming events include the 2025 Global AI Chip Summit on September 17 and the 2025 AI Ecosystem Innovation Conference on September 23 [26].

证券研究报告 | 2025年09月09日 8 月进出口数据点评 出口动能趋缓，新兴市场托底 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 邵兴宇 | 010-88005483 | shaoxingyu@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523070001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-81982035 | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090003 | | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | 事项： 9 月 8 日，海关总署发布进出口数据。我国 8 月出口（以美元计价，后同）同比增长 4.4%，进口增长 1.3%， 贸易顺差 1023.3 亿美元。1-8 月出口累计同比增长 5.9%，进口下降 2.2%，贸易顺差 7853.4 亿美元。 评论： 出口增速略低于预期，"一带一路"贡献亮点 2025 年 8 月出口商品规模为 3218.1 亿美元，同比增速为 4.4 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][6][35] Core Views - The company achieved a net profit of 1.91 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.9%. Revenue for the same period was 38.15 billion yuan, up 14% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 15.5% [1][8] - New orders signed in the first half of 2025 totaled 65.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17%. Renewable energy equipment orders increased by 44% year-on-year, while clean and efficient energy equipment orders decreased by 3% [3][28] - The company is expected to reach a peak in coal power and other industry deliveries in 2025, with a forecasted production capacity of 73 GW, up 26% from 58.1 GW in 2024 [4][28] Financial Performance - In the second quarter of 2025, the company reported revenue of 21.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 30.6%. The net profit for Q2 was 756 million yuan, down 3.8% year-on-year and down 34.5% quarter-on-quarter [1][8] - The company recorded a total of 667 million yuan in impairment losses in the first half of 2025, an increase of 422 million yuan compared to the same period in 2024 [2][16] - The company maintained a period expense ratio of 9.0% in the first half of 2025, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [2][16] Order and Production Outlook - The company has a robust order backlog, with a target to complete a production capacity of 73 GW in 2025. The order quality in hydropower has significantly improved, and the company maintains the top market share in nuclear and gas power [3][4][28] - The company successfully passed assembly acceptance for the 500MW hydropower generator components and achieved breakthroughs in overseas orders for heavy-duty gas turbines [2][15] Profit Forecast - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 is maintained at 4.34 billion, 5.52 billion, and 6.09 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 48.5%, 27%, and 10.3% [4][5][28] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 15.2 for 2025, 11.9 for 2026, and 10.8 for 2027 [4][5][28]

证券研究报告 | 2025年09月09日 银行业专题报告——金融科技系列 优于大市 FICO：信用评分机构到数字决策管理服务商 公司概况：全球信用评分与决策管理领域的标杆企业。公司成立于 1956 年， 初衷是通过数据分析助力企业优化业务决策。旗下主力产品 FICO Score 自 1989 年开发至今，已成为美国信贷信贷决策的行业标准，美国主要贷款机构 中 90%都将 FICO 评分作为审核的重要依据。同时，FICO 积极拓展业务至决 策管理领域，提供包括账户管理、反欺诈、催收等众多业务场景决策引擎， 每个决策引擎都包含数量庞杂的算法，充分体现了 FICO 的数据分析和预测 能力。公司业务覆盖全球 100 多个国家和地区，2024 财年实现总收入 17.2 亿美元，净利润 5.1 亿美元。其中，Score 业务收入占比为 53.5%。 商业模式：评分业务和软件业务形成生态闭环，构建"算法筑基、标准锁定、 平台落地、生态放大" 的组合壁垒。算法能力是 FICO 的起点能力；将算法 能力转化为行业默认的决策标准，形成路径依赖后的替代成本极高；FICO Platform 再将算法与标准转化为可快速落地的决策工具， ...

磷化工行业的景气度取决于磷矿石价格的景气度，看好磷矿石长期价格 中枢维持较高水平。近两年来，我国可开采磷矿品位下降，开采难度和 成本提升，而新增产能投放时间周期较长，同时需求端以磷酸铁锂为代 表的下游新领域需求不断增长，国内磷矿石供需格局偏紧，磷矿的资源 稀缺属性日益凸显，30%品位磷矿石市场价格在 900 元/吨的高价区间运 行时间已超 2 年。据百川盈孚，截至 2025 年 8 月 29 日，湖北市场 30% 品位磷矿石船板含税价 1040 元/吨，云南市场 30%品位磷矿石货场交货 价 970 元/吨，均环比上月底持平。 海内外磷肥价差扩大。2025 年磷肥出口政策延续总量控制原则，强调"国 内优先、适当出口、自律出口、以外补内"，出口配额较去年有所缩减， 但窗口期集中于 5-9 月，法检时间优化至半个月。出口配额分两批发放， 首批集中在 5-9 月高峰期。8 月 29 日磷酸一铵波罗的海 FOB 现货价与湖 北地区市场价价差约 1599 元/吨；中国磷酸二铵 FOB 价格与山东地区市 场价价差约 1540 元/吨。当前海外磷肥价格显著高于国内，拥有磷肥出 口配额的企业有望受益于海内外磷肥高价差带来的利 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年09月09日 银行业专题报告——金融科技系列 优于大市 FICO：信用评分机构到数字决策管理服务商 公司概况：全球信用评分与决策管理领域的标杆企业。公司成立于 1956 年， 初衷是通过数据分析助力企业优化业务决策。旗下主力产品 FICO Score 自 1989 年开发至今，已成为美国信贷信贷决策的行业标准，美国主要贷款机构 中 90%都将 FICO 评分作为审核的重要依据。同时，FICO 积极拓展业务至决 策管理领域，提供包括账户管理、反欺诈、催收等众多业务场景决策引擎， 每个决策引擎都包含数量庞杂的算法，充分体现了 FICO 的数据分析和预测 能力。公司业务覆盖全球 100 多个国家和地区，2024 财年实现总收入 17.2 亿美元，净利润 5.1 亿美元。其中，Score 业务收入占比为 53.5%。 软件业务：围绕决策管理与预测性分析构建，2022 年以来平台化战略进一 步强化其核心壁垒。2024 财年软件业务实现营收 7.98 亿美元，营业利润 2.58 亿美元，营业利润率 32.3%。FICO 软件产品形态包括预配置行业解 决方案和模块化软件产品两类。2022 年以来 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [5] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 1.57 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 67.1% [1][8] - The net profit for H1 2025 was -5.23 billion yuan, with an adjusted operating loss of -1.11 billion yuan [1][8] - The automotive solutions revenue reached 1.516 billion yuan, up 66.1% year-on-year, driven by a 250% increase in automotive product solutions revenue [1][9] - The company has a strong order backlog for its Journey 6 series chips, with over 20 mainstream OEMs having adopted the technology [3][30] Revenue and Profitability - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 65.36%, a decrease of 13.7 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin improved by 209.6% [2][16] - The automotive product solutions gross margin was 45.6%, up 3.9 percentage points year-on-year [2][17] - The company’s three expense ratios decreased by 15% year-on-year, indicating improved operational efficiency [2][23] Product and Market Position - The company delivered 1.98 million sets of automotive-grade Journey series hardware in H1 2025, doubling the previous year's volume [2][28] - The company has secured nearly 400 new model approvals, with over 100 models featuring highway-assisted driving capabilities [2][28] - The Journey 6 series chips are expected to support over 100 smart models, with significant international expansion efforts underway [3][30] Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 3.39 billion, 5.34 billion, and 7.45 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to improve from -1.87 billion to 790 million yuan [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for BYD Electronics is "Outperform the Market" [6]. Core Views - The company's profitability is improving quarter by quarter, with steady revenue growth. In 1H25, BYD Electronics achieved revenue of 80.61 billion yuan (YoY +2.6%) and a net profit of 1.73 billion yuan (YoY +14.0%) [1]. - The company is expanding its AI server business across multiple segments, with a focus on assembly, liquid cooling, and power supply solutions [3]. - BYD's overseas sales of new energy vehicles have exceeded expectations, with a significant increase in unit value, surpassing 5,000 yuan per vehicle [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 1H25, the company reported revenue of 80.61 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.73 billion yuan and a gross margin of 6.88% [1]. - For 2Q25, revenue reached 43.73 billion yuan (YoY +3.9%, QoQ +18.6%) and net profit was 1.11 billion yuan (YoY +22.1%, QoQ +78.1%) [1]. - The company's new energy vehicle business generated revenue of 12.45 billion yuan in 1H25, accounting for 15.45% of total revenue [2]. Market Trends - The global AI data center market is expected to exceed $236.4 billion by 2025, with liquid cooling technology projected to grow by 88% to $4.9 billion [3]. - BYD Electronics is leveraging its parent company, BYD, to enhance its product offerings in high-value segments such as intelligent driving and thermal management systems [2]. Profitability Forecast - The profit forecast for BYD Electronics has been adjusted downward, with expected net profits of 4.7 billion yuan, 6.3 billion yuan, and 7.8 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4]. - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 21, 15, and 12 times for the same years [4].