Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [6][3]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of $2.489 billion in Q4 2025, exceeding guidance and achieving a year-over-year growth of 12.8% [1]. - The gross margin decreased to 19.2% due to increased depreciation, which aligns with guidance [1]. - The company expects revenue growth in 2026 to surpass the average growth of comparable peers [1]. - The company plans to acquire 49% of the minority stake in SMIC North and increase its stake in SMIC South from 38.515% to 41.561% [3]. - The revenue from the industrial and automotive sectors grew significantly, with year-over-year increases of 81.4% and 43.4%, respectively [2]. Financial Performance - Q4 2025 sales revenue reached $2.489 billion, with wafer revenue accounting for 92.4% of total revenue [1]. - The company shipped 2.51 million 8-inch wafers in Q4 2025, a year-over-year increase of 26.3% [1]. - Capital expenditures for Q4 2025 were $2.408 billion, a 45% increase year-over-year [1]. - The company expects capital expenditures in 2026 to remain approximately the same as in 2025, around $8.1 billion [1]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of $9.327 billion, $11.008 billion, and $12.532 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with growth rates of 16.2%, 18.0%, and 13.8% [5]. - Net profit estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are $685 million, $876 million, and $1.031 billion, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 39.1%, 27.8%, and 17.7% [5].

经济研究·宏观快评 证券研究报告 | 2026年02月11日 通胀数据快评 PPI 环比显著走强 | 证券分析师： | 邵兴宇 | 010-88005483 | shaoxingyu@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523070001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-81982035 | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090003 | | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | 事项： 2 月 11 日，国家统计局发布了 2026 年 1 月份全国 CPI 和 PPI 数据。2026 年 1 月，中国 CPI 同比+0.2%（前 值+0.8%），万得一致预期+0.15%，核心 CPI 同比+0.8%（前值+1.2%）；PPI 同比-1.4%（前值-1.9%），万 得一致预期-1.5%。 评论： 2026 年 1 月的通胀数据呈现出鲜明的分化特征：一方面，受春节错 ...

| 证券分析师： | 邵兴宇 | 010-88005483 | shaoxingyu@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523070001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-81982035 | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090003 | | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | 事项： 2 月 11 日，国家统计局发布了 2026 年 1 月份全国 CPI 和 PPI 数据。2026 年 1 月，中国 CPI 同比+0.2%（前 值+0.8%），万得一致预期+0.15%，核心 CPI 同比+0.8%（前值+1.2%）；PPI 同比-1.4%（前值-1.9%），万 得一致预期-1.5%。 证券研究报告 | 2026年02月11日 通胀数据快评 PPI 环比显著走强 经济研究·宏观快评 评论： 2026 年 1 月的通胀数据呈现出鲜明的分化特征：一方面，受春节错 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company is a subsidiary of China National Nuclear Corporation, focusing on the comprehensive utilization of natural uranium and radioactive associated mineral resources [1][12] - The company plans to raise 4.4 billion yuan through its IPO, with 2.2 billion yuan allocated for natural uranium capacity projects and 700 million yuan for the comprehensive utilization of radioactive associated mineral resources [22] - The company is expected to produce 2,659 tons of U3O8 (equivalent to 2,255 tons of metal) from overseas sources in 2024, with an estimated domestic production of 1,700 tons, totaling 3,955 tons, which represents 6.4% of the global production of approximately 61,615 tons in 2024 [1][12] Summary by Sections Natural Uranium Business - The company has a dominant position in domestic natural uranium production, holding 17 mining rights for domestic natural uranium or uranium-molybdenum mines [1][59] - The natural uranium business is divided into self-produced uranium product sales, purchased uranium product sales, and international uranium trade [1][38] - The demand for natural uranium is expected to grow steadily, with supply constraints leading to a long-term bullish price outlook [1][39] Comprehensive Utilization of Radioactive Associated Mineral Resources - The company focuses on the comprehensive utilization of monazite, uranium-molybdenum, and tantalum-niobium [2] - The comprehensive utilization of monazite produces rare earth chlorides and sodium phosphate/carbonate as by-products, while uranium-molybdenum and tantalum-niobium processing yield ammonium paratungstate and tantalum/niobium oxides, respectively [2][27] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.66 billion yuan, 3.49 billion yuan, and 4.87 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, representing growth rates of 14%, 110%, and 40% [3][4] - The estimated reasonable valuation for the company is between 108.3 and 120.9 yuan, indicating a premium of 17% to 31% over the current stock price of 92.59 yuan [4]

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月11日 优于大市 哔哩哔哩-W（09626.HK） 游戏大年及AI 应用推广有望助力公司 26 年广告收入与利润高 增长 公司研究·海外公司快评 传媒·数字媒体 投资评级：优于大市（维持） | 证券分析师： | 张伦可 | 0755-81982651 | zhanglunke@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980521120004 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 张衡 | 021-60875160 | zhangheng2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980517060002 | | 证券分析师： | 王颖婕 | 0755-81983057 | wangyingjie1@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980525020001 | 事项： 2026 年是游戏大年和 AI 应用投放大年，哔哩哔哩有望承接更多游戏及 AI 应用广告主投放预算。 国信互联网观点：哔哩哔哩有望承接更多游戏及 AI 应用广告主投放预算，带动收入与利润增长。需求看， B 站广告聚焦科技与游戏等垂类，我 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Neutral" investment rating for the AI industry in 2026 [1]. Core Insights - Major companies are significantly increasing their investments in AI, focusing on talent acquisition, computing power infrastructure, and marketing expenditures. The competition for consumer-facing AI Agent products is expected to intensify during the Spring Festival period in China [2]. - The report suggests focusing on companies with the most certainty in computing power and large models, including Alibaba, Baidu, and Tencent [2]. Summary by Sections Company Dynamics - SpaceX has fully acquired xAI, with a post-merger valuation of $1.25 trillion. The merger will allow xAI to operate as a subsidiary of SpaceX, integrating its Grok model with Starlink satellite data [17]. - Meta has launched a series of AI advertising tools, including AI Video Generation 2.0, which simplifies the creative production process for advertisers [20]. - Kunlun Technology has released the Skywork desktop version, a local multi-model AI office agent that emphasizes data security and ease of use [21]. - OpenAI has launched two core products, including an upgraded programming model and an enterprise-level AI platform [22]. - Meta is testing an independent AI video application called Vibes, focusing on AI-generated content [23]. - Google, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft have announced a combined investment of $610 billion in AI infrastructure for 2026 [24]. Underlying Technology - Step 3.5 Flash model by Step Star has been released, utilizing a sparse MoE architecture to address computing power challenges [25]. - Alibaba's Tongyi Qianwen team has open-sourced the Qwen3-Coder-Next programming model, achieving high performance with low computational costs [26]. - Anthropic has released Claude Opus 4.6, significantly expanding the context window to 1 million tokens [26]. - The Chinese Academy of Sciences has introduced the "Feiyu-1.0" model, focusing on coupled computing technology for environmental research [27]. Industry Policy - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a notice to enhance AI computing power infrastructure through a national interconnected node system [28]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring companies with strong positions in computing power and large models, particularly during the rapid deployment of AI Agent products [29].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Neutral" investment rating for the AI industry in 2026 [1] Core Insights - Major tech companies are significantly increasing their investments in AI, focusing on talent acquisition, computing power infrastructure, and marketing expenditures. The competition for consumer-facing AI Agent products is expected to intensify during the Spring Festival period in China [2] - The report suggests focusing on companies with the most certainty in computing power and large models, including Alibaba, Baidu, and Tencent [2] Summary by Sections Company Dynamics - SpaceX has fully acquired xAI, with a post-merger valuation of $1.25 trillion. The merger will allow xAI to operate as a subsidiary of SpaceX, integrating its Grok model with Starlink satellite data [17] - Meta has launched a series of AI advertising tools, including AI Video Generation 2.0, which simplifies the creative production process for advertisers [20] - Kunlun Technology has released the Skywork desktop version, a local multi-model AI office agent that prioritizes data security and ease of use [21] - OpenAI has launched two core products, including an upgraded programming model and an enterprise-level AI platform [22] - Meta is testing an independent AI video application called Vibes, focusing on AI-generated content [23] - Google, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft have announced a combined investment of $610 billion in AI infrastructure for 2026 [24] Underlying Technology - Step 3.5 Flash model by JUMP Star has been released, utilizing a sparse MoE architecture to address computing power challenges [25] - Alibaba's Tongyi Qianwen team has open-sourced the Qwen3-Coder-Next programming model, achieving high performance with low computational costs [26] - Anthropic has released Claude Opus 4.6, significantly expanding the context window to 1 million tokens [26] - The Chinese Academy of Sciences has introduced the "Flying Fish-1.0" model, focusing on coupling computation technology [27] Industry Policy - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a notice to improve AI computing power infrastructure through a national interconnected node system [28] Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring companies with strong positions in computing power and large models, particularly during the rapid deployment of AI Agent products [29]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Bilibili-W (09626.HK) is "Outperform the Market" [1][4][13] Core Views - 2026 is expected to be a significant year for the gaming industry and AI application advertising, which will likely lead to increased advertising revenue and profits for Bilibili [2][3][5] - Bilibili is anticipated to capture more advertising budgets from gaming and AI application advertisers, driving revenue and profit growth [3][5] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for Bilibili are estimated at 30.2 billion, 32.6 billion, and 36.5 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][13] - Adjusted net profits are forecasted to be 2.5 billion, 3.4 billion, and 4.6 billion for the same years [4][13] Industry Insights - The gaming industry is expected to see a rapid increase in game approvals, with a nearly 60% year-on-year growth in the number of game approvals in 2025, excluding casual games [3][5] - Bilibili's gaming advertising is projected to achieve over 30% year-on-year growth in 2026 due to increased competition among top game publishers [3][5] - AI application advertising budgets are expected to increase significantly in 2026, with Bilibili's user base overlapping with core AI application audiences [3][5] User Engagement and Advertising Metrics - Bilibili's Daily Active Users (DAU) is expected to maintain a growth rate of over 5% in 2026, with improvements in AI technology enhancing ad load from 6.7% to 7.1% and a projected 5% increase in ECPM [6][7] - The advertising revenue growth for native and brand ads is expected to be in single digits due to macroeconomic influences [7]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Tech Index has fallen below the 5400-point mark, indicating a significant pullback after previous gains in sectors like internet platforms and semiconductors[1] - The market is experiencing a "cold spring" with reduced trading volumes and profit-taking behavior observed across various sectors[1] Economic Indicators - Fixed asset investment has decreased by 3.80% year-on-year[5] - Retail sales have shown a modest increase of 0.90% year-on-year[5] - Exports have risen by 6.60% year-on-year[5] - M2 money supply growth stands at 8.54%[5] External Factors - Recent U.S. economic data, including non-farm payrolls and service sector PPI, exceeded expectations, leading to a cooling of interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve[1] - Domestic institutions are showing a strong demand for profit-taking to manage uncertainties post-holiday[1] Asset Allocation Trends - Southbound capital has shifted from high-growth tech stocks to high-dividend assets like telecommunications and banking[1] - The short-term support level for the market is projected to be between 5100-5250 points, coinciding with the 250-day moving average[1] Commodity and Currency Movements - The latest crude oil inventory is reported at 44,684 million tons, an increase of 44,935 million tons from the previous week[3] - The dollar long position has decreased to 16,610 contracts, down by 1,335 contracts[3]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Tech Index has fallen below the 5400-point mark, indicating a significant pullback after previous gains in sectors like internet platforms and new energy vehicles[1] - The market is experiencing a "cold spring" with reduced trading volumes and profit-taking behavior observed across various sectors[1] External Factors - Recent U.S. economic data, including non-farm payrolls and service sector PPI, exceeded expectations, leading to a decrease in market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts[1] - Domestic institutions are showing a strong demand for profit-taking to manage uncertainties post-Spring Festival, while southbound capital is shifting from high-growth tech stocks to high-dividend assets like telecommunications and banks[1] Support Levels - Short-term adjustments are expected to find strong support in the 5100-5250 point range, which aligns with the 250-day moving average and the starting point of the 2025 market rally[1] Economic Indicators - Fixed asset investment has decreased by 3.80% year-on-year[5] - Retail sales have increased by 0.90% year-on-year[5] - Exports have risen by 6.60% year-on-year[5] - M2 money supply growth stands at 8.54%[5] Asset Performance - For the week of January 17 to January 24, the CSI 300 index fell by 0.63%, the Hang Seng Index by 0.36%, and the S&P 500 by 0.36%[2] - In commodities, WTI crude oil increased by 2.75%, while SHFE rebar fell by 0.66%[2] Inventory Levels - Current crude oil inventory is at 44,684 million tons, up by 44,935 million tons from the previous week[3] - Copper inventory has increased by 213,515 tons to 145,342 tons[3] Fund Behavior - The latest data shows a decrease in long positions in the U.S. dollar by 1,926 contracts, while short positions increased by 762 contracts[3] - Gold ETF holdings rose to 3,493 million ounces, an increase of 30,000 ounces[3] Risk Factors - Potential risks include volatility in overseas markets and uncertainties in domestic policy execution[4]