证券研究报告 | 2025年09月15日 社会服务行业双周报（第 114 期） 优于大市 预制菜国标草案通过审查，港股高教板块行情强势 板块复盘：消费者服务板块报告期内上涨 0.69%，跑赢大盘 0.13pct。报告 期内（2025 年 9 月 1 日-2025 年 9 月 14 日），国信社服板块涨幅居前的股 票为宇华教育（43.14%）、新高教集团（23.85%）、中教控股（22.81%）、 长白山（14.77%）、岭南控股（14.77%）、凯撒旅业、海伦司、大连圣亚、 希教国际控股、张家界。国信社服板块跌幅居前的股票为东方甄选 （-16.65%）、奈雪的茶（-16.33%）、西藏旅游（-11.95%）、科德教育（-11.10%）、 全聚德（-9.93%）、科锐国际、中国东方教育、兰生股份、粉笔、同道猎聘。 行业与公司动态：预制菜国标草案通过审查，首次明确不添加防腐剂并强制 餐饮门店披露使用情况。高德地图推出"扫街榜"，基于真实用户行为动态 更新餐饮酒店景区榜单，上线首日用户突破 4000 万。哈啰出行发布 Robotaxi 战略及量产车型 HR1，计划两年内计划实现规模化无人驾驶运营。幸运咖门 店数突破 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the food and beverage sector [1][4][5]. Core Views - High-end liquor prices continue to face pressure, with a focus on the performance during the traditional peak season [2][10]. - The beer industry is awaiting demand recovery, with recommendations for leading brands like Yanjing Beer and China Resources Beer [13][14]. - The overall food and beverage sector saw a 1.21% increase in the week of September 8 to September 12, 2025, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.31 percentage points [19][20]. Summary by Sections 1. Liquor Industry - High-end liquor prices, including Feitian Moutai and Wuliangye, have decreased, while the price of Gaoduzhongjiu has remained stable [11][12]. - The report suggests that the traditional double festival consumption atmosphere has not yet gained momentum, leading to weak demand [2][11]. - Recommendations include focusing on companies with strong anti-cyclical performance, such as Shanxi Fenjiu and Gujing Gongjiu, and those with strong cyclical attributes like Luzhou Laojiao [12][2]. 2. Beer Industry - The beer sector is experiencing healthy inventory levels and is expected to see demand recovery as regulatory impacts on consumption fade [13][14]. - Recommendations include Yanjing Beer and China Resources Beer, which are positioned well for growth [13][14]. 3. Snack and Seasoning Products - The snack industry is shifting from channel-driven growth to category-driven growth, with a focus on strong brands like Wei Long and Yan Jin [14][15]. - The seasoning industry shows signs of improvement, with leading companies like Haitian and Yihai International expected to benefit from a recovery in the restaurant sector [15]. 4. Frozen Foods and Dairy Products - The frozen food sector is seeing a trend towards industrialization, with a focus on pre-prepared dishes [16]. - The dairy sector is expected to recover gradually, with leading companies like Yili and New Hope Dairy showing signs of improvement in 2025 [17]. 5. Beverage Sector - The beverage industry continues to thrive, with a reported 18% year-on-year revenue growth in Q2 2025, driven by demand for sugar-free tea and energy drinks [18]. - Recommendations include leading brands like Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng Beverage, which are expanding their market presence [18].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) is "Outperform the Market" [6][25]. Core Views - The report indicates that increased subsidies have negatively impacted operational performance, with a significant decline in adjusted profit by 89% year-on-year for Q2 2025. Revenue reached 91.84 billion yuan, up 11.7% year-on-year, but operating profit fell to 230 million yuan, down 98% [1][8]. - The core local commerce segment remains the primary source of profit, generating 65.35 billion yuan in revenue, a 7.7% increase year-on-year. However, operating profit in this segment dropped by 75.6% [2][11]. - New business losses have narrowed sequentially, with revenue of 26.49 billion yuan, up 22.8% year-on-year, and an operating loss of 1.88 billion yuan, showing improvement from previous quarters [3][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, adjusted profit decreased by 89% to 1.49 billion yuan, with an adjusted net profit margin of 1.6%, down 14.9 percentage points year-on-year [1][8]. - The core local commerce segment's revenue was 65.35 billion yuan, with a significant decline in operating profit margin to 5.7%, down 19.4 percentage points year-on-year [2][11]. - New business revenue reached 26.49 billion yuan, with a narrowed operating loss of 1.88 billion yuan, improving from previous quarters [3][12]. Revenue Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are as follows: 370.34 billion yuan in 2025, 423.48 billion yuan in 2026, and 485.09 billion yuan in 2027, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 9.7%, 14.3%, and 14.5% [5][22]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are -7.71 billion yuan in 2025, 31.76 billion yuan in 2026, and 46.57 billion yuan in 2027 [5][22]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the competitive landscape is intensifying, leading to increased strategic investments by the company to maintain market leadership and brand recognition [3][20]. - The company plans to focus on core areas and expand its supermarket business while exiting underperforming regions [3][12].

证券研究报告 | 2025年09月15日 宏观经济宏观月报 8 月经济超预期回落，政策加码窗口打开 2025 年 9 月 15 日国家统计局发布 2025 年 8 月份经济增长数据，重点关注 的经济增长类数据如下： 1、8 月份，规模以上工业增加值同比增长 5.2%，比 7 月回落 0.5 个百分点； 2、8 月份，社会消费品零售总额 39668 亿元，同比增长 3.4%，比 7 月回落 0.3 个百分点； 3、1-8 月，全国固定资产投资（不含农户）326111 亿元，同比增长 0.5%， 比 1-7 月回落 1.1 个百分点；扣除房地产开发投资，全国固定资产投资同比 增长 4.2%； 4、8 月份，进出口总额 38744 亿元，同比增长 3.5%。其中，出口 23035 亿 元，增长 4.8%；进口 15709 亿元，增长 1.7%； 5、8 月份，全国城镇调查失业率为 5.3%，较上月上升 0.1 个百分点，持平 上年同月。 8 月国内经济增速约 3.8%，明显低于全年经济增速目标值。 基于生产法测算的月度 GDP 同比增速在 8 月份约为 3.8%，较 7 月继续回落 0.5 个百分点，明显低于全年经 ...

2025Q2 盈利能力承压走低。2025Q2，毛利率同比-8.1pct，系骑手补贴增 加及海外业务扩张所致；销售/研发/管理费率各+6.5/+0.3/-0.4pct， 竞争加剧推广投放增加；经调整净利润率 1.6%，同比-14.9pct。 预计第三季度核心本地商业会出现较大规模亏损。考虑到当下竞争加剧现 状，公司持续加大战略性投入，公司核心本地商业业务在第三季度仍将 出现较大规模亏损。一方面，公司会增加激励以确保价格竞争力与行业 领先的配送服务，其次会加大营销投入以强化品牌认知。 证券研究报告 | 2025年09月15日 美团-W（03690.HK） 优于大市 补贴加大拖累经营表现，持续跟踪竞争格局变化 2025Q2经调整溢利同降89%。2025Q2，公司实现收入918.4亿元，同比+11.7%； 经营溢利 2.3 亿元，同比-98.0%，经营利润率为 0.2%，同比-13.4pct；经调 整溢利为 14.9 亿元，同比-89.0%，经调整净利率为 1.6%，同比-14.9pct。 到店业务系核心本地商业的主要盈利来源。2025Q2，核心本地商业收入 653.5 亿元/+7.7%，其中配送服务/佣金/在线营销 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年09月15日 扬杰科技（300373.SZ） 现金收购贝特电子 100%股权，内生与外延增长并进 优于大市 |  | 公司研究·公司快评 |  | 电子·半导体 |  投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 胡剑 | 021-60893306 | hujian1@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980521080001 | | 证券分析师： | 胡慧 | 021-60871321 | huhui2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980521080002 | | 证券分析师： | 叶子 | 0755-81982153 | yezi3@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980522100003 | | 证券分析师： | 张大为 | 021-61761072 | zhangdawei1@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524100002 | | 证券分析师： | 詹浏洋 | 010-88005307 | zhanliuyang@guosen.c ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年09月15日 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2025-09-12 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 3870.59 | 12924.13 | 4521.99 | 14079.22 | 3797.84 | 1338.01 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | -0.12 | -0.42 | -0.57 | -0.25 | -0.53 | 0.90 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 10938.07 | 14271.18 | 6895.76 | 5132.34 | 6750.19 | 1158.07 | 【重点推荐】 宏观与策略 固定收益专题研究:海外债市系列之七-海外央行购债史——欧洲央行篇 行业与公司 商贸零售行业专题:黄金珠宝行业系列专题五-港资珠宝本轮反弹逻辑梳 理：以自我革新顺应行业焕新 【常规内容】 固定收益周报:超长债周报-8 月社融同比转为回落，超长债量升价跌 固定收益周报:公募 REIT ...

港股市场速览 优于大市 市场整体上行，互联网涨幅领先 股价表现：整体显著上行，互联网涨幅领先 本周，恒生指数+3.8%，恒生综指+4.1%。风格方面，大盘（恒生大型股+4.5%） ＞小盘（恒生小型股+2.6%）＞中盘（恒生中型股+2.1%）。 证券研究报告 | 2025年09月14日 概念指数中，表现较强的有：恒生互联网（+7.6%）、恒生科技（+5.3%）； 表现较弱的有：恒生生物科技（-2.3%）、恒生消费（-0.4%）。 国信海外选股策略中，表现较强的是 ROE 策略全天候型（+11.0%）；表现较 弱的是自由现金流 30（+1.0%）。 24 个行业上涨，6 个行业下跌。涨幅居前的行业有：商贸零售（+9.6%）、 计算机（+7.9%）、房地产（+6.8%）、有色金属（+6.5%）、传媒（+6.1%）； 跌幅居前的行业有：电力设备及新能源（-2.3%）、石油石化（-2.2%）、医 药（-1.1%）、国防军工（-1.1%）、家电（-0.4%）。 估值水平：整体显著提升，行业分化较大 本周，恒生指数估值（动态预期 12 个月正数市盈率，后同）+4.9%至 12.3x； 恒生综指估值+3.8%至 12.4x。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the communication industry [5] Core Insights - Oracle's cloud business shows strong growth with a remaining performance obligation (RPO) of $455 billion, a year-over-year increase of 359% [11][12] - The AI infrastructure sector is rapidly evolving, highlighted by NVIDIA's launch of the Rubin CPX GPU, which enhances performance for large context AI models [26][31] - Taiwanese AI server ODM manufacturers reported a monthly revenue of NT$121.39 billion in August, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 16.71% [34][41] Summary by Sections Industry News Tracking - Oracle's RPO reached $455 billion, up $317 billion from the previous quarter, driven by significant contracts with major clients like OpenAI and NVIDIA [11][12] - NVIDIA introduced the Rubin CPX GPU, designed for high-performance AI tasks, featuring 30 petaFLOPS of computing power and 128GB of GDDR7 memory [26][31] - Taiwanese ODM manufacturers, including Hon Hai and Quanta, reported strong revenue growth, with TSMC's August revenue increasing by 33.84% year-over-year [34][41] Investment Recommendations - Continuous focus on AI computing infrastructure development is advised, with recommendations for companies involved in optical devices and communication equipment [72] - The three major telecom operators are considered important assets for dividend allocation, with stable operations and increasing dividend payouts [72] - Key recommended stocks for the upcoming week include China Mobile, Zhongji Xuchuang, ZTE, and Yinvik [72]

证券研究报告 | 2025年09月14日 中信金融资产（02799.HK）2025 年中报点评 中性 收入利润增加，信用成本上升 上半年收入和净利润均增加。中信金融资产 2025 年上半年实现营业收入（含 联营及合营公司业绩）402 亿元，同比增长 19.9%；实现持续经营活动净利 润 55 亿元，同比增长 19.7%；实现归属于母公司普通股股东净利润 62 亿元， 同比增长 15.7%。上半年年化 ROE 为 21.1%，ROA 为 1.1%。 资产规模较年初小幅增长。公司 2025 年二季度末资产总额 1.01 万亿元，较 年初增长 2.7%，同比下降 4.2%。从分部经营业绩来看，期末不良资产经营 分部总资产较年初增长 2.7%，资产管理和投资分部总资产较年初增长 1.6%。 其中，上半年收购处置业务资产、纾困盘活业务资产、股权业务资产较年初 增长，收购重组业务资产收缩，主要是公司主动调整资产结构，持续压降收 购重组业务资产规模。 不良资产经营分部收入增长，资产管理和投资分部收入下降。从分部经营业 绩来看，上半年不良资产经营分部收入同比增长 58.3%，主要得益于对中国 银行和光大银行投资确认的约 21 ...