证券研究报告 | 2025年10月31日 金雷股份（300443.SZ） 优于大市 锻造业务需求旺盛，铸造业务进入收获期 前三季度收入利润大幅增长，业绩拐点明确。前三季度公司实现营收 21.19 亿元，同比+61.35%；归母净利润 3.05 亿元，同比+104.59%。25 年前三季度 公司毛利率 24.63%，同比+1.88pct.；净利率 14.41%，同比+3.05pct.。今 年以来，公司风电主轴及其他精密轴类销量显著增长，带动业绩上行。 三季度收入持续增长，盈利能力稳步提升。三季度公司实现营收 8.36 亿元， 同比+39.36%，环比+7.49%；归母净利润 1.17 亿元，同比+56.50%，环比 -10.76%。三季度毛利率 26.41%，同比+1.55pct.，环比+1.58pct.；净利率 14.07%，同比+1.54pct.，环比-2.88pct.。随着公司东营铸造产能稼动率的 提升，公司整体盈利能力稳步向上。 铸造主轴产能持续释放，东营子公司扭亏为盈。2023 年以来，公司在风电铸 造类产品领域持续投入，已具备全流程生产 5-30MW 风电主轴、轮毂、底座、 连体轴承座等大型风机铸件 ...

- The report tracks the market trend by monitoring stocks that have reached new highs, using the 250-day high distance as a key metric[11][12] - The 250-day high distance is calculated as $ 1 - \frac{Closet}{ts\_max(Close, 250)} $ where Closet is the latest closing price and ts_max(Close, 250) is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days[11] - As of October 31, 2025, the 250-day high distances for major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and others are provided, with values ranging from 1.53% to 8.03%[12][13][15] Model and Factor Construction - **Model Name**: 250-day High Distance Model - **Construction Idea**: The model tracks the distance of the latest closing price from the highest closing price in the past 250 days to identify stocks that are reaching new highs[11] - **Construction Process**: - Calculate the 250-day high distance using the formula $ 1 - \frac{Closet}{ts\_max(Close, 250)} $ - Identify stocks with the smallest 250-day high distance, indicating they are at or near their 250-day high[11] - **Evaluation**: The model is effective in identifying stocks that are leading the market trend by reaching new highs[11] Factor Construction - **Factor Name**: Stable New High Stocks - **Construction Idea**: The factor aims to identify stocks that not only reach new highs but do so with stable price movements and strong momentum[26] - **Construction Process**: - Filter stocks that have reached a 250-day high in the past 20 trading days - Further filter based on analyst attention, relative strength, price stability, and trend continuation - Use metrics such as the sum of absolute daily returns over the past 120 days and the average 250-day high distance over the past 120 days to score and rank stocks[26][28] - **Evaluation**: This factor helps in identifying stocks with strong and stable upward trends, which are likely to continue performing well[26] Backtest Results - **250-day High Distance Model**: - Shanghai Composite Index: 1.53% - Shenzhen Component Index: 2.53% - CSI 300: 2.26% - CSI 500: 2.89% - CSI 1000: 1.85% - CSI 2000: 2.22% - ChiNext Index: 4.11% - STAR 50 Index: 8.03%[12][13][15] - **Stable New High Stocks Factor**: - Number of stocks reaching new highs in the past 20 days: 1077 - Highest number of new high stocks by industry: Electronics, Machinery, Basic Chemicals - Highest proportion of new high stocks by industry: Non-ferrous Metals, Coal, Steel - Highest number of new high stocks by index: CSI 2000, CSI 1000, CSI 500, CSI 300, ChiNext Index, STAR 50 Index[19][20][29]

证券研究报告 | 2025年10月31日 智微智能（001339.SZ） 优于大市 AI 云、边、端全面布局，切入具身智能控制器领域 25Q3 净利润承压，智算业务受需求侧扰动。公司发布 25 年三季报，25 年前 三季度实现营业收入 29.73 亿，同比+6.89%；归母净利润 1.31 亿元，同比 +59.30%；扣非归母净利润 1.08 亿元，同比+54.28%。分季度来看，25Q3 公 司实现营业收入 10.26 亿元，同比-6.8%、环比-6.29%；归母净利润 0.29 亿 元，同比+13.67%、环比-50.94%；扣非归母净利润 0.20 亿元，同比-0.8%、 环比-60.46%，25Q3 利润端承压，主要由于 25Q3 受国内大客户采购节奏及新 产品验证进度影响，智算业务增长放缓。 毛利率环比下滑，费用率环比上升。公司 25Q3 实现毛利率 18.4%，同比+2.6 个 pct、环比-9.1 个 pct，主要由于高毛利率智算业务 25Q3 受需求侧扰动， 增长放缓。25Q3 公司期间费用率为 11.1%，环比+0.3 个 pct，其中销售、管 理、研发、财务费用率分别为 2.1%、3.2% ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年10月31日 顺丰控股（002352.SZ） 优于大市 盈利能力短期承压，聚焦长期投资价值 2025 年三季度公司业绩阶段性承压。2025 年前三季度营收 2252.6 亿元（同 比+8.9%），归母净利润 83.1 亿元（同比+9.1%），扣非归母净利润 67.8 亿 元（同比+0.5%）；2025 年三季度单季营收 784.0 亿元（同比+8.2%），归母 净利润 25.7 亿元（同比-8.5%），扣非归母净利润 22.3 亿元（同比-14.2%）。 激活经营策略带动三季度速运物流业务收入增速继续回升，但公司盈利能力 表现阶段性承压。1）收入方面，受益于公司施行激活经营策略，2025 年三 季度公司速运物流业务收入同比增长 14.4%，增速环比仍有提升，其中时效 快递业务收入实现了高个位数的较快增长。2）盈利能力方面，由于公司采 取"先有后优"策略以及前置投入核心资源，导致短期件量规模增长很快但 盈利能力会阶段性承压，因此看到三季度公司速运物流业务件量同比增长 33%，但是毛利率同比减少 1.65 pct 至 12.49%，归母净利率同比减少 0.6 pct 至 3.28%。四 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年10月31日 四方股份（601126.SH） 优于大市 网内外业务景气共振，固态变压器有望打开新空间 前三季度经营业绩稳健，减值影响利润增速。前三季度公司实现营收 61.32 亿元，同比+20.39%；归母净利润 7.04 亿元，同比+15.57%。2025 年前三季 度公司毛利率 30.77%，同比-2.93pct.；净利率 11.47%，同比-0.51pct.。 前三季度公司计提信用减值损失 0.42 亿元，计提资产减值损失 0.57 亿元。 三季度业绩同比+23%，网内交付带动毛利率环比上行。三季度公司实现营收 21.11 亿元，同比+30.65%，环比-3.69%；归母净利润 2.28 亿元，同比+22.78%， 环比-2.92%。三季度公司毛利率 31.24%，同比-2.97pct.，环比+1.83pct.； 净利率 10.77%，同比-0.70pct.，环比+0.07pct.。 三季度以来网内交付修复，网外业务保持较快增长。2025 年上半年公司电网 自动化实现营收 17.26 亿元，同比+2.21%，毛利率 40.83%，同比-2.80pct.； 电厂及工业自动化实现 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][15][19] Core Views - The company has shown a continuous acceleration in revenue growth, with a reported revenue of 1.303 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.51%. The net profit attributable to the parent company reached 351 million yuan, up 14.55% year-on-year [1][7] - The company is focusing on AI functionality research and product innovation, which is driving its revenue growth and global expansion [1][3] - The overseas market presents significant growth potential, with the company's overseas revenue currently accounting for about one-third of total revenue [3][15] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 460 million yuan, an increase of 27.49% year-on-year, and a net profit of 116 million yuan, up 34.93% year-on-year [1][7] - The company’s C-end revenue from intelligent text recognition reached 385 million yuan in Q3, growing by 32.40%, while B-end revenue was 21 million yuan, up 19.64% [2] User Growth - The company has seen a significant increase in its user base, with monthly active users reaching 189 million, a growth of 12.50%, and paid users reaching approximately 9.27 million, an increase of 35.18% [2] Financial Forecast - The company is expected to maintain its revenue growth trajectory, with projected revenues of 1.757 billion yuan, 2.161 billion yuan, and 2.648 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. Corresponding net profits are forecasted to be 486 million yuan, 595 million yuan, and 725 million yuan [4][15]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4]. Core Insights - The company has experienced pressure on net profit in Q3 2025, with revenue of 1.026 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.8% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 6.29%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 29 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.67% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 50.94% [8][4]. - The company is strategically positioned in the AI cloud, edge, and endpoint sectors, focusing on embodied intelligent controllers. It has launched various products, including the AI Box and the intelligent controller, which have shown significant progress in the robotics field [3][16]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.973 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.89%, and a net profit of 131 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 59.30% [8][4]. - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 18.4%, a year-on-year increase of 2.6 percentage points but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 9.1 percentage points, primarily due to demand-side disruptions affecting the high-margin intelligent computing business [2][12]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting revenues of 46.93 billion yuan, 53.27 billion yuan, and 59.60 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 2.21 billion yuan, 2.69 billion yuan, and 3.29 billion yuan [4][17]. Business Strategy Summary - The company has initiated a comprehensive layout in AI cloud, edge, and endpoint sectors, providing full lifecycle services for AI computing, including hardware supply and scheduling [3][16]. - The company has made significant advancements in the robotics sector, particularly with the launch of the intelligent controller, which integrates multi-modal perception and high-precision motion control capabilities [3][16].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][12][15] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 780 million yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, ending a five-quarter decline in revenue. The improvement in the pre-mixed liquor business and the contribution from the whiskey segment were noted as key factors [1][10] - The gross margin remained stable, while sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios increased by 3.2, 0.5, 0.1, and -0.1 percentage points respectively, primarily due to the initial development phase of the whiskey business [2][11] - The company has actively improved accounts receivable management, resulting in a significant reduction of 65.5% in accounts receivable balance compared to the beginning of the year, indicating improved revenue quality [2][11] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 160 million yuan, down 6.8% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was also 160 million yuan, down 5.4% year-on-year [1][10] - The revenue from the liquor business in Q3 was 680 million yuan, up 1.5% year-on-year, with expectations of a narrowing decline in pre-mixed liquor revenue and increased contributions from the whiskey business [1][10] Investment Recommendations and Profit Forecasts - The company is expected to see a recovery in revenue growth in the pre-mixed liquor segment in Q4 2025, supported by improved channel inventory management and the introduction of new products [3][12] - The revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 3.04 billion, 3.30 billion, and 3.56 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 730 million, 820 million, and 911 million yuan [3][12][14] - The current price-to-earnings ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 36, 32, and 29 times respectively, reflecting the company's strong market position and growth potential in the whiskey segment [3][12][15]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company has shown significant growth in revenue and net profit, with a year-on-year increase of 39.38% in revenue to 12.708 billion yuan and a 54.76% increase in net profit to 5.110 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025 [1] - The strong performance is attributed to the growth in proprietary trading, improvements in brokerage and investment banking services, and the strategic focus on "large wealth, large investment banking, and large institutions" [1][3] - The company has adjusted its asset structure, reducing bond investments while increasing equity investments, which is expected to support future earnings [1] Summary by Sections Proprietary Investment - In Q3 2025, proprietary investment revenue grew by 54.7% to 6.195 billion yuan, becoming the primary driver of profit growth [1] - The financial investment scale was 225.3 billion yuan, with a slight decrease of 5.7% quarter-on-quarter due to asset structure adjustments [1] Brokerage Business - The brokerage business saw a year-on-year growth of 49% to 2.381 billion yuan in Q3 2025 [2] - The total number of customer accounts reached 3.139 million, an increase of 7.52% since the beginning of the year, with total custodial assets amounting to 959.3 billion yuan, up 9.21% [2] Investment Banking - Investment banking revenue increased by 41% to 1.171 billion yuan in Q3 2025, with a notable rise in equity underwriting and a dramatic increase in refinancing scale [2] - The company’s market share in equity underwriting reached 1.61%, with refinancing amounting to 12.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of over 15 times [2] Asset Management and Credit Business - Asset management revenue decreased by 4.33% to 0.973 billion yuan in Q3 2025, while the entrusted asset management scale was 233.78 billion yuan, up 7.9% [3] - Interest income fell by 15.16% due to increased interest expenses [3] Financial Forecasts - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 5.819 billion yuan, 5.988 billion yuan, and 6.102 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 73.7%, 2.9%, and 1.9% respectively [3][4] - The projected PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 16.6, 16.1, and 15.8, while the PB ratios are 1.2, 1.2, and 1.1 [3][4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][10][14] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 4.22 billion yuan for Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 380 million yuan, a decrease of 12.7% year-on-year [1][8] - The beer business experienced a decline in volume but an increase in price, with Q3 beer revenue up 0.6% year-on-year, despite a 0.7% drop in sales volume [1][8] - The company is focusing on enhancing its high-end product offerings, with high-end product revenue increasing by 3.7% year-on-year, and its share of high-end products (priced above 8 yuan) rising to 58.1% [1][8] - The company is increasing its marketing expenses to stimulate sales, leading to a rise in sales and management expense ratios [9][10] - The company maintains a strong cash flow position, with operating cash flow increasing by 12.6% year-on-year and cash reserves reaching 3.4 billion yuan [2][9] Financial Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are maintained at 14.73 billion, 15.03 billion, and 15.35 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.6%, 2.0%, and 2.1% respectively [10][12] - The net profit forecasts for the same period are adjusted to 1.21 billion, 1.26 billion, and 1.31 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 8.9%, 4.0%, and 4.0% respectively [10][12] - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected to be 21, 21, and 20 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [10][12]