证券研究报告 | 2025年09月09日 圣晖集成（603163.SH） 优于大市 以工程赋能 AI 全产业链，持续开拓海外新市场 圣晖集成：洁净室工程专业服务商。公司是洁净室工程专业服务商，具备 EPCO 工程全过程服务能力，为半导体、光电、医药生物、云计算中心等先进制造 领域提供定制化工程服务，拥有丰富的工程实施经验。公司系是台资企业， 根据同业竞争承诺，母公司聚焦中国台湾地区的洁净室工程业务，而公司在 中国台湾地区以外的所有市场的开展工程业务经营。 电子工业精密化推动全球洁净室市场增长。洁净室工程是为精密制造提供受 控环境的关键环节，电子工业精密化是技术与市场共同推动下的必然趋势， 工艺制程尺寸缩小对生产环境的要求持续提高，推动全球洁净室市场持续增 长。2025年全球洁净室市场规模预计为100.4亿美元，到2030年将达到141.6 亿美元，CAGR 为 7.1%。 AI 全产业链产能建设需求快速释放。随着生成式 AI、大模型训练及推理应 用的普及，AI 算力需求呈指数级增长，大幅推升全球范围内人工智能服务器 建设需求。美国先进制程芯片产能加速建设以响应旺盛的算力需求，台积电 规划在美国亚利桑那州投资 ...

Macro and Strategy - The stock market shows a recovery trend, with long-term stock returns expected to outperform bonds and commodities, albeit with higher volatility [11][12][13] - Simple asset allocation strategies can reduce volatility while achieving higher returns, with historical annualized returns of 8.1% for simple strategies and 9.8% for enhanced strategies [11][12][13] - The necessity of asset allocation is emphasized due to the significant volatility of the stock market, with historical data showing a mean annual volatility of 83% since 1990 [11][12][13] Food and Beverage Industry - The food and beverage sector shows signs of stabilization and structural differentiation, with a revenue growth of 2.5% in Q1 and 2.4% in Q2 of 2025 [14][15] - The liquor segment is under pressure due to regulatory impacts, with major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye experiencing revenue declines, while some companies show signs of recovery [14][15] - The consumer goods segment benefits from inventory reduction and macro policy support, with leading brands in categories like sugar-free tea and functional beverages showing strong growth [15][16] Wind Power Industry - Cumulative public bidding capacity for wind turbines in 2025 is 66.1GW, a decrease of 13% year-on-year, with onshore wind capacity at 62.4GW [19][20] - The average bidding price for onshore wind turbines in 2025 is 1,533 RMB/kW, indicating a competitive pricing environment [19][20] - The wind power sector is expected to see significant growth in both domestic and export markets, with a projected annual installation capacity exceeding 20GW during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [21][22] AIDC Power Equipment Industry - The AIDC power equipment sector is experiencing robust growth driven by increasing demand for data centers, with significant capital expenditures reported by major companies like Alibaba and Tencent [23][24] - Recent performance in the AIDC sector shows strong gains in battery backup power systems and high-voltage direct current technologies [24] - The industry is expected to benefit from technological advancements and increased domestic production capabilities, particularly in the context of AI and data center growth [23][24] Media and Internet Industry - The media sector is experiencing a slight decline, with a 0.66% drop in the industry index, although it outperformed the broader market [29][30] - OpenAI's launch of an AI recruitment platform and advancements in gaming technology are notable developments in the sector [29][30] - The film and gaming sectors are showing signs of recovery, with significant box office performance and popular game releases contributing to industry growth [30][31] Electronics Industry - The electronics sector is witnessing a "Davis double-click" trend, with strong performance in AR glasses and foldable screens [32][34] - The semiconductor industry is experiencing growth driven by increased demand for AI applications, with companies like Broadcom reporting significant revenue increases [34][35] - The market for passive components is expected to expand due to the rising power demands of AI servers, leading to a need for upgraded components [33][34]

证券研究报告 | 2025年09月08日 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2025-09-05 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 3812.51 | 12590.56 | 4460.32 | 13658.45 | 3723.10 | 1268.55 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | 1.23 | 3.89 | 2.17 | 2.72 | 4.72 | 3.38 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 9790.61 | 13255.96 | 6641.66 | 4622.83 | 6719.92 | 747.41 | $$\overline{{{\overline{{\mathbb{M}}}}}}\cong\pm\overline{{{\mathbb{M}}}}$$ 【常规内容】 宏观与策略 宏观专题:大象转身——房地产视角下的宏观经济 宏观周报:宏观经济宏观周报-高频指标走势继续放缓 固 定 收 益 快 评 : 可 交 换 私 募 ...

超长债周报 股债跷跷板延续 核心观点 固定收益周报 超长债复盘：上周债市先反弹再下跌。度过月末资金面继续转松，然后 股债跷跷板延续，周二到周四股市连续三天大跌，债市走强，周五股市 "阳包阴"，债市转为大跌。成交方面，上周超长债交投活跃度小幅下 降，交投仍非常活跃。利差方面，上周超长债期限利差走阔，品种利差 小幅上升。 超长债投资展望： 30 年国债：截至 9 月 5 日，30 年国债和 10 年国债利差为 28BP，处于历 史偏低水平。从国内经济数据来看，7 月经济依然面临下行压力。我们 测算的 7 月国内 GDP 同比增速约 4.3%，较今年上半年的增速大幅下滑。 通胀方面，7 月 CPI 为 0.0%，PPI-3.6%，通缩风险依存。我们认为，短 期债市会不断面临预期和现实的博弈，10 年期国债在【1.65%，1.8%】 区间震荡。一方面，现实基本面依然偏弱，对债市形成支撑；另一方面， "反内卷"的确是当前政策的重要抓手，投资者通缩担忧有所消散，再 叠加股市气势如虹，长期宏观叙事出现变化，预期和情绪对债市产生压 制。当前 30 年国债期限利差依然偏低，期限利差保护度有限。 20 年国开债：截至 9 月 5 ...

2025年09月08日 证券研究报告 | 风电产业链双周度跟踪（9月第1期） 行业研究 · 行业周报 电力设备新能源 投资评级：优于大市（维持评级） 证券分析师：王蔚祺 010-88005313 wangweiqi2@guosen.com.cn S0980520080003 证券分析师：王晓声 010-88005231 wangxiaosheng@guosen.com.cn S0980523050002 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 • 海风方面，25年上半年江苏、广东重大项目陆续迎来开工。二季度进入交付旺季；25年是国管海风开发元年，预计规划、竞配、招标、政策下半年有望落地。"十五五"期间年均海风装机 有望超20GW，远超"十四五"水平。陆风方面，25年行业装机有望达100GW创历史新高，年初以来零部件企业迎来量价齐增，全年业绩有望大幅增长；上半年主机企业国内制造盈利磨底， 随着涨价后订单的陆续交付，三季度交付端将迎来单价和毛利率双重修复。中国风机出海方兴未艾，25-26年新增订单保持高增，进一步提供利润弹性。 【投资建议】 • 建议关注三大方向：1）出口布局领先的管桩、海缆龙头；2）国内盈 ...

2025年09月08日 证券研究报告 | AIDC电力设备/电网产业链双周度跟踪（9月第1期） 行业研究 · 行业周报 电力设备新能源 投资评级：优于大市（维持评级） 证券分析师：王蔚祺 010-88005313 wangweiqi2@guosen.com.cn S0980520080003 证券分析师：王晓声 010-88005231 wangxiaosheng@guosen.com.cn S0980523050002 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 • 8月29日，阿里巴巴发布发布2026财年第一季度（自然年2025年第二季度）财报，本季度公司在AI+云的资本开支达到387亿元，同比+220%，环比+57%；上半年资本开支达到633亿元， 同比+172%。8月13日，腾讯发布2025年第二季度财报，第二季度资本开支为191亿元，同比+119%，环比-31%；上半年资本开支466亿元，同比+102%。AI投资维持增长趋势，国内外数 据中心建设需求旺盛，利好AIDC电力设备产业链相关标的。 • 近两周AIDC电力设备板块表现分化，涨幅前三分别为电池后备电源BBU（+14.9%）、高压直流HVDC ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the company [4][13]. Core Views - The company demonstrated stable performance with an 8% increase in net profit and a 14% increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, achieving revenue of 25.1 billion yuan and net profit of 1.1 billion yuan [1][7]. - Despite a 3% decrease in sales area, the company achieved a 20% increase in sales amount, reaching 53.4 billion yuan, marking its entry into the top ten of the industry [1][9]. - The company has strategically acquired 16 quality projects with a total land cost of 49.2 billion yuan, all located in first- and second-tier cities, with significant investments in Beijing and Shanghai [1][9]. Financial Performance - The company has successfully reduced costs, with sales, management, and financial expenses decreasing by 15%, 5%, and 4% respectively [2][11]. - The average financing cost for new domestic and foreign financing in the first half of 2025 was 2.7%, significantly lower than at the end of 2024 [2][11]. - The company’s financial status remains robust, with a total unsold value of approximately 320 billion yuan, 69% of which is concentrated in economically developed regions [1][9]. Earnings Forecast and Financial Metrics - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 56 billion yuan and net profits of 1.1 billion yuan in 2025, with corresponding EPS of 0.08 yuan and PE ratios of 17.7 [2][14]. - The report outlines a gradual recovery in revenue and profit margins, with expected EBIT margins of 6.5% in 2025 and a net asset return (ROE) of 2% [3][14].

证券研究报告 | 2025年09月08日 海外收入同比+139%，网外收入占比达到 46%。上半年公司实现国内收入 222.56 亿元，同比+15.64%，毛利率 27.04%；海外收入 19.87 亿元，同比 +139.18%，毛利率 19.83%。上半年公司实现网内收入 130.71 亿元，同比 +15.56%，网外收入 111.41 亿元，同比+24.72%，网外收入占比达到 46%。 上半年新签订单同比+23%，拟进行中期分红。上半年公司新签合同 354.32 亿元，同比+23.46%；其中，国网公司系统外业务合同占比超 50%，国际合同 同比增长超 200%。公司拟进行中期分红，每股派发现金股利 0.147 元（含税）， 合计派发现金红利 11.75 亿元，占上半年公司归母净利润 45.72%。 技术创新持续引领，海外市场不断突破。上半年公司国际业务拓展取得新突 破，沙特、南美等市场放量增长，落地沙特柔直换流阀等重大项目，智能用 电及调相机业务进入巴西市场，配网运维业务应用于智利市场。 国电南瑞（600406.SH） 优于大市 收入利润稳健增长，海外与网外业务持续突破 上半年业绩稳健增长，业务结构影 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年09月08日 风险提示：国内外风电装机需求不及预期；行业竞争加剧；国际贸易保护加 剧；原材料价格上涨。 投资建议：维持盈利预测，维持 "优于大市"评级。 时代新材（600458.SH）——2025 年中报点评 优于大市 风机叶片显著放量，新材料业务蓄势待发 2025 年上半年业绩 3.0 亿元，同比+37%。2025 年上半年，公司实现营业收 入 92.6 亿元，同比+7%；归母净利润 3.0 亿元，同比+37%；扣非归母净利润 2.3 亿元，同比+16%，扣非增速低于归母增速的原因是上半年发生 0.6 亿元 汇兑损失；综合毛利率 16.1%，同比-0.4pct；净利率 3.6%，同比+0.9pct。 单季度来看，2025 年第二季度公司实现营业收入 51.0 亿元，同比+14%，环 比+23%；归母净利润 1.52 亿元，同比+49%，环比基本持平；扣非归母净利 润 1.41 亿元，同比+57%，环比+52%；综合毛利率 16.6%，同比+0.4pct，环 比+1.0pct；净利率 3.3%，同比+1.0pct，环比-0.7pct。 轨交与工业工程业务受产能迁移拖累。2025 年 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The food and beverage industry in H1 2025 shows signs of stabilization in overall volume and structural differentiation, with revenue growth of +2.5% in Q1 and +2.4% in Q2 year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by -2.1% in Q2 [4][5] - The liquor sector is experiencing a consensus on deceleration, with many companies entering an adjustment phase. In Q2, major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye managed to achieve positive growth despite overall revenue declines in the sector [4][6] - The consumer goods sector benefits from proactive inventory reduction and macroeconomic policy support, leading to improved operations for leading companies in H1 2025. High-growth segments include sugar-free tea, functional beverages, and snacks [4][6] Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - In H1 2025, the liquor industry saw a revenue of 330.42 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.19% year-on-year, while profits fell by 10.93% to 87.69 billion yuan. The number of large-scale enterprises decreased by over 100 compared to the previous year [7][8] - Major liquor companies reported a total revenue of 244.04 billion yuan, down 1.5% year-on-year, with a net profit of 95.21 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.3% [7][8] - High-end liquor companies achieved a total revenue of 160.3 billion yuan, up 6.2% year-on-year, accounting for 65.7% of total revenue from listed companies [7][8] Consumer Goods Sector - The consumer goods sector is showing signs of recovery, with leading companies like Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng Beverage reporting strong revenue growth due to product innovation and channel expansion [4][6] - The snack segment is experiencing cost pressures due to rising prices of raw materials, but some companies are improving profitability through scale efficiency and quality enhancement [4][6] - Investment recommendations highlight quality leaders such as Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Dongpeng Beverage as key targets for potential investment opportunities [4][6]