Investment Rating - The investment rating for Microsoft is "Outperform" [5] Core Insights - Microsoft reported a strong overall performance in FY26Q2, with total revenue of $81.3 billion (up 17% YoY), operating profit of $38.3 billion (up 21% YoY), and net profit of $35.4 billion (up 47% YoY) [1][9] - Azure cloud growth is showing signs of marginal slowdown, with guidance for next quarter's capital expenditure expected to decrease sequentially [2][3] - The company is prioritizing resource allocation towards internal AI products like Copilot rather than cloud business, raising concerns about returns [2] - Microsoft cloud revenue surpassed $50 billion for the first time, with Azure growing 39% YoY, and commercial bookings increasing by 228% [2][6] - The productivity and business processes segment saw revenue of $34.1 billion (up 16% YoY), driven by M365 Copilot and E5 [7] - Capital expenditures reached a record high of $37.5 billion (up 66% YoY), with guidance indicating a sequential decline in FY26Q3 [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for the quarter was $81.3 billion, with a breakdown of $34.1 billion from productivity and business processes (up 16% YoY), $32.9 billion from intelligent cloud (up 29% YoY), and $14.3 billion from personal computing (down 3% YoY) [1][10] Business Segments - Intelligent Cloud: Revenue of $32.9 billion (up 29% YoY), with Azure growing 39% YoY, exceeding guidance of 37% [10] - Productivity and Business Processes: Revenue of $34.1 billion (up 16% YoY), with M365 commercial cloud revenue growing 17% YoY [7] - Personal Computing: Revenue of $14.3 billion (down 3% YoY), with mixed performance across segments [10] Future Outlook - Revenue guidance for the next quarter includes intelligent cloud revenue of $34.1-34.4 billion (up 27%-28% YoY) and productivity and business processes revenue of $34.25-34.55 billion (up 15%-16% YoY) [3] - Operating expenses are expected to be $17.8-17.9 billion, with cost of goods sold projected at $26.65-26.85 billion [3] Valuation Adjustments - Revenue forecasts for FY26-28 have been adjusted to $327.8 billion, $373.9 billion, and $433.2 billion respectively, with net profit estimates revised to $123 billion, $146.5 billion, and $172.1 billion [3]

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月30日 2026年01月31日 金融工程日报 沪指跌近 1%，有色金属板块回调、CPO 方向领涨 核心观点 金融工程日报 市场表现：20260130 大部分指数处于下跌状态，规模指数中中证 2000 指 数表现较好，板块指数中创业板指表现较好，风格指数中沪深 300 成长指数 表现较好。通信、电子、农林牧渔、煤炭、轻工制造行业表现较好，有色金 属、钢铁、食品饮料、房地产、综合金融行业表现较差。光模块(CPO)、光 纤、光通信、大豆、光芯片等概念表现较好，铅锌矿、稀土、黄金珠宝、稀 有金属精选、铜产业等概念表现较差。 市场情绪：20260130 收盘时有 59 只股票涨停，有 61 只股票跌停。昨日涨 停股票今日表现低迷，赚钱效应较弱，收盘收益为-1.14%，昨日跌停股票今 日收盘收益为-0.50%。今日封板率 65%，较前日提升 1%，连板率 10%， 较前日下降 13%，连板率创近一个月新低。 市场资金流向：截至 20260129 两融余额为 27394 亿元，其中融资余额 27222 亿元，融券余额 171 亿元。两融余额占流通市值比重为 2.6%，两融 交易占市场成交额 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural products sector [1][4]. Core Insights - The livestock sector is expected to experience a cyclical recovery, with meat cattle and raw milk prices anticipated to rise due to domestic and international market conditions [3]. - The pig farming sector is supported by capacity control measures, which are likely to enhance cash flow for leading companies, positioning them as attractive investment opportunities [3]. - Poultry supply is expected to stabilize, with leading companies benefiting from demand recovery and higher cash flow returns [3]. - The feed industry is set to gain from deeper industrialization and clear division of labor, allowing leading companies to expand their competitive advantages [3]. - The pet industry is identified as a growth sector benefiting from demographic trends [3]. Summary by Sections Swine - As of January 23, 2026, the price of live pigs is 12.87 CNY/kg, up 1.42% week-on-week, while the price of 7kg piglets is approximately 343.33 CNY/head, up 11.09% week-on-week [1][13]. - The industry is witnessing a controlled reduction in production capacity, which is expected to support profitability for low-cost producers [13]. Poultry - The price of chicken seedlings is 1.63 CNY/bird, down 31.80% week-on-week, while the price of broilers is 7.34 CNY/kg, down 1.08% week-on-week [1][14]. - Supply is slightly increasing, and there is a focus on seasonal consumption recovery [3]. Beef - The price of fattened cattle is 25.66 CNY/kg, up 0.59% week-on-week, and the beef market price is 61.55 CNY/kg, stable week-on-week [2][14]. - A new round of price increases for beef is anticipated, indicating a potential upward trend in the beef cycle [2]. Raw Milk - The average price of raw milk is 3.03 CNY/kg, up 0.33% week-on-week, with expectations for a price turning point in 2026 [2][14]. - The reduction in dairy cow numbers is likely to continue, impacting supply dynamics [2]. Feed - The domestic soybean spot price is 4072 CNY/ton, stable week-on-week, while the soybean meal price is 3186 CNY/ton, up 0.31% week-on-week [2][14]. - The feed industry is expected to strengthen due to favorable supply-demand dynamics [2]. Corn - The domestic corn spot price is 2331 CNY/ton, up 0.30% week-on-week, with a tightening supply-demand balance expected to support moderate price increases [2][14]. Rubber - The price of natural rubber is 15900 CNY/ton, up 1.92% week-on-week, with a positive outlook for the mid-term market [2][14].

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月31日 国信金工主动量化策略表现跟踪： 本周，优秀基金业绩增强组合绝对收益-0.66%，相对偏股混合型基金指数超 额收益 0.10%。本年，优秀基金业绩增强组合绝对收益 8.77%，相对偏股混 合型基金指数超额收益 1.45%。今年以来，优秀基金业绩增强组合在主动股 基中排名 32.95%分位点（1226/3721）。 本周，超预期精选组合绝对收益-1.26%，相对偏股混合型基金指数超额收益 -0.50%。本年，超预期精选组合绝对收益 12.03%，相对偏股混合型基金指 数超额收益 4.72%。今年以来，超预期精选组合在主动股基中排名 14.65% 分位点（545/3721）。 本周，券商金股业绩增强组合绝对收益 1.29%，相对偏股混合型基金指数超 额收益 2.05%。本年，券商金股业绩增强组合绝对收益 11.47%，相对偏股 混合型基金指数超额收益 4.15%。今年以来，券商金股业绩增强组合在主动 股基中排名 16.69%分位点（621/3721）。 本周，成长稳健组合绝对收益-1.73%，相对偏股混合型基金指数超额收益 -0.97%。本年，成长稳健组合绝对收益 12.8 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月31日 港股投资周报 金融股领涨，港股精选组合年内上涨 7.92% 核心观点 金融工程周报 港股精选组合绩效回顾 本周，港股精选组合绝对收益 0.49%，相对恒生指数超额收益-1.89%。 本年，港股精选组合绝对收益 7.92%，相对恒生指数超额收益 1.07%。 港股市场创新高热点板块跟踪 我们根据分析师关注度、股价相对强弱、股价路径平稳性、创新高连续性等 角度在过去 20 个交易日创出过 250 日新高的股票池中筛选出平稳创新高股 票。 近期，中国秦发等股票平稳创出新高。 按照板块来看，创新高股票数量最多的是周期板块，其次为科技、消费、制 造和大金融板块，具体个股信息可参照正文。 港股市场一周回顾 宽基指数方面，本周港股通 50 指数收益最高，累计收益 2.78%；恒生科技 指数收益最低，累计收益-1.38%。 行业指数方面，本周能源业行业收益最高，累计收益 7.44%；医疗保健业行 业收益最低，累计收益-2.72%。 概念板块方面，本周安防监控指数概念板块收益最高，累计收益 27.50%； 卫星导航指数概念板块收益最低，累计收益-9.93%。 金融工程·数量化投资 | ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月30日 优于大市 菜百股份（605599.SH） 2025 年归母净利润预计增长 47%-71%，投资金+金饰品双推动 事项： 公司公告：公司发布 2025 年度业绩预告，预计实现归母净利润 10.6-12.3 亿元，同比增长 47.43%-71.07%， 扣非归母净利润 9.52-11.22 亿元，同比增长 39.16%-64.03%。 国信零售观点：1）单四季度看，预计归母净利润 4.13-5.83 亿元，同比增长 150.48%-253.52%。扣非归母 净利润 3.66-5.36 亿元，同比增长 130.25%-237.08%。2）分产品看，占比较高的贵金属投资产品受益于金 价持续增长、菜百首饰在华北地区的知名度，预计实现较快增长。此外，首饰金在产品创新和消费复苏下 预计亦实现正增长，维持毛利率的韧性。3）实际上，公司投资金毛利率较低，整体收入占比提升对整体 毛利率有所压力。但目前来看，公司投资金产品也在积极创新，开发贺岁金条、IP 联名金条等产品，毛利 率相对较高。此外，首饰金在菜百总店二层开设了"菜百典藏"专区，销售古法、金镶钻等高毛利率产品， 不断推动产品结构优 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the LCD industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The LCD industry is experiencing a stabilization in capacity, with a concentration of market share expected due to the shutdown and sale of production lines by overseas manufacturers. This is anticipated to enhance the pricing power of LCD TV panel producers, leading to improved profitability [6] - The report highlights the growth potential of leading domestic panel manufacturers like BOE Technology Group, which is well-positioned to benefit from China's consumption upgrade and localization trends [6] Market Performance Review - From December 2025 to January 2026, the panel index increased by 11.55%, outperforming major indices such as the Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Component by 5.76 percentage points and 2.53 percentage points, respectively [4] - As of January 20, 2026, the total market capitalization of the A-share panel industry was 604.92 billion yuan, with an overall price-to-book ratio of 1.71x, positioned at the 82.5 percentile of the past five years [4][12] Price & Cost Analysis - In January 2026, the prices of various sizes of LCD TV panels increased, with 32, 43, 50, 55, and 65-inch panels priced at $34, $61, $92, $115, and $163 respectively, reflecting increases of 3.0%, 1.7%, 1.1%, 0.9%, and 0.6% month-over-month [19] - Omdia forecasts further price increases for February 2026, with expected prices of $36, $63, $94, $117, and $165 for the same sizes, indicating month-over-month increases of 5.9%, 3.3%, 2.2%, 1.7%, and 1.2% [19] Supply & Demand Dynamics - In December 2025, the global shipment area for large-sized LCD panels grew by 8.82% year-over-year, with notable increases in shipments for TVs (8.74%), monitors (4.44%), notebooks (13.27%), and tablets (21.30%) [5][27] - The report anticipates a 2.31% increase in global large-sized LCD capacity area in 2024 compared to 2023, with a slight growth forecast for 2025 [5] Performance Review - The global revenue for large-sized LCD panels in December 2025 reached $6.423 billion, marking a month-over-month increase of 15.52% and a year-over-year increase of 4.71% [57] - The report notes that BOE, TCL, and Huike experienced varying revenue growth rates in December 2025, with BOE's revenue at $1.6 billion, reflecting a month-over-month increase of 8.11% [60]

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月30日 磷化工行业专题 优于大市 磷矿石供需紧平衡，新能源贡献增量 湿法磷酸为磷化工产业链核心制备路线。磷化工产业链包含湿法与热法两条 核心技术路线，前者以无机酸分解磷矿石，设备简、能耗低但对磷矿品位要 求高、产品杂质多；后者经黄磷加工制取，适配低品位磷矿、产品质量优但 能耗高、成本高且尾气处理难度大。湿法磷酸或逐步替代高耗能热法工艺。 安全环保政策趋严，落后产能加速退出。"三磷"整治落地，长江经济带磷 矿产能显著压缩。目前环保督察已实现常态化开展，在持续的环保高压下， 磷矿落后产能复产难度大幅提升，且政策鼓励优强企业通过兼并重组等方式 整合中小磷矿，行业供需格局持续优化。 我国磷矿资源禀赋差、环保约束强，国内供给持续趋紧。磷矿石为磷化工产 业的核心基础原料，我国以全球 5%储量支撑近半产量，资源保障压力突出， 稀缺属性持续强化，预计磷矿价格中枢长期高位运行，目前龙头企业磷矿石 毛利率在 80%左右。下游磷肥需求仍为刚性支撑，但占比由 2015 年的 78%降 至 2024 年的 54%；湿法磷酸消费占比从 2021 年的 7%跃升至 2024 年的 17%， 部分得益于新能 ...

事项： 公司公告：公司发布 2025 年度业绩预告，预计实现归母净利润 10.6-12.3 亿元，同比增长 47.43%-71.07%， 扣非归母净利润 9.52-11.22 亿元，同比增长 39.16%-64.03%。 国信零售观点：1）单四季度看，预计归母净利润 4.13-5.83 亿元，同比增长 150.48%-253.52%。扣非归母 净利润 3.66-5.36 亿元，同比增长 130.25%-237.08%。2）分产品看，占比较高的贵金属投资产品受益于金 价持续增长、菜百首饰在华北地区的知名度，预计实现较快增长。此外，首饰金在产品创新和消费复苏下 预计亦实现正增长，维持毛利率的韧性。3）实际上，公司投资金毛利率较低，整体收入占比提升对整体 毛利率有所压力。但目前来看，公司投资金产品也在积极创新，开发贺岁金条、IP 联名金条等产品，毛利 率相对较高。此外，首饰金在菜百总店二层开设了"菜百典藏"专区，销售古法、金镶钻等高毛利率产品， 不断推动产品结构优化。 总体上而言，在金价预期中长期上行的背景下，公司投资金产品持续受益。产品端持续升级，在保持收入 增长的同时支撑公司毛利水平。门店拓展亦稳步推进，超 1 ...

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