证券研究报告 | 2026年01月22日 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2026-01-21 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 4116.94 | 14255.12 | 4723.06 | 15536.42 | 4138.85 | 1535.39 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | 0.08 | 0.70 | 0.08 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 3.53 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 11801.84 | 14204.14 | 6653.30 | 5079.63 | 6512.34 | 1173.11 | $$\overline{{{\mathbb{M}}}}\cong\pm\overline{{{\mathbb{M}}}}$$ 【重点推荐】 行业与公司 创新实业(02788.HK) 海外公司深度报告:蒙东低成本绿电铝，海外项目 助力产能高增长 安琪酵母(600298.SH) 深度报告:深耕中国酵母市场，全球布局逐渐 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [5]. Core Insights - The company is a leader in the Chinese yeast industry and the second-largest yeast producer globally, with a focus on yeast and deep-processing products. It has a total fermentation capacity of 400,000 tons and expects to achieve a revenue of 15.197 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.325 billion yuan in 2024 [1][3]. - The yeast industry is characterized by an oligopolistic market structure, with the top three companies holding over 70% of the market share globally. The company holds a 55% market share in China, leading the domestic market [1][42]. - The company has established a global production and R&D system, enhancing its competitive barriers. It has invested in local production facilities to stabilize supply and mitigate raw material price fluctuations [2][3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has been deeply involved in the yeast industry for 40 years, evolving from a local state-owned enterprise to a global giant. It produces a wide range of products, including bread yeast, yeast extract, and nutritional health products, with sales channels spanning over 160 countries [13][15]. Market Position and Financial Performance - The company has a strong financial outlook, with projected revenues of 16.723 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a 10% year-on-year growth. The net profit is expected to reach 1.585 billion yuan, a 19.6% increase [3][4]. - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve due to declining raw material costs, particularly sugar molasses, which accounts for approximately 40% of total costs [2][27]. Growth Drivers - The company’s growth is supported by two main engines: the expansion of its overseas business, which is expected to increase its revenue share from 28% in 2020 to 38% in 2024, and the rising demand for yeast extract as a natural flavoring agent [2][3]. - The company maintains a robust R&D investment, with a research expense ratio consistently above 4%, which has led to a strong patent portfolio and enhanced bargaining power with downstream customers [2][3]. Industry Characteristics - The yeast industry is capital-intensive, with high barriers to entry due to the significant investment required for production facilities. The company’s capital expenditure per unit capacity is 10-18 times that of the seasoning industry [1][48]. - The price of sugar molasses, a key raw material, is closely linked to white sugar prices and exhibits cyclical fluctuations. The company anticipates a downward trend in sugar molasses prices by 2025, which will support profit recovery [1][56]. Valuation - The report estimates a reasonable valuation range for the company’s stock between 49.98 and 56.79 yuan, indicating a potential premium of 10%-25% compared to the current stock price of 45.33 yuan [5][3].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to Jiangsu Jinzu (600901.SH) [4] Core Insights - The financial leasing industry is undergoing a transformation driven by regulatory changes and strategic upgrades, emphasizing the importance of direct leasing and operational leasing capabilities [1][10] - Jiangsu Jinzu has established a unique business model with a dual-line strategy of "manufacturers + regions" and "retail + technology," which has led to strong financial performance even during macroeconomic adjustments [2][3] - The company's asset quality remains strong, with a non-performing financing lease asset ratio of 0.90% and a provision coverage ratio of 403%, significantly above regulatory requirements [3] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The financial leasing industry in China is shifting from scale expansion to high-quality development, with new regulations aimed at promoting direct leasing and reducing reliance on sale-leaseback models [10][11] - By 2026, financial leasing companies are required to have at least 50% of new business from direct leasing, which is expected to enhance industry concentration and service to the real economy [11][12] Company Overview - Jiangsu Jinzu focuses on equipment leasing and has a strong presence in the clean energy and transportation sectors, which contributed significantly to its revenue [3][49] - The company has a concentrated ownership structure with state-owned capital dominating, providing stability and support for strategic initiatives [29][30] Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, Jiangsu Jinzu reported a revenue of 46.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.15%, driven by asset scale expansion [39] - The net profit for the same period was 24.46 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 9.82%, although the growth rate was lower than revenue due to increased credit impairment losses [39][44] - The company’s net interest income grew by 21.3% to 47.25 billion yuan, indicating strong performance in its core lending operations [44] Asset and Liability Management - Jiangsu Jinzu's total assets reached 1,620.11 billion yuan by Q3 2025, marking an 18.04% increase from the previous year [52] - The company has effectively managed its liabilities, with a significant portion of its funding coming from interbank borrowings, while also optimizing its debt structure to reduce risks [54] Growth Strategy - The company employs a "manufacturers + regional" dual-line strategy to penetrate the small and micro-enterprise market, achieving over 50% of its financing to these segments [27][49] - Jiangsu Jinzu's focus on clean energy and transportation aligns with national policies, positioning it well for future growth [49][54]

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月21日 投资建议：短期看，大单品飞天多渠道触达消费者，精准调控下批价有望保 持相对平稳，我们预计春节动销同比增长。中期看，伴随需求逐步复苏和经 销商培育精品，产品结构仍有升级空间。长期看，公司以消费者为中心，提 升自身和渠道服务能力，仍具有提价期权，品牌溢价或继续提升。维持收入 及盈利预测，2025-2027 年公司营业总收入 1833.0/1842.9/1861.4 亿元，同 比+5.3%/+0.5%/+1.0%；预计归母净利润 904.5/905.0/917.9 亿元，同比 +4.9%/0.0%/+1.4%；当前股价对应 19.2/18.9 倍 26/27 年 PE，75%分红率对 应 2026 年 4%股息率，维持"优于大市"评级。 风险提示：宏观经济及需求复苏不及预期，核心产品价格持续下降；加大费 用投入开拓市场，产品结构升级进程放缓，利润率继续下降。 重点公司盈利预测及投资评级 | 公司 | 公司 | 投资 | 昨收盘 | 总市值 | 归母净利润（亿元） | | PE | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

- The report introduces a quantitative model for estimating dividend points in stock indices, which is crucial for accurately assessing the premium or discount in stock index futures contracts. The model considers the impact of component stock dividends on index points, which is essential for futures pricing[12][41][42] - The model calculates the dividend points of an index during the period from the current date (t) to the futures contract expiration date (T) using the formula: $$ \text{Dividend Points} = \sum_{n=1}^{N} \left( \frac{\text{Dividend Amount of Component Stock}}{\text{Total Market Value of Component Stock}} \times \text{Weight of Component Stock} \times \text{Index Closing Price} \right) $$ Here, \(N\) represents the number of component stocks, and the formula only includes stocks with ex-dividend dates between \(t\) and \(T\)[41][42][45] - The model refines the estimation of component stock weights by transitioning from approximate monthly data to precise daily data. The weight of a stock on a given day is calculated as: $$ W_{n,t} = \frac{w_{n0} \times (1 + r_n)}{\sum_{i=1}^{N} w_{i0} \times (1 + r_i)} $$ where \(w_{n0}\) is the weight of stock \(n\) on the last disclosed date, and \(r_n\) is the non-adjusted return of stock \(n\) from the last disclosed date to the current date[48][49] - The model estimates the dividend amount for stocks that have not disclosed their dividend plans by predicting net profit and dividend payout ratios. The dividend amount is calculated as: $$ \text{Dividend Amount} = \text{Net Profit} \times \text{Dividend Payout Ratio} $$ Net profit is predicted using historical profit distribution patterns, while the dividend payout ratio is estimated based on historical averages[50][53][56] - The model predicts ex-dividend dates using a linear extrapolation method based on the stability of historical intervals between dividend announcement and ex-dividend dates. If historical data is unavailable or unreliable, default dates are assigned based on typical market practices[54][59] - The accuracy of the model is evaluated by comparing predicted dividend points with actual dividend points for major indices (e.g., SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000). The model demonstrates high accuracy, with prediction errors generally within 5 points for SSE 50 and CSI 300, and within 10 points for CSI 500 and CSI 1000[60][64][67] - The model's predictions for stock index futures contracts' dividend points also show strong alignment with actual values, indicating its reliability for futures pricing[64][67][69]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company [4] Core Insights - The financial leasing industry is undergoing a transformation driven by regulatory changes and strategic upgrades, emphasizing the importance of direct leasing and operational leasing capabilities [1][10] - Jiangsu Jinzu has established a unique business model and competitive moat through its "manufacturer + regional" and "retail + technology" strategies, leading to strong financial performance even during macroeconomic adjustments [2][3] - The company's asset quality remains superior within the financial leasing sector, with a non-performing financing lease asset ratio of 0.90% and a provision coverage ratio of 403% [3] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The financial leasing industry in China is shifting from scale expansion to high-quality development, with new regulations aimed at promoting direct leasing and reducing reliance on sale-leaseback models [10][11] - By 2026, financial leasing companies are required to have at least 50% of new business from direct leasing, which is expected to enhance industry concentration and service to the real economy [11][12] Company Overview - Jiangsu Jinzu focuses on small and micro enterprises, with over 50% of its financing directed towards this segment, and has a strong presence in green leasing [27][29] - The company has a concentrated ownership structure with significant state-owned capital, providing stability and support for its strategic initiatives [29][30] Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company reported a 21.51% year-on-year increase in quarterly revenue, driven by asset scale expansion and improved net interest margins [2][39] - The company's net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 was 24.46 billion yuan, reflecting a 9.82% increase year-on-year, although growth was tempered by increased credit impairment losses [39][44] Asset Structure and Growth - Jiangsu Jinzu's total assets grew from 1,372.55 billion yuan at the end of 2024 to 1,620.11 billion yuan by Q3 2025, marking an 18.04% increase [52] - The company has strategically focused on clean energy and transportation sectors, which contributed significantly to its revenue growth [49][54] Risk Management and Quality - The company maintains a robust risk management framework, with a high provision coverage ratio and a focus on asset quality, which is critical in the current regulatory environment [3][54] - Jiangsu Jinzu's financial strategy emphasizes low leverage while achieving strong return on equity (ROE), showcasing its competitive edge in asset pricing and risk control [34][39]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company, marking its first coverage [5]. Core Insights - The company is a leader in the Chinese yeast market and the second-largest yeast producer globally, with a total fermentation capacity of 400,000 tons and sales of 415,400 tons of yeast and deep-processed products expected in 2024 [1][3]. - The company has a comprehensive global layout with 11 production bases in China and overseas factories in Egypt and Russia, distributing products to over 160 countries and regions [1]. - The yeast industry is characterized by an oligopolistic structure, with the top three companies holding over 70% market share globally, and the company holds a 55% market share in China [1][42]. - The company has a strong competitive edge due to its global capacity and R&D system, with a consistent R&D expense ratio of over 4% and numerous domestic and international patents [2][3]. - The company is expected to benefit from a decline in raw material costs, particularly molasses, which is projected to support profit recovery as sugarcane planting areas expand in China [1][2]. Financial Projections - The company is forecasted to achieve total revenue of CNY 167.2 billion, CNY 188.4 billion, and CNY 210.0 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 10.0%, 12.6%, and 11.5% respectively [3][4]. - The projected net profit for the same period is CNY 15.8 billion, CNY 19.7 billion, and CNY 23.1 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.6%, 24.5%, and 17.3% respectively [3][4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be CNY 1.82, CNY 2.27, and CNY 2.66 for 2025 to 2027 [3][4]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 24.8, 19.9, and 17.0 for the years 2025 to 2027, indicating a potential premium of 10%-25% compared to the estimated valuation range of CNY 49.98 to CNY 56.79 [3][4].

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月21日 折溢价：20260120 当日 ETF 溢价较多的是智能电车 ETF 浦银，ETF 折价 较多的是游戏传媒 ETF 浦银。近半年以来大宗交易日均成交金额达到 23 亿 元，20260120 当日大宗交易成交金额为 10 亿元，近半年以来平均折价率 6.75%，当日折价率为 5.88%。近一年以来上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500、 中证 1000 股指期货主力合约的年化贴水率中位数分别为 0.68%、3.79%、 11.11%、13.61%，当日上证 50 股指期货主力合约年化升水率为 1.45%， 处于近一年来 90%分位点，当日沪深 300 股指期货主力合约年化贴水率为 0.04%，处于近一年来 91%分位点；当日中证 500 股指期货主力合约年化升 水率为 2.57%，处于近一年来 98%分位点；当日中证 1000 股指期货主力合 约年化贴水率为 1.40%，处于近一年来 98%分位点。 机构关注与龙虎榜：近一周内调研机构较多的股票是帝科股份、润丰股份、 海康威视、埃科光电、苏盐井神、中创智领、阿拉丁、英联股份等，帝科股 份被 123 家机构调研。20260 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月21日 贵州茅台价格市场化改革专题研究报告 优于大市 从外溢依赖到独立生态，构建消费者导向的价格形成机制 前言：2026 年初，贵州茅台进行市场化转型，并发布了《2026 年贵州茅台 酒市场化运营方案》，明确产品、运营、渠道、价格等方面的改革细则。我 们认为其中的关键在于价格机制改革：一是打破了过去出厂价刚性，根据不 同产品、渠道的特性形成"多价态并存"的生态；二是更贴近消费者真实需 求，倒逼渠道通过服务赚取利润。本次价格体系重塑类似于 1988 年价格改 革，由宏观经济转型驱动，顺应"计划经济"到"商品经济"再到"商品+ 服务经济"转变的趋势，中长期或改变行业竞争生态和价格形成机制。 1988 年价格市场化改革：从计划统一定价转向市场调节，彻底激活企业活 力。彼时价格改革的核心驱动力源于中国经济从计划向市场化转轨，国家放 开 13 种名酒的定价权；茅台被动卷入市场化的洪流，选择高端品牌定位， 塑造"工艺+产区"品质表达体系，并通过根据需求市场化大幅提价、初步 建立市场化渠道体系(专卖店、小商等)，奠定了此后品牌力龙头的地位。但 彼时渠道超额利润来自产品的稀缺性和渠道的封闭性 ...

贵州茅台价格市场化改革专题研究报告 优于大市 从外溢依赖到独立生态，构建消费者导向的价格形成机制 前言：2026 年初，贵州茅台进行市场化转型，并发布了《2026 年贵州茅台 酒市场化运营方案》，明确产品、运营、渠道、价格等方面的改革细则。我 们认为其中的关键在于价格机制改革：一是打破了过去出厂价刚性，根据不 同产品、渠道的特性形成"多价态并存"的生态；二是更贴近消费者真实需 求，倒逼渠道通过服务赚取利润。本次价格体系重塑类似于 1988 年价格改 革，由宏观经济转型驱动，顺应"计划经济"到"商品经济"再到"商品+ 服务经济"转变的趋势，中长期或改变行业竞争生态和价格形成机制。 证券研究报告 | 2026年01月21日 | 公司 | 公司 | 投资 | 昨收盘 | 总市值 | 归母净利润（亿元） | | PE | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 代码 | 名称 | 评级 | （元） | （亿元） | 2025E | 2026E | 2025E 2026E | | 600519.SH | 贵州茅台 | 优于大市 | 1,382.0 | 17 ...