国信零售观点：1）剔除菲安妮女包业务商誉减值影响的 1.71 亿元后，公司归母净利润达到 6.07-7.04 亿 元，同口径下同比增长 73.35%-101.01%，整体表现较好。2）单四季度看，预计归母净利润 1.19-2.16 亿 元，中值 1.67 亿元。3）门店拓展方面，2025 年净增门店 163 家，期末潮宏基珠宝门店总数达 1668 家。 2026 年预计开店势能依旧较强，加盟商仍有较强开店意愿。 整体上，公司四季度店效仍延续较好增速，12 月受基数走高、税改以及营销活动错期等影响略有放缓，但 随着当前临近春节旺季，以及公司产品持续上新，店效具备一定提速支撑。短期建议关注春节旺季，中长 期公司门店拓展+产品逻辑较顺。考虑公司四季度增长较好，以及费用率有望进一步优化，我们上调公司 2025-2027 年归母净利润预测至 4.91/6.28/7.36 亿元（前值分别为 4.87/5.67/6.42 亿元），对应 PE 分别 为 22.6/17.7/15.1 倍，维持"优于大市"评级。 证券研究报告 | 2026年01月13日 潮宏基（002345.SZ） 四季度净利润中值预计 1.67 亿元，全年净 ...

公用环保 202601 第 2 期 优于大市 2025 年 1-11 月光伏/风电发电利用率同比下滑，重视"环保+资源品"投资逻辑 市场回顾：本周沪深 300 指数上涨 2.79%，公用事业指数上涨 2.54%，环 保指数上涨 3.88%，周相对收益率分别为-0.24%和 1.10%。申万 31 个一 级行业分类板块中，公用事业及环保涨幅处于第 23 和第 16 名。电力板 块子板块中，火电上涨 2.40%；水电上涨 0.70%，新能源发电上涨 3.74%； 水务板块上涨 2.50%；燃气板块上涨 4.80%。 重要事件：1-11 月份，全国光伏/风电发电利用率分别为 94.8%/94.3%。电 力行业规划研究与监测预警中心公布 2025 年 11 月全国新能源并网消纳 情况，11 月光伏发电利用率 93.7%，同比-2.5pct，1-11 月光伏发电利 用率为 94.8%，同比-2.2pct；11 月风电利用率 93.1%，同比-2.7pct， 1-11 月风电利用率 94.3%，同比-2.0pct。 专题研究：从成本中心到价值创造，重视"环保+资源品"投资逻辑。过去 一年，受地缘政治紧张和供应链安全焦虑驱 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" [1]. Core Insights - OpenAI has launched ChatGPT Health, marking the beginning of a new era in AI-driven healthcare. This product allows users to connect their medical records and health apps to receive AI-assisted interpretations of complex medical reports and personalized health plans [2][11]. - AI for Science (AI4S) is identified as a crucial direction for artificial intelligence, with significant implications for various fields including drug development and materials science. It is expected to transition from laboratory stages to industrial applications, becoming a competitive area for global tech giants [2][24]. - The reliability of AI healthcare models is emphasized as critical for improving human health. The newly developed HealthBench aims to address existing evaluation system deficiencies by providing a more accurate assessment of AI models in real-world medical scenarios [17][21]. Summary by Sections OpenAI Launches ChatGPT Health - ChatGPT Health is designed to enhance user engagement with their health data, providing insights and recommendations based on individual health information [11][12]. - The system architecture of ChatGPT Health incorporates "data isolation" to enhance privacy, ensuring that medical data is securely managed and not used for training the main model [12]. AI for Science Initiates a New Era in Healthcare - AI4S is recognized as a strategic focus for major technology companies, with applications in drug discovery and materials science. The year 2026 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for AI4S technology [24]. - Significant advancements in AI-driven drug discovery have been reported, including a platform that dramatically increases the speed and accuracy of virtual drug screening [24][31]. Related Companies - Companies such as Dean Diagnostics and Crystal Technology are highlighted for their roles in AI diagnostics and drug development, respectively. These firms are positioned to leverage AI technologies to enhance their offerings in the healthcare sector [40].

Group 1: Macro and Strategy - The report highlights the importance of constructing negative duration funds using government bond futures to navigate market cycles [3][8] - Public funds have established a stable presence in the government bond futures market, with a significant number of funds holding short positions [8][9] - The report suggests that the current market for negative duration funds is limited, with most funds using futures primarily for hedging rather than seeking additional returns [10] Group 2: Industry and Company Insights - The medical and biological sector is experiencing strong performance, particularly in areas like brain-computer interfaces and AI healthcare, with significant investment opportunities identified [20][21] - The consumer-grade 3D printing industry is entering a period of widespread adoption, driven by technological advancements and increasing demand for personalized products, with a projected market size exceeding $4 billion by 2024 [22][23] - The food and beverage sector is preparing for the Spring Festival, with various companies expected to benefit from favorable market conditions, particularly in the dairy and beverage segments [27][28] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the 3D printing sector that demonstrate technological advantages and strong market positions [24][25] - In the food and beverage industry, companies like Moutai and Yili are highlighted for their growth potential amid favorable market conditions [27][28] - The service sector is expected to benefit from ongoing government policies aimed at boosting consumer spending, with companies like Ctrip and Huazhu Group recommended for investment [30][33]

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月12日 社会服务行业双周报（第 122 期） 优于大市 促服务消费政策持续加码，携程"智能引擎 3.0"AI 优化产品推荐 板块复盘：消费者服务板块报告期内上涨 3.15%，跑赢大盘 0.96pct。报告 期内（2025 年 12 月 29 日-2026 年 1 月 11 日），国信社服板块涨幅居前的 股票为天立国际控股（19.92%）、人瑞人才（12.56%）、*ST 张股、兰生股 份、东方甄选、君亭酒店、豆神教育、科锐国际、科德教育、同程旅行。 行业与公司动态：1）近期服务消费领域政策持续加码，为行业发展注入新 活力。全国商务工作会议再次强调"释放服务消费潜力"，特别强调提升海 南自贸港的贸易投资自由化便利化水平；上海同步推出 16 条举措，旨在通 过文博延时开放、文旅体融合等活动激发消费活力；多部门印发《扩大职工 文体消费意见》，鼓励每年最多开展四次春秋游。2）企业端，国旅三亚国 际免税城三期项目全面封顶，预计将在 2026 年分阶段落成。中免集团新任 命陈素晶为首席运营官，其拥有超过三十年的奢侈品和时尚零售行业经验。 首旅酒店高端品牌"诺岚"亮相北京环球度假区，亚朵与 ...

策略周报 "十六连阳"背后是哪些资金在买——1 月第 1 周立体投资策 略周报 核心结论：①1 月第 1 周，资金入市合计净流入 721 亿元，前一周流出 104 亿元。②短期情绪指标处于 05 年以来高位，长期情绪指标处于 05 年以来中 低位。③从行业角度看，以换手率为例，过去一周国防军工、传媒、汽车等 热度较高。 1 月第 1 周，资金入市合计净流入 721 亿元，前一周流出 104 亿元。资金流 入方面，融资余额增加 858 亿元，公募基金发行增加 70 亿元，ETF 净赎回 4 亿元，北上资金估算净流入 96 亿元；资金流出方面，IPO 融资规模 15 亿元， 产业资本净减持 145 亿元，交易费用 139 亿元。 证券研究报告 | 2026年01月12日 短期情绪指标处于 05 年以来高位。短期情绪指标主要看换手率和融资交易 占比，最近一周换手率（年化）为 564%，当前处在历史上由低到高 87%的分 位；最近一周融资交易占比为 11.36%，当前处在历史上由低到高 90%的分位。 长期情绪指标处于 05 年以来中低位。长期情绪指标主要看大类资产比价， 一看价格对比，最近一周 A 股风险溢价（全部 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月12日 361 度（01361.HK） 第四季度流水维持双位数增长，国内超品店拓展至 126 家 |  | 公司研究·海外公司快评 |  | 纺织服饰·服装家纺 | 投资评级：优于大市（维持）  | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 丁诗洁 | 0755-81981391 | dingshijie@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520040004 | | 证券分析师： | 刘佳琪 | 010-88005446 | liujiaqi@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523070003 | 事项： 公司公告：1 月 12 日，公司公告 2025 年第四季度零售表现，361 度主品牌线下零售额录得约 10%正增长， 童装品牌线下零售额录得约 10%正增长，电子商务平台录得高双位数正增长。 国信纺服观点： 1、2025 第四季度成人装线下流水增长约 10%，童装线下流水增长约 10%，电商增长高双位数，主品牌与 童装增速环比持平，电商增长环比降速；产品针对多样化需求持续推新；渠道建设方 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月12日 金融工程日报 沪指 17 连阳，两市成交额 3.6 万亿元破历史记录 市场表现：20260112 大部分指数处于上涨状态，规模指数中中证 1000 指 数表现较好，板块指数中北证 50 指数表现较好，风格指数中中证 500 成长 指数表现较好。传媒、计算机、国防军工、综合金融、商贸零售行业表现较 好，石油石化、煤炭、房地产、农林牧渔、银行行业表现较差。Kimi、量子 材料、智谱 AI、拼多多合作商、小红书平台等概念表现较好，草甘膦、锂电 负极、央企煤炭、六氟磷酸锂、保险精选等概念表现较差。 市场情绪：20260112 市场情绪较为高涨，收盘时有 197 只股票涨停，有 9 只股票跌停。昨日涨停股票今日收盘收益为 6.06%，昨日跌停股票今日收盘 收益为-0.85%。今日封板率 76%，较前日提升 11%，连板率 46%，较前日 提升 21%，连板率创近一个月新高。 市场资金流向：截至 20260109 两融余额为 26276 亿元，其中融资余额 26099 亿元，融券余额 177 亿元。两融余额占流通市值比重为 2.6%，两融 交易占市场成交额比重为 11.0%。 折 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. Core Views - Amid complex global macro - economic conditions and increased bond market volatility, traditional bond long - only strategies face challenges, and treasury bond futures have become important for risk management and asset allocation in bond investment portfolios [13]. - The report details the current situation of public funds' participation in treasury bond futures, analyzes the design logic of negative - duration funds, and explores using treasury bond futures to hedge interest - rate risks for all - weather bond asset allocation [13]. Summary by Related Catalogs Public Funds' Current Participation in Treasury Bond Futures - **Increasing Position Size with 1% Market Share**: By the end of Q3 2025, 141 public funds held treasury bond futures, holding a total of 13,068 contracts, including 3,992 long contracts (0.6% of the market) and 9,076 short contracts (1.4% of the market). Public funds are required to disclose treasury bond futures trading information in regular reports [17]. - **Short - Dominant Position Structure**: At the end of Q3 2025, 79 public funds held net short positions in treasury bond futures, with a short - contract market value of about 11 billion yuan, compared to 60 funds with net long positions and a long - contract market value of about 5.6 billion yuan, indicating a preference for short positions to hedge interest - rate risks [18]. - **Strategy and Contract Selection: Focus on Single - Variety and Single - Maturity**: In Q3 2025, 63.8% of funds held single - maturity treasury bond futures contracts (39 long - position and 51 short - position funds), while 36.2% held multi - variety or multi - maturity contracts [24]. - **Concentration on Active Contracts**: In Q3 2025, over 90% of public funds' positions were in the T2512, TS2512, and TL2512 active contracts, and the number of short positions in the TL2512 and T2512 contracts was significantly higher than long positions [27]. - **Mid - and Long - Term Pure - Bond Funds as the Main Allocators**: By the end of Q3 2025, mid - and long - term pure - bond funds were the main participants in treasury bond futures, with 47 funds holding positions, followed by hybrid bond - type secondary funds with 29 funds. The scale of mid - and long - term pure - bond funds' positions was about 8.78 billion yuan [28][33]. - **Leading Layout by Top - Tier Institutions**: By the end of Q3 2025, top - tier fund companies led in treasury bond futures layout. Harvest Fund and E Fund each had 14 related products, followed by China Merchants Fund with 10 products [37]. - **Significant Differences in Allocation Intensity Among Products**: The allocation intensity of public funds to treasury bond futures varies. For example, E Fund Credit Bond has a higher short - position allocation ratio than the market average, and Huataibaoxing Kaiyuan 3 - Month has a contract - market - value - to - fund - scale ratio of 27.1%, much higher than the industry average [40]. Negative - Duration Investment Strategy Based on Treasury Bond Futures Shorts - **Existing Negative - Duration Funds**: There are few negative - duration funds in the market, and the degree of negative duration is limited. This may be due to data errors in calculations and regulatory requirements for hedging purposes [46]. - **Constructing a Negative - Duration Portfolio**: Under regulatory constraints, to maximize negative duration, the following steps can be taken: invest only in cash bonds and treasury bond futures, set the short - position market - value ratio of treasury bond futures at a maximum of 30%, set the portfolio leverage at a maximum of 140%, short 30 - year treasury bond futures, and choose short - term bonds with a duration close to 0. The longest negative duration of a fund can reach - 7.1 years [51][55].

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月12日 重点公司盈利预测及投资评级 | 公司 | 公司 | 投资 | 昨收盘 | 总市值 | EPS | | PE | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 代码 | 名称 | 评级 | （元， | （亿元， | 2025E | 2026E | 2025E | 2026E | | | | | CNY） | CNY） | | | | | | ATAT.O | 亚朵 | 优于大市 | 278 | 384 | 12.16 | 15.19 | 22.86 | 18.30 | | 9961.HK | 携程集团-S | 优于大市 | 537 | 3830 | 45.67 | 30.42 | 11.75 | 17.64 | | 1179.HK | 华住集团-S | 优于大市 | 36 | 1110 | 1.43 | 1.67 | 25.00 | 21.41 | | 601888.SH | 中国中免 | 优于大市 | 96 | 1959 | 1.91 | 2.28 | 50.15 | 42.01 | | 300 ...