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国信证券晨会纪要-20250829
Guoxin Securities· 2025-08-29 02:24
Key Insights - The report highlights the significant growth in the nutritional products sector, with New Hope Liuhe (002001.SZ) achieving a revenue of 11.101 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.76%, and a net profit of 3.603 billion yuan, up 63.46% [10] - The report emphasizes the robust performance of the amino acid market, particularly methionine, with prices rising to 22,200 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 12.98% [11] - The report notes the steady performance of the vitamin A and E segments, with revenue of 2.085 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.209 billion yuan, maintaining a net profit margin of 58% despite recent price declines [12] Company Analysis - New Hope Liuhe's nutritional products segment accounted for 64.86% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 47.79%, an increase of 11.93 percentage points year-on-year [10] - The company has expanded its methionine production capacity to 460,000 tons per year, positioning it as the third-largest producer globally [11] - The vitamin segment's revenue is expected to remain stable, with recent price adjustments indicating limited further declines [12] Industry Trends - The real estate sector is experiencing a downturn, with a 6.5% year-on-year decline in sales volume and a 4.0% decrease in sales area as of July 2025 [22] - The average price of new residential properties has decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, indicating ongoing pressure in the housing market [23] - Recent policy relaxations in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai are expected to provide some support to the real estate market, although the overall outlook remains cautious [24] Financial Performance - The report indicates that Beike-W (02423.HK) achieved a revenue of 26 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 11%, although net profit declined by 32% [28] - Yuexiu Property (00123.HK) reported a revenue of 47.6 billion yuan, a 34.6% increase, but a net profit decline of 25.2% due to lower gross margins [31] - Zhou Dasheng (002867.SZ) experienced a 43.29% drop in revenue to 4.597 billion yuan, while net profit remained relatively stable, reflecting a 1.27% decline [32] Market Outlook - The report suggests that the non-bank financial sector is poised for growth, driven by a shift in deposit behaviors and increased demand for risk assets [25] - The overall market is in a recovery phase, with expectations of a gradual improvement in economic conditions and investment opportunities in various sectors [26] - The report maintains a positive outlook for companies with strong fundamentals and innovative product offerings, particularly in the nutritional and financial sectors [13][26]
中国石油(601857):天然气量价齐升,盈利稳定凸显韧性
Guoxin Securities· 2025-08-29 02:23
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][24]. Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 showed a year-on-year decline in net profit by 5.4%, with revenue reaching 1.45 trillion yuan, down 6.7% year-on-year, primarily due to falling crude oil and refined oil prices [10][24]. - The company is focusing on stable growth in oil and gas production, with a notable increase in natural gas sales volume and price, alongside accelerated development in the renewable energy sector [2][4]. - The company plans to acquire three gas storage companies to enhance its natural gas supply chain and optimize asset integration, which is expected to contribute to high-quality development [4][20]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a net profit of 839.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.4% year-on-year, with a second-quarter net profit of 371.9 billion yuan, down 13.6% year-on-year [10][24]. - The oil and gas segment generated an operating profit of 856.9 billion yuan, down 6.8% year-on-year, with an equivalent oil production of 923.6 million barrels, an increase of 2.0% year-on-year [2][12]. Oil and Gas Production - The company reported a stable growth in crude oil production, reaching 476.4 million barrels, up 0.3% year-on-year, while the average crude oil price was 66.2 USD/barrel, down 14.5% year-on-year [2][12]. - Natural gas sales volume increased to 1197.7 billion cubic meters, up 4.2% year-on-year, with an average price of 2.334 yuan/cubic meter, up 5.2% year-on-year [4][20]. Refining and Sales - The refining and refined oil sales segments faced pressure, with operating profits of 96.6 billion yuan and 75.6 billion yuan, down 8.0% and 25.2% year-on-year, respectively [3][17]. - The company processed 694.3 million barrels of crude oil, a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year, while refined oil production was 59.57 million tons, down 0.9% year-on-year [3][17]. New Materials and Renewable Energy - The company is increasing its focus on new materials, with production rising by 54.9% year-on-year to 166.5 million tons, while the renewable energy segment saw a significant increase in wind and solar power generation by 70.0% year-on-year [3][12]. Dividend and Future Outlook - The company plans to maintain a mid-year dividend of 0.22 yuan per share, totaling 402.6 billion yuan, consistent with historical levels [4][24]. - Future profit forecasts estimate net profits of 1674 billion yuan, 1709 billion yuan, and 1740 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with diluted EPS projected at 0.91, 0.93, and 0.95 yuan [24][26].
中国海外宏洋集团(00081):销售平稳拿地积极,业绩短期仍然承压
Guoxin Securities· 2025-08-29 02:17
证券研究报告 | 2025年08月29日 中国海外宏洋集团(00081.HK) 优于大市 销售平稳拿地积极,业绩短期仍然承压 业绩短期仍然承压。2025H1,公司实现营业收入 145 亿元,同比-33%,主要 因为 2022 年以来房地产市场下行、公司签约销售额下降对结算规模的影响 持续体现。2025H1,公司实现归母净利润 2.8 亿元,同比-68%;归母净利率 2.0%,同比下降 2.1pct。一方面因为毛利率同比下降 0.4pct 至 9.3%,销售 费率同比增加 1.2pct 至 3.9%,主要因为 2021 年及以前获取项目毛利低、难 去化,但 2022 年至 2025H1 新拿地项目毛利更高(预期实现 19%)、去化更 好,随着这些项目在结算规模中的占比逐步提升,公司业绩有望企稳回升。 另一方面,2025H1 公司归母净利润占净利润整体的比重为 74%,同比下降 28pct,少数股东分得更多表内项目收益,而应占合联营项目业绩亏损。 销售同比下滑但规模相对平稳,上半年拿地较积极。2025H1,公司实现签约 销售 166 亿元,同比-13%;其中合联营销售额 10 亿元,占比 6%持续下降; 权益销售 ...
山西汾酒(600809):2025H1收入同比+5.4%,2025Q2毛利率略有承压
Guoxin Securities· 2025-08-29 02:16
证券研究报告 | 2025年08月29日 山西汾酒(600809.SH) 优于大市 2025H1 收入同比+5.4%,2025Q2 毛利率略有承压 2025H1 收入稳健增长,2025Q2 利润端受到毛利率影响较大。2025H1 公司实现营 业总收入239.6 亿元/同比+5.4%,归母净利润85.1 亿元/同比+1.1%;其中2025Q2 营业总收入 74.5 亿元/同比+0.4%,归母净利润 18.6 亿元/同比-13.5%。 公司根据市场需求灵活调整产品结构,预计 2025H1 两头产品表现较好。分产品 看:(1)汾酒产品 2025H1 收入 233.9 亿元/同比+5.8%,预计玻汾及青花系列表 现好于整体,其中青花 20/25 占比提升,青花 26 增量多体现在第一季度;2025Q2 收入 71.8 亿元/同比+0.6%,第二季度受到环境影响,政商务、大众宴席等各消 费场景缩量较多,我们预计公司为应对需求下降阶段性加快玻汾发货节奏,同时 针对大单品青花 20 等通过经销商帮扶、促进消费者开瓶等举措维护渠道秩序; 25Q1 具有较好增势的腰部产品老白汾、巴拿马在 25Q2 下滑幅度较大。(2)其 他酒 ...
山东黄金(600547):半年报点评:二季度黄金量价齐增推升业绩,增产扩能稳步推进
Guoxin Securities· 2025-08-29 01:53
证券研究报告 | 2025年08月29日 黄金产量远期有望持续提升:公司黄金资源储量丰富,有众多项目同步扩产。 今年上半年,三山岛金矿副井工程施工至-1900 米标高、刷新国内深井记录; 焦家金矿资源整合项目设计的 5 条主控性竖井工程中,已有 4 条顺利掘砌到 底,正在有序推进配套装卸载、排水配电、运输平巷等工程的施工,全力保 障施工进度;新城金矿资源整合项目 4 条主要竖井工程均已掘砌到底,正在 进行井下排水配电系统、粉矿回收系统建设,同步推进回风石门巷道、主要 运输巷道掘砌施工。公司将加快世界级黄金资源产业基地的建设,未来随着 扩能改造项目投产达产,公司黄金产量有望持续提升。 利润分配方面:拟每 10 股派发现金红利累计人民币 1.80 元(含税),总计约 8.05 亿元,约占 2025 年半年度合并报表扣除永续债利息后归属于上市公司 普通股股东净利润 31.45%,分红比例相对较高。 风险提示:项目建设进度不及预期;黄金价格大幅回调;安全和环保风险。 投资建议:维持"优于大市"评级。 上 调 公 司 的 盈 利 预 测 。 预 计 公 司 2025-2027 年 营 业 收 入 分 别 为 1094/ ...
兴业银行(601166):业绩增速由负转正
Guoxin Securities· 2025-08-29 01:42
证券研究报告 | 2025年08月29日 兴业银行(601166.SH)2025 年半年报点评 中性 业绩增速由负转正 业绩增速由负转正。2025 年上半年实现营收 1104.6 亿元,同比下降 2.3%, 降幅较一季度收窄 1.3 个百分点;实现归母净利润 431.4 亿元,同比增长 0.2%,增速由负转正,一季度同比下降了 2.2%。。 净息差同比降幅略有扩大,拖累净利息收入增速转负。上半年利息净收入同 比下降 1.5%,一季度同比增长 1.3%,主要是净息差同比降幅略有扩大。上 半年净息差 1.75%,一季度净息差 1.80%,同比分别收窄 11bps 和 7bps,二 季度降幅虽略有扩大但在对标同业中表现依然尚可。其中,上半年负债付息 率同比下降 40bps,存款付息率同比下降 30bps。 规模小幅扩张,积极优化结构。期末资产总额 10.61 万亿元,较年初增长 1.0%,贷款总额 5.90 万亿元,较年初增长 2.9%,期末贷款净额占总资产比 重为 54.4%,较年初提升 1.1 个百分点。 三张名片保持特色。期末绿色贷款余额 1.08 万亿元,较年初增长 15.61%; 大投行 FPA 余额 4 ...
宁波银行(002142):2025 年中报点评:业绩增速回升,资产质量改善
Guoxin Securities· 2025-08-29 01:20
证券研究报告 | 2025年08月29日 宁波银行(002142.SZ)2025 年中报点评 优于大市 业绩增速回升,资产质量改善 营收、利润等业绩增速回升。公司此前已披露快报,数据调整不大。公司 2025 年上半年实现营业收入 372 亿元,同比增长 7.9%,增速较一季度回升 2.3 个 百分点;实现归母净利润 148 亿元,同比增长 8.2%,增速较一季度回升 2.4 个百分点。上半年加权平均净资产收益率 13.8%,同比下降 0.9 个百分点。 资产规模稳定增长。2025 年二季度末总资产 3.47 万亿元,同比增长 14.4%, 较年初增长 11.0%。其中二季度末贷款总额 1.67 万亿元,较年初增长 13.4%; 存款总额 2.08 万亿元,较年初增长 13.1%。上半年新增贷款主要来自对公, 零售贷款略有减少;上半年新增存款也主要来自对公,其中对公活期存款较 年初增长 30.8%。二季度末核心一级资本充足率 9.65%,资本充足。 净息差下降。公司披露的上半年日均净息差 1.76%,同比降低 11bps,其中 受市场利率下行、零售贷款占比下降等因素影响,生息资产收益率同比下降 47bps;负债 ...
苏州银行(002966):2025年半年报点评:净息差企稳,加大异地区域信贷投放
Guoxin Securities· 2025-08-29 01:19
证券研究报告 | 2025年08月29日 营收增速环比提升,归母净利润增速稳健。2025年上半年实现营业收入65.04 亿元,同比增长 1.8%,较一季度增速提升 1.0 个百分点;实现归母净利润 31.34 亿元,同比增长 6.2%,较一季度增速下降 0.6 个百分点。 净利息收入增速由负转正,其他非息收入降幅收窄。2025 年上半年净利息收 入同比 2.7%,一季度同比下降 0.6%,受益于总资产同比增速提升以及净息 差降幅收窄。上半年非息收入同比增长 0.1%,较一季度增速下降了 3.2 个百 分点;其中,手续费净收入同比增长 9.0%;其他非息收入同比下降 4%,降 幅较一季度增速收窄了 4 个百分点。由于交易金融资产公允价值变动在高基 数下出现亏损,公司或兑现了部分 OCI 和 AC 账户浮盈,投资收益实现不错 增长,其他综合收益则下降了 27.6%。 积极拓展苏州市以外区域信贷投放,净息差有企稳迹象。期末资产总额 7550 亿元,贷款总额 3508 亿元,较年初分别增长 8.8%和 9.5%。贷款行业分布上, 对公贷款和个人贷款较年初分别增长 18.7%和 0.6%,期末对公贷款份额达 75.4% ...
伊之密(300415):2025年上半年净利润同比增长15%,海外布局持续推进
Guoxin Securities· 2025-08-28 15:29
投资建议:公司是国内领先的模压成型设备供应商,注塑机有望持续受益国 内份额提升及出口拉动,压铸机受益中高端 LEAP 系列带来竞争力强化,镁 合金注射产品处于国内龙头地位,有望受益人形机器人、新能源汽车等结构 件的轻量化趋势。我们维持盈利预测,预计 2025-2027 年归母净利润 7.06/7.98/8.95 亿元,对应 PE 值 16/14/13x,维持"优于大市"评级。 风险提示:新产品进展不及预期;下游需求不及预期;市场竞争加剧。 | 盈利预测和财务指标 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 4,096 | 5,063 | 5,873 | 6,502 | 7,145 | | (+/-%) | 11.3% | 23.6% | 16.0% | 10.7% | 9.9% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 477 | 608 | 706 | 798 | 895 | | (+/-%) | 17.7% | 27.4% | 16.1% | 13.0% | 12.1% | ...
高技术制造业宏观周报:国信周频高技术制造业扩散指数显著回升-20250828
Guoxin Securities· 2025-08-28 15:26
证券研究报告 | 2025年08月28日 高技术制造业高频数据跟踪上,6-氨基青霉烷酸价格 190 元/千克,较 上周上升 10 元/千克;丙烯腈价格 8250 元/吨,与上周持平;动态随机 存储器(DRAM)价格 1.8870 美元,较上周上升 0.073 美元;晶圆(Wafer) 价格最新一期报 2.80 美元/片,较上周下降 0.01 美元/片;六氟磷酸锂 价格 5.58 万元/吨,较上周上升 0.08 万元/吨;中关村电子产品价格指 数:液晶显示器最新一期报 91.04,与上周持平。 高技术制造业政策动向上,8 月 26 日,国务院发布深入实施"人工智能 +"行动意见。意见明确,到 2027 年,率先实现人工智能与 6 大重点领 域广泛深度融合,新一代智能终端、智能体等应用普及率超 70%,智能 经济核心产业规模快速增长;到 2030 年,我国人工智能全面赋能高质 量发展,新一代智能终端、智能体等应用普及率超 90%,智能经济成为 我国经济发展的重要增长极。 高技术制造业前沿动态上,8 月 26 日晚间,寒武纪(688256)发布 2025 年半年报。公司上半年实现营业收入 28.81 亿元,同比增长 ...