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京东集团-SW(09618):2025Q4 前瞻:国补退坡致Q4 收入利润承压
Guoxin Securities· 2026-01-18 14:31
Investment Rating - The investment rating for JD Group is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [2][5][11] Core Views - The upcoming Q4 2025 financial report is expected to show revenue under pressure due to the reduction of national subsidies, with a projected revenue of CNY 348.8 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of only 0.5% [4][6] - The Non-GAAP net profit margin is anticipated to decline by 3 percentage points to 0.2% in Q4 2025, primarily due to the impact of subsidy reductions and an increase in the proportion of supermarket sales [4][7] - Revenue growth for JD Retail is expected to decrease by 3%, with significant declines in the sales of electronic products and home appliances, while the daily necessities category is projected to maintain double-digit growth [4][6] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to CNY 1,305.6 billion, CNY 1,396.9 billion, and CNY 1,494.3 billion, reflecting adjustments of -2.2%, -2.5%, and -4.1% respectively [5][11] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are CNY 26.5 billion, CNY 29.6 billion, and CNY 33.3 billion, with adjustments of -11.9%, -28.6%, and -42.0% respectively [5][11] Operational Insights - The overall GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume) for Q4 is expected to show low single-digit negative growth, influenced by the reduction of national subsidies and high base effects [4][6] - Active purchasing users and purchase frequency in e-commerce remain strong, although the decline in high-ticket items due to subsidy reductions is expected to impact average transaction prices and GMV growth [4][6]
ETF周报:上周沪深300ETF净赎回超千亿,芯片主题持续领涨-20260118
Guoxin Securities· 2026-01-18 14:31
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Last week (from January 12 to January 16, 2026), the median weekly return of equity ETFs was 0.52%. Among broad - based ETFs, the Science and Technology Innovation Board ETF had the highest return; among sector ETFs, the technology ETF had the highest return; among thematic ETFs, the chip ETF had the highest return [1][12][16]. - Last week, equity ETFs had a net redemption of 143.293 billion yuan. Among broad - based ETFs, the CSI 1000 ETF had the least net redemption; among sector ETFs, the technology ETF had the most net subscriptions; among thematic ETFs, the AI ETF had the most net subscriptions [2][34][59]. - As of last Friday, the top three fund companies in terms of the total scale of listed, non - monetary ETFs were Huaxia, E Fund, and Hua Tai Ber瑞 [5][53][59]. - This week, 9 ETFs are scheduled to be issued, including Penghua Shanghai Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation Board Chip Design Thematic ETF, ICBC CSRC Hong Kong Stock Connect Medical Thematic ETF, etc. [5][56][59]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs ETF Performance - Last week, the median weekly return of equity ETFs was 0.52%. The median returns of Science and Technology Innovation Board, CSI 500, CSI 1000, ChiNext, A500, SSE 50, and SSE 300 ETFs were 2.85%, 2.18%, 1.28%, 0.99%, 0.17%, - 0.49%, and - 1.60% respectively. The median returns of commodity, cross - border, bond, and money - market ETFs were 2.86%, 1.62%, 0.08%, and 0.02% respectively [12]. - Among sectors, the median returns of technology, cyclical, consumer, and large - financial sector ETFs were 3.95%, 0.52%, - 1.29%, and - 2.54% respectively. Among thematic ETFs, the median returns of chip, AI, and robot ETFs were 4.56%, 4.04%, and 4.03% respectively, showing relatively strong performance, while the median returns of military, bank, and securities ETFs were - 3.57%, - 2.56%, and - 2.29% respectively, showing relatively weak performance [16]. ETF Scale Changes and Net Subscriptions/Redeemptions - As of last Friday, the scales of equity, cross - border, and bond ETFs were 3.8521 trillion yuan, 1.0421 trillion yuan, and 748 billion yuan respectively. The scales of commodity and money - market ETFs were relatively small, at 275.1 billion yuan and 151.5 billion yuan respectively [19]. - Among broad - based ETFs, the SSE 300 and A500 ETFs had relatively large scales of 1.1117 trillion yuan and 290.3 billion yuan respectively. The scales of Science and Technology Innovation Board, CSI 500, CSI 1000, SSE 50, and ChiNext ETFs were relatively small [19]. - Among sectors, the technology sector ETF had a scale of 527.5 billion yuan as of last Friday, followed by the cyclical sector ETF with a scale of 273.7 billion yuan. The scales of large - financial and consumer ETFs were relatively small [25]. - By popular themes, as of last Friday, the chip, securities, and pharmaceutical ETFs had the highest scales of 175.7 billion yuan, 140.8 billion yuan, and 109.6 billion yuan respectively [25]. - Last week, equity ETFs had a net redemption of 143.293 billion yuan and a total scale decrease of 128.807 billion yuan; money - market ETFs had a net redemption of 10.646 billion yuan and a total scale decrease of 10.633 billion yuan. Among broad - based ETFs, the CSI 1000 ETF had the least net redemption of 9.331 billion yuan, and the SSE 300 ETF had the most net redemption of 103.323 billion yuan [28]. - Among sectors, last week, the technology ETF had the most net subscriptions of 40.63 billion yuan and a scale increase of 56.688 billion yuan; the large - financial ETF had the least net subscriptions of 557 million yuan and a scale decrease of 4.358 billion yuan. Among thematic ETFs, the AI ETF had the most net subscriptions of 11.668 billion yuan and a scale increase of 14.286 billion yuan; the robot ETF had the most net redemptions of 2.561 billion yuan and a scale decrease of 373 million yuan [34]. ETF Benchmark Index Valuation - As of last Friday, the P/E ratios of the SSE 50, SSE 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, ChiNext, and A500 ETFs were at the 83.00%, 88.20%, 100.00%, 99.92%, 67.74%, and 97.93% quantile levels respectively, and the P/B ratios were at the 64.19%, 74.75%, 100.00%, 81.23%, 68.56%, and 98.19% quantile levels respectively. Compared with the previous week, the valuation quantile of the SSE 50 ETF significantly decreased [37][38]. - As of last Friday, the P/E ratios of cyclical, large - financial, consumer, and technology sector ETFs were at the 88.12%, 25.00%, 38.61%, and 99.17% quantile levels respectively, and their P/B ratios were at the 85.73%, 49.67%, 43.15%, and 98.39% quantile levels respectively [39]. - As of last Friday, the P/E ratio quantiles of photovoltaic, military, and chip ETFs were relatively high, at 99.83%, 99.50%, and 99.17% respectively; the P/B ratio quantiles of AI, robot, and dividend ETFs were relatively high, at 99.75%, 99.50%, and 92.24% respectively. Compared with the previous week, the valuation quantile of the securities ETF significantly decreased [40]. ETF Margin Trading and Short Selling - Overall, the margin balance and short - selling volume of equity ETFs both increased in the past year. As of last Thursday, the margin balance of equity ETFs increased from 50.402 billion yuan in the previous week to 55.172 billion yuan, and the short - selling volume decreased from 2.37 billion shares in the previous week to 2.348 billion shares [44]. - Among the top 10 ETFs in terms of average daily margin purchases and short - selling volume, the CSI 500 ETF and the securities ETF had relatively high average daily margin purchases, and the A500 ETF and the SSE 300 ETF had relatively high average daily short - selling volume [4][47][48]. ETF Managers - As of last Friday, Huaxia Fund ranked first in the total scale of listed, non - monetary ETFs, with relatively high management scales in multiple sub - fields such as scale - index ETFs, thematic, style, and strategy - index ETFs, and cross - border ETFs. E Fund ranked second, with relatively high management scales in scale - index ETFs and cross - border ETFs. Hua Tai Ber瑞 Fund ranked third, with relatively high management scales in scale - index ETFs and thematic, style, and strategy - index ETFs [53]. - Last week, 7 ETFs were newly established. This week, 9 ETFs are scheduled to be issued, including Penghua Shanghai Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation Board Chip Design Thematic ETF, ICBC CSRC Hong Kong Stock Connect Medical Thematic ETF, etc. [56].
东鹏饮料(605499):2025年四季度延续景气增长,利润略有承压
Guoxin Securities· 2026-01-18 14:30
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][3][18] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue of CNY 20.76 billion to CNY 21.12 billion in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 31.07% to 33.34%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be between CNY 4.34 billion and CNY 4.59 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 30.5% to 38% [1][8] - The fourth quarter of 2025 is anticipated to see revenue between CNY 3.916 billion and CNY 4.276 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 19.4% to 30.3%. However, the net profit may face slight pressure, with estimates ranging from CNY 579 million to CNY 829 million, reflecting a year-on-year change of -6.5% to +33.9% [1][8] - The company is focusing on expanding its product categories and enhancing its market presence, particularly in overseas markets, supported by a planned issuance of H shares to raise funds for strategic initiatives [2][9][3] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of CNY 20.94 billion, CNY 25.93 billion, and CNY 31.15 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 32%, 24%, and 20% [4][19] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be CNY 4.50 billion, CNY 5.77 billion, and CNY 7.04 billion for the same years, with growth rates of 35%, 28%, and 22% [4][19] - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be CNY 8.65, CNY 11.10, and CNY 13.54 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4][19] Market Dynamics - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory in the beverage sector, particularly in the functional drink category, which is projected to continue double-digit growth [2][8] - The company is also benefiting from cost advantages and scale effects, which are expected to enhance its net profit margin over the year [2][8] Strategic Initiatives - The planned issuance of H shares aims to raise approximately CNY 664.46 million, which will be used to improve supply chain infrastructure, expand overseas market channels, and explore investment opportunities [2][9] - The company is focusing on localizing operations in overseas markets through joint ventures and subsidiaries [2][9]
超长债周报:30-10利差回升至46BP-20260118
Guoxin Securities· 2026-01-18 13:20
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The bond market rebounded slightly last week due to the central bank's 900 billion yuan 6 - month repurchase operation, a 25BP reduction in the structural monetary policy tool rate, good December import - export growth, weak December financial data, consecutive negative growth in household loans for three months, and the A - share market correction [1][4][11][39] - The current bond market is more likely to fluctuate. The economic stabilization since Q4 2024 was mainly due to central government leverage. With no additional treasury bond issuance in Q4 2025 and the decline in government bond financing growth, the domestic economy in Q4 remains under pressure. Also, in 2026, the Party Central Committee emphasizes high - quality development more, and the importance of "seeking progress while maintaining stability" in economic aggregates has decreased. Additionally, the absolute interest rate level is low, there is heavy selling pressure in treasury bond futures, and investor sentiment is generally weak [2][3][12][13] - The 30 - 10 spread of treasury bonds reached a new high this week and is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the near term. The spread of 20 - year CDB bonds is expected to fluctuate narrowly [2][3][12][13] Summary by Directory Weekly Review Long - term Bond Review - The central bank conducted a 900 billion yuan 6 - month repurchase operation and reduced the structural monetary policy tool rate by 25BP. December import - export growth was good, but December financial data was weak, with household loans in negative growth for the third consecutive month. Along with the A - share correction, the bond market rebounded slightly. The trading activity of long - term bonds decreased slightly last week but was still very active. The term spread and variety spread of long - term bonds widened [1][4][11] Long - term Bond Investment Outlook - **30 - year Treasury Bonds**: As of January 16, the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 46BP, at a historically low level. Considering economic and policy factors, the bond market is likely to fluctuate, and the 30 - 10 spread is expected to fluctuate at a high level [2][12] - **20 - year CDB Bonds**: As of January 16, the spread between 20 - year CDB bonds and 20 - year treasury bonds was 15BP, at a historically extremely low level. Given the economic situation, the bond market is likely to fluctuate, and the variety spread of 20 - year CDB bonds is expected to fluctuate narrowly [3][13] Long - term Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding long - term bonds is 24.3 trillion yuan. As of December 31, the total amount of long - term bonds with a remaining maturity of over 14 years was 24.4329 trillion yuan, accounting for 15.1% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and treasury bonds are the main varieties. In terms of remaining maturity, the 30 - year variety has the highest proportion [14] Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week (January 12 - 16, 2026), the issuance of long - term bonds dropped sharply to 83.7 billion yuan. By variety, treasury bonds were 32 billion yuan, local government bonds were 51.7 billion yuan, and other varieties had zero issuance. By term, the 30 - year variety had the largest issuance [19] This Week's Planned Issuance - The announced long - term bond issuance plan for this week is 102.2 billion yuan, including 10.12 billion yuan of long - term local government bonds and 1 billion yuan of long - term medium - term notes [25] Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, long - term bonds were very actively traded, with a turnover of 879.5 billion yuan, accounting for 9.7% of the total bond turnover. The trading activity decreased slightly compared to the previous week, with a decrease in turnover and proportion in most varieties, except for an increase in long - term local government bonds and long - term government agency bonds [27][28] Yield - Due to various factors, the bond market rebounded slightly. The yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, 30 - year, and 50 - year treasury bonds, CDB bonds, local bonds, and railway bonds changed to different extents. Representative individual bonds also had corresponding yield changes [39][40] Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: The term spread of long - term bonds widened last week, with an absolute low level. The 30 - 10 spread of benchmark treasury bonds was 46BP, a 4BP change from the previous week, at the 35th percentile since 2010 [46] - **Variety Spread**: The variety spread of long - term bonds widened last week, with an absolute low level. The spreads between 20 - year CDB bonds and treasury bonds, and 20 - year railway bonds and treasury bonds were 15BP and 20BP respectively, with changes of 1BP and 2BP from the previous week, at the 14th and 20th percentiles since 2010 [47] 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract of 30 - year treasury bond futures, TL2603, closed at 111.16 yuan, an increase of 0.26%. The total trading volume was 542,700 lots (- 18,010 lots), and the open interest was 140,000 lots (- 8,274 lots). Both trading volume and open interest decreased slightly compared to the previous week [52]
转债市场周报:上涨共识支撑转债估值-20260118
Guoxin Securities· 2026-01-18 13:20
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, A - share market rose first and then fell, with the daily trading volume hitting a record high on Wednesday. The bond market yield declined, and the 10 - year Treasury bond rate closed at 1.84% on Friday, down 3.58bp from the previous week. Most convertible bond issues closed higher, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index up 1.08% for the week [1][8][9]. - Although the current market price and convertible bond valuations in each price - parity range are close to historical 100% quantile positions, the equity is in an upward main - rising wave. Institutions' fear of missing out on opportunities strongly supports the convertible bond valuations. Currently, it is the stage with the strongest certainty of upward market force, and investors are reluctant to reduce positions despite high valuations [3][19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Focus (January 12 - January 16, 2026) Stock Market - A - shares rose first and then fell. The daily trading volume reached a record high of 3.99 trillion yuan on Wednesday. After the exchange adjusted the margin ratio for margin trading on Wednesday, market sentiment cooled down. The commercial aerospace sector declined from its high, and the market focus shifted to AI applications and semiconductors. The dividend - paying sector underperformed [1][8]. - By industry, most Shenwan primary industries fell last week. Computer (3.82%), electronics (3.77%), non - ferrous metals (3.03%), media (2.04%), and machinery and equipment (1.91%) led the gains, while national defense and military industry (- 4.92%), real estate (- 3.52%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (- 3.27%), and coal (- 3.11%) lagged [9]. Bond Market - Although the equity market continued to rise at the beginning of the week, the impact on the bond market weakened significantly. Due to the increased expectation of equity market adjustment after its rapid rise, the bond market yield declined. After the central bank cut the interest rate of structural monetary policy tools on Thursday, the yield fluctuated and remained stable overall. The 10 - year Treasury bond rate closed at 1.84% on Friday, down 3.58bp from the previous week [1][9]. Convertible Bond Market - Most convertible bond issues closed higher. The CSI Convertible Bond Index was up 1.08% for the week, the median price was up 0.63%, the arithmetic average parity was up 1.39%, and the market - wide conversion premium rate decreased by 0.64% compared with the previous week. In terms of individual bonds, Huayi, Dingjie, Haohan, Jingce Zhuan 2, and Weice led the gains, while Zai 22, Tianjian, Guanglian, Hugong, and Shentong convertible bonds led the losses [2][9][14]. - By industry, most convertible bond sectors in the market closed higher last week. Computer (4.92%), electronics (4.63%), media (4.62%), and machinery and equipment (4.32%) performed well, while national defense and military industry (- 5.17%), building materials (- 3.23%), coal (- 2.06%), and transportation (- 1.38%) underperformed [13]. - The total trading volume of the convertible bond market last week was 509.615 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 101.923 billion yuan, an increase from the previous week [16]. 3.2 Views and Strategies (January 19 - January 23, 2026) - The consensus on rising prices supports the valuation of convertible bonds. Last week, the equity market rose first and then fell under the influence of cooling forces. The theme market shifted from aerospace to AI applications and semiconductor equipment, and related convertible bonds performed well. The average parity increased, and the median market price rose to 139 yuan. The premium rate of equity - biased convertible bonds in the high - parity range increased significantly. Convertible bond ETFs still showed a significant net inflow trend, and new issues remained strong [3][19]. - In terms of investment directions, for relative returns, it is recommended to focus on lithium - battery, semiconductor equipment and materials, chemical industry, and securities industries. For absolute - return funds, attention should be paid to the undervalued leading companies in underperforming industries such as two - wheeled vehicles, beauty and skincare, architectural design, and pig farming [4][20]. 3.3 Valuation Overview As of January 16, 2026, in equity - biased convertible bonds, the average conversion premium rates of bonds with parities in the ranges of 80 - 90 yuan, 90 - 100 yuan, 100 - 110 yuan, 110 - 120 yuan, 120 - 130 yuan, and above 130 yuan were 52.01%, 41.63%, 33.21%, 26.22%, 21.03%, and 21.08% respectively, at the 99%/100%, 98%/100%, 98%/100%, 99%/100%, 97%/100%, and 99%/100% quantiles since 2010/2021. In debt - biased convertible bonds, the average YTM of bonds with parities below 70 yuan was - 4.26%, at the 1%/4% quantile since 2010/2021. The average implied volatility of all convertible bonds was 51.03%, at the 96%/100% quantile since 2010/2021. The difference between the implied volatility of convertible bonds and the long - term actual volatility of the underlying stocks was 9.85%, at the 97%/100% quantile since 2010/2021 [21]. 3.4 Primary Market Tracking - Last week (January 12 - January 16, 2026), Shangtai Convertible Bond and Naipu Zhuan 02 announced their issuances, while Aohong, Shuangle, and Jin 05 convertible bonds were listed [28]. - As of the announcements on January 16, there were no announcements of convertible bond issuances and listings in the coming week (January 19 - January 23, 2026). Last week, 4 companies including Haitian Co., Ltd., Changgao Electric Co., Ltd., Tonglian Precision Co., Ltd., and Xianghe Industrial Co., Ltd. got the exchange's approval for registration, 1 company (Jiangshan Co., Ltd.) was accepted by the exchange, 2 companies (Runhe Materials and Qiangda Circuit) passed the shareholders' meeting, and 4 companies (Jindao Technology, Zhongchuang Zhiling, Caixun Co., Ltd., and Dingtong Technology) were at the board of directors' proposal stage [34]. - As of now, there are 99 convertible bonds waiting to be issued, with a total planned issuance scale of 155.14 billion yuan. Among them, 9 bonds have been approved for registration, with a total scale of 8.69 billion yuan, and 1 bond has passed the listing committee, with a scale of 0.38 billion yuan [34].
可交换私募债跟踪:私募EB每周跟踪(20260112-20260116)-20260118
Guoxin Securities· 2026-01-18 13:20
Group 1: Report Core Information - The report regularly tracks the latest private exchangeable bond (private EB) projects from public channels, focusing on basic elements, with the caveat that issuance terms and progress may change, and the final prospectus and relevant underwriters should be referred to [1] - From January 12 - 16, 2026, the project of Huabang Life - Science Co., Ltd.'s 2026 private offering of science - innovation exchangeable corporate bonds to professional investors was accepted by the exchange, with an intended issuance scale of 1 billion yuan, and the underlying stock being Kaisheng New Materials (301069.SZ), and the lead underwriters being Huatai United and Southwest Securities, updated on January 16, 2026 [1] Group 2: Project Status Summary - As of January 16, 2026, multiple private exchangeable bond projects have different statuses: many projects such as those of Shanxi Transportation Development and Investment Group Co., Ltd. have passed; projects of Hainan农垦 Investment Holdings Group Co., Ltd. and others have received feedback; projects of Huabang Life - Science Co., Ltd. and Northern Lingyun Industrial Group Co., Ltd. have been accepted [3] - The scale of these projects ranges from 200 million yuan to 5 billion yuan, and the underlying stocks cover various companies like Huaxiang Co., Ltd., Fuda Co., Ltd., and Nanshan Aluminum Co., Ltd. [3]
基金投资价值分析:招商中证卫星产业ETF投资价值分析:一键精准布局卫星全产业链
Guoxin Securities· 2026-01-18 12:36
证券研究报告 | 2026年01月18日 基金投资价值分析 一键精准布局卫星全产业链——招商中证卫星产业 ETF 投资 价值分析 一键精准布局卫星全产业链 商业航天领域市场空间广阔:在全球太空竞争日趋激烈的今天,商业航天已 成为大国抢占战略制高点、塑造未来产业格局的核心战场。自 2015 年起, 中国商业航天市场规模快速增长,2025-2030 年,中国商业航天行业将进入 发展黄金期,预计 2030 年中国市场规模望达到 7 万亿元至 10 万亿元。 当前全球各国积极加快布局、抢占先机:卫星频率和轨道资源是全球稀缺战 略资源。依据 ITU"先到先得"规则,率先完成部署的主体可优先锁定轨道与 频段使用权,这一规则重塑了全球太空资源竞争格局。在此背景下中国推进 "GW 星座""千帆星座"等国家级星座计划,拟在未来十年内完成上万颗部署。 政策大力支持,国家战略持续加码:我国政府有关部门连续颁布一系列法规 及政策文件,大力支持商业航天领域发展,强调加快布局卫星网络的紧迫性。 目前国家队和民营企业"双线并进"的技术研发模式形成了良好的互补效应。 中证卫星产业指数投资价值分析 中证卫星产业指数(931594.CSI)选取 ...
招商中证卫星产业ETF投资值分析:键精准布局卫星全产业链
Guoxin Securities· 2026-01-18 07:17
证券研究报告 | 2026年01月18日 基金投资价值分析 一键精准布局卫星全产业链——招商中证卫星产业 ETF 投资 价值分析 一键精准布局卫星全产业链 商业航天领域市场空间广阔:在全球太空竞争日趋激烈的今天,商业航天已 成为大国抢占战略制高点、塑造未来产业格局的核心战场。自 2015 年起, 中国商业航天市场规模快速增长,2025-2030 年,中国商业航天行业将进入 发展黄金期,预计 2030 年中国市场规模望达到 7 万亿元至 10 万亿元。 当前全球各国积极加快布局、抢占先机:卫星频率和轨道资源是全球稀缺战 略资源。依据 ITU"先到先得"规则,率先完成部署的主体可优先锁定轨道与 频段使用权,这一规则重塑了全球太空资源竞争格局。在此背景下中国推进 "GW 星座""千帆星座"等国家级星座计划,拟在未来十年内完成上万颗部署。 政策大力支持,国家战略持续加码:我国政府有关部门连续颁布一系列法规 及政策文件,大力支持商业航天领域发展,强调加快布局卫星网络的紧迫性。 目前国家队和民营企业"双线并进"的技术研发模式形成了良好的互补效应。 中证卫星产业指数投资价值分析 中证卫星产业指数(931594.CSI)选取 ...
一键精准布局卫星全产业链——招商中证卫星产业ETF投资价值分析:基金投资价值分析
Guoxin Securities· 2026-01-18 07:10
证券研究报告 | 2026年01月18日 基金投资价值分析 一键精准布局卫星全产业链——招商中证卫星产业 ETF 投资 价值分析 一键精准布局卫星全产业链 当前全球各国积极加快布局、抢占先机:卫星频率和轨道资源是全球稀缺战 略资源。依据 ITU"先到先得"规则,率先完成部署的主体可优先锁定轨道与 频段使用权,这一规则重塑了全球太空资源竞争格局。在此背景下中国推进 "GW 星座""千帆星座"等国家级星座计划,拟在未来十年内完成上万颗部署。 政策大力支持,国家战略持续加码:我国政府有关部门连续颁布一系列法规 及政策文件,大力支持商业航天领域发展,强调加快布局卫星网络的紧迫性。 目前国家队和民营企业"双线并进"的技术研发模式形成了良好的互补效应。 中证卫星产业指数投资价值分析 中证卫星产业指数(931594.CSI)选取不超过 50 只业务涉及卫星制造 与发射、卫星地面设备制造、卫星导航、卫星通信以及其它技术研发与 应用环节的上市公司证券,以反映卫星产业上市公司证券的整体表现。 指数行业分布主要集中在国防军工行业,占比 59.26%,成分股研发支出占 比普遍较高,高于全市场水平和国证商用卫星通信产业指数。中证卫星产 ...
美股市场速览:科技板块内部出现分化
Guoxin Securities· 2026-01-17 15:12
Market Performance - The S&P 500 decreased by 0.4% this week, while the Nasdaq fell by 0.7%[1] - Small-cap value (Russell 2000 Value) outperformed with a gain of 2.2%, followed by small-cap growth (Russell 2000 Growth) at 1.9%[1] - Among 10 sectors, 6 sectors saw gains, with Food & Staples Retailing up 4.6% and Capital Goods up 4.4%[1] Fund Flows - Estimated fund flow for S&P 500 components was -$1.7 billion this week, down from +$130.2 million last week[2] - Semiconductor products and equipment saw a significant inflow of $37.6 million, while Software & Services experienced an outflow of $32.7 million[2] Earnings Forecast - The 12-month forward EPS estimate for S&P 500 components was revised up by 0.3% this week, consistent with last week[3] - The automotive sector led with an EPS increase of 1.3%, while the energy sector saw a decrease of 2.1%[3] Risk Factors - Key risks include uncertainties in economic fundamentals, international political situations, U.S. fiscal policies, and Federal Reserve monetary policies[3]