Group 1 - The report highlights that the macroeconomic environment is shifting towards a new growth paradigm, focusing on productivity enhancement, moderate inflation, and currency appreciation, which will lead to a systematic revaluation of equity markets [8][9] - The report indicates that the profitability of companies is expected to improve due to policies aimed at enhancing nominal GDP, which will directly translate into increased revenues and profits for listed companies [8][9] - The report notes that the relative attractiveness of various asset classes is changing, with equities showing significant potential for growth compared to bonds and real estate, which are under pressure [9] Group 2 - The report discusses the performance of the U.S. stock market, noting that the S&P 500 and Nasdaq experienced declines of 1.9% and 2.7% respectively, with most sectors under pressure [28][30] - The report mentions that the semiconductor sector saw a significant upward revision in earnings expectations, indicating a positive outlook despite recent market volatility [30] - The report highlights that the Hong Kong stock market faced significant pressure, with the Hang Seng Index declining by 5.1%, reflecting a broader trend of market pullbacks across various styles and sectors [28][30] Group 3 - The report emphasizes that the lithium battery industry is progressing steadily towards solid-state battery commercialization, despite ongoing internal competition [3] - The report notes that the wind power gearbox manufacturer, Delijia, is benefiting from industry prosperity and is experiencing high growth in performance [3] - The report indicates that the agricultural sector, particularly the pig farming industry, is undergoing orderly progress in reversing internal competition, with a positive outlook for the broader livestock cycle [3] Group 4 - The report highlights that the AI-driven growth in companies like Kuaishou and Baidu is significant, with Kuaishou's revenue exceeding 300 million RMB in a single quarter, and Baidu's new AI business revenue growing over 50% year-on-year [3] - The report discusses the recovery of recruitment demand in BOSS Zhipin, with stable growth in profit margins, indicating a healthy labor market [3] - The report mentions that the financial engineering sector is seeing substantial inflows into U.S. stock ETFs, with net inflows exceeding 100 billion USD, reflecting strong investor interest [3] Group 5 - The report indicates that the REITs market is experiencing a general decline, with the index down 1.0% for the week, although it remains relatively stable compared to equity assets [17] - The report notes that the infrastructure REITs are gaining traction, with significant support from government initiatives aimed at boosting consumption through REITs [19] - The report highlights that the turnover rate for REITs has decreased, indicating a potential slowdown in trading activity within this sector [17] Group 6 - The report discusses the performance of the convertible bond market, which has shown resilience amid stock market declines, with the index only down 1% compared to larger drops in equities [20] - The report highlights that certain convertible bonds are exhibiting strong defensive characteristics, particularly those with underlying stocks that are experiencing downward pressure [20] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the supply-demand dynamics in the convertible bond market, which could provide opportunities for investors [20]

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月23日 农产品研究跟踪系列报告（183） 优于大市 生猪行业反内卷有序推进，看好海内外牧业大周期反转 周度农产品跟踪：牛价有望持续上涨，反内卷支撑中长期生猪价格。 生猪：行业反内卷有望支撑猪价中长期表现。11 月 21 日生猪价格 11.67 元/ 公斤，周环比-0.4%；15kg 仔猪价格约 318 元/头，周环比+0.5%。 原奶：Q4 奶牛去化有望加速，原奶价格年底或迎拐点。11 月 13 日，国内主 产区原奶均价为 3.02 元/kg，周度环比维持，同比-3.2%。 豆粕：短期到港供给宽松，中长期供需支撑走强。11 月 21 日，国内大豆现 货价为4015 元/吨，周环比+0.08%，豆粕现货价为3070 元/吨，周环比-0.90%。 玉米：国内供需平衡趋于收紧，价格有望维持温和上涨。11 月 21 日国内玉 米现货价 2227 元/吨，周环比+0.72%。 橡胶：短期价格预计趋稳，中期看好景气向上。11 月 21 日，天然橡胶现货 价为 14800 元/吨，周环比+0.0%。 白鸡：供给小幅增加，关注旺季消费修复。11 月 21 日，鸡苗价格 3.48 元/ 羽，周 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Baidu Group is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Insights - Baidu Group reported a total revenue of 31.2 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7%. The adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.8 billion yuan, down 36% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 12% [1][10] - The company faced a significant impairment loss of approximately 16 billion yuan due to the rapid enhancement of high-performance computing capabilities, which is expected to mark a low point for profit margins, with future improvements anticipated [1][10] - Advertising revenue continued to be under pressure, declining 18% year-on-year to 15.3 billion yuan, accounting for 62% of Baidu's core revenue. The company is accelerating its transition to AI search, with 70% of search result pages now containing AI-generated content [2][16] - AI new business revenue reached 10 billion yuan, with subscription revenue from AI high-performance computing facilities growing by 128% year-on-year. The AI business is divided into three segments: intelligent cloud infrastructure, AI applications, and AI-native marketing services [3][25] Financial Performance and Forecast - For the fiscal years 2025 to 2027, the adjusted net profit is projected to be 19.6 billion yuan, 21.6 billion yuan, and 24.6 billion yuan, respectively, with downward adjustments of 7%, 11%, and 12% [29] - The company expects to see a gradual improvement in profit margins as resource utilization increases [3][25] - The financial forecast indicates a slight decline in revenue for 2025, with an estimated total revenue of 130.4 billion yuan, followed by a recovery in subsequent years [5][33]

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月23日 BOSS 直聘（BZ.O） 优于大市 招聘需求健康恢复，利润率稳健增长 收入同比增长 13%，经调整利润率达 46%。25Q3，公司营业收入 21.6 亿元， 同比+13%，环比+3%，达到公司 25Q2 业绩会的指引上限。其中来自网络招聘 服务 21.5 亿元。现金账单收入为 20.7 亿元，同比+14%，环比+0.1%，同比 增速加速（25Q1/Q2 增速为 6.3%/5.7%），低基数+企业招聘意愿恢复综合带 动。本季度毛利率为 85.8%，同比+2pct，环比+0.4pct。本季度销售费用继 续控制良好，25Q3 公司销售费用 3.9 亿元，同比-25%；销售费率 18%，同比 -9.1pct，环比-1.8pct。25Q3 公司经调整净利润 9.9 亿元，同比+34%。经调 整净利润率 46%，同比+7pct，环比+1pct。在经营杠杆下，公司预计 26 年利 润率继续提升。 商业化：付费企业数同比增长 13%，招聘需求保持恢复态势。2025Q3，平台 MAU 6380 万，同比+10%，环比 0.3%。B 端来看，累计 12 个月付费企业数 680 万，同比 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月23日 基金周报 ETF 简称统一规范正式落地，非货基"T+0.5"赎回时代来临 核心观点 金融工程周报 上周市场回顾。上周A股市场主要宽基指数全线下跌，沪深 300、上证综 指、中小板指指数收益靠前，收益分别为-3.77%、-3.90%、-5.10%， 创业板指、中证 1000、中证 500 指数收益靠后，收益分别为-6.15%、 -5.80%、-5.78%。 从成交额来看，上周主要宽基指数成交额均有所下降。行业方面，上周 银行、食品饮料、传媒收益靠前，收益分别为-0.87%、-1.36%、-1.39%， 综合、电力设备及新能源、基础化工收益靠后，收益分别为-9.47%、 -9.41%、-8.24%。 截至上周五，央行逆回购净投放资金 5540 亿元，逆回购到期 11220 亿 元，净公开市场投放 16760 亿元。除 5 年期和 10 年期外，不同期限的 国债利率均有所下行，利差扩大 1.22BP。 上周共上报 54 只基金，较上上周申报数量下降。申报的产品包括 1 只 REITs，3 只FOF，上证科创板芯片ETF、中证科创创业人工智能ETF、 易方达中证港股通信息技术 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月23日 锂电产业链双周评（11月第2期） 锂电行业持续反内卷，固态电池产业化稳步推进 行业研究 · 行业周报 电力设备新能源 · 锂电池 投资评级：优于大市（维持） 证券分析师：王蔚祺 010-88005313 wangweiqi2@guosen.com.cn S0980520080003 证券分析师：徐文辉 021-60375426 xuwenhui@guosen.com.cn S0980524030001 证券分析师：李全 021-60375434 liquan2@guosen.com.cn S0980524070002 联系人：王喆萱 wangzhexuan@guosen.com.cn 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 投资建议 【行业动态】 【新能源车产业链数据】 【锂电材料及锂电池价格】 • 锂盐价格走高，电芯报价上行。本周末碳酸锂价格为9.23万元/吨，较两周前上涨1.19万元/吨。相较两周前，三元正极、磷酸铁锂正极、负极、六氟磷酸锂、电解液、湿法隔膜报价均上 涨。本周方形三元动力电芯/铁锂动力电芯/储能用100Ah电芯/储能用280Ah电芯报价为0. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week (from November 17 to November 21, 2025), the median weekly return of stock - type ETFs was -4.57%. Among broad - based ETFs, the Shanghai 50 ETF had the smallest decline; among sector ETFs, the large - finance ETF had the smallest decline; among hot - topic ETFs, the bank ETF had the smallest decline [1][12][59]. - Last week, stock - type ETFs had a net subscription of 49.12 billion yuan. Among broad - based ETFs, the GEM - type ETF had the largest net subscription; among sector ETFs, the technology ETF had the largest net subscription; among theme ETFs, the pharmaceutical ETF had the largest net subscription [2][59]. - As of last Friday, Huaxia, E Fund, and Huatai - Peregrine were the top three fund companies in terms of the total scale of listed non - monetary ETFs. This week, GF CSI All - Index Food ETF and GF CSI A50 ETF will be issued [5][59]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs ETF Performance - Stock - type ETFs had a median weekly return of -4.57%. The median returns of Shanghai 50, CSI 300, A500, CSI 500, CSI 1000, Sci - tech Innovation Board, and GEM - type ETFs were -2.69%, -3.72%, -4.24%, -5.71%, -5.77%, -5.77%, and -6.01% respectively. The median returns of money - type, bond - type, commodity - type, and cross - border ETFs were 0.01%, 0.01%, -2.50%, and -4.87% respectively [12]. - Among sectors, the median returns of large - finance, technology, consumption, and cyclical sector ETFs were -4.42%, -4.43%, -5.31%, and -5.32% respectively. Among hot - topics, bank, liquor, and AI ETFs had median returns of -0.91%, -2.39%, and -2.53% respectively, showing relatively strong performance, while photovoltaic, new energy vehicle, and pharmaceutical ETFs had median returns of -11.19%, -8.28%, and -6.12% respectively, with relatively weak performance [15]. ETF Scale Change and Net Redemption/Subscription - As of last Friday, the scales of stock - type, cross - border, and bond - type ETFs were 3550.6 billion yuan, 921 billion yuan, and 718.8 billion yuan respectively. The scales of commodity - type and money - type ETFs were relatively small, at 230.5 billion yuan and 176.7 billion yuan respectively [17]. - Among broad - based ETFs, the CSI 300 and Sci - tech Innovation Board ETFs had relatively large scales of 1148.2 billion yuan and 201.8 billion yuan respectively. The scales of A500, Shanghai 50, CSI 500, GEM - type, and CSI 1000 ETFs were relatively small, at 189.4 billion yuan, 184.6 billion yuan, 171.4 billion yuan, 170.3 billion yuan, and 163.7 billion yuan respectively [17][20]. - Among sectors, the technology sector ETF had a scale of 404.9 billion yuan, followed by the cyclical sector ETF with a scale of 210.9 billion yuan. The large - finance and consumption ETFs had relatively small scales of 203.5 billion yuan and 186.9 billion yuan respectively. Among hot - topics, chip, securities, and pharmaceutical ETFs had the highest scales of 145.6 billion yuan, 139.4 billion yuan, and 102.1 billion yuan respectively [24]. - Last week, stock - type ETFs had a net subscription of 49.12 billion yuan and a total scale decrease of 115.443 billion yuan; money - type ETFs had a net subscription of 7.923 billion yuan and a total scale increase of 7.938 billion yuan. Among broad - based ETFs, the GEM - type ETF had the largest net subscription of 6.729 billion yuan, and its scale decreased by 4.125 billion yuan; the Shanghai 50 ETF had the smallest net subscription of 0.316 billion yuan, and its scale decreased by 4.83 billion yuan [27][28]. - Among sectors, the technology ETF had the largest net subscription of 5.694 billion yuan, and its scale decreased by 14.492 billion yuan; the large - finance ETF had the largest net redemption of 0.172 billion yuan, and its scale decreased by 8.739 billion yuan. Among hot - topics, the pharmaceutical ETF had the largest net subscription of 2.21 billion yuan, and its scale decreased by 3.886 billion yuan; the bank ETF had the largest net redemption of 1.849 billion yuan, and its scale decreased by 2.17 billion yuan [32]. ETF Benchmark Index Valuation - As of last Friday, the price - to - earnings ratios of Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, GEM - type, and A500 ETFs were at the 84.67%, 80.38%, 94.64%, 93.90%, 54.82%, and 83.67% quantile levels respectively, and the price - to - book ratios were at the 66.20%, 62.90%, 92.00%, 51.11%, 46.83%, and 83.09% quantile levels respectively. Since December 31, 2019, the price - to - earnings and price - to - book ratios of Sci - tech Innovation Board - type ETFs are currently at the 83.51% and 67.19% quantile levels respectively. Compared with the previous week, the valuation quantiles of A500 and CSI 300 ETFs decreased significantly [35]. - As of last Friday, the price - to - earnings ratios of cyclical, large - finance, consumption, and technology sector ETFs were at the 69.33%, 35.53%, 19.62%, and 88.79% quantile levels respectively, and the price - to - book ratios were at the 65.79%, 58.78%, 21.60%, and 75.19% quantile levels respectively. Compared with the previous week, the valuation quantiles of large - finance, cyclical, and consumption ETFs decreased significantly [38]. - As of last Friday, the price - to - earnings quantiles of bank, dividend, and military - industry ETFs were relatively high, at 99.84%, 99.26%, and 93.16% respectively; the price - to - book quantiles of dividend, AI, and robot ETFs were relatively high, at 96.54%, 94.39%, and 89.78% respectively. Compared with the previous week, the valuation quantiles of pharmaceutical and new energy vehicle ETFs decreased significantly [39]. - Overall, among broad - based ETFs, the GEM - type ETF had relatively low valuation quantiles; among sectors, the consumption and large - finance ETFs had relatively moderate valuation quantiles; among sub - topics, the liquor ETF had relatively low valuation quantiles [40]. ETF Margin Trading - As of last Thursday, the margin trading balance of stock - type ETFs increased from 47.328 billion yuan in the previous week to 48.368 billion yuan, and the short - selling volume decreased from 2.681 billion shares in the previous week to 2.608 billion shares [44]. - Among the top 10 ETFs with the highest average daily margin trading purchase amount from last Monday to Thursday, the Sci - tech Innovation Board ETF and GEM - type ETF had relatively high average daily margin trading purchase amounts. Among the top 10 ETFs with the highest average daily short - selling volume, the A500 ETF and CSI 300 ETF had relatively high average daily short - selling volumes [45][49][52]. ETF Managers - As of last Friday, Huaxia Fund ranked first in the total scale of listed non - monetary ETFs, and had a relatively high management scale in multiple sub - fields such as scale index ETFs, theme, style, and strategy index ETFs, and cross - border ETFs. E Fund ranked second, with a relatively high management scale in scale index ETFs and cross - border ETFs. Huatai - Peregrine Fund ranked third, with a relatively high management scale in scale index ETFs and theme, style, and strategy index ETFs [53]. - Last week, 8 new ETFs were established, and this week, GF CSI All - Index Food ETF and GF CSI A50 ETF will be issued [56].

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月23日 基金周报 ETF 简称统一规范正式落地，非货基"T+0.5"赎回时代来临 核心观点 金融工程周报 上周市场回顾。上周A股市场主要宽基指数全线下跌，沪深 300、上证综 指、中小板指指数收益靠前，收益分别为-3.77%、-3.90%、-5.10%， 创业板指、中证 1000、中证 500 指数收益靠后，收益分别为-6.15%、 -5.80%、-5.78%。 从成交额来看，上周主要宽基指数成交额均有所下降。行业方面，上周 银行、食品饮料、传媒收益靠前，收益分别为-0.87%、-1.36%、-1.39%， 综合、电力设备及新能源、基础化工收益靠后，收益分别为-9.47%、 -9.41%、-8.24%。 截至上周五，央行逆回购净投放资金 5540 亿元，逆回购到期 11220 亿 元，净公开市场投放 16760 亿元。除 5 年期和 10 年期外，不同期限的 国债利率均有所下行，利差扩大 1.22BP。 上周共上报 54 只基金，较上上周申报数量下降。申报的产品包括 1 只 REITs，3 只FOF，上证科创板芯片ETF、中证科创创业人工智能ETF、 易方达中证港股通信息技术 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, due to tight liquidity during the tax period and a sharp decline in the A - share market, the bond market fluctuated narrowly with slightly rising yields, and ultra - long bonds declined slightly. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds increased slightly and was very active. The term spread of ultra - long bonds remained flat, and the variety spread narrowed [1][3][10]. - As of November 21, the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 34BP, at a relatively low historical level. The spread between 20 - year CDB bonds and 20 - year treasury bonds was 13BP, at an extremely low historical position. Considering the economic situation and market sentiment, the probability of a bond market rebound is higher, and the spreads are expected to compress [2][3][11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Review - **Ultra - long Bond Review**: Last week, tight tax - period liquidity, a sharp A - share decline led to a narrow - range bond market with slightly rising yields and a small decline in ultra - long bonds. Trading activity increased slightly and was very active. The term spread remained flat, and the variety spread narrowed [1][10]. - **Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook** - **30 - year Treasury Bonds**: As of November 21, the 30 - 10 spread was 34BP. In October, economic downward pressure increased, with GDP growth at about 4.2% (down 1.1% from September), and deflation risks remained. The bond market is likely to rebound, and the 30 - 10 spread is expected to compress [2][11]. - **20 - year CDB Bonds**: As of November 21, the 20 - year CDB - treasury spread was 13BP. Similar to the 30 - year treasury bond situation, the bond market is likely to rebound, and the 20 - year CDB bond variety spread is expected to continue compressing [3][12]. - **Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview**: As of October 31, the balance of ultra - long bonds was 23.9 trillion, accounting for 15.0% of all bonds. Local government bonds and treasury bonds were the main varieties. By remaining term, the 30 - year variety had the highest proportion [13]. Primary Market - **Weekly Issuance**: Last week (November 17 - 21, 2025), ultra - long bond issuance decreased to 886 billion yuan. By variety, local government bonds were 811 billion, and bank sub - bonds were 65 billion. By term, 15 - year bonds were 395 billion, 20 - year were 191 billion, and 30 - year were 300 billion [18]. - **This Week's Planned Issuance**: This week's announced ultra - long bond issuance plan is 155 billion yuan, mainly including 153.8 billion yuan of ultra - long local government bonds [24]. Secondary Market - **Trading Volume**: Last week, ultra - long bond trading was very active, with a turnover of 926.1 billion yuan, accounting for 11.3% of all bonds. The trading activity increased slightly compared to the previous week [28]. - **Yield**: Last week, due to tight liquidity and A - share decline, bond yields rose slightly, and ultra - long bonds declined slightly. Yields of different - term treasury bonds, CDB bonds, local bonds, and railway bonds changed accordingly [38]. - **Spread Analysis** - **Term Spread**: Last week, the ultra - long bond term spread remained flat, with an absolute low level. The 30 - 10 treasury bond spread was 34BP, unchanged from the previous week, at the 14% percentile since 2010 [49]. - **Variety Spread**: Last week, the ultra - long bond variety spread narrowed, with an absolute low level. The 20 - year CDB - treasury spread and 20 - year railway - treasury spread decreased by 2BP, at the 11% and 12% percentiles since 2010 [50]. 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2512 closed at 115.57 yuan, down 0.51%. Trading volume increased slightly, and open interest decreased slightly [54].

Core Conclusions - The Asia-Pacific market experienced a "Black Friday" with significant declines primarily due to two factors: global liquidity expectations fluctuating and a sharp drop in sentiment observed through leveraged funds [1] - Historically, in bull markets, instances of breaking below the 60-day moving average are rare, and it typically takes about 10 days to recover. If a "time for space" strategy is needed, a maximum drawdown of around 15% can be tolerated, although current conditions differ from historical contexts [1][3] - Analyzing the recent bull market with over 2.5 times gains in specific sectors, a deviation of -1.5% from the logarithmic moving average is a favorable entry point, with a success rate of nearly 70% and an average gain exceeding 5% in the following month. Currently, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 and the ChiNext Index have not reached the -1.5% entry threshold, suggesting that the Science and Technology Innovation 50 may stabilize first during the pullback [1][4] Market Performance - The Asia-Pacific market faced widespread declines, with the A-share market's North China 50 and ChiNext Index dropping 9.04% and 6.15% respectively, significantly exceeding the declines in developed markets [2][10] - The overall performance of growth sectors, including electrolytes, lithium batteries, storage, photovoltaics, and rare earths, showed considerable pressure, with the number of rising and falling stocks converging to the second-lowest point of the year [2][12] Liquidity and Sentiment - The core driver of market adjustments is the significant volatility in global liquidity expectations, influenced by hawkish signals from multiple Federal Reserve officials and rising Japanese bond yields, which have tightened liquidity and increased selling pressure on risk assets [20][26] - The market sentiment has cooled significantly, with high-leverage investors showing a marked decline in activity, leading to direct selling pressure and amplifying market volatility [26] Bull Market Dynamics - Historical data indicates that in the past 30 years, there have been 59 instances of breaking below the 60-day moving average during bull markets, with an average recovery time of 11.1 days. Approximately one-third of these instances saw immediate recovery the next day [3][30] - The success rates for recovery at various time intervals (T+5, T+20, T+60, T+120) are 67.8%, 59.3%, 84.7%, and 83.1% respectively, indicating a generally favorable outlook for recovery in bull market conditions [30][31] Entry Points for Investment - The analysis suggests that a logarithmic moving average deviation of -1.5% is a high-probability entry point for investment, with a historical success rate of 68.15% and an average return of 5.71% for specific sectors during the 2019-2021 bull market [4][41] - Currently, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 and ChiNext Index are close to breaking below the exponential moving average of 60, but have not yet reached the -1.5% threshold, indicating potential for stabilization in the near term [47]