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华住集团-S(01179):Q3国内RevPAR拐点显现,看好龙头优势扩张与周期预期修复
Guoxin Securities· 2025-11-24 14:05
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Views - The company has shown a significant recovery in Q3, with revenue exceeding guidance and a notable increase in performance compared to previous quarters. The hotel revenue for Q3 reached approximately 30.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.5% [11] - The company is expected to maintain a stable growth trajectory in Q4, with projected revenue growth of 2-6% and domestic growth of 3-7%. The anticipated growth in franchise revenue is between 17-21% year-on-year [14][15] - The company is focusing on optimizing revenue management and strengthening direct sales channels, which has led to a slight recovery in domestic RevPAR, with a mixed RevPAR of 256 yuan, down only 0.1% year-on-year [12] Summary by Sections Q3 Performance - Q3 revenue was 6.96 billion yuan, up 8.1% year-on-year, surpassing the previous guidance of 2-6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.47 billion yuan, a 15.4% increase year-on-year [11] - The company’s domestic same-store RevPAR decreased by 4.7% year-on-year, showing a gradual recovery compared to earlier quarters [12] Membership and Revenue Management - The number of members in the company's loyalty program exceeded 300 million, a year-on-year increase of 17.3%. Member bookings increased by 19.7%, accounting for 74% of total room nights [12] - The company has successfully implemented revenue management strategies, resulting in a positive year-on-year growth in average daily rate (ADR) of 0.9% [12] Expansion and Profitability - The company opened 2,038 new stores and closed 483, resulting in a net increase of 1,555 stores. The total number of operating hotels reached 12,600, with a market share estimated at 11% [13] - Franchise revenue and gross operating profit (GOP) increased by 27.4% and 28.6% year-on-year, respectively, while direct store revenue and GOP decreased by 5.5% and 24.7% [13] Future Outlook - The company anticipates a stable or slight increase in domestic RevPAR in Q4, with overall core indicators expected to maintain a healthy development trend [14] - The management expects to exceed the initial target of opening 2,300 new hotels by the end of the year, supported by improved signing and conversion rates [13] Financial Projections - The company has revised its revenue growth projections for 2025-2027, expecting a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, 5.8%, and 6.2%, respectively. Adjusted net profits are projected to be 4.44 billion, 5.17 billion, and 5.78 billion yuan for the same period [15]
网易-S(09999):递延收入增长25%,经典游戏优异展现长期运营能力
Guoxin Securities· 2025-11-24 12:35
证券研究报告 | 2025年11月24日 网易-S(09999.HK) 优于大市 递延收入增长 25%,经典游戏优异展现长期运营能力 收入同比上升 8%,销售费率环比继续所上升。25Q3,公司实现营收 284 亿 元,同比上升 8%。Non-GAAP 归母净利润 95 亿元,同比增长 27%;Non-GAAP 归母净利率 33.5%,同比提升 5pct。25Q3,公司综合毛利率 64.1%,同 比上升 1.2pct,网易云音乐毛利率同比提升 2.6pct。25Q3,公司总经 营费率为 36%,同比上升 0.2pct,环比上升 4pct。其中销售费率 15.7%, 同比上升 1pct,环比提升 3pct,游戏及相关增值服务市场推广支出增 加。我们预计 25Q4 销售费率环比略下降。 游戏:《梦幻西游》等经典游戏展现长期价值。2025Q3,在线游戏业务收 入为 228 亿元,同比增长 13%。递延收入表现良好,25Q3 网易递延收入 195 亿元,同比增长 25%。25Q3 老游戏表现优异,公司持续布局全球化。 1)多款经典游戏持续受到玩家欢迎,体现了网易游戏强劲的长线运营 能力。自三季度起,《梦幻西游》电脑版的 ...
人工智能周报(25年第47周):谷歌发布Gemini3Pro和NanoBananaPro,阿里千问APP上线公测-20251124
Guoxin Securities· 2025-11-24 12:31
证券研究报告 | 2025年11月24日 人工智能周报(25 年第 47 周) 优于大市 谷歌发布 Gemini 3 Pro 和 Nano Banana Pro,阿里千问 APP 上线公测 人工智能动态:1)产品应用:谷歌推出新一代图像生成与编辑模型 NANO BANANA PRO;灵光上线 3 天扩容 8 轮,冲上 App Store 中国区免费榜第 六;元宝上线 AI 视频能力,实现"图文音视"多模态覆盖;1688 推出 跨境 AI 智能体"遨虾";阿里巴巴正式宣布"千问"项目,全力进军 AI to C 市场,在公测上线两天后,已冲入苹果 App Store 免费应用总 榜第三位;夸克全面接入千问对话助手,将发布全新 AI 浏览器;Kimi K2 Thinking 被 Perplexity 接入,系接入的唯一国产模型。;阿里国际站 面向全球市场推出 AI Mode;ChatGPT 在四地试点社交群聊功能。 2)底层技术:谷歌发布 Gemini 3 Pro,在一系列基准测试中进行了评 估,包括推理、多模态能力、Agent 工具使用、多语言性能和长上下文, 其在主要的 AI 基准测试中都远远优于 Gemini ...
小鹏汽车(XPEV):单三季度销量同比增长149%,打造物理AI未来出行全新范式
Guoxin Securities· 2025-11-24 11:18
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [7][5][48] Core Insights - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 20.4 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 102%. The sales volume reached 116,000 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 149.3% [2][11] - The company is focusing on developing a new paradigm for future mobility through physical AI, with significant advancements in its second-generation VLA system and plans for Robotaxi and humanoid robots [4][30][41] - The company maintains its revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at 88.5 billion, 128 billion, and 147.2 billion RMB respectively, while projecting net profits of -1.6 billion, 2.7 billion, and 4.7 billion RMB for the same years [5][48] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the gross margin was 20.1%, an increase of 4.9 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was -1.9%, improving by 16 percentage points year-on-year [3][14] - The automotive sales revenue for Q3 2025 was 18.05 billion RMB, up 105.3% year-on-year, while service and other income reached 2.33 billion RMB, up 78.1% year-on-year [2][11] - The company’s R&D expense ratio was 11.9%, down 4.3 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved cost efficiency [3][14] Sales and Delivery Guidance - The company delivered 42,000 vehicles in October 2025, a year-on-year increase of 76%, and expects to deliver between 125,000 and 132,000 vehicles in Q4 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 36.6% to 44.3% [4][20] - The sales volume for Q3 2025 was 116,000 units, with a breakdown of sales by model indicating strong performance across various models [21][20] Technological Advancements - The second-generation VLA system integrates vision and language processing, significantly enhancing the efficiency and responsiveness of the company's autonomous driving capabilities [30][34] - The company plans to launch three Robotaxi models in 2026, leveraging a pure vision approach without reliance on lidar or high-definition maps [36][40] - The new humanoid robot, IRON, is designed for various commercial applications and features advanced AI capabilities, including a unique energy system for enhanced safety and performance [41][44]
金融工程专题研究:量化赋能中盘宽基,精筑稳健超额Alpha——博时中证500增强策略ETF投资价值分析
Guoxin Securities· 2025-11-24 11:16
证券研究报告 | 2025年11月24日 金融工程专题研究 量化赋能中盘宽基,精筑稳健超额 Alpha——博时中证 500 增强策略 ETF 投资价值分析 指数增强型 ETF:指增策略新载体 指数增强型 ETF 作为指数增强策略的创新型产品,近年来持续扩容。指增 ETF 产品在资金使用效率、交易灵活性、费率结构和持仓透明度等方面相较 传统场外指数增强基金具有明显优势。截至 2025 年 10 月 31 日,全市场共 有 51 只指数增强策略 ETF,总规模 95.73 亿元,其中跟踪中证 500 的指数 增强 ETF 共 7 只,规模达到 25.92 亿元。 中证 500 指增产品持续扩容,历史超额收益较为稳健 中证 500 指数由剔除沪深 300 后市值靠前的 500 只股票构成,其行业分布 相对分散,当前估值处于历史均值以下,长期收益与中证 1000 接近,整体 弹性大于上证 50 和沪深 300,是具备成长性与分散度的中盘代表指数。 中证 500 是公募较早开始布局增强策略的核心标的之一,其产品数量和规模 均居前。截至 2025Q3,中证 500 指增基金规模达 493.46 亿元,规模占比 超全部增强 ...
英伟达(NVDA):海外公司财报点评:需求保持高景气度,Rubin将于26H2启动量产
Guoxin Securities· 2025-11-24 11:13
投资建议:考虑到 GB 系列产品与网络连接出货积极,Rubin 将于 26H2 启动量产,同时下游 AI 需求持续旺盛,我们上调收入预期,预计 2026-2028 财年 公 司收 入为 2130/3335/4279 亿美 元,上 调幅度 为 4%/23%/40%。预计 2026-2028 财年公司净利润为 1141/1876/2352 亿美 元,上调幅度为 11%/28%/40%,维持"优于大市"评级。 风险提示:下游 AI 应用发展与 ROI 低于预期;Blackwell 供应链风险;AI 芯片竞争加剧;宏观与地缘风险。 证券研究报告 | 2025年11月24日 英伟达(NVIDIA)(NVDA.O) 需求保持高景气度,Rubin 将于 26H2 启动量产 优于大市 财务表现:需求保持高景气度,FY26Q4 指引强劲。①整体:英伟达三季 度(均指财季,下同)收入 570.06 亿美元(同比+62%,环比+22%), 高于公司此前540(±2%)亿美元指引。GAAP毛利率73.4%(同比-1.2pcts, 环比+1pcts)。营业利润同比+65%至 360 亿美元,GAAP 净利润同比+65% 至 319 亿 ...
9月非农数据点评:迟来的指引,摇摆的降息
Guoxin Securities· 2025-11-24 11:04
Employment Data Overview - In September, the U.S. added 119,000 non-farm jobs, significantly exceeding the expected 50,000[2] - The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.4%, up from 4.3% in August[2] - The combined job additions for July and August were revised down by 33,000[5] Sector Performance - The private sector contributed 97,000 jobs, with notable gains in education and healthcare (59,000 jobs) and leisure and hospitality (47,000 jobs)[11] - Manufacturing, mining, and transportation sectors continued to decline, with losses of 6,000, 3,000, and 25,300 jobs respectively[12] - The construction sector showed improvement, adding 19,000 jobs, reversing previous declines[12] Wage and Inflation Insights - Average hourly earnings in the service sector increased by 3.8% year-on-year, while goods-producing sectors saw a 4.0% increase[24] - Overall wage growth lacks significant upward momentum, indicating limited inflationary pressure from wages[24] Federal Reserve Outlook - The September non-farm data is critical for the December FOMC meeting, influencing interest rate decisions[4] - Market expectations suggest a 25 basis point rate cut in December, though internal divisions within the Fed complicate the decision[26] - The recent data, while positive, may not be sufficient to shift the Fed's stance decisively towards rate cuts[26]
家电行业周报(25年第47周):10月家电内外销表现承压,12月空调出口排产降幅收窄-20251124
Guoxin Securities· 2025-11-24 09:33
证券研究报告 | 2025年11月24日 本周研究跟踪与投资思考:10 月家电内外销及 12 月空调排产在高基数下表 现均有所承压。10 月家电社零下降 15%,预计白电、黑电等零售额下降超 20%, 小家电表现略好;10 月家电出口额下降 13%,空调依然承压。 10 月高基数下家电零售需求承压,小家电表现略好。据统计局数据,10 月 我国社会消费品零售总额同比增长 2.9%,累计同比增长 4.3%;家电和音像 器材类限额以上零售额同比下降 14.6%,累计同比增长 20.1%。分品类看, 据奥维云网数据显示,10 月空调零售量同比下降 23.8%,线上/线下零售额 同比分别-23.7%/-48.9%,冰箱线上/线下零售额同比-21.9%/-42.7%,洗衣 机线上/线下零售额同比-19.0%/-39.1%;厨房大电线上线下零售额同样有所 下降。小家电零售额降幅更小,电饭煲线上/线下零售额同比-17.1%/-6.9%, 空气炸锅线上/线下零售额同比-10.1%/+9.8%;扫地机器人线上/线下零售额 同比-34.8%/-1.6%,洗地机线上/线下零售额同比-19.4%/-9.3%。 10 月空调销量下降 2 ...
英科医疗(300677):套行业回暖,海外产能释放在即
Guoxin Securities· 2025-11-24 08:02
Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company for the first time, with a reasonable valuation range of 44.15 - 49.34 CNY [5][60]. Core Insights - The disposable glove industry is expected to continue its recovery, supported by the company's capacity expansion and production line upgrades, which will enhance cost control and profitability [3][60]. - The company has successfully diversified its market presence, with significant growth in non-US markets and domestic sales, achieving approximately 45% growth in overseas non-US market sales and about 35% growth in domestic market sales in the first half of 2025 [2][21]. - The company is positioned as a leading player in the disposable glove sector, leveraging its scale of production, full industry chain layout, and global distribution network to increase its market share [3][60]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 74.25 billion CNY (+4.60%) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 9.24 billion CNY (+34.47%), while the non-recurring net profit decreased by 19.32% to 4.84 billion CNY [1][10]. - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 22.66% (-0.70pp), with a notable increase in management expense ratio to 7.39% (+2.35pp) due to investments in overseas factory construction [2][19]. - The company anticipates revenue growth of 99.9 billion CNY, 120.1 billion CNY, and 138.8 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 12.4 billion CNY, 17.0 billion CNY, and 20.1 billion CNY [3][60]. Market Dynamics - The disposable glove market is experiencing a recovery, with nitrile glove prices stabilizing and expected to gain further market share due to their superior properties compared to PVC and latex gloves [34][37]. - The company has adapted to changes in the market landscape due to US tariff policies, shifting its production capacity to non-US markets while maintaining full production and sales [2][21]. Production and Cost Structure - The company has an annual production capacity of 87 billion gloves, with 56 billion nitrile gloves and 31 billion PVC gloves, supported by advanced production technology and a decentralized control system [40][41]. - The company is actively implementing a global supply chain strategy, with new production capacity expected to help re-enter the higher-priced US market [2][45]. Management and Governance - The company's management team has extensive industry experience, with the founder and chairman having a deep understanding of the North American market and FDA regulations [32][33]. - The company has a clear ownership structure, with significant control held by the founder, ensuring strong governance [29][30].
家电行业周报(25 年第47 周):10 月家电内外销表现承压,12 月空调出口排产降幅收窄-20251124
Guoxin Securities· 2025-11-24 08:01
证券研究报告 | 2025年11月24日 家电行业周报(25 年第 47 周) 优于大市 10 月家电内外销表现承压,12 月空调出口排产降幅收窄 本周研究跟踪与投资思考:10 月家电内外销及 12 月空调排产在高基数下表 现均有所承压。10 月家电社零下降 15%,预计白电、黑电等零售额下降超 20%, 小家电表现略好;10 月家电出口额下降 13%,空调依然承压。 10 月高基数下家电零售需求承压,小家电表现略好。据统计局数据,10 月 我国社会消费品零售总额同比增长 2.9%,累计同比增长 4.3%;家电和音像 器材类限额以上零售额同比下降 14.6%,累计同比增长 20.1%。分品类看, 据奥维云网数据显示,10 月空调零售量同比下降 23.8%,线上/线下零售额 同比分别-23.7%/-48.9%,冰箱线上/线下零售额同比-21.9%/-42.7%,洗衣 机线上/线下零售额同比-19.0%/-39.1%;厨房大电线上线下零售额同样有所 下降。小家电零售额降幅更小,电饭煲线上/线下零售额同比-17.1%/-6.9%, 空气炸锅线上/线下零售额同比-10.1%/+9.8%;扫地机器人线上/线下零售额 同 ...