投资建议：伴随大模型在多模态、长文本、推理能力等方面的成熟，26 年有 望迎来更多成熟 Agent 产品的涌现，推理侧需求的增加将带动上游云计算厂 商的收入持续增长。另一方面，国内互联网巨头在 AI Capex 方面的投入落 后海外约一年，伴随后续大模型能力逐步提升和建设供给的释放，AI 对于巨 头主业的赋能将持续显现。此外，三季度预计为互联网巨头外卖大战的投入 峰值，四季度预计将环比看到阿里、美团和京东三家外卖亏损有所收窄。建 议聚焦 AI 主线选股，推荐阿里巴巴、腾讯控股。 风险提示：政策落地不及预期风险，技术商业化瓶颈风险，供应链波动 风险等。 重点公司盈利预测及投资评级 证券研究报告 | 2026年01月12日 2026年01月13日 人工智能周报（26 年第 2 周） 优于大市 Meta 收购 Agent 公司 Manus，智谱、MiniMax 上市 人工智能动态：1）公司动态：①千问 App 公测 30 天月活破 4000 万；②Meta 宣布收购 AI 智能体公司 Manus，创始人肖弘将出任 Meta 副总裁；③字节跳 动旗下海外 AI 助手 Dola 日活破千万；④马斯克旗下 xAI 收购第 ...

人工智能动态：1）公司动态：①千问 App 公测 30 天月活破 4000 万；②Meta 宣布收购 AI 智能体公司 Manus，创始人肖弘将出任 Meta 副总裁；③字节跳 动旗下海外 AI 助手 Dola 日活破千万；④马斯克旗下 xAI 收购第三栋建筑， 扩大人工智能算力规模；⑤亚马逊开放部分用户网页端对话 Alexa+，剑指 ChatGPT；⑥高德世界模型登顶 WorldScore，新产品或与扫街榜有关；⑦三 星：今年计划将搭载谷歌 AI 的移动设备产量翻倍至 8 亿台。 2）底层技术：①阿里升级新一代语音模型 Qwen3-TTS，可参考文字、声音生 成拟人音色；②字节推出形式化数学推理专用模型 Seed Prover 1.5；③腾 讯混元团队开源 HY-Motion1.0。④英伟达拟以 20-30 亿美元洽谈收购 AI21 Labs；⑤ChatGPT Health 推出，可以连接 Apple 健康、Function 和 MyFitnessPal 等应用，并给出不同的规划和建议。 3）行业政策：①12 月 31 日，四川省人民政府办公厅印发《四川省国家数字 经济创新发展试验区建设方案》。②发改委：国 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月12日 2026年01月13日 芯碁微装（688630.SH） 优于大市 全球领先的 PCB 直接成像设备及半导体直写光刻设备供应商 PCB：AI 算力 PCB 供不应求，PCB 厂商不断扩产，持续深化头部厂商合作。 AI 算力 PCB 需求爆发，20 层以上的高端 PCB 供不应求，带动胜宏科技、鹏 鼎控股等下游客户大幅扩产高端硬板产能，同时为了满足海外客户供应链要 求，各大 PCB 厂商在泰国积极投建厂房，上游 PCB 设备需求旺盛。2024 年， 公司销售 PCB 设备超 370 台，其中高阶产品占比达 60%以上。目前，公司在 高端 PCB 设备领域取得显著进展，产品性能已比肩国际厂商，市场占有率不 断提升，与鹏鼎控股、VTEC、CMK、胜宏科技等头部客户合作稳定。 泛半导体领域：泛半导体多领域协同突破，国产替代加速共振。公司泛半导 体直写光刻机主要覆盖载板、先进封装、掩模版制板、引线框架、功率半导 体、新型显示等领域。公司持续引领 IC 载板国产替代进程，凭借 3-4μm 高 解析度制程技术，产品技术指标已达国际一流水平。先进封装领域，直写光 刻技术在 AI 芯片内 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月12日 2026年01月13日 芯碁微装（688630.SH） 优于大市 全球领先的 PCB 直接成像设备及半导体直写光刻设备供应商 公司为国内直写光刻设备领军企业，产品覆盖 PCB 和泛半导体领域。合肥芯 碁微装电子装备股份有限公司成立于 2015 年，专业从事以微纳直写光刻为 技术核心的直接成像设备及直写光刻设备的研发和生产，为国家级专精新 "小巨人"企业。截至 2025 年 6 月 30 日，已为超过 600 家客户提供近 100 种类型的设备，覆盖全球十大 PCB 制造商及七成全球百强 PCB 制造商。2024 年公司营收 9.53 亿元，其中 PCB 系列营收7.82 亿元(YoY +32.5%)，占比82%， 泛半导体系列营收 1.10 亿元(YoY +9.2%)，占比 12%。 PCB：AI 算力 PCB 供不应求，PCB 厂商不断扩产，持续深化头部厂商合作。 AI 算力 PCB 需求爆发，20 层以上的高端 PCB 供不应求，带动胜宏科技、鹏 鼎控股等下游客户大幅扩产高端硬板产能，同时为了满足海外客户供应链要 求，各大 PCB 厂商在泰国积极投建厂房，上游 P ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alibaba-W (09988.HK) is "Outperform" [1][6][4] Core Views - The report anticipates a revenue growth of 2% year-on-year for 3QFY26, with an expected revenue of 285.8 billion yuan. The adjusted EBITA margin is projected to be 11.7%, reflecting a decline of 7.8 percentage points year-on-year [3][5] - The international digital commerce group and cloud intelligence revenue are expected to grow by 8% and 35% year-on-year, respectively, indicating continued acceleration in cloud revenue growth [3][10] - The report highlights the ongoing investment in AI and model training, which is expected to impact profitability in the short term but may enhance competitive positioning in the long run [11][22] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 3QFY26, Alibaba is projected to achieve a revenue of 285.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2%. The adjusted EBITA is expected to be 33.5 billion yuan, down 39% year-on-year [3][5] - The adjusted EBITA margin is forecasted at 11.7%, a decrease of 7.8 percentage points compared to the previous year [5][3] Cloud Business - The cloud segment is expected to see a revenue increase of 35% year-on-year in FY26Q3, with a stable EBITA margin. The Qwen model is anticipated to enhance the company's market share in overseas markets [10][11] E-commerce Performance - The e-commerce group's GMV is expected to grow by 3% year-on-year in FY26Q3, influenced by a weak retail environment. The report notes that the monetization rate is expected to align closely with GMV growth [19][21] - Instant retail is projected to incur losses of approximately 20-25 billion yuan, with a focus on maintaining market share through increased investment [21][22] Financial Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for FY2026-FY2028 have been slightly adjusted to 1,030.7 billion, 1,149.4 billion, and 1,275.1 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 1.5%, 2.8%, and 1.4%, respectively, due to a soft consumer environment [4][23] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for FY2026-FY2028 are revised to 101.6 billion, 135.4 billion, and 165.5 billion yuan, with adjustments of -9.1%, -6.6%, and -3.7% respectively [4][23]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the public utility and environmental sectors [1][5][8]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of the "environment + resource" investment logic, highlighting that many environmental companies possess resource attributes, which can lead to stable profit models through the extraction of valuable materials from waste [2][16][18]. - The report notes a decline in the utilization rates of photovoltaic and wind power generation in 2025, with photovoltaic utilization at 94.8% and wind power at 94.3% for the year-to-date [1][14]. Summary by Sections Investment Strategy - Public Utilities: Recommendations include major thermal power companies like Huadian International and Shanghai Electric, as well as leading renewable energy firms such as Longyuan Power and Three Gorges Energy [3][22]. - Environmental Sector: Focus on mature sectors like water and waste incineration, with recommendations for companies like China Everbright Environment and Shanghai Industrial Holdings [3][23]. Market Performance - The report indicates that the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.79%, with the public utility index increasing by 2.54% and the environmental index by 3.88% [1][24]. - In the power sector, thermal power saw a 2.40% increase, while renewable energy generation rose by 3.74% [1][25]. Key Data Overview - In November, the national electricity generation reached 779.2 billion kWh, with a year-on-year growth of 2.7% [45]. - The report highlights that the total electricity consumption for the year-to-date is 9,460.2 billion kWh, reflecting a 5.2% increase year-on-year [58]. Company Profit Forecasts and Ratings - Specific companies are highlighted with their respective ratings and financial metrics, such as Huadian International with a PE ratio of 10.2 for 2024 and 8.1 for 2025 [8]. - Other recommended companies include Longyuan Power, Three Gorges Energy, and China Nuclear Power, all rated as "Outperform" [8][22]. Special Research - The report discusses the shift from viewing environmental companies as cost centers to recognizing their potential for value creation through resource recovery and recycling [2][16]. - It also outlines the significant price increases in metals due to geopolitical tensions and supply chain concerns, which could benefit resource-oriented environmental companies [2][21].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company [6]. Core Insights - The company, Laopu Gold, is experiencing accelerated growth in its high-end gold jewelry retail business, with a projected revenue of 12.354 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 251%, and a net profit of 2.268 billion yuan, up 286% [2][4]. - The brand's positioning as a high-end product with a focus on traditional craftsmanship is driving its growth, supported by a fully direct sales model and a significant increase in both offline and online sales channels [2][3]. - The demand for gold jewelry is expected to continue growing due to the rising fashion attributes of gold products and the increasing purchasing power of younger consumers [3][57]. Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 4.84 billion yuan in 2025, with corresponding PE ratios of 22.4, 16.6, and 13.4 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][5]. - Revenue is expected to grow significantly, with estimates of 28.05 billion yuan in 2025, 37.25 billion yuan in 2026, and 45.20 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 156% from 2022 to 2024 [5][19]. Market Positioning - Laopu Gold operates 41 stores across 16 cities, with a strong presence in high-end shopping centers, and has achieved a significant increase in average store revenue, which reached 207 million yuan in 2024, up 120.28% year-on-year [2][19]. - The company has successfully integrated product design, processing, and retail into a cohesive management system, allowing it to maintain a competitive edge in a market characterized by product homogeneity [3][67]. Consumer Trends - The report highlights a shift in consumer preferences towards gold jewelry that combines fashion and value retention, particularly among younger demographics, who are increasingly contributing to gold jewelry sales [3][55]. - The high-end consumer market remains resilient, with luxury brands showing strong performance, which bodes well for Laopu Gold's positioning in the market [57][64].

国信零售观点：1）剔除菲安妮女包业务商誉减值影响的 1.71 亿元后，公司归母净利润达到 6.07-7.04 亿 元，同口径下同比增长 73.35%-101.01%，整体表现较好。2）单四季度看，预计归母净利润 1.19-2.16 亿 元，中值 1.67 亿元。3）门店拓展方面，2025 年净增门店 163 家，期末潮宏基珠宝门店总数达 1668 家。 2026 年预计开店势能依旧较强，加盟商仍有较强开店意愿。 整体上，公司四季度店效仍延续较好增速，12 月受基数走高、税改以及营销活动错期等影响略有放缓，但 随着当前临近春节旺季，以及公司产品持续上新，店效具备一定提速支撑。短期建议关注春节旺季，中长 期公司门店拓展+产品逻辑较顺。考虑公司四季度增长较好，以及费用率有望进一步优化，我们上调公司 2025-2027 年归母净利润预测至 4.91/6.28/7.36 亿元（前值分别为 4.87/5.67/6.42 亿元），对应 PE 分别 为 22.6/17.7/15.1 倍，维持"优于大市"评级。 证券研究报告 | 2026年01月13日 潮宏基（002345.SZ） 四季度净利润中值预计 1.67 亿元，全年净 ...

公用环保 202601 第 2 期 优于大市 2025 年 1-11 月光伏/风电发电利用率同比下滑，重视"环保+资源品"投资逻辑 市场回顾：本周沪深 300 指数上涨 2.79%，公用事业指数上涨 2.54%，环 保指数上涨 3.88%，周相对收益率分别为-0.24%和 1.10%。申万 31 个一 级行业分类板块中，公用事业及环保涨幅处于第 23 和第 16 名。电力板 块子板块中，火电上涨 2.40%；水电上涨 0.70%，新能源发电上涨 3.74%； 水务板块上涨 2.50%；燃气板块上涨 4.80%。 重要事件：1-11 月份，全国光伏/风电发电利用率分别为 94.8%/94.3%。电 力行业规划研究与监测预警中心公布 2025 年 11 月全国新能源并网消纳 情况，11 月光伏发电利用率 93.7%，同比-2.5pct，1-11 月光伏发电利 用率为 94.8%，同比-2.2pct；11 月风电利用率 93.1%，同比-2.7pct， 1-11 月风电利用率 94.3%，同比-2.0pct。 专题研究：从成本中心到价值创造，重视"环保+资源品"投资逻辑。过去 一年，受地缘政治紧张和供应链安全焦虑驱 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" [1]. Core Insights - OpenAI has launched ChatGPT Health, marking the beginning of a new era in AI-driven healthcare. This product allows users to connect their medical records and health apps to receive AI-assisted interpretations of complex medical reports and personalized health plans [2][11]. - AI for Science (AI4S) is identified as a crucial direction for artificial intelligence, with significant implications for various fields including drug development and materials science. It is expected to transition from laboratory stages to industrial applications, becoming a competitive area for global tech giants [2][24]. - The reliability of AI healthcare models is emphasized as critical for improving human health. The newly developed HealthBench aims to address existing evaluation system deficiencies by providing a more accurate assessment of AI models in real-world medical scenarios [17][21]. Summary by Sections OpenAI Launches ChatGPT Health - ChatGPT Health is designed to enhance user engagement with their health data, providing insights and recommendations based on individual health information [11][12]. - The system architecture of ChatGPT Health incorporates "data isolation" to enhance privacy, ensuring that medical data is securely managed and not used for training the main model [12]. AI for Science Initiates a New Era in Healthcare - AI4S is recognized as a strategic focus for major technology companies, with applications in drug discovery and materials science. The year 2026 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for AI4S technology [24]. - Significant advancements in AI-driven drug discovery have been reported, including a platform that dramatically increases the speed and accuracy of virtual drug screening [24][31]. Related Companies - Companies such as Dean Diagnostics and Crystal Technology are highlighted for their roles in AI diagnostics and drug development, respectively. These firms are positioned to leverage AI technologies to enhance their offerings in the healthcare sector [40].