- The report introduces a quantitative model called "250-day new high distance" to track market trends and identify market hotspots. The model is based on momentum and trend-following strategies, emphasizing the effectiveness of stocks reaching new highs as market indicators. The formula for calculating the 250-day new high distance is: $ 250\text{-day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{Close_t}{ts\_max(Close, 250)} $ where $ Close_t $ represents the latest closing price, and $ ts\_max(Close, 250) $ is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days. If the latest closing price reaches a new high, the distance is 0; otherwise, it is a positive value indicating the degree of fallback from the new high[11][12][13] - The report evaluates the model positively, citing its ability to capture market trends and identify leading stocks that perform well during market uptrends. It references studies by [George@2004], William O'Neil, and Mark Minervini, which support the idea that stocks near their 52-week highs tend to outperform those far from their highs[11][18][21] - The report provides backtesting results for the 250-day new high distance model. As of February 13, 2026, major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 2000, ChiNext Index, and STAR 50 Index have respective 250-day new high distances of 2.00%, 2.35%, 2.72%, 3.51%, 3.14%, 2.54%, 3.32%, and 5.50%[12][31] - The report introduces a quantitative factor called "Stable New High Stocks" to identify stocks with smooth price paths and consistent momentum. The factor construction involves screening stocks that have reached a 250-day new high in the past 20 trading days and applying criteria such as analyst attention (at least five buy or overweight ratings in the past three months), relative price strength (top 20% in 250-day returns), price path smoothness (measured by price displacement ratio), and sustained new high performance (average 250-day new high distance over the past 120 days and past 5 days)[24][26][27] - The report evaluates the factor positively, citing research by [Turan G Bali, Nusret et al@2011] and [Da, Gurun et al@2012], which highlight the superior performance of stocks with smooth price paths and strong momentum. The factor is designed to capture these characteristics effectively[24][26][27] - Backtesting results for the "Stable New High Stocks" factor show that 50 stocks were selected based on the criteria, with the highest representation in the technology and manufacturing sectors. Specifically, 21 stocks from the technology sector (dominated by the electronics industry) and 16 stocks from the manufacturing sector (dominated by the machinery industry) were included[27][32][30]

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月13日 **Makel'sid.** **Hil's.Makel's.** **Hil's.Makel's. **Hil's.Makel's. 乘势而起：市场新高趋势追踪：截至 2026 年 2 月 13 日，上证指数、深证 成指、沪深 300、中证 500、中证 1000、中证 2000、创业板指、科创 50 指数 250 日新高距离分别为 2.00%、2.35%、2.72%、3.51%、3.14%、2.54%、 3.32%、5.50%。中信一级行业指数中建材、机械、轻工制造、石油石化、 传媒行业指数距离 250 日新高较近，食品饮料、银行、综合金融、医药、 农林牧渔行业指数距离 250 日新高较远。概念指数中，造纸、互联网、 万得微盘股日频等权、云计算、储能、工程机械、电气部件与设备等概 念指数距离 250 日新高较近。 见微知著：利用创新高个股进行市场监测：截至 2026 年 2 月 13 日，共 1390 只股票在过去 20 个交易日间创出 250 日新高。其中创新高个股数量最多的 是机械、电子、基础化工行业，创新高个股数量占比最高的是有色金属、石 油石化、钢铁行业。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][17][23] Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 3.93 billion yuan for 25H2, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1%, with adjusted profit growing by 12% to 910 million yuan [1][8] - The company is focusing on shareholder returns, with over 13 billion yuan in cash reserves and plans for stock buybacks [1][8] - The online music revenue for 25H2 reached 3.02 billion yuan, up 8% year-on-year, driven by a 12% increase in subscription revenue [2][14] Financial Performance - The gross margin for 25H2 was 35%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to optimized music copyright costs [1][8] - The adjusted profit forecast for 2025-2027 is 2.22 billion, 2.49 billion, and 2.75 billion yuan, respectively, with a downward adjustment of 6%, 12%, and 18% [2][17] - The company plans to increase marketing investments in 2026 to enhance user engagement and content quality without compromising profit margins [1][8] Revenue Breakdown - The social entertainment services revenue for 25H2 was 910 million yuan, down 17% year-on-year, but the decline has narrowed compared to the previous half [2][16] - The company expects a rise in both volume and price for subscription services in 2026, with a projected growth in subscriber numbers [2][14]

Group 1: Market Overview - In January 2026, the media sector (Shenwan Media Index) rose by 17.94%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 16.29 percentage points, ranking second among 31 industries in Shenwan's first-level classification [4][22]. - The current TTM-PE of the Shenwan Media Index is 49.9x, which is at the 98.8th percentile of the past five years, indicating high valuation levels [4][22]. - Notable stock performances include BlueFocus, Tiandi Online, Tianlong Group, and Yidian Tianxia with significant gains, while Guigang Network, Hubei Broadcasting, and Beijing Culture experienced declines [4][27]. Group 2: Gaming Sector - In January 2026, a total of 177 domestic games and 5 imported games were approved, with the cumulative issuance of game licenses reaching 182, a year-on-year increase of 33.8% [29][31]. - The Chinese gaming market is projected to generate revenues of 350.79 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.7% [35]. - Mobile and client games are expected to generate actual sales revenues of 257.1 billion yuan and 78.2 billion yuan respectively in 2025, with growth rates of 7.9% and 15.0% [41]. Group 3: Film and Television Sector - The total box office in January 2026 was 1.964 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 69.2%, primarily due to fewer new releases [55]. - The upcoming Spring Festival period is expected to boost box office performance, with seven films scheduled for release, including "Fast Life 3," which has generated significant pre-release interest [66][72]. - The top-performing series in January included "Punishment 2" with 1.131 billion views, followed by "Pride" and "Xiaoyao" [74]. Group 4: AI Applications - The Seedance 2.0 model has made significant advancements in video generation, allowing for the creation of "director-level" audio and video content, which is expected to catalyze the AI comic series market [86][96]. - The competition for AI application traffic during the Spring Festival is intensifying, with major players like Yuanbao and Qianwen launching aggressive marketing campaigns [6][86]. - The integration of AI applications is anticipated to reshape the content service ecosystem, with a focus on companies like Zhejiang Wenlian and Huimai Technology [6][86]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The investment outlook remains positive for AI applications, gaming, and IP toys, with expectations of multiple catalysts during the Spring Festival [6]. - Recommended stocks for January include Giant Network, Kyeing Network, Bilibili, Kunlun Wanwei, and Zhongwen Online, with February recommendations maintaining a similar focus [6].

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月12日 2026年02月13日 金融工程日报 沪指震荡微升，算力产业链走强 市场表现：20260212 大部分指数处于上涨状态，规模指数中中证 500 指数 表现较好，板块指数中科创 50 指数表现较好，风格指数中中证 500 成长指 数表现较好。电子、电新、计算机、通信、机械行业表现较好，消费者服务、 农林牧渔、纺织服装、综合金融、银行行业表现较差。光模块(CPO)、光芯 片、智谱 AI、靶材、钨矿等概念表现较好，影视、动漫、谷子经济、建筑节 能、旅游出行等概念表现较差。 市场情绪：20260212 收盘时有 70 只股票涨停，有 23 只股票跌停。昨日涨 停股票今日高开高走，收盘收益为 2.45%，昨日跌停股票今日收盘收益为 -5.42%。今日封板率 78%，较前日提升 3%，连板率 35%，较前日提升 13%。 市场资金流向：截至 20260211 两融余额为 26444 亿元，其中融资余额 26278 亿元，融券余额 166 亿元。两融余额占流通市值比重为 2.5%，两融 交易占市场成交额比重为 9.0%。 折溢价：20260211 当日 ETF 溢价较多的是大盘价值 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月12日 2026年02月13日 MINIMAX-WP（00100.HK） 全球化多模态大模型公司，高性价比构筑核心竞争力 |  | 公司研究·海外公司快评 |  | 互联网·互联网Ⅱ | 投资评级：优于大市（首次）  | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 张伦可 | 0755-81982651 | zhanglunke@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980521120004 | | 证券分析师： | 陈淑媛 | 021-60375431 | chenshuyuan@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524030003 | 事项： 近期，开源项目 Clawdbot 在技术社区引发了关注。项目上线初期，MiniMax 即接入其技术生态，为开发者 提供模型能力层面的支持。 国信互联网观点： Minimax agent 能力突出，凭借质价比受到海外开发者好评。开源项目 Clawdbot（现已经更名 openClaw）在 技术社区爆火，Minimax 提供底层技术支持。作为一款主力模型，Mini ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - MiniMax is recognized for its high cost-performance ratio, which has garnered positive feedback from overseas developers. The company has integrated its technology into the open-source project Clawdbot, which has gained significant traction in the tech community [3][12] - The company has established a strong presence in over 200 countries, serving more than 200 million individual users and over 100,000 enterprise clients. Its overseas revenue accounts for 73%, with significant contributions from Singapore and the United States [5][23] - MiniMax's innovative models, including the MoE architecture and linear attention mechanism, enhance efficiency and reduce inference costs, positioning the company as a leader in the AI model space [6][38] Company Overview - MiniMax was founded in late 2021 and has rapidly expanded its services globally, focusing on AI products that cater to both consumer and enterprise markets. The company’s revenue model is primarily driven by its AI-native products, which account for 71% of its income [5][20] - The company has a young and dynamic research team, with a significant portion of its workforce having a background in research and development [35][32] Financial Performance - The company reported revenues of $30.52 million in 2024, with a projected increase to $53.44 million in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 175%. The revenue contributions from its main products are as follows: 29% from the open platform, 33% from Hailuo AI, and 35% from Talkie [58][61] - MiniMax's revenue growth is expected to continue, with projections of $80 million, $190 million, and $395 million for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, indicating a strong upward trajectory [9][61] Product and Technology - MiniMax's product offerings include Hailuo AI for video generation, Talkie for AI companionship, and a robust open platform that supports various AI applications. These products are designed to meet diverse user needs and have shown significant market acceptance [44][47][55] - The company’s AI models, particularly the M series, are designed for efficient coding and multi-agent collaboration, achieving a balance between performance and cost [41][38] Market Position - MiniMax has positioned itself as a key player in the AI market, particularly in the video and voice generation sectors, where it ranks among the top in global standings. The company’s innovative approaches and competitive pricing strategies have made it attractive to small and medium enterprises [39][40][44] - The company’s focus on high-quality, cost-effective solutions aligns well with the growing demand for AI applications across various industries, enhancing its market potential [10][62]

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors for analysis[1][2][3][4]

Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights the growth of the silver economy, particularly in the home appliance and light industry sectors, driven by the increasing demand for elderly care products enhanced by AI technology [7][8] - The demand for home care products is expected to rise significantly, with projections indicating that sales of home care devices for elderly individuals living alone will reach 14 million units by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 16% [7] - The report identifies three main categories of home care products: life care, emotional companionship, and health safety, which are essential for meeting the needs of the aging population [7] Group 2: Industry Analysis - The home care device segment is positioned as a critical entry point into the elderly care ecosystem, with advancements in AI technology improving monitoring and alert systems for elderly individuals [7] - The report discusses the potential market for elderly care robots, estimating that the market size for care robots in both domestic and international markets could reach tens of billions, driven by the increasing number of elderly and disabled individuals [8] - Smart mattresses are identified as a promising product category, with the domestic mattress market expected to reach approximately 65.9 billion RMB by 2024, and smart mattresses projected to increase their market penetration significantly [9] Group 3: Company Highlights - The leading company in the elderly care technology space is Yingzi Network, which offers a comprehensive home care solution through its "Yingzi Elderly Smart Body" product, integrating various functionalities such as health data monitoring and safety alerts [8] - Other notable players in the elderly care robot market include Ousheng Electric, which specializes in basic care robots, and major technology companies like Midea Group and Haier, which are expanding their product offerings in the elderly care sector [8] - The report emphasizes the strong growth potential for companies involved in the production of smart mattresses, with leading brands like Xilinmen and Mousse Holdings making significant advancements in AI-driven sleep solutions [9]

Core Insights - The core conclusion suggests a preference for equities over commodities, bonds, and cash, with an asset allocation of 35% in stocks, 25% in bonds, 25% in commodities, and 15% in cash, indicating the current economic cycle is in a recovery window [2] - AI has enhanced the investment clock by capturing multi-dimensional cycle turning points, showing that the dynamic asset allocation system has significantly outperformed traditional models since 2005, with an average net value increase of 4.48 times [2][23] - Emerging markets are highlighted as a strategic opportunity to reduce reliance on US stocks, with a recommendation to increase their weight to 18% due to their low correlation with developed markets, which can enhance the Sharpe ratio by over 40% [2][48] - The report anticipates a recovery in PPI by mid-2026, driven by supply-side constraints and low capacity utilization in certain industries, suggesting a focus on commodities with strong pricing power [2][61][66] - The pricing logic of US and Japanese bonds is undergoing a transformation, with a shift from absolute safety to a more complex pricing mechanism influenced by fiscal sustainability [2][67][76] Asset Allocation Strategy - The recommended asset allocation strategy is to maintain an aggressive stance on equities while using commodities to hedge against inflation, and to keep a neutral position in bonds to manage liquidity fluctuations [2] - The enhanced allocation strategy has shown a higher annualized return of 9.8% compared to traditional models, with a maximum drawdown of -18.3%, indicating better risk management [18] Economic Cycle Analysis - The improved investment clock divides the economic cycle into seven stages, allowing for a more nuanced understanding of asset performance across different phases, particularly emphasizing the transition from liquidity abundance to credit expansion [12][22] - AI models have been employed to automate the identification of economic cycle stages, significantly reducing the need for subjective judgment by analysts [32] Emerging Market Dynamics - Emerging markets are positioned as key players in the current investment landscape, with a focus on sectors supported by AI-driven capital expenditures and earnings expectations, despite challenges from currency fluctuations [49][53] - The report notes that the momentum factor is currently leading in emerging markets, with a strong preference for technology stocks that can deliver performance despite adverse currency conditions [56] Commodity Market Insights - The report predicts that PPI will turn positive in the first half of 2026, with commodity futures prices serving as a leading indicator for industrial price recovery [61] - There is a focus on sectors with low capacity utilization and strong supply constraints, which are expected to drive price increases in the commodity market [66]