Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [4] Core Views - The report highlights a bullish outlook on the livestock cycle, particularly for beef and dairy, indicating a potential reversal in market trends [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of leading companies in the industry, suggesting that they will benefit from improved cash flows and competitive advantages as the market stabilizes [3] Summary by Sections Livestock - Beef prices are expected to continue rising, with the average price for fattened cattle at 25.66 CNY/kg, up 0.59% week-on-week and 9.38% year-on-year [2] - The average market price for beef is 61.55 CNY/kg, reflecting a 1.05% increase week-on-week and a 21.28% increase year-on-year [2] - The report anticipates a turning point for raw milk prices in 2026, with current prices at 3.02 CNY/kg, down 0.33% week-on-week and 3.20% year-on-year [2] Swine - The report notes a supportive environment for pig prices due to capacity control measures, with current prices at 12.69 CNY/kg, up 1.44% week-on-week [1] - The price for 7kg piglets has surged to approximately 309.05 CNY/head, marking a 22.00% increase week-on-week [1] Poultry - The report indicates a slight increase in supply for broilers, with current prices at 7.52 CNY/kg, up 0.53% week-on-week [1] - The egg price in major production areas is currently 3.60 CNY/jin, reflecting an 11.46% increase week-on-week [1] Feed - The report suggests that the industrialization of livestock farming will deepen, with leading feed companies expected to enhance their competitive advantages through technology and service [3] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include: - Livestock: YouRan MuYe, Modern MuYe [3] - Swine: HuaTong Co., DeKang Agriculture, MuYuan Co., Wen's Food, TianKang Bio, ShenNong Group [3] - Poultry: LiHua Co., YiSheng Co., ShengNong Development [3] - Feed: HaiDa Group [3] - Pet Industry: GuaiBao Pet [3]

Economic Overview - In December 2025, China's GDP growth rate was 4.5% year-on-year, showing a recovery of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[1] - The industrial output increased by 5.2% year-on-year, with high-tech manufacturing significantly outperforming traditional industries, growing by 11.0%[10] - The service sector's production index rose by 5.0% year-on-year, indicating a strong recovery, particularly in modern services like IT and finance[10] Demand and Investment - Fixed asset investment saw a decline of 14.9% year-on-year, marking a significant drop of 3.8 percentage points from November[10] - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by only 0.9% year-on-year, reaching a new low for 2023[10] - Exports maintained a robust growth of 6.6% year-on-year, supported by resilient external demand[10] Employment and Policy - The urban unemployment rate held steady at 5.1%, performing better than seasonal trends[15] - Government spending has become a key support for domestic demand, although it has not significantly impacted traditional sectors like real estate and infrastructure[2] - The macroeconomic policy is focusing on structural support and precision measures to enhance productivity and promote high-quality service sector development[2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the public utility and environmental sectors [1][6][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights the launch of the 2026 incremental renewable energy project pricing mechanism in Shanxi Province, with a bidding range of 0.2-0.32 CNY/kWh and a total bidding volume of 9.576 billion kWh [2][14]. - It notes that over 26 cities in China have raised water prices in 2025, with adjustments typically ranging from 10% to 30% [3][17]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the carbon neutrality context, recommending investments in the renewable energy supply chain and integrated energy management [20]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.57%, while the public utility index increased by 0.06% and the environmental index by 0.27% [1][13]. - Within the electricity sector, thermal power increased by 0.35%, while hydropower decreased by 1.76% and renewable energy generation rose by 1.61% [1][22]. Important Events - The Shanxi pricing mechanism for renewable energy projects has a total scale of 95.76 billion kWh, with wind power at 35.27 billion kWh and solar power at 60.49 billion kWh [2][14]. - The bidding submission rate for both wind and solar power is set at 120% [2][14]. Investment Strategy - Recommendations include major thermal power companies like Huadian International and Shanghai Electric, as well as leading renewable energy firms such as Longyuan Power and Three Gorges Energy [4][20]. - The report suggests that nuclear power companies like China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power will maintain stable profitability [4][20]. - It also highlights the defensive attributes of hydropower stocks in a global interest rate decline environment, recommending Changjiang Power [4][20]. Special Research - The report discusses the challenges in adjusting water prices due to regulatory processes, with many water supply companies facing profitability issues [3][17]. - It notes that the average annual cost increase for the water supply industry is about 3%, leading to a situation where some companies operate under a "low price + loss + government subsidy" model [3][17]. Company Profit Forecasts - The report provides profit forecasts and investment ratings for various companies, all rated as "Outperform," including Huadian International, Longyuan Power, and China Nuclear Power [8][21].

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月30日 2026年01月19日 策略周报 活跃资金流入，长线资金流出——1 月第 2 周立体投资策略周 报 核心结论：①1 月第 2 周，资金入市合计净流入 72 亿元，前一周流入 715 亿元。②短期情绪指标处于 05 年以来高位，长期情绪指标处于 05 年以来中 低位。③从行业角度看，以成交额占比为例，过去一周国防军工、半导体、 电力设备等热度较高。 1 月第 2 周，资金入市合计净流入 72 亿元，前一周流入 715 亿元。资金流 入方面，融资余额增加 1045 亿元，公募基金发行增加 134 亿元，ETF 净赎回 711 亿元，北上资金估算净流出 43 亿元；资金流出方面，IPO 融资规模 20 亿元，产业资本净减持 164 亿元，交易费用 169 亿元。 短期情绪指标处于 05 年以来高位。短期情绪指标主要看换手率和融资交易 占比，最近一周换手率（年化）为 682%，当前处在历史上由低到高 92%的分 位；最近一周融资交易占比为 11.29%，当前处在历史上由低到高 90%的分位。 长期情绪指标处于 05 年以来中低位。长期情绪指标主要看大类资产比价， 一看价格对比 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月17日 2026年01月18日 2026年01月19日 农产品研究跟踪系列报告（191） 优于大市 牛价重启加速上涨，看好肉牛周期反转 周度农产品跟踪：牛价有望持续上涨，反内卷支撑中长期生猪价格。 生猪：反内卷有望支撑猪价中长期表现。2026 年 1 月 16 日生猪价格 12.69 元/公斤，周环比+1.44%；7kg 仔猪价格约 309.05 元/头，周环比+22.00%。 白鸡：供给小幅增加，关注旺季消费修复。2026 年 1 月 16 日，鸡苗价格 3.07 元/羽，周环比+0.00%；毛鸡价格 7.52 元/公斤，周环比+0.53%。 黄鸡：供给维持底部，有望率先受益内需改善。2026 年 1 月 15 日浙江快大 三黄鸡/青脚麻鸡/雪山草鸡斤价分别为 4.8/6.0/6.6 元，周环比分别 -2.04%/+0.00%/-8.33%。 鸡蛋：在产父母代存栏处于高位，中期供给压力较大。2026 年 1 月 16 日， 鸡蛋主产区价格 3.60 元/斤，周环比+11.46%。 肉牛：新一轮牛价上涨开启，看好牛周期反转上行。2026 年 1 月 16 日，国 内育肥公牛出 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve rapid growth in 2025, with projected revenue of 57-60 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 12%-17%. The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders is estimated to be between 1.95-2.20 billion yuan, indicating a significant year-on-year growth of 114%-141% [1][4]. - The company has adopted an "All in AI" strategic direction, focusing on AI battery applications across various sectors, including AI PCs, AI headphones, AI glasses, AI toys, and AI servers. The company has established partnerships with leading clients in these areas, contributing to substantial revenue growth [2][4]. - The company plans to raise up to 800 million yuan through a private placement to fund the construction of a 3GWh energy storage cell project and a production line for 32 million steel-shell stacked batteries, aligning with the increasing demand for high energy density and safety in AI-related products [3][4]. Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenues of 58.5 billion yuan for 2025, with a net profit of 2.08 billion yuan. The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 2.08 yuan, with a dynamic price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 35.3 [4][5]. - The financial projections for 2025-2027 indicate a net profit growth of 127% in 2025, followed by 86% in 2026 and 22% in 2027. The expected revenues for these years are 58.51 billion yuan, 70.53 billion yuan, and 80.25 billion yuan, respectively [5][4]. - Key financial metrics include a projected EBIT margin of 5.5% in 2025, a return on equity (ROE) of 8.2%, and a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 2.80 [5][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the food and beverage industry [5][4]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of cost fluctuations as a significant factor affecting short-term performance in the consumer goods sector, where operating costs account for approximately 70% of revenue [12][13]. - Historical analysis indicates that material cost declines typically occur during commodity bear markets or due to supply-demand changes in specific agricultural products [17][18]. - The effective transmission of cost benefits to company performance is often non-linear, influenced by market competition, demand stability, and cost control capabilities [24][25]. Summary by Sections Cost Decline Impact on Consumer Goods - Cost fluctuations are crucial for short-term performance, with material costs making up 65%-85% of operating costs [12][13]. - Cost benefits are most effectively realized when competition is stable, demand is not shrinking, and companies have strong cost management [24][25]. 2026 Cost Benefits: Sunflower Seeds and Konjac Snacks - Sunflower seed prices are expected to decline in 2026, benefiting leading companies like Qiaqia Food, which derives over 60% of its revenue from sunflower seeds [33][34]. - The konjac powder price is projected to decrease by 10%-20% in 2026, positively impacting leading companies such as Weidong Delicious and Yanjinpuzi, which have significant revenue contributions from konjac snacks [45][46]. Company Profit Forecasts and Investment Ratings - Qiaqia Food is expected to see a profit recovery due to lower sunflower seed costs, with projected revenues of 6,810 million in 2025 and a net profit of 382 million [44]. - Weidong Delicious is anticipated to achieve revenues of 7,403 million in 2025, with a net profit of 1,420 million, benefiting from a strong brand presence in the konjac market [56]. - Yanjinpuzi is also expected to see positive contributions to its overall margin from declining konjac powder prices, with a projected revenue increase [56].

市场表现：20260119 规模指数中中证 2000 指数表现较好，板块指数中深 证综指表现较好，风格指数中中证 500 价值指数表现较好。消费者服务、石 油石化、电新、基础化工、建材行业表现较好，计算机、通信、银行、医药、 电子行业表现较差。特高压、中航系、航空发动机、智能电网、泛在电力物 联网等概念表现较好，网络优化、光模块(CPO)、秘塔 AI 搜索、半导体硅片、 炒股软件等概念表现较差。 证券研究报告 | 2026年01月19日 金融工程日报 沪指午后回暖，特高压、中航系概念爆发 市场情绪：20260119 收盘时有 103 只股票涨停，有 31 只股票跌停。昨日 涨停股票今日收盘收益为 2.62%，昨日跌停股票今日收盘收益为-4.27%。今 日封板率 78%，较前日提升 22%，连板率 20%，较前日提升 7%。 市场资金流向：截至 20260116 两融余额为 27315 亿元，其中融资余额 27144 亿元，融券余额 171 亿元。两融余额占流通市值比重为 2.7%，两融 交易占市场成交额比重为 11.0%。 折溢价：20260116 当日 ETF 溢价较多的是科创 100 增强 ETF，ETF ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the home appliance industry [5][6][12] Core Insights - The home appliance sector is expected to recover in 2026, driven by the continuation of national subsidies and improvements in export performance. It is recommended to actively invest in leading white goods companies [1][12][18] - December retail performance for home appliances showed signs of bottoming out, with major appliances experiencing a decline of over 20% in domestic retail sales, while small appliances showed slightly better demand [1][19] - The report highlights that the U.S. home appliance retail sales saw a slight increase in November, indicating a gradual return to stable growth despite challenges such as tariffs and inflation [3][12] Summary by Sections 1. Core Recommendations - Key recommendations include investing in leading companies in the white goods sector such as Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, TCL Smart Home, Gree Electric, and Hisense Home Appliances. For small appliances, Stone Technology and Bear Electric are recommended [4][12][13] 2. Research Tracking and Investment Thoughts - December retail performance for home appliances continued to face pressure due to high base effects, with significant declines in major appliances. However, small appliances showed relative stability, particularly in air fryers [1][19] - December exports of home appliances decreased by 8.1% year-on-year, with air conditioners facing the most significant pressure, while refrigerators and washing machines showed modest growth [2][37] - U.S. home appliance retail sales increased by 0.8% year-on-year in November, with inventory levels returning to normal [3][12] 3. Key Data Tracking - The home appliance sector achieved a relative return of +0.23% this week compared to the broader market [49] - Raw material prices for copper and aluminum decreased by 0.5% and 0.7% respectively, while cold-rolled steel prices also saw a decline [51] - Shipping indices for routes to the U.S. West Coast, East Coast, and Europe showed slight increases, indicating a stabilization in shipping costs [64] 4. Company Announcements and Industry Dynamics - Notable company announcements include Midea Group's ongoing efforts in overseas markets and Gree Electric's dividend distribution plans [71][72] - The report discusses the structural adjustments in the air conditioning export market and the anticipated trends for 2026, highlighting the challenges and opportunities in the global supply chain [74]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the public utility and environmental sectors [6][8]. Core Views - The report highlights the launch of the 2026 incremental renewable energy project pricing mechanism in Shanxi Province, with a bidding range of 0.2-0.32 CNY/kWh and a total bidding volume of 9.576 billion kWh, including 3.527 billion kWh from wind power and 6.049 billion kWh from solar power [2][14]. - It notes that over 26 cities in China have raised water prices in 2025, with adjustments typically ranging from 10% to 30%, driven by rising operational costs and the need for sustainable pricing mechanisms [3][17][19]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.57%, while the public utility index increased by 0.06% and the environmental index by 0.27% [13][22]. - Within the electricity sector, thermal power increased by 0.35%, while hydropower decreased by 1.76%, and renewable energy generation rose by 1.61% [13][23]. Important Events - The Shanxi pricing mechanism for renewable energy projects has a total scale of 95.76 billion kWh, with a bidding upper limit of 0.32 CNY/kWh and a lower limit of 0.2 CNY/kWh, effective for 10 years [2][14]. Investment Strategy - Recommendations include major thermal power companies like Huadian International and Shanghai Electric, as well as leading renewable energy firms such as Longyuan Power and Three Gorges Energy [4][20]. - The report suggests that the nuclear power sector will maintain stable profitability, recommending companies like China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power [4][20]. - In the environmental sector, it advises focusing on companies with strong cash flow in water and waste management, such as China Everbright Environment and Shanghai Industrial Holdings [21]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - Huadian International (600027.SH) is rated "Outperform" with an expected EPS of 0.46 CNY for 2024 and a PE ratio of 10.1 [8]. - Longyuan Power (001289.SZ) is also rated "Outperform" with an expected EPS of 0.75 CNY for 2024 and a PE ratio of 20.8 [8]. - China Nuclear Power (601985.SH) is rated "Outperform" with an expected EPS of 0.46 CNY for 2024 and a PE ratio of 20.9 [8].