证券研究报告 | 2026年01月25日 2026年01月26日 人工智能周报（26 年第 4 周） 优于大市 MiniMax Agent 2.0 正式发布，百度文心 5.0 上线 人工智能动态：1）公司动态：①字节扣子 2.0 发布；②安克与飞书联合 发布"AI 录音豆"；③MiniMax Agent 2.0 正式推出；④美国 AI 创企 Humans&获 4.8 亿美元种子轮融资；⑤特斯拉人形机器人 Optimus 计划 于 2027 年公售；⑥谷歌 Gemini 上线免费 SAT 模拟考功能；⑦xAI Grok Imagine 推出 10 秒视频生成功能。 2）底层技术：①智谱发布并开源混合思考模型 GLM-4.7-Flash；② DeepSeek 新模型"MODEL1"曝光；③阿里通义千问开源 Qwen3-TTS 系列 语音生成模型；④百度推出文心 5.0；⑤谷歌 DeepMind 发布 D4RT 四维 视觉 AI 模型。 投资建议：伴随大模型在多模态、长文本、推理能力等方面的成熟，26 年有望迎来更多成熟 Agent 产品的涌现，推理侧需求的增加将带动上游 云计算厂商的收入持续增长。另一方面，国内互 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月25日 2026年01月26日 ETF 周报 上周沪深 300ETF 净赎回超 2000 亿元 ETF 业绩表现 上周（2026 年 01 月 19 日至 2026 年 01 月 23 日，下同）股票型 ETF 周度收益率中位数为 0.95%。宽基 ETF 中，中证 500ETF 涨跌幅中位 数为 4.34%，收益最高。按板块划分，周期 ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 3.52%， 收益最高。按主题进行分类，光伏 ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 6.87%，收益最 高。 ETF 规模变动及净申赎 上周股票型 ETF 净赎回 3380.98 亿元，总体规模减少 3098.29 亿元。在宽 基 ETF 中，上周中证 500ETF 净赎回最少，为 84.27 亿元；按板块来看， 周期 ETF 净申购最多，为 293.38 亿元；按热点主题来看，芯片 ETF 净申 购最多，为 127.74 亿元。 ETF 基准指数估值情况 在宽基 ETF 中，创业板类、上证 50ETF 的估值分位数相对较低；按板块来 看，大金融、消费 ETF 的估值分位数相对温和；按照细分主题来看，酒、 新能车 ETF 的估值分位 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月25日 2026年01月26日 | 证券分析师：戴丹苗 | 证券分析师：赵婧 | | --- | --- | | 0755-81982379 | 0755-22940745 | | daidanmiao@guosen.com.cnzhaojing@guosen.com.cn | | | S0980520040003 | S0980513080004 | | 基础数据 | | | 中债综合指数 | 254.4 | | 中债长/中短期指数 | 245.4/209.1 | | 银行间国债收益(10Y) | 1.83 | | 企业/公司/转债规模(千亿) | 78.7/22.4/5.6 | | 市场走势 | | 公募 REITs 周报（第 51 期） 指数大幅上行，多只公募 REITs 终止发行 核心观点 固定收益周报 主要结论：本周 REITs 市场大幅上行，中证 REITs 指数周涨 1.7%，新型基础 设施、消费类、市政设施 REITs 涨幅突出。从主要指数周涨跌幅对比来看， 中证转债>中证 REITs>中证全债>沪深 300。截至 2026 年 1 月 23 日，产权类 RE ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the social services sector, indicating expected performance above the market benchmark by over 10% [3][28]. Core Insights - The silver economy is gaining traction with active policy support from multiple government departments aimed at fostering the development of elderly care services and enhancing consumption potential [2][17]. - The Spring Festival travel rush is anticipated to significantly boost travel demand, with projections of approximately 95 million air passengers during the period [2][20]. - The consumer services sector outperformed the market, with a reported increase of 1.52%, surpassing the market by 2.71 percentage points during the review period [1][12]. Industry Dynamics - Recent policies have been introduced to cultivate elderly care service providers, with companies like New Oriental and China Travel Group launching initiatives targeting the silver economy [2][17][18]. - The Spring Festival travel period is expected to see a substantial increase in passenger numbers, with a forecast of 22.4 million travelers in Hainan, marking a 5.3% increase year-on-year [2][19]. - The IPO activity in the chain industry remains robust, with companies like Yuanji Food and Guming Tea achieving significant milestones in store openings and financial performance [2][21]. Stock Performance - Notable stock performances in the social services sector include increases of 26.86% for Tongdao Liepin and 17.50% for Keri International during the review period [1][15]. - Conversely, Ctrip Group saw a decline of 18.63%, indicating volatility within the sector [1][15]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as China Duty Free, Guming, Huazhu Group, and Ctrip Group, among others, as potential investment opportunities [3][28]. - Long-term recommendations include companies like Meituan, Mijia Group, and various educational and travel service providers, reflecting a diversified approach to investment in the sector [3][28].

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月26日 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2026-01-23 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 4136.16 | 14439.65 | 4702.49 | 15806.71 | 4234.46 | 1553.70 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | 0.32 | 0.78 | -0.44 | 1.02 | 1.42 | 0.78 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 13368.57 | 17483.67 | 7556.17 | 6259.26 | 8169.09 | 1107.67 | $\frac{\pi}{100}$$\frac{\pi}{100}$$\frac{\pi}{100}$$\frac{\pi}{100}$$\frac{\pi}{100}$$\frac{\pi}{100}$$\frac{\pi}{100}$$\frac{\pi}{100}$$\frac{\pi}{100}$$\fr ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company [3][5]. Core Insights - The company has a strong R&D capability and a solid long-term operational experience, particularly with its evergreen IPs "Zhengtu" and "Qiuqiu" [3][31]. - The new product "Supernatural Action Group" has quickly gained popularity, showcasing significant long-term operational potential [3][38]. - Revenue is expected to grow significantly, with projections of CNY 53.7 billion, CNY 92.2 billion, and CNY 110.9 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 83.9%, 71.6%, and 20.3% [3][48]. Financial Projections - Revenue and net profit forecasts for the company are as follows: - 2025: Revenue of CNY 53.7 billion, net profit of CNY 24.1 billion - 2026: Revenue of CNY 92.2 billion, net profit of CNY 45.3 billion - 2027: Revenue of CNY 110.9 billion, net profit of CNY 51.0 billion [3][48]. - The company's gross margin is expected to remain high, around 90% for self-operated games [21][44]. - The report anticipates a decrease in the sales expense ratio due to rapid revenue growth, projecting it to be 26.0%, 24.5%, and 25.0% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [44][45]. Company Overview - Founded in 2004 by Shi Yuzhu, the company has evolved from its origins as Zhengtu Network and has established itself as a leading game developer in China [8][14]. - The company has a strong portfolio of self-developed games, which contribute significantly to its revenue, with a gross margin close to 90% [21][28]. - The management team is experienced, with key figures having over 20 years of tenure at the company, ensuring stability and continuity in leadership [11][12]. Market Position - The domestic gaming market is projected to exceed CNY 350 billion, with the company holding a market share of approximately 1.5% [14][18]. - The company ranks 29th among global mobile game publishers in terms of revenue for 2025, indicating a strong competitive position within the industry [14][18].

Investment Rating - The food and beverage industry maintains an "Outperform" rating [4][5]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector's fund holding ratio is 4.48%, with a slight decrease of 0.25 percentage points from the previous quarter, ranking eighth among Shenwan's primary industries. The sector continues to be overweight, with an overweight ratio increasing by 0.02 percentage points [1][11]. - The white liquor sector remains the most heavily weighted, but its overweight ratio has decreased. Conversely, the dairy, snacks, and seasoning sectors have seen an increase in fund holding ratios [2][16]. - Key individual stocks such as Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye have seen a decrease in their heavy holding ratios, while Yuran Dairy and Angel Yeast have received increased allocations [3][27]. Summary by Sections Fund Holdings Analysis - The food and beverage industry has a fund holding ratio of 4.48%, with a total heavy holding market value of approximately 117.8 billion yuan. The sector's overweight ratio is 0.64%, indicating a maintained overweight status [1][11]. Subsector Analysis - The white liquor sector's fund holding ratio is 3.32%, with an overweight ratio of 0.84%. Excluding Kweichow Moutai, the ratio drops to 1.84% with an overweight ratio of 0.85%. The dairy sector's fund holding ratio has increased to 0.25%, ranking third among subsectors [2][16][17]. Individual Stock Analysis - Kweichow Moutai's heavy holding ratio has decreased to 1.47%, despite an increase in the number of funds holding it to 296. Other major stocks in the white liquor sector, such as Wuliangye and Shanxi Fenjiu, have also seen declines in their heavy holding ratios [3][27][28].

核心观点 固定收益周报 超长债复盘：上周 12 月和四季度经济数据公布，四季度 GDP 增速 4.5%， 2025 年全年 GDP 增速 5%圆满完成经济目标，我们估算的 12 月月度 GDP 增速为 4.5%，A 股降温，MLF 净投放 7,000 亿，债市继续反弹，超长债 补涨。成交方面，上周超长债交投活跃度大幅上升，交投非常活跃。利 差方面，上周超长债期限利差走平，品种利差涨跌互现。 超长债投资展望： 证券研究报告 | 2026年1月25日 超长债周报 四季度 GDP 增速 4.5%，超长债补涨 30 年国债：截至 1 月 23 日，30 年国债和 10 年国债利差为 46BP，处于 历史偏低水平。从国内经济数据来看，12 月经济下行压力有所缓解。我 们测算的 12 月国内 GDP 同比增速约 4.5%，增速较 11 月回升 0.4%。通 胀方面，12 月 CPI 为 0.8%，PPI 为-1.9%，通缩风险继续缓解。我们认 为，当前债市震荡概率更大。一方面，2024 年四季度以来的经济企稳， 主要来自于中央加杠杆的托底。本周 30-10 利差高位企稳，预计近期利 差高位震荡为主。 20 年国开债：截至 ...

Investment Rating - The food and beverage industry maintains an "Outperform" rating [4][5][35] Core Views - The food and beverage sector's fund holding ratio is 4.48%, with a slight decrease of 0.25 percentage points from the previous quarter, ranking eighth among Shenwan's primary industries. The sector continues to be overweight, with an overweight ratio increasing by 0.02 percentage points [1][11] - The white liquor sector remains the most heavily weighted, but its overweight ratio has decreased. Conversely, the dairy, snacks, and seasoning sectors have seen an increase in fund holding ratios [2][16] - Key individual stocks such as Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye have seen a decrease in their heavy holding ratios, while Yuran Dairy and Angel Yeast have received increased allocations [3][27] Summary by Sections Fund Holdings Analysis - The food and beverage industry has a fund holding ratio of 4.48%, with a total institutional heavy holding market value of approximately 117.8 billion yuan [1][11] - The white liquor sector's fund holding ratio is 3.32%, while the ratio excluding Kweichow Moutai is 1.84% [2][16] Subsector Performance - White liquor: Fund holding ratio decreased by 0.37 percentage points to 3.32%, with an overweight ratio down to 0.84% [2][16] - Dairy: Fund holding ratio increased by 0.10 percentage points to 0.25%, with an overweight ratio up to -0.16% [17] - Snacks: Fund holding ratio increased by 0.03 percentage points to 0.22%, with an overweight ratio up to 0.12% [17] Individual Stock Analysis - Kweichow Moutai's heavy holding ratio decreased to 1.47%, despite an increase in the number of funds holding it to 296 [3][27] - Wuliangye's heavy holding ratio decreased to 0.41%, with a reduction in the number of funds holding it [3][27] - Yuran Dairy's heavy holding ratio increased to 0.07%, indicating a positive shift in fund allocations [3][27]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company [3][5]. Core Insights - The company has a strong R&D capability and a solid long-term operational experience, particularly with its evergreen IPs "Zhengtu" and "Qiuqiu" [3][31]. - The new product "Supernatural Action Group" has quickly gained popularity, showcasing significant long-term operational potential [3][38]. - Revenue is expected to grow significantly, with projections of CNY 53.7 billion, CNY 92.2 billion, and CNY 110.9 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 83.9%, 71.6%, and 20.3% [3][48]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, founded in 2004 by Shi Yuzhu, has a strong R&D background and has transitioned from a focus on traditional gaming to mobile and international markets [8][14]. - The company has launched several successful games, including "Zhengtu" and "Qiuqiu," which have established a loyal user base [31][34]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of CNY 33.7 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 51.8% [24]. - The gross margin remains high, around 90%, with sales expenses peaking during new product launches [21][28]. Product Development - The "Zhengtu" series has been a long-standing IP, continuously expanding its user base through various platforms [31][32]. - The new game "Supernatural Action Group" has been well-received, leveraging unique gameplay mechanics and strong social features to attract users [38][39]. Market Position - The company holds a market share of approximately 1.5% in the Chinese gaming industry, ranking 29th among mobile game publishers globally [14][18]. - The gaming market in China is projected to reach CNY 3507.9 billion in 2025, with a growth rate of 7.7% [14]. Future Projections - Net profit is expected to reach CNY 24.1 billion, CNY 45.3 billion, and CNY 51.0 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of CNY 1.62, CNY 3.05, and CNY 3.43 [3][48]. - The company anticipates maintaining a high gross margin and improving operational efficiency through AI integration in game development [45][49].