证券研究报告 | 2026年01月11日 2026年01月12日 基金周报 开年首只"日光基"诞生，睿远基金时隔近 6 年再发三年持有期基金 核心观点 金融工程周报 上周市场回顾。上周 A 股市场主要宽基指数全线上涨，科创 50、中证 500、 中证 1000 指数收益靠前，收益分别为 9.80%、7.92%、7.03%，沪深 300、上证综指、创业板指指数收益靠后，收益分别为 2.79%、3.82%、 3.89%。 从成交额来看，上周主要宽基指数成交额均有所上升。行业方面，上周 国防军工、传媒、有色金属收益靠前，收益分别为 14.56%、13.55%、 8.66%，银行、交通运输、石油石化收益靠后，收益分别为-1.88%、 -0.03%、0.17%。 1 月 7 日，华泰柏瑞基金发布公告，旗下沪深 300ETF（510300）的场 内扩位简称，从"沪深 300ETF"正式更新为"沪深 300ETF 华泰柏瑞"，该 变更将于 1 月 9 日生效。 1 月 7 日，睿远基金旗下睿远研选均衡三年持有混合发起式基金发行。 这是时隔近 6 年，睿远基金再度推出三年持有期基金新品。 开放式公募基金表现。上周主动权益、灵 ...

Macro and Strategy - The global commodity market has entered a structural uptrend since the end of 2025, with industrial and precious metals leading the rise, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and a shift in global economic structure [7][8] - The demand for computing power is driving a divergence in commodity prices, with significant increases in copper and oil ratios indicating a new economic growth model centered around "computing power + electricity" [7][8] - The macroeconomic indicators show a recovery in China's economy, with December's manufacturing PMI returning above the expansion threshold, indicating effective policy support [10][11] Industry and Company - The AIDC power equipment sector is expected to benefit from the surge in data center construction, with major tech companies accelerating their investments in AI data centers [26][27] - The solid-state battery industry is experiencing rapid industrialization, with significant improvements in profitability expected for lithium battery companies in 2026 due to ongoing demand for energy storage [26][30] - The global energy storage demand is projected to reach 404 GWh in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 38%, driven by market demand and supportive government policies [28] - Wind power equipment manufacturers are expected to see improved profitability in 2026, with domestic installations projected to grow by 10%-20% [28] - The electric grid equipment sector is anticipated to experience increased demand, particularly with the acceleration of ultra-high voltage approvals and the introduction of new smart meter standards [29]

Group 1: Market Performance - A-shares have successfully broken through 4100 points, while H-shares show relative weakness[1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.79% from January 3 to January 10, while the Hang Seng Index fell by 0.41% during the same period[13] - The AH premium index remains in the range of 115-120 points, indicating a preference for high-quality H-shares over A-shares[12] Group 2: Market Structure and Liquidity - A-shares are driven by "new economy" sectors such as semiconductor equipment and aerospace, benefiting from policy support and improved liquidity[1] - H-shares are still dominated by traditional sectors, leading to concerns over excessive competition among internet companies like Alibaba and Meituan[1] - Increased leverage by individual investors and concentrated allocation by long-term funds in A-shares have supported trading volumes, especially amid the appreciation of the RMB[1] Group 3: Economic Indicators - Fixed asset investment has decreased by 2.60% year-on-year, while retail sales increased by 1.30% year-on-year[5] - The M2 money supply grew by 8.02%, and exports rose by 5.90% year-on-year[5] Group 4: Inventory and Fund Behavior - Recent oil inventory stands at 44,355 million tons, up by 2.78 million tons from the previous week[3] - The latest gold ETF scale is 3,422 million ounces, a decrease of 20,000 ounces from the previous week[28]

2. 福达控股集团有限公司 2025 年面向专业投资者非公开发行可交换公司债券项目获交易所通过，拟发行 规模为 12 亿元，正股为福达股份（603166.SH），主承销商为中德证券，交易所更新日期为 2026 年 1 月 5 日； 风险提示 证券研究报告 | 2026年01月11日 可交换私募债跟踪 私募 EB 每周跟踪（20260105-20260109） 固定收益快评 | 证券分析师： | 王艺熹 | 021-60893204 | wangyixi@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980522100006 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 吴越 | 021-60375496 | wuyue8@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980525080001 | | 证券分析师： | 赵婧 | 0755-22940745 | zhaojing@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513080004 | 我们定期梳理从公开渠道可获得的最新的可交换私募债（私募 EB）项目情况，对私募可交换债项目做基本 要素跟踪，私募发行 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月11日 ETF 周报 上周军工、芯片主题领涨，股票型 ETF 规模突破 39800 亿 核心观点 金融工程周报 ETF 业绩表现 上周（2026 年 01 月 05 日至 2026 年 01 月 09 日，下同）股票型 ETF 周度收益率中位数为 4.31%。宽基 ETF 中，科创板 ETF 涨跌幅中位数 为 10.15%，收益最高。按板块划分，科技 ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 7.28%， 收益最高。按主题进行分类，军工 ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 13.50%，收益 最高。 ETF 规模变动及净申赎 上周股票型 ETF 净赎回 8.03 亿元，总体规模增加 1801.14 亿元。在宽 基 ETF 中，上周中证 500ETF 净申购最多，为 36.48 亿元；按板块来看， 周期 ETF 净申购最多，为 135.24 亿元；按热点主题来看，医药 ETF 净 申购最多，为 8.92 亿元。 ETF 基准指数估值情况 在宽基 ETF 中，创业板类、上证 50ETF 的估值分位数相对较低；按板 块来看，大金融、消费 ETF 的估值分位数相对温和；按照细分主题来看， 酒、新能车 ETF 的估 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月11日 超长债周报 超长债收益率再创新高 20 年国开债：截至 1 月 9 日，20 年国开债和 20 年国债利差为 14BP，处 于历史极低位置。从国内经济数据来看，11 月经济下行压力继续增加。 我们测算的 11 月国内 GDP 同比增速约 4.1%，增速较 10 月回落 0.1%。 通胀方面，12 月 CPI 为 0.8%，PPI 为-1.9%，通缩风险继续缓解。我们 认为，当前债市震荡概率更大。一方面，2024 年四季度以来的经济企稳， 主要来自于中央加杠杆的托底。考虑到 2025 年四季度并无增发国债， 伴随着四季度政府债券融资增速的回落，四季度国内经济依然承压。同 时从中央经济工作会议和政治局会议来看，2026 年党中央更加重视高质 量发展，经济总量"稳中求进"的重要性次序有所调降。另一方面，利 率绝对水平偏低，开年 A 股大涨再创新高，国债期货卖压较大，投资者 情绪总体偏弱。考虑到债市短期震荡为主，预计 20 年国开债品种利差 也将窄幅震荡。 一级发行：上周超长债发行量激增。和上上周相比，超长债总发行量大 幅上升。 成交量：上周超长债交投非常活跃。上周超长债交投 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月11日 转债市场周报 权益走强及季节效应下，转债市场情绪高涨 核心观点 固定收益周报 上周市场焦点（1 月 5 日-1 月 9 日） 股市方面，A 股在元旦假期后快速上涨，市场情绪持续升温，沪指突破 4000 点，全市场日成交额也达到接近 3 万亿元的高水位，科技成长风格 持续领涨，脑机接口、商业航天、可控核聚变等板块表现亮眼，红利板 块表现相对落后。 债市方面，开年央行公开市场持续净回笼，但资金面总体均衡宽松，或 受权益市场持续上涨、商品市场表现也较强势的影响，债市总体震荡偏 弱；周五 10 年期国债利率收于 1.88%，较前周上行 1.98bp。 转债市场方面，上周转债个券多数收涨，中证转债指数全周+4.45%，价 格中位数+3.60%，我们计算的算术平均平价全周+5.79%，全市场转股溢 价率与上周相比-0.55%；个券层面，塞力（AI 医疗）、鼎捷（AI 应用）、 鼎龙（半导体）、声迅（AI 安防）、博瑞（创新药）转债涨幅靠前；天 创（控制权变更）、电化（固态电池）、华锐（数控刀具&已公告强赎）、 环旭（sip 模组&已公告强赎）、茂莱（精密光学）转债跌幅靠前。 观点 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月11日 2026年01月11日 工程机械行业专题 优于大市 中证全指工程机械指数型基金和广发中证工程机械主题 ETF 投资价值分析 工程机械行业作为国民经济的基础性产业，与基建投资、房地产周期紧密相 关，呈现出显著的周期性特征。当前行业正处于"国内更新需求筑底回升、 海外出口高速增长、行业电动化转型加速"的三轮驱动新发展阶段。根据 KHL 数据，2024 年全球工程机械市场规模达 2376 亿美元，行业竞争格局高度集 中，全球 CR3 超过 30%，以卡特彼勒、小松为代表的国际龙头占据主导地位， 国内头部企业凭借技术积累与成本优势，全球市场份额持续提升。 国内：需求企稳回升，电动化开启新成长周期。2025 年 1-11 月挖掘机内销 量同比增长 18.60%，内需已进入筑底复苏阶段。内需增长主要受益于三大驱 动力：一是在"稳增长"政策托底背景下，基建投资有望保持增长，尤其是 雅下水电等特大工程项目开工，其超长的建设周期将持续拉动工程机械内 需；二是存量设备更新周期到来叠加国家更新政策带动工程机械更新需求； 三是应用场景持续拓宽，高标准农田建设、小挖代人等因素推动中小挖掘机 向 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the central bank announced bond purchases of 50 billion yuan in November, with the purchase scale remaining the same as in October. There was a significant net withdrawal in the open - market operations, inflation continued to recover in December, and the A - share market started the year with strong volume and price. The bond market first declined and then rebounded, and the yield of ultra - long bonds reached a new high during the week. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds increased slightly and was very active. Both the term spread and the variety spread of ultra - long bonds widened [1][4][11][38]. - As of January 9, the spread between 30 - year treasury bonds and 10 - year treasury bonds was 42BP, at a historically low level. The spread between 20 - year CDB bonds and 20 - year treasury bonds was 14BP, at a historically extremely low position. Considering the economic situation and market factors, the bond market is more likely to fluctuate. It is expected that the 30 - 10 spread will fluctuate at a high level in the near term, and the variety spread of 20 - year CDB bonds will have a narrow - range fluctuation [2][3][12][13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Review Ultra - long Bond Review - The central bank's bond - buying scale in November was 50 billion yuan, the same as in October. With open - market net withdrawal, inflation recovery, and A - share market strength, the bond market first declined and then rebounded. The ultra - long bond yield reached a new high during the week. Trading activity increased slightly and was very active. Both term and variety spreads widened [1][11]. Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - **30 - year Treasury Bonds**: As of January 9, the 30 - 10 spread was 42BP, at a low historical level. The domestic economic downward pressure increased in November, with the estimated GDP growth rate of about 4.1% year - on - year, a 0.1% decline from October. In December, CPI was 0.8% and PPI was - 1.9%, and the deflation risk continued to ease. The bond market is likely to fluctuate, and the 30 - 10 spread is expected to fluctuate at a high level [2][12]. - **20 - year CDB Bonds**: As of January 9, the 20 - year CDB bond - treasury bond spread was 14BP, at an extremely low historical position. The economic situation is similar to that of 30 - year treasury bonds. The bond market is likely to fluctuate, and the variety spread of 20 - year CDB bonds is expected to have a narrow - range fluctuation [3][13]. Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds is 24.3 trillion yuan. As of December 31, the total amount of ultra - long bonds with a remaining maturity of more than 14 years was 24.4329 trillion yuan, accounting for 15.1% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and treasury bonds are the main varieties. By variety, treasury bonds account for 28.2%, local government bonds 66.4%, etc. By remaining maturity, the 25 - 35 - year variety accounts for the highest proportion at 40.2% [14]. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week (January 4 - 9, 2026), the issuance of ultra - long bonds surged to 191.6 billion yuan. By variety, local government bonds accounted for 185.8 billion yuan. By term, 30 - year bonds accounted for 115.1 billion yuan [20]. This Week's Scheduled Issuance - The announced ultra - long bond issuance plan for this week is 84.2 billion yuan, including 32 billion yuan of ultra - long treasury bonds and 51.7 billion yuan of ultra - long local government bonds [24]. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, the trading of ultra - long bonds was very active, with a turnover of 984.1 billion yuan, accounting for 11.3% of the total bond turnover. The trading activity increased slightly compared with the previous week [28]. Yield - Due to factors such as central bank bond - buying and market conditions, the ultra - long bond yield reached a new high during the week. The yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, 30 - year, and 50 - year treasury bonds changed by 3BP, 4BP, 4BP, and 5BP respectively [38]. Spread Analysis - The term spread of ultra - long bonds widened last week, with an absolute low level. The variety spread also widened, with an absolute low level. The 30 - 10 treasury bond spread was 42BP, and the 20 - year CDB bond - treasury bond spread was 14BP [50][51]. 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2603 closed at 110.87 yuan, with a decline of - 0.48%. The trading volume increased significantly, and the open interest increased slightly [54].

上周股票型 ETF 净赎回 8.03 亿元，总体规模增加 1801.14 亿元。在宽 基 ETF 中，上周中证 500ETF 净申购最多，为 36.48 亿元；按板块来看， 周期 ETF 净申购最多，为 135.24 亿元；按热点主题来看，医药 ETF 净 申购最多，为 8.92 亿元。 ETF 基准指数估值情况 在宽基 ETF 中，创业板类、上证 50ETF 的估值分位数相对较低；按板 块来看，大金融、消费 ETF 的估值分位数相对温和；按照细分主题来看， 酒、新能车 ETF 的估值分位数相对较低。与前周相比，中证 1000、科 创板、消费、医药 ETF 的估值分位数明显提升。 证券研究报告 | 2026年01月11日 ETF 周报 上周军工、芯片主题领涨，股票型 ETF 规模突破 39800 亿 核心观点 金融工程周报 ETF 业绩表现 上周（2026 年 01 月 05 日至 2026 年 01 月 09 日，下同）股票型 ETF 周度收益率中位数为 4.31%。宽基 ETF 中，科创板 ETF 涨跌幅中位数 为 10.15%，收益最高。按板块划分，科技 ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 7.28%， 收益最高。 ...