证券研究报告 | 2025年11月17日 农产品研究跟踪系列报告（182） 优于大市 肉牛价格有望持续上涨，奶牛产能或将去化加速 周度农产品跟踪：牛价有望持续上涨，反内卷支撑中长期生猪价格。 生猪：行业反内卷有望支撑猪价中长期表现。11 月 14 日生猪价格 11.73 元/ 公斤，周环比-1.5%；15kg 仔猪价格约 316.5 元/头，周环比+1%。 白鸡：供给小幅增加，关注旺季消费修复。11 月 14 日，鸡苗价格 3.55 元/ 羽，周环比+3%；毛鸡价格 7.16 元/公斤，周环比+3%。 黄鸡：供给维持底部，有望率先受益内需改善。11 月 14 日浙江快大三黄鸡/ 青 脚 麻 鸡 / 雪 山 草 鸡 斤 价 分 别 为 4.1/5.0/7.8 元 ， 周 环 比 分 别 +0.0%/-2.0%/+0.0%。 鸡蛋：在产父母代存栏维持增长，中期供给压力较大。11 月 14 日，鸡蛋主 产区批发均价价 3.76 元/斤，周环比+2.31%，同比-27%。 肉牛：新一轮牛价上涨开启，看好 2025 年牛周期反转上行。11 月 14 日，牛 肉市场价为 66.63 元/kg，周环比-0.25%，同比+1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the company [5][3][59] Core Insights - The company achieved a net profit of 252 million yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 131%. For the first three quarters of 2025, revenue reached 9.639 billion yuan, up 30.17% year-on-year, with a net profit of 758 million yuan, an increase of 93.70% [1][8] - The company is actively expanding into the low-altitude economy, focusing on three strategic emerging areas: aviation power, new energy, and high-end components, while solidifying its leadership in traditional sectors like general machinery and motorcycle engines [2][59] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 2.946 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.68%, and a net profit of 252 million yuan, up 130.65% year-on-year. The net profit margin improved by 4.4 percentage points year-on-year, reaching 9.1% [1][13] - The company’s gross margin for Q3 2025 was 15.1%, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.3 percentage points [13][20] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 13.411 billion yuan, 16.127 billion yuan, and 18.727 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits expected to be 1.007 billion yuan, 1.187 billion yuan, and 1.369 billion yuan for the same years [3][4][59] Business Segments - The company operates in several key segments: 1. **General Machinery**: The company’s subsidiaries are leaders in the general machinery sector, achieving a revenue of 3.647 billion yuan in H1 2025, a 73.06% increase year-on-year [30] 2. **Motorcycle Engines**: The motorcycle engine segment generated a revenue of 2.330 billion yuan in H1 2025, reflecting a 14.39% year-on-year growth [34] 3. **Aviation Power**: The company has developed a product line focused on small and medium-sized aviation piston engines, with significant advancements in certification processes for its CA500 engine [39][40] 4. **New Energy**: The company is expanding its new energy business, focusing on electric drive systems and energy storage solutions, with a strong emphasis on market penetration and technological innovation [45][49] Strategic Focus - The company aims to transition from traditional manufacturing to a digital, technological, and intelligent power system integration service provider, enhancing its competitive edge in both traditional and emerging markets [57][58]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][3][35] Core Insights - The company reported a net profit of 229 million yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 38%. For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 11.416 billion yuan, up 0.40% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 729 million yuan, up 29.38% year-on-year [1][9] - The company focuses on lightweight automotive components and general aviation aircraft manufacturing, positioning itself as a leader in the low-altitude economy through its eVTOL and other aviation innovations [2][25][28] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 3.922 billion yuan, down 1.93% year-on-year and 0.14% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit for the same quarter was 229 million yuan, up 38.14% year-on-year and 1.35% quarter-on-quarter [1][9] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 15.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year and 3.5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The net margin improved by 1.3 percentage points year-on-year to 6.6% [1][18] Business Segments - The automotive lightweight components segment generated revenue of 9.385 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a slight increase of 0.02% year-on-year. The general aviation aircraft manufacturing segment achieved revenue of 2.031 billion yuan, up 2.20% year-on-year [1][26] - The company is enhancing its customer structure and focusing on the development of aluminum and magnesium alloy lightweight applications, while also expanding its collaboration with core new energy customers [2][25] Future Outlook - The company maintains its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 at 17.843 billion yuan, 19.328 billion yuan, and 21.098 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits projected at 1.001 billion yuan, 1.201 billion yuan, and 1.405 billion yuan [3][35] - The company is actively pursuing opportunities in the low-altitude economy, particularly through the development of eVTOL aircraft and expanding its market presence in urban air mobility solutions [2][28]

Group 1: Power Industry - The unified electricity market is accelerating construction, promoting high-quality development of renewable energy. The basic rules of the unified electricity market have been established, with a focus on market-driven pricing for renewable energy [1][24][29] - In the first three quarters of 2025, the wind power sector's revenue decreased by 2.80% year-on-year, while the solar power sector's revenue dropped by 14.01%, indicating pressure on the performance of the renewable energy sector due to consumption and pricing issues [30][31] - The total installed capacity of wind and solar power reached 582 GW and 1127 GW respectively by September 2025, accounting for 46% of the total installed capacity, with a significant contribution to non-fossil energy consumption [36][40] Group 2: Thermal Power - The transition of thermal power to a regulatory power source is accelerating, with coal prices expected to support long-term contract prices, stabilizing profitability for coal-fired power plants [2] - The capacity price for coal-fired power is anticipated to increase further in 2026, promoting stable profitability for coal power [2][10] Group 3: Hydropower - Hydropower is experiencing improved cost-effectiveness due to abundant cash flow and stable performance, with high dividends becoming more attractive in a declining interest rate environment [3] - The core growth points for hydropower include increased installed capacity, rising electricity prices, and reduced financial costs and depreciation [3] Group 4: Nuclear Power - The nuclear power sector is facing pressure from declining market prices, but there is a rebound in electricity prices in Guangdong, and new nuclear power developments are gaining momentum [3][10] - The approval of new nuclear units is becoming more regular, with 10 units approved in 2025, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [3] Group 5: Natural Gas - Domestic natural gas supply is expected to remain relatively loose, with a decline in apparent consumption by 0.2% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2025 [4] - The global natural gas market is entering a supply expansion phase, which may lead to a downward trend in overseas gas prices [4] Group 6: Green Methanol - The promotion of green electricity consumption and the replacement of shipping fuels are expected to open up growth opportunities for green methanol [9] - As of August 2025, there are 173 signed/registered green methanol projects in China, with a total capacity of 53.46 million tons per year, indicating rapid growth in the sector [9][10] Group 7: Environmental Protection - The water and waste incineration sectors are entering a mature phase, with significant improvements in free cash flow, suggesting investment opportunities in the environmental protection sector [10] - The domestic market for scientific instruments exceeds $9 billion, with substantial potential for domestic substitution, particularly benefiting companies in environmental monitoring instruments [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][3]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant growth, with a net profit of 252 million yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 131%. For the first three quarters of 2025, revenue reached 9.639 billion yuan, up 30.17% year-on-year, and net profit was 758 million yuan, up 93.70% year-on-year [1][8]. - The company is actively expanding into the low-altitude economy, focusing on traditional sectors like general machinery and motorcycle engines while also investing in emerging fields such as aviation power, new energy, and high-end components [2][59]. - The company has a robust order book and continues to see growth in its core businesses, which supports the maintained profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [3][59]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.946 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.68%, while the net profit for the same period was 252 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 130.65% [1][8]. - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 15.1%, up 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, and the net margin was 9.1%, up 4.4 percentage points year-on-year [13][1]. - The company’s operating income projections for 2025-2027 are 13.411 billion yuan, 16.127 billion yuan, and 18.727 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to be 1.007 billion yuan, 1.187 billion yuan, and 1.369 billion yuan [4][59]. Business Segments - The company is a leading player in the domestic small and medium-sized power machinery sector, focusing on general machinery and motorcycle engines, while also developing its aviation power and new energy segments [25][2]. - The aviation power segment has developed a product line centered on small and medium-sized aviation piston engines, with over 20 derivative products launched, targeting the drone and light aircraft markets [2][39]. - The new energy business is structured around electric drive systems, energy storage solutions, and hydrogen energy, aiming to create a balanced growth model between traditional and innovative sectors [45][51]. Market Position - The company maintains a strong market position in traditional sectors while actively pursuing growth in emerging fields, which is expected to provide new revenue streams and enhance overall market competitiveness [59][26]. - The company’s strategic focus on low-altitude economy opportunities is anticipated to yield significant business growth, particularly in the aviation engine sector [40][59].

Key Insights - The report highlights the strong growth potential of Wanyi Technology (688600.SH), a leading domestic helium mass spectrometer manufacturer, which is expanding into analytical and medical instruments to create a second growth curve [11][12][13] - The company has established a solid foundation in industrial detection and online monitoring, with a market share exceeding 40% in helium mass spectrometers, primarily serving sectors such as new energy and automotive components [11][12] - Wanyi Technology's laboratory analysis instruments and medical devices are emerging as new growth engines, with successful product selections in provincial procurement and ongoing development of dialysis machines [12][13] Industry and Company Analysis - The report emphasizes the investment strategy for the metal industry in 2026, focusing on the resonance between supply-demand dynamics and interest rate cuts, anticipating a recovery in profitability and valuation [4] - The electric equipment and new energy sector is highlighted for its lithium battery materials, which are expected to see comprehensive price increases, alongside a sustained demand for domestic energy storage systems [4] - The media industry is advised to focus on trends in prosperity and policy shifts, particularly in AI applications [4] - The food and beverage sector is analyzed through macroeconomic indicators, particularly in relation to the liquor industry [4] - The petrochemical industry is projected to recover in terms of profitability, while the organic silicon sector is expected to enter a price uptrend due to coordinated production cuts [4]

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月16日 超长债周报 经济放缓，超长债横盘震荡 核心观点 固定收益周报 超长债复盘：上周公布的 10 月统计局数据显示经济增速继续放缓，通胀 小幅回升，另外金融数据增速全面回落，总体经济依然存在压力，债市 先扬后抑，超长债微涨。成交方面，上周超长债交投活跃度小幅下降， 交投非常活跃。利差方面，上周超长债期限利差走平，品种利差走阔。 超长债投资展望： 30 年国债：截至 11 月 16 日，30 年国债和 10 年国债利差为 34BP，处于 历史较低水平。从国内经济数据来看，10 月经济下行压力继续增加。我 们测算的 10 月国内 GDP 同比增速约 4.2%，增速较 9 月回落 1.1%。通胀 方面，10 月 CPI 为 0.2%，PPI 为-2.1%，通缩风险依存。我们认为，当 前债市反弹概率更大。一方面，去年四季度以来的经济企稳，主要来自 于中央加杠杆的托底。考虑到今年四季度增发国债的概率较低，预计四 季度政府债券融资增速继续回落，四季度国内经济依然承压。另一方面， 央行恢复国债买卖，年底投资者抢跑开门红，投资者情绪较好。考虑到 30-10 利差仍在偏高水平，预计伴随债市的 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Music (TME.N) is "Outperform the Market" [5][27]. Core Views - Tencent Music's online music business is experiencing steady growth, with a revenue increase of 20.6% year-on-year in Q3 2025, reaching 8.46 billion yuan. The adjusted profit margin also improved by 1.6 percentage points year-on-year [1][9]. - The company is expanding into the broader music sector, which is expected to drive future growth. The focus for 2026 will be on investments in this area, including the acquisition of Himalaya, which is anticipated to enhance ARPPU and contribute to profit growth [3][25]. - The subscription business is showing strong performance, with a 17.2% year-on-year revenue growth in Q3 2025, and the monthly ARPPU increased by 10.2% year-on-year to 11.9 yuan [2][17]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Tencent Music achieved total revenue of 8.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.2%. Online music revenue accounted for 82% of total revenue [1][9]. - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 43.5%, up 0.9 percentage points year-on-year but down 0.9 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to the development of offline events [1][9]. - Adjusted net profit for Q3 2025 was 2.48 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 27.7% [1][9]. Subscription Business - The subscription revenue reached 4.5 billion yuan in Q3 2025, growing 17.2% year-on-year, with a net increase of 1.3 million paying users, resulting in a payment rate of 22.8% [2][17]. - The number of online music paying users was 126 million, an increase of 5.6% year-on-year [2][17]. Other Online Music Revenue - Other online music services, including advertising and digital albums, generated 2.47 billion yuan in revenue, a significant year-on-year increase of 50.5% [2][21]. - The advertising business is expanding its product offerings, and offline events, such as concerts, are contributing to revenue growth [2][21]. Social Entertainment Business - Revenue from social entertainment and other services was 1.49 billion yuan in Q3 2025, showing a decline of 2.7% year-on-year, but the decline is narrowing [2][24]. Financial Forecasts - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 9.6 billion, 10.9 billion, and 12.2 billion yuan, respectively, with a slight downward adjustment of 1-4% [3][25]. - The company is expected to maintain a strong market position with significant growth potential in the broader music sector [3][25].

核心观点 金融工程周报 ETF 业绩表现 证券研究报告 | 2025年11月16日 ETF 周报 上周科技 ETF 跌幅中位数超 4%，酒 ETF 逆势上涨 上周（2025 年 11 月 10 日至 2025 年 11 月 14 日，下同）股票型 ETF 周度 收益率中位数为-1.09%。宽基 ETF 中，上证 50ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 0.02%， 收益最高。按板块划分，消费 ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 2.10%，收益最高。按 主题进行分类，酒 ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 3.67%，收益最高。 ETF 规模变动及净申赎 上周股票型 ETF 净申购 114.02 亿元，总体规模减少 378.87 亿元。在宽基 ETF 中，上周科创板 ETF 净申购最多，为 29.79 亿元；按板块来看，科技 ETF 净申购最多，为 97.70 亿元；按热点主题来看，AIETF 净申购最多，为 49.38 亿元。 ETF 基准指数估值情况 在宽基 ETF 中，创业板类 ETF 的估值分位数相对较低；按板块来看，消费、 大金融 ETF 的估值分位数相对温和；按照细分主题来看，酒、光伏 ETF 的 估值分位数相对较低。 ETF 融资 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月16日 公募 REITs 周报（第 42 期） 小幅回暖，跑赢含权指数 核心观点 固定收益周报 主要结论：本周 REITs 指数小幅上涨，跑赢主要含权指数，保障房、交通、 消费板块涨幅领先。产权类 REITs 和特许经营权类 REITs 平均周涨跌幅为 +0.7%、+1.0%。从主要指数周涨跌幅对比来看，中证 REITs>中证转债>中证 全债>沪深 300。截至 2025 年 11 月 14 日，产权 REITs 股息率比中证红利股 股息率均值低 6BP,经营权类 REITs 内部收益率均值与十年期国债收益率利 差为 253BP。 中证 REITs 指数周涨跌幅为+0.8%，年初至今涨跌幅为 3.6%。截至 2025 年 11 月 14 日，中证 REITs（收盘）指数收盘价为 818.17 点，整周 （2025/11/7-2025/11/14）涨跌幅为+0.8%，表现强于中证转债指数（+0.5%）、 中证全债指数（+0.1%）和沪深 300 指数（-1.1%）。年初至今，各类主要指 数涨跌幅排序为：中证转债（+18.6%）>沪深300（+17.6%）>中证REITs（+3. ...