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医药生物周报(26年第3周):25Q4公募基金医药持仓分析-20260126
Guoxin Securities· 2026-01-26 11:03
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector [5][41]. Core Views - The pharmaceutical sector has shown weaker performance compared to the overall market, with a TTM P/E ratio of 38.51x, which is at the 84.35th percentile of the past five years [1][37]. - The report highlights the importance of the CXO sector, emphasizing the competitive advantages of Chinese companies in the chemical CDMO field, and suggests that the sector's valuation is expected to recover [41]. - The report recommends focusing on innovative drugs and the associated industry chain, with a notable mention of the upcoming JPM conference and the clinical progress of innovative drugs overseas [41][42]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The overall A-share market increased by 1.17%, while the biotechnology sector declined by 0.39%. The medical services sector was the worst performer, dropping by 2.17% [1][32]. - The report notes that the largest sub-sectors by holding percentage are chemical preparations (37.5%) and other biological products (20.8%) [19]. Fund Holdings Analysis - As of Q4 2025, the total net asset value of pharmaceutical funds reached 358.4 billion, a decrease of 9.0% from the previous quarter [11]. - The report indicates that the pharmaceutical holdings of all funds accounted for 7.97%, down by 1.71 percentage points [16]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts for several key companies, all rated "Outperform": - Mindray Medical (300760.SZ): 2024A net profit of 11.67 billion [4] - WuXi AppTec (603259.SH): 2024A net profit of 9.35 billion [4] - Aier Eye Hospital (300015.SZ): 2024A net profit of 3.56 billion [4] - New Industry (300832.SZ): 2024A net profit of 1.83 billion [4] - Huatai Medical (688617.SH): 2024A net profit of 670 million [4] Investment Strategy - The report recommends a portfolio of stocks including Mindray Medical, WuXi AppTec, Aier Eye Hospital, and others, focusing on companies with strong growth potential in the innovative drug sector [42][43].
医药生物周报(26年第3周):5Q4公募基金医药持仓分析-20260126
Guoxin Securities· 2026-01-26 09:52
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector [5] Core Views - The pharmaceutical sector underperformed the overall market, with a 0.39% decline in the biopharmaceutical sector compared to a 1.17% increase in the total A-share market [32] - The TTM price-to-earnings ratio for the pharmaceutical sector is 38.51x, which is at the 84.35th percentile of the historical valuation over the past five years [32][37] - The report highlights a shift in fund holdings, with a decrease in the proportion of pharmaceutical holdings in both pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical funds [11][16] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The overall A-share market increased by 1.17%, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index decreased by 0.62% [32] - The biopharmaceutical sector's performance was weaker than the overall market, with specific declines in chemical pharmaceuticals (-1.11%) and medical services (-2.17%) [32] Fund Holdings Analysis - As of Q4 2025, the net asset value of pharmaceutical funds reached 358.4 billion, a decrease of 9.0% from the previous quarter [11] - The proportion of pharmaceutical holdings in all funds was 7.97%, down 1.71 percentage points [16] - The largest sub-sectors by holdings were chemical preparations (37.5%) and other biological products (20.8%) [19] Company Earnings Forecasts and Ratings - Key companies such as Mindray Medical (237 billion market cap, "Outperform" rating) and WuXi AppTec (293.6 billion market cap, "Outperform" rating) are highlighted for their strong earnings forecasts [4] - The report lists several companies with projected earnings growth, including Aier Eye Hospital and New Industry, both rated "Outperform" [4] Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on innovative drugs and the CXO sector, emphasizing the competitive advantages of Chinese companies in the chemical CDMO space [41] - A portfolio of recommended stocks includes Mindray Medical, WuXi AppTec, and Aier Eye Hospital, among others [42][43]
美元债双周报(26年第4周):地缘风险与财政隐忧下美债利率升至半年新高-20260126
Guoxin Securities· 2026-01-26 09:22
证券研究报告 | 2026年01月26日 美元债双周报(26 年第 4 周) 弱于大市 地缘风险与财政隐忧下美债利率升至半年新高 美国 11 月 PCE 物价指数符合预期,通胀温和且支出稳健。1 月 22 日美国经 济分析局发布的 11 月 PCE 报告显示,PCE 物价指数同比上涨 2.8%,环 比上涨 0.2%,均与市场预期一致,反映通胀温和运行。剔除食品和能源 后的核心 PCE 同比亦上涨 2.8%,环比增长 0.2%,同样符合预期。报告 同时指出,美国个人支出在 11 月保持稳健增长,显示消费者支出依然 是经济增长的重要支撑,不过储蓄率进一步下滑,这或对中长期消费动 力构成一定压力。核心 PCE 维持在较高水平但未显著超预期,表明通胀 压力虽有所缓解但仍高于美联储 2%的长期目标。 2025 年第三季度美国实际 GDP 终值年化季环比增速上修至 4.4%,略超预期, 达两年最快。增长由出口增强、库存变化负面影响减小及消费韧性驱动, 表明经济扩张动力强。同期核心 PCE 终值维持在 2.9%,高于美联储 2% 目标,通胀具粘性。强劲增长与稳健就业使市场预计美联储 1 月将按兵 不动。CME 美联储观察工 ...
德力佳(603092):公司产能持续扩张,夯实成长前景
Guoxin Securities· 2026-01-26 08:50
证券研究报告 | 2026年01月26日 德力佳(603092.SH) 公司产能持续扩张,夯实成长前景 公司研究·公司快评 电力设备·风电设备 投资评级:优于大市(维持) 证券分析师: 王蔚祺 010-88005313 wangweiqi2@guosen.com.cn 执证编码:S0980520080003 证券分析师: 王晓声 010-88005231 wangxiaosheng@guosen.com.cn 执证编码:S0980523050002 联系人: 王喆萱 wangzhexuan@guosen.com.cn 事项: 2026 年 1 月 25 日,公司与无锡宛山湖产业发展有限公司、羊尖镇人民政府签署《德力佳 10 兆瓦以上风电 用变速箱研发制造项目投资合作协议》,推进公司风电齿轮箱产能扩充。该项目主要面向陆上及海上大功 率风电机型(10 兆瓦以上)的齿轮箱配套需求,总投资 50 亿元(初期预投 20 亿),资金来源为公司自有 资金和银行贷款,预计 2026 年 7 月开工。 国信电新观点:公司顺应风电行业"大型化、海上化"发展趋势,新建 10MW 以上风电齿轮箱项目以匹配 陆上及海上风电大功率机型齿 ...
酒店行业深度专题:新周期开启,头部玩家重塑成长价值
Guoxin Securities· 2026-01-26 08:36
证券研究报告 | 2026年01月26日 酒店行业深度专题 优于大市 新周期开启,头部玩家重塑成长价值 国内酒店龙头市值从百亿级发展至今呈现非线性增长特征,周期拐点预期与 资本整合是跃升的核心驱动力,长期看规模与效益。复盘酒店估值遵循"周 期为锚、成长性为助推器、中线看规模与效益"三维体系:宏观供需错配决 定估值拐点(如2016-2018 年周期上行阶段估值提升至40-50x,而2024-2025 年供给回补周期下行阶段估值回落至 15-20x),中观结构升级与模式升级放 大波动(如华住在 2016-2018 年中端升级期的估值放大),公司自身经营周 期提供个股阿尔法展现出逆势估值提升(如亚朵在 2024 年行业下行期凭借 零售业务超预期推动估值从 15x 修复至 23x);长期视角对比海外成熟龙头 各项指标,龙头规模成长、单房经营效率、股东回报构成稳态估值差异关键。 当前周期底部行业分化加大,供需再平衡阶段龙头 RevPAR 有望触底回升。 (一)供给侧:行业稳定现金流特征使得总供给受其他物业切入增量边际扰 动,但开店与投资回报需求平衡下行业有望进入新常态增长阶段,以龙头为 例储备店较高位呈现回落;此前国内 ...
美元债双周报(26 年第4 周):地缘风险与财政隐忧下美债利率升至半年新高-20260126
Guoxin Securities· 2026-01-26 06:25
证券研究报告 | 2026年01月26日 美元债双周报(26 年第 4 周) 弱于大市 地缘风险与财政隐忧下美债利率升至半年新高 美国 11 月 PCE 物价指数符合预期,通胀温和且支出稳健。1 月 22 日美国经 济分析局发布的 11 月 PCE 报告显示,PCE 物价指数同比上涨 2.8%,环 比上涨 0.2%,均与市场预期一致,反映通胀温和运行。剔除食品和能源 后的核心 PCE 同比亦上涨 2.8%,环比增长 0.2%,同样符合预期。报告 同时指出,美国个人支出在 11 月保持稳健增长,显示消费者支出依然 是经济增长的重要支撑,不过储蓄率进一步下滑,这或对中长期消费动 力构成一定压力。核心 PCE 维持在较高水平但未显著超预期,表明通胀 压力虽有所缓解但仍高于美联储 2%的长期目标。 风险提示:美国经济和货币、财政、贸易政策的不确定性。 核心观点 行业研究·海外市场专题 美股 弱于大市·维持 | 证券分析师:王学恒 | 证券分析师:徐祯霆 | | --- | --- | | 010-88005382 | 010-88005494 | | wangxueh@guosen.com.cn | xuzhenti ...
美元债双周报(26年第4周):缘风险与财政隐忧下美债利率升至半年新高-20260126
Guoxin Securities· 2026-01-26 06:08
Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the US dollar bond market is "Underperform" [1][6] Core Viewpoints - The US economy shows signs of growth, with the Q3 2025 real GDP annualized quarterly growth rate revised up to 4.4%, driven by export growth, reduced negative impacts of inventory changes, and consumer resilience. However, inflation remains sticky, with the core PCE at 2.9%, above the Fed's 2% target. The market expects the Fed to keep rates unchanged in January, with the first rate cut likely in June - July [2] - Geopolitical risks and fiscal concerns have led to an increase in US Treasury yields. The 10 - year yield has exceeded the high since August last year, reaching above 4.3%. The long - term concern lies in the US fiscal situation, with a budget deficit to GDP ratio of about 6% [4] - European pension institutions' consideration of selling US Treasuries has caused market fluctuations, but the actual possibility of large - scale selling is low. The market is currently in a multi - factor game, and it is recommended to adopt a "short - duration core + steepening satellite" configuration [3][4] Summary by Directory US Macroeconomic and Liquidity - The November PCE price index in the US was in line with expectations, with the PCE price index rising 2.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. Core PCE also rose 2.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. Personal spending remained robust in November, but the savings rate declined, which may pressure long - term consumption [1] - The Q3 2025 real GDP annualized quarterly growth rate was revised up to 4.4%, the fastest in two years. The core PCE remained at 2.9%, above the Fed's target. The market expects the Fed to keep rates unchanged in January, with a nearly 97% probability, and the first rate cut likely in June - July [2] Exchange Rate - No specific content in the provided text directly elaborates on exchange rate analysis, but it is likely related to the impact of US Treasury yield changes on the US dollar index and other non - US currencies [53] Chinese - Issued US Dollar Bonds - The text shows various charts related to the returns, yields, and spreads of Chinese - issued US dollar bonds since 2023, including breakdowns by level and industry [64] Rating Actions - In the past two weeks, the three major international rating agencies took 11 rating actions on Chinese - issued US dollar bond issuers, including 2 rating revocations, 2 upgrades, 2 downgrades, and 5 initial ratings [76]
基金周报:公募基金业绩比较基准指引发布,易方达财富上线近万只基金-20260126
Guoxin Securities· 2026-01-26 05:21
基金周报 公募基金业绩比较基准指引发布,易方达财富上线近万只基金 证券研究报告 | 2026年01月26日 核心观点 金融工程周报 上周市场回顾。上周 A 股市场主要宽基指数走势出现分化,中证 500、 中证 1000、科创 50 指数收益靠前,收益分别为 4.34%、2.89%、2.62%, 沪深 300、创业板指、上证综指指数收益靠后,收益分别为-0.62%、 -0.34%、0.84%。 从成交额来看,上周主要宽基指数成交额均有所下降。行业方面,上周 建材、石油石化、钢铁收益靠前,收益分别为 9.18%、7.76%、6.98%, 银行、通信、食品饮料收益靠后,收益分别为-2.69%、-1.68%、-1.57%。 截至上周五,央行逆回购净投放资金 2295 亿元,逆回购到期 9515 亿元, 净公开市场投放 11810 亿元。除 1 年期外,不同期限的国债利率均有所 下行,利差缩窄 5.21BP。 上周共上报 58 只基金,较上上周申报数量有所增加。申报的产品包括 5 只 FOF、17 只 ETF,国泰海通中证红利低波动 ETF、国投瑞银上证科 创板 200ETF、华宝中证电网设备主题 ETF 等。 1 月 ...
人工智能周报(26年第4周):MiniMax Agent 2.0正式发布,百度文心5.0上线-20260126
Guoxin Securities· 2026-01-26 03:18
证券研究报告 | 2026年01月25日 2026年01月26日 人工智能周报(26 年第 4 周) 优于大市 MiniMax Agent 2.0 正式发布,百度文心 5.0 上线 人工智能动态:1)公司动态:①字节扣子 2.0 发布;②安克与飞书联合 发布"AI 录音豆";③MiniMax Agent 2.0 正式推出;④美国 AI 创企 Humans&获 4.8 亿美元种子轮融资;⑤特斯拉人形机器人 Optimus 计划 于 2027 年公售;⑥谷歌 Gemini 上线免费 SAT 模拟考功能;⑦xAI Grok Imagine 推出 10 秒视频生成功能。 2)底层技术:①智谱发布并开源混合思考模型 GLM-4.7-Flash;② DeepSeek 新模型"MODEL1"曝光;③阿里通义千问开源 Qwen3-TTS 系列 语音生成模型;④百度推出文心 5.0;⑤谷歌 DeepMind 发布 D4RT 四维 视觉 AI 模型。 投资建议:伴随大模型在多模态、长文本、推理能力等方面的成熟,26 年有望迎来更多成熟 Agent 产品的涌现,推理侧需求的增加将带动上游 云计算厂商的收入持续增长。另一方面,国内互 ...
ETF 周报:上周沪深 300ETF 净赎回超 2000 亿元-20260126
Guoxin Securities· 2026-01-26 03:07
证券研究报告 | 2026年01月25日 2026年01月26日 ETF 周报 上周沪深 300ETF 净赎回超 2000 亿元 ETF 业绩表现 上周(2026 年 01 月 19 日至 2026 年 01 月 23 日,下同)股票型 ETF 周度收益率中位数为 0.95%。宽基 ETF 中,中证 500ETF 涨跌幅中位 数为 4.34%,收益最高。按板块划分,周期 ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 3.52%, 收益最高。按主题进行分类,光伏 ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 6.87%,收益最 高。 ETF 规模变动及净申赎 上周股票型 ETF 净赎回 3380.98 亿元,总体规模减少 3098.29 亿元。在宽 基 ETF 中,上周中证 500ETF 净赎回最少,为 84.27 亿元;按板块来看, 周期 ETF 净申购最多,为 293.38 亿元;按热点主题来看,芯片 ETF 净申 购最多,为 127.74 亿元。 ETF 基准指数估值情况 在宽基 ETF 中,创业板类、上证 50ETF 的估值分位数相对较低;按板块来 看,大金融、消费 ETF 的估值分位数相对温和;按照细分主题来看,酒、 新能车 ETF 的估值分位 ...