证券研究报告 | 2026年01月13日 2026年01月14日 电子行业周报 优于大市 半导体景气超预期，多环节陆续提价，AI 眼镜放量在即 半导体景气超预期，多环节陆续提价，AI 眼镜放量在即。过去一周上证上涨 3.82%，电子上涨 7.74%，子行业中电子化学品上涨 15.95%。同期恒生科技、 费城半导体、台湾资讯科技下跌 0.86%、上涨 3.68%、上涨 4.43%。受 AI 增 量需求拉动，电子上游涨价品类不断增加，存储和高端 PCB 产业链仍呈现较 严重的供不应求，近期晶圆代工、高端封测、模拟芯片、被动元件、LCD 等 环节也呈现不同幅度的涨价预期，终端层面已陆续通过涨价向 C 端传导，行 业盈利水平温和修复。我们认为，当下时点处于业绩空窗期，部分受益于海 外 AI 算力高增长的标的临近 1 月份业绩预告催化；同时，26 年 CES 展已开 幕，AI 手机、AI 眼镜、折叠屏等端侧创新预期有望强化春季躁动行情，我 们维持 26 年电子行业"迈入收获之年"的乐观判断，关注自主可控（代工+ 设备）、海外算力+存力链，推荐：翱捷科技、德明利、江波龙、蓝特光学、 生益科技、蓝思科技、中芯国际、长电科技 ...

- The report discusses the market performance on January 13, 2026, highlighting that most indices were in a declining state, with the SSE 50 Index performing relatively better, declining by 0.34%[6] - The report also notes that the SSE Composite Index performed better among sector indices, declining by 0.64%[6] - In terms of style indices, the CSI 300 Value Index performed better, increasing by 0.42%[6] - The report provides detailed performance data for various industry indices, with the petroleum and petrochemical, pharmaceutical, non-ferrous metals, media, and banking industries performing relatively well, while the defense and military, comprehensive finance, communication, electronics, and machinery industries performed poorly[7] - The report includes data on market sentiment, noting that 75 stocks hit the daily limit up and 58 stocks hit the daily limit down at the close of trading on January 13, 2026[2] - The report provides information on the financing and securities lending balance as of January 12, 2026, with a total balance of 2.6741 trillion yuan, including a financing balance of 2.6560 trillion yuan and a securities lending balance of 181 billion yuan[2] - The report discusses the premium and discount rates of ETFs, noting that the Sci-Tech Innovation Board AI ETF Morgan had the highest premium of 9.95% on January 12, 2026, while the Financial Technology ETF E Fund had the highest discount of 1.19%[3] - The report includes data on block trading, noting that the average daily transaction amount of block trades in the past six months was 2.2 billion yuan, with a transaction amount of 2.5 billion yuan on January 12, 2026, and an average discount rate of 6.77% over the past six months, with a discount rate of 9.98% on January 12, 2026[3] - The report provides data on the annualized discount rates of the main contracts of stock index futures for the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices, noting that the annualized discount rate for the main contract of the SSE 50 index futures was 0.89% on January 13, 2026, while the annualized discount rates for the main contracts of the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index futures were 0.30%, 0.88%, and 3.10%, respectively[3][29] - The report includes data on institutional attention and the Dragon and Tiger List, noting that the stocks with the most institutional research in the past week were Yiwang Yichuang, Qianfang Technology, Hengyi Petrochemical, Anji Technology, Yisheng Shares, Hehe Information, Xingfa Group, and Lante Optics, with Yiwang Yichuang being researched by 94 institutions[4][31] - The report provides data on the net inflow and outflow of institutional seats on the Dragon and Tiger List, noting that the top ten stocks with net inflows were China Satellite, Hengwei Technology, Chinese Online, Guangyun Technology, Yidian Tianxia, Shenguang Group, Jiayuan Technology, Xinghuan Technology-U, Junda Shares, and Tianlong Group, while the top ten stocks with net outflows were Aerospace Electronics, Guobo Electronics, Tongyu Communications, Zhongchao Holdings, Aerospace Development, Zhongke Xingtu, Haige Communications, Galaxy Electronics, Zhongneng Electric, and Juli Rigging[4][37] - The report also provides data on the net inflow and outflow of Northbound funds on the Dragon and Tiger List, noting that the top ten stocks with net inflows were Chinese Online, Tongyu Communications, Tianlong Group, Haige Communications, China Satellite, Hengwei Technology, Xinghuan Technology-U, Luxin Venture Capital, Dike Shares, and Zhongchao Holdings, while the top ten stocks with net outflows were Leike Defense, Shanghai Construction, Galaxy Electronics, Runchang Bio, Zhongke Xingtu, Western Materials, Northern Navigation, Aerospace Information, Saili Medical, and Visual China[4][38]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [2][3]. Core Insights - AI-assisted shopping is experiencing breakthroughs, with Generative Engine Optimization (GEO) expected to reshape customer acquisition models. The shift from traditional search to generative AI dialogue is becoming a core method for users to obtain information, creating new growth opportunities in the e-commerce sector [4][30]. - The GEO model enhances brand marketing strategies by improving customer acquisition logic and flow operation models, particularly benefiting e-commerce service providers and cross-border e-commerce companies with strong technical integration capabilities [4][30]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights that the application of AI technology is becoming a central focus across various industries, with e-commerce being a significant application area due to its complex scenarios and large data volumes. The transition from traditional search to generative AI dialogue is expected to drive profound changes in brand marketing [4][30]. Market Trends - The GEO market in China is rapidly growing, with a projected year-on-year increase of 215% by Q2 2025. Over 78% of enterprise decision-makers prioritize AI search optimization in their digital transformation strategies. Gartner predicts a 25% decline in traffic from traditional search engines by 2026, as AI chatbots and other virtual AI optimization methods capture more market share [7][30]. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on platform ecosystems and leading AI tool operators, such as 壹网壹创, 青木科技, and 若羽臣, which can effectively adapt to the GEO model and enhance answer weight logic [5][30]. - It also suggests investing in cross-border e-commerce companies like 焦点科技, 小商品城, and 安克创新, which are expected to benefit from AI empowerment and the GEO model to optimize their profit structures [5][30]. Company Insights - 壹网壹创 is transitioning towards an AI e-commerce service model, leveraging its partnership with Alibaba to enhance its AI applications and drive revenue growth [15][30]. - 青木科技 has integrated AI technology into its operations, achieving over 30% year-on-year growth in AI business revenue, and is focusing on developing GEO capabilities [16][30]. - 若羽臣 is enhancing its marketing tools with AI, improving user engagement and conversion rates through innovative online experiences [17][30]. Cross-Border E-commerce - The GEO model is also transforming the overseas e-commerce sector, where companies are leveraging AI to optimize operations and reduce costs. Successful implementation of GEO strategies can enhance brand exposure and customer acquisition efficiency [18][30].

投资建议：伴随大模型在多模态、长文本、推理能力等方面的成熟，26 年有 望迎来更多成熟 Agent 产品的涌现，推理侧需求的增加将带动上游云计算厂 商的收入持续增长。另一方面，国内互联网巨头在 AI Capex 方面的投入落 后海外约一年，伴随后续大模型能力逐步提升和建设供给的释放，AI 对于巨 头主业的赋能将持续显现。此外，三季度预计为互联网巨头外卖大战的投入 峰值，四季度预计将环比看到阿里、美团和京东三家外卖亏损有所收窄。建 议聚焦 AI 主线选股，推荐阿里巴巴、腾讯控股。 风险提示：政策落地不及预期风险，技术商业化瓶颈风险，供应链波动 风险等。 重点公司盈利预测及投资评级 证券研究报告 | 2026年01月12日 2026年01月13日 人工智能周报（26 年第 2 周） 优于大市 Meta 收购 Agent 公司 Manus，智谱、MiniMax 上市 人工智能动态：1）公司动态：①千问 App 公测 30 天月活破 4000 万；②Meta 宣布收购 AI 智能体公司 Manus，创始人肖弘将出任 Meta 副总裁；③字节跳 动旗下海外 AI 助手 Dola 日活破千万；④马斯克旗下 xAI 收购第 ...

人工智能动态：1）公司动态：①千问 App 公测 30 天月活破 4000 万；②Meta 宣布收购 AI 智能体公司 Manus，创始人肖弘将出任 Meta 副总裁；③字节跳 动旗下海外 AI 助手 Dola 日活破千万；④马斯克旗下 xAI 收购第三栋建筑， 扩大人工智能算力规模；⑤亚马逊开放部分用户网页端对话 Alexa+，剑指 ChatGPT；⑥高德世界模型登顶 WorldScore，新产品或与扫街榜有关；⑦三 星：今年计划将搭载谷歌 AI 的移动设备产量翻倍至 8 亿台。 2）底层技术：①阿里升级新一代语音模型 Qwen3-TTS，可参考文字、声音生 成拟人音色；②字节推出形式化数学推理专用模型 Seed Prover 1.5；③腾 讯混元团队开源 HY-Motion1.0。④英伟达拟以 20-30 亿美元洽谈收购 AI21 Labs；⑤ChatGPT Health 推出，可以连接 Apple 健康、Function 和 MyFitnessPal 等应用，并给出不同的规划和建议。 3）行业政策：①12 月 31 日，四川省人民政府办公厅印发《四川省国家数字 经济创新发展试验区建设方案》。②发改委：国 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月12日 2026年01月13日 芯碁微装（688630.SH） 优于大市 全球领先的 PCB 直接成像设备及半导体直写光刻设备供应商 PCB：AI 算力 PCB 供不应求，PCB 厂商不断扩产，持续深化头部厂商合作。 AI 算力 PCB 需求爆发，20 层以上的高端 PCB 供不应求，带动胜宏科技、鹏 鼎控股等下游客户大幅扩产高端硬板产能，同时为了满足海外客户供应链要 求，各大 PCB 厂商在泰国积极投建厂房，上游 PCB 设备需求旺盛。2024 年， 公司销售 PCB 设备超 370 台，其中高阶产品占比达 60%以上。目前，公司在 高端 PCB 设备领域取得显著进展，产品性能已比肩国际厂商，市场占有率不 断提升，与鹏鼎控股、VTEC、CMK、胜宏科技等头部客户合作稳定。 泛半导体领域：泛半导体多领域协同突破，国产替代加速共振。公司泛半导 体直写光刻机主要覆盖载板、先进封装、掩模版制板、引线框架、功率半导 体、新型显示等领域。公司持续引领 IC 载板国产替代进程，凭借 3-4μm 高 解析度制程技术，产品技术指标已达国际一流水平。先进封装领域，直写光 刻技术在 AI 芯片内 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月12日 2026年01月13日 芯碁微装（688630.SH） 优于大市 全球领先的 PCB 直接成像设备及半导体直写光刻设备供应商 公司为国内直写光刻设备领军企业，产品覆盖 PCB 和泛半导体领域。合肥芯 碁微装电子装备股份有限公司成立于 2015 年，专业从事以微纳直写光刻为 技术核心的直接成像设备及直写光刻设备的研发和生产，为国家级专精新 "小巨人"企业。截至 2025 年 6 月 30 日，已为超过 600 家客户提供近 100 种类型的设备，覆盖全球十大 PCB 制造商及七成全球百强 PCB 制造商。2024 年公司营收 9.53 亿元，其中 PCB 系列营收7.82 亿元(YoY +32.5%)，占比82%， 泛半导体系列营收 1.10 亿元(YoY +9.2%)，占比 12%。 PCB：AI 算力 PCB 供不应求，PCB 厂商不断扩产，持续深化头部厂商合作。 AI 算力 PCB 需求爆发，20 层以上的高端 PCB 供不应求，带动胜宏科技、鹏 鼎控股等下游客户大幅扩产高端硬板产能，同时为了满足海外客户供应链要 求，各大 PCB 厂商在泰国积极投建厂房，上游 P ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alibaba-W (09988.HK) is "Outperform" [1][6][4] Core Views - The report anticipates a revenue growth of 2% year-on-year for 3QFY26, with an expected revenue of 285.8 billion yuan. The adjusted EBITA margin is projected to be 11.7%, reflecting a decline of 7.8 percentage points year-on-year [3][5] - The international digital commerce group and cloud intelligence revenue are expected to grow by 8% and 35% year-on-year, respectively, indicating continued acceleration in cloud revenue growth [3][10] - The report highlights the ongoing investment in AI and model training, which is expected to impact profitability in the short term but may enhance competitive positioning in the long run [11][22] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 3QFY26, Alibaba is projected to achieve a revenue of 285.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2%. The adjusted EBITA is expected to be 33.5 billion yuan, down 39% year-on-year [3][5] - The adjusted EBITA margin is forecasted at 11.7%, a decrease of 7.8 percentage points compared to the previous year [5][3] Cloud Business - The cloud segment is expected to see a revenue increase of 35% year-on-year in FY26Q3, with a stable EBITA margin. The Qwen model is anticipated to enhance the company's market share in overseas markets [10][11] E-commerce Performance - The e-commerce group's GMV is expected to grow by 3% year-on-year in FY26Q3, influenced by a weak retail environment. The report notes that the monetization rate is expected to align closely with GMV growth [19][21] - Instant retail is projected to incur losses of approximately 20-25 billion yuan, with a focus on maintaining market share through increased investment [21][22] Financial Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for FY2026-FY2028 have been slightly adjusted to 1,030.7 billion, 1,149.4 billion, and 1,275.1 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 1.5%, 2.8%, and 1.4%, respectively, due to a soft consumer environment [4][23] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for FY2026-FY2028 are revised to 101.6 billion, 135.4 billion, and 165.5 billion yuan, with adjustments of -9.1%, -6.6%, and -3.7% respectively [4][23]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the public utility and environmental sectors [1][5][8]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of the "environment + resource" investment logic, highlighting that many environmental companies possess resource attributes, which can lead to stable profit models through the extraction of valuable materials from waste [2][16][18]. - The report notes a decline in the utilization rates of photovoltaic and wind power generation in 2025, with photovoltaic utilization at 94.8% and wind power at 94.3% for the year-to-date [1][14]. Summary by Sections Investment Strategy - Public Utilities: Recommendations include major thermal power companies like Huadian International and Shanghai Electric, as well as leading renewable energy firms such as Longyuan Power and Three Gorges Energy [3][22]. - Environmental Sector: Focus on mature sectors like water and waste incineration, with recommendations for companies like China Everbright Environment and Shanghai Industrial Holdings [3][23]. Market Performance - The report indicates that the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.79%, with the public utility index increasing by 2.54% and the environmental index by 3.88% [1][24]. - In the power sector, thermal power saw a 2.40% increase, while renewable energy generation rose by 3.74% [1][25]. Key Data Overview - In November, the national electricity generation reached 779.2 billion kWh, with a year-on-year growth of 2.7% [45]. - The report highlights that the total electricity consumption for the year-to-date is 9,460.2 billion kWh, reflecting a 5.2% increase year-on-year [58]. Company Profit Forecasts and Ratings - Specific companies are highlighted with their respective ratings and financial metrics, such as Huadian International with a PE ratio of 10.2 for 2024 and 8.1 for 2025 [8]. - Other recommended companies include Longyuan Power, Three Gorges Energy, and China Nuclear Power, all rated as "Outperform" [8][22]. Special Research - The report discusses the shift from viewing environmental companies as cost centers to recognizing their potential for value creation through resource recovery and recycling [2][16]. - It also outlines the significant price increases in metals due to geopolitical tensions and supply chain concerns, which could benefit resource-oriented environmental companies [2][21].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company [6]. Core Insights - The company, Laopu Gold, is experiencing accelerated growth in its high-end gold jewelry retail business, with a projected revenue of 12.354 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 251%, and a net profit of 2.268 billion yuan, up 286% [2][4]. - The brand's positioning as a high-end product with a focus on traditional craftsmanship is driving its growth, supported by a fully direct sales model and a significant increase in both offline and online sales channels [2][3]. - The demand for gold jewelry is expected to continue growing due to the rising fashion attributes of gold products and the increasing purchasing power of younger consumers [3][57]. Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 4.84 billion yuan in 2025, with corresponding PE ratios of 22.4, 16.6, and 13.4 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][5]. - Revenue is expected to grow significantly, with estimates of 28.05 billion yuan in 2025, 37.25 billion yuan in 2026, and 45.20 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 156% from 2022 to 2024 [5][19]. Market Positioning - Laopu Gold operates 41 stores across 16 cities, with a strong presence in high-end shopping centers, and has achieved a significant increase in average store revenue, which reached 207 million yuan in 2024, up 120.28% year-on-year [2][19]. - The company has successfully integrated product design, processing, and retail into a cohesive management system, allowing it to maintain a competitive edge in a market characterized by product homogeneity [3][67]. Consumer Trends - The report highlights a shift in consumer preferences towards gold jewelry that combines fashion and value retention, particularly among younger demographics, who are increasingly contributing to gold jewelry sales [3][55]. - The high-end consumer market remains resilient, with luxury brands showing strong performance, which bodes well for Laopu Gold's positioning in the market [57][64].