证券研究报告 | 2026年01月11日 转债市场周报 权益走强及季节效应下，转债市场情绪高涨 核心观点 固定收益周报 上周市场焦点（1 月 5 日-1 月 9 日） 股市方面，A 股在元旦假期后快速上涨，市场情绪持续升温，沪指突破 4000 点，全市场日成交额也达到接近 3 万亿元的高水位，科技成长风格 持续领涨，脑机接口、商业航天、可控核聚变等板块表现亮眼，红利板 块表现相对落后。 债市方面，开年央行公开市场持续净回笼，但资金面总体均衡宽松，或 受权益市场持续上涨、商品市场表现也较强势的影响，债市总体震荡偏 弱；周五 10 年期国债利率收于 1.88%，较前周上行 1.98bp。 转债市场方面，上周转债个券多数收涨，中证转债指数全周+4.45%，价 格中位数+3.60%，我们计算的算术平均平价全周+5.79%，全市场转股溢 价率与上周相比-0.55%；个券层面，塞力（AI 医疗）、鼎捷（AI 应用）、 鼎龙（半导体）、声迅（AI 安防）、博瑞（创新药）转债涨幅靠前；天 创（控制权变更）、电化（固态电池）、华锐（数控刀具&已公告强赎）、 环旭（sip 模组&已公告强赎）、茂莱（精密光学）转债跌幅靠前。 观点 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月11日 2026年01月11日 工程机械行业专题 优于大市 中证全指工程机械指数型基金和广发中证工程机械主题 ETF 投资价值分析 工程机械行业作为国民经济的基础性产业，与基建投资、房地产周期紧密相 关，呈现出显著的周期性特征。当前行业正处于"国内更新需求筑底回升、 海外出口高速增长、行业电动化转型加速"的三轮驱动新发展阶段。根据 KHL 数据，2024 年全球工程机械市场规模达 2376 亿美元，行业竞争格局高度集 中，全球 CR3 超过 30%，以卡特彼勒、小松为代表的国际龙头占据主导地位， 国内头部企业凭借技术积累与成本优势，全球市场份额持续提升。 国内：需求企稳回升，电动化开启新成长周期。2025 年 1-11 月挖掘机内销 量同比增长 18.60%，内需已进入筑底复苏阶段。内需增长主要受益于三大驱 动力：一是在"稳增长"政策托底背景下，基建投资有望保持增长，尤其是 雅下水电等特大工程项目开工，其超长的建设周期将持续拉动工程机械内 需；二是存量设备更新周期到来叠加国家更新政策带动工程机械更新需求； 三是应用场景持续拓宽，高标准农田建设、小挖代人等因素推动中小挖掘机 向 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the central bank announced bond purchases of 50 billion yuan in November, with the purchase scale remaining the same as in October. There was a significant net withdrawal in the open - market operations, inflation continued to recover in December, and the A - share market started the year with strong volume and price. The bond market first declined and then rebounded, and the yield of ultra - long bonds reached a new high during the week. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds increased slightly and was very active. Both the term spread and the variety spread of ultra - long bonds widened [1][4][11][38]. - As of January 9, the spread between 30 - year treasury bonds and 10 - year treasury bonds was 42BP, at a historically low level. The spread between 20 - year CDB bonds and 20 - year treasury bonds was 14BP, at a historically extremely low position. Considering the economic situation and market factors, the bond market is more likely to fluctuate. It is expected that the 30 - 10 spread will fluctuate at a high level in the near term, and the variety spread of 20 - year CDB bonds will have a narrow - range fluctuation [2][3][12][13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Review Ultra - long Bond Review - The central bank's bond - buying scale in November was 50 billion yuan, the same as in October. With open - market net withdrawal, inflation recovery, and A - share market strength, the bond market first declined and then rebounded. The ultra - long bond yield reached a new high during the week. Trading activity increased slightly and was very active. Both term and variety spreads widened [1][11]. Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - **30 - year Treasury Bonds**: As of January 9, the 30 - 10 spread was 42BP, at a low historical level. The domestic economic downward pressure increased in November, with the estimated GDP growth rate of about 4.1% year - on - year, a 0.1% decline from October. In December, CPI was 0.8% and PPI was - 1.9%, and the deflation risk continued to ease. The bond market is likely to fluctuate, and the 30 - 10 spread is expected to fluctuate at a high level [2][12]. - **20 - year CDB Bonds**: As of January 9, the 20 - year CDB bond - treasury bond spread was 14BP, at an extremely low historical position. The economic situation is similar to that of 30 - year treasury bonds. The bond market is likely to fluctuate, and the variety spread of 20 - year CDB bonds is expected to have a narrow - range fluctuation [3][13]. Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds is 24.3 trillion yuan. As of December 31, the total amount of ultra - long bonds with a remaining maturity of more than 14 years was 24.4329 trillion yuan, accounting for 15.1% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and treasury bonds are the main varieties. By variety, treasury bonds account for 28.2%, local government bonds 66.4%, etc. By remaining maturity, the 25 - 35 - year variety accounts for the highest proportion at 40.2% [14]. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week (January 4 - 9, 2026), the issuance of ultra - long bonds surged to 191.6 billion yuan. By variety, local government bonds accounted for 185.8 billion yuan. By term, 30 - year bonds accounted for 115.1 billion yuan [20]. This Week's Scheduled Issuance - The announced ultra - long bond issuance plan for this week is 84.2 billion yuan, including 32 billion yuan of ultra - long treasury bonds and 51.7 billion yuan of ultra - long local government bonds [24]. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, the trading of ultra - long bonds was very active, with a turnover of 984.1 billion yuan, accounting for 11.3% of the total bond turnover. The trading activity increased slightly compared with the previous week [28]. Yield - Due to factors such as central bank bond - buying and market conditions, the ultra - long bond yield reached a new high during the week. The yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, 30 - year, and 50 - year treasury bonds changed by 3BP, 4BP, 4BP, and 5BP respectively [38]. Spread Analysis - The term spread of ultra - long bonds widened last week, with an absolute low level. The variety spread also widened, with an absolute low level. The 30 - 10 treasury bond spread was 42BP, and the 20 - year CDB bond - treasury bond spread was 14BP [50][51]. 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2603 closed at 110.87 yuan, with a decline of - 0.48%. The trading volume increased significantly, and the open interest increased slightly [54].

上周股票型 ETF 净赎回 8.03 亿元，总体规模增加 1801.14 亿元。在宽 基 ETF 中，上周中证 500ETF 净申购最多，为 36.48 亿元；按板块来看， 周期 ETF 净申购最多，为 135.24 亿元；按热点主题来看，医药 ETF 净 申购最多，为 8.92 亿元。 ETF 基准指数估值情况 在宽基 ETF 中，创业板类、上证 50ETF 的估值分位数相对较低；按板 块来看，大金融、消费 ETF 的估值分位数相对温和；按照细分主题来看， 酒、新能车 ETF 的估值分位数相对较低。与前周相比，中证 1000、科 创板、消费、医药 ETF 的估值分位数明显提升。 证券研究报告 | 2026年01月11日 ETF 周报 上周军工、芯片主题领涨，股票型 ETF 规模突破 39800 亿 核心观点 金融工程周报 ETF 业绩表现 上周（2026 年 01 月 05 日至 2026 年 01 月 09 日，下同）股票型 ETF 周度收益率中位数为 4.31%。宽基 ETF 中，科创板 ETF 涨跌幅中位数 为 10.15%，收益最高。按板块划分，科技 ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 7.28%， 收益最高。 ...

Core Insights - The report continues to recommend innovative drugs and the related industry chain, highlighting the strong growth potential in the pharmaceutical sector through 2026 [1][4]. Investment Strategy - The investment strategy emphasizes the focus on the CXO sector, particularly in chemical CDMO, where Chinese companies hold significant advantages in talent, chemical capabilities, compliance production, and intellectual property protection [4]. - The report suggests that the upcoming JPM conference will provide updates on the operational progress of Chinese innovative drug companies, which have shown a long-term positive development trend [4]. - The recommended investment portfolio includes A-shares such as Mindray Medical, WuXi AppTec, and Aier Eye Hospital, as well as H-shares like Kangfang Biologics and WuXi Biologics [4][5]. Industry Performance - The pharmaceutical industry experienced a decline of 4.10% in December, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 6.38% [8]. - The report notes that the chemical pharmaceutical sector saw the largest declines among sub-sectors, with a drop of 5.80% [12]. Market Data - For the period from January to November 2025, the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry's total revenue was 220.65 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2.0% [7]. - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 45.61 trillion yuan, with retail sales of Western and Chinese medicines amounting to 660.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.8% [7]. Regulatory Environment - The report discusses the impact of the U.S. "Biological Safety Act," which is expected to have a limited short-term effect on Chinese CXO companies, while emphasizing the need to monitor the long-term implications of international competition and regulatory changes [22]. Recent Drug Approvals - In December 2025, a total of 16 innovative drugs or biosimilars were approved for market entry, including six domestic and ten imported products [24][25].

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月11日 公募 REITs 周报（第 49 期） 各板块普涨，交易活跃度提升 主要结论：本周中证 REITs 指数全周上涨 1.9%，各板块普涨，市场交易活跃 度也有所提升。从主要指数周涨跌幅对比来看，中证转债>沪深 300>中证 REITs>中证全债。截至 2026 年 1 月 9 日，产权类 REITs 股息率比中证红利 股股息率均值低 59BP，经营权类 REITs 内部收益率均值与十年期国债收益率 利差为 332BP。 中证 REITs 指数周涨跌幅为+1.9%，年初至今涨跌幅为+0.4%。截至 2026 年 1 月 9 日 ， 中 证 REITs （ 收 盘 ） 指 数 收 盘 价 为 793.05 点 ， 整 周 （2026/1/5-2026/1/9）涨跌幅为+1.9%，表现弱于中证转债指数（+4.4%）、 沪深 300 指数（+2.8%），强于中证全债指数（-0.1%）。年初至今，各类主 要指数涨跌幅排序为：中证转债（+23.9%）>沪深 300（+20.9%）>中证全债 （+0.5%）>中证 REITs（+0.4%）。近一年中证 REITs 指数回报率为-2.0 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年1月11日 锂电产业链双周报（2026年1月第1期） 四部委召开会议规范产业竞争，锂电池出口退税政策将陆续退出 行业研究 · 行业周报 电力设备新能源 · 锂电池 投资评级：优于大市（维持） 证券分析师：王蔚祺 010-88005313 wangweiqi2@guosen.com.cn S0980520080003 证券分析师：李全 021-60375434 liquan2@guosen.com.cn S0980524070002 证券分析师：徐文辉 021-60375426 xuwenhui@guosen.com.cn S0980524030001 联系人：王喆萱 wangzhexuan@guosen.com.cn 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 投资建议 【行业动态】 【风险提示】电动车销量不及预期，行业竞争加剧，原材料价格大幅波动，政策变动风险。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 • 固态电池产业化加速推进：政策端，首个车用固态电池国家标准《电动汽车用固态电池第1部分：术语和分类》公开征求意见。电池端，欣界能源2GWh固态锂金属电池项目投产；红旗研 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月11日 ETF 周报 上周军工、芯片主题领涨，股票型 ETF 规模突破 39800 亿 核心观点 金融工程周报 ETF 业绩表现 上周（2026 年 01 月 05 日至 2026 年 01 月 09 日，下同）股票型 ETF 周度收益率中位数为 4.31%。宽基 ETF 中，科创板 ETF 涨跌幅中位数 为 10.15%，收益最高。按板块划分，科技 ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 7.28%， 收益最高。按主题进行分类，军工 ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 13.50%，收益 最高。 ETF 规模变动及净申赎 上周股票型 ETF 净赎回 8.03 亿元，总体规模增加 1801.14 亿元。在宽 基 ETF 中，上周中证 500ETF 净申购最多，为 36.48 亿元；按板块来看， 周期 ETF 净申购最多，为 135.24 亿元；按热点主题来看，医药 ETF 净 申购最多，为 8.92 亿元。 ETF 基准指数估值情况 在宽基 ETF 中，创业板类、上证 50ETF 的估值分位数相对较低；按板 块来看，大金融、消费 ETF 的估值分位数相对温和；按照细分主题来看， 酒、新能车 ETF 的估 ...

垂类AI应用专题： AI重塑流量入口，重构广告营销模式 行业研究 · 行业专题 计算机 · 人工智能 2026年01月11日 证券研究报告 | 投资评级：优于大市（维持评级） | 证券分析师：熊莉 | 证券分析师：张衡 | 证券分析师：陈瑶蓉 | 联系人：侯睿 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 021-61761067 | 021-60875160 | 021-61761058 | hourui3@guosen.com.cn | | xiongli1@guosen.com.cn | zhangheng2@guosen.com.cn | chenyaorong@guosen.com.cn | | | S0980519030002 | S0980517060002 | S0980523100001 | | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 摘要 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 Ø 由AI聊天机器人和AI搜索引擎共同构成的AI搜索，已成为AI应用发展的核心引擎，用户模式从"搜链接"转向"向AI 要答案"。AI搜索正在重塑信息入口，购物推荐成为核心使用场景，推动品牌 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-bank financial sector [4][5][47]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant shift in resident wealth allocation due to a low interest rate environment, leading to a reallocation of funds from traditional savings to riskier assets [1][12][19]. - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" is characterized by a transition from slow outflows to a more concentrated release of funds, indicating a rapid increase in market risk appetite [2][29]. - The report anticipates that the pulse-like release of deposits will provide substantial incremental capital to the A-share and Hong Kong markets, potentially exceeding 500 billion yuan in the first quarter [3][12]. Summary by Sections Deposit Low-Interest Environment - Deposit rates have fallen below 2%, prompting residents to seek higher-yielding investments [1][17]. - The decline in deposit attractiveness is pushing savings towards wealth management products and other financial instruments [13][19]. Wealth Management Transformation - There is a notable shift in asset allocation from bank deposits to non-bank financial products, with household deposits decreasing while non-bank financial institution deposits are increasing [20][22]. - The capital market's performance since June 2025 has catalyzed this shift, with the A-share market experiencing significant gains, thereby attracting more funds [20][24]. Changes in Deposit Migration - The report notes that the upcoming maturity of a significant volume of deposits, particularly three-year fixed deposits, will lead to a concentrated outflow of funds, enhancing risk appetite [29][33]. - The breaking of the "rigid redemption" of wealth management products has led to a reassessment of risk among conservative investors, prompting a return to safer deposit options [29][39]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on non-bank financial institutions that are likely to benefit from the ongoing deposit migration trend, particularly in the insurance and brokerage sectors [3][43]. - Specific companies highlighted for their strong potential include China Life, Ping An, and major brokerage firms like CITIC Securities and Huatai Securities [4][43].