Asset Allocation Insights - Prioritize equity assets in asset allocation, with commodities showing long-term value and bonds requiring strict control of long-end risks[2] - A-shares are entering a "slow bull" phase supported by policy and debt-equity ratio advantages, while US stocks benefit from AI-driven efficiency gains[2] - Commodity prices are supported by AI-driven resource pricing, physical hoarding demand, and geopolitical "safety premiums"[2] Investment Strategies - Risk-seeking strategies should focus on "strong rate cuts + strong AI" combinations, emphasizing small and large-cap growth stocks and gold for high elastic returns[2] - Defensive strategies can adopt "strong rate cuts + weak AI" with long bonds, gold, and large-cap value stocks to secure stable returns and control drawdowns[2] - Low-volatility strategies may consider "weak rate cuts + weak AI" with cash and large-cap value stocks to lock in certain returns and avoid market volatility[2] Performance Metrics - Quadrant III (strong rate cuts + weak AI) shows the most stable performance with an annualized return of 16.67% and a Sharpe ratio of 2.48, with a maximum drawdown of -3.90%[11] - Quadrant I (strong rate cuts + strong AI) has a peak annual return of 40.15% in 2025, despite a -15% drawdown in 2023[11] - Quadrant II (weak rate cuts + strong AI) experienced a significant drawdown of -32.42% in 2023 but rebounded with a 29.35% return in 2025[11] Risk Considerations - Key risks include uncertainties in overseas monetary policy, geopolitical and trade disruptions, unexpected liquidity tightening, and potential tech valuation bubbles[54]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anta Sports is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][4][17] Core Views - In Q4 2025, Anta Group showed steady growth, with the main brand experiencing low single-digit negative growth, FILA achieving mid-single-digit positive growth, and other brands recording a 35-40% positive growth. For the entire year of 2025, the main brand also saw low single-digit negative growth, while FILA and other brands achieved 45-50% positive growth [2][4][5] - The overall performance of Anta Group is stable, with the main brand's growth affected by the broader market environment, while FILA's growth accelerated against the trend. Other brands like Descente and Kolon continued to show high growth, aligning with management's previous guidance for annual revenue growth across all brands [4][15] Summary by Sections Q4 Performance - Anta Group's overall growth in Q4 2025 was steady, with other brands maintaining high growth rates. The main brand's growth slowed sequentially, while FILA's growth accelerated. Online discounts improved, and inventory levels were healthy. The brand's channel upgrades and overseas expansion are progressing simultaneously [3][5][6] Brand Performance - Anta brand's revenue in Q4 2025 declined slightly, with a sales-to-inventory ratio slightly above 5 months. Online discounts narrowed year-on-year, and channel upgrades and overseas expansion are ongoing. The Champion series is expected to exceed 1 billion yuan in revenue by the end of 2025 [6][8] - FILA's revenue grew in the mid-single digits in Q4, with a healthy sales-to-inventory ratio and improved online discounts. Offline sales saw high single-digit growth, while online sales grew in the low double digits [9][10][11] - Other brands recorded a revenue growth of 35-40% in Q4, with Descente growing approximately 25-30% and Kolon growing around 55% [12][13] Financial Forecasts - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 13.21 billion, 13.93 billion, and 15.58 billion yuan respectively, with comparable profit growth rates of +10.7%, +5.5%, and +11.9% [17][18] - The reasonable valuation range has been adjusted to 107-112 HKD, corresponding to a 20-21X PE for 2026 [4][17]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anta Sports is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][4][17]. Core Views - Anta Group showed steady growth in Q4 2025, with the main brand experiencing low single-digit negative growth, while FILA recorded mid-single-digit positive growth, and other brands achieved a growth rate of 35-40% [2][4][5]. - The overall performance of the group aligns with the management's previous guidance for annual revenue growth across all brands [3][5]. - The company is expected to enhance its competitiveness in the global sports market through its multi-brand strategy and diversified brand matrix in China [4][15]. Summary by Sections Q4 Performance - In Q4 2025, Anta's main brand saw low single-digit negative growth, while FILA's growth accelerated, and other brands continued their high growth trajectory [2][5]. - The online discount rates for Anta and FILA improved, and inventory levels remained healthy [3][5]. Brand Performance - Anta's brand revenue declined slightly in Q4, with a year-end inventory-to-sales ratio slightly above 5 months, indicating a healthy inventory level [6][7]. - FILA's revenue grew in the mid-single digits, with a healthy inventory-to-sales ratio and improved online discount rates [9][10][11]. - Other brands, including Descente and KOLON, achieved revenue growth of 35-40%, with Descente's revenue growth around 40% for the year [12][13]. Financial Forecasts - The company revised its profit forecasts downward due to macroeconomic uncertainties, projecting net profits of 13.21 billion, 13.93 billion, and 15.58 billion yuan for 2025-2027, respectively [17][18]. - The reasonable valuation range has been adjusted to 107-112 HKD, corresponding to a PE ratio of 20-21x for 2026 [4][17]. Market Positioning - Anta's positioning in the mass market makes it more susceptible to external economic pressures, while FILA and other brands are expected to continue their growth despite market challenges [4][15].

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月21日 投资建议：公司快报数据显示的整体业绩表现较为稳定，与三季报相比变化 不大，目前公司拨备覆盖率仍处于较高水平，有助于维持业绩增长的稳定性。 我们维持盈利预测不变，预计公司 2025-2027 年归母净利润 292/317/341 亿 元，同比增速 7.6%/8.4%/7.7%；摊薄 EPS 为 4.27/4.64/5.01 元；当前股价 对应的 PE 为 6.7/6.2/5.7x，PB 为 0.82/0.74/0.67x，公司 2025 年动态股息 率估计为 3.4%，维持"优于大市"评级。 宁波银行（002142.SZ）2025 年度业绩快报点评 优于大市 业绩表现稳定 宁波银行披露 2025 年度业绩快报。公司 2025 年实现营业收入 720 亿元，同 比增长 8.0%，实现归母净利润 293 亿元，同比增长 8.1%，加权平均净资产 收益率 13.1%。 资产规模保持较快增长。公司 2025 年末资产总额 3.63 万亿元，较年初增长 16.1%，保持较快的扩张速度。其中年末贷款总额 1.73 万亿元，较年初增长 17.4%；存款总额 2.02 万亿元，较年初增 ...

资产规模保持较快增长。公司 2025 年末资产总额 3.63 万亿元，较年初增长 16.1%，保持较快的扩张速度。其中年末贷款总额 1.73 万亿元，较年初增长 17.4%；存款总额 2.02 万亿元，较年初增长 10.3%，增速相对较低，但活期 存款新增占比 高达 71%。公司 2025 年末归属于普通股股东的净资产 2225 亿 元，较年初增长 6.8%。年末核心一级资本充足率 9.34%，较年初下降 0.50 个百分点。 营收利润增速基本平稳，ROE 继续回落。公司 2025 年实现营业收入 720 亿元， 同比增长 8.0%，增速较前三季度略降 0.3 个百分点；2025 年实现归母净利 润 293 亿元，同比增长 8.1%，增速较前三季度略降 0.3 个百分点。其中，公 司 2025 年实现利息净收入 532 亿元，同比增长 10.8%，增速较前三季度略降 1.0 个百分点；全年实现手续费净收入 61 亿元，同比增长 30.7%，增速较前 三季度提高 1.4 个百分点；全年实现其他非息收入 127 亿元，同比下降 9.0%， 增速与前三季度持平。公司 2025 年实现加权平均净资产收益率 13.1% ...

Macro and Strategy - The macroeconomic report indicates a recovery in China's economy with a monthly GDP growth of 4.5% in December 2025, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [6][7] - The service sector is recovering faster than industrial production, with high-tech manufacturing showing significant growth compared to traditional industries [6] - The demand side shows a structural characteristic of weak domestic demand and strong external demand, with exports remaining a crucial support for the economy [7] Industry and Company Agriculture Industry - The report highlights a bullish outlook for cattle prices, indicating a potential reversal in the beef cycle, with prices for fattened cattle at 25.66 CNY/kg, up 0.59% month-on-month and 9.38% year-on-year [11][12] - The pig market is expected to stabilize, with prices at 12.69 CNY/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.44% [11] - The poultry sector shows mixed signals, with chicken prices slightly increasing while egg prices are under pressure due to high supply levels [11][12] Banking Industry - The banking sector is facing challenges due to an expanding gap between deposits and loans, with the gap reaching approximately 58 trillion CNY in 2025, up from about 40 trillion CNY in 2019 [16][17] - The report suggests that banks need to diversify their middle business operations to address this issue, with smaller banks focusing on wealth management and larger banks enhancing their comprehensive service capabilities [17] - The forecast for 2026 indicates a significant reduction in the decline of net interest margins, suggesting a potential recovery in the banking sector's fundamentals [18] Pharmaceutical Industry - The pharmaceutical sector is underperforming compared to the overall market, with a reported decline of 0.68% in the biopharmaceutical sector [19] - The report notes the successful IPO of Rebio Biotech, which focuses on small nucleic acid drugs, and highlights its partnerships with major pharmaceutical companies, indicating strong growth potential in this niche [19][20] Tencent Holdings - Tencent is expected to report a revenue of 194.6 billion CNY for Q4 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13%, driven by stable growth in gaming and advertising sectors [20][21] - The company is increasing its investment in AI, which is anticipated to enhance its operational capabilities and support future growth [20][23] - The gaming segment is projected to generate 58 billion CNY in revenue, with strong performances from titles like "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite" [21][22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector [4] Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector underperformed the overall market this week, with a 0.68% decline in the biotechnology sector compared to a 0.03% increase in the overall A-share market [1] - The report highlights the successful listing of Rebio Biotech on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, focusing on the small RNA industry and its potential [2] - Rebio Biotech has established a proprietary delivery platform, RiboGalSTAR, and has entered into commercialization partnerships valued at over $2 billion [2] - The core asset RBD4059, targeting FXI, is currently in clinical phase 2a studies in Sweden, showing promise in treating thrombotic diseases [2][21] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The overall A-share market increased by 0.03%, while the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.57%. The biotechnology sector saw a decline of 0.68% [1][26] - Within the biotechnology sector, chemical pharmaceuticals fell by 2.40%, while medical services rose by 3.29% [1][26] Company Overview - Rebio Biotech focuses on small RNA drug development, with seven products in clinical research, four of which are in phase 2 trials [2][9] - The company has a strong management team with extensive experience in drug development and production [16][18] Financial Projections - The report provides earnings forecasts for key companies, with Rebio Biotech's core asset RBD4059 showing significant potential in the thrombotic disease market [3][21] - The report recommends investment opportunities in the CXO sector and highlights the clinical progress of innovative drugs overseas [2][36] Valuation Metrics - The TTM P/E ratio for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector is 38.70x, compared to 22.18x for the overall A-share market [31] - Specific sub-sectors show varying P/E ratios, with chemical pharmaceuticals at 47.60x and medical services at 36.15x [31]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry, indicating expected performance above the market benchmark by over 10% [5][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant growth potential in the commercial aerospace sector, driven by SpaceX's ambitious goal of producing 10,000 Starships annually and achieving a launch frequency exceeding once per hour within three years [2][19]. - OpenAI is actively seeking domestic hardware suppliers in the U.S. for its expansion into consumer devices, robotics, and cloud data centers, emphasizing the critical role of hardware in software development [3][19]. Summary by Relevant Sections Commercial Aerospace - The report emphasizes the long-term investment opportunities in commercial aerospace, particularly focusing on key suppliers and the Blue Arrow Aerospace supply chain. Recommended companies include: 1. Rocket components: Huazhu High-Tech, Yingliu Co., Longxi Co. 2. Satellite assembly and testing: Guangdian Measurement, Sutest, Shanghai Huguang. 3. Other relevant companies: Zhongtai Co., Ice Wheel Environment [2][9]. AI Infrastructure - The report expresses optimism regarding the AI infrastructure sector, particularly in gas turbines and liquid cooling technologies. Key recommendations include: 1. Gas turbine components: Yingliu Co., Wanze Co. 2. Gas turbine generator sets: Jerry Co. 3. Other components: Haomai Technology, Liande Co. 4. Liquid cooling systems: Ice Wheel Environment, Hanzhong Precision Machinery, Liande Co. [3][9]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts and investment ratings for several companies, all rated "Outperform": 1. Green's Harmony (688017.SH): Target price of 220.50, market cap of 40.4 billion, EPS of 0.33 for 2024A. 2. Mingzhi Electric (603728.SH): Target price of 73.65, market cap of 30.9 billion, EPS of 0.19 for 2024A. 3. Huichuan Technology (300124.SZ): Target price of 80.85, market cap of 218.9 billion, EPS of 1.60 for 2024A [12][25].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [3][5]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector is expected to experience upward price trends, particularly in beef and dairy, while grain prices are stabilizing at historical lows [1][3][5]. - The supply-demand dynamics for corn and soybeans remain loose, with global ending stocks projected to increase, while domestic prices are expected to find strong support at current low levels [1][2][3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Corn - The USDA January supply and demand report forecasts a global corn production increase of 13.05 million tons (approximately +1.02%) to 1.283 billion tons for the 25/26 season, with a corresponding increase in the global ending stocks-to-use ratio by 0.86 percentage points to 22.38% [15][16]. - Domestic corn prices are currently at a historical low, with a slight month-on-month increase of 0.04% and a year-on-year increase of 10.30% [18]. Soybeans - The USDA report indicates a global soybean production increase of 3.14 million tons, with ending stocks projected to rise by 2.04 million tons (approximately +1.67%) to 124 million tons for the 25/26 season [33][34]. - Short-term support for soybean prices is expected from import costs, while long-term trends are anticipated to improve as Brazilian soybeans come to market [35]. Wheat - The USDA report predicts a global wheat production increase of 4.36 million tons (approximately +0.52%) for the 25/26 season, with the ending stocks-to-use ratio increasing by 0.37 percentage points to 33.77% [47][48]. - Domestic wheat prices are expected to stabilize at low levels, with current prices at 2,515 yuan per ton, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 0.15% [50]. Beef - The USDA forecasts a decrease in U.S. beef production for 2026, with prices expected to rise by approximately 5.1% year-on-year [3][19]. - Domestic beef prices are anticipated to maintain an upward trend due to reduced production capacity and lower imports [3][19]. Dairy - The USDA predicts a slight reduction in U.S. milk ending stocks, with prices expected to remain favorable due to a contraction in domestic dairy cow capacity [3][24]. - The interplay between meat and dairy sectors is expected to drive a recovery in dairy prices [3][24]. Pork - The USDA projects a 2.69% increase in U.S. pork production for 2026, with prices expected to remain stable at high levels [4][28]. - Domestic breeding sow capacity is being managed to support industry profitability [4][29]. Poultry - U.S. chicken production is expected to recover, with prices projected to perform well due to improved consumer demand [6][30]. - Domestic egg supply is anticipated to be ample, with a year-on-year increase in ending stocks by 23.5% [6][33]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include leading companies in the livestock, pork, poultry, and pet sectors, such as YouRan Agriculture and MuYuan [5][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [1][3]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the beef prices in the US are expected to maintain an upward trend in 2026, while global corn and soybean ending stocks for the 25/26 season are projected to increase [1][3]. - The agricultural products in the planting chain are currently in a bottom consolidation phase, awaiting upward movement [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Sections Corn - The USDA's January supply and demand report forecasts a global corn production increase of 13.05 million tons (approximately +1.02%) to 1.283 billion tons for the 25/26 season, with a corresponding increase in global ending stocks [15][16]. - The ending stocks-to-use ratio is expected to rise by 0.86 percentage points to 22.38%, with China's ratio increasing by 1.94 percentage points [15][17]. - Domestic corn prices are at historical lows, with a current price of 2318 CNY/ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.04% and a year-on-year increase of 10.30% [18]. Soybeans - The USDA report predicts a global soybean production increase of 3.14 million tons for the 25/26 season, with ending stocks projected to rise by 2.04 million tons (approximately +1.67%) to 124 million tons [33][34]. - The ending stocks-to-use ratio is expected to increase by 0.39 percentage points to 29.40% [33][34]. - Short-term focus is on South American weather, while long-term trends are expected to improve due to reduced domestic soybean stocks and strong import support [35][37]. Wheat - The USDA's January report indicates a global wheat production increase of 4.36 million tons (approximately +0.52%) for the 25/26 season, with ending stocks projected to rise by 3.38 million tons [47][48]. - The ending stocks-to-use ratio is expected to increase by 0.37 percentage points to 33.77% [47][48]. - Domestic wheat prices are currently at 2515 CNY/ton, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 0.15% [50][52]. Beef - The USDA forecasts a decrease in US beef production for 2026, with an expected overall price increase of approximately 5.1% [3][19]. - The report anticipates that domestic beef prices will maintain a bottoming upward trend due to reduced production capacity and import constraints [3][22]. Dairy - The report notes a slight decrease in US milk ending stocks for 2026, with expectations for domestic raw milk prices to begin an upward trend due to reduced production capacity and import reductions [3][24][26]. Pork - The USDA predicts a 2.69% increase in US pork production for 2026, with overall prices expected to remain high [4][28]. - Domestic breeding sow capacity is being steadily controlled, which is expected to support industry profitability [4][29]. Poultry - The report indicates that US chicken supply is expected to recover, with a slight increase in production and consumption [6][30]. - Domestic egg supply is projected to remain ample, with a year-on-year increase in ending stocks by 23.5% [6][33][34]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in leading companies in the livestock, pork, poultry, and pet sectors, including YouRan Agriculture, Modern Agriculture, and MuYuan Co., among others [6][8].