Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company, marking its first coverage [5]. Core Insights - The company is a leader in the Chinese yeast market and the second-largest yeast producer globally, with a total fermentation capacity of 400,000 tons and sales of 415,400 tons of yeast and deep-processed products expected in 2024 [1][3]. - The company has a comprehensive global layout with 11 production bases in China and overseas factories in Egypt and Russia, distributing products to over 160 countries and regions [1]. - The yeast industry is characterized by an oligopolistic structure, with the top three companies holding over 70% market share globally, and the company holds a 55% market share in China [1][42]. - The company has a strong competitive edge due to its global capacity and R&D system, with a consistent R&D expense ratio of over 4% and numerous domestic and international patents [2][3]. - The company is expected to benefit from a decline in raw material costs, particularly molasses, which is projected to support profit recovery as sugarcane planting areas expand in China [1][2]. Financial Projections - The company is forecasted to achieve total revenue of CNY 167.2 billion, CNY 188.4 billion, and CNY 210.0 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 10.0%, 12.6%, and 11.5% respectively [3][4]. - The projected net profit for the same period is CNY 15.8 billion, CNY 19.7 billion, and CNY 23.1 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.6%, 24.5%, and 17.3% respectively [3][4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be CNY 1.82, CNY 2.27, and CNY 2.66 for 2025 to 2027 [3][4]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 24.8, 19.9, and 17.0 for the years 2025 to 2027, indicating a potential premium of 10%-25% compared to the estimated valuation range of CNY 49.98 to CNY 56.79 [3][4].

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月21日 折溢价：20260120 当日 ETF 溢价较多的是智能电车 ETF 浦银，ETF 折价 较多的是游戏传媒 ETF 浦银。近半年以来大宗交易日均成交金额达到 23 亿 元，20260120 当日大宗交易成交金额为 10 亿元，近半年以来平均折价率 6.75%，当日折价率为 5.88%。近一年以来上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500、 中证 1000 股指期货主力合约的年化贴水率中位数分别为 0.68%、3.79%、 11.11%、13.61%，当日上证 50 股指期货主力合约年化升水率为 1.45%， 处于近一年来 90%分位点，当日沪深 300 股指期货主力合约年化贴水率为 0.04%，处于近一年来 91%分位点；当日中证 500 股指期货主力合约年化升 水率为 2.57%，处于近一年来 98%分位点；当日中证 1000 股指期货主力合 约年化贴水率为 1.40%，处于近一年来 98%分位点。 机构关注与龙虎榜：近一周内调研机构较多的股票是帝科股份、润丰股份、 海康威视、埃科光电、苏盐井神、中创智领、阿拉丁、英联股份等，帝科股 份被 123 家机构调研。20260 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Kweichow Moutai [5][6] Core Insights - Kweichow Moutai is undergoing a market-oriented transformation with a focus on a consumer-driven pricing mechanism, which is expected to reshape the competitive landscape and pricing formation in the industry [1][3][4] - The 2026 pricing system reform aims to create a "multi-price coexistence" ecosystem that aligns with consumer needs and enhances channel profitability through improved service [3][35] - The white liquor industry is transitioning from dependence on Moutai's demand to establishing independent ecosystems, leading to differentiated development among companies [4][29] Summary by Sections Investment Outlook - Short-term expectations indicate stable pricing for the flagship product, with anticipated sales growth during the Spring Festival [5] - Medium-term recovery in demand and product structure upgrades are expected to enhance profitability [5] - Long-term prospects remain positive as the company focuses on consumer-centric strategies and service capabilities, with potential for price increases and brand premium [5] Market Dynamics - The white liquor industry is shifting from a "follow-the-leader" growth model to a "differentiated competition" structure, driven by Moutai's market reforms [4][29] - The report highlights the importance of adapting to changing consumer preferences and market conditions, emphasizing the need for companies to build independent customer bases and market scenarios [4][29] Pricing Mechanism - The new pricing strategy breaks away from rigid factory prices, allowing for dynamic adjustments based on market conditions and consumer expectations [35] - The pricing reform is seen as a significant step towards marketization, ensuring channel profitability while stimulating sales [35] Company Performance Forecast - Revenue projections for Kweichow Moutai are set at CNY 183.3 billion, CNY 184.3 billion, and CNY 186.1 billion for 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year growth of 5.3%, 0.5%, and 1.0% respectively [5] - Expected net profit for the same period is CNY 90.45 billion, CNY 90.50 billion, and CNY 91.79 billion, with growth rates of 4.9%, 0.0%, and 1.4% respectively [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Kweichow Moutai [5][6] Core Insights - Kweichow Moutai is undergoing a market-oriented transformation with a focus on a consumer-driven pricing mechanism, which is expected to reshape the competitive landscape and pricing dynamics in the industry [1][3][4] - The 2026 pricing system reform aims to create a "multi-price coexistence" ecosystem that aligns with consumer needs and enhances channel profitability [3][35] - The white liquor industry is transitioning from dependence on Moutai's demand to establishing independent ecosystems, leading to differentiated development among companies [4][25] Summary by Sections Investment Outlook - Short-term expectations indicate stable pricing for the flagship product, with anticipated sales growth during the Spring Festival [5] - Medium-term recovery in demand and product structure upgrades are expected to enhance profitability [5] - Long-term prospects remain positive as the company focuses on consumer-centric strategies and service capabilities, with continued potential for price increases [5] Market Dynamics - The report highlights a shift in the white liquor industry towards a "product + service" economy, driven by changes in consumer preferences and market conditions [3][25] - The competitive landscape is evolving, with companies moving away from following Moutai's lead to developing their own customer bases and market strategies [4][25] Pricing Strategy - The new pricing mechanism breaks away from rigid factory prices, allowing for dynamic adjustments based on market conditions and consumer expectations [35] - The introduction of a multi-channel sales approach, including self-sale, agency sale, and consignment, aims to improve channel profitability and consumer access [34][35] Company Performance Forecast - Revenue projections for Kweichow Moutai are set at CNY 183.3 billion, CNY 184.3 billion, and CNY 186.1 billion for 2025-2027, reflecting growth rates of +5.3%, +0.5%, and +1.0% respectively [5] - Expected net profit for the same period is CNY 90.45 billion, CNY 90.50 billion, and CNY 91.79 billion, with growth rates of +4.9%, 0.0%, and +1.4% respectively [5]

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月21日 宏观经济季报 "反内卷"与结构突围——中国经济复盘与展望 2025 年中国经济复盘：2025 年，中国经济展现出强劲韧性，全年实际 GDP 同比增长 5.0%，顺利达成预期目标，但走势呈现"前高后低"。下半年以来， "反内卷"政策推动 GDP 平减指数企稳回升，显示政策在稳定价格方面初见 成效。 一个值得关注的规律是：当实际 GDP 增速高于 5.0%时，价格指数往往承压下 行；当增速低于 5.0%时，价格指标则趋于改善。这或许表明，现阶段国内有 效需求所能支撑的合意增长区间在 4.5%-5.0%左右。因此，四季度增速回落 至 4.5%时，政策并未强力刺激投资，旨在避免与"清理过剩产能、推动价格 回升"的核心目标相冲突。 从经济结构看，增长动力发生了关键转换。生产端，第二产业增速有所回落， 而第三产业增速回升，两者形成有效对冲。这一变化具有积极的结构性意义： 第二产业的适度减速有利于"反内卷"政策的推进，而服务业的加速发展则 能创造更多就业、提升居民收入，从而扩大内需、提振价格，并缓解整体增 长压力。需求端，增长引擎明显分化：资本形成（投资）的拉动作用减弱， 最终消费 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating for the company, marking its first coverage in this regard [4]. Core Insights - The company is positioned to benefit from low-cost green electricity in Inner Mongolia, with significant growth potential from overseas projects, particularly in Saudi Arabia [2][33]. - The company has established a competitive advantage through its geographical location, which allows for lower transportation costs of bauxite and electricity generation from low-cost brown coal [19][22]. - The integration of renewable energy sources is expected to further reduce operational costs, enhancing profitability [30][31]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company specializes in the production of alumina and electrolytic aluminum, with a significant portion of its revenue derived from electrolytic aluminum [11]. - Established in 2012, the company has developed substantial production capacity, including 300,000 tons of alumina and 788,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum [11]. Business Analysis - The alumina production facility is strategically located near major ports, resulting in lower transportation costs for imported bauxite, providing a cost advantage of over 200 RMB per ton compared to inland competitors [19]. - The electrolytic aluminum production benefits from low electricity costs due to the use of local brown coal, with self-generated electricity costs at approximately 0.3 RMB per kWh [22][23]. - The company plans to develop a 1,750 MW wind and solar project, which will significantly reduce electricity costs and enhance its green energy profile [30][31]. Financial Analysis - The company forecasts substantial growth in net profit, with projections of 3.1 billion, 5.0 billion, and 6.7 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting annual growth rates of 51%, 63%, and 34% [3][56]. - The earnings per share are expected to increase from 1.49 RMB in 2025 to 3.25 RMB in 2027 [3][56]. - The company maintains a strong EBIT margin and return on equity, indicating robust profitability compared to industry peers [47][49]. Valuation and Investment Recommendations - The report estimates a reasonable valuation range for the company between 32.5 and 40.7 RMB, suggesting a potential upside of 24% to 55% compared to its current market value [2][64]. - The valuation is supported by the company's expected high growth over the next five years, with a projected PE ratio of 12-15 times for 2026 [2][64].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the AI industry [1] Core Insights - The capital expenditure (Capex) guidance from major overseas companies is optimistic, with a continuous upward trend in computing power expected through 2026. The total Capex for Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta is projected to reach $406.5 billion in 2025 and $596.4 billion in 2026, representing year-on-year growth of 46% and 47% respectively [3][5][22] - The demand for AI-related infrastructure is driving significant upgrades in interconnects, cooling, and power supply sectors, indicating a long-term growth cycle distinct from previous technology cycles [3][4] Summary by Sections 1. Overseas Major Companies' Capex Guidance - Major companies like Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta are expected to increase their Capex significantly, with projections of $186.4 billion, $139.5 billion, $162.5 billion, and $108 billion respectively for 2026 [6][7][14][18][21] - The overall Capex for these four companies is expected to account for 62% of the global AI-related Capex, which is projected to reach $960 billion by 2026 [22][23] 2. Interconnect Sector: Optical Modules and PCBs - The interconnect sector is experiencing a fundamental shift in demand due to AI server cluster construction, leading to simultaneous upgrades in computing boards, switches, and optical modules, which will increase both demand and pricing [3][4] - The deployment of 800G technology is expected to accelerate, with 1.6T technology entering the introduction phase [3] 3. Cooling Sector: Liquid Cooling Demand - The power density of AI GPU racks is projected to rise from 130 kW in 2024 to over 1 MW by 2029, making liquid cooling technology essential [3][4] 4. Power Supply Sector: AIDC Power Distribution Evolution - The evolution of AIDC power distribution methods is crucial, with a focus on HVDC and SST technologies to enhance system efficiency and reduce energy losses [3][4] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on specific companies within various sectors: - Computing power: Haiguang Information - Interconnects - Optical modules: LightSpeed Technology, Huagong Technology - Interconnects - PCBs: Shenghong Technology, Shennan Circuits, and others - Cooling: Invec - Power supply: Magpow [3][4]

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月20日 2026年01月21日 创新实业（02788.HK） 优于大市 蒙东低成本绿电铝，海外项目助力产能高增长 公司是一家氧化铝和电解铝生产企业，电解铝营收占比90%。公司成立于2012 年，十几年间在蒙东霍林河建成 6*330MW 燃煤自备电机组和 78.8 万吨电解 铝产能，在山东滨州建成 300 万吨氧化铝产能，于 2025 年 11 月在港交所上 市。 产能地理位置优越，盈利能力行业领先。公司氧化铝产能靠近滨州港和黄骅 港，进口铝土矿内陆运费低廉，相比河南和山西等内陆产能，运费带来的氧 化铝成本优势在 200 元/吨以上。公司电解铝产能位于蒙东霍林河地区，使 用蒙东低热值褐煤发电炼铝，褐煤热值低、销售半径小，绝对价格和波动幅 度小于市场煤，公司近期自发电成本仅 0.3 元/度含税。相比新疆电解铝产 能聚集区，公司更靠近氧化铝产区和电解铝消费地，氧化铝运费和铝产品外 运费都低于新疆电解铝。公司净利率一直处于行业领先地位。 蒙东 1750MW 绿电并网后，煤电成本优势转变为绿电成本优势，同时实现低 碳和降本两个目标。公司 1750MW 风电光伏项目预计 2026 年全部 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月20日 制造成长周报（第 43 期） 优于大市 SpaceX 目标年产 1 万艘星舰，OpenAI 寻找美国硬件供应商 重点事件点评&重点关注：AI 基建、商业航天 事件 1-马斯克称 SpaceX 目标为每年生产 1 万艘星舰：2026 年 1 月 16 日，X 社交媒体上，马斯克称 SpaceX 目标为三年内星舰发射频率将超每小时一次， 明确 SpaceX 终极目标为每年生产 1 万艘星舰。 事件 2-OpenAI 寻找美国本土机器人、数据中心硬件供应商：2026 年 1 月 15 日，据华尔街见闻信息，OpenAI 正寻找美国本土的硬件供应商，为其计划中 的消费设备、机器人和云数据中心扩张寻找合作伙伴。 商业航天点评：马斯克对 SpaceX 的期望极高，星舰发射频率将超每小时一 次的目标，极大地拓展了商业航天的想象力，打开了行业成长空间。我们持 续看好商业航天的长期投资机会，建议重点关注商业航天核心环节供应商和 蓝箭航天产业链标的：1)火箭端重点关注重要结构件及 3D 打印新应用：【华 曙高科】、【应流股份】、【龙溪股份】；2）卫星端关注总装及检验检 测等环节：【广电计 ...

Asset Allocation Insights - Prioritize equity assets in asset allocation, with commodities showing long-term value and bonds requiring strict control of long-end risks[2] - A-shares are entering a "slow bull" phase supported by policy and debt-equity ratio advantages, while US stocks benefit from AI-driven efficiency gains[2] - Commodity prices are supported by AI-driven resource pricing, physical hoarding demand, and geopolitical "safety premiums"[2] Investment Strategies - Risk-seeking strategies should focus on "strong rate cuts + strong AI" combinations, emphasizing small and large-cap growth stocks and gold for high elastic returns[2] - Defensive strategies can adopt "strong rate cuts + weak AI" with long bonds, gold, and large-cap value stocks to secure stable returns and control drawdowns[2] - Low-volatility strategies may consider "weak rate cuts + weak AI" with cash and large-cap value stocks to lock in certain returns and avoid market volatility[2] Performance Metrics - Quadrant III (strong rate cuts + weak AI) shows the most stable performance with an annualized return of 16.67% and a Sharpe ratio of 2.48, with a maximum drawdown of -3.90%[11] - Quadrant I (strong rate cuts + strong AI) has a peak annual return of 40.15% in 2025, despite a -15% drawdown in 2023[11] - Quadrant II (weak rate cuts + strong AI) experienced a significant drawdown of -32.42% in 2023 but rebounded with a 29.35% return in 2025[11] Risk Considerations - Key risks include uncertainties in overseas monetary policy, geopolitical and trade disruptions, unexpected liquidity tightening, and potential tech valuation bubbles[54]