证券研究报告 | 2025年06月03日 港股 6 月投资策略 优于大市 IPO 火热给港股投资带来更多选择 美国：预计三季度通胀将快速攀升。按照我们的计算，Q3 开始美国核心通 胀将较 Q2 相比快速上升，下半年核心通胀将达到 3.8 左右。主要是因 为关税导致的核心商品价格的上涨加速，而房租、服务即便持平或者稍 有下降也无法对冲。因此我们认为市场目前预期的 3.2-3.3 的核心通胀 水平依然过于保守。 基于此，我们提示三季度美国股票、债券市场都将迎来较大的波动，投 资人应早做规划以应对不确定性的到来。 A 股：一季报后业绩分化，业绩驱动+低估值成为主线。5 月以来，分析师 对各个宽基指数在 2025 年的业绩进行了修正，其中科创 50 下修幅度较 大，上修的板块为红利、中证 500、深证成指与中证 1000。 反弹中，业绩，低估值与股价正相关，这说明 A 股已经从去年 9 月、今 年春节的情绪驱动转向业绩驱动。 港股：IPO 火热给港股投资带来更多选择。 上半年业绩不断上修、南向资金不断加码、美元指数走弱，这些都是支 撑港股中长期走强的理由。另一方面，也要考虑因为通胀带来的美债利 率的超预期上行，以及关 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年06月03日 港股 6 月投资策略 优于大市 IPO 火热给港股投资带来更多选择 美国：预计三季度通胀将快速攀升。按照我们的计算，Q3 开始美国核心通 胀将较 Q2 相比快速上升，下半年核心通胀将达到 3.8 左右。主要是因 为关税导致的核心商品价格的上涨加速，而房租、服务即便持平或者稍 有下降也无法对冲。因此我们认为市场目前预期的 3.2-3.3 的核心通胀 水平依然过于保守。 基于此，我们提示三季度美国股票、债券市场都将迎来较大的波动，投 资人应早做规划以应对不确定性的到来。 A 股：一季报后业绩分化，业绩驱动+低估值成为主线。5 月以来，分析师 对各个宽基指数在 2025 年的业绩进行了修正，其中科创 50 下修幅度较 大，上修的板块为红利、中证 500、深证成指与中证 1000。 反弹中，业绩，低估值与股价正相关，这说明 A 股已经从去年 9 月、今 年春节的情绪驱动转向业绩驱动。 3、红利方向：运营商、银行、公共事业业绩稳定，可以有效对抗不确 定性； 4、新股的机会：今年以来，港股的 IPO 表现惊艳，可适度考虑体量 IPO 上市后的表现，经检验，超过 300 亿市值的新 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年6月2日 ESG产品月报（2025.6） 质量优选、 "一带一路"ESG产品表现较好 策略研究 · ESG专题 证券分析师：王开 021-60933132 wangkai8@guosen.com.cn S0980521030001 证券分析师：陈凯畅 021-60375429 chengkaichang@guosen.com.cn S0980523090002 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 核心观点 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 ◼ ESG产品概况：ESG公募基金产品情况：新发数量波动显著，2024年11月与2025年3月达高峰，2025年2月及4月骤降；近两年整 体规模增长但分化明显，ESG策略基金与环境保护主题基金增速领先，纯ESG主题、社会责任及公司治理主题发展平缓（公司 治理产品数量稳定为20只）。ESG债券产品情况：ESG债券发行金额波动剧烈，2025年4月以1721.55亿元创峰值，1月仅378.44 亿元处于低谷；高评级（A级及以上）ESG债券共7只，涵盖绿色债与可持续发展挂钩债。ESG银行理财产品情况：发行量呈倒U 型趋势，2024年 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年06月02日 通信行业 2025 年 6 月投资策略 优于大市 高速光模块景气度持续，商业航天发展加速 （2）中长期视角，三大运营商经营稳健，分红比例持续提升，高股息价值 凸显，建议长期持续配置三大运营商。 6 月投资推荐组合：中国移动、天孚通信、华工科技、广和通。 风险提示：宏观经济波动、AI 发展不及预期、中美贸易摩擦等环境变化。 重点公司盈利预测及投资评级 | 公司 | 公司 | 投资 | 昨收盘 | 总市值 | EPS | | PE | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 代码 | 名称 | 评级 | （元） | （亿元） | 2024A | 2025E | 2024A 2025E | | 600941.SH | 中国移动 | 优于大市 | 116.83 | 25221 | 6.45 | 6.75 | 18.33 17.26 | | 300308.SZ | 中际旭创 | 优于大市 | 93.55 | 1038 | 4.72 | 8.08 | 26.74 12.70 | | 000063.SZ | 中兴通讯 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年06月02日 ETF 周报 本周科创板 ETF 规模超越 A500，成为第二大规模宽基 ETF 核心观点 金融工程周报 ETF 业绩表现 上周（2025 年 05 月 26 日至 2025 年 05 月 30 日，下同）股票型 ETF 周度 收益率中位数为-0.30%。宽基 ETF 中，中证 1000ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 0.76%，收益最高。按板块划分，消费 ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 1.01%，收益最 高。按主题进行分类，军工 ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 2.07%，收益最高。 ETF 规模变动及净申赎 上周股票型 ETF 净申购 73 亿元，总体规模减少 104.4 亿元；货币型 ETF 净申购 5.1 亿元，总体规模增加 5.3 亿元。在宽基 ETF 中，科创板 ETF 净 申购最多，为 15.7 亿元，其规模增加 13.3 亿元；中证 1000ETF 净赎回最 多，为 1.1 亿元，其规模增加 9.3 亿元。 ETF 基准指数估值情况 在宽基 ETF 中，创业板类 ETF 的估值分位数相对较低；按板块来看，消费、 周期 ETF 的估值分位数相对温和；按照细分主题来看，酒、光伏 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年06月02日 5 月 PMI 数据解读 关税影响暂时缓解，消费性服务业展现韧性 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-81982035 | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090003 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | | 联系人： | 王奕群 | | wangyiqun1@guosen.com.cn | | 事项： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 1 证券研究报告 5 月 31 日，5 月中国采购经理人指数（PMI）公布，其中制造业 PMI 为 49.5（环比+0.5pct）；非制造业为 50.3（环比-0.1pct）。 评论： 图1：中国 PMI 主要数据一览 | | | PM I | | 企业规模 | | 生产 | | 需求 | | 生存 | | 价格 | 配送 | 就业 | 预期 | | --- | --- | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the AIDC power equipment and grid industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The AIDC power equipment sector is experiencing a technological transformation in power distribution methods, with smart meter tenders expected to recover from a low point [5] - The global data center's AI computing load is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of 9.7GW, 15.9GW, and 20.2GW for the years 2025-2027, representing a CAGR of 54% [5][17] - The domestic data center industry is expected to see substantial capital expenditure growth in 2025, marking it as a pivotal year for AIDC construction [5] Summary by Sections AIDC Power Equipment - Companies like VRT and NVTS are collaborating with Nvidia to develop next-generation 800V HVDC architectures, which are anticipated to become mainstream in AI data center power systems [5] - The AIDC power equipment market is expected to benefit from the increasing demand for power supply systems, with key recommendations including Hewei Electric and Shenghong Co. [5] - The market space for transformers, switchgear, UPS, and traditional HVDC is projected to reach 75 billion, 298 billion, 287 billion, and 17 billion yuan respectively by 2026 [17] Grid - The investment in national power engineering reached 611 billion yuan in April 2025, a year-on-year increase of 11.8% [36] - The national grid engineering investment for April 2025 was 452 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of 2.4% [36] - The grid sector is expected to maintain high investment levels during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with annual investments estimated to exceed 700 billion yuan [5] Industry News - The domestic IDC investment is on the rise, with significant projects like the Southern Energy Big Data Center in Guizhou Province, which has a total investment of approximately 1.45 billion yuan [8] - Major cloud service providers are expected to continue increasing their capital expenditures, with Tencent and Alibaba planning substantial investments in AI computing infrastructure [23][28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the wind power industry [1] Core Views - The offshore wind sector is expected to see significant project launches in the first half of 2025, with over 25GW of approved projects awaiting bidding, marking 2025 as a record year for tenders. The average annual installation of offshore wind capacity is projected to exceed 20GW during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, significantly higher than the previous plan [4][11] - Onshore wind installations are anticipated to surpass 90GW in 2025, achieving a historical high, with stable main unit prices and cost reductions driving a rebound in profitability. The export of Chinese wind turbines is gaining momentum, with high growth in orders expected from 2025 to 2026 [4] - The profitability of components has been declining from 2022 to 2024, but a recovery is expected in 2025 [4] Summary by Sections Industry News - Recent bidding activities indicate a robust pipeline for both offshore and onshore wind projects, with significant investments planned in Guangdong and Jiangsu provinces [10] Market Performance - The wind power sector has experienced a general decline over the past two weeks, with the largest drops seen in casting and forging components, as well as complete machines and bearings [3][45] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on four key areas: 1) Leading companies in tower/pile production with high export potential 2) Leading submarine cable companies with expected recovery and opening export markets 3) Leading complete machine manufacturers with domestic profitability bottoming out and accelerating exports 4) Component manufacturers with opportunities for simultaneous volume and profit growth in 2025 - Recommended companies include Goldwind Technology, Oriental Cable, and others [5] Bidding and Installation Data - As of 2025, the cumulative public bidding capacity for wind turbines nationwide reached 48.8GW, with a year-on-year increase of 78%. The average winning bid price for onshore wind turbines (excluding towers) in 2025 is 1,720 RMB/kW [7][11] - In April 2025, China added 5.34GW of new wind power capacity, a year-on-year increase of 299%, bringing the total installed capacity to 541.19GW, accounting for 15.5% of total power generation capacity [7][40] Material Prices - Recent trends show a decline in the prices of black materials, with fiberglass and epoxy resin prices remaining stable [7][41]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][28][31] Core Views - The company is experiencing a short-term revenue decline due to storage price impacts, with a revenue of 1Q25 at 1.543 billion yuan, down 10.62% YoY and 7.58% QoQ. However, a gradual recovery in storage prices is expected in 2Q25, which may lead to performance improvement [1][20][28] - Embedded storage revenue for 2024 reached 4.241 billion yuan, a significant increase of 151.68% YoY, with products entering major client supply chains. AI-related products are also seeing rapid revenue growth, particularly in AI glasses, which are expected to grow over 500% YoY in 2025 [2][28] - The company is making steady progress in wafer-level advanced packaging, which is anticipated to drive long-term growth. The enterprise-level and automotive-grade storage segments are also expanding successfully [3][28] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - 1Q25 revenue was 1.543 billion yuan, with a net profit of -216 million yuan, reflecting a significant decline in profitability due to increased R&D expenses and inventory write-downs [1][28] - The company forecasts a gradual recovery in revenue, with expected net profits of 178 million yuan, 200 million yuan, and 382 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [28][29] Revenue Breakdown - Embedded storage is projected to generate revenues of 5.439 billion yuan, 6.459 billion yuan, and 7.363 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [28] - PC storage revenue is expected to be 2.206 billion yuan, 2.283 billion yuan, and 2.363 billion yuan for the same period [28] - Automotive-grade storage revenue is anticipated to grow to 155 million yuan, 294 million yuan, and 418 million yuan from 2025 to 2027 [28] Market Trends - The global storage market is experiencing a cyclical downturn, with NAND Flash prices expected to stabilize in 2Q25 after a decline in 1Q25. The company is well-positioned to benefit from this recovery [20][24] - The demand for AI-related storage products is increasing, particularly in the context of AI glasses and high-performance PC storage solutions [2][3][28]

Group 1: Overseas ESG Highlights - La Banque Postale launched an ESG-based tiered savings product to promote responsible investment[3] - Snam successfully issued $2 billion in multi-tranche sustainable development-linked bonds, marking a significant milestone in sustainable finance[3] - 87% of institutional investors in a BNP Paribas 2025 ESG survey reported that their sustainability goals remain unchanged, with 85% incorporating sustainability criteria into investment decisions[3] Group 2: Domestic ESG Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission approved the registration of aluminum alloy futures and options on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, marking the first recycled metal variety in China's futures market[3] - A hydrogen industry venture capital fund initiated by Sinopec has a first-phase scale of 5 billion yuan, emphasizing the growth of green finance in China[3] - The national carbon market now covers the steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries, making it the largest carbon market globally[3] Group 3: Policy and Regulatory Changes - The EU has granted a three-year compliance period for car manufacturers to meet carbon dioxide emission targets, reflecting a shift in regulatory approach[3] - The State Council of China issued guidelines to improve the market-oriented allocation of resource and environmental factors by 2027, including carbon trading systems[3] - The EU Ombudsman is investigating the European Commission's process for relaxing sustainability reporting and due diligence requirements, indicating ongoing scrutiny of corporate sustainability practices[3]