Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [4] Core Insights - In October, the year-on-year decline in new home sales and funds received significantly narrowed, indicating a potential stabilization in the real estate market [3][4] - The cumulative sales area of commercial housing from January to October 2024 showed a year-on-year growth rate of -15.8%, an improvement from -17.1% in the previous period [1] - The cumulative sales amount for the same period decreased by -20.9%, compared to -22.7% previously, with October's sales area and amount showing declines of -1.6% and -1.0% respectively [1] - The average sales price in October increased by 0.2% year-on-year, contrasting with a decline of -5.9% in the previous month [1] Summary by Sections Sales - The cumulative sales area for January to October 2024 is -15.8%, improving from -17.1% [1] - October's sales area decline was -1.6%, compared to -11.0% previously [1] - The cumulative sales amount decreased by -20.9%, with October showing a decline of -1.0% [1] - The average sales price in October increased by 0.2% year-on-year [1] Development Investment - The cumulative new construction area from January to October 2024 decreased by -22.6%, slightly worsening from -22.2% [2] - The cumulative completion area showed a year-on-year decline of -23.9%, an improvement from -24.4% [2] - Development investment decreased by -10.3% cumulatively, compared to -10.1% previously [2] - In October, the new construction area declined by -26.7%, while the completion area decreased by -20.1% [2] Funds Received - The cumulative funds received by real estate developers decreased by -19.2%, improving from -20.0% [3] - In October, the year-on-year decline in funds received was -10.8%, compared to -18.4% previously [3] - Domestic loans showed a decline of -8.8%, improving from -14.4% [3] - Personal mortgage loans also decreased by -8.8%, an improvement from -26.0% [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the central government's policy focus has shifted from stabilization to promoting stability, which is expected to positively impact the core city markets [3] - High-quality real estate companies in core cities, such as Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, and China Resources Land, are likely to benefit from this shift [3] - The report highlights that the increased support for high-quality real estate companies with market capabilities will provide good credit support [3]

Inflation Data - The US October CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year, matching expectations[2] - Core CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month and remained at 3.3% year-on-year, consistent with forecasts[2] Interest Rate Outlook - The anticipated interest rate cut of 25 basis points in December remains unaffected by inflation trends, with potential for rates to approach 4% if inflation risks decline[2][4] - The US 10-year Treasury yield is expected to remain between 4.6% and 4.85%, with models indicating it will not breach 5%[6] Market Sentiment - The stock market outlook is neutral to slightly positive, with long-term positions unchanged and short-term positions to be considered post-election[7] - The current economic environment suggests a stable inflation level, which supports the ongoing interest rate cut cycle without significant pressure[5] Economic Indicators - Housing prices contributed over 50% to inflation in October, indicating a tight housing market despite slight month-on-month easing[3] - Core inflation's seasonal rebound is viewed positively, reflecting a healthy economic state, particularly as the economy enters the traditional consumption peak in Q3 and Q4[3][5]

东兴证券研究报告 首席周观点：2024年第46周 P1 首席周观点：2024 年第 46 周2024 年 11 月 14 日 首席观点 周度观点 刘航 | 东兴证券电子行业首席分析师 S1480522060001，021-25102909，liuhang-yjs@dxzq.net.cn 电子行业：智驾芯片行业的春天 Q1：智能驾驶芯片是什么？MCU 及 SoC 是两种典型的计算芯片。MCU 是指一种只包含单个 CPU （中央处理器）作为处理器的传统电路设计。SoC 指片上系统，即一种集成电路设计，将特 定应用或功能所需的所有必要组件及子系统集成到单个微芯片，包括将 CPU、GPU（图形处理 器）、ASIC（专用集成电路）及其他组件集成到单个芯片。SoC 凭借计算能力提升、数据传 输效率提高、芯片使用量减少、软件升级更灵活等多项优势，已成为汽车芯片设计及应用的 主流趋势。 Q2：智驾 SOC 芯片的优点与挑战? SOC 具有减少体积、减少成本、低功耗高性能、提升系统 功能的优点；但面临了制造瓶颈、封装瓶颈、测试瓶颈等方便的挑战。 Q3：智能芯片的技术趋势是怎样的? 去 MCU 需要一定时间，立即去除 MCU 可 ...

东 兴 晨 报 东兴晨报 P1 东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 分析师推荐 【东兴金属及金属新材料】西部矿业（601168.SH）：持续优化的多金属采选 冶一体化西部龙头（II）-冶炼及多元板块拆分梳理（20241113） 投资要点： 铜冶炼产能受益于项目技改升级而逐步提高,。公司旗下青海铜业与西部铜材 负责铜冶炼的生产运营。2024 年西部铜材实施节能环保升级改造项目，采用 大极板和永久阴极的电解生产工艺，增加 10 万吨阴极铜年产能，实现铜电解 提质降耗及环保节能升级。预计 2024 年末，公司将形成电解铜产能 30 万吨/ 年（青海铜业与西部铜材各 15 万吨）。2019-2023 年期间，公司电解铜产量 CAGR 为 6.8%，由 2019 年的 14.04 万吨升至 2023 年的 18. 3 万吨。我们预计 2024 年公司或生产电解铜 21.79 万吨，同比增长 19.1%。 多金属改造项目助力铅锌冶炼产能升级。西豫金属与青海湘和分别负责铅与 锌的冶炼生产运营。2024 年，西豫金属开展环保升级及多金属综合循环利用 改造项目，计划于 9 月末试生产，投产后将形成电铅 20 万吨/年、金锭 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4]. Core Viewpoints - The company achieved a revenue of 652 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.03%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders was -99.09 million yuan, a decline of 229.47% compared to the previous year [1][2]. - The company is focusing on expanding its Mini-LED backlight display module market, particularly in the automotive sector, which is expected to grow significantly [3][4]. - The company is optimizing its product structure and investing in new energy vehicles and smart connected vehicles, aiming to enhance profitability through diversified product offerings [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company's gross margin was 10.25%, showing a quarter-on-quarter improvement of 0.80 percentage points. The gross margin for the first three quarters was 10.67%, down 3.74 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The net loss for Q3 2024 was -31.41 million yuan, which is a reduction in loss compared to Q2 2024. The operating cash flow was -9.63 million yuan, a decline of 112.04% year-on-year [2]. Market Outlook - The global Mini-LED backlight module market is projected to reach 5.7 billion USD by 2026, with the automotive Mini-LED products already in mass production as of June 2024 [3]. - The personal computer market is expected to recover, with an estimated shipment of 267 million units in 2024, a growth of 8% from 2023 [3]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is strategically investing 170 million yuan to establish a fund focused on new energy vehicles and smart connected vehicles, aiming to strengthen its supply chain [4]. - The company is enhancing its operational management to reduce costs and improve efficiency, thereby increasing production yield and developing high-value-added products [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report highlights that China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) has shown significant growth in oil and gas production, with a healthy cash flow and promising growth potential for the future [1][2][3] - In the first three quarters of 2024, CNOOC achieved total operating revenue of RMB 326.02 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 116.66 billion, up 19.5% year-on-year [1][2] - The company signed four new offshore oil exploration contracts in Brazil, expanding its overseas exploration potential [1][6] Group 2 - Oil and gas sales revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached approximately RMB 271.43 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.9%, with net production of 542.1 million barrels of oil equivalent, up 8.5% year-on-year [2][3] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved net production of 179.6 million barrels of oil equivalent, a year-on-year increase of 7.0% [2][3] - The company maintained a competitive cost advantage, with the main cost per barrel of oil at USD 28.14, remaining stable year-on-year [3] Group 3 - CNOOC's operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2024 increased by 14.9% year-on-year to RMB 182.77 billion, indicating stable cash flow [3][6] - The company has increased capital expenditures, with capital spending of approximately RMB 95.34 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.6% [6][7] - The report forecasts that CNOOC's revenue for 2024-2026 will be RMB 434.99 billion, RMB 461.22 billion, and RMB 487.60 billion, with net profits of RMB 145.94 billion, RMB 155.04 billion, and RMB 167.93 billion respectively [8] Group 4 - CNOOC's dividend payout ratio for 2023 was 43.5%, and the expected average dividend yield for 2024-2026 is projected to be 4.34% [8] - The report maintains a "strong buy" rating for CNOOC, emphasizing its strong cost control capabilities and stable performance [8] Group 5 - The report indicates that CNOOC's new projects, including the development of the Bohai Zhong 19-2 oil field and the Payara project in Guyana, are expected to contribute to its long-term growth [7][8] - The company is positioned to benefit from the global economic outlook, which is expected to maintain weak growth, while China's economy shows a long-term positive trend [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Insights - The company has established a stable mining operation and a vertically integrated industrial chain, covering mining, non-ferrous metallurgy, financial trading, and salt lake chemicals, making it a significant player in the western region of China [2][14] - The copper smelting capacity is expected to increase due to technological upgrades, with a projected production of 217,900 tons of electrolytic copper in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.1% [2][19] - The multi-metal transformation projects are enhancing lead and zinc smelting capacities, with expected production of 128,800 tons of zinc ingots in 2024, an increase of 8.4% year-on-year [3][23] Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company was established in May 2000 and has successfully achieved a vertically integrated layout across its operations, focusing on copper, lead, zinc, and iron resources [14] - The company has a strong research capability, with 36 national patents filed, including 5 invention patents [14] 2. Smelting Capacity Upgrades - The copper smelting segment is seeing improvements through energy-saving upgrades, with a total electrolytic copper capacity expected to reach 300,000 tons per year by the end of 2024 [19] - The lead and zinc smelting segment is undergoing multi-metal recycling upgrades, with lead production capacity expected to double to 200,000 tons per year [3][23] 3. Salt Lake Chemical Industry - The company is actively involved in the construction of a world-class salt lake industry base, with significant magnesium salt resources and a projected annual production of 500,000 tons [4][27] - In 2023, the company's magnesium products generated revenue of 462 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.29% [4][27] 4. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 49.62 billion yuan, 55.08 billion yuan, and 60.92 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 3.84 billion yuan, 4.64 billion yuan, and 5.49 billion yuan [4][7] - The expected EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 1.61 yuan, 1.95 yuan, and 2.30 yuan, with PE ratios of 9.49X, 7.86X, and 6.65X [4][7] 5. Trading and Financial Services - The company has subsidiaries focused on metal trading and financial services, contributing to risk management and market opportunities [33][34] - In 2023, the metal trading segment generated revenue of 13.02 billion yuan, accounting for 30.7% of total revenue, while the financial services segment had a revenue of 250 million yuan, with a high gross margin of 88.86% [33][34]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the M1 growth rate has improved on a month-on-month basis, and fiscal funds are being utilized more rapidly [2][3] - The overall social financing data for October meets expectations, showing marginal improvement in household credit issuance and a narrowing decline in M1, while corporate financing demand still requires recovery [7] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The banking industry consists of 48 listed companies, with a total market capitalization of 123,004.28 million yuan, accounting for 12.41% of the market [1] - The average price-to-earnings ratio for the industry is 5.86 [1] Social Financing Data - In October, new social financing amounted to 1.4 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 448.3 billion yuan, with a stock social financing growth rate of 7.8%, down 0.2 percentage points month-on-month [2][3] - The main contribution to new social financing came from government bonds, which accounted for 75% of the new social financing [3] Credit and Loans - New RMB loans in October were 500 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 238.4 billion yuan, with a loan balance growth rate of 8%, down 0.1 percentage points month-on-month [4] - Household loans showed improvement due to supportive policies in the real estate sector, with new household loans increasing by 160 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 194.6 billion yuan [4] Deposits and Monetary Supply - M1 decreased by 6.1% year-on-year, but the month-on-month decline narrowed by 1.3 percentage points, while M2 grew by 7.5%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.7 percentage points [5][12] - The report indicates that fiscal deposits increased by 595.2 billion yuan, reflecting accelerated fiscal spending [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the net interest margin is expected to stabilize, and asset quality improvement may lead to a gradual enhancement in bank profit expectations [7] - Two main investment lines are recommended: short-term focus on cyclical, high-growth stocks and long-term focus on stable high-dividend stocks [8]

Group 1: Company Overview - The core viewpoint of the report highlights that Poly Developments maintains a solid leading position in the real estate industry, focusing on a "central city + urban agglomeration" strategy, with a sales ranking that has risen to first place in the industry [1][2] - In H1 2024, the company achieved a contracted sales amount of 173.36 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 26.8%, while its market share increased from 2.94% in 2021 to 3.68% in H1 2024 [1][2] - The company has significantly reduced its land acquisition intensity, with a new project land price to sales amount ratio dropping to 7.3% in H1 2024, while focusing on high-energy cities [1][2] Group 2: Land and Project Development - The company has been actively reducing its land reserve scale while enhancing the quality of its land reserves, with the proportion of high-energy cities in its ongoing projects increasing to 68.1% by the end of H1 2024 [2] - The proportion of new construction projects in high-energy cities has also risen, reaching 67.4% by the end of H1 2024 [2] - The company’s unsold land reserve area was 130.46 million square meters at the end of H1 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 9.9% [2] Group 3: Financial Performance and Forecast - The report forecasts that the company's net profit attributable to shareholders will be 11.04 billion yuan, 11.55 billion yuan, and 13.17 billion yuan for the years 2024 to 2026, with corresponding EPS of 0.92, 0.97, and 1.10 yuan [3] - The company’s revenue for 2023 was 346.83 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 23.4%, and the real estate business revenue was 322.5 billion yuan, growing by 25.7% [4] Group 4: Banking Sector Overview - The banking sector has shown an improvement in profitability, with a year-on-year increase in net profit of 1.43% in the first three quarters of 2024, and a revenue decline of only 1.05% [6][22] - The net interest margin has narrowed its decline, benefiting from improved liability costs, with most banks experiencing a reduction in margin decline of 0-5 basis points compared to the first half of the year [8][24] - The overall asset quality remains stable, with the non-performing loan ratio holding steady at 1.25% as of the end of Q3 2024 [26] Group 5: Market Trends and Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that bank stocks are in a favorable position due to low valuations and stable dividend yields, recommending a focus on high-growth stocks in strong economic regions [27] - The anticipated stabilization of net interest margins and improvement in asset quality are expected to enhance bank profitability forecasts [26][27] - The report emphasizes the importance of ongoing fiscal policies and their potential impact on the real estate market, indicating a shift from stabilization to proactive measures [30]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Recommend" rating for Western Mining (601168 SH) based on its strong resource expansion potential and diversified product layout in new energy metals like magnesium and lithium [7][58] Core Views - Western Mining has stable mine operations and vertical integration advantages across the mining, smelting, financial trade, and salt lake chemical sectors [2] - The company has abundant mineral resources and is upgrading capacity through expansion projects, with ore processing capacity CAGR of 4 7% from 2020-2023 [2] - Copper has become the core business, contributing over 50% of revenue and gross profit in 2023 [3] - The Yulong copper-molybdenum mine is a key growth driver, with copper reserves of 5 58 million tons and plans to expand annual capacity to 18-20 million tons [4] - Western Mining is China's second largest lead-zinc concentrate producer, with ongoing multi-metal upgrading projects to boost capacity [5] Business Overview - The company has formed a stable mine operation layout nationwide and achieved vertical integration across mining, smelting, trade and chemicals [15] - It holds 15 mines with total resources of 593 million tons of copper, 154 million tons of lead, 266 million tons of zinc, and 37 million tons of molybdenum [24] - The Yulong copper mine has 558 million tons of copper reserves (94 1% of total) and 37 million tons of molybdenum reserves, with molybdenum gross margin reaching 92 29% in 2023 [31][32] - Lead-zinc operations are stable, with the Xitieshan mine contributing over 50% of lead-zinc concentrate output [41] Financial Projections - Revenue is forecast to grow from 49 62 billion yuan in 2024 to 60 92 billion yuan in 2026, with net profit increasing from 3 84 billion to 5 49 billion yuan [7] - EPS is projected at 1 61 1 95 and 2 30 yuan per share for 2024-2026, with P E ratios of 9 49X 7 86X and 6 65X respectively [7] - Copper concentrate output is expected to reach 16 41 million tons in 2024, up 25% year-on-year [36] - Lead and zinc concentrate production is forecast to increase to 65 000 tons and 130 000 tons respectively by 2025 [41] Industry Analysis - Global refined copper supply-demand balance shows a widening deficit, with consumption growth outpacing production growth from 2024-2026 [48] - China accounts for over 50% of global copper consumption, with demand driven by green energy transition and new infrastructure [51] - The 2024-2027 period may see global copper consumption increase by 11 3% to 113 45 million tons, with annual growth of 2 88% [50]