公 司 研 究 聚灿光电（300708.SZ）：利润明显 改善，终端需求持续回暖 2024 年 8 月 1 日 推荐/维持 聚灿光电 公司报告 ——公司 2024 年半年报业绩点评 事件： 2024 年 7 月 30 日，聚灿光电发布 2024 年半年度报：公司实现营业收入 13.34 亿元，同比增长 11.24%，扣非归母净利润 1.05 亿元，同比增长 443.68%。 点评： 公司 2024 年上半年度营收同比增长 11.24%，毛利率为 14.60%，同比增加 4.67pct，利润明显提升。2024 年上半年度公司实现营业收入 13.34 亿元，毛 利率为 14.60%，同比增加 4.67 pct。LED 芯片及外延片毛利率为 25.50%，同 比增加 8.39 pct。2024H1 公司净利润 1.13 亿元，同比增长 351.03%，主要 是公司对市场需求精准把握，高端产品性能提升、结构升级。随着市场终端需 求回暖，公司产能释放、生产效率提升，高端产品量价齐升，带动营业收入和 毛利率增长。现金流方面，2024H1 经营情况回暖，销售回款增加，经营活动 产生的现金流净额为 24347.4 万元，较去 ...

银行行业：上半年理财规模稳步增 长，收益率小幅下降 2024 年 8 月 1 日 看好/维持 银行 行业报告 ——银行理财市场半年报点评 事件：7 月 30 日，银行业理财登记托管中心发布《中国银行业理财市场半年 报告（2024 年上）》，我们点评如下： 上半年银行理财规模稳步增长，Q2 以来增长更快；与监管整顿手工补息、银 行压降高息存款后，存款进一步分流有关。上半年新发理财产品 1.54 万只， 累计募集资金 33.68 万亿，较去年同期多增 5.93 万亿。截至 6 月末，全市场 存续理财产品 4.00 万只，较年初增长 0.49%；存续规模 28.52 万亿元，较 年初增长 6.43%。单季度来看，Q2 理财规模增长更快。一方面，在 4 月监管 整顿存款手工补息之后，部分企业存款流向理财、债基；另一方面，银行上半 年持续压降大额存单等高息存款产品、挂牌利率陆续下调，居民存款搬家亦较 为明显。 理财公司存续产品规模占比持续提升，未持牌银行理财规模将面临进一步压 降。从各类机构来看，截至 6 月末，已设立的理财公司共 32 家，包括国有大 行 6 家、股份行 12 家、城商行 8 家、农商行 1 家、合资 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [3][8]. Core Views - The company's feed business is expected to maintain a growth in both volume and profit, while the pig farming segment has turned profitable [2][3]. - The company achieved a revenue of 52.296 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.84%, but a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.125 billion yuan, up 93.15% year-on-year [2]. - The feed sales revenue was 41.341 billion yuan, down 3.19% year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in raw material prices and feed selling prices [2]. - The company’s feed sales volume increased by 8% year-on-year, with significant growth in aquaculture and poultry feed sales [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 4.098 billion, 5.168 billion, and 6.017 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.46, 3.11, and 3.62 yuan [3][9]. - The projected PE ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 18, 14, and 12 times respectively [3][9]. - The company’s feed business gross margin for the first half of 2024 was 9.76%, an increase of 1.23 percentage points from the full year of 2023 [2][3]. - The total revenue is expected to grow from 104.715 billion yuan in 2022 to 159.106 billion yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 12.62% [9]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is actively adjusting its customer structure and expanding into large-scale farming groups to counteract the decline in pig feed sales due to reduced inventory among small and medium-sized farmers [2][3]. - The company has achieved over 1 million tons in overseas feed sales, marking a 30% year-on-year increase, indicating potential for new growth avenues [2][3]. Analyst Insights - The report emphasizes the company's multi-dimensional core cost advantages that will continue to support its main feed business and enhance market share amid fierce competition [3][11]. - The professional capabilities in pig farming are improving, and the company is focusing on continuous research and development in animal health and breeding [2][3].

煤炭行业：煤价承压，下游焦企的 产能利用率继续提升 2024 年 8 月 1 日 看好/维持 煤炭 行业报告 国内外动力煤价格继续下行。截至 7 月 18 日，秦皇岛动力煤山西优混 5500 平仓价格 848 元/吨，环比上月降 2.53%；内蒙古乌海 Q5500 大卡动力煤车板 含税价 720 元/吨，环比上月降幅 2.04%；大同南郊 Q5500 大卡动力煤车板含 税价 760 元/吨，环比降 2.56%。截至 7 月 18 日，澳大利亚纽卡斯尔港 NEWC 动力煤离岸价格 133 美元/吨，环比上月下跌 0.75%。 煤及褐煤月度进口量环比上月上涨。6 月，煤及褐煤月度进口量达到 4460 万 吨，环比上月上涨 78 万吨，涨幅为 1.80%。 六大发电集团煤炭库存量月环比上月上涨，其日均耗煤量月环比同比均上涨。 截至 7 月 18 日，六大发电集团煤炭库存共 1462 万吨，环比上月涨 0.12%， 同比涨 6.10%。六大发电集团日均耗煤量共 92.75 万吨，环比上月涨 13.80%， 同比涨 3.37%。 国内海运费环比上月微涨。截至 7 月 18 日，从秦皇岛到上海航线上 4-5 万 DWT ...

房地产百强房企 1-7 月销售数据点 评：百强房企销售降幅略微收窄， 央国企销售环比显著下滑 2024 年 8 月 1 日 看好/维持 房地产 行业报告 全口径销售额 top100： 根据克而瑞的数据，2023年 1-7 月 top100房企销售金额同比降幅较上月收窄， 分组来看，top10 房企整体销售降幅最小。 1-7 月，top100 房企实现销售金额（全口径）23143.5 亿元，同比增速为-39.7%； 1-6 月同比增速为-41.8%。 1-7 月，top10 / top11~top20 / top21~top30 / top31~top50 / top51~top100 房 企的销售金额（全口径）同比增速分别为-32.7% / -44.8% / -46.6% / -46.1% / -43.3%。 重点房企销售： 根据克而瑞的数据，2023 年 1-7 月，我们跟踪的 36 家重点房企中，央企+国 企(12 家)环比显著下滑，销售情况弱于混合所有+民企（24 家）。 1-7 月，36 家重点房企全口径销售金额同比增速的中位值为-45.4%；其中，央 企+国企（12 家） / 混合所有+民企（24 ...

证券行业：行业经营层面存在不确定性， 静待政策指明方向 2024 年 8 月 1 日 看好/维持 非银行金融 行业报告 ——证券行业 2024 中期策略 分析师 刘嘉玮 电话：010-66554043 邮箱：liujw_yjs@dxzq.net.cn 执业证书编号：S1480519050001 投资摘要： 严监管趋势持续，券商投行、信用等多业务遭受影响，证券板块上半年表现跑输大市。截至 6 月 30 日，上证综指、上证 50、 沪深 300 和申万二级证券指数年内涨幅分别为-0.25%、2.95%、0.89%和-13.38%，证券板块表现跑输市场核心宽基指数。 政策层面延续严监管态势，优化资本市场环境&规范市场参与主体行为仍是核心主线。作为连接投资者、资本市场和实体经 济的重要桥梁，证券公司业绩的外生因素颇多，各项业务均受到宏观经济环境、政策、流动性和市场行情的影响。年初以来， 监管政策向规范资本市场各类主体行为倾斜，严监管成为政策主旋律。新"国九条"从上市公司发行全流程层面从严监管， 优化资本市场环境。而对融券、转融券业务的限制加强以及对高频量化交易的从严监管体现出监管层对交易公平，维护中小 投资者利益的重 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the real estate industry for 2024 [1] Core Viewpoints - The real estate industry is expected to build a bottom and nurture a recovery in 2024, with a projected total sales area of 957 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 14.3% [1][4] - The sales amount for 2024 is estimated at 9.58 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 17.9% [1][4] - The report highlights that the demand side shows signs of stabilization, while the supply side continues to face significant investment pressure [2][3] Summary by Sections Sales - The total sales area for commercial housing in 2024 is projected to be 957 million square meters, down 14.3% year-on-year [1][4] - The cumulative sales area for the first half of 2024 is expected to show a year-on-year decline of 19.0% [1][8] - The average sales price for commercial housing in 2024 is forecasted to be 10,004 yuan per square meter, a decrease of 4.2% year-on-year [1][16] Supply - New construction area is expected to be 769 million square meters in 2024, down 19.4% year-on-year [2][21] - The total construction area at the end of 2024 is projected to be 7.303 billion square meters, a decrease of 12.9% year-on-year [2][28] - The completion area for 2024 is estimated at 785 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 21.4% [2][35] Investment - The total real estate development investment for 2024 is projected to be 937 billion yuan, down 15.5% year-on-year [2][46] - The cumulative investment amount for the first half of 2024 is expected to show a year-on-year decline of 10.1% [2][42] Housing Prices - The report indicates that second-hand housing prices in lower-tier cities have undergone significant adjustments, while the new housing market in core cities is expected to stabilize first [2][6] - As of June 2024, the price index for newly built residential properties in 70 major cities has decreased for 13 consecutive months, while the second-hand housing price index has declined for 14 consecutive months [2][46] Investment Strategy - The report suggests that core cities are experiencing a structural imbalance in supply rather than a lack of demand, which may benefit quality real estate companies focused on these areas [3][6] - The ongoing demand from first-time buyers and the increasing supply of quality second-hand homes are expected to sustain transaction volumes in the second-hand housing market [3][6]

Group 1: Semiconductor Industry Insights - The establishment of the "Big Fund Phase III" with a registered capital of 344 billion yuan aims to support the development of AI chips, advanced semiconductor equipment, and semiconductor materials, with a focus on addressing bottlenecks in the semiconductor industry [1] - Compared to previous phases, Phase III has significantly increased its registered capital and extended its investment duration to 15 years, indicating a long-term commitment to the semiconductor sector [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of learning from Japan and South Korea's successful "government + industry" models to enhance China's semiconductor industry, particularly in overcoming trade frictions and technology blockades [2] Group 2: Investment Strategies in Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor industry is viewed as a critical national asset requiring continuous support in technology, talent, and capital, with a focus on reverse-cycle investments to enhance the competitiveness of leading companies [2] - Recommended investment targets include companies benefiting from the semiconductor industry's transition, such as SMIC, Hua Hong Semiconductor, and others involved in upstream materials and equipment [2] - The report highlights the AI chip sector and advanced packaging as promising investment areas, with specific companies identified for potential growth [2] Group 3: Communication Industry Developments - The communication sector has shown strong performance, with the communication index rising by 3.7% in the first half of 2024, ranking sixth among 31 primary industries [3] - The report anticipates significant growth in satellite internet, particularly with the launch of domestic GW constellations and G60 Starlink, which are expected to enhance broadband connectivity in underserved areas [3][4] - Key technologies in satellite internet include core networks, base stations in space, phased array antennas, and laser inter-satellite links, which are crucial for the development of this sector [4] Group 4: Investment Outlook for Communication Sector - The report suggests focusing on satellite internet core component manufacturers as investment opportunities, given the expected industrialization of satellite internet in the second half of 2024 [4] - The communication industry is expected to see stable demand for optical fiber and cable, while AI-driven growth in optical modules and data centers is anticipated [4] - The report identifies specific companies in the satellite internet supply chain that are likely to benefit from the upcoming launches and technological advancements [4] Group 5: Coal Industry Performance - The coal sector has shown strong performance with a cumulative increase of 11.96% in the first half of 2024, outperforming the broader market [9] - The report indicates that coal prices are expected to stabilize due to long-term contracts and increasing demand for coal-fired power generation [9][10] - The coal industry is characterized by low valuations and high dividend yields, making it an attractive investment opportunity in the current economic environment [10] Group 6: Transportation Industry Insights - The transportation sector has experienced a modest increase of approximately 5.6% in the first half of 2024, with infrastructure-related stocks performing well [11] - The report highlights the importance of high-dividend stocks in the transportation sector, particularly in the express delivery and highway segments [12] - It anticipates a gradual improvement in the express delivery market as price wars are expected to ease, benefiting leading companies in the sector [11][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry in 2024, specifically highlighting the recovery of the breeding chain and the rise of new pet consumption [1]. Core Insights - The supply-demand dynamics are expected to support a continued upward trend in pork prices in the second half of the year, with supply constraints and improved demand during the consumption peak season [9][21]. - The report emphasizes the cyclical price increase in the sector, with profitability beginning to materialize, and recommends focusing on leading companies in the pig farming sector such as Muyuan Foods and others [2][25]. - The poultry farming segment is experiencing structural shortages in white chickens, while yellow chicken profitability is improving, indicating a positive outlook for the meat chicken industry chain [33]. Summary by Sections 1. Swine Farming - Supply-demand dynamics are expected to support pork prices, with a forecast of continued price increases in the second half of the year due to supply constraints and improved demand [9][21]. - The report highlights that the breeding stock of sows has been decreasing, with a significant reduction from the peak in 2022, which is expected to impact pork supply [9][11]. - Key recommended stocks include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuffs, and others, which are expected to benefit from the rising pork prices [2][25]. 2. Poultry Farming - The white chicken segment is facing structural shortages due to a lack of breeding stock, while the yellow chicken segment is seeing profitability improvements [33]. - The report suggests focusing on upstream suppliers of parent and commercial chicken breeds, as well as commercial meat chicken farming enterprises [33]. 3. Animal Health - The recovery in farming profitability is anticipated to boost the animal health industry, with increased demand for veterinary products, particularly for pigs [2][3]. - Long-term growth is expected from the introduction of new vaccine products, with leading companies in research and development being recommended [2]. 4. Feed - Demand for pig feed is expected to rebound, while aquaculture feed is also projected to improve due to a recovery in raw material prices [2]. - Companies with strong formulation development and cost control capabilities are expected to stand out in the competitive landscape [2]. 5. Crop Seed Industry - The report notes a stable supply of staple grains in 2024, with a focus on the acceleration of biotechnology breeding and the impact of La Niña weather patterns on crops [3]. - Companies that have early investments in genetically modified seeds and leading technology are recommended for monitoring [3]. 6. Pet Industry - The pet food export business is experiencing rapid growth, and domestic market consumption remains resilient, with local brands gaining market share [3]. - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the pet food sector that are adapting to health and refinement trends in consumer preferences [3].

DONGXING SECURITIES 商社行业2024年中期策略：关注国内高 性价比消费和品牌出海 | --- | |--------------------| | 2024 年 7 月 31 日 | | /维持 | | 行业报告 | 分析师 刘田田 电话：010-66554038 邮箱：liutt@dxzq.net.cn 执业证书编号：S1480521010001 分析师 魏宇萌 电话：010-66555446 邮箱：weiym@dxzq.net.cn 执业证书编号：S1480522090004 投资摘要： 观点综述：2024 年上半年消费需求整体偏弱，消费能力和消费信心均尚有较大恢复空间。在消费能力不足的背景下，消费者 更加理性，高性价比消费趋势持续显现，线上消费仍旧好于线下消费行业。在此背景下，商社板块上半年整体走势较为一般， 但也有部分公司提前打造了品牌势能，或受益于消费结构趋势变化，获得了较好的业绩和市场表现。展望下半年，我们认为 国内消费信心的恢复需要较长时间的修复，居民商品消费将延续慢复苏的节奏，消费结构上更偏重于理性消费及性价比、实 用性。与此同时，海外消费相对较为坚挺，且库存水平降到较低位 ...