Group 1: Macro Overview - The U.S. economy is expected to experience a traditional consumption peak in the second half of the year, with a low probability of recession. High-income growth has significantly declined, while low-income growth remains stable, indicating typical post-cycle characteristics. Real disposable income per capita has fallen below CPI year-on-year, suggesting a slight weakening of consumption momentum [2][6] - Bank credit has loosened, which is beneficial for investment rebound, and corporate interest expenses as a percentage of GDI are at historical lows. However, the April non-farm payrolls fell short of expectations, primarily due to a decline in local government employment, while cyclical industry employment has remained low for four consecutive months [2][6] - The report suggests that while there is a marginal improvement in inventory replenishment, the sustainability of this improvement remains uncertain. A recession is viewed as delayed rather than absent, with the earliest interest rate cut potentially linked to a core CPI drop of 0.4% [2][6] Group 2: Domestic Economic Conditions - The anticipated recovery in exports at the end of last year is driving a rebound in manufacturing investment, although overseas data does not yet support this [3][9] - The report indicates that the recovery in consumption growth is not as strong as last year due to base effects, and the GDP growth target of 5% requires active macro policy support. Current policies align with the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference held in December last year, indicating a consistent approach [9] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends a moderate increase in allocation to short-term bonds with maturities of two years or less, maintaining positions in U.S. stocks without increasing exposure, and not reducing gold positions [7][22] - The report emphasizes the importance of investing in blue-chip stocks represented by the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, as their performance is highly correlated with the economic cycle and shows slight leading indicators [22] Group 4: Company-Specific Insights - Dongxing Securities highlights the company’s strategic entry into the carbon fiber processing sector, with a focus on high-quality products that have attracted premium clients in the consumer electronics industry, including Lenovo [11][27] - The company’s revenue is steadily growing, and while its gross margin has faced some decline since 2020 due to industry fluctuations, it is gradually recovering in 2023 [11][27] - The company has set ambitious performance targets through its stock incentive plan, aiming for a revenue of no less than 1.32 billion in 2024 and a cumulative revenue of no less than 3.22 billion from 2024 to 2025, reflecting strong confidence in its growth trajectory [15][28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Alibaba-SW, indicating an expected performance that is significantly better than the market benchmark index by over 15% [20][30]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 211.9 billion yuan for Q1 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 7%. However, the adjusted net profit decreased by 11% to 24.418 billion yuan [1][21]. - The focus on strategic priority businesses has led to a double-digit growth in domestic e-commerce GMV, driven by improvements in user shopping experience and product efficiency [5][18]. - The international business segment saw a remarkable revenue increase of 45%, with international retail business growing by 56% [18]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Breakdown: - Chinese commercial segment revenue was 93.216 billion yuan, up 4% year-over-year [18]. - International commercial segment revenue reached 27.448 billion yuan, up 45% [18]. - Local life services revenue increased by 19% to 14.628 billion yuan [18]. - Cainiao revenue grew by 30% to 24.557 billion yuan [18]. - Cloud business revenue was 25.595 billion yuan, a 3% increase [18]. - The entertainment segment revenue slightly declined by 1% to 4.945 billion yuan [18]. - The report forecasts net profits for the fiscal years 2025-2027 to be 140.5 billion yuan, 151.5 billion yuan, and 164.1 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10X, 9.3X, and 8.6X [22].

经济要闻 1. 国务院：从严控制铜、氧化铝等冶炼新增产能 合理布局硅、锂、镁等 行业新增产能。国务院印发《2024—2025 年节能降碳行动方案》，方 案要求，优化有色金属产能布局。严格落实电解铝产能置换，从严控制 铜、氧化铝等冶炼新增产能，合理布局硅、锂、镁等行业新增产能。大 力发展再生金属产业。到 2025 年底，再生金属供应占比达到 24%以上， 铝水直接合金化比例提高到 90%以上。新建和改扩建电解铝项目须达到 能效标杆水平和环保绩效 A 级水平，新建和改扩建氧化铝项目能效须达 到强制性能耗限额标准先进值。新建多晶硅、锂电池正负极项目能效须 达到行业先进水平。（资料来源：同花顺 7x24 快讯） 2. 央行：人民银行开展 2600 亿元逆回购操作，公开市场实现净投放 2580 亿元。中国人民银行 5 月 30 日公告称，为维护月末流动性平稳，当日 人民银行以利率招标方式开展了 2600 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，中标利 率为 1.80%。由于今日有 20 亿元逆回购到期，公开市场实现净投放 2580 亿元。（资料来源：同花顺） 3. 财政部：财政部今年将在香港发行 550 亿元人民币国债。经国务院批准 ...

现在开始播报免责声明 并不构成对具体证券在具体价位具体时点具体市场表现的判断或投资建议研究人员的发言内容仅代表当日的判断具体请参见完整版的研究报告依照监管要求和保密原则任何机构或个人严禁对本次会议内容录音制作纪要转发转载传播复制编辑修改等涉嫌违反上述情情等我们将保留一切法律权利感谢您的理解和支持谢谢 好的我们开始今天的会议各位领导下午好我是交通运输行业的分析师曹一峰今天和大家沟通的是快递行业的一些近况以及投资的推荐我们知道随着五月中旬中通把一级报发出来应该说快递行业主要公司的一级报都已经出来了 对于一季报的话其实如果各位看这个行业对这个行业有一定关注的话会发现就是一季报的特点非常鲜明首先从行业来看行业的典型特点就是件量的增速是超预期的但是它的价格的降幅同样也是超预期的今年一季度的话从件量来看行业应该说是维持了去年下半年以来的较高的一个同比增速 如果说23年行业的高增速里面其实有22年疫情影响的因素在的话24年Q1行业的这种同比的高增速其实确实也超出了市场的预期中通在财报中表示新型直播电商和社交品牌的蓬勃发展刺激了大众的线上消费也带动了快递业务量的增长但是在与此同时的话行业的单价也是出现了一个比较大的下降 今年 ...

本次会议局面向受邀的东兴证券研究所的白名单客户会议中嘉宾的发言内容仅代表其个人观点所有信息或所表述的意见均不构成对具体证券在具体价位、具体时点、具体市场表现的判断或投资建议研究人员的发言内容仅代表当日的判断具体请参见完整版的研究报告依照监管要求和保密原则任何机构或个人严禁对本次会议内容、录音 制作机要转发转载传播复制编辑修改等涉嫌违反上述情情的我们将保留一切法律权利感谢您的理解和支持谢谢各位领导下午好我是东新证券能源行业研究员莫文娟我本次推荐的金股是广汇能源 哦我将分享一下我的观点广汇能源它的全称是广汇能源股份有限公司股票代码600256是第一家同时拥有煤气油三种资源的民营能源企业成立于一九九四年并于两千年五月二十六日在上交所成立二零一二年成功转型为专业化的能源开发上市公司 是国内外第一家同时拥有煤气油三种资源的企业同时也是一家集汕中下游为一体的大型能源上市公司初步形成了煤炭、天然气、煤化工、清洁能源 碳补给与利用的五大产业格局截至2024年3月18日公司控股股东为新疆广汇实验投资集团有限责任公司持有公司34.23%的股份实际控股人为孙广信 他的主营收入的话持续我们从2020年到2023年的话2023年达到了 ...

好的 非常感谢大家来参加我们这个关于半年度的大类资产配置报告的分析那么我们的观点呢主要就是海内外的这个风险和风险资产的配置的一些大概的一些观点那么从海外上来说的话呢我们建议适度增配两年期以内的利率短债美股的话我们建议是维持仓位 不建议加仓 建议密切关注短期资金的流动性黄金方面我们建议维持当前的黄金仓位从历史的角度来说黄金在以往的特朗普的参选年黄金的行情均可以持续到9月份所以这是我们对于海外方面的一些配置方面的建议 然后是国内方面那么国内方面的话我们建议是适度增配A股主要是以上证股为代表的蓝筹股那么蓝筹股的整体表现与经济周期特别是在2019年以后具有很高的相关性并且蓝筹股的表现是优优领先的 那么随着这个地产政策的陆续落地那么相关的这个金融性的金融性行动风险有显著的几个下降那么结合这个美股在次贷危机以后的处理它也是以确认地产相关的行动性风险有下降有关所以我们从这一点上来说的话那么上周五因为下载了单车股仍然是具有这个配置的一些价值 那么第二个就是以政策重点支持的这个科技创新那么对于雇收方面的话我们认为经营的利率还是相对来说比较低的所以可以适度的转向雇收加累的这样的一个产品可能性价比会相对来说高一些那么具体来看的话海 ...

事件：声网发布 2024 年 Q1 财报：2024 年一季度，公司实现营业收入 33 百万 美元，同比减少 9.4%，环比减少 8.4%；净利润亏损 9.46 百万美元，Non-GAAP 净利润亏损 4.8 百万美元。 聚焦实时音视频赛道，发布视频、体育直播、大模型等应用场景解决方案。（1） 海外业务方面，公司上线自适应视频优化技术，可以提升视频质量、流畅度以及 实现超低时延。代表性客户 KUMU 采取自适应视频优化技术以来，平台整体用 户参与度提升 30%；（2）近期 OpenAI 推出 GPT-4o，支持端到端实时多模态将 成为当下大模型发展的新趋势，实时文本、音视频传输能力将成为实时大模型的 标配。目前公司已可以大模型厂商提供基于大模型的全链路实时音视频方案；（3） 国内业务方面，公司发布赛事直播解决方案，主要应用于赛事观看、一起看比赛、 大 V 解说、明星陪看等场景。公司已经开始与国内头部领体育转播平台合作，为 2024 欧洲足球锦标赛和巴黎奥运会直播带来更高级的观赛体验。 盈利预测与评级：实时音视频场景持续扩大以及公司全球市场布局，2024-2026 年公司恢复增长趋势。我们预计 2024-2026 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Agora (API.NASDAQ) [1] Core Insights - In Q1 2024, Agora reported revenue of $33 million, a year-over-year decrease of 9.4% and a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 8.4%. The net loss was $9.46 million, with a Non-GAAP net loss of $4.8 million [1][2] - The decline in overall revenue is attributed to a decrease in domestic usage during the Spring Festival and regulatory pressures in the live streaming industry, while overseas revenue showed growth due to emerging market dynamics [2] - The company is focusing on expanding its real-time audio and video solutions, including adaptive video optimization technology and new applications in sports and AI [3] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are $142.5 million (0.7% growth), $162.5 million (14.0% growth), and $185.8 million (14.3% growth) respectively. Expected net losses are projected at $34.1 million, $33.5 million, and $31.3 million for the same periods [6][7] - Gross margin for Q1 2024 was 61.2%, down 1.4 percentage points year-over-year, primarily due to reduced customer usage [2] - The company has effectively managed costs, with R&D expenses at $18.14 million (54.9% of revenue), sales expenses at $6.81 million (20.6%), and management expenses at $8.38 million (25.4%) [2] Market Position and Future Outlook - Agora's overseas business is expected to grow rapidly in 2024, driven by new applications in live streaming e-commerce and AI [2] - The company has launched several solutions targeting real-time audio and video applications, enhancing user engagement and experience [3] - The report anticipates a recovery in growth trends from 2024 to 2026, supported by the expansion of real-time audio and video scenarios and global market strategies [3]

东 兴 晨 报 分析师推荐 配置方面，建议适度增配 2 年期以内的利率短债；美股维持仓位，不建议加 仓，密切关注短期资金流动性；黄金仓位不减。 风险提示：美国大选落地前后，特朗普的对外政策可能与当前政府有所不同； 国内需求不足导致经济放缓。 A 股新股日历（日内上市新股） 名称 价格 行业 上市日 东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 利率方面，美国十年期国债利率维持下限 3.65~3.85%和上限 4.6~4.75%。股 市方面，美股短期风险不大，但类似 1997-2000 年的长期趋势泡沫再次出现。 历次泡沫湮灭均与货币政策收紧有关，鉴于美联储进入降息通道，去年四季 度我们从中性谨慎转为中性，中性是对泡沫的警惕，去掉谨慎是目前没有流 动性问题。黄金行情可持续至 9 月。除去市场广泛接受的地缘政治、货币政 策等因素，以往特朗普参选年，黄金行情均可持续至 9 月。 资产方面，建议适度高配 A 股，一为以上证 50 为代表的蓝筹股。蓝筹股的整 体表现与经济周期有高度相关性，并略有领先。随着地产政策陆续落地，地 产相关的金融系统性风险显著下降，风险偏好有所提升。美股在次贷危机后 的触底也是与确认地产相关的系统性 ...

Economic Overview - Inflation remains sticky, providing a basis for loose monetary policy[2] - Current economic state shows natural recovery with slight improvement in net exports[12] - Domestic economy is recovering but requires time, with service sector recovery being sustainable[8] Monetary Policy - Global trend is shifting towards interest rate cuts, potentially starting by the end of Q2[4] - The necessity for rate cuts within the year is decreasing, with the U.S. not likely to return to long-term low rates seen from 2008 to 2022[41] Capital Markets - U.S. stock market shows low short-term recession risk, with no significant risk points identified[21] - A-shares are at a bottom range, with the Shanghai Composite Index's 5-year PB moving average still below 0.9[44] - Recommendations include increasing allocation to U.S. short-term bonds with maturities under 2 years[25] Real Estate and Investment - Real estate sector shows slight improvement compared to 2023, but significant recovery is challenging[8] - Investment is slightly declining due to export and real estate investment drag[142] Consumer and Retail - Consumer spending is expected to support the economy, although growth may be slightly below 2023 levels[58] - Retail sales growth is not keeping pace with service consumption[147]