Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (首次) [1] Core Views - The company has established itself as a leader in the engineering machinery market with a diverse product range, including concrete machinery, excavators, and cranes, achieving high market recognition [3][15] - The engineering machinery industry is expected to stabilize and recover in 2024, driven by domestic demand and continued growth in overseas markets [3][31] - The company possesses four key competitive advantages: strong core product advantages, advancements in electrification, accelerated overseas expansion, and a focus on digital transformation [3][31] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Founded in 1989, the company has evolved from a small factory to a leading enterprise in the domestic engineering machinery sector, with a rich product line and significant market recognition [3][9] - The company has a stable shareholding structure, with the actual controller holding a significant portion of shares, ensuring stability in management [11][12] Industry Outlook - The engineering machinery industry has entered a down cycle since 2021, but signs of recovery are emerging, particularly in excavator sales, which have shown positive growth in early 2024 [31][33] - Domestic demand is expected to stabilize due to improvements in real estate and infrastructure projects, while overseas markets continue to be a major growth driver [3][31] Competitive Advantages - The company has a clear advantage in core products, with the highest market share in excavators and a leading position in concrete machinery globally [3][15] - The company has committed to electrification, with significant revenue from electric and hybrid products, positioning itself as a leader in the new energy engineering equipment sector [3][31] - The overseas revenue share has increased from 25.1% in 2018 to 60.5% in 2023, indicating successful international expansion [3][31] - The company is advancing its digital transformation, enhancing its core competitiveness through smart products and manufacturing [3][31] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 786.98 billion yuan in 2024 to 983.56 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding net profits expected to rise from 58.33 billion yuan to 100.11 billion yuan during the same period [3][4] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to increase from 0.69 yuan in 2024 to 1.18 yuan in 2026, with a current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 23, 16, and 13 for the respective years [3][4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance met expectations, with a focus on accelerating overseas capacity construction [1] - In the first half of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 20.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.3%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 860 million yuan, up 12.5% year-on-year [5][6] - The company is enhancing its profitability through overseas projects, including a nickel refining and precursor integration project in South Korea and a collaboration in Morocco for battery materials [6] Financial Performance - The closing price is 28.95 yuan, with a market capitalization of 27.1 billion yuan [2] - The total share capital is 937 million shares, with a circulating share ratio of 97.09% [2] - The overall gross margin for the first half of 2024 was 12.77%, an increase of 1.67 percentage points year-on-year [5] - The net profit margin for the same period was 5.76%, up 0.87 percentage points year-on-year [5] Profit Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024-2026 is adjusted to 2.02 billion, 2.42 billion, and 2.87 billion yuan, respectively [6] - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected at 9, 8, and 6 times for the respective years [6] Key Financial Indicators - Revenue for 2024E is projected at 33 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of -3.7% [7] - The gross margin is expected to be 13.2% in 2024E, slightly down from 13.9% in 2023A [10] - The return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to be 9.2% in 2024E, compared to 9.8% in 2023A [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue growth of 8% year-on-year for H1 2024, but net profit decreased by 49% due to stock incentive expenses [1] - The lubricating system business experienced a decline in gross margin, while the hydraulic system revenue saw a significant increase of 95.85% year-on-year, contributing 24.52% to total revenue [1] - The company is actively expanding its product applications beyond wind power, with positive results observed in sectors such as construction machinery and rail transportation [1] Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 118.17 million and a net profit of 16.28 million, reflecting a year-on-year change of +20.31% and -43.53% respectively [1] - The average gross margin for the lubricating system was approximately 44.72%, down by 5.36 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The company expects revenues of 518 million, 722 million, and 1 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 91 million, 151 million, and 229 million [2][3] Key Financial Metrics - The projected P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 31.69, 19.15, and 12.58 respectively [2][4] - The gross margin is expected to decline from 44.4% in 2023 to 39.2% in 2024, before stabilizing around 39.2% in 2026 [2][4] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 4.2% in 2024 to 8.9% in 2026 [2][4]

厦钨新能（ [Table_StockNameRptType] 688778） 公司点评 业绩符合预期，钴酸锂出货稳步增长 [Table_Rank] 投资评级：买入（维持） 报告日期： 2024-09-10 主要观点： ⚫[Table_Summary] 业绩 | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------|-----------------| | | | | [Table_BaseData] 收盘价（元） 近 个月最高 最低（元） | 26.75 | | 12 / 总股本（百万股） | 44.49/25.32 421 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 421 | | 流通股比例（ % ） | 100.00 | | 总市值（亿元） | 113 | | 流通市值（亿元） | 113 | [公司价格与沪深 Table_Chart] 300 走势比较 -48% -33% -18% -2% 13% 9/23 12/23 3/24 6/24 厦钨新能 沪深300 [Table_Author] 分析师：张志邦 执业证书号：S00 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance met expectations, with silicon-based products leading the industry. The negative electrode shipment volume remains the highest in the industry, and gross margin has improved year-on-year. The company is also accelerating product research and development, with silicon-based negative electrode products ahead of peers [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 7.038 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 47.57%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 493 million yuan, down 41.84% year-on-year. The company achieved a negative electrode revenue of 5.179 billion yuan, with a shipment volume exceeding 200,000 tons, representing an 18.96% year-on-year increase [1][2]. - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 29.385 billion yuan in 2023 to 40.297 billion yuan by 2026, with current assets increasing from 13.866 billion yuan to 26.781 billion yuan over the same period [2][3]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin is expected to decline from -28.4% in 2023 to -27.4% in 2024, before improving to 30.7% in 2025 and 8.6% in 2026. The net profit margin is projected to be -2.2% in 2023, -9.9% in 2024, and then recover to 17.1% in 2025 and 14.9% in 2026 [3][2]. Market Position - The company is one of the earliest producers of silicon-based negative materials in China, with a production capacity of 49.5 thousand tons per year for negative materials as of the report date. The company is also focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvements through various initiatives [1][2].

[Table_StockNameRptType] 金融工程 专题报告 RSAP-DFM：基于连续状态的动态因子模型 ——"学海拾珠"系列之二百零四 [Table_RptDate] 报告日期：2024-09-11 [Table_Author] 分析师：骆昱杉 执业证书号：S0010522110001 邮箱：luoyushan@hazq.com 分析师：严佳炜 执业证书号：S0010520070001 邮箱：yanjw@hazq.com 5. 《宏观趋势与因子择时——"学海 拾珠"系列之一百九十九》 6. 《另类情绪指标与股票市场收益之 间的关系——"学海拾珠"系列之一 百九十八》 7. 《基金在风格层面的情绪择时—— "学海拾珠"系列之一百九十七》 8. 《宏观环境对价值溢价的影响—— "学海拾珠"系列之一百九十六》 主要观点： [Table_Summary] 本篇是"学海拾珠"系列第二百零四篇，文章提出了一个基于连续 状态的动态因子模型 RSAP-DFM，该模型自适应地提取连续的宏观经济 信息，并通过双重状态转换对股票收益的进行动态显式映射，引入遵循 对抗学习思想的后验因子有效地纠正了先前因子映射的偏差。 [ ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for Qianhe Flavor Industry, highlighting its strong growth potential in the zero-additive soy sauce market [1][63]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the rapid increase in penetration rates for zero-additive soy sauce, with Qianhe achieving continuous high growth over four consecutive quarters since Q4 2022 [1][3]. - The zero-additive soy sauce market is projected to reach a scale of 45 billion yuan, with a significant portion (60%) coming from lower-tier markets [1][25]. - Qianhe's product structure is expected to optimize as the zero-additive product ratio increases, leading to improved profit margins [1][52]. Summary by Sections 1. Review: Rapid Increase in Zero-Additive Penetration - The sales share of zero-additive soy sauce rose from 4.7% in Q1 2022 to 11.9% in Q3 2023 [3][4]. - Qianhe has achieved high growth rates of 54.92%, 69.81%, 33.76%, and 48.45% year-on-year in Q4 2022, Q1 2023, Q2 2023, and Q3 2023 respectively [3][5]. 2. Current Trends in the Zero-Additive Market - The price of Qianhe's zero-additive soy sauce has dropped to 5 yuan for 500mL, reflecting a trend towards cost-effectiveness [1][12]. - The online sales share for Qianhe reached approximately 20%, significantly higher than competitors [1][17]. 3. Future Market Space Exploration and Qianhe's Profitability Assessment - The zero-additive soy sauce market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 10.6% over the next ten years, outpacing the overall soy sauce market [1][41]. - Qianhe's gross margin for soy sauce is projected to improve by 1.24 percentage points under neutral assumptions over the next five years [1][46]. 4. Comparison: Insights from Community Group Buying - The report draws parallels between the current trends in zero-additive soy sauce and the community group buying model, emphasizing the importance of cost-effectiveness and proximity to consumers [1][54].

1 2024年9月8日 韬晦以静待，厚积为薄发 证券研究报告 ——2024年四季度A股投资策略 分析师：郑小霞 SAC执业证书号：S0010520080007 邮箱：zhengxx@hazq.com 分析师：刘一超 SAC执业证书号：S0010520090001 邮箱：liuchao@hazq.com 分析师：张运智 SAC执业证书号：S0010523070001 邮箱：zhangyz@hazq.com 核心结论：存在阶段性反弹的契机，围绕成长类主题展开 ➢ 市场方向层面，2024Q4有望延续全年整体走势，但存在阶段性反弹的机会，契机源于政策的可能性变化。最大的变化在于美联储降息带来 的政策空间的打开，尤其是货币政策框架的新变化与新特点，以及对年中政治局会议积极要求的落实和对来年经济工作会议政策定调的预期。 ➢ 复盘2016年至今Q4行情，发现当季一般难有反转行情，当下与2023、2022和2018年环境类似，存在反弹修复的契机，成长风格相对较优。 ➢ 行业配置层面，2024Q4以阶段性或主题性机会为主，以电子、通信为代表的成长类主题有望在修复反弹的行情中取得较为理想的相对收益。 政策变化的契机 美联储降息 ...

农业银行（ [Table_StockNameRptType] 601288） 公司覆盖 三农好风凭借力，扎根县域入青云 | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------|-------|-----------| | [Table_Rank] 投资评级：买入 首次覆盖 | | | | 报告日期： 2024-09-10 | | | | [Table_BaseData] 收盘价（元） | | 4.52 | | 近 12 个月最高 / 最低（元） | | 5.01/3.43 | | 总股本（百万股） | | 349,983 | | 流通股本（百万股） | | 349,983 | | 流通股比例（ % ） | | 100.00 | | 总市值（亿元） | | 15,819 | | 流通市值（亿元） | | 15,819 | | | | | [公司价格与沪深 Table_Chart] 300 走势比较 -26% -4% 19% 41% 63% 9/23 12/23 3/24 6/24 农业银行 沪深300 [Table_Author] 分析师：郑小 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has recently secured six new skeleton projects, expected to contribute approximately 2.35 billion RMB in revenue over their lifecycle [2] - The company is entering a new growth phase, with its skeleton business continuing to break through and a more mature platform for seat production [2] - The core growth for the company in 2024 is anticipated to come from the increasing certainty in its seat business, transitioning from seat skeletons to complete seats [2] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 170 million, 250 million, and 340 million RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with growth rates of +90%, +44%, and +37% [2] Financial Summary - The company reported a revenue of 1.519 billion RMB in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 35.4%, and projected revenues of 2.628 billion RMB in 2024 (+73.1%), 3.492 billion RMB in 2025 (+32.9%), and 4.036 billion RMB in 2026 (+15.6%) [3][8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 91 million RMB in 2023, 173 million RMB in 2024, 249 million RMB in 2025, and 341 million RMB in 2026 [3][8] - The gross margin is expected to be 16.1% in 2023, 15.5% in 2024, 16.0% in 2025, and 17.0% in 2026 [3][8] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to increase from 7.6% in 2023 to 17.9% in 2026 [3][8] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 50.92 in 2023 to 9.02 in 2026, indicating improved valuation over time [3][8]