千禾味业（ [Table_StockNameRptType] 603027） 公司点评 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------|--------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) as of August 31, 2024 [1] Core Views - The company reported a strong performance in its online business, with significant growth potential. The Q2 revenue was 614 million yuan, down 6.8% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 71 million yuan, down 10.9% year-on-year. The first half of the year showed a revenue increase of 2.95% to 1.468 billion yuan and a net profit increase of 18.79% to 247 million yuan [1] - The report highlights that the hot pot seasoning and Chinese compound seasoning revenues for Q2 were 198 million yuan and 392 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -23% and +5%. The performance of hot pot seasoning was affected by seasonal factors, while the growth in Chinese compound seasoning was driven by the consolidation of Shicui [1] - The company is focusing on enhancing its online channels, which saw a revenue decline of 15% year-on-year, while offline channels grew by 57% [1] Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.468 billion yuan, with a net profit of 247 million yuan, reflecting an 18.79% increase year-on-year [1] - The gross profit margin for Q2 increased by 2.2 percentage points to 33.33%, driven by lower raw material costs [1] - The report projects that the company will achieve revenues of 3.149 billion yuan, 3.447 billion yuan, 3.863 billion yuan, and 4.296 billion yuan for the years 2024E to 2026E, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.5%, 12.1%, and 11.2% respectively [3][4] Profitability and Valuation Metrics - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 457 million yuan, 532 million yuan, 600 million yuan, and 677 million yuan for 2024E to 2026E, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 16.5%, 12.8%, and 12.8% [3][4] - The report indicates an expected increase in the gross margin from 37.9% in 2023A to 39.5% in 2026E [6] - The P/E ratios for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E are projected to be 30.56, 20.36, and 18.05 respectively [3][4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company is expected to see a sequential improvement in H2 2024, focusing on long-term growth [2][9] - The company reported a revenue of 59.696 billion (down 9.53%) and a net profit of 7.531 billion (up 19.44%) for H1 2024 [6][9] - The Q2 revenue was 27.233 billion (down 16.60%), with a net profit of 1.608 billion (down 40.21%) [6] Revenue Summary - Q2 revenue breakdown: liquid milk 16.626 billion (down 19.61%), milk powder 7.081 billion (up 16.49%), and cold drinks 2.989 billion (down 44.27%) [7] - The company actively adjusted its market share in Q2 to address challenges, leading to weaker performance in liquid milk [7] Profitability Summary - Q2 gross margin increased by 1.1 percentage points to 33.58%, driven by lower raw milk costs [8] - The net profit margin for Q2 was 5.94%, down 2.32 percentage points year-on-year, impacted by credit impairment losses of 440 million [8] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation, anticipating improved performance in H2 2024 as inventory levels stabilize and cost efficiencies are realized [9] - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at 1218.95 billion, 1277.32 billion, and 1331.9 billion respectively, with corresponding net profits of 114.79 billion, 109.77 billion, and 118.16 billion [9][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company reported its 2024 half-year results, with Q2 revenue of 6.462 billion (up 7.98%) and net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.534 billion (up 11.12%), slightly exceeding expectations [2] - The revenue for H1 was 14.156 billion (up 9.18%), with net profit attributable to shareholders at 3.453 billion (up 11.52%) [2] - The employee stock ownership plan boosts confidence, and ongoing reforms are yielding results, with a diversified product line and enhanced channel strategies expected to drive future growth [5] Revenue Summary - Q2 revenue breakdown: soy sauce 3.179 billion (up 3%), seasoning sauce 0.651 billion (up 11%), oyster sauce 1.041 billion (up 1%), and other products 1.080 billion (up 23%) [3] - Online channel contribution reached 5.29%, an increase of 1.21 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved channel diversification [3] Profitability Summary - Q2 gross margin was 36.33%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points year-on-year, aided by a decline in raw material prices [4] - Q2 net profit margin attributable to shareholders was 22.67%, up 0.46 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting effective cost management despite increased sales expenses [4] Earnings Forecast - Projected revenues for 2024-2026 are 27.085 billion, 29.862 billion, and 32.937 billion, respectively, with a consistent growth rate of 10.3% [5] - Expected net profits for the same period are 6.227 billion, 6.874 billion, and 7.704 billion, with growth rates of 10.7%, 10.4%, and 12.1% respectively [5] - Corresponding P/E ratios are forecasted at 30, 28, and 25 times for 2024, 2025, and 2026 [5]

| --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------|---------------|-------| | | | | | [Table_Rank] 投资评级：买入（维持） | | | | 报告日期： 2024-08-29 | | | | [Table_BaseData] 收盘价（元） | 219.98 | | | 近 12 个月最高 / 最低（元） | 469.99/193.00 | | | 总股本（百万股） | 184 | | | 流通股本（百万股） | 184 | | | 流通股比例（ % ） | 100.00 | | | 总市值（亿元） | 406 | | | 流通市值（亿元） | 406 | | | | | | [公司价格与沪深 Table_Chart] 300 走势比较 -26% 3% 33% 62% 91% 8/23 11/23 2/24 5/24 石头科技 沪深300 [Table_Author] 分析师：邓欣 执业证书号：S0010524010001 邮箱：dengxin@hazq.com 联系人：成浅之 执业证书号：S00 ...

| --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------|---------------|-------| | | | | | [Table_Rank] 投资评级：买入（维持） | | | | 报告日期： 2024-08-29 | | | | [Table_BaseData] 收盘价（元） | 219.98 | | | 近 12 个月最高 / 最低（元） | 469.99/193.00 | | | 总股本（百万股） | 184 | | | 流通股本（百万股） | 184 | | | 流通股比例（ % ） | 100.00 | | | 总市值（亿元） | 406 | | | 流通市值（亿元） | 406 | | | | | | [公司价格与沪深 Table_Chart] 300 走势比较 -26% 3% 33% 62% 91% 8/23 11/23 2/24 5/24 石头科技 沪深300 [Table_Author] 分析师：邓欣 执业证书号：S0010524010001 邮箱：dengxin@hazq.com 联系人：成浅之 执业证书号：S00 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported its 2024H1 performance, with Q2 revenue of 7.716 billion yuan (+10.51%) and net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.454 billion yuan (+2.24%) [4] - For H1 2024, total revenue reached 16.905 billion yuan (+15.84%) and net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.028 billion yuan (+13.22%), which was below market consensus expectations [4] - The company is focusing on channel health and maintaining stable pricing during the industry adjustment cycle, with mid-tier products becoming a key growth driver [7] Revenue Summary - The company's liquor business revenue grew by 16.04% year-on-year in H1 2024, with mid-to-high-end and other liquor revenues increasing by 17.12% and 6.86% respectively [5] - Mid-to-high-end liquor sales volume increased by 25.71%, while the price per ton decreased by 6.84%, indicating a shift towards mid-tier products [5] - The company’s revenue and contract liabilities increased by 18.72% year-on-year in H1 2024, aligning with revenue growth [5] Profitability Summary - The gross profit margin for Q2 2024 rose by 0.18 percentage points to 88.81%, although the net profit margin decreased by 3.75 percentage points to 44.94% due to increased tax rates and promotional expenses [6] - The company’s operating expenses remained stable, with sales, management, and tax rates showing slight variations [6] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a "Buy" rating, with adjusted revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 at 34.873 billion, 39.614 billion, and 45.408 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 15.3%, 13.6%, and 14.6% [8] - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period is 15.297 billion, 17.637 billion, and 20.390 billion yuan, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 15.5%, 15.3%, and 15.6% [8]

猪价逐步止跌企稳，产能恢复明显偏慢 [Table_IndRank] 行业评级：增持 报告日期： 2024-08-31 [Table_Chart] 行业指数与沪深 300 走势比较 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 23-0823-0923-1023-1123-1224-0124-0224-0324-0424-0524-0624-07 农林牧渔(申万) 沪深300 [Table_Author] 分析师：王莺 执业证书号：S0010520070003 邮箱：wangying@hazq.com 联系人：刘京松 执业证书号：S0010122090006 邮箱：liujs@hazq.com [Table_Report] 相关报告 1. 华安农业周报：生猪价格短期继 续调整，亚宠展国产品牌表现亮眼 2024-8-24 2. 华安农业周报：本周生猪价格小 幅回调，USDA 大豆库消比大增 2024-8-17 主要观点： _S猪价逐步止跌企稳，产能恢复明显偏慢 ①本周生猪价格环比下降 1%，出栏均重增至 126.73 公斤。本周六， 全国生猪价格 19.77 元/公斤，周环比下降 1%，猪价下跌态势企稳；涌 益咨询 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company reported its 2024 half-year results, with Q2 revenue of 6.462 billion (up 7.98%) and net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.534 billion (up 11.12%) [2] - The performance slightly exceeded expectations, with H1 revenue of 14.156 billion (up 9.18%) and net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.453 billion (up 11.52%) [2] - The employee stock ownership plan boosts confidence, and ongoing reforms are yielding results, with a diversified product line and enhanced channel strategies expected to drive future growth [5] Revenue Summary - Q2 revenue from soy sauce, seasoning sauce, oyster sauce, and others was 3.179 billion, 0.651 billion, 1.041 billion, and 1.080 billion respectively, with year-on-year increases of 3%, 11%, 1%, and 23% [3] - Online channel contribution reached 5.29%, up 1.21 percentage points year-on-year, indicating enhanced channel diversification [3] Profitability Summary - Q2 gross margin was 36.33%, up 1.6 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from a decline in bulk raw material prices [4] - Q2 net profit margin attributable to shareholders was 22.67%, up 0.46 percentage points year-on-year, with increased sales expenses offsetting cost advantages [4] Earnings Forecast - Projected revenues for 2024-2026 are 27.085 billion, 29.862 billion, and 32.937 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth of 10.3% for each year [5] - Projected net profits for the same period are 6.227 billion, 6.874 billion, and 7.704 billion, with year-on-year growth of 10.7%, 10.4%, and 12.1% respectively [5] - Corresponding P/E ratios are expected to be 30, 28, and 25 [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's pig farming business has shown significant improvement, while its seed business continues to expand [1] - In H1 2024, the company reported a revenue of 131.0 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 16.4%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of -1.56 billion yuan, indicating a reduction in losses [1] - The feed business is under short-term pressure, but seed sales have grown rapidly, with seed product revenue reaching 300 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.5% [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 63.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.0%, and a net profit of 0.54 billion yuan, turning from loss to profit [1] - The feed segment's revenue was 92.26 billion yuan, down 20.5% year-on-year, primarily due to falling feed prices and a decrease in the number of breeding sows [1] - The gross margin for feed products improved by 0.56 percentage points to 12.7%, despite a decline in sales volume [1] Pig Farming Business - The pig farming segment reported a revenue of 26.54 billion yuan in H1 2024, a year-on-year decline of 3.5% [1] - The company’s pig output reached 284.82 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, with a total pig inventory of 360.08 million heads, up 10.4% year-on-year [1] - The cost of raising fattening pigs has been optimized, with the total cost dropping to approximately 14.6 yuan per kilogram [1] Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 356.23 billion yuan, 399.71 billion yuan, and 438.94 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.7%, 12.2%, and 9.8% [1] - Corresponding net profits are projected to be 1.77 billion yuan, 7.84 billion yuan, and 10.24 billion yuan for the same years [1]