\ \\\\\\\\\\ 2024 年 6 月 11 日 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 行业研究 中国医药 业绩复苏将带来估值修复 年初至今，MSCI中国医疗指数下跌22.8%，大幅跑输MSCI中国指数31.5%。目 中国 医药 行业 前行业指数的动态市盈率为26.0倍，低于12年历史均值。我们预计医疗设备以旧 换新的政策即将落地，政策力度大、范围广、持续周期长，将有效刺激医疗设备的 武 煜, CFA 需求释放。我们期待全国性创新药、创新器械的支持政策出台。我们认为，随着支 (852) 3900 0842 jillwu@cmbi.com.hk 持政策落地、行业监管常态化进行，业绩复苏将带来行业估值修复。 王云逸  医疗设备更新落地箭在弦上，期待医院招标复苏。媒体报道，国家发改委、国 (852) 3916 1729 家卫健委、国家中医药管理局和国家疾控局联合印发《关于推动医疗卫生领域 cathywang@cmbi.com.hk 设备更新实施方案》。方案提出到 2027 年，医疗卫生领域设备投资规模较 2023 年增长 25%以上，主要大型医疗设备百万人口拥有量基本达到中高收入 国家平均水平。方案明确所需 ...

招银国际环球市场 | 策略报告 | 市场策略 | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------| | | | | | 叶丙南 , Ph.D | | 宏观：中国经济放缓，政策将延续宽松，未来住房市场进入价跌量升和供求 再平衡阶段，上游价格大涨和服务价格小涨将逐步改善通缩和企业盈利。美 | 刘泽晖 | | 国经济温和放缓，劳工供求更趋平衡或带动服务通胀降温，美债收益率和美 | 伍力恒 | | 元指数小幅回落，美联储可能在 9 月降息，年内降息幅度约 50 个基点。 科技：乐观，继续看好 AI 算力 / 端侧成长、手机 /PC 需求复苏以及产业链业 | 李汉卿 | | 绩持续改善，近期全球产业链业绩显示去库存已至尾声，终端品牌（戴尔 / 惠普 / 联想）和代工厂商（ SMCI/ 鸿海 / 广达） ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 157.8, an increase from the previous target price of HKD 155.2 [1][25]. Core Insights - The first quarter performance indicates a strong outlook for annual profit growth, with revenue reaching RMB 73.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25% [1]. - Adjusted net profit for the first quarter was RMB 7.5 billion, exceeding expectations due to better-than-expected performance in the core local commerce (CLC) business [1]. - The report expresses optimism regarding the growth prospects of the company, driven by improved unit economics in on-demand delivery and increased monetization of advertising [1][4]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024E is projected at RMB 332.7 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 20.2% [4]. - Operating profit (OP) is expected to be RMB 32.3 billion, reflecting a significant increase from previous estimates [4]. - Non-IFRS net profit is forecasted to reach RMB 38.5 billion, indicating a growth of 11.1% compared to prior estimates [4]. Segment Performance - The CLC segment reported revenue of RMB 54.6 billion in the first quarter, a year-on-year increase of 27% [1]. - The segment's operating profit margin (OPM) improved, driven by growth in on-demand delivery transaction volume and enhanced advertising monetization [1][4]. - The report anticipates that the CLC segment will continue to show robust growth, with revenue expected to reach RMB 125 billion in the second quarter, a year-on-year increase of 17% [1]. Valuation Metrics - The report uses a discounted cash flow (DCF) model to derive a target price of HKD 157.8, based on a weighted average cost of capital of 11.0% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5% [25]. - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2024E is 22.8, indicating a favorable valuation compared to industry peers [25]. Profitability and Growth - The company is expected to achieve a net profit margin of 11.6% in 2024E, with adjusted net profit projected to grow by 65.6% year-on-year [6][23]. - Revenue growth is forecasted to slow down gradually, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20.2% from 2023 to 2024, tapering to 12.9% by 2026 [6][23].

招商银行全资附属机构 2024年6月7日，江西一脉阳光集团股份有限公司（以下简称"一脉阳光"或"公司"，股票代号： 2522.HK）成功于香港联交所挂牌上市。招银国际担任一脉阳光香港首次公开发行的整体协调人、联席 全球协调人、资本市场中介人、联席账簿管理人及联席牵头经办人，助力一脉阳光成功发行上市。 一脉阳光是中国一家领先的医学影像专科医疗集团。公司主要通过以下三类医学影像服务及解决方案 产生收入：（i）影像中心服务，透过旗舰型影像中心为患者及其他医疗保健消费者提供影像检查及诊 断服务，并根据所提供的服务内容向医疗机构收取服务费；（ii）影像解决方案服务，主要帮助医院 等医疗机构客户选择及采购满足他们发展需要的合适影像设备，以及提供一系列配套模块化解决方 案，将影像设备的使用价值最大化；（iii）一脉云服务。 注：图片版权归发行人持有 资料来源：招股书及公司公告 招银国际融资有限公司（以下简称"招银国际融资"）是招银国际金融有限公司在香港注册成立的全资附属公 司。招银国际融资恪守"以客户为中心，为客户创造价值"的经营理念，致力于向客户提供全方位、专业化的 创新和定制企业融资综合性金融服务，包括首次公开发售（I ...

Group 1: Meituan Performance - Meituan reported Q1 2024 revenue of RMB 73.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25%, exceeding expectations by 4% and 6% compared to CMBI and Bloomberg consensus[4] - Adjusted net profit reached RMB 7.5 billion, outperforming CMBI's forecast of RMB 5.5 billion and market consensus of RMB 5.8 billion, driven by better-than-expected growth in on-demand delivery orders[4] - The target price for Meituan has been raised by 2% to HKD 157.80, corresponding to a 22.8x 2024E non-IFRS PE ratio, maintaining a buy rating[4] Group 2: NIO Performance - NIO's average selling price in Q1 2024 decreased by RMB 12,000 to RMB 330,000, 2% lower than expectations[4] - The guidance for Q2 implies a further decline in average selling price by RMB 23,000[4] - NIO reported a net loss of RMB 5.3 billion in Q1, aligning with expectations, while net cash decreased by RMB 10.2 billion, marking a historical high decline[4] Group 3: Market Flow - Southbound trading via Stock Connect saw net inflows of RMB 36 billion and RMB 24.8 billion for Shanghai and Shenzhen respectively, while northbound trading experienced net outflows of RMB 9.28 billion and RMB 31.1 billion[5]

7 Jun 2024 Meituan (3690 HK) 7 Jun 2024 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|-----------|----------| | (RMB mn) | 1Q23 | 2Q23 | 3Q23 | 4Q23 | 1Q24 | Consensus | Diff (%) | | Revenue | 58,617 | 67,965 | 76,467 | 73,696 | 73,276 | 68,996 | 6.2% | | YoY | 26.7% | 33.4% | 22.1% | 22.6% | 25.0% | | | | By segment | | | | | | | | | CLC | 42,885 | 51,200 | 57,691 | 55,131 | 54,626 | 50,743 | 7.7% | | YoY | 25.5% | 39.2% | 24.5% ...

M N 7 Jun 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update NIO Inc. (NIO US) Still no sign of turning profitable Target Price US$5.60 Maintain HOLD. Both NIO’s ASP and vehicle GPM missed in 1Q24, while R&D (Previous TP US$6.20) expenses and GPM for other income beat. Although its planned launch time for Up/Downside 6.3% its third brand is earlier than we had expected, we believe management’s GPM Current Price US$5.27 guidance and assumptions for breakeven could be too optimistic. Chi ...

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for ImmuneOnco, indicating it is currently "NOT RATED" [5]. Core Insights - ImmuneOnco is a clinical-stage biotech company focusing on innate immune systems with a differentiated CD47-based portfolio and a rich pipeline of 8 drug candidates in clinical studies [2]. - The key product asset, Timdarpacept (IMM01), has shown promising results in Phase 2 studies and has moved to Phase 3 studies for various indications [2]. - The company has received approvals to conduct Phase 3 clinical trials for IMM01 in high-risk myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) and classical Hodgkin lymphoma (cHL) [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue for FY21 was RMB 5 million, FY22 was RMB 1 million, and FY23 was RMB 0 million [3]. - R&D expenses increased from RMB 176 million in FY21 to RMB 292 million in FY23 [3]. - The net loss for FY23 was RMB 379 million, with a year-end cash balance of RMB 609 million [3]. Clinical Trial Results - In the Phase 2 trial of IMM01 combined with azacitidine for high-risk MDS, the overall response rate (ORR) was 64.7%, with a complete response (CR) rate of 33.3% among 51 evaluable patients [2]. - For patients who received initial treatment for 4 months or more, the ORR increased to 85.3%, with a CR rate of 50.0% [2]. - In the Phase 2 trial of IMM01 combined with tislelizumab for anti-PD-1 failed cHL, the ORR was 66.7%, with a CR rate of 24.2% among 33 evaluable patients [2]. Market Data - The market capitalization of ImmuneOnco is HK$ 5,403 million [4]. - The stock has shown a 1-month absolute performance of 4.3% and a 6-month performance decline of 52.2% [5].

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for ImmuneOnco [1] Core Insights - ImmuneOnco is a clinical-stage biotechnology company focused on the innate immune system, with a differentiated product portfolio based on CD47, demonstrating good safety and efficacy [2] - The company has a robust pipeline with eight drug candidates in clinical research, including its lead asset Timdarpacept (IMM01), which has advanced to Phase 3 studies [2] - Recent promising results from the ASCO conference highlighted the efficacy of IMM01 in combination with azacitidine for high-risk myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) and with tislelizumab for classical Hodgkin lymphoma (cHL) [2] Summary by Sections Company Overview - ImmuneOnco specializes in developing therapies targeting the innate immune system, particularly through CD47-based products [2] Clinical Trials and Results - IMM01 combined with azacitidine showed an overall response rate (ORR) of 64.7% in 51 evaluable MDS patients, with a complete response (CR) rate of 33.3% [2] - In patients receiving initial treatment for at least 4 months, the ORR increased to 85.3%, and for those treated for at least 6 months, it reached 89.7% [2] - The combination of IMM01 and tislelizumab in cHL patients demonstrated an ORR of 66.7% and a CR rate of 24.2% [2] Future Prospects - The promising efficacy and safety profile observed in Phase 2 trials support the initiation of Phase 3 studies for IMM01 [2] - The company has received approval from the CDE to conduct Phase 3 clinical trials for IMM01 in high-risk MDS, PD-1 failed cHL, and in combination with azacitidine for chronic myelomonocytic leukemia (CMML) [2] - A Biologics License Application (BLA) for IMM01 is expected to be submitted in 2026, potentially making it the first CD47-targeted therapy in China [2] Financial Overview - The company reported revenues of 5 million RMB in FY21, which decreased to 1 million RMB in FY22 and 0 in FY23 [3] - Research and development expenses increased from 176 million RMB in FY21 to 292 million RMB in FY23 [3] - The year-end cash balance decreased from 676 million RMB in FY21 to 609 million RMB in FY23 [3]

Investment Rating - Maintain HOLD rating with a target price reduction from US$6.20 to US$5.60, based on 1.3x revised FY24E revenue estimates [2][3][6]. Core Insights - NIO's average selling price (ASP) in 1Q24 decreased by RMB12,000 QoQ, falling 2% below prior projections, with further guidance indicating a drop of about RMB23,000 in 2Q24 [3][4]. - Vehicle gross profit margin (GPM) in 1Q24 was approximately 1 percentage point lower than forecasted, while GPM for other income exceeded expectations, resulting in an overall in-line GPM for the quarter [3][4]. - The company reported a net loss of RMB5.3 billion in 1Q24, with net cash decreasing by RMB10 billion QoQ, which was worse than previous projections [3][4]. - Management's breakeven assumptions for NIO and Onvo brands, as well as battery swap operations, are viewed as overly optimistic, particularly in the context of a price war [3][4]. - Projected FY24E sales volume is expected to rise 25% YoY to 0.2 million units, with a revised revenue forecast cut by 5% due to faster-than-expected ASP declines [3][4]. - The forecast for FY24E net loss has been adjusted from RMB17.2 billion to RMB17.8 billion, with expectations of net losses exceeding RMB10 billion in FY25E and FY26E [3][4]. Financial Summary - FY24E revenue is projected at RMB62.04 billion, with a gross profit of RMB4.648 billion and a net loss of RMB17.785 billion [4][11]. - Gross margin is expected to be 7.5% in FY24E, improving to 10.1% by FY26E [4][11]. - Operating profit is forecasted to be a loss of RMB19.268 billion in FY24E, narrowing to a loss of RMB14.376 billion by FY26E [4][11]. Earnings Summary - Revenue growth is projected at 11.5% YoY for FY24E, with further growth of 28.7% and 20.1% expected in FY25E and FY26E respectively [4][11]. - The company has seen a significant decline in gross margin from 10.4% in FY22A to an expected 7.5% in FY24E [4][11]. - Adjusted net profit is projected to improve from a loss of RMB18.475 billion in FY23A to a loss of RMB15.475 billion in FY24E [4][11].