Economic Overview - In February, U.S. retail sales showed a slight rebound with a month-on-month growth of 0.2%, but this was below market expectations of 0.6%[4] - January's retail growth was revised down from -0.9% to -1.2%[4] - The largest category, automotive and parts sales, fell by 0.4% in February after a significant drop of 3.7% in January[4] Consumer Spending Trends - Durable goods and food service sectors continued to show weakness, with food service sales experiencing the largest decline since 2023 at -1.5%[4] - E-commerce rebounded from -2.4% in January to 2.4% in February, although it remains below the average growth rate from the previous year[4] - Personal care retail sales increased from negative growth to 1.7%, while sports and apparel categories declined by 0.4% and 0.6%, respectively[4] Economic Risks and Federal Reserve Outlook - The uncertainty from Trump's tariffs, immigration policies, and government spending cuts is expected to reduce overall demand and suppress business investment and durable goods consumption, leading to economic downturn risks[4] - Inflation uncertainty is rising, with long-term inflation expectations reaching 3.9%, the highest since 1993[4] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates in the upcoming meeting, with guidance suggesting two potential rate cuts later in the year[4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for XtalPi, indicating an expected return exceeding 15% over the next 12 months [21]. Core Insights - XtalPi is positioned as an AI-driven innovative R&D platform with stable revenue growth, focusing on drug discovery solutions and intelligent automation services [1][2]. - The company has established strategic partnerships with leading pharmaceutical companies, enhancing its capabilities in drug discovery and automation [1]. - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 174 million in FY23 to RMB 251 million in FY24 (44% YoY) and further to RMB 434 million in FY25 (73% YoY) [1][4]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Growth - XtalPi's revenue is forecasted to increase significantly, with FY24E revenue at RMB 251 million and FY25E at RMB 434 million, reflecting growth rates of 44% and 73% respectively [4][16]. - The company has a diverse revenue stream from both drug discovery and intelligent automation, which are on stable growth trajectories [3]. Financial Position - XtalPi completed two financing arrangements in 2025, raising HKD 3.2 billion to strengthen its cash reserves and support future growth plans [3]. - The financial summary indicates a net loss reduction from RMB 1,906 million in FY23 to RMB 1,491 million in FY24E, and further to RMB 310 million in FY25E [4][16]. Partnerships and Collaborations - The company has a broad network of partnerships across various industries, including collaborations with GCL Group for new energy materials and with Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine for traditional medicine R&D [2]. - XtalPi's partnerships with major firms like Microsoft China and JW Pharmaceuticals highlight its potential in biomedicine and new materials innovation [2]. Valuation - The target price for XtalPi is set at HKD 7.57 based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) model, with a weighted average cost of capital of 9.64% and a terminal growth rate of 3.0% [3][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for XtalPi, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [20]. Core Insights - XtalPi is leveraging its AI-driven innovative R&D platform to achieve stable revenue growth across its two core businesses: drug discovery solutions and intelligent automation solutions. The company has established strategic collaborations with leading pharmaceutical firms, enhancing its market position [9]. - Revenue is projected to grow significantly, from RMB 174 million in FY23 to RMB 251 million in FY24 (+44% YoY), and further to RMB 434 million in FY25 (+73% YoY) [2][9]. - The company has strengthened its financial position by completing two fundraising placements in 2025, raising HK$3.2 billion to enhance cash reserves and fund future growth initiatives [9]. Financial Summary - Revenue growth from FY22 to FY26 is expected to be substantial, with a forecast of RMB 841 million by FY26, reflecting a growth rate of 93.8% YoY [2][15]. - Adjusted net profit is projected to improve from a loss of RMB 1,491 million in FY24 to a loss of RMB 86 million by FY26 [2][12]. - The company’s operating profit is expected to improve significantly, moving from a loss of RMB 640 million in FY24 to a loss of RMB 158 million by FY26 [12][15]. Share Performance - The current price of XtalPi is HK$ 6.68, with a target price set at HK$ 7.57, indicating an upside potential of 13.3% [4]. - The market capitalization of XtalPi is approximately HK$ 26.85 billion [4]. Shareholding Structure - Major shareholders include Tencent Holdings with 10.9% and QuantumPharm ROC with 7.4% [5]. Partnerships and Collaborations - XtalPi has formed diverse partnerships across various industries, including collaborations with GCL Group for new energy materials and with Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine for TCM drug R&D [9]. - The company is also working with Microsoft China on biomedicine innovations and has a joint venture with Indonesia's Sinar Mas Group to promote AI applications across different sectors [9]. Valuation - The target price of HK$ 7.57 is derived from a DCF model, with a WACC of 9.64% and a terminal growth rate of 3.0% [10].

招银国际环球市场有限公司 焦点股份 2025年3月18日 招银国际焦点股份 | 招银国际焦点股份 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 市盈率(倍) | 市 | 值 | 平均日交易量 | 股 | 价 | 目标价 | 上/下 | 行 | 市净率(倍) | 股息率 | ROE (%) | 公司名称 | 股票代码 | 行 | 业 | 评 | 级 | (十亿美元) | (百万美元) | （当地货币) | （当地货币) | 空 | 间 | FY23A | FY24E | FY23A | FY23A | FY23A | 分析师 | | 长 | 仓 | 买入 | 史迹/ 窦文静 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for China Tower Corporation with a target price raised to HKD 13.7, reflecting an increase in valuation from 3.1x to 4.0x based on the 2025 fiscal year EV/EBITDA [1][7][3]. Core Views - China Tower's fiscal year 2024 performance met expectations, with revenue increasing by 4.0% year-on-year to RMB 97.8 billion, and net profit rising by 10.0% to RMB 10.7 billion, slightly above internal forecasts but below Bloomberg consensus [1][2]. - The traditional tower business, accounting for 77% of revenue, saw a modest growth of 0.9%, while the indoor distribution and two wings businesses experienced double-digit growth, achieving RMB 84 billion (up 18%) and RMB 134 billion (up 16%) respectively [1][2]. - The company announced a share consolidation to optimize its capital structure and enhance shareholder value [1]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY25E are set at RMB 101.8 billion, with a growth rate of 4.1% [2][10]. - EBITDA is expected to reach RMB 69.1 billion in FY25E, reflecting a 3.7% increase [2][10]. - Net profit is forecasted to grow by 13.0% to RMB 12.1 billion in FY25E, with earnings per share projected at RMB 0.69 [2][10]. - The company plans to maintain a dividend of RMB 0.42 per share for FY24, indicating a payout ratio of 76% [7][1]. Shareholder Structure - Major shareholders include Citigroup with 9.0% and GIC with 7.0% [4]. Stock Performance - The current stock price is HKD 12.24, with a potential upside of 11.9% to the target price [3]. - The stock has shown a 26.2% absolute return over the past six months [5]. Business Segments - The traditional tower business is expected to face continued pressure due to low single-digit growth forecasts for domestic telecom operators, while the indoor distribution and two wings businesses are anticipated to maintain double-digit growth rates [7][1]. - The indoor distribution business is projected to grow by 14.0% and 11.6% in FY25E and FY26E respectively, driven by market opportunities [7]. - The two wings business, particularly the Tower Intelligence segment, is expected to see significant revenue growth due to projects related to national disaster warning and agricultural protection [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for China Tower Corporation with a target price raised to HKD 13.7, reflecting an increase in valuation from 3.1x to 4.0x based on the 2025 fiscal year EV/EBITDA [1][7][3]. Core Views - China Tower's fiscal year 2024 performance met expectations, with revenue increasing by 4.0% year-on-year to RMB 97.8 billion and net profit rising by 10.0% to RMB 10.7 billion, slightly above internal forecasts but below Bloomberg consensus [1][2]. - The traditional tower business, accounting for 77% of revenue, saw a modest growth of 0.9%, while the indoor distribution and two wings businesses experienced double-digit growth, achieving RMB 84 billion (up 18%) and RMB 134 billion (up 16%) respectively [1][2]. - The company announced a stock consolidation plan to optimize its capital structure and enhance shareholder value [1]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY25E are set at RMB 101.8 billion, with a growth rate of 4.1%, followed by RMB 104.4 billion in FY26E and RMB 108.4 billion in FY27E [2][10]. - EBITDA is expected to reach RMB 69.1 billion in FY25E, with a net profit forecast of RMB 12.1 billion, reflecting a 13.0% year-on-year growth [2][10]. - The company plans to maintain a dividend of RMB 0.42 per share for FY24, indicating a payout ratio of 76% [7][10]. Shareholder Structure - Major shareholders include Citigroup with 9.0% and GIC with 7.0% [4]. Stock Performance - The stock has shown a 13.3% increase over the past three months, although it has underperformed relative to the market by 7.5% [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for AIA Group Ltd. with a target price adjusted to HKD 89.00 from the previous HKD 94.00, indicating a potential upside of 43.1% from the current price of HKD 62.20 [3][8][11]. Core Insights - The new business value (NBV) growth remains resilient across various markets, with year-on-year increases of +23% in Hong Kong, +20% in Mainland China, +15% in Thailand, +15% in Singapore, +10% in Malaysia, and +18% in other markets, contributing to an overall expected NBV growth of 14% for 2025 [2][8]. - AIA has announced a new share buyback plan of USD 1.6 billion, which is expected to enhance shareholder returns to approximately 6% [7][8]. - The company's operating profit after tax (OPAT) is projected to grow by 7% year-on-year to USD 6.605 billion in 2024, with a slight increase in earnings per share (EPS) to USD 0.60 [8][9]. Financial Performance - The total market capitalization of AIA Group is approximately HKD 673.75 billion, with an average trading volume of HKD 2.09 billion in March [3]. - The company reported a total NBV of USD 4.712 billion, reflecting an 18% increase year-on-year, although the growth rate in the second half of 2024 is expected to slow down [7][8]. - The operating return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to be 14.8%, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous year, indicating strong financial health [8][9]. Valuation Metrics - The stock is currently trading at 1.12x FY25E P/EV, which is at the lower end of its historical valuation range, suggesting significant upside potential [8][11]. - The report highlights that the dividend per share is expected to increase by 10% to USD 1.31, with an annual dividend yield of 3.1% [7][8]. - The adjusted target price reflects a valuation based on relative and appraisal methods, with the potential for further upward adjustments as shareholder returns and value growth progress [11][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8][11][12]. Core Insights - The new business value (NBV) growth shows resilience, with a projected increase of 14% year-on-year for 2025, despite adjustments in economic assumptions due to declining long-term interest rates in mainland China [2][8]. - A new share buyback plan of US$1.6 billion is expected to enhance shareholder returns to approximately 6% [7][8]. - The company's target price is adjusted to HKD 89.00, reflecting a potential upside of 43.1% from the current share price of HKD 62.20 [3][8]. Financial Performance - The company's market capitalization is approximately HKD 673.75 billion, with an average trading volume of HKD 2.09 billion in March [3]. - The NBV growth rates for various markets are as follows: Hong Kong +23%, mainland China +20%, Thailand +15%, Singapore +15%, Malaysia +10%, and other markets +18% [2]. - The operating profit after tax (OPAT) is projected to grow by 7% year-on-year to US$6.605 billion in 2024, with earnings per share (EPS) expected to reach US$0.60 [8][9]. Shareholder Returns - The total shareholder return rate is expected to reach 6% in 2025, combining dividends and share buybacks [7][8]. - The dividend per share is projected to increase by 10% year-on-year to US$1.31, with an annual dividend of US$1.75, reflecting a 9% increase [7][8]. Valuation Metrics - The company is currently trading at 1.12x FY25E P/EV, which is at the lower end of its historical valuation range [8][11]. - The adjusted target price corresponds to a FY25E P/EV of 1.60x, indicating significant upside potential [11][12].

2025 年 3 月 18 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 ` 每日投资策略 宏观、行业及公司点评 全球市场观察 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk 港股分类指数上日表现 | | 收市价 | | 升/跌（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生金融 | 39,738 | 1.40 | 33.25 | | 恒生工商业 | 14,197 | 0.45 | 53.76 | | 恒生地产 | 16,253 | 0.35 | -11.32 | | 恒生公用事业 | 35,119 | 1.53 | 6.83 | | 资料来源：彭博 | | | | 敬请参阅尾页之免责声明 请到彭博 (搜索代码: RESP CMBR )或 http://www.cmbi.com.hk 下载更多研究报告 1 周一（3 月 17 日）中国股市涨跌互现。恒指上涨，恒生科技下跌，公用事业、 金融与必选消费领涨，综合企业与医疗保健下跌。A 股地产、可选消费与能 源领涨，金融与通信服务下跌。中概股大涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数上涨 4%。 国债期货下 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for China Tower Corporation [1][3] Core Views - The company's 2024 fiscal year performance met expectations, with a revenue increase of 4.0% year-on-year, reaching RMB 97.7 billion, and a net profit growth of 10.0%, amounting to RMB 10.7 billion [1] - The report highlights the stable performance of legacy businesses, while Distributed Antenna System (DAS) and Two Wings (smart towers and energy) segments continue to show double-digit growth [2][3] - The target price has been raised to HKD 13.7, based on a 4.0x FY25E EV/EBITDA, reflecting a higher valuation due to the company's efforts to enhance shareholder returns [3] Financial Summary - Revenue for FY24 is reported at RMB 97,772 million, with a projected growth rate of 4.1% for FY25 and 2.5% for FY26 [4] - Net profit for FY24 is RMB 10,729 million, with expected growth rates of 13.0% for FY25 and 13.2% for FY26 [4] - The company announced a total dividend of RMB 0.42 per share for 2024, indicating a payout ratio of 76% [3] Business Segments - Tower business revenue, which constitutes 77% of total revenue, reached RMB 75.7 billion, growing by 0.9% year-on-year [1] - DAS revenue, accounting for 9% of total revenue, increased by 18% to RMB 8.4 billion, while the Two Wings segment, making up 14%, grew by 16% to RMB 13.4 billion [1][2] Market Outlook - The report anticipates continued growth in the DAS segment, projecting a revenue increase of 14.0% and 11.6% for FY25 and FY26, respectively [2] - The Two Wings business is expected to grow by 17.5% and 16.2% in FY25 and FY26, respectively, driven by new revenue from national disaster warning and farmland protection projects [2]