Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 26.10, indicating a potential upside of 56.1% from the current price of HKD 16.72 [4][5]. Core Insights - The company has shown resilient growth during the Dragon Boat Festival period, with hotel and transportation growth rates exceeding the market average. The management remains optimistic about the financial guidance for the entire year, expecting a positive performance in Q2 2024 and accelerated revenue growth in the second half of 2024 [2][3]. - The report suggests that the market has overreacted to concerns about profit margin dilution due to international business investments, which are expected to diminish in impact by the second half of 2024. The company's hotel Average Daily Rate (ADR) remains stable, contrasting with broader market pressures [2][3]. - The company is actively expanding its international business, aiming to increase its revenue contribution from 3%-4% to 10%-15% over the next 2-3 years, particularly in the Southeast Asian market [2][3]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from RMB 11,896 million in FY23A to RMB 17,607 million in FY24E, representing a year-on-year growth of 48.0% [3][11]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to increase from RMB 2,199.1 million in FY23A to RMB 2,606.8 million in FY24E, reflecting an 18.5% growth [3][11]. - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from RMB 0.98 in FY23A to RMB 1.16 in FY24E, indicating a significant recovery from previous declines [3][11]. Market Position and Performance - The company has seen a significant increase in market share, with domestic travel during the Dragon Boat Festival increasing by 6.3% year-on-year, and total spending rising by 8.1% [2][3]. - The hotel ADR is expected to remain stable, with a projected year-on-year hold in the first half of 2024, attributed to a higher proportion of budget hotels in the company's portfolio [2][3]. - The company’s stock has shown a relative performance decline of 8.2% over the past six months, while the overall market has seen a larger drop of 18.8% [5].

2024 年 6 月 17 日 每日投资策略 宏观 / 公司点评 中国 5 月金融数据点评 由于实际利率居高和私人部门信心疲软，信贷增长仍然较低。央行取消按揭贷款 利率全国下限后，新增抵押贷款利率显著下行，仍有进一步下降空间。央行可能 进一步下调 LPR 10-20 个基点，以减轻私人部门偿债负担。央行还可能降低存款 利率以保护银行净息差。同时，央行将继续引导银行扩大信贷投放，以支持经济 增长和缓解通缩压力。我们预计今年下半年到明年上半年信贷增速可能温和反弹。 （链接） | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------|--------|----------------| | 同程旅行（ 780 HK ，买入，目标价： 26.1 港元） - 端午韧性增长持续，憧憬 \n2H24E 利润率回升 | 港股分类指数上日表现 | 收市价 | 升 / 跌（ 单日 | | | ...

2023年全球晶圆代工行业收入为1,170亿美元（Counterpoint）。受AI芯片需求激增与电子元器件库存回补 的推动，行业在下半年显现出企稳迹象。该市场在2023年三季度和四季度的营收环比增速为6.5%和9.8%。展 望未来，我们看好晶圆代工行业的发展，行业利好因素包括：1）下游客户对AI基础设施的持续投资，2）存储 和电子产品需求的逐步复苏，3）技术进步，以及 4）各主要经济体将半导体产业链发展的首要目标从提升生产 效率转向供应链安全。 晶圆代工市场份额高度集中。根据Counterpoint，台积电在2023年四季度的市场份额为61%，三星为14%， 格罗方德为6%。中芯国际和华虹半导体分别占据第五和第六的份额（分别为5%和1%）。台积电在AI芯片制 造和产能方面有着领先优势。因来自AI市场的收入贡献相对较高，台积电预计公司2024年收入增速将高于全球 晶圆代工市场的平均增速，这使得公司有望进一步获得更多的市场份额。 地缘政治风险的加剧，驱使各主要经济体将半导体产业链发展的首要目标从提升生产效率转向供应链安全。近 日，中国成立了集成电路产业投资基金第三期，注册资本高达 3,440 亿元人民币，是迄今 ...

\ \\\\\\\\\\ 2024 年 6 月 14 日 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 行业研究 半导体 博通 2Q24业绩回顾：AI热潮和 VMware业务推动营收增长 博通（AVGO US, 未评级）于6月12日公布了强劲的2024年二季度业绩。公 中国 半导体 行业 司本季度收入和非GAAP净利润分别达到 125 亿美元和 54 亿美元，超出彭博 一致预期 4%和 2%。AI 收入仍是投资者关注的重点。公司本季度 AI收入突破 杨天薇, Ph.D 31 亿美元，同比增长280%、环比增长35%，占总销售额的25%、半导体业务 (852) 3916 3716 lilyyang@cmbi.com.hk 部门销售额的43%。非AI半导体业务在二季度持续疲软，但管理层预期该部分 收入将于下半年实现温和复苏。公司将2024 财年的收入指引上调10亿美元至 张元圣 (852) 3761 8727 510 亿美元，并将 EBITDA 利润率从此前的60%上调至 61%。虽然收入指引的 kevinzhang@cmbi.com.hk 上修主要是得益于 AI 收入增长的推动，但投资人认为管理层对 AI 收入的指引 过 ...

Investment Rating - Maintain BUY rating with a target price of US$7 9 [2][4] Core Views - Zhihu delivered better-than-feared 1Q24 results with revenue down 3 4% YoY but 4% above consensus and adjusted net loss of RMB136mn vs consensus of RMB180mn [2] - Vocational training revenue was resilient at +36% YoY in 1Q24 while membership revenue decelerated to +1% YoY [2] - The company is prioritizing higher efficiency and aims for quarterly breakeven in 4Q24E with expected short-term volatility in user metrics and revenue [2] - Revenue forecast for FY24-26E was trimmed by 6 4%-7 0% and adjusted NPM was cut by 0 9-3 9ppts [2] Financial Performance - 1Q24 revenue was RMB961mn down 3 4% YoY with gross margin at 56 6% [8] - Adjusted net loss narrowed to RMB136mn in 1Q24 with adjusted NPM at -14% vs consensus of -19% [2] - Revenue breakdown for 1Q24 shows marketing services at RMB331mn (-16% YoY) paid membership at RMB450mn (-1% YoY) and vocational training at RMB145mn (+36% YoY) [9] Revenue and Profit Forecasts - FY24E revenue is forecasted at RMB3 532mn a 15 9% YoY decline with FY25E and FY26E revenue expected to grow 8 3% and 6 9% respectively [3] - Adjusted net profit is expected to improve from a loss of RMB347 7mn in FY24E to a profit of RMB59 0mn in FY25E and RMB125 7mn in FY26E [3] - Gross margin is projected to improve from 55 0% in FY24E to 56 1% in FY26E [14] Valuation and Share Performance - DCF-based target price adjusted to US$7 9 with an upside potential of 148 7% from the current price of US$3 18 [4] - Share performance shows a 1-month decline of 18 0% and a 6-month decline of 43 5% [5] Business Segments - Marketing services revenue is expected to decline 25% YoY in 2Q24E while paid membership revenue is forecasted to decline 4% YoY [2] - Vocational training revenue is expected to decline 7% YoY in 2Q24E as the company focuses on high-quality development and shrinks low-margin subjects [2] Efficiency and Cost Management - Group gross margin is expected to improve by 2 5ppts YoY in 2Q24E driven by disciplined expenses and operational efficiency [2] - Operating expenses are forecasted to decline with a focus on cost control and higher efficiency [2]

Investment Rating - The semiconductor industry is rated as "Outperforming the Market" for the next 12 months, indicating expected performance that will exceed market benchmarks [10]. Core Insights - Broadcom reported strong Q2 2024 results with revenues and non-GAAP net profits reaching $12.5 billion and $5.4 billion, respectively, surpassing Bloomberg consensus estimates by 4% and 2% [1]. - AI revenue for Broadcom exceeded $3.1 billion in Q2 2024, showing a year-over-year growth of 280% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 35%, accounting for 25% of total sales and 43% of semiconductor segment sales [1][5]. - The company raised its fiscal 2024 revenue guidance by $1 billion to $51 billion, driven primarily by AI revenue growth, and increased its EBITDA margin forecast from 60% to 61% [1]. - The network connectivity segment saw a 44% year-over-year revenue increase, with AI revenue contributing significantly to offset declines in traditional data center and enterprise network revenues [1][8]. - Broadcom's software business, bolstered by VMware's contributions, reported a 175% year-over-year revenue growth, reaching $5.3 billion in Q2 2024 [1][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Broadcom's Q2 2024 revenue was $12.5 billion, a 43% increase year-over-year, while non-GAAP net profit was $5.4 billion, reflecting a 20% increase [7][8]. - The semiconductor solutions segment generated $7.2 billion in revenue, with a year-over-year growth of 5.6% [8]. AI Revenue Growth - AI revenue reached $3.1 billion, marking a 280% increase year-over-year and a 35% increase quarter-over-quarter [1][5]. - The company anticipates AI revenue for the full year to reach $11 billion, with expectations of further growth in subsequent quarters [1]. Business Segments - The network segment's revenue was $3.8 billion, up 46.2% year-over-year, while the wireless segment saw a decline to $1.6 billion [8]. - Infrastructure software revenue surged to $5.3 billion, driven by VMware's performance, which contributed $2.7 billion [1][8]. Market Outlook - The report maintains a positive outlook on the AI supply chain, particularly for Ethernet solution providers, with Broadcom's solutions being utilized in seven of the world's largest AI clusters [1].

2024 年 6 月 14 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 ` 行业、公司点评 行业点评 敬请参阅尾页之免责声明 请到彭博 (搜索代码: RESP CMBR )或 http://www.cmbi.com.hk 下载更多研究报告 半导体行业 - 博通 2Q24 业绩回顾：AI 热潮和 VMware 收入共同推动盈利增 长 博通（AVGO US, 未评级）于 6 月 12 日公布了强劲的 2024 年二季度业绩。 公司本季度收入和非 GAAP 净利润分别达到 125 亿美元和 54 亿美元，超出 彭博一致预期 4%和 2%。AI 领域延续了之前的火热态势，公司二季度 AI 相 关收入突破 31 亿美元，同比增长达到 280%，环比增长达到 35%。这一数字 使得 AI 销售额占比攀升至总销售额 25%，相当于公司本季度半导体解决方案 业务销售额的 43%。由于对 AI 前景充满信心，公司管理层将 2024 财年的收 入预期上调至 510 亿美元，并将 EBITDA margin 从原先的 60%上调至 61%。 同时，管理层还预计非 AI 相关收入将在下半年实现温和复苏。尽管公司对 ...

招银国际环球市场有限公司 重要披露 本报告内所提及的任何投资都可能涉及相当大的风险。报告所载数据可能不适合所有投资者。招银国际环球市场不提供任何针对个人的投资建议。本报告没有把任何人的 投资目标、财务状况和特殊需求考虑进去。而过去的表现亦不代表未来的表现，实际情况可能和报告中所载的大不相同。本报告中所提及的投资价值或回报存在不确定性 及难以保证，并可能会受目标资产表现以及其他市场因素影响。招银国际环球市场建议投资者应该独立评估投资和策略，并鼓励投资者咨询专业财务顾问以便作出投资决 定。 本报告包含的任何信息由招银国际环球市场编写，仅为本公司及其关联机构的特定客户和其他专业人士提供的参考数据。报告中的信息或所表达的意见皆不可作为或被视 为证券出售要约或证券买卖的邀请，亦不构成任何投资、法律、会计或税务方面的最终操作建议，本公司及其雇员不就报告中的内容对最终操作建议作出任何担保。我们 不对因依赖本报告所载资料采取任何行动而引致之任何直接或间接的错误、疏忽、违约、不谨慎或各类损失或损害承担任何的法律责任。任何使用本报告信息所作的投资 决定完全由投资者自己承担风险。 本报告基于我们认为可靠且已经公开的信息，我们力求但 ...

美国经济 0 2 4 6 8 10 201920202021202220232024 CPI 核心CPI CPI预测 核心CPI预测 同比(%) 2024 年 6 月 13 日 敬请参阅尾页之免责声明 请到彭博 (搜索代码: RESP CMBR )或 http:// www.cmbi.com.hk 下载更多招银国际环球市场研究报 告 资料来源：Wind，招银国际环球市场 2024 年 6 月 13 日 图 1: 主要项目对美国 CPI 同比增速的拉动 资料来源：Wind，招银国际环球市场 (2) 0 2 4 6 8 10 (2) 0 2 4 6 8 10 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 食品 能源 核心商品 核心服务(除房租) 房租 CPI同比增速 (百分点) (百分点) | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------|----------------------------------------------------|-------|---------------------- ...

2024 年 6 月 12 日 港股分类指数上日表现 收市价升/跌（%） 单日 年内 恒生金融 31,684 -1.47 6.24 恒生工商业 10,055 -0.67 8.90 恒生地产 15,891 -2.23 -13.29 恒生公用事业 34,819 -1.46 5.92 资料来源：彭博 端午节假期消费趋势观察 宏观 -经济温和复苏。得益于家电以旧换新政策和电商平台 6.18 促销活动， 端午节期间社会零售额增速可能有所回升。国内货运量和港口吞吐量延续上 升显示国内经济活动和对外出口复苏。在近期政策刺激后，端午假期期间房 屋销售出现反弹。预计中国经济将延续温和复苏态势，房地产跌幅逐步收窄， 出口延续改善，通缩压力有所缓解。 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 中国市场策略、行业点评 分行业来说，我们注意到家电表现强劲，受惠于以旧换新补贴和房地产政策 放松。服装行业的增长也令人鼓舞，归功于线下销售稳定增长和抖音平台的 高速增长。运动服饰销售稳定（强劲的线上抵消了疲软的线下），零售折扣 同比仍在改善，因此表现基本符合预期。酒店和餐饮表现差于预期，同店销 售和酒店 RevPAR 均有所下降，我们认为 ...