Global Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,434, down 1.29% for the day but up 26.79% year-to-date [1] - The S&P 500 Index in the US closed at 6,841, down 0.09% for the day and up 16.30% year-to-date [1] - The Japanese Nikkei 225 saw a slight increase of 0.14%, with a year-to-date increase of 26.97% [1] Hong Kong Stock Performance - The Hang Seng Financial Index closed at 46,622, down 0.49% for the day and up 32.69% year-to-date [2] - The Hang Seng Real Estate Index decreased by 1.56%, with a year-to-date increase of 19.58% [2] Chinese Stock Market Insights - The Chinese stock market experienced a pullback, with Hong Kong stocks declining more than A-shares, particularly in materials, energy, and real estate sectors [3] - The net buying from southbound trading was HKD 530 million, with Tencent, Xiaomi, and Alibaba seeing the most net buying [3] - The forecast for global and Chinese energy storage battery shipments is optimistic, with an expected growth rate exceeding 80% this year [3] Industry Analysis: Internet Sector - The year 2026 is projected to be crucial for capturing user attention in the AI era, focusing on lowering usage barriers and enhancing decision-making efficiency [4] - Companies with stable cash flows supporting AI investments and strong operational capabilities are expected to have higher long-term investment value [4] - Recommended stocks include Tencent, Alibaba, and Kuaishou for their AI-related growth potential [4] Consumer Sector Insights - The e-commerce sector is expected to benefit from national subsidies, with experience-based consumption (like travel and gaming) projected to grow faster than physical goods [5] - The competition in the local lifestyle sector is intensifying, but the online travel agency (OTA) sector shows resilience [5] Technology Sector Outlook - The AI industry is expected to see intensified competition and increased application monetization in 2026, with a focus on enhancing model capabilities [6][7] - Companies like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon are recommended for their potential in AI-driven revenue growth [8] Cloud Services Growth - Cloud service revenue growth is accelerating, with a significant increase in capital expenditures driven by demand [9] - AI investments are expected to enhance profit margins and create new revenue opportunities [9] AI Monetization Opportunities - The global AI spending is projected to grow by 37% to USD 2 trillion in 2026, with a focus on AI applications in various sectors [10] - Key areas for investment include AI applications in programming, creative generation, and enterprise intelligence [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The LGFV space had a firm session, with higher - yielding bonds up to 1.0pt higher across CNH and USD papers yielding c9% due to HF buying, and RMs and structured products teams continued to buy onshore AAA - guaranteed papers [3] - CMBI expects China's goods exports to decrease from 5.2% in 2025 to 3.5% in 2026, imports to rebound from - 0.5% to 2%, and the USD/RMB exchange rate to decrease from 7.07 at the end of 2025 to 7.02 at the end of 2026 [4][17][21] - DWCM launched a consent solicitation to extend the maturity of DALWAN 11 02/13/26 for two years, and analysts continue to view DWCM as a survivor of the sector and maintain a buy on DALWANs [8][10] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading Desk Comments - Yesterday, there was better - selling on quasi - sovereign KR corps FRNs and better - buying on front - end FRNs across JP/AU/CN/ME financial names. NTT 30s widened 4bps, TW lifers FUBON/NSINTW widened 2 - 4bps, DALWAN 26s rose 1.1pts, FAEACO 12.814 Perp edged 0.5pt higher, EHICAR 26 - 27 was unchanged, VNKRLE 27 - 29 recovered 1.5 - 1.6pts, LNGFOR 27 - 32/FUTLAN 28/FTNHD 26 - 27 were 0.1 - 0.4pt higher, YLLGSP was 0.1pt lower, SMCGL Perps were 0.1 - 0.7pt lower, GARUDA 31s were down by 0.5pt, VEDLN 28 - 33s were unchanged to 0.1pt lower, and GLPSPs were 0.1 - 0.3pt higher [2] - This morning, the new MINMET 4.25 Perp and MINMET 4.35 Perp were largely unchanged from RO at par, PBs were selling Asian FRNs with unchanged spreads, LNGFOR 28/QDJZWD 28/VNKRLE 29 were 0.5 - 0.7pt higher, BIMLVN 27/EHICAR 26 were 0.8 - 1.0pt lower, and there were active two - way flows on USD and AAA - guaranteed LGFV issues. DALWAN 26s were unchanged [4] Top Performers and Underperformers - Top performers included VNKRLE 3.975 11/09/27 (price 21.4, change 1.6), VNKRLE 3 1/2 11/12/29 (price 20.6, change 1.5), CFAMCI 4.95 11/07/47 (price 92.0, change 1.4), DALWAN 11 02/13/26 (price 93.7, change 1.1), and DALWAN 11 01/12/26 (price 99.0, change 1.1) [5] - Top underperformers included TOPTB 4 7/8 01/23/43 (price 88.1, change - 1.0), TOPTB 5 3/8 11/20/48 (price 93.4, change - 1.0), TOPTB 4 7/8 01/23/43 (price 88.4, change - 1.0), CHINAM Float 07/10/27 (price 100.1, change - 0.9), and PTTTB 4 1/2 10/25/42 (price 87.3, change - 0.9) [5] Macro News Recap - On Monday, S&P (- 0.35%), Dow (- 0.45%), and Nasdaq (- 0.14%) were lower, and UST yield was higher. The 2/5/10/30 - year yield was at 3.57%/3.75%/4.17%/4.81% [7] Desk Analyst Comments on DALWAN - DWCM launched a consent solicitation to extend the maturity of DALWAN 11 02/13/26 (o/s USD400mn) for two years to 13 Feb'28 with mandatory partial redemptions of 12.5% each on 30 Jan'26, 13 Aug'26, 13 Feb'27, and 13 Aug'27, and the remaining 50% at the new maturity. It also seeks to lower the minimum total equity requirement for Wanda HK to HKD300mn from HKD800mn and add a par call option. The early consent fee is 1pt, and the early consent deadline is on 19 Dec'25 [8] - If DWCM cannot secure 90% consent in principal amount, an extraordinary meeting will be held. The meeting is quorate if two or more persons holding or representing not less than 66% of the aggregate principal amount are present, and the extraordinary resolution passes if at least 50% of the votes cast are in favor [9] - DWCM intends to repay USD300mn DALWAN 11 01/12/26 from funds (estimated at RMB2.4 - 2.5bn or cUSD339 - 354mn) from the PAG - led consortium expected to be received within the next two weeks. Analysts view DWCM as a survivor and maintain a buy on DALWANs [10] China Economy - China's exports beat market expectation due to improvement in exports to the EU, Latin America, and Africa, while exports to the US and ASEAN underperformed. Exports of integrated circuits rallied, and ships and vehicles remained prosperous, but personal consumption goods were subdued. Imports improved slightly due to processing trade, while general trade dipped [16] - In November, exports rebounded to 5.9% YoY from - 1.1% in October, exports to the US contracted further, exports to the EU, Latin America, and Africa rose, and there was a broad - based rebound. Exports to ASEAN moderated. Trade surplus expanded to US$111.7bn [18] - Integrated circuits surged 34.2% in November, transport equipment remained robust, personal consumption goods and housing - related products were subdued, and rare earth exports expanded. Imports inched up to 1.9% in November, with processing trade accelerating and general trade dipping [19][20] - In 2026, China's goods exports are expected to moderate due to global demand decline and high base effects from 2025. Exports of some industries and to some destinations may remain strong [21] Offshore Asia New Issues - New issues (priced): China Minmetals Corp issued 600mn USD PerpNC3.5 at 4.25% and 600mn USD PerpNC5 at 4.35%, with a Baa2 rating [24] - New issues (pipeline): Chengdu Xingcheng Investment Group plans a 3 - year issue at 4.6% with a BBB+ rating, and Halcyon Agri Corporation plans a PerpNC3 issue at 6.4% (unrated) [25] News and Market Color - Yesterday, 83 credit bonds were issued onshore with an amount of RMB70bn, and month - to - date, 529 credit bonds were issued with a total amount of RMB501bn, a 9.3% yoy increase [26] - Moody's changed the outlook of Adani Green Energy restricted groups to stable from negative and affirmed Ba1 rating; BNP Paribas priced USD1.25bn PerpNC8 AT1 at 6.875%; Far East Consortium plans to sell a 50% stake in a Ritz Carlton hotel in Perth for AUD100mn; Korea Development Bank launched due diligence for HMM privatization; LG Energy Solution obtained a KRW2.1tn contract to supply batteries for Mercedes - Benz; NWD to defer distributions on two perpetual bonds; Fitch upgraded Oman to BBB - from BB+ and Saudi National Bank to A from A -; POSCO Holdings is considering acquiring a stake in a US - based steelmaker; SoftBank Group is in talks to participate in a funding round for Skild AI [26] - In the US, media reported Vanke, Shenzhen government, and PBOC held a meeting with bondholders of Vanke's CNY 2bn 3% onshore bond, and S&P revised the outlook of Xiaomi to positive from stable [35]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to several companies in the pharmaceutical sector, indicating a potential upside of over 15% in their stock prices over the next 12 months [2][29]. Core Insights - The release of the 2025 version of the basic medical insurance directory continues to support innovation, with 114 new drugs added, including 50 first-class innovative drugs, while 29 drugs were removed due to lack of supply or better alternatives [3]. - The MSCI China Healthcare Index has seen a cumulative increase of 60.9% since the beginning of 2025, outperforming the MSCI China Index by 29.2% [1]. - Despite a recent 9% pullback in the healthcare sector, undervalued stocks present attractive investment opportunities [1][3]. - The trend of innovative drugs going overseas is expected to continue, with a focus on the progress of these products in international markets [1]. - The demand for innovative drug research and development in China is showing signs of recovery, supported by a resurgence in capital market financing and an increase in the scale of overseas transactions [1]. Summary by Sections Industry Research - The report highlights that the adjustment of the medical insurance directory emphasizes support for "true innovation" and "differentiated innovation" [3]. - The first version of the commercial insurance directory includes 19 innovative drugs, which may pave the way for the expansion of commercial medical insurance in China [3]. - The report recommends a more cautious investment approach, focusing on undervalued stocks in the sector [3]. Company Ratings - Recommended companies include: - 三生制药 (Sangfor) with a target price of 37.58 and a potential upside of 29% [2]. - 固生堂 (Gushengtang) with a target price of 44.95 and a potential upside of 58% [2]. - 药明合联 (WuXi AppTec) with a target price of 74.00 and a potential upside of 10% [2]. - 巨子生物 (Giant Biotech) with a target price of 53.89 and a potential upside of 48% [2]. - 信达生物 (Innovent Biologics) with a target price of 110.62 and a potential upside of 29% [2]. - 中国生物制药 (China National Pharmaceutical Group) with a target price of 9.40 and a potential upside of 39% [2].

Macro Economic Overview - China's exports showed a short-term rebound in November, exceeding market expectations, driven by improvements in exports to the EU, Latin America, Japan, South Korea, and Africa, while exports to the US and ASEAN remained weak [2] - The semiconductor exports benefited from the global AI boom, maintaining a high growth rate, reflecting China's ongoing technological advancements [2] - Imports slightly improved due to processing trade, but general trade continued to decline due to weak domestic demand [2] Global Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,765, down 1.23% for the day but up 28.44% year-to-date [3] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.54% to 3,924, with a year-to-date increase of 17.08% [3] - The US markets saw a decline, with the Dow Jones down 0.45% and the S&P 500 down 0.35% [3] Automotive Industry Insights - The Chinese automotive industry is expected to see retail and wholesale sales reach historical highs in 2025, with a more complex landscape anticipated in 2026 due to the phasing out of subsidies [6][7] - Despite challenges from subsidy reductions, retail sales are expected to remain stable, with wholesale volumes projected to grow by 2.9% in 2026 [7] - The competition in the automotive sector is expected to intensify, with new model releases at historical highs and potential price increases in battery costs impacting profit margins [7] Insurance Sector Analysis - The recent adjustment in risk factors for insurance companies aims to encourage long-term equity holdings, potentially releasing a minimum capital of 30.8 billion yuan [9][10] - The adjustment is expected to enhance the capital efficiency of insurance investments in A-shares compared to H-shares, benefiting major players like China Ping An and China Life [11] - The insurance sector maintains a "buy" rating, with recommended stocks including China Ping An, China Life, and AIA Group [12] Pharmaceutical Industry Developments - The MSCI China Healthcare Index has risen by 60.9% year-to-date, outperforming the MSCI China Index [13] - The recent release of the basic medical insurance directory supports innovation, with 114 new drugs added, including 50 innovative drugs [13][14] - The commercial insurance directory's introduction is seen as a significant step towards expanding China's commercial health insurance landscape [14][15]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to several companies in the automotive sector, including Xpeng Motors, Geely Automobile, Great Wall Motors, BYD, GAC Group, and others, with target prices ranging from 2.5 to 125 [3][4]. Core Insights - The Chinese automotive industry is expected to achieve record-high retail and wholesale sales in 2025, with a more complex landscape anticipated in 2026 due to the phasing out of subsidies and tax incentives [2][4]. - The report expresses a more optimistic view on the resilience of the automotive sector compared to market expectations, predicting a slight decline in retail sales by 0.1% to 2,415 million units in 2026, while wholesale sales are expected to grow by 2.9% to 3,125 million units [4][22]. - The competition in the automotive sector is expected to intensify, with a record number of new models anticipated in 2026, leading to a potential increase in market share for domestic brands [4][24]. Summary by Sections Sales Forecast - Retail sales of passenger vehicles in China are projected to reach 2,418 million units in 2025, a 3.2% increase year-on-year, while wholesale sales are expected to exceed 3,000 million units for the first time [44][52]. - The report anticipates that the retail sales will remain stable in 2026, supported by the importance of automotive consumption to the Chinese economy and the introduction of new models [22][44]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the competition among automakers will become more fierce, with a record 173 new models expected to be launched in 2026 [23][24]. - The demand for electric vehicle batteries is expected to rise, potentially leading to increased battery prices, which could impact automaker profit margins [23][24]. Investment Strategy - The report recommends Geely Automobile as a top pick due to its solid fundamentals and attractive valuation, alongside the battery manufacturer Zhengli New Energy, which is expected to benefit from rising battery prices and a growing customer base [28][29]. - The report suggests that the valuation gap between traditional automakers and new entrants is likely to narrow as both groups adapt to market changes [25][26]. Export Potential - The report forecasts that China's passenger vehicle exports will increase by 16% in 2026, driven primarily by the growth in electric vehicle exports, which are expected to rise by 40% [61][62]. - The potential market for Chinese brands overseas is estimated at 7.8 million units, indicating significant growth opportunities in various regions [61][62].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a "barbell" investment strategy focusing on companies with stable cash flows supporting AI-related investments and those with strong operational capabilities for overseas expansion [1][3]. Core Insights - 2026 is viewed as a pivotal year for capturing user attention in the AI era, emphasizing the importance of lowering usage barriers, enhancing decision-making efficiency, and creating real value [1]. - Companies like Tencent, Alibaba, and Kuaishou are highlighted for their potential to benefit from AI-driven growth in advertising and cloud services, while firms like NetEase and Trip.com are noted for their stable earnings growth and reasonable valuations [1][3]. Summary by Sections AI Theme - Companies to watch include Tencent, which is expected to benefit from AI-driven advertising and cloud growth, Alibaba, which has a lower valuation compared to peers, and Kuaishou, which is making progress in monetizing AI applications [1][3]. Profit Growth Certainty - Focus on companies with reasonable valuations and strong performance, such as NetEase and Trip.com, which are expected to maintain stable profit growth [1][3]. E-commerce and Online Retail - The online retail sector is anticipated to see growth in experiential consumption, while competition in physical goods retail may normalize due to reduced government subsidies [3][15]. - Instant retail is expected to maintain high GMV growth, but the overall e-commerce sector may face challenges in revenue and profit growth due to competitive pressures [3][15]. Online Gaming and Music - The online gaming industry is projected to grow by around 10% in revenue, with profit growth expected to be between 10-15% [15]. - The online music sector is expected to see revenue and profit growth of 10-15%, although competition from ByteDance's music platform poses challenges [15][18]. Cloud and Advertising - Cloud and advertising are expected to remain the main growth drivers for companies leveraging AI, with a focus on investment returns [3][39]. Overseas Expansion - The report highlights the potential for overseas expansion in cloud services and OTA, with companies that have strong cash flow and profit margins likely to perform better in the long term [3][15]. Investment Recommendations - Specific companies recommended for investment include Tencent, Alibaba, Kuaishou, Trip.com, and NetEase, each with unique strengths and growth prospects in the AI and digital landscape [37][38].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Microsoft (MSFT US), Google (GOOG US), Amazon (AMZN US), and Palo Alto Networks (PANW US) [22][23]. Core Insights - The competition in the large model industry is expected to intensify, with AI applications continuing to monetize effectively. The report highlights the potential for revenue growth driven by enhanced capabilities in AI models, particularly in image editing and video generation [1][25]. - Cloud service providers are experiencing accelerated revenue growth, with capital expenditures increasing significantly, indicating strong demand and a healthy outlook for profitability [3][9]. - AI monetization is driving growth in core business areas while exploring new revenue opportunities, with a focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvements [3][22]. Summary by Sections Industry Outlook - The large model industry is witnessing intensified competition, with continuous improvements in model capabilities and decreasing costs for model invocation. Key trends include a focus on agentic capabilities, faster iteration of open-source models, and the feasibility of large-scale deployment of end-to-end voice interaction models [3][25]. Cloud Business Performance - Revenue growth for U.S. internet companies' cloud businesses has accelerated, with a year-on-year increase in capital expenditures reaching $93.1 billion (+71% YoY). Operating profit for cloud businesses grew by 24.1% YoY in Q3 2025 [3][9]. AI Monetization - AI is driving growth beyond traditional cloud and advertising sectors, creating new revenue opportunities and enhancing operational efficiency. The report notes that enterprise AI applications are commercializing more slowly than AI cloud and advertising but still show promise for profit margin improvements [3][22]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on two main scenarios for AI monetization: applications where large models excel, such as programming and creative generation, and high-value AI applications in traditional verticals like enterprise intelligence and education [3][22]. Financial Projections - The report projects that global AI spending will grow by 37% year-on-year to reach $2.0 trillion by 2026, with significant growth expected in AI application software and AI infrastructure software [8][22].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to key companies in the mining machinery sector, including SANY Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, and Weichai Power, indicating strong growth potential in the upcoming years [5][4]. Core Insights - The mining machinery sector, particularly large mining excavators and trucks, is expected to be a major growth area for Chinese engineering machinery manufacturers in 2026, driven by high global capital expenditure in mining and increasing demand for Chinese brand equipment due to domestic companies expanding overseas [2][4]. - The report forecasts a 70% increase in global demand for backup generator sets for data centers from 2025 to 2030, presenting significant opportunities for Weichai Power [2][4]. - The report highlights that the replacement cycle for construction equipment in China is ongoing, with specific growth expected in the automotive crane sector starting in 2026, driven by energy construction demands [4][2]. Summary by Sections Mining Machinery - Global mining capital expenditure is projected to remain high, with a 16% year-on-year growth expected in 2025, and continued growth in 2026, driven by rising demand for energy-related metals and aging equipment needing replacement [12][25]. - Chinese brands are increasingly penetrating the large mining machinery market, traditionally dominated by international giants like Caterpillar and Komatsu, by enhancing product offerings and after-sales service networks [4][12]. - Africa and Brazil are identified as key markets for Chinese mining machinery, with increasing import shares from China surpassing those from the U.S. in recent years [4][46]. Equipment Replacement Cycle - The report anticipates that the replacement cycle for earth-moving machinery will continue, with excavators and wheel loaders seeing sustained demand [4][68]. - The upcoming Yaxia hydropower project in China is expected to significantly boost demand for construction machinery, with an estimated annual investment of approximately 24 billion RMB in related machinery [67][68]. Data Center Power Equipment - The demand for backup diesel generator sets is expected to grow significantly, with the market size projected to expand from approximately 4 billion USD in 2025 to about 6.8 billion USD by 2030, reflecting a growth rate exceeding 70% [4][2]. - Weichai Power is positioned to capitalize on this growth, focusing on the backup power segment for data centers [4][2]. Company-Specific Insights - SANY Heavy Industry aims to increase its sales of large mining trucks from 22% in 2024 to 40% in 2025 and 55% in 2026, indicating a strategic shift towards larger equipment [32][38]. - The report emphasizes the potential for after-market services in the mining equipment sector, which can provide sustainable revenue growth as the installed base of equipment increases [43][4].

招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 行业及公司点评 全球市场观察 2025 年 12 月 8 日 1 中国股市上涨，港股原材料、金融与工业领涨，综合、公用事业与必选消费 下跌，南向净买入 13.4 亿港元，小米与美团净买入最多，阿里与腾讯净卖出 居前。A 股非银金融、有色金属与工贸综合涨幅居前，银行、煤炭与电信服 务跑输市场。A 股券商板块大涨，中国证监会主席表示鼓励头部机构通过并 购重组打造国际一流投行，将对优质券商适度松绑打开资本空间与杠杆限制， 鼓励中小机构打造小而美的精品投行、特色投行和特色服务商；保险板块大 涨，保险公司投资资本市场的风险因子再度下调，显示监管机构鼓励险资等 长期资本入市的态度。 美股上涨，通讯服务、信息技术与可选消费涨幅居前，公用事业、能源与医 疗保健跌幅最大。戴尔、联想、惠普等主要 OEM 厂商计划大幅提高服务器 价格，因供应很难跟上快速增长的需求。微软与博通商谈定制芯片设计合作， 可能替换现有供应商 Marvell，以降低对英伟达依赖。随着 AI 产品创新，定 制芯片需求激增，科技公司寻求供应链多元化以降低风险与成本。 美债收益率升至两周新高，美元指数转 ...

2025 年 12 月 5 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 行业及公司点评 全球市场观察 半导体行业 – 宽禁带半导体 – SiC/GaN：驱动新一轮 AI 基础设施升级 我们认为，在碳化硅（SiC）和氮化镓（GaN）的带动下，宽禁带半导体行 业正步入一个全新的、多年持续的增长阶段。汽车电动化依然是核心的长期 驱动力，但更具结构性的新需求前沿正在打开，即 AI 数据中心的电力架构重 构。 行业正从传统 54V 直流供电（DC）加速迈向 800V 高压直流（HVDC）架构， 这一转变对新一代高功率 AI 机架至关重要，而其物理和经济可行性都高度依 赖 SiC 和 GaN 的应用。这一演进正把相关材料的定位，从单纯的"性能增 强器"提升为"关键基础设施组件"，由此形成一个具备高度延续性的投资 主线。我们预计，那些具备规模优势、在 8 英寸晶圆上技术领先、拥有车规 级认证产品管线，并具备系统级解决方案能力的企业，将成为本轮趋势中的 主要受益者。 行业点评 强劲的市场增长。根据 TrendForce 数据，2024 年全球 SiC 功率器件市场规 模约 34 亿美元，同比增长 12%， ...