2025 年 9 月 8 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 宏观、行业及公司点评 全球市场观察 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 25,418 | 1.43 | 26.71 | | 恒生国企 | 9,057 | 1.34 | 24.24 | | 恒生科技 | 5,687 | 1.95 | 27.29 | | 上证综指 | 3,813 | 1.24 | 13.75 | | 深证综指 | 2,406 | 3.19 | 22.91 | | 深圳创业板 | 2,958 | 6.55 | 38.13 | | 美国道琼斯 | 45,401 | -0.48 | 6.71 | | 美国标普 500 | 6,482 | -0.32 | 10.20 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 21,700 | -0.03 | 12.37 | | 德国 DAX | 23,597 | -0.73 | 18.52 ...

Employment Data - In August, the U.S. added only 22,000 non-farm jobs, significantly below the market expectation of 75,000[6] - The June data was revised down from 14,000 to -13,000, ending a streak of 53 consecutive months of job growth[6] - The three-month moving average of job growth has dropped to 29,000, the lowest since the pandemic began, compared to an average of 180,000 in 2018-2019[6] Labor Market Trends - The unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in August, the highest since 2021, primarily due to an increase in the labor participation rate from 62.2% to 63.3%[6] - Full-time employment decreased by 357,000, while part-time jobs increased by 597,000, indicating a cooling labor market[6] - Private sector job growth fell from 77,000 in July to 38,000 in August, with goods-producing sectors losing 25,000 jobs[6] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to begin cutting interest rates in September, as the risk of job market deterioration outweighs inflation concerns[6] - Core inflation remains high, which may lead the Fed to pause rate cuts in October before resuming in December, with the year-end federal funds rate projected around 3.83%[6] - Further rate cuts are anticipated next year as economic growth stabilizes and inflation declines[6]

Economic Indicators - The ISM Services PMI increased from 50.1 in July to 52 in August, exceeding market expectations of 51, indicating economic expansion[2] - The Services PMI corresponds to an annualized GDP growth rate of 1.1%[2] - The Manufacturing PMI rose slightly from 48 in July to 48.7 in August, but remained below the market expectation of 49, indicating a continued contraction[2] Employment and Inflation - The employment index in the services sector slightly improved from 46.4 to 46.5, indicating ongoing weakness in the job market[2] - The price index for services decreased marginally from 69.9 to 69.2, but remains significantly high compared to the post-pandemic average[2] - If August's non-farm payrolls are below 50,000 and the unemployment rate rises to 4.3%, the Federal Reserve may consider rate cuts in September or October[1] Market Outlook - The new orders index in manufacturing surged from 47.1 to 51.4, marking the highest expansion rate since the beginning of the year[2] - The Federal Reserve's focus has shifted from inflation risks to a more balanced assessment due to recent labor market data adjustments[2] - Further rate cuts are anticipated in December and potentially two more in the following year as economic growth stabilizes and inflation decreases[1]

Market Overview - The global stock markets showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 25,059, down 1.12% for the day but up 24.92% year-to-date [1] - The US markets, including the Dow Jones and S&P 500, experienced gains of 0.77% and 0.83% respectively, while the Nasdaq rose by 0.98% [1] - Chinese stock markets faced declines, particularly in hardware technology, with the Shenzhen Composite Index down 2.05% [1][3] Sector Performance - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Financial Index decreased by 0.42%, while the Hang Seng Industrial Index fell by 1.58% [2] - The hardware technology sector in China led the declines, while sectors such as retail and food saw gains [3] - The US market saw a rise in consumer discretionary, banking, and solar sectors, while utilities and AI-related stocks lagged [3] Company Analysis - Salesforce reported a 10% year-on-year revenue growth to $10.2 billion for Q2 FY26, with non-GAAP net profit increasing by 12% to $2.8 billion, aligning with Bloomberg consensus [4] - The company’s cRPO grew by 11% to $29.4 billion, driven by strong orders from small and medium-sized enterprises [4] - Salesforce's AI and data cloud business saw an impressive annual recurring revenue growth of approximately 120% [4] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies, including Geely Automobile, Li Auto, and Tencent, with target prices indicating significant upside potential [5] - Geely Automobile is rated "Buy" with a target price of 25.00 HKD, representing a 37% upside from its current price of 18.24 HKD [5] - Tencent is also rated "Buy" with a target price of 705.00 HKD, suggesting an 18% upside from its current price of 599.50 HKD [5]

Market Overview - Global markets showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 25,343, down 0.60% for the day but up 26.34% year-to-date [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.16% to 3,814, while the Shenzhen Composite Index decreased by 1.41% to 2,380 [1] - In the US, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased slightly by 0.05% to 45,271, while the S&P 500 rose by 0.51% to 6,448 [1] Sector Performance - The Hang Seng Financial Index fell by 0.72% to 44,195, while the Hang Seng Real Estate Index dropped by 1.23% to 18,116 [2] - The healthcare sector showed resilience, with medical devices and innovative drugs performing well [3] Company Analysis: VILIZHIBO (9887 HK) - VILIZHIBO focuses on developing next-generation immuno-oncology therapies, with a broad product pipeline including immune checkpoint inhibitors and T-cell engagers [4] - The company has established proprietary platforms for drug innovation, including the LeadsBody platform for CD3 T-cell engagers and the X-body platform for 4-1BB agonists [4] - LBL-024, targeting PD-L1/4-1BB, is in the registration clinical stage and shows promising clinical data, with an overall response rate (ORR) of 33.3% in specific cancer patients [5] Company Analysis: China Life (2628 HK) - China Life reported a net profit increase of 7% to 40.9 billion RMB for the first half of 2025, despite a 31% decline in Q2 due to rising insurance service costs [7] - The new business value grew by 20.3% to 28.5 billion RMB, driven by significant growth in bancassurance channels [8] - The company’s core equity assets increased, benefiting from realized capital gains and dividend income [8] Company Analysis: JS Global (1691 HK) - JS Global's SharkNinja brand continues to see high growth in the Asia-Pacific region, with market share in Australia and New Zealand increasing significantly [10] - The company is shifting focus from scale to profitability, with expectations of improved gross and net margins due to product upgrades and SKU optimization [11] - Despite a slight decline in sales, the company anticipates a recovery in overseas sales and improved profitability in the coming years [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The secondary IG market in Japan faced pressure due to heavy supply, with new issues widening and perpetuals under pressure. Chinese IG also widened, while some Chinese property and Macau gaming bonds showed mixed performance. Fosun's new bond issuance and tender offer are part of its debt management, and its credit profile is improving [2][8][11] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading Desk Comments - Yesterday, there were 6 Japanese and 1 Indian bond in the IG new issuance pipeline, pressuring the Japanese secondary IG market. New issues like JERA/HOKKEL/MITSCO widened 2 - 4bps, and perpetuals were pressured by the bear - steepening USD yield curve. Japanese insurance hybrids/AT1s and Yankee AT1s/insurance hybrids declined. China IG widened 2 - 4bps, with better selling on TMT names. Some bonds like FOSUNI 26 - 28s and DALWAN 11 02/13/26 rose. In Chinese properties and Macau gaming, bonds had mixed performance. TW lifers tightened, Korea IG widened, and SEA space had various movements [2] - This morning, new bonds like MUFG 31 - 36/MUFG 6.35 Perp had different price changes. FOSUNI 6.8 09/09/29 was 0.3pt higher, and ADANEM 30 - 31s were 0.2 - 0.5pt higher [3] - In the LGFV space, there was a mixed two - way session with more selling, and bonds repriced 30 - 50bps wider from YTD tights [4] - The top performers included BIMLVN 7 3/8 05/07/26 with a 1.3 price increase, while top underperformers like GLPSP 4 1/2 PERP dropped 2.3 [5] Macro News Recap - On Tuesday, S&P (-0.69%), Dow (-0.55%), and Nasdaq (-0.82%) were lower. US Aug'25 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was 53.0 (lower than expected), and ISM Manufacturing PMI/Prices were 48.7/63.7 (lower than expected). UST yield was higher, with 2/5/10/30 - year yields at 3.66%/3.74%/4.28%/4.97% [7] Desk Analyst Comments - Analysts are neutral on the new FOSUNI 6.8 09/09/29. Fosun priced the bond at 6.8% (vs IPT of 7.2%), with an issue size capped at USD400mn on an order book over USD2.5bn. The bond has a 4 - year tenor with a 2.5 - year non - call period. Analysts view its valuation as fair, and for Chinese HY, they prefer BTSDF 9.125 07/24/28 and EHICARs [8] - Fosun announced a tender offer for USD500mn FOSUNI 5 05/18/26, to be financed by the new bond issue and/or internal resources. The offer expires on 10 Sep'25 4pm (GMT) and will be settled around 16 Sep'25. Participation in the tender offer doesn't provide priority allocation for the new bond [9] - The new issuance and tender offer are part of Fosun's debt maturity management. In 2025, Fosun has repurchased bonds via tender offers and called the remaining amount. As of Jun'25, it held RMB16bn cash and RMB89.2bn total debt at holdco level, with a plan to deleverage further [10] - Fosun's credit profile is improving due to asset disposals, debt maturity management, and better access to funding channels onshore and offshore. It has issued bonds and raised loans in 2024 - 2025 [11] Offshore Asia New Issues (Priced) - Multiple issuers including Arab National Bank, Ares Capital, Credit Agricole, etc., have priced new bonds with different sizes, tenors, coupons, and issue ratings [12] Offshore Asia New Issues (Pipeline) - Fubon Life, PTT Global Chemical, and Sumitomo Life Insurance have bonds in the issuance pipeline with specified tenors, pricing, and issue ratings [13] News and Market Color - Yesterday, 37 onshore credit bonds were issued with an amount of RMB25bn. Month - to - date, 99 credit bonds were issued, raising RMB68bn, a 10.8% yoy decrease. NIO's 2Q25 revenue rose 9% yoy to RMB19bn. India regulator approved SMBC's acquisition of 20% shareholding in YES Bank, and the US revoked TSMC waiver for shipping chipmaking tools to China [14]

Core Insights - The report highlights a mixed performance in global markets, with notable declines in major indices such as the Hang Seng Index and the S&P 500, while some sectors like energy and healthcare showed resilience [1][3]. - The report indicates a significant increase in private equity research visits in August, particularly in sectors like healthcare and electronics, suggesting growing investor interest [3]. - The report emphasizes the competitive landscape for NIO, projecting a potential net loss of 7.8 billion yuan in 2026 despite a 45% increase in sales, indicating high operational challenges [6]. Company Analysis NIO Inc. (NIO US/9866 HK) - NIO's Q2 2025 revenue grew by 58% to 19 billion yuan, exceeding expectations due to higher average selling prices and R&D service contributions [4]. - The company is expected to narrow its net loss significantly in Q4 2025, with a projected non-GAAP net loss of 1 billion yuan, contingent on achieving a sales volume of 150,000 units and maintaining a gross margin of 16-17% [5]. - Despite optimistic sales forecasts, the report expresses skepticism about NIO's ability to achieve a 20% gross margin due to aggressive pricing strategies [5][6]. ZTE Corporation (763 HK/000063 CH) - ZTE reported a 15% year-on-year revenue increase to 71.6 billion yuan in H1 2025, driven by strong sales in AI infrastructure [6]. - The company’s operating segments showed varied performance, with the enterprise business growing by 110%, primarily due to a surge in server and storage sales [7]. - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for ZTE, raising the target price to 42 HKD, reflecting confidence in its growth trajectory amid the AI investment cycle [6]. Market Observations - The report notes a general decline in major stock indices, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.47% and the S&P 500 down 0.69%, indicating a cautious market sentiment [1]. - The report highlights the impact of geopolitical factors, such as the depreciation of the Japanese yen and political uncertainties in Japan, which may affect investor confidence [3]. - The report also mentions the rising U.S. Treasury yields, driven by concerns over high government debt levels, which could influence market dynamics and investor behavior [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 173 RMB, down from the previous target of 176 RMB, indicating a potential upside of 19.1% from the current price of 145.20 RMB [1][2][17]. Core Insights - The company reported a robust performance in the first half of 2025, with revenue increasing by 15% year-on-year to 14 billion RMB, driven by double-digit growth in simulation solutions (+21%) and distribution business (+42%) [1]. - Gross margin remained stable at 30.5%, up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, while net profit surged by 48% to 2 billion RMB, leading to a net profit margin increase to 14.5% from 11.3% in the same period last year [1]. - The core business, CIS (image sensors), achieved record sales of 10.3 billion RMB, growing 11% year-on-year, with significant growth in automotive (+30%), security (+17%), emerging IoT (+249%), and medical CIS (+68%), offsetting a decline in mobile CIS (-19%) [1][6]. - The company is expected to maintain a favorable position in the CIS market, particularly in automotive and medical sectors, with projected revenue growth of 18% and 25% for FY25 and FY26, respectively, and net profit growth of 24% and 50% [1][6]. Financial Summary - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 172.79 billion RMB, with an average trading volume of 2.1 million RMB [2]. - The financial outlook includes projected sales revenue of 30.3 billion RMB for FY25, with a year-on-year growth of 17.8%, and net profit expected to reach 4.13 billion RMB, reflecting a 24.3% increase [7][11]. - The report indicates a decrease in profit forecasts for FY25 and FY26 by 19% and 15%, respectively, due to slower growth in mobile CIS and pressure on gross margins [6][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company reported strong Q2 2025 results with record-high sales and improved profit margins, particularly in its core PCB business. Revenue reached 5.7 billion RMB, marking a 30% year-over-year and 19% quarter-over-quarter increase, exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates by 6%. Net profit was 869 million RMB, up 43% year-over-year and 77% quarter-over-quarter, surpassing Bloomberg estimates by 41%. The gross margin improved by 2.8 percentage points to 27.6%, while the net margin reached a historical high of 15.5% [1] - The company's strategic positioning in high-growth sectors such as AI servers, data centers, and automotive electronics supports the "Buy" rating. Continuous capacity expansion from projects in Thailand and Nantong, along with stable R&D investment at 6%-7% of sales, will reinforce the company's competitive advantage and long-term growth [1] - The target price has been raised to 235 RMB, reflecting an 18.7% potential upside from the current price of 198 RMB [3] Financial Summary - For FY25E, the company is projected to achieve sales revenue of 22.68 billion RMB, a 26.6% year-over-year increase. The gross margin is expected to be 26.9%, and net profit is forecasted at 3.03 billion RMB, representing a 61.4% increase year-over-year [2][15] - The company’s EPS is expected to rise to 5.91 RMB in FY25E, with a P/E ratio of 33.5 times [2][15] - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 101.55 billion RMB, with a 52-week stock price range of 198.00/67.53 RMB [3][14] Business Segment Performance - The PCB business, accounting for 60% of total sales, achieved revenue of 6.3 billion RMB in the first half of the year, a 29% year-over-year increase. The growth was driven by strong demand in wireless communication infrastructure, data centers, and automotive applications [8] - The packaging substrate segment saw sales of 1.7 billion RMB, a 9% year-over-year increase, but faced margin pressure due to rising raw material costs and capacity ramp-up challenges [8] Market Comparison - The company’s P/E ratio is projected to be higher than the historical average, reflecting the industry's upward cycle momentum. The new target price is based on a 33.7 times P/E for FY26E, which is approximately one standard deviation above the five-year historical average [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price raised to 460 RMB, reflecting a potential upside of 23.5% from the current price of 372.50 RMB [1][3]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 79 billion RMB for Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 22%, despite a quarter-on-quarter decline of 3% due to seasonal fluctuations [1]. - The gross margin decreased to 41.3%, down 6.0 percentage points year-on-year and 1.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to lower profit margins in the electronic components business [1]. - Net profit was 16 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year decline of 2% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3%, with a net profit margin improvement to 20.5% [1]. - The company is strategically positioned in the domestic semiconductor equipment market, benefiting from the trend of domestic substitution [1][7]. - Revenue is expected to grow by 32% and 26% year-on-year in 2025 and 2026, respectively [1]. Financial Summary - For FY25E, the company is projected to achieve sales revenue of 39,473 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 31.7% [2]. - The gross margin is expected to be 41.8% in FY25E, with net profit projected at 7,297 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 29.6% [2]. - The company’s return on equity is forecasted to be 21.2% in FY25E [2]. Market Position and Growth - The company is expected to capture over 5% market share in the domestic semiconductor equipment sector, with total sales exceeding 210 billion RMB for the year [7]. - The company has expanded its product offerings through R&D and acquisitions, including entering the ion implantation equipment market and acquiring a stake in ChipSource [7]. - The sales of semiconductor equipment are anticipated to grow by approximately 50% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [7]. Valuation Metrics - The target price of 460 RMB is based on a 35x P/E ratio for 2026, aligning with the historical average [7]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 268,945 million RMB [3].