宏观策略 策略观点 - 政策观望期 宏观：近期政策刺激提振中国经济，住房销量和耐用消费显著改善。在特朗普关税冲击到来之前，中国政策可 能进入观望防守状态。下半年随着政策刺激效应递减和贸易冲突到来，中国政策可能开启新一轮宽松刺激。美 国经济将延续温和放缓，通胀短期下降，但中期面临特朗普政策效应的扰动。美联储进入对特朗普政策效应的 观察评估期，对降息更加谨慎。随着通胀短期回落，美元实际利率进一步上升，高利率、强美元和高估值可能 推升市场波动性，美联储可能在3月或5月降息1次。在通胀降至更低后，特朗普可能在三季度开启新一轮贸易 战，市场震荡可能促使美联储9月再降息1次。 科技：展望2025年，考虑到全球经济温和复苏、手机/PC需求持续回暖、通用/AI服务器增长延续和端侧AI创新 周期，我们预计科技板块维持高景气度，建议布局两条主线：1）AI终端：各大厂商将于1月CES展会密集发布 AI新品，加上近期苹果Apple Intelligence加快升级，国内手机/平板/智能手表补贴政策，端侧AI创新落地提 速，有望驱动新一轮升级需求（手机/PC/穿戴/眼镜/智能家居/EV）；2）服务器：受益AI算力需求扩张， GB200 ...

2025 年 1 月 8 日 招银国际环球市场 | 策略报告 | 市场策略 策略观点 政策观望期 叶丙南, Ph.D 刘泽晖 伍力恒 刘梦楠 杨天薇, Ph.D 张元圣 贺赛一, CFA 陶冶, CFA 陆文韬, CFA 武煜, CFA 王银朋 黄本晨, CFA 王云逸 张苗 李昀嘉 胡永匡 史迹, CFA 窦文静, CFA 梁晓钧 马毓泽 冯键嵘, CFA 敬请参阅尾页之免责声明 请到彭博 (搜索代码: RESP CMBR )或 http:// www.cmbi.com.hk 下载更多招银国际环球市场研究报告 1 MN 宏观：近期政策刺激提振中国经济，住房销量和耐用消费显著改善。在特朗 普关税冲击到来之前，中国政策可能进入观望防守状态。下半年随着政策刺 激效应递减和贸易冲突到来，中国政策可能开启新一轮宽松刺激。美国经济 将延续温和放缓，通胀短期下降，但中期面临特朗普政策效应的扰动。美联 储进入对特朗普政策效应的观察评估期，对降息更加谨慎。随着通胀短期回 落，美元实际利率进一步上升，高利率、强美元和高估值可能推升市场波动 性，美联储可能在 3 月或 5 月降息 1 次。在通胀降至更低后，特朗普可能在 三季度开 ...

2025 年 1 月 7 日 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 行业研究 软件 & IT 服务 海外公司梳理：拆解盈利增长前景及估值提升空间 2024 年美股头部科技平台整体表现良好，全年收益率平均值/中位数在 60%/44%，主要得益于：1）宏观经济维持韧性，美联储开启降息提升市场流 动性；2）AI 成为第二增长曲线，拉动 AI 芯片/AI 云/广告业务增速，行业龙头 依托于领先的产品能力/基建/客户基础/应用场景率先受益。展望 2025 年，我们 认为 AI 仍然是投资主线，但受益路径有望从 AI 芯片以及 AI 公有云进一步传导 到更多应用场景，包括 B 端和 C 端的应用软件，企业 SaaS 和数据云平台营收 有望相较 2024 年加速。头部科技平台中我们看好 Amazon（云需求持续增长及 零售业务运营效率持续优化驱动盈利稳步增长）、Alphabet（AI 搜索改善用户 体验并提升商业化水平，AI 云业务维持较快增长且利润率改善）、Meta（广告 业务持续受益于 AI 维持快速增长，依托于庞大用户基础较好实现 C 端 AI 应用 落地及变现）、Microsoft（AI 主题下重要的应用端核心投资标 ...

3 Jan 2025 Earnings Summary CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Wingtech (600745 CH) Valuation to improve on ODM business spin-off On December 31, 2024, Wingtech signed a "Letter of Intent for Sale" for nine wholly-owned ODM subsidiaries with Luxshare Limited in an all-cash deal. This move follows its recent addition to the US trade blacklist (news). According to mgmt., this transaction serves two primary purposes: (1) to align with the risk preferences of certain ODM clients ...

3 Jan 2025 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Innovent Biologics (1801 HK) Initial validation of overseas expansion capabilities Out-licensed global rights of DLL3 ADC to Roche. Innovent has out-licensed the global rights of IBI3009, a novel DLL3 ADC, to Roche through a blockbuster deal. The drug candidate obtained IND approval for a global Ph1 study in Dec 2024. Innovent and Roche will jointly focus on the early-stage development of the asset before Roche assumes full respo ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Hesai Group (HSAI US) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of $16.3 per ADS, based on a 4.8x 2025 expected price-to-sales ratio [2][3] Core Viewpoints - Hesai Group is a global leader in 3D LiDAR solutions, with a strong competitive advantage in the industry [5] - The company is expected to reach a profitability turning point in 2024, driven by increased shipments of existing LiDAR products, the launch of a cost-effective new AT series in 2025, and improved operational efficiency [2] - Hesai Group is projected to achieve Non-GAAP net profits of RMB 9 million in 2024 and RMB 141 million in 2025 [2] - The company has established mass production partnerships with 20 domestic and international automakers for 75 vehicle models as of 3Q24 [5] - Hesai Group holds a 37% market share in the global LiDAR market in 2023, ranking first, with leading positions in both passenger car/light commercial vehicle (26%) and autonomous taxi (74%) segments [12] Market and Industry Analysis - The global automotive LiDAR market is expected to reach $3.63 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 38% from 2023 to 2029 [12] - The passenger car (PC) and light commercial vehicle (LCV)/autonomous taxi LiDAR markets are projected to reach $2.99 billion and $638 million, respectively, by 2029, with CAGRs of 39% and 31% from 2023 to 2029 [12] - Hesai Group is well-positioned to benefit from the strong growth in the LiDAR market, given its leading position in both global and Chinese LiDAR solution markets [12] Competitive Advantages - Hesai Group's competitive advantages include its leading technological capabilities, such as the self-developed ASIC chip, which enables continuous cost optimization [5] - The company's in-house manufacturing and highly automated production methods provide it with leading mass production capabilities [5] - Strong customer relationships drive continuous market penetration [5] Valuation and Target Price - The target valuation of RMB 15.9 billion (equivalent to $16.3 per ADS) is based on a 4.8x 2025 expected price-to-sales ratio, which is 10% higher than the industry average of 4.4x [3] - This valuation is supported by Hesai Group's industry-leading financial performance and a strong product delivery plan in 2025, driven by incremental contributions from leading automakers [3]

20 Dec 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Hansoh Pharma (3692 HK) Oral GLP-1 candidate accomplished transaction with MSD Hansoh out-licensed oral GLP-1 drug to MSD. Hansoh has granted MSD a global exclusive license for HS-10535, a preclinical stage oral small molecule GLP-1R agonist. Under the agreement, Hansoh will receive an upfront payment of US$112mn, with potential milestone payments up to US$1.9bn, plus future sales royalties. Under specific conditions, Hansoh may ...

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2024 年 12 月 17 日 招银国际环球市场 | 策略报告 | 宏观策略 2025 美国经济展望 开局乐观，渐趋谨慎 特朗普政策将延长美国经济扩张后周期，带来短期加热效应和中期滞胀效应。 美国经济有望软着陆，实际 GDP 增速将从 2024 年的 2.7%放缓至 2025 年的 2.3%和 2026 年的 2%。通胀可能逐渐趋近目标，但特朗普政策可能增加中期通 胀不确定性。货币政策仍在限制性状态，美联储可能在 2025 年底前降息三 次，每次 25 个基点。由于特朗普政策预期，上半年美元将保持强势，但随着关 税和移民政策削弱中期增长前景，下半年美元可能有所回落。 特朗普减税政策将提升需求和通胀；去监管将通过提高效率而促进经济增 长并降低通胀；移民政策将同时减少劳工供应和消费需求，降低经济增 长，但对通胀影响相对中性；关税政策将抑制需求并提高供应链成本，带 来滞胀效应；特朗普对美联储干预可能削弱货币政策公信力，增加中期通 胀预期不稳定性。 在基准情景下，特朗普政策力度温和，合计将推升 2025-2027 年均 GDP 增速 0.2-0.3 个百分点，降低 2027 年后年均 GDP 增速 0.1-0.2 ...