2025 年 12 月 18 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 宏观点评 全球市场观察 宏观经济 美国经济 - 就业小幅走弱 美国 10 月新增非农就业大幅萎缩，因年初政府裁员的合同买断结束时间集 中来临，私营就业保持扩张。11 月新增非农就业反弹并好于市场预期，但 主要集中在建筑、医疗和教育服务等少数行业，失业率意外升至 4.6%创近 4 年新高。由于政府停摆导致 10 月部分数据缺失，此次非农就业数据噪音 较大，货币市场反应温和。 就业市场整体走弱，但尚未大幅恶化。首次领取失业金和持续领取失业金人 数小幅改善，服务业 PMI 就业指数和 Indeed 网站职位招聘数回升，显示就 业市场仍有韧性。我们预计 2026 年经济增速和失业率可能走平，通胀先降 再升，美联储可能在 6 月降息一次。（链接） 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 25,469 | 0.92 | 26 ...

2025 年 12 月 17 日 招银国际环球市场 | 宏观研究 | 宏观视角 美国经济 Economic Perspectives - 就业小幅走弱 美国 10 月新增非农就业大幅萎缩，因年初政府裁员的合同买断结束时间集中 来临，私营就业保持扩张。11 月新增非农就业反弹并好于市场预期，但主要 集中在建筑、医疗和教育服务等少数行业，失业率意外升至 4.6%创近 4 年新 高。由于政府停摆导致 10 月部分数据缺失，此次非农就业数据噪音较大，货 币市场反应温和。就业市场整体走弱，但尚未大幅恶化。首次领取失业金和持 续领取失业金人数小幅改善，服务业 PMI 就业指数和 Indeed 网站职位招聘数 回升，显示就业市场仍有韧性。我们预计 2026 年经济增速和失业率可能走 平，通胀先降再升，美联储可能在 6 月降息一次。 就业小幅走弱，美联储降息空间有限。美国就业市场小幅走弱，但尚未大 幅恶化。首次领取失业金和持续领取失业金人数仍在低位，并从 10 月开 始小幅改善。服务业 PMI 就业指数和 Indeed 网站职位招聘数缓慢回升。 10月除汽车和汽油外的零售环比增速保持快速扩张，显示消费仍有韧性。 AI 应用扩 ...

2025 年 12 月 17 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 全球市场观察 全球市场观察 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 25,235 | -1.54 | 25.80 | | 恒生国企 | 8,758 | -1.79 | 20.14 | | 恒生科技 | 5,403 | -1.74 | 20.91 | | 上证综指 | 3,825 | -1.11 | 14.11 | | 深证综指 | 2,418 | -1.50 | 23.51 | | 深圳创业板 | 3,072 | -2.10 | 43.43 | | 美国道琼斯 | 48,114 | -0.62 | 13.09 | | 美国标普 500 | 6,800 | -0.24 | 15.62 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 23,111 | 0.23 | 19.68 | | 德国 DAX | 24,077 | -0.63 | 2 ...

2025 年 12 月 16 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 宏观及行业展望 全球市场观察 宏观经济 中国经济 – 经济动能减弱 1 11 月房地产市场、耐用品消费和家庭部门新增贷款的全面下滑显示终端需求 走弱，预示 2026 年第一季度经济增长势头疲软。GDP 增速连续多个季度低 于5%可能触发新一轮政策宽松。展望未来，我们预计2026年第一季度RRR 将下调 50 个基点，LPR 将下调 10 个基点，第三季度 LPR 将再次下调 10 个 基点，而 2026 年广义财政赤字预计将维持在 8.5%的水平。我们预计 2026 年全年 GDP 增速可能从 2025 年的 5%下降至 4.8%。（链接） 敬请参阅尾页之免责声明 请到彭博 (搜索代码: RESP CMBR )或 http://www.cmbi.com.hk 下载更多研究报告 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the semiconductor industry, highlighting four core investment themes for 2026: AI-driven structural growth, China's semiconductor self-sufficiency trend, high-yield defensive positioning, and industry consolidation through mergers and acquisitions [2][4]. Core Insights - The global semiconductor market is projected to grow by 26% year-on-year in 2026, reaching $975 billion, with AI-related segments leading this growth [4][48]. - Key recommended stocks include Zhongji Xuchuang (300308 CH), with a target price of RMB 707, and Shengyi Technology (600183 CH), with a target price of RMB 90, both expected to benefit significantly from AI infrastructure investments [3][5]. Summary by Themes Theme 1: AI-Driven Structural Growth - The AI supply chain is experiencing strong revenue growth and profit margin expansion, indicating a robust demand for infrastructure rather than a temporary investment craze [5]. - Capital expenditure from major cloud providers is expected to reach $367 billion in 2025, a 59% increase year-on-year, and further rise to $495 billion in 2026 [5][6]. - The demand for AI technology is expanding beyond large cloud service providers to include sovereign funds and enterprise clients [5][10]. Theme 2: China's Semiconductor Self-Sufficiency Trend - The self-sufficiency of the semiconductor supply chain in China is identified as a core theme with long-term growth potential, driven by geopolitical shifts and domestic policy support [3][38]. - Companies like Northern Huachuang (002371 CH) are positioned to benefit from this trend, with a target price of RMB 460 [39]. Theme 3: High-Yield Defensive Positioning - Major Chinese telecom operators are recommended as core defensive positions due to their strong balance sheets and attractive dividend yields, with China Mobile offering a yield of 6.0% [43][44]. Theme 4: Accelerating M&A Activity in the Semiconductor Industry - The report anticipates an acceleration in M&A activities within the semiconductor sector, with key players actively seeking to fill technology gaps and enhance supply chain resilience [46][47]. - Notable transactions in 2025 include Northern Huachuang's acquisition of Xinyuan Micro and other strategic consolidations aimed at strengthening market positions [47].

Macro Economic Overview - The credit recovery in China remains uneven, with the total social financing (TSF) in November exceeding market expectations due to a rebound in off-balance-sheet financing and corporate bond issuance, while government bond issuance stabilized [2] - The growth rate of RMB loans to the real sector continues to decline, indicating weak credit demand, with household loans shrinking for the first time in history, reflecting low housing demand and consumer sentiment [2] - Corporate loan financing has improved, driven mainly by bill financing and short-term loans, but new long-term loans remain weak, indicating that corporate financing is more reflective of short-term liquidity needs rather than capital expenditure [2] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,977, up 1.75% for the day and 29.50% year-to-date, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 1.87% [3] - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.41% to close at 3,889, with the Shenzhen Composite Index up 0.66% [3] - The US markets saw declines, with the Dow Jones down 0.51% and the S&P 500 down 1.07%, while the Nasdaq fell by 1.69% [3] Company Analysis - Zhongji Xuchuang (300308 CH) is identified as a direct beneficiary of global AI infrastructure capital expenditures, with a strong performance in 2025 expected for AI-related optical module suppliers [6] - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first nine months of 2025, with revenue up 44% and net profit up 90% year-on-year, and a gross margin increase of 9 percentage points to 43% in Q3 2025 [6] - The stock price of Zhongji Xuchuang has risen over 380% year-to-date, and the target price has been raised to 707 RMB, reflecting continued optimism in the AI sector and infrastructure investment cycles [6]

Macro Economic Overview - The central economic work conference indicates that China will adopt a moderately stimulating policy in 2026, with a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. Key focuses include expanding consumption, stabilizing investment, and preventing systemic risks [2] - The central bank is expected to lower the RRR by 50 basis points and the LPR by 20 basis points in 2026. The broad fiscal deficit may reach 8.5% of GDP, close to 8.4% in 2025 [2] Global Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,531, down 0.04% for the day but up 27.27% year-to-date. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,873, down 0.70% for the day and up 15.56% year-to-date [3] - The U.S. markets showed slight increases, with the Dow Jones up 1.34% and the S&P 500 up 0.21%. However, the Nasdaq fell by 0.25% [3] Industry Outlook Consumer Sector in China - The report maintains a "market perform" rating for the Chinese consumer sector in 2026, expecting overall retail sales growth of about 3.5%, slightly down from approximately 4% in 2025. Negative factors outweigh positive ones, including the withdrawal of subsidies and slowing export momentum [7][8] - Investment focus is on three consumption types: survival consumption emphasizing frugality, compensatory consumption focusing on affordable entertainment, and defensive assets like gold and high-dividend stocks [8] Specific Sub-sectors - The report is optimistic about the tea and coffee, trendy toys, clothing, and textile industries for 2026. It suggests that tea and coffee have structural growth potential despite a slowdown in growth rates [8][9] - The restaurant sector faces challenges from subsidy withdrawals and increased competition, while the sports goods sector may see some brand reversals but is still impacted by consumer downgrading and inventory pressures [9] Company Reports - Adobe reported a 10% year-on-year revenue increase to $6.19 billion in Q4 FY25, with non-GAAP net profit rising 8% to $2.29 billion, meeting expectations. The integration of AI technology is driving business growth, with AI-enabled business ARR exceeding one-third of total business [10] - J&T Express achieved profitability in Thailand after years of price wars, holding a market share of 32.8% in the first half of FY25. The management is confident about growth potential in the Southeast Asian market [10]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the technology sector, particularly focusing on AI computing infrastructure and end-side AI innovations [1][24]. Core Insights - The global technology industry is expected to experience a dual trend of differentiated terminal demand and accelerated AI innovation by 2026, driven by rapid iterations of AI large models [1][24]. - The report highlights two main investment themes: 1) AI computing infrastructure, where VR/ASIC architecture upgrades will drive growth in ODM and component suppliers; 2) End-side AI innovations, particularly in AI smartphones, PCs, and glasses, with companies like Luxshare Precision, Hontai Precision, BYD Electronics, Sunny Optical, AAC Technologies, and Xiaomi Group being key players [1][24]. Summary by Sections Server Market - The global server market is projected to be dominated by AI infrastructure investments, with AI server shipments expected to grow by 50% year-on-year to 2.32 million units in 2026 [2][25]. - The market will see a "GPU/ASIC dual-drive" pattern, with VR/ASIC architecture reshaping value and driving demand for connectors, cables, and power supply components [2][25]. Smartphone Market - Global smartphone shipments are anticipated to decline by 5% year-on-year to 1.18 billion units in 2026, primarily affecting low-end models due to macro uncertainties and rising storage costs [2][25]. - However, the high-end market remains resilient, with Apple expected to launch innovative products, including the first foldable iPhone and AI-driven devices [2][25]. AR/VR Market - The report forecasts that global AI glasses shipments will exceed 10 million units by 2026, marking a significant growth in the wearable technology sector [2][25]. - Major tech companies are accelerating their investments in AR/VR, with advancements in optical technologies expected to unlock further potential in the coming years [2][25]. PC and Automotive Electronics - The global PC market is expected to face challenges, with a projected 2% decline in shipments to 275 million units in 2026, influenced by the end of the Windows 11 upgrade cycle and rising storage costs [2][25]. - AI PCs are expected to penetrate the market significantly, with projections indicating that they will account for over 50% of shipments by 2026 [2][25]. Memory Price Impact - The report discusses the impact of rising memory prices on the technology supply chain, predicting that short-term pressures will affect mid-to-low-end consumer markets while high-end products may buffer the cost increases [27][30].

Macro Economic and Industry Outlook - The report indicates that China's economic deflationary pressure is expected to ease, but the momentum remains weak. Consumer inflation (CPI) rose from 0.2% to 0.7% in November, driven by food price increases and a low year-on-year base, marking a two-year high. Core CPI remained unchanged, while PPI showed a slight decline due to a high base last year, but month-on-month growth has increased for two consecutive months since 2023 [4][3] - The report forecasts that the CPI and PPI will recover from 0% and -2.7% in 2025 to 0.7% and -0.5% in 2026, respectively, indicating a gradual easing of deflationary pressures [4] Industry Outlook Technology - The global technology industry is expected to experience a dual trend of differentiated terminal demand and accelerated AI innovation by 2026. The report highlights that the demand for computing power will continue to be a core growth driver, with a focus on AI infrastructure and end-side AI innovations [4][5] - The report suggests monitoring two main lines: 1) AI computing infrastructure, where upgrades in VR/ASIC architecture will drive growth in ODM and component prices; 2) End-side AI innovations, particularly in AI smartphones and devices, with companies like Luxshare Precision, Hontai Precision, BYD Electronics, Sunny Optical, and Xiaomi Group being highlighted as key players [4][5] Servers - The global server market is projected to be dominated by AI infrastructure investments, with AI server shipments expected to grow by 50% year-on-year to 2.32 million units in 2026. The market will see a "GPU/ASIC dual-drive" pattern, with significant advancements in interconnects, cooling, and power supply components [5] Smartphones - The report anticipates a 5% decline in global smartphone shipments to 1.18 billion units in 2026, primarily affecting low-end models. However, the high-end market is expected to remain resilient due to AI innovations, with Apple set to launch several new products, including the first foldable iPhone [6] AR/VR - The report predicts that global AI glasses shipments will exceed 10 million units by 2026, marking the beginning of the smart glasses 2.0 era. Major tech companies are accelerating their investments in this sector, with a long-term outlook suggesting that AR glasses will gain significant market traction by 2030 [7] PC and Automotive Electronics - The global PC market is expected to face pressure due to the end of the Windows 11 upgrade cycle and rising storage costs, with a slight decline in shipments. However, AI PCs are projected to penetrate the market significantly, with over 50% of shipments being AI PCs by 2026. The report also highlights opportunities in the L4+ autonomous driving sector, particularly in high-voltage connectors and smart cockpit displays [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Vientiane Life (1209 HK) [1][9] Core Views - The shopping center segment has become the absolute profit pillar for the company, showing operational capabilities far exceeding peers. Retail sales from January to September increased by 20-25% year-on-year, compared to a 3.0% increase in social retail sales. During the National Day period, retail sales rose by 25%, significantly outperforming the 10.2% increase in key shopping districts in Shanghai [1][9] - The target price has been raised by 18% to HKD 51.84, based on an increase in the target PE multiple by 5% to 23x and rolling the valuation to 2026 [1][3][9] Financial Summary - Sales revenue (in million RMB) is projected to grow from 14,767 in FY23A to 21,172 in FY27E, with year-on-year growth rates of 22.9%, 15.4%, 6.5%, 8.5%, and 7.5% respectively [2][10] - Net profit (in million RMB) is expected to increase from 2,928.7 in FY23A to 5,169.5 in FY27E, with growth rates of 32.8%, 23.9%, 15.3%, 11.8%, and 10.4% [2][10] - The company maintains a 100% dividend payout ratio, with a projected dividend yield of 4.4%, making it attractive among state-owned enterprises [9][10] Business Segment Performance - The shopping center segment's gross profit contribution reached 56.3% in the first half of FY25, with expectations for revenue and gross profit growth rates of 18% and 27% respectively in FY25, driven by a significant increase in gross margin [9] - The property management segment is focusing on third-party expansion, with a target annual contract amount of approximately RMB 1 billion, having completed nearly RMB 800 million by September [9] Market Position - The company is expected to achieve a profit contribution from the shopping center segment of nearly 60% by FY25, reflecting a 5 percentage point increase [1][9] - The current market capitalization is approximately HKD 97.39 billion, with a free float of 27.7% [4][5]