2025 年 4 月 10 日 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 公司更新 北方华创 (002371 CH) 受益于半导体产业链加速本地化趋势的推动，2024 年业绩保持稳健 北方华创公布了 2024 年全年业绩快报及 2025 年一季度业绩预告。公司 2024 年 收入同比增长 35.1%至 298 亿元人民币（低于我们的预测 3.3%，符合彭博一致 预期）。强劲的收入增长得益于集成电路装备领域多款新产品取得突破，工艺覆 盖度及市场占有率显著增长。2024 年净利润同比增长 44.2%至 56 亿元人民币 （低于我们的预测/一致预期 3.2%/1.6%）。公司全年净利率提升至 18.8% （FY23 为 17.7%），主要由于运营效率的提高。2025 年一季度，公司预计收入 中值同比增长 39.3%至 82 亿元人民币（超出一致预期 5.5%），净利润中值同比 增长 40.3%至 16 亿元人民币（超出一致预期 12.5%）。一季度净利率中值预计 为 19.4%（相较去年同期为 19.2%）。我们重申对北方华创的"买入"评级，目 标价上调至 512 元人民币，基于 36 倍 FY25 预测市盈率 （此前为 ...

2025 年 4 月 10 日 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 公司更新 北方华创 (002371 CH) 受益于半导体产业链加速本地化趋势的推动，2024 年业绩保持稳健 北方华创公布了 2024 年全年业绩快报及 2025 年一季度业绩预告。公司 2024 年 收入同比增长 35.1%至 298 亿元人民币（低于我们的预测 3.3%，符合彭博一致 预期）。强劲的收入增长得益于集成电路装备领域多款新产品取得突破，工艺覆 盖度及市场占有率显著增长。2024 年净利润同比增长 44.2%至 56 亿元人民币 （低于我们的预测/一致预期 3.2%/1.6%）。公司全年净利率提升至 18.8% （FY23 为 17.7%），主要由于运营效率的提高。2025 年一季度，公司预计收入 中值同比增长 39.3%至 82 亿元人民币（超出一致预期 5.5%），净利润中值同比 增长 40.3%至 16 亿元人民币（超出一致预期 12.5%）。一季度净利率中值预计 为 19.4%（相较去年同期为 19.2%）。我们重申对北方华创的"买入"评级，目 标价上调至 512 元人民币，基于 36 倍 FY25 预测市盈率 （此前为 ...

2025 年 4 月 10 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 宏观点评 中国经济-贸易战 2.0 时期的政策 宏观及公司点评 全球市场观察 中美处于谈判之前 "胆小鬼游戏"阶段，情况可能会先恶化，然后再好转。中 美冲突可能会先升级，中国对美国关税做出强硬反应，包括反制关税、关键 原材料出口管制、削减对美投资、限制技术转让和人民币可控式贬值等，而 美国可能祭出定向金融制裁等威胁。 就经济影响而言，贸易战更像疫情而非金融危机，因为两者都是供给冲击。 贸易战对经济增长的负面影响应该小于疫情封锁，因为前者主要影响本国与 对手国之间的跨境贸易、投资和供应链活动，而后者则同时影响跨境和国内 经济活动。但贸易战影响的持续时间可能比疫情更长，因为战争会破坏互信， 并在国家之间播下仇恨种子。 为对冲贸易战影响，中国可能会降低存款准备金率和 LPR，并加大财政刺激 力度，以提振股市、房地产市场和消费需求。中国将继续推进科技自主自强， 以降低对脱钩断链风险的脆弱性。中国将加强与非美地区的经贸投资联系， 加快贸易地区多元化。尽管立场强硬，但中国将保持谈判之门敞开，一项全 面协议——或许包括扩大财政刺激、 ...

10 Apr 2025 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Alibaba (BABA US) Positive profitability growth of core e- commerce business likely to sustain We expect Alibaba to deliver in-line-with-consensus revenue growth and adjusted EBITA for 4QFY25 (March year-end). For core domestic e-commerce business, driven by healthy GMV growth and an increase in monetization rate aided by incremental technology service fee charges and the increase in penetration of Quanzhantui, Alibaba could sus ...

2025 年 4 月 9 日 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 行业研究 半导体 美国关税对中国半导体行业影响 美东时间 4 月 2 日，美国政府宣布了"对等关税"政策。4 月 4 日，中国发布 了对美的关税反制措施。虽然本次美国的"对等关税"不包括半导体（除半导 体设备），但我们认为后续美国有可能针对半导体行业出台额外的关税政策。 随着地缘风险加剧，我们认为中国半导体国产替代的趋势有望加速，半导体行 业将会受益，建议关注国产替代属性较强的公司：1）晶圆代工厂，如中芯国 际（981 HK）、华虹半导体（1347 HK），2）半导体设备制造，如北方华创 （002371 CH），3）芯片设计公司，尤其是涉及人工智能方向以及模拟半导 体领域的芯片企业，这些细分赛道龙头以美国公司为代表（英伟达、高通、德 州仪器等），下游国产替代意愿预期将加强，利好卓胜微（300782 CH）、贝 克微（2149 HK）等公司。同时，在全球经济、政策不确定性增加的背景下， 我们预期在未来的一两周内（如新关税将于 4 月 9 日生效），全球股市将面临 巨大波动。投资者可能会寻求安全港，而高股息防御策略将受到部分偏好保守 策略的投资人的 ...

2025 年 4 月 9 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 行业及公司点评 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 20,128 | 1.51 | 18.07 | | 恒生国企 | 7,431 | 2.31 | 28.81 | | 恒生科技 | 4,568 | 3.79 | 21.36 | | 上证综指 | 3,146 | 1.58 | 5.74 | | 深证综指 | 1,792 | 0.81 | -2.50 | | 深圳创业板 | 1,840 | 1.83 | -2.70 | | 美国道琼斯 | 37,646 | -0.84 | -0.12 | | 美国标普 500 | 4,983 | -1.57 | 4.46 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 15,268 | -2.15 | 1.71 | | 德国 DAX | 20,280 | 2.48 | 21.06 | | 法国 CAC | ...

2025 年 4 月 8 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 行业点评 全球市场观察 行业点评 科技行业 - 美国关税影响更新：市场波动后对相关问题的解答 继上周发布的报告之后，我们收到了若干投资者提问，我们的回答如下：1） "美国原产部件含量 20%"关税豁免：尽管美国芯片（如高通 SoC/英特尔 CPU/英伟达 GPU）占智能手机/PC/服务器进口产品关税价值的 20%以上， 但我们认为该定义是指在美制造而不是由美国制造，因此这些"美国制造" SoC/CPU/GPU 芯片除非在美国境内制造（如英特尔 CPU），否则不能豁免。 2）中国对美征收 34%关税的影响：我们认为国内 PC 供应链（如联想）可 敬请参阅尾页之免责声明 请到彭博 (搜索代码: RESP CMBR )或 http://www.cmbi.com.hk 下载更多研究报告 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | ...

Employment Data - In March, the U.S. added 228,000 non-farm jobs, significantly exceeding market expectations of 140,000[1] - The private sector saw job growth increase from 116,000 in February to 209,000 in March[4] - The unemployment rate rose slightly from 4.1% in February to 4.2% in March, with a minimal actual increase from 4.14% to 4.15%[4] Economic Outlook - Despite strong job growth, recession risks are rising due to potential tariff impacts and market signals indicating economic downturn[4] - Financial markets have issued recession warnings, with the S&P 500 index falling over 20%, marking a bear market[4] - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates in June or July, with another potential cut in September or December[1][4] Sector Performance - Job growth in the service sector surged from 90,000 to 197,000, driven by improved weather and the end of strikes in retail and healthcare[4] - Durable goods manufacturing jobs decreased, with mining and durable goods manufacturing losing 2,000 and 3,000 jobs respectively[4] - Government employment rebounded from 1,000 to 19,000, although federal government jobs decreased by 4,000[4]

Economic Indicators - The ISM Services PMI fell from 53.5 in February to 50.8 in March, below the market expectation of 52.9, indicating a slowdown in service sector expansion[2] - The ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped from 50.3 in February to 49 in March, also below the expected 49.5, signaling a return to contraction in the manufacturing sector[2] Demand and Employment Trends - The New Orders Index for services decreased from 52.2 to 50.4, nearing a nine-month low, reflecting weakened demand[2] - The Employment Index for services plummeted from 53.9 to 46.2, marking the first contraction in six months, indicating reduced hiring demand[2] Inflation and Price Pressures - The Price Index for services remained elevated, decreasing slightly from 62.6 to 60.9, while the Manufacturing Price Index surged from 62.4 to 69.4, the highest since June 2022, suggesting significant inflationary pressures[2] - The report indicates that inflation may rise initially due to supply cost increases but could decline later as economic slowdown and demand contraction take precedence[1] Market Outlook and Federal Reserve Actions - The report suggests a risk of stagflation in the short term, with potential for the S&P 500 to decline further, especially if it drops more than 20%[1] - The Federal Reserve may consider interest rate cuts in June or July, with another potential cut in September or December, in response to rising recession risks and market volatility[1]

Macro Economic Overview - The US economy shows signs of short-term stagflation risk as the March services PMI fell more than expected, with demand and employment weakening significantly while the price index continues to expand [2] - The trade war is expected to elevate the risk of stagflation followed by recession, as rising supply costs and inflation expectations outweigh the effects of demand contraction [2] - The S&P 500 index has issued a recession warning after dropping over 20%, leading to expectations that the Trump administration may slow down aggressive tariffs and government spending cuts while accelerating tax cuts and deregulation [2] Industry Insights Technology Sector - The new tariffs imposed by the US on imports are expected to have a limited direct impact on component suppliers, as most do not export directly to the US [5] - However, OEM/ODM companies will face direct impacts due to assembly operations primarily located in China, Vietnam, and India [5] - Apple is anticipated to be the most affected brand, with over 40% of its sales in the US, while Xiaomi's impact is expected to be minimal due to its limited revenue exposure in the US market [5] Pharmaceutical Sector - The pharmaceutical industry is experiencing weak overall growth, with average revenue growth at 4.2% and net profit growth at 1.0% for 142 listed companies [6] - The innovative drug sector is performing well, with average revenue growth of 36.8%, driven by favorable healthcare payment environments and overseas licensing revenues [6] - The medical device sector shows stability with an average revenue growth of 8.9% and net profit growth of 2.6%, despite ongoing price pressures from procurement policies [7] Automotive Sector - The automotive industry is witnessing a divergence in profitability, with companies like Xpeng and Geely expected to outperform due to strong sales and reduced discounts [8] - The average discount in the industry has narrowed slightly, indicating a potential stabilization in pricing strategies among leading brands [8] - New model launches during the Shanghai Auto Show are anticipated to boost sales in the second quarter of 2025 [8] Stock Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Geely Automobile, Xiaomi, and BYD Electronics, which are expected to benefit from current market conditions and potential recovery in their respective sectors [13]