Trading desk comments 交易台市场观点 Yesterday, GUOTJU priced 3yr floating rated bond at SOFR+60 (IPT at SOFR+115). In KR, DAESEC/SHINFN/NACF 26-30s were 1-2bps wider. HYNMTR Float 30 tightened 8bps, HYNMTR 5.3 29/HYNMTR 3.5 31 tightened 2-4bps. In Chinese IGs, BABA/HAOHUA 28-35s were unchanged to 1bps tighter, while MEITUA 30 widened 2bps. In financials, BBLTB/KBANK 31-40s tightened 2-4bps. NANYAN/BNKEA 30-34s tightened 2-3bps. In insurance, SHIKON/CATLIF 34-35s were unchanged to 1bp tighter. MYLIFE/NIPLIF 54-55s ...

2025 年 7 月 24 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 公司点评 全球市场观察 公司点评 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk 敬请参阅尾页之免责声明 请到彭博 (搜索代码: RESP CMBR )或 http://www.cmbi.com.hk 下载更多研究报告 1 美日达成协议、美欧接近达成协议和中美下周经贸谈判提振全球市场风险偏 好。港股延续上涨，资讯科技、可选消费与金融领涨，工业与公用事业收跌， 资金从新消费流向互联网板块，南向资金净卖出 13.2 亿港元。A 股冲高回落， 建筑材料、国防军工与机械设备领跌，非银金融、美容护理与家电收涨。投 资者关注中国反内卷政策进展，市场预期此轮去产能政策可能涉及行业更广， 包括钢铁、煤炭、建材、光伏、新能源设备、锂电池、生猪养殖等。 美日达成协议提振日股与日元，利好汽车等出口导向型行业，抵消石破茂辞 职传言的影响。美国对进口日本汽车的关税降至 15%，但对钢铝维持 50%关 税。日本 40 年国债拍卖需求创十四年新低。 美股再创新高，医疗、工业与能源领涨，公用事业与必选消费下跌。谷歌 2Q 业绩超预期， ...

CMBI Credit Commentary Fixed Income Daily Market Update 固定收益部市场日报 The Asset Asian G3 Bond Benchmark Review 2025 We hope you found our commentaries and ideas helpful. We seek to elevate our efforts and value-add further in the coming year. We highly appreciate your support to us in Sell-Side Analysts of the polls of "The Asset Asian G3 Bond Benchmark Review 2025". Thank you for your support! Trading desk comments 交易台市场观点 Yesterday, the long end of Chinese IGs such as BABA/JD/SINOPE 48-57s were 0.5-1.9pts hig ...

2025 年 7 月 23 日 1 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 行业点评 全球市场观察 行业点评 中国装备制造行业- 农村公路升级改造或将催生万亿市场 事件: 国务院昨日（7 月 22 日）正式发布《农村公路条例》。该条例于 6 月 底获国务院通过，并将于 9 月 15 日起施行。条例强调农村公路建设应以提 升路网质量为目标，促进城乡交通一体化发展。我们认为最重要的是，新建 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk 敬请参阅尾页之免责声明 请到彭博 (搜索代码: RESP CMBR )或 http://www.cmbi.com.hk 下载更多研究报告 中国股市上涨，雅江水电概念和预期去产能行业大涨。港股材料、综合与能 源板块领涨，医疗、金融与电讯跑输，南向资金净流入 27.17 亿港元。A 股 煤炭、建材、钢铁、有色涨幅居前，银行、计算机、通信、电子下跌。中国 能源局近日通知核查各地煤矿生产以保障供应有序，市场预期可能出台限产、 产能优化、限制低价倾销等政策，改变行业低价竞争困境。高层誓言反内卷 令投资者对中国去产能和走出通缩产生憧憬，商品期货大涨，国债期 ...

We hope you found our commentaries and ideas helpful. We seek to elevate our efforts and value-add further in the coming year. We highly appreciate your support to us in Sell-Side Analysts of the polls of "The Asset Asian G3 Bond Benchmark Review 2025". Thank you for your support! CMBI Credit Commentary Fixed Income Daily Market Update 固定收益部市场日报 The Asset Asian G3 Bond Benchmark Review 2025 22 Jul 2025 Glenn Ko, CFA 高志和 (852) 3657 6235 glennko@cmbi.com.hk Cyrena Ng, CPA 吳蒨瑩 (852) 3900 0801 cyrenang@cmbi.com ...

2025 年 7 月 22 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 行业点评 全球市场观察 行业点评 ◼ 中国装备制造行业 - 雅鲁藏布江水电站开工建设的潜在受益者 雅鲁藏布江水电站周末宣布正式开工，总投资额约 1.2 万亿元人民币。目前 项目具体细节有限，我们估计工程机械采购占工程金额约 20%，假设项目建 设期为 10 年，相当于每年工程机械采购额平均 240 亿元左右，占中国工程 机械全行业年产值（我们估计约 9,000 亿元，包括出口）的 2-3%。由于工程 机械需求处于项目周期的前期，因此项目前期的需求可能高于 2-3%，我们 敬请参阅尾页之免责声明 请到彭博 (搜索代码: RESP CMBR )或 http://www.cmbi.com.hk 下载更多研究报告 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk 1 ◼ 中国股市上涨，港股原材料、能源和地产建筑领涨，医疗与电信收跌，南向 资金净买入 70.51 亿港元。A 股建材、装饰、钢铁和有色领涨，银行、综合 和计算机收跌。总投资 1.2 万亿人民币的雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程开工，提 振水电、水泥、挖掘机等板块 ...

Company Analysis - Xtep (1368 HK) reported a slightly weaker performance in Q2 2025, but maintained its guidance for FY25, expecting overall sales growth and a net profit increase of over 10% [2][4] - The main brand of Xtep is projected to achieve mid-single-digit growth, while Saucony is expected to exceed 30% growth [2][4] - The management remains confident in achieving the annual guidance, supported by strong performance in the running category, which saw over 30% growth in professional products [4][5] Market Overview - The Chinese stock market showed mixed results, with healthcare, consumer staples, and utilities leading, while materials, energy, and financials lagged [3] - The report anticipates a volatile phase for the Chinese stock market in Q3, with weakening fundamentals in consumption and profits, but continued liquidity may lead to structural gains [3] - The US stock market saw gains led by financials, technology, and consumer staples, with TSMC's ADR hitting new highs due to strong AI chip demand [3] Retail Performance - Xtep's retail sales growth in Q2 2025 was slightly below expectations at low single digits, attributed to increased competition and weak e-commerce growth [5][6] - The company reported a healthy inventory turnover ratio of 4-4.5 months, indicating strong inventory management [6] - Retail sales growth improved in July, driven by summer demand and promotional activities, with e-commerce performance particularly strong [6] Strategic Initiatives - Xtep is progressing with its DTC (Direct-to-Consumer) transformation, planning to repurchase 100-200 stores in Q4 and 300-400 stores in FY26, with capital expenditure of approximately 400 million RMB [6] - The company is also upgrading its product and membership management systems to enhance DTC operational efficiency [6] Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xtep with a target price of HKD 7.20, based on a 14x FY25 forecast P/E ratio, which is attractive compared to the historical average of 15x [5][6]

Industry Insights - The Chinese fiscal and tax digitalization industry is experiencing growth driven by both government and enterprise initiatives, with the implementation of the fourth phase of the Golden Tax Project expected to connect approximately 300,000 medium and large enterprises to the tax bureau's direct connection system, leading to continuous industry expansion [3] - The market size for digitalized fiscal and tax-related transactions is projected to grow from 5.1 billion RMB in 2019 to 34.3 billion RMB by 2028, representing a CAGR of 36.5% from 2023 to 2028, significantly higher than the 9.2% CAGR from 2019 to 2023 [3] - The report highlights the potential for leading service providers to increase market share as the fourth phase of the Golden Tax Project accelerates in 2024, with Baiwang Co., Ltd. positioned as a leader in the industry [3] Company Analysis - Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) is expected to achieve revenue of 4.6 billion RMB in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.3%, with non-GAAP net profit projected at 738 million RMB, up 12.4%, aligning with previous forecasts and Bloomberg consensus [4][5] - Anta (2020 HK) has seen retail growth in July 2025 improve compared to Q2, although the brand's performance remains below expectations, with management maintaining a high single-digit growth target for FY25 despite potential short-term impacts from business reforms [6][7] - The company anticipates a controlled cost environment in FY25, aided by reasonable advertising and marketing expenditures, as well as increased bargaining power in rental negotiations due to rising vacancy rates [6] - Shengyi Technology (600183 CH) expects a net profit increase of 50%-56% to 1.4-1.45 billion RMB in H1 2025, driven by strong sales of copper-clad laminate products and PCB sales, which are projected to grow by 85%-97% year-on-year [9] - Zhongji Xuchuang (300308 CH) forecasts a net profit of 3.6-4.4 billion RMB for H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 53%-87%, supported by strong demand for AI infrastructure and improved product mix [10]

Inflation Trends - US inflation rebounded slightly in June, with CPI rising from 2.4% to 2.7% year-on-year[1] - Core CPI increased from 2.8% to 2.9% year-on-year, while month-on-month growth rose from 0.13% to 0.23%[6] - Food prices maintained a month-on-month growth of 0.3%, while energy prices rebounded from -1% to 0.9%[6] Market Expectations - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have slightly decreased, with the probability of no change in July rising to 96%[1] - The anticipated rate cut for the year has decreased from 48 basis points (bp) to 44 bp[1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain rates in July, with potential cuts in September and either October or December[7] Employment and Demand - The job market shows signs of weakening demand, influenced by seasonal hiring patterns[1] - New and used car prices have declined, indicating reduced consumer demand[6] - Core service prices have shown a slight rebound, particularly in healthcare and leisure services, influenced by immigration policies[6] Future Projections - Inflation is expected to see a slight rebound in Q3 before gradually declining[1] - The CPI month-on-month growth is projected to peak around 0.4% in August-September[7] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is anticipated to become more pronounced, particularly in core goods[6]

2025 年 7 月 15 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 宏观经济及公司点评 2025 年 7 月 15 日 全球市场观察 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk 敬请参阅尾页之免责声明 请到彭博 (搜索代码: RESP CMBR )或 http://www.cmbi.com.hk 下载更多研究报告 1 周一（7 月 14 日）中国股市上涨，机器人板块爆发，医药股强势反弹，公 用事业、能源与材料涨幅居前，地产、金融与通讯服务下跌。大宗商品普涨， 国债期货下跌，人民币走平。 中国 6 月社融存量、信贷与 M1 增速反弹，显示中国经济延续复苏，2 季度 经济数据可能好于预期，3 季度货币政策宽松的可能性下降，降准降息可能 推迟至 4 季度。6 月商品出口同比增长 5.8%好于预期，进口增长 1.1%， Labubu带动玩具出口破百亿，稀土出口创 2009年来最高，铁矿石进口创年 内新高，钢铁二季度出口创纪录。 字节跳动将开发一种轻便型混合现实设备，与 Meta 公司计划 2027 年推出 的一款产品类似。京东健康首个线下医美自营诊所在北京亦庄开业，第二家 ...