30 Jan 2026 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Zenergy (3677 HK) Zenergy (3677 HK) - Higher Higher earnings visibility amid better client hike mix, possible battery price hike Maintain BUY. We revise up Zenergy's FY25E net profit forecast by 4% to RMB591mn with better product mix than we had expected. Such trend would continue in FY26E to benefit Zenergy's revenue and gross margin. We expect GAC Toyota to surpass Leapmotor (9863 HK, BUY) to be Zenergy's largest revenue contr ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for ServiceNow, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [17]. Core Insights - ServiceNow reported a total revenue increase of 21% YoY to US$3.57 billion in 4Q25, aligning with Bloomberg consensus estimates. Non-GAAP operating income grew by 26% YoY to US$1.10 billion, exceeding consensus by 3% due to AI-enhanced efficiencies and disciplined expense control [1]. - For FY26E, management guided subscription revenue to increase by 20.5%-21% YoY to US$15.53-15.57 billion, with a further 100bps expansion of both non-GAAP operating profit and free cash flow margin to 32% and 36%, respectively, driven by AI-enabled efficiency gains [1]. - The AI product momentum remains strong, with Now Assist annual contract value (ACV) surpassing US$600 million in 4Q25, ahead of the previous target of US$500 million and on track to reach US$1 billion by FY26-end [1]. - The target price for ServiceNow has been lowered to US$215.00 based on a 40x FY26E EV/EBITDA, down from US$236.00 based on a 45x FY26E EV/EBITDA, reflecting sector valuation impacts due to increased competition from AI and LLM service providers [1][12]. Financial Summary - For FY26E, total revenue is projected at US$15.973 billion, with adjusted net profit expected to reach US$4.518 billion, resulting in an adjusted EPS of US$4.36 [2]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately US$122.22 billion, with a current share price of US$116.73, indicating an upside potential of 84.2% to the target price [3][4]. - The non-GAAP operating profit margin expanded by 1.4 percentage points YoY to 30.9% in 4Q25, attributed to improved efficiency and disciplined expense control [9]. Growth Projections - Subscription revenue is expected to grow by 20.3% in FY26E, with adjusted net profit growth projected at 23.2% [15]. - The company anticipates a revenue growth rate of 20.5%-21% for FY26E, with further growth expected in subsequent years [1][14]. Valuation - The valuation of ServiceNow is set at US$215.00 per share based on a target EV/EBITDA of 40x for FY26E, which is at a premium to the sector average of 29x, justified by the strong earnings growth outlook [12][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Microsoft, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [19]. Core Insights - Microsoft reported 2QFY26 results with revenue of US$81.3 billion, reflecting a 16.7% year-over-year growth, which is 1.5% better than both the forecast and Bloomberg consensus estimates [1]. - Operating income increased by 20.9% year-over-year to US$38.3 billion, exceeding forecasts, driven by strong performance in the Productivity and Business Processes (PBP) and Intelligent Cloud (IC) segments [1]. - The target price has been revised down by 3% to US$614.6, translating into a price-to-earnings ratio of 35x for FY26E and 31x for FY27E [1][2]. Financial Performance - Revenue growth in the Intelligent Cloud segment was 28.8% year-over-year, contributing US$32.9 billion, which accounted for 40.5% of total revenue [7]. - Azure and other cloud services revenue grew by 39% year-over-year, aligning with consensus expectations [7]. - The Productivity and Business Processes segment generated US$34.1 billion in revenue, up 15.9% year-over-year, representing 42.0% of total revenue [7]. Capital Expenditure and Outlook - Capital expenditures, including financial leases, reached US$37.5 billion for 2QFY26, up 66% year-over-year, with a significant portion allocated to short-lived assets like GPUs and CPUs [7]. - Management anticipates a decrease in capital expenditures in 3QFY26 due to normal variability in cloud infrastructure buildouts [7]. Earnings Summary - For FY26E, revenue is projected at US$327.7 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 16.3% [8]. - Net profit is expected to reach US$129.5 billion, reflecting a 27.1% year-over-year increase [8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for FY26E is estimated at US$17.41, with a P/E ratio of 27.7x [8]. Share Performance and Market Data - The current market capitalization of Microsoft is approximately US$3.59 trillion, with an average turnover of US$12.08 billion over the last three months [3]. - The stock has a 52-week high of US$542.07 and a low of US$354.56 [3].

CMBI Credit Commentary Fixed Income Daily Market Update 固定收益部市场日报 Trading desk comments 交易台市场观点 Cyrena Ng, CPA 吳蒨瑩 (852) 3900 0801 cyrenang@cmbi.com.hk Yujing Zhang 张钰婧 (852) 3900 0830 zhangyujing@cmbi.com.hk PLEASE READ THE AUTHOR CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE CMBI Fixed Income fis@cmbi.com.hk 1 AT1s were down 0.1pt this morning amid selling flows. We saw better selling on MEITUA, but the spread was unchanged. VNKRLE 27-29 rose another 1.5-1.7pts. LNGFOR 28 edged 0.4pt higher. YPCORP ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Sunny Optical, with a new target price (TP) of HK$91.38, implying a potential upside of 45.3% from the current price of HK$62.90 [3][14]. Core Insights - Sunny Optical has announced a positive profit alert for FY25E, projecting a net profit growth of 70-75% year-over-year, driven by high-end specification upgrades, improved product mix, and investment income from a deal with Goertek Optical Tech [1][9]. - For FY26, the company expects revenue growth to be supported by trends in smart driving, AI/AR glasses, and high-end camera specifications, which will help offset weaknesses in the smartphone segment due to memory cost pressures [1][9]. - The report indicates a slight reduction in FY26-27E EPS estimates by 1-4% to account for headwinds in the smartphone industry [1][9]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY25E are set at RMB 42,056 million, with a year-over-year growth of 9.8%. For FY26E, revenue is expected to decline slightly to RMB 41,582 million, followed by a recovery to RMB 45,468 million in FY27E [2][22]. - Net profit is forecasted to reach RMB 4,610 million in FY25E, a 70.8% increase year-over-year, but is expected to decrease to RMB 3,909 million in FY26E before rebounding to RMB 4,699 million in FY27E [2][22]. - The report highlights a projected EPS of RMB 4.24 for FY25E, with consensus estimates at RMB 3.25 for the same period [2][11]. Valuation - The new target price of HK$91.38 is derived from a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation methodology, applying a target P/E multiple of 23.4x FY26E EPS, reflecting the company's diversified business model and growth potential across various segments [3][14][16]. - The report assigns different P/E multiples to various business segments, with 23x for camera modules and handset lenses, and 25x for vehicle lenses, reflecting their respective market positions and growth prospects [15][16].

Macro Commentary - Chinese policymakers are signaling a strategic shift to prioritize domestic demand as the primary economic task by 2026, addressing issues like overcapacity, deflationary pressures, and weak confidence [2] - Demand-side policies will focus on stabilizing the real estate market and boosting consumption through measures such as lowering mortgage rates and purchasing unsold properties [2] - Supply-side policies will aim at structural adjustments, enhancing industry concentration by curbing capacity expansion and encouraging mergers and acquisitions [6] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 27,968, up 0.51% for the day and 9.12% year-to-date, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 1.00% [3] - The Chinese stock market saw gains, particularly in real estate, consumer staples, and financial sectors, with net inflows of 4.374 billion HKD from southbound funds [5] - The U.S. stock market experienced a pullback, with technology, consumer discretionary, and materials sectors leading the decline, while communication services, real estate, and energy sectors gained [5] Company Insights - Meta (META US) reported a 24% year-on-year revenue increase to 59.9 billion USD for Q4 2025, driven by AI-enhanced advertising growth, and provided a revenue guidance of 53.5-56.5 billion USD for Q1 2026 [6] - Microsoft (MSFT US) achieved 16.7% revenue growth to 81.3 billion USD in Q2 FY26, with strong performance in productivity and business processes, and provided a target price of 614.6 USD [6] - ServiceNow (NOW US) reported a 21% revenue increase to 3.57 billion USD for Q4 2025, with a positive outlook for FY26 driven by AI efficiencies, maintaining a target price of 215.0 USD [7][8] - Sunny Optical Technology (2382 HK) expects a 70-75% increase in net profit for 2025, driven by high-end camera upgrades and growth in automotive and smart glasses segments, with a target price of 91.38 HKD [8]

招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 27,827 | 2.58 | 8.57 | | 恒生国企 | 9,512 | 2.89 | 6.72 | | 恒生科技 | 5,900 | 2.53 | 6.96 | | 上证综指 | 4,151 | 0.27 | 4.60 | | 深证综指 | 2,718 | -0.01 | 7.39 | | 深圳创业板 | 3,324 | -0.57 | 3.76 | | 美国道琼斯 | 49,016 | 0.02 | 1.98 | | 美国标普 500 | 6,978 | -0.01 | 1.94 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 23,857 | 0.17 | 2.65 | | 德国 DAX | 24,823 | -0.29 | 1.36 | | 法国 CAC | 8,067 | -1.06 | -1.02 | | 英国富时 100 | 10,154 | -0.52 | 2.25 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating on New Oriental, indicating a strong core educational business, solid margin expansion trend, and attractive shareholder return [1][18]. Core Insights - New Oriental's 2QFY26 results exceeded expectations, with net revenue increasing by 15% YoY to US$1.19 billion, surpassing Bloomberg consensus estimates by 3% [1]. - Non-GAAP operating income surged by 207% YoY to US$89.13 million, significantly beating the consensus estimate of US$54.87 million, driven by enhanced operational efficiency [1]. - The management anticipates net revenue growth of 11-14% YoY for 3QFY26E, raising the FY26E net revenue forecast to US$5.29-5.49 billion, reflecting solid momentum in new educational and high-school tutoring businesses [1]. Financial Performance - Revenue projections for FY26E are set at US$5.47 billion, with a YoY growth of 11.6%, and adjusted net profit is expected to reach US$594.2 million [2]. - The report forecasts a continued revenue growth trajectory, with FY27E and FY28E revenues projected at US$5.99 billion and US$6.46 billion, respectively [2]. - Non-GAAP operating profit margin (OPM) is expected to expand to 12.8% in 3QFY26E, up from 7.5% in 2QFY26, indicating improved operational efficiency [9][10]. Valuation - The target price for New Oriental is set at US$78.00, reflecting a 32.3% upside from the current price of US$58.95 [3]. - The valuation is derived from a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) analysis, with the educational and consulting business valued at US$75.00 based on a 25x FY26E PE ratio [12][13]. - The report highlights a strong growth outlook for the educational segment, with a revenue CAGR of 10% expected from FY26 to FY28 [13].

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 27,127, up 1.35% for the day and 5.84% year-to-date [1] - The Hang Seng Financial Index rose by 2.51% for the day and 5.88% year-to-date, indicating strong performance in the financial sector [2] - Southbound capital recorded a net sell of 635 million HKD, with notable sell-offs in China Mobile, Zijin Mining, and SMIC, while Tencent and Longi Green Energy saw significant net buying [3] Group 2: Company Analysis - Sanofi - Sanofi's collaboration with Pfizer on the 707/PF'4404 (PD-1/VEGF) has advanced rapidly, with plans to initiate four global Phase III clinical trials by 2026 covering five major indications [4] - The dual antibody PD-(L)1/VEGF is expected to become a cornerstone in next-generation tumor immunotherapy, with Sanofi leveraging its internal pipeline for competitive advantage [5] - Sanofi's robust pipeline includes multiple candidates, with the potential for early assets to be licensed out as clinical data matures [6] Group 3: Financial Projections - The target price for Sanofi is set at 37.43 HKD, based on a DCF model with a WACC of 10.11% and a perpetual growth rate of 2.0% [7] - The company is estimated to have net cash of approximately 13 billion HKD, supporting its growth and development initiatives [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 37.43, representing a potential upside of 55.5% from the current price of HKD 24.08 [2][8]. Core Insights - Pfizer is rapidly advancing the global clinical development of 707/PF'4404 (PD-1/VEGF), with plans to initiate four Phase III trials in 2026 targeting five major indications. This development is expected to position Pfizer favorably in the competitive landscape of next-generation cancer immunotherapy [1][8]. - The collaboration between Pfizer and the company is anticipated to unlock significant global value for 707/PF'4404, serving as a key catalyst for the company's upward trajectory [1][8]. - The company is also increasing its R&D investments, with multiple pipelines expected to yield clinical data soon, enhancing the potential for external licensing opportunities [8][12]. Financial Summary - For FY23A, the company reported sales revenue of RMB 7,816 million, with a year-on-year growth of 13.8%. Projections for FY24A and FY25E are RMB 9,108 million and RMB 17,972 million, respectively, indicating a significant growth trajectory [2][15]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for FY23A was RMB 1,549 million, reflecting a decline of 19.1% year-on-year, but is expected to rebound to RMB 2,090 million in FY24A and surge to RMB 9,741 million in FY25E, marking a growth of 366.0% [2][15]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for FY25E is projected at RMB 3.84, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 5.6, indicating a strong valuation relative to earnings [2][15]. Market Position and Shareholder Structure - The company's market capitalization stands at HKD 61,115.2 million, with a 52-week stock price range of HKD 35.90 to HKD 6.01 [3][4]. - Major shareholders include TMF (Cayman) Ltd. with 22.8% and Decade Sunshine with 19.6%, indicating a concentrated ownership structure [4]. Clinical Development and Pipeline - The report highlights the competitive landscape for PD-(L)1/VEGF therapies, with Pfizer's strategy of combining IO with ADCs (antibody-drug conjugates) as a unique advantage [1][8]. - The company has several promising candidates in its pipeline, including 705 (PD-1/HER2) and 706 (PD-1/PD-L1), which are currently in Phase II trials in China [8][12]. Valuation and Forecast Adjustments - The report adjusts the financial forecasts for FY25E and FY26E, reflecting a slight increase in revenue expectations due to the anticipated success of the 707 program [12][13]. - The DCF valuation analysis estimates a per-share value of HKD 37.43, based on a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 10.11% and a perpetual growth rate of 2.0% [13][14].