Investment Rating - The report maintains a HOLD rating for China Tower with a new target price of HK$13.7, reflecting an upside potential of 11.9% from the current price of HK$12.24 [1][3]. Core Insights - China Tower's FY24 results were in line with expectations, showing a revenue increase of 4.0% YoY to RMB97.8 billion and a net profit increase of 10.0% to RMB10.7 billion [1]. - The Tower segment, which constitutes 77% of total revenue, saw a modest growth of 0.9% YoY, while the DAS and Two Wings segments experienced double-digit growth rates of 18% and 16% YoY, respectively [1][6]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its capital structure through a stock consolidation (1 for 10) announced in February 2025 [1]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for FY24 was RMB97.8 billion, with projected revenues of RMB101.8 billion for FY25 and RMB104.4 billion for FY26, indicating a growth rate of 4.1% and 2.5% respectively [2][14]. - Net profit for FY24 was RMB10.7 billion, with estimates of RMB12.1 billion for FY25 and RMB13.7 billion for FY26, reflecting growth rates of 13.0% and 13.2% respectively [2][14]. - The EBITDA for FY24 was RMB66.6 billion, with projections of RMB69.1 billion for FY25 and RMB71.2 billion for FY26 [2][14]. Segment Analysis - The Tower business is expected to remain stable, with a projected low single-digit growth for China telcos from 2025 to 2027 [6]. - The DAS segment is forecasted to grow by 14.0% YoY in 2025 and 11.6% YoY in 2026, driven by market opportunities such as signal strength upgrade projects [6]. - The Two Wings segment, which includes smart tower and energy solutions, is anticipated to grow by 17.5% YoY in 2025 and 16.2% YoY in 2026, bolstered by projects like national disaster alerts [6]. Valuation Metrics - The new target price of HK$13.7 is based on a 4.0x FY25 EV/EBITDA, which aligns with the company's 5-year average forward EV/EBITDA [1][6]. - The report indicates a dividend payout ratio of 76% for 2024, up from previous years, suggesting a commitment to returning value to shareholders [6].

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company to "Buy" with a target price of RMB 146.81, up from the previous target price of RMB 115.00, indicating a potential upside of 14.7% from the current price of RMB 128.00 [1][3]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue growth of 32.4% year-on-year to RMB 17.9 billion for the fiscal year 2024, exceeding both the report's and Bloomberg's consensus estimates [1][2]. - Net profit increased by 34.3% year-on-year to RMB 1.9 billion, aligning with the report's forecast but falling short of Bloomberg's consensus by 2% [1][2]. - The gross margin improved to 24.8% from 23.4% in 2023, primarily due to recovering demand, although partially offset by the ramp-up of new factory capacity [1][2]. - Revenue forecasts for fiscal years 2025 and 2026 have been raised by 15% and 21%, respectively, driven by increased capacity utilization, accelerated capital expenditures from domestic cloud vendors, and faster-than-expected penetration of high-end autonomous driving applications [1][2][6]. - Net profit forecasts for fiscal years 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted upward by 12% and 16%, respectively, despite a slight decline in gross margin due to rising production costs associated with the new Guangzhou factory [1][2]. Financial Summary - For FY24, the company expects sales revenue of RMB 21.6 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 20.3% [2][10]. - The gross margin is projected to be 25.1% in FY25 and gradually increase to 26.2% by FY27 [2][10]. - Net profit is forecasted to reach RMB 2.4 billion in FY25, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 29.4% [2][10]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be RMB 4.74 in FY25, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 27.0 [2][10]. Business Segment Performance - PCB business revenue grew by 30% to RMB 10.5 billion, driven by strong demand from data centers and automotive sectors [6]. - The gross margin for PCB business is expected to improve to 31.6% in FY24, benefiting from enhanced capacity utilization and an optimized product mix [6]. - The baseboard business saw a revenue increase of 37.5% to RMB 3.2 billion, although margins were pressured due to rising raw material costs and production ramp-up challenges [6]. Market Position - The company is positioned to benefit from the trend of self-sufficiency in the semiconductor supply chain in China, leveraging its leading position in the PCB market and expansion of FC-BGA substrate production lines [6].

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company to "Buy" with a target price of RMB 146.81, up from a previous target price of RMB 115.00, indicating a potential upside of 14.7% from the current stock price of RMB 128.00 [1][3]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue growth of 32.4% year-on-year to RMB 17.9 billion for the fiscal year 2024, exceeding both the report's and Bloomberg's consensus estimates [1][2]. - Net profit increased by 34.3% year-on-year to RMB 1.9 billion, aligning with the report's forecast but slightly below Bloomberg's consensus [1][2]. - The gross margin improved to 24.8% from 23.4% in 2023, primarily due to recovering demand, although partially offset by the ramp-up of new factory capacity [1]. - Revenue forecasts for fiscal years 2025 and 2026 have been raised by 15% and 21% respectively, driven by increased capacity utilization, accelerated capital expenditures from domestic cloud providers, and faster-than-expected penetration of high-end autonomous driving applications [1][2]. - Net profit forecasts for fiscal years 2025 and 2026 have also been increased by 12% and 16% respectively, despite a slight decline in gross margin due to rising production costs [1]. Financial Summary - For FY24, the company expects sales revenue to reach RMB 21.6 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 20.3% [2]. - The gross margin is projected to be 25.1% in FY25, with net profit expected to be RMB 2.4 billion, reflecting a 29.4% year-on-year growth [2][10]. - The company’s PCB business revenue is anticipated to grow by 25% in 2025, supported by strong demand in data centers and automotive sectors [6]. - The baseboard business is expected to see an 18% revenue increase in 2025, driven by rapid growth in storage product revenues [6]. Market Position - The company is positioned to benefit from the trend of self-sufficiency in the semiconductor industry, leveraging its leading position in the PCB market and expansion of FC-BGA substrate production lines [6].

2025 年 3 月 17 日 | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 23,960 | 2.12 | 40.55 | | 恒生国企 | 8,878 | 2.75 | 53.90 | | 恒生科技 | 5,881 | 2.31 | 56.23 | | 上证综指 | 3,420 | 1.81 | 14.95 | | 深证综指 | 2,109 | 2.05 | 14.77 | | 深圳创业板 | 2,227 | 2.80 | 17.73 | | 美国道琼斯 | 41,488 | 1.65 | 10.08 | | 美国标普 500 | 5,639 | 2.13 | 18.22 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 17,754 | 2.61 | 18.27 | | 德国 DAX | 22,987 | 1.86 | 37.22 | | 法国 CAC | 8,028 | 1.13 | 6.43 | | 英国富时 100 | 8,632 | 1.05 | 11.63 | | 日本日经 225 ...

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company to "Buy" with a target price of RMB 146.81, indicating a potential upside of 14.7% from the current price of RMB 128 [1][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a robust performance for the fiscal year 2024, with revenue increasing by 32.4% year-on-year to RMB 17.9 billion, surpassing estimates [1]. - Net profit also saw a significant rise of 34.3% year-on-year to RMB 1.9 billion, aligning with estimates but slightly below consensus [1]. - The gross profit margin improved to 24.8%, up from 23.4% in the previous fiscal year, driven by recovering demand despite the impact of new factory expansions [1]. - Revenue forecasts for fiscal years 2025 and 2026 have been raised by 15% and 21% respectively, reflecting higher utilization rates and increased capital expenditures from domestic cloud companies [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from the rapid penetration of high-end autonomous driving systems, which will drive growth in automotive PCB revenue [1]. Revenue and Profitability - PCB sales increased by 30% to RMB 10.5 billion, driven by strong demand from data centers and automotive sectors, despite a decline in the telecommunications industry [2]. - The gross profit margin for PCBs improved to 31.6% in fiscal year 2024, up from 26.6% in fiscal year 2023, reflecting higher capacity utilization and an optimized product mix [2]. - The PCBA segment also experienced a year-on-year growth of 33.2%, benefiting from strong performance in data center and automotive sales [2]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from RMB 17.9 billion in fiscal year 2024 to RMB 28.2 billion by fiscal year 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28.5% during the period [4]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 1.9 billion in fiscal year 2024 to RMB 3.7 billion by fiscal year 2027, with a CAGR of 28.5% [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from RMB 3.66 in fiscal year 2024 to RMB 7.24 by fiscal year 2027 [4]. Market Position and Outlook - The company is positioned to outperform expectations in the PCB market, leveraging its leading position and increased capacity in FC-BGA substrates [3]. - The report suggests that the company will benefit from the trend of localization within the industry, enhancing its competitive edge [3].

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of Shennan Circuit to BUY, with a new target price of RMB146.81, up from the previous RMB115.00, indicating a potential upside of 14.7% from the current price of RMB128.00 [1][3]. Core Insights - Shennan Circuit reported solid FY24 results, with revenue increasing by 32.4% year-on-year to RMB17.9 billion, surpassing estimates by 2% and 7% compared to internal estimates and Bloomberg consensus, respectively. Net profit rose by 34.3% year-on-year to RMB1.9 billion, aligning with internal estimates but falling 2% short of Bloomberg consensus [1][2]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) improved to 24.8% in FY24 from 23.4% in FY23, reflecting a recovery in demand, although this was partially offset by the ramp-up of a new factory [1]. - Revenue forecasts for FY25 and FY26 have been revised upwards by 15% and 21%, respectively, due to higher utilization rates, increased revenue from data center and AI-related sectors, and better growth in automotive PCB revenue [1][10]. - Net profit estimates for FY25 and FY26 have also been increased by 12% and 16%, respectively, despite lower GPM estimates due to ongoing capacity ramp-up costs [1][10]. Financial Performance Summary - FY24 revenue reached RMB17,907 million, with a year-on-year growth of 32.4%. The projected revenue for FY25 is RMB21,551 million, reflecting a growth of 20.3% [2][13]. - The net profit for FY24 was RMB1,878 million, with a year-on-year growth of 34.3%. The forecast for FY25 is RMB2,429 million, indicating a growth of 29.4% [2][13]. - The gross margin is expected to stabilize at around 25.1% for FY25, with a gradual increase to 26.2% by FY27 [2][13]. Market Position and Growth Drivers - Shennan Circuit is positioned as a key beneficiary of domestic localization trends, particularly in the PCB market, with significant growth expected in the data center and automotive sectors [1][7]. - The PCB sales grew by 30% year-on-year to RMB10.5 billion, driven by strong demand in data centers and automotive applications, despite a decline in telecom-related sales [7]. - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing capital expenditure by domestic cloud companies and the faster-than-anticipated penetration of high-end autonomous driving systems [1][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Adobe, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [18]. Core Insights - Adobe's 1QFY25 results showed total revenue of US$5.71 billion, up 11% YoY in constant currency, and non-GAAP net income of US$2.22 billion, up 9% YoY, both in line with consensus estimates [1]. - The company expects its AI standalone products' annual recurring revenue (ARR) to double by the end of FY25, contributing approximately 1% to total revenue [1]. - Adobe's Digital Media revenue increased by 11% YoY to US$4.23 billion in 1QFY25, driven by strong growth in Acrobat and Creative offerings [6]. - The company has slightly lowered its FY25-27 earnings forecast by 0-1% and adjusted its target price to US$629.00 based on a 32x FY25E non-GAAP PE [1][9]. Financial Performance - For FY25E, Adobe's revenue is projected to be US$23.43 billion, with a YoY growth of 8.9% [2]. - Adjusted net profit for FY25E is estimated at US$8.79 billion, with an adjusted EPS of US$19.66 [2]. - The company reported a non-GAAP operating profit margin of 46.1% for FY25E, slightly down from previous estimates [7]. Revenue Breakdown - Adobe's Digital Experience revenue grew by 9% YoY to US$1.41 billion in 1QFY25, primarily due to strong demand for the Adobe Experience platform [6]. - The company has begun to provide a breakdown of revenue streams by customer groups to enhance its customer-focused strategy [6]. Shareholder Actions - Adobe accelerated its share repurchase program, buying back 7.0 million shares for US$3.25 billion in 1QFY25, which is about 2% of its market cap [6]. - The company plans to continue share repurchases if it believes the stock is undervalued [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Weibo, with a target price (TP) of US$14.50, down from the previous TP of US$15.00, indicating a potential upside of 39.2% from the current price of US$10.42 [3][6]. Core Insights - Weibo's 4Q24 results showed net revenue of US$457 million, largely flat year-over-year (YoY) on a constant currency basis, and non-GAAP net income grew by 40% YoY to US$107 million, exceeding consensus estimates by 9% due to effective operational expense control [1][6]. - The overall advertiser sentiment for FY25 remains mixed, with certain sectors like 3C and e-commerce increasing ad budgets due to national subsidy programs, while others like cosmetics and personal care are cautious [1][6]. - The forecast for Weibo's total revenue in FY25 is a growth of 2% YoY on a constant currency basis, with a reduction in FY25-26E earnings forecast by 3-5% due to a soft revenue outlook and increased AI investments [1][6]. Financial Performance - FY24 net revenue was US$1.75 billion, up 1% YoY on a constant currency basis, while advertising revenue in 4Q24 declined by 3% YoY to US$386 million [1][6]. - VAS (Value-Added Services) revenue increased by 18% YoY to US$71 million in 4Q24, driven by membership and game-related revenue growth [6]. - Monthly Active Users (MAUs) declined by 1% YoY to 590 million in December 2024, but the Daily Active Users (DAU) to MAU ratio improved to 44.1% [6]. Revenue and Profitability Forecast - The revenue forecast for FY25 is US$1.77 billion, with adjusted net profit expected to be US$481 million, reflecting a slight decrease from previous estimates [2][7]. - The adjusted net profit margin is projected to be 27.2% for FY25, down from 27.3% in FY24, primarily due to increased investments in AI [6][12]. - The report anticipates a gross margin of 79.0% for FY25, consistent with previous years [7][12]. Shareholding and Market Data - Major shareholders include Sina with 37.3% and Alibaba with 28.9% [4]. - The market capitalization of Weibo is approximately US$2.45 billion, with an average trading volume of US$13.4 million over the past three months [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for CGN Mining with a target price of HK$2.36, indicating a potential upside of 55.5% from the current price of HK$1.52 [3]. Core Insights - CGN Mining's profit alert indicates a net profit drop of HK$130-180 million year-on-year for 2024, primarily due to a one-off dividend withholding tax and a fair value loss from share swaps related to Paladin Energy. However, excluding these items, the pretax profit from continuing operations is expected to grow by HK$230-280 million year-on-year, translating to a growth rate of 41-50% [1]. - The company is set to release its full-year results on March 20, 2025, and will host an analyst meeting on March 21, 2025 [1][6]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from HK$7,363 million in FY23 to HK$10,992 million in FY24, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 49.3% [2]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to decline from HK$497.1 million in FY23 to HK$443.4 million in FY24, a decrease of 10.8% [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to decrease from 6.54 HK$ cents in FY23 to 5.83 HK$ cents in FY24 [2]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 26.1x in FY24, decreasing to 17.1x in FY25 [2]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to decline from 13.8% in FY23 to 10.8% in FY24, before recovering to 14.6% in FY25 [2]. Share Performance - The market capitalization of CGN Mining is approximately HK$11,553 million, with an average turnover of HK$72.3 million over the past three months [3]. - The stock has experienced a 1-month decline of 2.6% and a 3-month decline of 7.9% [5]. Shareholding Structure - The major shareholder is China General Nuclear Power Corporation, holding 56.9% of the shares, followed by China Chengtong Holding Group with 10.0% [4].

` 每日投资策略 行业及公司点评 全球市场观察 行业点评 必选消费行业 - 美妆数据点评：毛戈平、巨子生物势头迅猛，丸美、上海家 化迎开门红 2 月美妆销售数据显示国货品牌于抖音平台重点发力，尤其护肤品类增长强劲。 前两个月累计来看，巨子生物、毛戈平增速突出，丸美、上海家化改善显著， 较其 24 年各季度增速有明显提升。38 大促中，毛戈平表现亮眼，成功斩获抖 音彩妆榜首。珀莱雅/韩束依旧稳守天猫/抖音美妆总榜第一。当前经济环境下 敬请参阅尾页之免责声明 请到彭博 (搜索代码: RESP CMBR )或 http://www.cmbi.com.hk 下载更多研究报告 招银国际研究部 2025 年 3 月 13 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 23,600 | -0.76 | 38.44 | | 恒生国企 | 8,682 | -0.84 | 50.51 | | 恒生 ...