Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and Google, indicating a positive outlook for these companies in the cloud and AI sectors [4][34]. Core Insights - The growth of cloud business for leading US cloud vendors is becoming a significant driver for stock price increases, with a notable acceleration in revenue growth observed in 2Q25 [4][21]. - The overall cloud business revenue for Amazon AWS, Google Cloud, and Microsoft Azure grew by 23% year-over-year in 2Q25, up from 20% in 1Q25 and 21% in 2Q24, with Google Cloud and Microsoft Azure showing more pronounced acceleration [4][3]. - Capital expenditures for leading cloud vendors have been increased due to strong demand signals, with a total of $95 billion in capital expenditures reported for 2Q25, a 67% increase year-over-year [3][4]. - AI-related investments are impacting profit margins, with some companies experiencing a decline in segment profit margins while overall operating margins improve due to enhanced operational efficiency in other core businesses [4][11]. Summary by Relevant Sections Revenue Growth - Google Cloud's revenue grew by 32% year-over-year to $13.6 billion in 2Q25, driven by strong demand for GCP core and AI products [3][28]. - Microsoft Azure and other cloud services saw a 39% year-over-year revenue increase in 2Q25, exceeding previous guidance [15][34]. - Amazon AWS reported revenue of $30.9 billion in 2Q25, a 17.5% increase year-over-year [21][27]. Capital Expenditures - Total capital expenditures for Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta reached $95 billion in 2Q25, reflecting a 67% year-over-year increase [3][4]. - Google raised its FY25 capital expenditure guidance to $85 billion, a 62% increase year-over-year, to meet strong cloud demand [28][4]. - Meta's capital expenditure is projected to be between $66 billion and $72 billion for FY25, a growth of 68%-84% year-over-year [12][34]. Profit Margins - Despite a decline in segment profit margins for Microsoft and Amazon, overall operating margins improved due to efficiency gains in other business units [4][19]. - Meta's operating profit margin is expected to decline by approximately 1 percentage point in FY25 due to rising depreciation and personnel costs, partially offset by revenue growth from AI [11][12]. - Google Cloud's operating profit margin improved by 9 percentage points year-over-year to 20.7% in 2Q25, aided by strong revenue growth [28][4].

Global Market Overview - Major global stock markets showed positive performance, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 24,903, up 1.61% for the day and 24.14% year-to-date [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 2.29%, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 23.57% [1] - The US markets experienced slight declines, with the Dow Jones down 1.20% and the S&P 500 down 0.98% [1] Hong Kong Stock Performance - The Hang Seng Financial Index increased by 2.00%, with a year-to-date rise of 27.05% [2] - The Hang Seng Property Index rose by 1.35%, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 22.31% [2] Chinese Stock Market Insights - The Chinese stock market saw gains, particularly in healthcare, materials, and information technology sectors, while real estate and consumer sectors lagged [3] - Southbound capital inflow reached a four-month high of 23.43 billion HKD [3] - A forecast for the A-share market indicated strong performance for upstream companies in non-ferrous metals and chemicals due to rising product prices [3] Company Analysis: Yum China - Yum China maintained its full-year guidance, with Q2 sales increasing by 4% to 2.79 billion USD and net profit rising by 1% to 215 million USD, aligning with market expectations [4] - The company reported a gross margin of 70.9% and an operating profit margin of 10.9%, both exceeding market expectations [4] - The management set a conservative same-store sales growth target for the second half of the year, citing macroeconomic instability and cautious consumer behavior [5] Company Analysis: China Tower - China Tower's H1 2025 results met expectations, with revenue growing by 2.8% year-on-year to 49.6 billion RMB and net profit increasing by 8.0% to 5.8 billion RMB [5] - The net profit margin improved to 11.6%, reflecting a slight increase from the previous year [5] - The company announced an interim dividend of 0.13 RMB per share, enhancing shareholder returns [5] Focus Stocks - Geely Automobile (175 HK) rated as "Buy" with a target price of 24.00 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 32% [6] - Tencent (700 HK) also rated as "Buy" with a target price of 660.00 HKD, suggesting a 17% upside [6] - Alibaba (BABA US) rated as "Buy" with a target price of 141.20 USD, indicating a potential increase of 21% [6]

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 24,903, up 1.61% for the day and 24.14% year-to-date [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 2.29%, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 23.57% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.62%, with a year-to-date performance of 7.93% [1] Sector Performance - The Hang Seng Financial Index gained 2.00% for the day, with a year-to-date increase of 27.05% [2] - The Hang Seng Real Estate Index rose by 1.35%, showing a year-to-date performance of 22.31% [2] - The Hang Seng Utilities Index had a modest increase of 0.53%, with a year-to-date performance of 3.93% [2] Chinese Market Insights - Chinese stocks saw gains, with healthcare, materials, and information technology sectors leading the way [3] - Southbound capital inflow reached a net buy of HKD 23.43 billion, marking a four-month high [3] - A-shares in the banking and steel sectors showed significant gains, while biopharmaceuticals and computers lagged [3] Company Analysis: Yum China - Yum China maintained its full-year guidance, with Q2 sales up 4% year-on-year to USD 2.79 billion, and net profit up 1% to USD 215 million [4] - The company reported a gross margin of 70.9% and an operating profit margin of 10.9%, both exceeding market expectations [4] - The management set a conservative same-store sales growth target for the second half of the year, citing macroeconomic instability [5] Company Analysis: China Tower - China Tower's H1 2025 results met expectations, with revenue growth of 2.8% year-on-year to RMB 49.6 billion and net profit growth of 8.0% to RMB 5.8 billion [5] - The EBITDA increased by 3.6% to RMB 34.2 billion, with an EBITDA margin of 69.0% [5] - The company announced an interim dividend of RMB 0.13 per share, enhancing shareholder returns [5] Focus Stocks - Geely Automobile (175 HK) rated as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 24.00, indicating a potential upside of 32% [6] - Tencent (700 HK) also rated as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 660.00, suggesting a 17% upside [6] - Alibaba (BABA US) rated as "Buy" with a target price of USD 141.20, indicating a potential increase of 21% [6]

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is projected to experience a nominal GDP growth rate of approximately 5% in 2024, followed by a slight decline to 4.9% in 2025 and 4.6% in 2026 due to tariff impacts and diminishing policy effects[64] - China's economic recovery is characterized by fluctuations, with GDP growth expected to rise from 4.6% in Q3 2024 to 5.4% in Q1 2025, before declining again[64] Stock Market Performance - In the economic contraction phase, stocks generally decline significantly, with essential consumption, energy, utilities, and healthcare sectors outperforming, while real estate and technology sectors lag behind[18] - During the economic recovery phase, stocks in discretionary consumption, real estate, technology, and materials sectors show the highest gains, while utilities and essential consumption sectors underperform[18] Sector Analysis - In the economic expansion phase, technology, finance, and real estate sectors tend to outperform, while utilities, essential consumption, and healthcare sectors underperform[18] - Average annual returns for the consumer discretionary sector during the recovery phase are 40.8%, with a market outperformance rate of 64.5%[15] Economic Indicators - Key economic indicators include consumer confidence, manufacturing orders, and employment rates, which are closely linked to stock market performance[28][29] - The U.S. consumer confidence index has a direct correlation with the S&P 500 index, indicating that increased consumer confidence typically leads to stock market gains[27] Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy is influenced by the Taylor rule, which incorporates inflation rates and unemployment levels to determine the federal funds rate[43] - High fiscal deficit rates combined with low household savings rates contribute to high inflation and interest rates in the U.S. economy[46] Currency and International Relations - The U.S. dollar index is expected to fluctuate, potentially dropping below 95, with a slight rebound anticipated towards the end of the year[55] - The relationship between the U.S.-China nominal GDP growth rates and interest rate differentials will influence the USD/CNY exchange rate, with projections suggesting a slight appreciation of the yuan[114] Investment Strategy - The S&P 500 is forecasted to rise by 3% in the second half of the year and 8.5% for the entire year, with a favorable outlook on sectors such as information technology, communication services, finance, healthcare, and essential consumption[50]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Yesterday, the IG space opened 5 - 10bps wider with a cautious tone, and various bonds had different price movements. For example, TH bank BBLTB sub - curve and TW lifers gradually recovered and closed 1 - 3bps wider. In Chinese properties, GRNLGR 28 - 31s dropped 1.0 - 2.9pts [1]. - This morning, MTRC Perps were up 0.2pt, ADSEZ 31 - 41s and ADGREG 42s rose 0.6 - 2pts, while CKINF 4/4.2 Perps decreased 1pt [2]. - AVIC launched a tender offer and consent solicitation for its USD300mn AVICCP 2.375 02/09/26 at par, and is soliciting consent from bondholders for two modifications [6][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Trading Desk Comments - The IG space opened 5 - 10bps wider. TH bank BBLTB sub - curve and TW lifers closed 1 - 3bps wider. Lower - beta papers with 4.5% yield or below and front - end papers were heavily traded. FRESHK 26 - 28s had a spread change of 7bps tighter to 3bps wider. In Macau gaming, different bonds had price changes ranging from unchanged to +1pt. Among greater China higher - beta credits, Perps moved higher. There were block selling on FRNs of China leasing/securities houses and two - way flows on EU/Japan banks FRNs. Yankee AT1s recovered. In Chinese properties, GRNLGR, LNGFOR, and VNKRLE bonds dropped, while LIFUNGs rose. In the SEA, MEDCIJ 28 - 29s were unchanged to 0.1pt lower, and VEDLN 28 - 33s were unchanged to 0.2pts higher [1]. Analyst Comments - AVIC launched a tender offer and consent solicitation for AVICCP 2.375 02/09/26 at par. It failed to furnish audited FY24 financial statements and expects to be unable to provide unaudited 1H25 financial statements on time. It is soliciting consent for two modifications: removing the financial statement requirement and adding an early redemption option. The offer expires on 15 Aug'25, and two bondholder meetings will be held on 26 Aug'25. The tender offer settlement is on 29 Aug'25. The resolutions are binding if passed and the eligibility condition is met. The tender offer can be an opportunity for investors to switch to other Chinese IG names [6][7][9]. Macro News Recap - On Monday, S&P (+1.47%), Dow (+1.34%), and Nasdaq (+1.95%) were higher, and UST yield was lower with 2/5/10/30 yield at 3.69%/3.75%/4.22%/4.80% [5]. Last Trading Day's Top Movers - Top Performers included GWFOOD 3.258 10/29/30 (price 86.3, change 2.4), WESCHI 4.95 07/08/26 (price 92.8, change 1.3), etc. Top Underperformers included GRNLGR 6.9 02/12/29 (price 20.1, change - 2.9), GRNLGR 8 1/4 01/22/31 (price 20.1, change - 2.9), etc. [4]. Offshore Asia New Issues - **Priced**: No Offshore Asia New Issues Priced Today [12]. - **Pipeline**: Licheng International Development plans a 3 - year issue with a 5.5% pricing and is unrated. Macquarie Bank plans an 11NC10 issue with a pricing of T + 170 and has an issue rating of A3/BBB+/BBB+ [13]. News and Market Color - Regarding onshore primary issuances, 85 credit bonds were issued yesterday with an amount of RMB66bn. Month - to - date, 130 credit bonds were issued with a total amount of RMB149bn, a 4.4% yoy increase. S&P revised the outlook of Adani Electricity Mumbai to stable from negative, affirmed BBB - rating [14]. - S&P revised the outlook of Adani Green Energy RG2 to stable from negative, affirmed BB+ rating; revised the outlook of Adani Ports to positive from negative, affirmed BBB - rating. Agile plans to deliver a preliminary restructuring proposal to offshore creditors in 3Q25. Ant Group will exit India's Paytm by selling its 5.84% stake for up to INR38bn (cUSD434mn). Road King bondholder group can block revised consent solicitation. SK Telecom will help develop a South Korean ChatGPT challenger. SK On will focus on cutting - edge technology [21].

Global Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 24,508, down 1.60% for the day but up 45.32% year-to-date [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,573, down 1.18% for the day and up 20.11% year-to-date [1] - The U.S. Dow Jones closed at 44,131, down 0.74% for the day and up 17.09% year-to-date [1] Hong Kong Stock Performance - The Hang Seng Financial Index closed at 44,485, down 1.37% for the day and up 49.16% year-to-date [2] - The Hang Seng Real Estate Index closed at 18,268, down 2.31% for the day and down 0.33% year-to-date [2] Chinese Stock Market Insights - The Chinese stock market saw a rebound, with sectors like materials, information technology, and finance leading gains, while telecommunications and consumer staples lagged [3] - A total of 1.96 million new A-share accounts were opened in July, a 71% year-on-year increase [3] - The People's Bank of China indicated a preference for a strong RMB policy, with personal stock trading income remaining tax-exempt [3] Investment Opportunities - Geely Automobile (175 HK) is rated as a buy with a target price of 24.00, representing a 34% upside potential [4] - Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US) is rated as a buy with a target price of 44.95, indicating a 21% upside potential [4] - Tencent (700 HK) is rated as a buy with a target price of 660.00, suggesting a 22% upside potential [4] Sector Analysis - The equipment manufacturing sector, represented by companies like Sany International (631 HK) and Zoomlion (1157 HK), shows strong buy ratings with target prices indicating significant upside potential [4] - The semiconductor sector, including companies like Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) and Beike Micro (2149 HK), is also rated as a buy, reflecting optimism in technological advancements [4]

Macro Economic Overview - The US job market has significantly weakened, with July non-farm payrolls falling below market expectations and a downward revision of 258,000 jobs for May and June, leading to a three-month moving average of 35,000 jobs [2] - The unemployment rate has slightly increased, reaching a new high since 2021, but remains at historical lows. The labor participation rate has continuously declined to its lowest since 2022, indicating a contraction in labor supply [2] - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma as tariffs are expected to drive inflation up, with predictions of maintaining interest rates in September and potential rate cuts in October and December [4] Industry Insights Express Delivery Industry - Recent discussions between the State Post Bureau and express operators, along with proposed amendments to pricing laws, are expected to catalyze positive changes in the express delivery sector over the next 3-6 months [5] - An increase in package prices is anticipated, although the momentum may not be as strong as in 2022 due to the current profitability of express operators being higher than in 2021 [5] Semiconductor Industry - Major cloud service providers have reported higher-than-expected capital expenditures, with a total of $89 billion in Q2 2025, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus by 12.8% [6] - The demand for computing power is expected to continue growing, with a projected 43% year-on-year increase in global AI-related capital expenditures by 2025 [6] Technology Sector - Apple's Q2 2025 results exceeded market expectations, with revenue and EPS growth of 10% and 12% year-on-year, driven by strong iPhone sales and a rebound in the Chinese market [6] - The company anticipates a mid-to-high single-digit revenue growth for Q3, with a gross margin of 46%-47%, which is above market expectations [6] Company Analysis Amazon - Amazon's Q2 2025 revenue reached $167.7 billion, a 13.3% year-on-year increase, surpassing both internal and consensus expectations [7] - The company expects Q3 2025 revenue to be between $174 billion and $179.5 billion, indicating a year-on-year growth of 9.5%-13% [7] Coinbase - Coinbase reported a 28% quarter-on-quarter decline in net revenue to $1.42 billion, primarily due to reduced volatility in the cryptocurrency market [7] - Management expects a recovery in trading revenue in July, with guidance for Q3 2025 subscription and service revenue between $665 million and $745 million [7] Green Tea Group - Green Tea Group's H1 2025 net profit is expected to be between RMB 230 million and 237 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 32%-36% [8] - The company anticipates a significant improvement in profit margins, with a projected net profit margin of approximately 10.2% for H1 2025, up from 9.4% in the previous year [8]

Employment Data - In July, the U.S. added 73,000 non-farm jobs, below the market expectation of 104,000[5] - The non-farm employment figures for May and June were revised down by 258,000 to 19,000 and 14,000 respectively, resulting in a 3-month moving average of 35,000, the lowest since the pandemic[5] - Private sector job growth increased from 3,000 to 83,000 in July, while goods-producing jobs decreased by 13,000, with manufacturing jobs experiencing three consecutive months of negative growth[5] Unemployment and Labor Participation - The unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%, marking a new high since 2021 but still at historical lows[5] - The labor participation rate fell to 62.2%, the lowest since 2022, indicating a contraction in labor supply[5] - The household survey showed a decrease of 260,000 in employment and an increase of 220,000 in unemployment in July[5] Federal Reserve's Dilemma - Fed Chair Powell indicated that even if job growth drops to zero, a stable unemployment rate would suggest a robust labor market due to simultaneous declines in supply and demand[5] - The Fed faces a dilemma as tariffs may drive inflation up, complicating the balance between expanding employment and reducing inflation[5] - It is anticipated that the Fed will likely keep interest rates unchanged in September, followed by rate cuts in October and December[5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - LGFVs continued to consolidate, and investors turned to USD issues for higher absolute yields as lower-yielding CNH issues lacked catalysts to tighten further [2] - China's PMI indicates waning economic momentum, and the policy easing window may not open until Q4 2025. China may have stronger motivation to advance economic rebalancing after a potential trade deal with the US [3][11] - Moody's changed the rating outlook of SK Hynix to positive from stable and affirmed its Baa2 rating, and SK Hynix is favored for its strong global market position and solid operating cash flow [7][9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading Desk Comments - VNKRLE obtained up to RMB869mn loans from SZ Metro, and YLLGSP further bought back YLLGSP 5 1/8 05/20/26. VNKRLE 27 - 29 were 0.4 - 0.5pts lower, and YLLGSP 26 was 0.1pt higher [1] - In China IG, MEITUA/WB/XIAOMI 30s ended with 1 bp tighter to 1bp wider. New CB 3 - tranche CNH issues dropped 0.2 - 0.375pts from RO, and there was better buying on the 30yr papers [1] - In HK, HYSAN/NANFUN were unchanged to 0.5pt higher, whilst MTRC perps remained unchanged [1] - For TW lifers, CATLIF 34/39 were 1bp tighter to 2bps wider amid PB selling, NSINTW was unchanged, and SHIKON widened 1bp amid two - way flows [1] - For Thailand banks, BBLTB sub curve tightened 2 - 4bps and KBANK tightened 2bps [1] - In KR, DAESEC 26/29 widened 1bp and NHSECS 28 - 30 was 2bps tighter to 1bp wider. LGENSO curve retraced 2 - 4bps while HYNMTR/HYUELE tightened 1 - 4bps amid PB/AM buying [1] - FRN space is in good demand across Asia and EU bank papers. Investors in the region remained better buyers of Japanese and Yankee AT1s while there were selling flows from London [1] Morning Market Update - The new UBS 6.6 Perp was unchanged from RO at par, the new UBS 7 Perp was 0.1pt higher from RO at par. HAOHUA widened 1 - 2bps. DAESEC tightened 1 - 2bps. STANLN/MIZUHO/SUMIBK FRNs tightened 1 - 2bps. ANZ/CBAAU T2 widened 1 - 2bps [3] Macro News Recap - S&P (-0.37%), Dow (-0.74%) and Nasdaq (-0.03%) were lower on Thursday. US latest initial jobless claims was +218k, lower than the market expectation of +222k. US Jun'25 Core PCE price index was +2.8% yoy, higher than the market expectation of +2.7%. UST yield was largely unchanged on Thursday, 2/5/10/30 yield at 3.94%/3.96%/4.37%/4.89% [6] Desk Analyst Comments - Moody's changed the rating outlook of SK Hynix to positive from stable and affirmed its Baa2 rating, expecting its adjusted EBITDA to increase and adjusted debt/EBITDA to improve in FY25 - 26 [7] - SK Hynix overtook Samsung to become the world's leading memory chipmaker by revenue in Q2 2025, driven by higher demand for AI chips [8] China Economy Analysis - Manufacturing PMI further contracted with fading export front - loading. New order and export order indexes dropped, production moderated, and deflation pressure eased [11][12] - Non - manufacturing PMI softened as both service and construction activities moderated. Service PMI edged down, and construction PMI dipped [11][13] Offshore Asia New Issues - Offshore Asia New Issues (Priced): Chengdu & Europe Industrial Zone issued 156 USD mn in 3 - year bonds with a 6.95% coupon and unrated [17] - Offshore Asia New Issues (Pipeline): No new issues pipeline today [18] News and Market Color - There were 66 credit bonds issued onshore yesterday with an amount of RMB35bn. Month - to - date, 2,097 credit bonds were issued with a total amount of RMB2,143bn raised, representing a 12.7% yoy increase [19] - China new home sales fell 24% yoy in Jul'25 as stimulus impact faded [19] - Various company financial results and events were reported, such as Adani Enterprises' 1QFY26 EBITDA fall, MGM China's 2Q25 net revenue rise, etc. [19]

Macro Economic Overview - The Federal Reserve maintained a hawkish stance, with the economic description shifting from "steady expansion" to "slowing" [2] - The market's expectation for interest rate cuts in 2023 has decreased from 46 basis points to 36 basis points [5] - The U.S. PCE inflation rebounded in June, with core PCE prices rising 2.8% year-on-year, marking a four-month high [4] Industry Insights - The technology sector is seeing mixed performance, with high-end models showing strong demand while overall industry demand remains weak [6] - Companies focusing on high-end flagship models and component upgrades are expected to benefit from anticipated strong demand in the second half of 2025 [6] Company Analysis - China National Pharmaceutical Group (1177 HK) is undergoing a significant transformation with a focus on innovative drug development, particularly in oncology and metabolic diseases, with a target price of HKD 9.40 [7][10] - Meta Platforms (META US) reported a 22% year-on-year revenue increase to USD 47.5 billion, driven by AI-enhanced advertising, with a target price raised to USD 860 [10] - Microsoft (MSFT US) exceeded expectations with a revenue of USD 76.4 billion for FY25, growing 18.1% year-on-year, and raised its target price to USD 601.5 [11] - Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US) showed strong sales growth of 47% year-on-year, with a target price of USD 44.95, despite rising costs [12][14]