Investment Rating - The report suggests a "barbell" investment strategy focusing on companies with stable cash flows supporting AI-related investments and those with strong operational capabilities for overseas expansion [1][3]. Core Insights - 2026 is viewed as a pivotal year for capturing user attention in the AI era, emphasizing the importance of lowering usage barriers, enhancing decision-making efficiency, and creating real value [1]. - Companies like Tencent, Alibaba, and Kuaishou are highlighted for their potential to benefit from AI-driven growth in advertising and cloud services, while firms like NetEase and Trip.com are noted for their stable earnings growth and reasonable valuations [1][3]. Summary by Sections AI Theme - Companies to watch include Tencent, which is expected to benefit from AI-driven advertising and cloud growth, Alibaba, which has a lower valuation compared to peers, and Kuaishou, which is making progress in monetizing AI applications [1][3]. Profit Growth Certainty - Focus on companies with reasonable valuations and strong performance, such as NetEase and Trip.com, which are expected to maintain stable profit growth [1][3]. E-commerce and Online Retail - The online retail sector is anticipated to see growth in experiential consumption, while competition in physical goods retail may normalize due to reduced government subsidies [3][15]. - Instant retail is expected to maintain high GMV growth, but the overall e-commerce sector may face challenges in revenue and profit growth due to competitive pressures [3][15]. Online Gaming and Music - The online gaming industry is projected to grow by around 10% in revenue, with profit growth expected to be between 10-15% [15]. - The online music sector is expected to see revenue and profit growth of 10-15%, although competition from ByteDance's music platform poses challenges [15][18]. Cloud and Advertising - Cloud and advertising are expected to remain the main growth drivers for companies leveraging AI, with a focus on investment returns [3][39]. Overseas Expansion - The report highlights the potential for overseas expansion in cloud services and OTA, with companies that have strong cash flow and profit margins likely to perform better in the long term [3][15]. Investment Recommendations - Specific companies recommended for investment include Tencent, Alibaba, Kuaishou, Trip.com, and NetEase, each with unique strengths and growth prospects in the AI and digital landscape [37][38].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Microsoft (MSFT US), Google (GOOG US), Amazon (AMZN US), and Palo Alto Networks (PANW US) [22][23]. Core Insights - The competition in the large model industry is expected to intensify, with AI applications continuing to monetize effectively. The report highlights the potential for revenue growth driven by enhanced capabilities in AI models, particularly in image editing and video generation [1][25]. - Cloud service providers are experiencing accelerated revenue growth, with capital expenditures increasing significantly, indicating strong demand and a healthy outlook for profitability [3][9]. - AI monetization is driving growth in core business areas while exploring new revenue opportunities, with a focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvements [3][22]. Summary by Sections Industry Outlook - The large model industry is witnessing intensified competition, with continuous improvements in model capabilities and decreasing costs for model invocation. Key trends include a focus on agentic capabilities, faster iteration of open-source models, and the feasibility of large-scale deployment of end-to-end voice interaction models [3][25]. Cloud Business Performance - Revenue growth for U.S. internet companies' cloud businesses has accelerated, with a year-on-year increase in capital expenditures reaching $93.1 billion (+71% YoY). Operating profit for cloud businesses grew by 24.1% YoY in Q3 2025 [3][9]. AI Monetization - AI is driving growth beyond traditional cloud and advertising sectors, creating new revenue opportunities and enhancing operational efficiency. The report notes that enterprise AI applications are commercializing more slowly than AI cloud and advertising but still show promise for profit margin improvements [3][22]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on two main scenarios for AI monetization: applications where large models excel, such as programming and creative generation, and high-value AI applications in traditional verticals like enterprise intelligence and education [3][22]. Financial Projections - The report projects that global AI spending will grow by 37% year-on-year to reach $2.0 trillion by 2026, with significant growth expected in AI application software and AI infrastructure software [8][22].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to key companies in the mining machinery sector, including SANY Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, and Weichai Power, indicating strong growth potential in the upcoming years [5][4]. Core Insights - The mining machinery sector, particularly large mining excavators and trucks, is expected to be a major growth area for Chinese engineering machinery manufacturers in 2026, driven by high global capital expenditure in mining and increasing demand for Chinese brand equipment due to domestic companies expanding overseas [2][4]. - The report forecasts a 70% increase in global demand for backup generator sets for data centers from 2025 to 2030, presenting significant opportunities for Weichai Power [2][4]. - The report highlights that the replacement cycle for construction equipment in China is ongoing, with specific growth expected in the automotive crane sector starting in 2026, driven by energy construction demands [4][2]. Summary by Sections Mining Machinery - Global mining capital expenditure is projected to remain high, with a 16% year-on-year growth expected in 2025, and continued growth in 2026, driven by rising demand for energy-related metals and aging equipment needing replacement [12][25]. - Chinese brands are increasingly penetrating the large mining machinery market, traditionally dominated by international giants like Caterpillar and Komatsu, by enhancing product offerings and after-sales service networks [4][12]. - Africa and Brazil are identified as key markets for Chinese mining machinery, with increasing import shares from China surpassing those from the U.S. in recent years [4][46]. Equipment Replacement Cycle - The report anticipates that the replacement cycle for earth-moving machinery will continue, with excavators and wheel loaders seeing sustained demand [4][68]. - The upcoming Yaxia hydropower project in China is expected to significantly boost demand for construction machinery, with an estimated annual investment of approximately 24 billion RMB in related machinery [67][68]. Data Center Power Equipment - The demand for backup diesel generator sets is expected to grow significantly, with the market size projected to expand from approximately 4 billion USD in 2025 to about 6.8 billion USD by 2030, reflecting a growth rate exceeding 70% [4][2]. - Weichai Power is positioned to capitalize on this growth, focusing on the backup power segment for data centers [4][2]. Company-Specific Insights - SANY Heavy Industry aims to increase its sales of large mining trucks from 22% in 2024 to 40% in 2025 and 55% in 2026, indicating a strategic shift towards larger equipment [32][38]. - The report emphasizes the potential for after-market services in the mining equipment sector, which can provide sustainable revenue growth as the installed base of equipment increases [43][4].

招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 行业及公司点评 全球市场观察 2025 年 12 月 8 日 1 中国股市上涨，港股原材料、金融与工业领涨，综合、公用事业与必选消费 下跌，南向净买入 13.4 亿港元，小米与美团净买入最多，阿里与腾讯净卖出 居前。A 股非银金融、有色金属与工贸综合涨幅居前，银行、煤炭与电信服 务跑输市场。A 股券商板块大涨，中国证监会主席表示鼓励头部机构通过并 购重组打造国际一流投行，将对优质券商适度松绑打开资本空间与杠杆限制， 鼓励中小机构打造小而美的精品投行、特色投行和特色服务商；保险板块大 涨，保险公司投资资本市场的风险因子再度下调，显示监管机构鼓励险资等 长期资本入市的态度。 美股上涨，通讯服务、信息技术与可选消费涨幅居前，公用事业、能源与医 疗保健跌幅最大。戴尔、联想、惠普等主要 OEM 厂商计划大幅提高服务器 价格，因供应很难跟上快速增长的需求。微软与博通商谈定制芯片设计合作， 可能替换现有供应商 Marvell，以降低对英伟达依赖。随着 AI 产品创新，定 制芯片需求激增，科技公司寻求供应链多元化以降低风险与成本。 美债收益率升至两周新高，美元指数转 ...

Industry Overview - The wide bandgap semiconductor industry, driven by Silicon Carbide (SiC) and Gallium Nitride (GaN), is entering a new phase of sustained growth, primarily fueled by the electrification of vehicles and the restructuring of power architecture in AI data centers [2][3] - The industry is transitioning from traditional 54V DC power supply to 800V High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) architecture, which is crucial for the next generation of high-power AI racks, relying heavily on the application of SiC and GaN [2][7] Market Growth - According to TrendForce, the global SiC power device market is expected to reach approximately $3.4 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 12%, with automotive applications accounting for over 70% of this market [3] - The GaN device market is projected to grow by 43% year-on-year, reaching about $388 million, with continued expansion expected due to increasing penetration in automotive and renewable energy sectors, as well as emerging applications in AI data centers [3] Investment Opportunities - Companies with scale advantages, leading technology on 8-inch wafers, automotive-grade certified product lines, and system-level solution capabilities are expected to be the main beneficiaries of this trend [2] - In particular, InnoPhase (2577 HK) is highlighted as a leading player in the pure GaN sector, with an anticipated market share of around 30% in 2024 and a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 55.2% from 2024 to 2027, benefiting from industry tailwinds and strategic partnerships with global players like NVIDIA [7]

Group 1: Market Overview - Global markets showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 25,761, down 1.28% for the day but up 28.42% year-to-date [1] - The US markets saw gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.86% and the S&P 500 up 0.30%, while the Nasdaq increased by 0.17% [1] - The Chinese stock market experienced declines, particularly in healthcare, consumer discretionary, and financial sectors, while materials and utilities outperformed [3] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The global economic outlook for 2026 suggests resilience due to inventory demand, AI trends, and fiscal expansion, despite challenges from tariffs [5] - The US GDP growth is projected to decrease from 1.9% in 2025 to 1.8% in 2026, with a cooling job market and rising unemployment rates [6] - The Eurozone GDP growth is expected to decline from 1.4% in 2025 to 1.2% in 2026, influenced by tightening financial conditions and slowing global trade [6] Group 3: Company Analysis - The report highlights that 巨子生物 (Giant Bio) is facing short-term sales pressure due to underperformance in its sales channels, but management remains focused on strategic adjustments [9] - The company plans to enhance its self-operated channels and reduce reliance on top influencers, aiming for long-term growth despite current competitive pressures [9] - The company has been approved to repurchase up to 10% of its shares, reflecting confidence in its long-term prospects [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 53.89, down from a previous target of HKD 58.35, indicating a potential upside of 35.7% from the current price of HKD 39.70 [2][6]. Core Insights - The company's short-term performance is under pressure due to disappointing sales during the "Double Eleven" shopping festival, primarily attributed to the underperformance of the "Dabo" sales channel. This reflects both strategic channel adjustments by the company and overall competitive pressures in the industry [6]. - Management remains committed to maintaining pricing stability and enhancing consumer experience, which is expected to lay a foundation for long-term growth. The company plans to launch several key new products next year to drive a new growth cycle [6]. - The company has been approved to repurchase up to 104 million shares, representing 10% of its total share capital, demonstrating confidence in its long-term development [6]. Financial Summary - For FY23A, the company reported sales revenue of RMB 3,524 million, with a year-on-year growth of 49.0%. Projections for FY25E and FY26E show expected revenues of RMB 5,347 million and RMB 6,075 million, respectively, with growth rates of -3.5% and 13.6% [2][11]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for FY23A was RMB 1,452 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 44.9%. The forecast for FY25E and FY26E is RMB 1,903 million and RMB 2,126 million, with growth rates of -7.7% and 11.7% [2][11]. - The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 24.0 for FY23A, decreasing to 15.2 by FY27E, indicating a potential increase in valuation as earnings grow [2][11]. Sales Performance - During the "Double Eleven" event, the company's online GMV for "Kefumei" declined approximately 30% year-on-year, with Tmall GMV down about 20% due to the company's decision to avoid aggressive price wars. However, the self-operated and mid-tier influencer channels showed resilience [6]. - The "Keli Jin" brand experienced double-digit growth in online GMV during the same period, particularly strong in the Douyin channel, indicating a successful strategy in diversifying sales channels [6]. Product Strategy - The company is actively cultivating a second tier of products to optimize its product structure, with expectations for significant revenue growth from new product launches in 2025 and 2026 [6]. - The medical beauty product line is set to expand, with the first injectable recombinant collagen product approved and plans for rapid terminal coverage expansion in 2026, which is anticipated to become a significant growth driver with higher profit margins than cosmetics [6].

2025 年 12 月 3 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 全球市场观察 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 26,095 | 0.91 | 30.09 | | 恒生国企 | 9,183 | 0.57 | 25.96 | | 恒生科技 | 5,624 | 0.45 | 25.87 | | 上证综指 | 3,898 | 0.23 | 16.29 | | 深证综指 | 2,462 | 0.34 | 25.79 | | 深圳创业板 | 3,071 | 0.61 | 43.40 | | 美国道琼斯 | 47,474 | -0.51 | 11.59 | | 美国标普 500 | 6,829 | -0.29 | 16.11 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 23,414 | 0.21 | 21.25 | | 德国 DAX | 23,711 | -0.53 | 19.10 | | 法国 CAC | 8,0 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The Macau gaming industry shows strong GGR growth in 11M25, with the full - year 2025 GGR expected to exceed the government's budget. The 2026 government target seems conservative. MPELs, STCITYs are top picks, and WYNMAC'27 and '29 are yield - pick - up plays, while neutral on MGMCHIs, SANLTDs, and SJMHOLs [7][9][12] - In the fixed - income market, various bonds have different price and spread movements, influenced by factors such as company performance, market flows, and macroeconomic conditions [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Trading Desk Comments - Yesterday, there were active flows among AMs/PBs on JP financials and corps, but spreads were generally unchanged. Asian AMs and prop desks bought Yankee AT1s. Korean IGs tightened, while Chinese TMTs/POEs widened. NWDEVL complex mostly rose, CWAHK decreased, EHICAR was stable to up, FAEACO recovered, Macau gaming bonds had small price changes, and Chinese property bonds had mixed performance. In SE Asia, BBLTB senior tightened, and SMCGL Perps had small price movements [2] - This morning, new AGRBK 28, ANZ 28s/30s FRN, and HYUELEs tightened, while China TMTs/HAOHUA/PINGIN widened. JP insurance hybrids and AT1s were lower. SMCGL Perps were unchanged [3] Last Trading Day's Top Movers - Top performers include CHIOLI, NWDEVL, FAEACO, etc., with significant price increases. Top underperformers include CFAMCI, LNGFOR, TENCNT, etc., with price decreases [5] Macro News Recap - On Monday, S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq were lower. US Nov'25 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was higher than expected, while ISM Manufacturing PMI/Prices were lower. UST yield was higher, with 2/5/10/30 - year yields at 3.54%/3.67%/4.09%/4.74% [6] Desk Analyst Comments - Macau Gaming - Cumulative GGR growth accelerated in 11M25. In Nov'25, GGR increased 14.4% yoy to MOP21.1bn. The 11M25 GGR reached MOP226.5bn, 84.0% of the 2019 level, and yoy growth widened to 8.6%. Full - year 2025 GGR is expected to reach cMOP245bn, exceeding the government budget. The 2026 government target of MOP236bn seems conservative [7][9][10] Offshore Asia New Issues - New issues include Agricultural Bank of China Limited Tokyo Branch (300mn USD, 3 - year, SOFR + 42) and ANZ (750mn USD 3 - year/500mn USD 5 - year, SOFR + 59/SOFR + 68) [15] - There is no new issue pipeline today [16] News and Market Color - 64 credit bonds were issued onshore yesterday with an amount of RMB63bn. Media reported China asked real - estate data providers to withhold Nov'25 home - sales data. Asahi Mutual Life acquired MVI Life for cUSD170mn, and Fosun International issued a 2 - year JPY4.2bn bond at 3% [17] Company - Specific News - Fitch downgraded Greenko Energy to BB - from BB. Kaisa started consent solicitation on six USD bonds. NWD accepted tenders for multiple bonds. Petron Malaysia will halt operations due to a storm. S&P revised Vedanta Resources' outlook to positive. China Vanke seeks grace to repay a bond. West China Cement accepted a tender offer. ENN Energy extended the privatization document dispatch [22]

Industry Outlook - The Chinese equipment manufacturing industry is expected to focus on mining machinery, data center power supply, and equipment replacement cycles by 2026, with large mining excavators and trucks becoming key growth areas due to high metal prices and aging equipment [2] - Capital expenditure in global mining companies is projected to remain high, benefiting Chinese brands like Zoomlion, Sany Heavy Industry, and Sany International [2] - The domestic market is expected to see a continued equipment replacement cycle, with increased demand driven by the acceleration of hydropower project tenders in 2026 [2] - The global demand for backup generators for data centers is forecasted to increase by 70% from 2025 to 2030, presenting opportunities for Weichai Power to enter this market [2] Company Analysis - Sany Heavy Industry is expected to benefit from the growth in overseas large mining excavators and emerging markets, with an upward adjustment of 2-5% in profit forecasts for 2025E-27E due to increased sales assumptions [7] - Zoomlion is positioned to leverage its complete product line and focus on emerging markets, with profit forecasts for 2025E-27E raised by 12-15% [8] - Weichai Power anticipates a slowdown in heavy truck engine demand growth to 3% in 2026, but will benefit from the explosive growth in backup power supply engines for data centers, with profit forecasts for 2025E-27E adjusted upward by 1-5% [9] - Baozun's e-commerce segment reported a revenue of 2.2 billion RMB in Q3 2025, a 5% year-on-year increase, with a narrowing net loss driven by margin expansion and cost optimization [10]