Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price set at $14.5 based on an 8x P/E ratio for FY25E [1][19]. Core Insights - The company reported a net revenue of $457 million for Q4 2024, showing a year-over-year growth of approximately 0% in constant currency, aligning with Bloomberg consensus expectations. Non-GAAP net profit increased by 40% year-over-year to $107 million, exceeding expectations by 9% due to effective operational expense control [1][2]. - For FY25E, the overall sentiment among advertisers remains mixed, with certain verticals like 3C products and e-commerce increasing ad budgets supported by national subsidy programs, while others like cosmetics and gaming are cautious in ad spending. The company forecasts a 2% year-over-year revenue growth in constant currency for FY25E [1][3]. Revenue and Profitability Forecast - The company expects a slight revenue recovery in FY25E, projecting a total revenue of $1.77 billion, which represents a 2% year-over-year increase, primarily driven by growth in advertising revenue from 3C and e-commerce sectors [3][4]. - The adjusted net profit for FY25E is estimated at $481 million, with an adjusted EPS of $1.81. The report indicates a decrease in the non-GAAP operating profit margin to 31% for FY25E, down from 33% in FY24, mainly due to increased investments in artificial intelligence [4][14]. User Engagement Metrics - As of December 2024, the monthly active users (MAUs) decreased by 1% year-over-year to 590 million, while the daily active users (DAUs) to MAUs ratio improved to 44.1% from 43.0% in December 2023 [2][3]. Dividend Policy - The company announced an annual dividend policy, planning to pay $200 million in dividends for FY24, which equates to an approximate 8% dividend yield [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Adobe with a target price adjusted to $629.00, reflecting a slight decrease in earnings forecasts for FY25-27 [1][12][28]. Core Insights - Adobe's total revenue for Q1 FY25 reached $5.71 billion, showing an 11% year-over-year growth, with non-GAAP net income increasing by 9% to $2.22 billion, aligning with expectations [1]. - The company anticipates that its AI-driven independent products will double their annual recurring revenue by the end of FY25, contributing approximately 1% to total revenue [1]. - Digital media revenue grew by 11% year-over-year to $4.23 billion, driven by strong performance in Acrobat and Creative flagship products [2]. - Adobe's strategic focus on customer-centric innovation and cross-cloud services is expected to drive long-term growth [3]. Financial Summary - For FY25, Adobe's projected revenue is $23.43 billion, with a year-over-year growth rate of 8.9% [4]. - Non-GAAP net profit for FY25 is estimated at $8.79 billion, with adjusted earnings per share expected to be $19.66 [4]. - The company has accelerated its stock buyback program, repurchasing 7 million shares valued at $3.25 billion in Q1 FY25 [3]. Valuation - Adobe's valuation is based on a 32x price-to-earnings ratio for FY25, resulting in an estimated equity valuation of $281 billion [12][13]. - The target price reflects a 43.4% upside from the current price of $438.60 [4][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China General Nuclear Power Group (1164 HK) with a target price of HKD 2.36, representing a potential upside of 55.5% from the current price of HKD 1.52 [4][5][25] Core Insights - The profit warning issued by China General Nuclear Power Group indicates a projected net profit decline of HKD 130-180 million for 2024, primarily due to one-off items such as dividend withholding tax and fair value changes from stock exchanges [1][2] - Excluding these one-off factors, the pre-tax profit from ongoing operations is expected to grow by HKD 230-280 million in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 41-50%, slightly above previous forecasts [1][2] - The company reported a significant increase in income tax expenses for the first half of 2024, attributed to changes in Kazakhstan's tax policy regarding dividend withholding tax [1] Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from HKD 7,363 million in FY23A to HKD 10,992 million in FY24E, representing a year-on-year growth rate of 49.3% [3][12] - Adjusted net profit is expected to decline from HKD 497.1 million in FY23A to HKD 443.4 million in FY24E, a decrease of 10.8% [3][12] - The company’s earnings per share (adjusted) is forecasted to decrease from HKD 6.54 in FY23A to HKD 5.83 in FY24E [3][12] Shareholder Structure - China General Nuclear Power Group holds a 56.9% stake in the company, with China Chengtong Holdings holding 10.0% [5] Stock Performance - The stock has experienced a decline of 2.6% over the past month and 7.9% over the past three months [6]

Inflation Trends - February CPI increased by 2.8% year-on-year, down from 3% in January, and the month-on-month growth rate fell from 0.47% to 0.22%, below the market expectation of 0.27%[5] - Core CPI year-on-year growth decreased from 3.3% to 3.1%, with month-on-month growth dropping from 0.45% to 0.23%, also below the expected 0.28%[5] - The most persistent rent prices have seen their growth rate decline to near 2019 levels over the past three months[1] Market Reactions - Following the inflation data release, market expectations for interest rate cuts increased to 72 basis points for the year, with the 10-year Treasury yield slightly declining to below 4.3%[1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious stance on interest rate cuts in March, May, and June, potentially considering a cut in September or December[1] Economic Uncertainties - Trump's tariff policy introduces medium-term inflation uncertainties, with a projected 10% tariff expected to raise PCE inflation by approximately 0.5 percentage points over the next 12 months[5] - Consumer and business confidence indices have declined due to factors such as mass deportations and government spending cuts, leading to a potential slowdown in economic momentum[5] Core Services and Rent - Core services inflation has shown a mild decline, with transportation service prices significantly impacting the core CPI, dropping from a growth of 1.8% in January to -0.8% in February[5] - Owner's equivalent rent (OER), which accounts for nearly 35% of CPI, has maintained a growth rate of 0.3%, with its annualized growth over the past three months falling to 3.7%[5]

(852) 3761 8957 frankliu@cmbi.com.hk 叶丙南, Ph.D (852) 3761 8967 yebingnan@cmbi.com.hk 资料来源：Wind，招银国际环球市场 资料来源：Wind，招银国际环球市场 0 2 4 6 8 10 CPI 核心CPI CPI预测 核心CPI预测 同比(%) (5) 0 5 10 15 20 非耐用品 耐用品 服务扣除房租 房租 (%) 年 3 月 13 日 招银国际环球市场 | 宏观研究 | 宏观视角 美国经济 通胀超预期放缓，但不确定性仍在 美国 2 月通胀和核心通胀超预期放缓。食品和能源增速下降，核心商品中进口 商品如服装和家具价格增速超过去 6 个月平均水平。受机票和汽车保险价格等 运输服务价格大幅下降带动，核心通胀延续放缓，最具粘性的房租价格过去 3 月增速降至接近 2019 水平。数据公布后，市场对滞涨担忧略有缓解，对全年降 息幅度预期升至 72 个基点，10 年国债利率小幅下降至 4.3%以下区间。尽管通 胀近期仍保持温和放缓趋势，但特朗普关税政策给中期通胀带来不确定性。美 联储短期内可能对降息态度保持谨慎，在降通胀与防止就 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for EHang Holdings with an unchanged target price of US$30, indicating a potential upside of 33.6% from the current price of US$22.45 [3][24]. Core Insights - EHang's net loss in 4Q24 narrowed by 35% year-over-year (YoY) to RMB47 million, supported by a significant increase in electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft deliveries, which grew 2.4 times YoY [1][8]. - For 2025, EHang targets revenue of RMB900 million, suggesting a 97% YoY growth, and is positioned as the first manufacturer in China to obtain essential certifications for mass production of eVTOL aircraft, ahead of competitors by 1-2 years [1][8]. - The potential approval of operator certification for its subsidiaries is expected to be a key catalyst for share price movement [1]. Financial Performance Summary - In FY24, EHang's revenue surged 2.9 times YoY to RMB456 million, while the net loss narrowed by 24% YoY to RMB230 million [2][19]. - The company achieved positive operating cash flow for five consecutive quarters, with net cash and short-term investments totaling RMB1 billion at the end of 2024 [1][8]. - Revenue projections for FY25E and FY26E are RMB899 million and RMB1,341 million, respectively, with corresponding YoY growth rates of 97% and 49.2% [2][19]. Delivery and Expansion - EHang delivered 78 units of the EH216 series in 4Q24, contributing to a total of 216 units delivered in FY24, representing a 3.1 times YoY increase [1][8]. - The company is expanding its market presence both domestically and internationally, securing new orders in China and expanding flight operations to 16 cities in Japan, Thailand, and Mexico [1][8]. Share Performance and Market Data - EHang's market capitalization is approximately US$1.42 billion, with an average turnover of US$41.8 million over the past three months [3]. - The stock has shown significant performance over the past six months, with an increase of 85.4% [5].

2025 年 3 月 10 日 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 行业研究 中国医药 预期药品集采政策优化，期待"创新药目录"落地 MSCI 中国医疗指数 2025 年初至今累计上涨 12.9%，跑输 MSCI 中国指数 7.6%。 受益于国内药品价格政策优化、国内宏观环境改善以及海外降息预期，医药行业有 望在 2025 年继续迎来估值修复。丙类医保目录年内即将落地，创新药将获得更好 的支付环境。医疗设备招标加速复苏，将推动国产医疗设备企业盈利复苏。 估值表 | | | | 市值 | 目标价 | 上行/ | P/E (x) | | P/B (x) | | ROE (%) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 公司名称 | 股份代码 | 评级 | (百万美元) | | | | (LC) 下行空间 FY25E FY26E FY25E FY26E FY25E FY26E | | | | | | 百济神州 | ONC US | 买入 | 27,422.2 | 359.47 | 40% | 209 ...

2025 年 3 月 12 日 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 行业研究 中国医药 海外 CXO/生命科学上游 2024 和 4Q24 业绩剖析：C(D)MO 和生命科学上游表现亮眼，临床 CRO 需求滑坡 我们总结了海外主要 CXO 和生命科学上游公司的 2024 和 4Q24 业绩情况，所关注的 公司涉及临床 CRO、临床前 CRO、C(D)MO 以及生命科学上游。我们跟踪公司的 24 年收入和利润增长仍然承压，但有一半的公司 2H24 业绩表现相比 1H24 出现改善。 C(D)MO 和生命科学上游公司在业绩改善、需求展望和业绩指引方面均展现出积极趋 势；而临床 CRO 公司在 24 年下半年遇到了需求滑坡，相关公司对 25 年业绩指引普 遍保守。此外，我们认为 24 年 biotech 需求并没有实质改善，这将继续压制 25 年临 床前 CRO 的业绩表现。 估值表 | | | | 市值 | 目标价 | 上行/ | | 收入 CAGR 净利润 CAGR | P/E (x) | | PEG | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

美债收益率震荡上行。美联储理事Kugler警告称通胀可能仍然顽固，商品价格或再次上升，我们预计美 联储短期将维持利率不变。美元指数下跌，德国防务支出协议前景向好提振欧元，但美加关税打击加元， 日元回落，人民币走强。美元走弱和经济增长担忧支撑避险黄金走高。铜价上涨，铜价作为全球工业经济 晴雨表，与中国股市走势高度相关。 全球市场观察 周二（3月11日）中国股市再次跑赢全球。恒指持平，恒生科技大涨，必选消费、医疗保健与资讯科技板 块涨幅居前，原材料、金融与电讯板块下跌。A股表现好于港股，必选消费、原材料与金融板块领涨。中 概股大涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨2.8%，富时A50期指连续夜盘小幅上涨。国债期货价格下跌，国 债收益率上升，人民币走强。投资者关注存量房收储政策效果是否改善，因"两会"政府工作报告提出统筹 放开对收购主体、用途、价格等方面限制，加大地方政府专项债支持，拓宽保障性住房再贷款使用范围。 该政策有利于加快住房供求再平衡和房价见底企稳。 欧股下跌。特朗普在欧洲交易时段威胁对加拿大钢铝关税翻倍至50%并让加拿大汽车业永久关闭，推升 避险情绪，欧洲汽车股大跌。军工股持续大涨后面临获利回吐压力，德国军工龙 ...

市场盛传的海湖庄园协议构想主要来自白宫经济顾问委员会主席Stephen Miran的一篇报告。该报告提出多国 联合干预推动美元贬值、征收对等关税、发行无息"世纪债券"置换美国国债、盟友分摊全球公共品成本等政 策。联合干预汇率政策难度相对较小，可以推动美元短期快速贬值，但难以重振美国制造业，可能推升通胀预 期，打击资本流入。国债置换政策难度相对较大，对降低美债利率作用有限，可能降低美债吸引力，打击美元 国际地位，削弱美国盟友体系。相比1985年广场协议，海湖庄园协议构想面对更具对抗性的地缘政治关系和更 加复杂的经贸关系，政策目标更加多元且相互冲突，推动美元贬值、剥夺美债收益与维持美元地位相矛盾，国 债置换面临市场接受度与法律可行性挑战，关税政策面临盟友、贸易伙伴与国内零售商反对，通胀压力将限制 政策空间，该协议构想落地和实现目标的难度都明显更大。该协议构想凸显特朗普"美国优先"、贸易保护主义 和经济民族主义的世界观。如果特朗普强行推进该协议构想，那么将引发美国金融市场短期动荡，利空美元、 美债与美股，利好黄金、欧元与人民币。 广场协议的启示。1985年9月美国面对贸易逆差扩大和保护主义情绪升温，协调日本、西德、 ...