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鲍威尔保持鹰派立场
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2025-07-31 11:28
Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve maintained its policy interest rate at 5.25%-5.5%, marking a shift in economic description from "moderate expansion" to "slowing" [2] - The meeting saw two dissenting votes for the first time since 1993, indicating increased division among policymakers [2] - Market expectations for rate cuts in 2023 decreased from 46 basis points to 36 basis points following Powell's comments [1] Inflation and Employment - Powell highlighted that tariffs have been overlooked in their impact on inflation, suggesting that the costs will gradually be passed to consumers [1] - The labor market remains robust, with unemployment rates at historical lows, but a gradual weakening is expected in Q4 [1] - CPI growth is anticipated to rebound slightly in Q3 due to tariff impacts, but may decline again in Q4 as demand slows [1] Future Rate Cuts - The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged in Q3, with potential cuts in October and December, bringing the year-end policy rate to approximately 3.83% [1] - The anticipated cuts are driven by rising unemployment and the economic impact of tariffs [2] Market Implications - Long-term U.S. Treasury yields are expected to rise initially before declining, with year-end projections at around 4.2% [2] - The U.S. dollar index may rise in Q3 due to inflation rebounds, but could decline in Q4 as inflation falls and rate cuts are implemented [2]
中国生物制药(01177):创新管线价值重估,制药龙头华丽转身
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2025-07-31 09:10
Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating and sets a target price of HKD 9.40, indicating a potential upside of 24.9% from the current price of HKD 7.52 [1][3][23]. Core Insights - The report highlights the significant achievements of the company in its transformation from generic to innovative pharmaceuticals, focusing on key therapeutic areas such as oncology, liver disease/metabolism, respiratory, and surgical/pain management [1][9][26]. - The company has increased its R&D investment, with R&D expenses projected to reach RMB 5.09 billion in 2024, accounting for 17.6% of revenue, up from 9.9% in 2019 [10][40]. - The innovative product pipeline has expanded significantly, with 17 approved innovative drugs by the end of 2024, and the revenue contribution from innovative products is expected to reach 50% by 2025 and 60% by 2027 [10][47]. Financial Summary - For FY23A, the company reported sales revenue of RMB 26.199 billion, with a projected growth of 10.2% in FY24A [2]. - Adjusted net profit for FY23A was RMB 2.589 billion, with an expected increase of 33.5% in FY24A [2]. - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to grow from RMB 0.14 in FY23A to RMB 0.19 in FY24A [2]. Market Performance - The company's market capitalization is approximately HKD 141.08 billion, with an average trading volume of HKD 860.8 million in March [3]. - The stock has shown strong performance, with a 166.7% increase over the past six months [5]. Product Pipeline and Innovation - The company has a robust pipeline with multiple products showing potential for overseas licensing, including TQC3721, 罗伐昔替尼, and TQB2102 [12][27]. - The oncology segment is highlighted as a key growth area, with 安罗替尼 being a cornerstone product that has received multiple indications and is expected to generate significant sales [13][14]. Business Strategy - The company is focusing on enhancing its supply chain and production efficiency, achieving a procurement coverage rate of 95% by 2024 [28]. - A strategic shift towards a more specialized sales structure has been implemented to improve marketing effectiveness and operational efficiency [33]. Growth Projections - Revenue is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.5% from 2024 to 2027, driven by innovative product sales and a strong pipeline [23][24]. - Adjusted net profit is projected to increase at a CAGR of 11.4% during the same period [24].
固定收益部市场日报-20250731
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2025-07-31 06:59
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Despite a 25 - 30pt increase in VNKRLEs year - to - date, the valuation is still undemanding with upside potential due to SZ Metro's support and Vanke's manageable offshore debt maturities, so the buy recommendation on VNKRLEs is maintained [8]. - The recommendation on YLLGSP is changed to neutral from buy because of its unappealing valuation, although Yanlord is still considered a survivor in the sector [10]. - China's macro - policy is shifting towards economic rebalancing, focusing on boosting household consumption and addressing supply - side competition. The policy implementation window may open in 4Q25, and it may positively impact bond yields, RMB exchange rates, and Chinese stocks [14]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading Desk Comments - Yesterday, in KR, LGENSO 26 - 35s tightened 6 - 12bps after LG Energy signed a USD4.3bn battery supply contract with Tesla. In Chinese IGs, CNOOC/JD 39 - 50s long - end was 0.4 - 0.7pt lower. ZHOSHK 28 tightened 8bps. In financials, MIZUHO/SUMIBK Float 30 - 31s tightened 1bp. In insurance, NSINTW 34 and SHIKON 35 widened. Some AT1s and perpetual bonds rose. In HK, new bonds like LIFUNG 29 and LASUDE/LIHHK 26 increased. In Chinese properties, Yanlord repurchased USD46.65mn of YLLGSP, VNKRLE 27 - 29s decreased, and Vanke got a new loan from SZ Metro [1]. - This morning, LGENSO 27 - 35s widened 2 - 3bps, ZHOSHK 28 tightened 1bp, BBLTB 34 - 40s tightened 2 - 5bps. New CNH CB 30/35/55 were 0.1 - 0.3pt lower. VNKRLE 27 - 29s were 0.3 - 0.4pt lower [2]. Outside Properties - EHICAR 26/27 were up 0.4 - 1.2pts, 1.7 - 2.8pts higher week - to - date. In SE Asia, ADSEZ 27 - 31s were up 0.1 - 0.2pt, and other Adani complex bonds had a 0.1pt decrease to 0.2pt increase. VLLPM 29 lowered 0.8pt [3]. CNH Space - New CNH CCAMCL 29/30 were 0.2 - 0.6pts lower. New CNH TEMASE 30/35/55 and CHMEDA 30/35 closed 0.1 - 0.6pt lower. KCGZIG priced a 3yr CNH1.4bn bond at par. There were two - way interests in some CNH and USD new issues. SPICPD Perp was up 0.1pt [4]. Last Trading Day's Top Movers - Top performers included GWFOOD 3.258 10/29/30 with a 2.5pt increase and EHICAR 7 09/21/26 with a 1.2pt increase. Top underperformers included JMUDIV 6.9 05/30/27 with a 1.3pt decrease and MTRC 5 1/4 04/01/55 with a 1.0pt decrease [5]. Macro News Recap - On Wednesday, S&P was down 0.12%, Dow was down 0.38%, and Nasdaq was up 0.15%. The US Fed kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged. US Jul '25 ADP Non - farm employment was + 104k, higher than expected. US 2Q25 GDP was + 3.0% qoq, higher than expected. Trump mentioned a possible tariff on India, and UST yield was higher [6]. Desk Analyst Comments - Vanke obtained a secured loan of up to RMB869mn from SZ Metro with a 2.34% funding cost. Cumulatively, SZ Metro has provided RMB22.7bn in loans, about 59% unsecured. VNKRLE 3.975 11/09/27 and VNKRLE 3 1/2 11/12/29 are trading at YTM of 13.8% and 11.6% respectively [8]. - Yanlord further repurchased USD46.65mn of YLLGSP 5 1/8 05/20/26, reducing the outstanding amount to USD379.66mn. It had previous repurchases in Apr '25 and early Jul '25. YLLGSP is trading at a YTM of 5.2% [10]. China Policy - The Politburo meeting signals a shift towards economic rebalancing, focusing on boosting consumption and reducing supply - side competition. China may boost consumption through multiple measures and address supply - side issues by eliminating local protectionism, etc. The policy implementation window may open in 4Q25 [14]. Offshore Asia New Issues - No new offshore Asia issues were priced today. There is a pipeline issue from Chengdu & Europe Industrial Zone with a 3 - year tenor, a 7.3% pricing, and an unrated status [22][23]. News and Market Color - Yesterday, 66 credit bonds were issued in onshore primary issuances with an amount of RMB38bn. Month - to - date, 2,033 credit bonds were issued, raising RMB2,110bn, a 12.8% yoy increase [25]. - There are various corporate news, such as Moody's outlook revision for AAC Technologies, HSBC's subsidiary NPL change, JD's acquisition plan, etc. [25].
每日投资策略-20250731
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2025-07-31 03:54
Industry Insights - The Chinese stock market is experiencing a pullback, with sectors such as consumer discretionary, information technology, and finance leading the decline, while energy, consumer staples, and telecommunications sectors with high dividend yields are rising [2] - The political bureau meeting has set the tone for the second half of the year, focusing on boosting consumption and addressing internal competition, signaling a shift towards economic rebalancing [2][3] - The global AI glasses market is expected to grow significantly, with Ray-Ban Meta showing strong sales performance and Xiaomi setting ambitious shipment targets, indicating a robust growth trajectory for the AI glasses supply chain [3] Company Insights - New Oriental reported a 19% year-on-year increase in net revenue for Q4 FY25, reaching $1.09 billion, exceeding company guidance, while non-GAAP net profit grew by 59% to $98 million, driven by cost optimization measures [4] - For FY26, New Oriental anticipates total revenue growth of 5%-10%, reaching between $5.15 billion and $5.39 billion, which is below consensus expectations due to macroeconomic uncertainties and increased competition [4] - The target price for New Oriental has been adjusted down to $70 from a previous $76, maintaining a "Buy" rating despite the downward revision in revenue forecasts [4]
固定收益部市场日报-20250730
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2025-07-30 07:29
Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral rating on the Adani complex [11] Core Viewpoints - The expectations of further tender offers from Adani Ports should support the near - term performance of ADSEZs, but the gradual resumption of funding access and potential for more tender offers are fairly priced, so a neutral stance is maintained on the Adani complex [10][11] Summary by Relevant Sections Trading Desk Comments - In KR, HYNMTR/LGENSO Float 30s were 1 - 3bps tighter; in Chinese IGs, BABA 31/MEITUA 30 widened 1bp, BABA 47 - 61s were 1.0 - 1.5pts higher [1] - In financials, MIZUHO/SUMIBK Float 30 - 31s were unchanged to 1bps tighter, HSBC/STANLN Float 30 - 31s were under small selling and closed unchanged to 1bp wider [1] - In insurance, SHIKON/NSINTW 34 - 35s were 1 - 2bps tighter on PB buying, CATLIF 34 widened 1bp on small selling [1] - In HK, DAHSIN 33/SHCMBK 33/BNKEA 34 were 5 - 11bps tighter, LASUDE 26 was 1.8pts higher; REGH 6.5/HYSAN 7.2 Perps lowered 0.6 - 0.9pt [1] - In Chinese properties, VNKRLE 27 - 29s and ROADKG 28 - 30s were 0.1 - 0.6pt lower, ROADKD Perps were 0.1 - 0.2pt higher [1] - In SE Asia, VLLPM 29 rebounded 2.1pts, closed 0.9pt higher WTD [1] Morning Updates - ZHOSHK 28 tightened another 8bps; LGENSO 27 - 35s tightened 8 - 11bps after media reported LG Energy's contract with Tesla [2] - SHIKON/NSINTW 34 - 35s widened 1 - 2bps [2] - ADSEZ: USD438mn validly tendered as of the early tender deadline, ADSEZ 27 - 41s up 0.2 - 0.6pts [2][3] - LIFUNG priced 3.5NC2 USD300mn bond at 98.89 to yield 8.75%, LIFUNG 29 was 0.5pt higher from RO at 98.89 [2] CNH Space - New CNH CCAMCL 2.35 29/CCAMCL 2.43 30 were 0.2 - 0.6pts lower from ROs at par; new CNH TEMASE 30/35/55 and CHMEDA 30/35 were under better selling and closed 0.1 - 0.6pt lower [4] - KCGZIG priced 3yr CNH1.4bn bond at par to yield 2.65% (IPT at 3.3% area); there were two - way interests on CNH names LUOYNG 7 26s/QHCTJS 7 28s and USD new issues BINHCO 4.95 28s/DAZAKI 7 28s [4] - SPICPD Perp was up 0.1pt [4] Last Trading Day's Top Movers - Top Performers: VLLPM 9 3/8 07/29/29 up 2.1pts, LASUDE 5 07/28/26 up 1.8pts, BABA 5 5/8 11/26/54 up 1.5pts [5] - Top Underperformers: REGH 6 1/2 PERP down 0.9pt, ROADKG 6 03/04/29 down 0.6pt, ROADKG 5.9 09/05/28 down 0.6pt [5] Macro News Recap - S&P (-0.30%), Dow (-0.46%) and Nasdaq (-0.38%) were lower on Tuesday; US and China will continue talks on tariff truce extension [6] - US Jul'25 CB Consumer Confidence was 97.2, higher than the market expectation of 95.9; US Jun'25 JOLTS Job Openings was 7.437mn, lower than the market expectation of 7.510mn [6] - UST yield was lower on Tuesday, 2/5/10/30 yield at 3.86%/3.90%/4.34%/4.86% [6] Desk Analyst Comments - Adani Ports announced early tender offer results as of the early deadline; ADSEZ 4 07/30/27 was oversubscribed and no more validly tendered bonds after the early deadline will be accepted [7] - The tender offers will expire on 13 Aug'25 5pm EDT [7] Offshore Asia New Issues - Priced: Chengdu Xisheng Investment Group issued 92.5mn USD 3 - yr bond at 4.95%; China CITIC Bank London Branch issued 300mn USD 3 - yr bond at SOFR + 50; Li & Fung issued 300mn USD 3.5NC2 bond at 8.75% [14] - Pipeline: No new issues pipeline today [15] News and Market Color - 93 credit bonds were issued onshore yesterday with an amount of RMB51bn; month - to - date, 1,971 credit bonds were issued with RMB2,075bn raised, a 13.8% yoy increase [16] - Adani Green's 2,200MW pumped hydro - storage power projects were scrapped at its request; Alibaba inks AI strategic partnership with Standard Chartered Bank [16] Company - Specific News - SK Hynix raises capex for high - bandwidth memory facility by 32% to KRW29tn (cUSD21bn) [19] - MIND ID 1Q25 revenue rises 74.6% yoy to IDR44.2tn (cUSD2.7bn) [19] - Lai Sun Development seeks to sell 50% stake in CCB Tower in Hong Kong [19] - LG Innotek to acquire stake in US tech firm Aeva for AI strategic collaboration [19] - Logan considers proposing a deeper haircut under offshore debt restructuring [19] - Nissan to consolidate Mexico production in one plant [19] - South Korean president blasts POSCO unit over fatal workplace accidents [19] - SK On plans to raise KRW2tn (cUSD1.4bn) through stock price return swap [19] - San Miguel Corp completed the redemption of SMCPM 5.5 Perp [19] - SoftBank - backed eyewear chain filed for up to USD923mn India IPO [19] - Tata Motors nears USD4.5bn acquisition of Iveco [19] - Vedanta may not get PCF providers' consent to prepay facility on 8 Aug'25 [19]
每日投资策略-20250730
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2025-07-30 02:29
Core Insights - The report highlights the mixed performance of the Chinese stock market, with A-shares showing potential for greater rebound compared to Hong Kong stocks due to economic rebalancing policies [2] - The report emphasizes the strong growth in the CDMO sector driven by robust demand for commercial production in the pharmaceutical market post-COVID-19 [4] - The report indicates that WuXi AppTec (药明康德) has shown impressive revenue growth despite macroeconomic uncertainties, with a 20.6% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first half of 2025 [3][4] Industry Analysis - The WAIC conference showcased trends in technology innovation, with companies like Tencent and JD.com accelerating their AI applications and open-source ecosystems [3] - The report notes that the demand for AI applications, particularly in the fields of robotics and autonomous driving, is expected to support the growth of cloud services in the internet sector [3] - The semiconductor industry is highlighted with Samsung's significant investment in the U.S. for advanced chip packaging, which could challenge TSMC's dominance [2] Company Analysis - WuXi AppTec's TIDES revenue surged by 141.6% year-on-year, prompting management to raise the full-year revenue growth forecast from 60% to 80% [4][5] - The company has seen a 37.2% year-on-year increase in its order backlog, particularly in the TIDES business, indicating strong future demand [5] - WuXi AppTec's management has adjusted its full-year guidance, expecting a 13-17% growth in continuous operating revenue, reflecting strong business execution [3][6]
WAIC大会:聚焦科技创新、普惠、协同共治
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2025-07-30 01:25
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry is expected to perform better than the market benchmark over the next 12 months [56]. Core Insights - The WAIC conference highlighted key trends in technology innovation, emphasizing the acceleration of intelligent agent applications by companies like Tencent and JD.com, the rapid development of open-source ecosystems supporting AI, and the focus on world models and embodied intelligence [5][4]. - The report recommends companies with strong technological capabilities and broad application scenarios, including Alibaba, Tencent, Kuaishou, Baidu, Horizon Robotics, Li Auto, and Xpeng, as they are expected to benefit from the increasing demand for large model applications [5][4]. Summary by Sections AI Development and Applications - Tencent has launched over 10 intelligent agents across various verticals, while JD.com has open-sourced its JoyAgent intelligent agent [5][4]. - Alibaba's Tongyi Qianwen has surpassed 400 million downloads, with over 140,000 derivative models created [5][4]. - The report notes that Tencent's mixed 3D world model 1.0 significantly simplifies the 3D scene construction process, enhancing efficiency in game development and digital content creation [9][4]. Autonomous Driving - The report identifies a dual inflection point in the autonomous driving sector, with improved regulatory environments and the introduction of Tesla's advanced Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology in China expected to boost competition [4][5]. - The penetration rate of L2+ autonomous driving vehicles in China is estimated to be around 30-35%, with projections indicating it could exceed 50% by 2026 [4][5]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies with robust technological foundations and diverse application scenarios, specifically highlighting Alibaba, Tencent, Kuaishou, Baidu, Horizon Robotics, Li Auto, and Xpeng [5][4]. - The anticipated growth in cloud business driven by the increasing demand for large model applications is expected to support the stock performance of these companies [5][4].
固定收益部市场日报-20250729
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2025-07-29 07:50
Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - Asian IGs tightened by 1 - 3bps this morning, indicating a positive trend in the Asian investment - grade bond market [3] - Li & Fung's tender offer and new issue are beneficial to perp holders, and the company plans to reduce debt and adjust its balance sheet [7][8][9] - Zhongsheng's early redemption of ZHOSHK 3 01/13/26 reflects sufficient liquidity, and ZHOSHK 5.98 01/30/28 remains a good shorter - dated carry play [14] Summary by Related Catalogs Trading Desk Comments - In KR, LGENSO 26 - 35s tightened by 2 - 5bps; in Chinese IGs, BABA 31/MEITUA 30 tightened 1bp, ZHOSHK 26 - 28s were unchanged to 1bp tighter [1] - In financials, CSILTD priced a 3yr floating - rated bond at SOFR + 60; SUMIBK/STANLN Float 28 - 31s tightened 1 - 3bps [1] - In insurance, SHIKON 35 tightened 1bp, NSINTW 34 widened 1bp; ASAMLI Perps/MYLIFE 55s were up 0.1pt [1] - In AT1s, HSBC 6.95/LLOYDS 8/BACR 7.625 Perps were 0.2 - 0.4pt higher; in HK, BNKEA/DAHSIN/NANYAN 31 - 34s tightened 1 - 3bps [1] - In Chinese properties, DALWAN 26 was down 0.7pt; RAODKG 28 - 30s/Perps were 0.2pt lower to 0.3pt higher [1] - Outside properties, EHICAR 26 - 27s were 1.2 - 1.4pts higher; in SE Asia, GLPSP 28/Perps were 0.8 - 1.6pts higher [1] - VEDLN 28 - 33s were up 0.1 - 0.3pt; VLLPM 29 lowered 1.2pts; PTTEPT/PTTTB 42s were 0.6pt lower [1] - In CNH space, CCAMCL priced 3.5yr and 5yr CNH bonds at 2.35% and 2.43% respectively; onshore AAA guaranteed CNH LGFVs tightened 20 - 50bps [2] - BADNHI 6.9 28s/ZBZCHD 6.9 28s were 0.5 - 2.7pts higher; in SOE perps, CHPWCN Perp was up 0.1pt [4] Last Trading Day's Top Movers - Top performers included KAFEDI 6 1/2 06/04/28 with a price of 96.3 and a change of 2.7, GLPSP 4 1/2 PERP with a price of 55.3 and a change of 1.6 [5] - Top underperformers included TSIVMG 1.55 12/17/29 with a price of 70.4 and a change of - 1.2, VLLPM 9 3/8 07/29/29 with a price of 64.5 and a change of - 1.2 [5] Marco News Recap - On Monday, S&P was up 0.02%, Dow was down 0.14%, and Nasdaq was up 0.33%; long - term UST yield was higher, with 2/5/10/30 yield at 3.91%/3.96%/4.42%/4.96% [6] Desk Analyst Comments - Li & Fung launched a tender offer for LIFUNG 5.25 Perp at USD55, with a maximum acceptance amount of USD50mn, funded by a new 3.5NC2 USD bond [7] - The FV of the new LIFUNG 29 is expected to be mid - 8% vs IPT at 9% [7] - The tender offer is seen as a de facto voluntary partial exchange beneficial to perp holders [8] - With new issuance proceeds and cash on hand, Li & Fung plans to redeem bonds, repay loans, and adjust its balance sheet [9] - Zhongsheng announced to make - whole ZHOSHK 3 01/13/26 on 27 Aug'25, reflecting sufficient liquidity [14] - ZHOSHK 5.98 01/30/28 is considered a good shorter - dated carry play, and a buy recommendation is maintained [14] Offshore Asia New Issues - No offshore Asia new issues were priced today; in the pipeline, Chengdu Xisheng Investment Group plans a 3yr issue, China CITIC Bank London Branch plans a 3yr issue of up to USD300mn, and Li & Fung plans a 3.5NC2 issue [18] News and Market Color - 84 credit bonds were issued yesterday onshore with an amount of RMB92bn; month - to - date, 1,881 credit bonds were issued with a total amount of RMB2,024bn, a 15.2% yoy increase [21] - Adani Green Energy 1Q26 total revenue rose 36% yoy to INR38bn (cUSD439.2mn) [21] - Diamond Power won an INR13.5bn (cUSD155.6mn) order from Adani Energy Solutions [21] - China Cinda AMC issued 3.5y CNH3bn bonds at 2.35% and 5yr CNH2.3bn bonds at 2.43% [21] - Lippo Cikarang's 1H25 presales reached 48% of FY25 target [21] - SJM Holdings agreed to buy a property in Zhuhai for RMB724.2mn (cUSD101.1mn) [21]
每日投资策略-20250729
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2025-07-29 02:25
Global Market Overview - The Chinese stock market is experiencing an upward trend, with innovative pharmaceuticals leading the charge. Heng Rui Pharmaceutical has secured a $500 million upfront payment and potential orders worth $12 billion from foreign pharmaceutical companies [2] - Strong performance in computing hardware stocks, particularly in CPO and PCB sectors. Insurance stocks are also performing well, with Xinhua Insurance reaching a historical high [2] - Macau's satellite casinos are set to cease operations by the end of the year, with two being acquired by Aobo Holdings, signaling a shift in the gaming industry [2] - Recent trading restrictions have led to significant declines in coking coal and other cyclical stocks, while the yield on RMB government bonds has decreased slightly [2] Economic Policies and Impacts - The Chinese government is implementing economic rebalancing policies, including annual childcare subsidies of 3,600 yuan for children aged 0-3, which will cost approximately 100 billion yuan. Additionally, free preschool education will be gradually introduced, costing around 400 billion yuan [2] - These policies are expected to boost household consumption by approximately 0.6% and nominal GDP by about 0.25% [2] - The market regulatory authority is taking steps to address low-quality competition among enterprises and enhance safety regulations for food, pharmaceuticals, and industrial products [2] International Market Trends - European stock markets have declined, although the semiconductor sector has seen gains. A trade agreement between the US and Europe has been reached, but investors perceive it as more beneficial to the US [2] - In the US, stock performance is mixed, with energy, information technology, and consumer discretionary sectors rising, while real estate, materials, and utilities are down. Nvidia shares have rebounded nearly 2%, contributing to new highs for the stock index [2] - Investors are closely monitoring upcoming earnings reports from major tech companies such as Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon, focusing on future profit guidance and AI capital expenditure [2] Market Indicators - US Treasury yields have slightly increased, and the dollar index has surged. Oil prices have rebounded to a two-week high amid threats of sanctions against Russia by Trump [2] - Gold prices have experienced a pullback [2]
固定收益部市场日报-20250728
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2025-07-28 07:07
Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - Asia IGs tightened 1 - 3bps this morning, and the credit profile of Vedanta Resources (VRL) continues to improve, with the recommendation to buy VEDLN 10.875 09/17/29 and change the recommendation on VEDLN 9.475 07/24/30 from neutral to buy [3][7][8] - Onshore primary issuances showed a 15% yoy increase in the amount of credit bonds issued month - to - date [17] Summary by Related Catalogs Trading Desk Comments - In KR, LGENSO 26 - 35s tightened 1 - 4bps, and its 2Q25 operating profit rose 31% qoq from 1Q25; HYUELE 26 - 33s were unchanged [1] - In insurance, CATLIF 34/39 tightened 1 - 2bps; MYLIFE/NIPLIF 54s and ASAMLI Perps were up 0.1 - 0.3pt [1] - In JP, NSANY 26 - 30s were unchanged to 1.0pt higher [1] - In HK, NWDEVL Perps/27 - 31s were unchanged to 0.4pt higher; HYSAN Perps were 0.4 - 0.8pt higher; LASUDE 26 rose 0.7pt; LIFUNG Perp lowered 0.8pt, closed 2.8pts higher WoW [1] - In Chinese properties, DALWAN 26 was up 0.8pt; ROADKG 28 - 30s were 0.2 - 1.3pts lower, closed 3.8 - 5.6pts lower WoW; ROADKG Perps were 0.1pt higher, closed unchanged to 0.1pt lower WoW [1] - Outside properties, EHICAR 26 - 27s were up 0.4 - 0.9pt; WESCHI 26 was up 0.3pt, closed 4.1pts higher WoW; FOSUNI 25 - 27s lowered 0.1 - 0.5pt [1] - In SE Asia, GLPSP Perps/28 were up 0.4 - 1.7pts, closed 1.2 - 2.5pts higher WoW; VLLPM 29 was up 0.8pt; VEDLN 28 - 33s were unchanged to 0.1pt higher [1] - In CNH space, the new CNH TEMASE 30/35/55 and CNH CHMEDA 30/35 were unchanged to 0.1pt lower [2] - In LGFVs, BINHCO priced 3yr bond at par to yield 4.95% (IPT at 5.8% area); DAZAKI priced 3yr bond at par to yield 7% (IPT at 7% area); SCDFGU priced 3yr bond at par to yield 6.8% (IPT at 6.8% area) [2] Last Trading Day's Top Movers - Top Performers: GLPSP 4.6 PERP rose 1.7pts to 51.2; GLPSP 4 1/2 PERP rose 1.4pts to 53.8; TSIVMG 1.55 12/17/29 rose 1.4pts to 71.5; NSANY 4.81 09/17/30 rose 1.0pts to 92.5; NSANY 7 3/4 07/17/32 rose 1.0pts to 102.4 [5] - Top Underperformers: ROADKG 5 1/8 01/26/30 dropped 1.3pts to 21.3; LIFUNG 5 1/4 PERP dropped 0.8pts to 50.7; ROADKG 5.2 07/12/29 dropped 0.7pts to 23.0; ROADKG 5.9 09/05/28 dropped 0.6pts to 24.3; FOSUNI 5.95 10/19/25 dropped 0.5pts to 100.0 [5] Macro News Recap - S&P (+0.40%), Dow (+0.47%) and Nasdaq (+0.24%) were higher on last Friday [6] - The EU reached a tariff deal with the US, facing 15% tariffs on most of its exports [6] - The US Jun'25 Durable Goods Orders was - 9.3% mom, compared to the market expectation of - 10.4% [6] - UST yield was lower on last Friday, with 2/5/10/30 yield at 3.91%/3.95%/4.40%/4.92% [6] Desk Analyst Comments - Vedanta Resources will prepay the remaining USD550mn of its PCF in Aug'25, funded by bank facilities with lower interest costs [7] - VRL may consider a buyback of its USD bonds after PCF refinancing and demerger [7] - The credit profile of VRL continues to improve, with lengthened debt maturity and lowered funding costs [8] - The performance of VEDLNs may be supported by potential early redemptions [8] Offshore Asia New Issues - Priced: Dazhou Kaisheng Construction issued 70mn USD 3 - yr bond at 7.0% yield; Sichuan Zigong Huidong Development issued 69.5mn USD 3 - yr bond at 6.8% yield; Tianjin Binhai New Area Construction & Investment Group issued 244mn USD 3 - yr bond at 4.95% yield [12] - Pipeline: No offshore Asia new issues pipeline today [13] News and Market Color - Regarding onshore primary issuances, 77 credit bonds were issued last Friday with an amount of RMB84bn; month - to - date, 1,797 credit bonds were issued with a total amount of RMB1,930bn, a 15% yoy increase [17] - Macau visitors climbed 15% yoy in 1H25 with a jump in same - day travelers [17] - Alibaba halves prices of cutting - edge AI model and a senior executive is accused of taking USD5.6mn in bribes [17] - First Pacific's Philippine power arm expects higher FY25 earnings [17] - Fantasia further delays offshore debt restructuring closing to 1 Aug'25 [17] - Li & Fung gives tender priority to bondholders who also subscribe to new bonds [17] - China Vanke sells a project for RMB1.4bn (cUSD195mn) [17]