Industry Insights - The Chinese construction machinery industry is experiencing strong sales growth for truck cranes and crawler cranes, with December sales showing a year-on-year increase of 39% and 96% respectively, driven by demand from wind power installation and other energy projects [2] - The export performance of various construction machinery types, excluding tower cranes, was also strong in December, indicating a sustained upward cycle in non-earthmoving machinery demand expected to last until 2026 [2] - Recommended stocks include Zoomlion (1157 HK / 000157 CH, Buy), followed by Hengli Hydraulic (601100 CH, Buy) and Sany Heavy Industry (6031 HK / 600031 CH, Buy) [2] - Caution is advised regarding Zhejiang Dingli (603338 CH, Hold) due to weak sales in the aerial work platform sector, which saw an 8% year-on-year decline in December, despite some improvement [2] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,845, down 0.29% for the day but up 4.74% year-to-date [3] - The Hang Seng Tech Index closed at 5,822, down 0.11% for the day and up 5.55% year-to-date [3] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,102, down 0.26% for the day and up 3.35% year-to-date [3] Semiconductor Industry - TSMC reported strong FY25 results with revenue of $122 billion, a year-on-year increase of 35.9%, and a gross profit margin of 59.9% [5] - In Q4 2025, TSMC's revenue reached $33.7 billion, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.9%, with a gross profit margin rising to 62.3% due to cost improvements and favorable exchange rates [5] - TSMC's guidance for Q1 2026 revenue is between $34.6 billion and $35.8 billion, with a gross profit margin of 63% to 65%, and the 2026 revenue growth forecast has been raised to approximately 30%, significantly above the industry growth estimate of 14% [5] - The company plans to increase its capital expenditure for 2026 to between $52 billion and $56 billion, indicating proactive capacity expansion to meet AI-driven demand [5]

Macro Commentary - The Chinese economy shows signs of moderate monetary policy easing, with a continued slowdown in the growth of social financing stock expected by the end of 2025, and a significant decline in M1 growth, indicating weakened economic activity and private sector confidence [2][6] - The credit structure reveals an imbalance in economic supply and demand, with the corporate sector remaining the main driver of credit expansion, while the household sector continues to deleverage [2] Global Market Performance - Major global stock indices showed varied performance, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 26,924, down 0.28% for the day but up 5.05% year-to-date [3] - The US stock market experienced a rebound, with utilities, industrials, and real estate leading gains, while energy, healthcare, and communication services sectors declined [5] Sector Performance in Hong Kong - In Hong Kong, the consumer discretionary, healthcare, and information technology sectors led declines, while real estate, energy, and industrial sectors saw gains [5] - The Hang Seng Financial Index rose by 0.68% to 50,996, while the Hang Seng Real Estate Index increased by 1.32% to 19,105 [4] Company Analysis - Jitu (1519 HK) is rated as a "Buy" with a target price of HKD 13.4, following a share swap agreement with SF Express, which is expected to enhance product offerings and market reach [6] - WuXi AppTec (2268 HK) is also rated as a "Buy" with a target price of HKD 88.00, anticipating a revenue increase of at least 45% and net profit growth of at least 38% for 2025 [7][10] - WuXi AppTec's strong performance is attributed to a record number of new contracts in drug development and production, with significant growth in XDC projects and a strategic acquisition of Dongyao Pharmaceutical to enhance production capacity [8][9][10]

Macro Analysis - China's economy is facing challenges in rebalancing, with a projected 5.5% growth in goods exports for 2025, driven by strengthened trade relations with non-US regions and the restructuring of global supply chains [2] - The trade surplus has reached a record $1.19 trillion, accounting for 6.1% of GDP, while imports have stagnated due to weak domestic demand and overcapacity [2] - GDP growth has slowed significantly since Q3 2025, with expectations of further decline in Q1 2026, prompting potential new stimulus measures from policymakers [2] Industry Analysis - The global large model market is expected to reach $206.5 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 80.7% from 2024 to 2029, driven by the commercialization of AI applications [6] - The AI application market is projected to grow to $151.5 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 84.4% [6] - Key players in the C-end AI application space include ByteDance, Tencent, and Alibaba, with specific focus areas such as AI general assistants and visual generation [6] Company Analysis - Q Technology (1478 HK) has reported a significant earnings increase of 400-450% for FY25, exceeding market expectations, primarily driven by growth in non-mobile businesses and camera module upgrades [7] - The non-mobile business is expected to be the main growth driver, with projected revenue growth of 42% and 30% for FY26E and FY27E, respectively [7] - The new target price for Q Technology is set at HKD 13.18, based on a 17x P/E ratio for FY26E, reflecting the challenges in the smartphone industry [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Asian fixed - rate IG credits tightened by 1 - 4bps this morning. Some bonds like VLLPM 29 were down, while PMBROV 30 recovered [3] - The FV of the new SUNHKC 29 is expected to be mid - 6% compared to an IPT of 6.75% [3][7] - Yuexiu REIT is gauging investor interest in USD/CNH bonds to refinance USD400mn YXREIT 2.65 02/02/26 [3][17] Summary by Directory Trading Desk Comments - Yesterday, new POHANG 31 - 36s/SKBTAM 29 tightened 3 - 5bps due to buying from Chinese onshore accounts, and new CSILTD Float 31 widened 1bp. Chinese IG credits tightened 1 - 3bps overall, with strong buying in beta names. Some bonds like EHICAR 26 - 27 were down, while NWDEVL/VDNWDL complex rose [2] - In Chinese properties, VNKRLE 27 - 29 were down, and Vanke proposed revised terms for its onshore bond. FUTLAN 28/FTLNHD 26 - 27 had mixed performance [2] - In JP space, SUMIBK/MUFG 5yr FRNs tightened. In SE Asia, BBLTB subs tightened, and GARUDA 31s surged. In the Middle East, FABUH 31s had block - size trading but closed unchanged. In AU space, CRNAU 29/PMBROV 30 were down [2] Macro News Recap - On Wednesday, S&P (-0.19%), Dow (-0.80%), and Nasdaq (-0.10%) were lower. US approved Nvidia H200 chip exports to China with conditions. UST yield was lower, with 2/5/10/30 - year yield at 3.53%/3.75%/4.18%/4.83% [6] Desk Analyst Comments - Sun Hung Kai proposes to issue a 3yr USD senior unsecured bond. The FV of the new SUNHKC 29 is seen as mid - 6% vs IPT at 6.75%, considering peer valuation and tenor differential [7] - Proceeds from the new issue will fund a tender offer for SUNHKC 5 09/07/26 and for general working capital. The tender price is at par, and SHK may prioritize allocation to tendering bondholders. Tender offer settlement depends on new bond issue settlement [8] - SHK is 74.6% - owned by Allied Group and ultimately by Lee and Lee Trust. It has businesses in credit, investment management, and fund management. In 1H25, it had a 43.5% yoy income increase, with credit and fund management contributing 62% of total income [9] - In 1H25, pre - tax profit increased, ROE rose, and leverage metrics improved. As of Jun'25, it had cash of HKD2.8bn and total debts of HKD11.0bn, with 52% due within one year [10] Offshore Asia New Issues - No offshore Asia new issues were priced today [14] - ANZ New Zealand (Int'l) London Branch and Sun Hung Kai are in the pipeline for new issues, with ANZ having 3yr/5yr options and Sun Hung Kai a 3yr bond at 6.75% [15] News and Market Color - Yesterday, 112 onshore credit bonds were issued with an amount of RMB107bn. Month - to - date, 645 credit bonds were issued, raising RMB517bn, a 20.3% yoy decrease [16] - Biocon's INR41.5bn QIP attracted 4x demand. CAS accepted USD580.629mn of CASHLD 4 Perp in a tender offer. Piramal Finance raised USD350mn. SJM accepted USD170.115mn of SJMHOL 4.5 01/27/2026 in a tender offer [16] - Vanke proposed revised terms for an onshore bond extension, and Yuexiu REIT is gauging investor interest in bonds for refinancing [16][17] Top Performers and Underperformers - Top performers include NWDEVL and GARUDA bonds with significant price increases, while top underperformers like CRNAU, ARAMCO, and PMBROV bonds had price drops [4]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperforming the Market," indicating expected performance above market benchmarks over the next 12 months [52]. Core Insights - The global large model market is projected to reach USD 206.5 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 80.7% from 2024 to 2029. The application market for large models is expected to grow to USD 151.5 billion during the same period, with a CAGR of 84.4% [10][12]. - The report focuses on C-end AI applications, highlighting that companies with model capabilities, product capabilities, and financial resources are likely to lead in their respective segments [13][16]. - The AI general assistant sector is expected to see leading companies like ByteDance, Tencent, Alibaba, and DeepSeek form a top tier in China, while the competition remains dynamic [17][23]. - The AI companionship applications are anticipated to grow significantly, with a projected global market revenue of approximately USD 700 billion by 2030, reflecting a CAGR of 200% from 2023 to 2030 [27][30]. - The AI visual generation market is expected to reach USD 16.6 billion by 2027, with a CAGR of 66% from 2025 to 2027, with leading companies including Google Veo and Kuaishou Keling [36][40]. Summary by Sections Large Model Applications - The global large model market is expected to grow from USD 10.7 billion in 2024 to USD 206.5 billion by 2029, driven by continuous iterations and increased penetration of AI applications [10][12]. - The application market for large models is projected to grow from USD 7.1 billion in 2024 to USD 151.5 billion by 2029, indicating a strong growth trajectory [10][12]. AI General Assistants - Leading companies in the AI general assistant sector include OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and xAI, with a significant market share based on token usage [19][22]. - In China, the competition is still in its early stages, with ByteDance's Doubao leading in user numbers but facing challenges in model capabilities [17][23]. AI Companionship Applications - The AI companionship market is in its early development stage, with a projected user penetration rate exceeding 40% by 2030, leading to substantial revenue growth [27][30]. - Leading applications in this sector include Character AI, Minimax Talkie, and ByteDance's Cat Box, with significant user growth reported [30][32]. AI Visual Generation - The AI visual generation market is expected to grow significantly, with Kuaishou Keling and Google Veo being key players [36][40]. - Kuaishou Keling is set to release multiple updates that could enhance its market position, with revenue projections indicating a strong performance [44][49].

Market Overview - Global markets showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.90% and the Shanghai Composite Index declining by 0.64% [1][3] - The US stock market experienced slight declines, with the Dow Jones down by 0.80% and the S&P 500 down by 0.19% [1][3] - Japanese stocks reached new highs, supported by expectations of continued expansionary fiscal policies [3] Hong Kong Stock Performance - The Hang Seng Financial Index increased by 1.36%, while the Hang Seng Real Estate Index rose by 0.42% [2] - The Hang Seng Commercial Index saw a 0.70% increase, indicating positive sentiment in the commercial sector [2] Chinese Stock Market Insights - The Chinese stock market exhibited mixed results, with sectors such as defense and electronics facing declines, while oil and pharmaceuticals showed gains [3] - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of HKD 1.296 billion, with notable purchases in Alibaba, Tencent, and Xiaomi [3] Company Analysis: JD.com - JD.com is projected to achieve total revenue of RMB 349.2 billion in Q4 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.6% [5] - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to drop significantly by 96% to RMB 484 million, primarily due to increased investment in the delivery business and high base effects from the previous year [5] - The target price for JD.com has been adjusted to USD 46.8, reflecting a downward revision in profit forecasts [5] Company Analysis: China Resources Mixc Lifestyle - China Resources Mixc Lifestyle is expected to see a revenue increase of 6.5% to RMB 18.2 billion for FY25, with core net profit projected to grow by 10.8% to RMB 3.9 billion [6] - The commercial segment is anticipated to grow by 13.8%, while the residential segment remains stable [6] - The target price has been raised to HKD 53.96, reflecting a 9% increase in valuation multiples due to reduced reliance on residential business [6][7] Shopping Center Sector Insights - The shopping center sector is expected to see retail sales growth of 20-25% in FY25, driven by new consumer trends [7] - The segment's revenue is projected to grow by 18%, influenced by high base effects from the previous year [7] Residential Sector Insights - The residential sector is expected to maintain stable revenue growth of 1.3%, with property management services showing resilience [8] - The company is likely to maintain a 100% dividend payout ratio, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns [8]

Global Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,608, up 1.44% for the day and 3.82% year-to-date [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 3.10% for the day and 6.29% year-to-date, indicating strong performance in the technology sector [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.09% for the day and 4.95% year-to-date, reflecting positive sentiment in the Chinese market [1] Hong Kong Stock Performance - The Hang Seng Financial Index closed at 50,080, with a slight increase of 0.14% year-to-date [2] - The Hang Seng Industrial Index saw a rise of 2.26% for the day and 4.53% year-to-date, indicating robust performance in industrial stocks [2] - The Hang Seng Real Estate Index increased by 1.02% for the day and 6.95% year-to-date, suggesting a positive trend in the real estate sector [2] Chinese Market Dynamics - Chinese stocks saw gains, particularly in consumer discretionary, information technology, and materials sectors, while energy, finance, and utilities lagged [3] - Southbound capital recorded a net inflow of 7.306 billion HKD, with notable net purchases in Kuaishou, Tencent, and Xiaomi [3] - A surge in demand for storage chips is impacting the testing and packaging industry, with companies raising prices due to high capacity utilization [3] U.S. Market Insights - U.S. stocks opened lower but closed slightly higher, with consumer staples, industrials, and materials leading the gains [3] - The U.S. Department of Justice is investigating Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which initially pressured the market but was mitigated by reassurances from the White House [3] - Google’s market capitalization surpassed 4 trillion USD, and Apple announced plans to use Google’s Gemini model for future AI products, indicating significant developments in the tech sector [3] Investment Trends - Emerging market ETFs attracted a net inflow of 3.97 billion USD, with Chinese ETFs leading in capital attraction, reflecting growing investor interest in Chinese assets [3] - The demand for AI data centers is reshaping the DRAM market, with AI-related demand accounting for 50%-60% of the market, indicating a structural shift in supply and demand dynamics [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" for companies such as 三生制药 (1530 HK), 固生堂 (2273 HK), 药明合联 (2268 HK), and 中国生物制药 (1177 HK) [3][4][32]. Core Insights - The MSCI China Healthcare Index has increased by 11.8% since the beginning of 2026, outperforming the MSCI China Index which rose by 9.1%. The pharmaceutical sector has seen significant growth due to strong institutional investor interest at the start of the year following a valuation correction in Q4 of the previous year [2]. - The trend of innovative drugs going overseas is expected to continue in the long term, with a focus on the clinical progress and data validation of pipelines that have already gone abroad [2]. - The domestic innovative drug market is still relatively small, with an estimated market size of 300-400 billion RMB, of which domestic innovative drugs account for about 1/3, or 100-130 billion RMB. If the proportion of patented drugs in China reaches 66% like the global average, the market size could potentially reach around 760 billion RMB [6]. Summary by Sections Company Recommendations - Recommended companies for investment include 三生制药 (1530 HK), 固生堂 (2273 HK), 药明合联 (2268 HK), and 中国生物制药 (1177 HK) [3][4]. Market Trends - The market for domestic innovative drugs is characterized by high demand due to aging populations, weak pricing from insurance negotiations, strong competition, and short product life cycles. The global pharmaceutical market is projected to reach 1.74 trillion USD in 2024, with China's market size at 166 billion USD, representing only 9.5% of the global market [6]. - The potential market size for domestic innovative drugs going abroad could reach 110 billion USD, nearly 800 billion RMB, if one-third of the global patented drug market is sourced from China [6]. Clinical Development and Financials - In 2025, the total transaction amount for BD (business development) licensing for Chinese innovative drugs is expected to reach 135.65 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 161%, with 70 million USD in upfront payments [6]. - Basic medical insurance expenditure showed a slight recovery in 2025, with cumulative spending growth of 0.5% and income growth of 2.9%, indicating a shift in the growth catalyst from insurance to out-of-pocket and commercial insurance [6].

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,232, up 0.32% for the day and 2.35% year-to-date [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.92% to 4,120, with a year-to-date increase of 3.82% [1] - The US markets showed positive performance, with the Dow Jones up 0.48% and the S&P 500 up 0.65% [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - In the Hong Kong market, the financial sector increased by 0.20%, while the real estate sector rose by 0.32% [2] - Chinese stocks saw gains in materials, consumer discretionary, and integrated enterprises, while consumer staples and utilities declined [3] - The MSCI China Healthcare Index has risen by 11.8% since the beginning of 2026, outperforming the MSCI China Index which increased by 9.1% [5] Group 3: Economic Indicators - China's CPI growth has slightly increased, reaching a near two-year high, driven by rising food and gold jewelry prices [4] - The US non-farm payrolls for December fell short of expectations, indicating a weakening job market, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.4% [4] - The basic medical insurance expenditure in China showed a recovery with a 0.5% growth in 2025, compared to a 5.5% increase in 2024 [9] Group 4: Pharmaceutical Industry Insights - The market size for patented drugs in China is estimated to be around 300-400 billion RMB, with domestic innovative drugs accounting for about 1/3 of this market [6] - The global pharmaceutical market is projected to reach 1.74 trillion USD, with China's market size at 166 billion USD, representing only 9.5% of the global market [7] - The trend of Chinese innovative drugs going overseas is expected to continue, with a significant increase in BD (business development) transactions projected for 2025 [8]

Employment Data - In December, the U.S. added 50,000 non-farm jobs, below the market expectation of 70,000[6] - The October and November employment figures were revised down by a total of 76,000[6] - Private sector job growth fell significantly from 50,000 in November to 37,000 in December[6] Unemployment Rate - The unemployment rate decreased to 4.4% in December, better than the expected 4.5%[6] - November's unemployment rate was revised slightly down to 4.54%[6] - Labor force participation rate declined to 62.4%, influenced by retirements and reduced labor supply[6] Sector Performance - Job losses in the goods-producing sector totaled 21,000 in December, with construction and manufacturing losing 11,000 and 8,000 jobs respectively[6] - Service sector jobs increased from 32,000 in November to 58,000 in December, primarily in leisure and hospitality, and education and healthcare[6] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points once in June, largely as a political statement with the new chair[6] - Economic growth is anticipated to rebound in the first half of the year due to tax cuts, despite inflation pressures from commodity prices[6] - In the second half, economic growth may slow again, with inflation potentially rising due to stabilizing oil and rent prices[6]