Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Microsoft (MSFT US) with a target price of $510.30, indicating a potential upside of 11.3% from the current price of $458.68 [3][4]. Core Insights - Microsoft aims to build an open AI agent network, transitioning from isolated AI models to interconnected agents with distinct identities, facilitated through Azure and Windows platforms [1][10]. - The report highlights three core trends from the Build 2025 conference: 1) Multi-model and multi-agent collaboration; 2) Low-cost inference on the edge; 3) Unified identity governance and observability [1]. - Microsoft continues to strengthen its position in AI cloud services and applications, supported by its extensive developer and enterprise customer ecosystem [1][13]. Financial Overview - For FY23A, Microsoft reported sales revenue of $211,915 million, with a year-on-year growth of 6.9%. Projections for FY24A and FY25E are $245,122 million and $283,148 million, reflecting growth rates of 15.7% and 15.5% respectively [9][27]. - Net profit for FY23A was $72,361 million, with a projected increase to $88,136 million in FY24A and $101,947 million in FY25E, showing year-on-year growth rates of 21.8% and 15.7% [9][27]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from $9.72 in FY23A to $11.86 in FY24A and $13.75 in FY25E [9][27]. Shareholder Structure - Vanguard holds 8.7% and BlackRock holds 7.2% of Microsoft's shares, indicating significant institutional investment [5]. Stock Performance - Over the past month, Microsoft's stock has returned 16.0%, outperforming the market by 5.6% [6].

Investment Rating - Maintain BUY rating for Li Auto Inc. with a target price of US$33.00 (or HK$131) based on a revised FY26E P/E of 17x [1][6] Core Views - Li Auto's 1Q25 net profit aligned with forecasts, and cost reduction efforts exceeded expectations, providing a foundation for FY25E earnings resilience despite a lowered full-year sales volume forecast [1][6] - The facelifted Mega model has been well-received, indicating potential for upcoming BEVs, with new orders significantly exceeding expectations [1][6] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY25E are RMB 161,161 million, reflecting a 7% decrease from previous estimates, while net profit is projected at RMB 10,361 million, a 13% reduction [8][9] - FY25E sales volume forecast has been cut by 8% to 0.58 million units, with expectations for FY26E sales volume to rise 24% YoY to 0.72 million units [6][8] - Gross margin is expected to slightly decline to 20.3% in FY25E, with operating profit projected at RMB 8,280 million [8][10] Earnings Summary - FY23A revenue was RMB 123,851 million, with a YoY growth of 173.5%, while FY24A revenue is projected at RMB 144,460 million, showing a 16.6% growth [2][10] - Net profit for FY24A is expected to be RMB 8,032 million, down 31.4% from FY23A, but projected to recover with a 29% increase in FY25E [2][10] Cost Management - Li Auto has reduced its FY25 R&D expense guidance to RMB 11-12 billion and cut SG&A expenses forecast by 8% to RMB 12.5 billion, indicating strong cost control measures [6][8] Market Performance - Li Auto's stock has shown a 1-month increase of 16.8% and a 6-month increase of 20.3%, indicating positive market sentiment [5]

Industry Insights - The semiconductor industry is experiencing strong demand, as evidenced by NVIDIA's Q1 performance, which reported revenue of $44.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 69.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.0%, surpassing Bloomberg consensus estimates [2] - NVIDIA's non-GAAP gross margin was 61.0%, and if excluding a $4.5 billion impairment related to H20, it would be 71.3%, slightly above market expectations [2] - The management anticipates Q2 revenue to reach $45 billion, reflecting a 50% year-on-year growth and a 12% quarter-on-quarter increase, indicating sustained AI demand [2] Company Analysis - Ideal Auto (LI US/2015 HK) reported Q1 2025 earnings in line with expectations, with a gross margin of 20.5%, exceeding predictions by 1.3 percentage points due to effective cost control [5][6] - SANY International (631 HK) achieved a 23% year-on-year increase in net profit for Q1 2025, driven by growth in large port machinery and oil and gas equipment, alleviating market concerns about growth prospects [6] - Salesforce (CRM US) reported Q1 FY26 revenue of $9.8 billion, a year-on-year growth of 8%, with cRPO increasing by 12% to $29.6 billion, indicating strong renewal performance and growth in data cloud and AI business [7][8] - Microsoft (MSFT US) is focusing on building an open AI agent network, with updates on three major AI platforms, which are expected to enhance AI product commercialization [8]

Global Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 23,258, down 1.45% for the day but up 36.43% year-to-date [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 1.38% for the day, with a year-to-date increase of 37.47% [1] - The US markets showed a positive trend with the Dow Jones up 1.19% and the S&P 500 up 1.48% [1] Hong Kong Stock Performance - The Hang Seng Financial Index decreased by 0.66% for the day, with a year-to-date increase of 36.07% [2] - The Hang Seng Industrial Index saw a decline of 2.02% for the day, but a year-to-date increase of 42.66% [2] - The Hang Seng Real Estate Index increased by 0.72% for the day, but is down 10.38% year-to-date [2] Chinese Stock Market Insights - On May 28, the Chinese stock market experienced a slight pullback, with profit-taking observed ahead of the MSCI index adjustment [3] - The A-share market saw declines in basic chemicals, agriculture, and defense sectors, while textiles, environmental protection, and coal sectors increased [3] - Southbound capital recorded a net inflow of HKD 35.78 billion [3] Focus Stocks - Geely Automobile (175 HK) is rated as a "Buy" with a target price of 24.00, indicating a potential upside of 35% from the current price of 17.80 [4] - Xpeng Motors (XPEV US) is also rated as a "Buy" with a target price of 28.00, representing a 45% upside from its current price of 19.33 [4] - Tencent (700 HK) is rated as a "Buy" with a target price of 660.00, suggesting a 31% upside from the current price of 504.50 [4] Sector Performance - The healthcare sector, represented by companies like BeiGene (ONC US) and Innovent Biologics (1801 HK), shows strong potential with target price increases of 50% and 3% respectively [4] - The semiconductor sector, including companies like Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) and Weir Group (603501 CH), is rated as "Buy" with target price increases of 20% and 38% respectively [4] - The consumer discretionary sector, represented by companies like Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US) and Atour Group (ATAT US), also shows positive ratings with target price increases of 28% and 6% respectively [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for PDD Holdings, with a target price adjusted to $134.5, reflecting a 21% decrease from the previous target price [1][4]. Core Insights - PDD Holdings reported a revenue growth of 10.2% year-on-year for Q1 2025, reaching RMB 95.7 billion, which was 6% below Bloomberg consensus expectations. This shortfall was primarily due to a 12% miss in transaction service fees, despite a 2% beat in online marketing services and other revenues [1][2]. - Non-GAAP net profit decreased by 45% year-on-year to RMB 16.9 billion, significantly below market expectations by 39%. This decline was attributed to higher-than-expected sales and marketing expenses aimed at matching the intensity of subsidies from other e-commerce platforms [1][3]. - The company has upgraded its platform ecosystem enhancement plan to improve supply quality and diversity, which is expected to impact profitability growth in the short term. The non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised down by 25-31% due to these factors [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, PDD's online marketing services and other revenues grew by 14.8% year-on-year to RMB 48.7 billion, exceeding market expectations by 2%. However, transaction service revenue only grew by 5.8% year-on-year to RMB 47 billion, missing market expectations by 12% [2][3]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) for Q1 2025 contracted to 57.2%, down from 62.3% in Q1 2024, primarily due to the underperformance of commission income, which typically has a higher gross margin [3][12]. Valuation Adjustments - The target price has been adjusted to $134.5 based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation, which includes a revised valuation of the main app at $83.1, unchanged valuation for Duoduo at $1.9, and Temu at $20.5, along with a net cash valuation of $29.0 [4][14]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025 have been revised down by 12.4% to RMB 434.6 billion, with adjusted net profit forecasts also lowered significantly. The adjusted net profit for 2025 is now expected to be RMB 94.9 billion, reflecting a decrease of 30.6% from previous estimates [13][16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Kuaishou, with a target price of HK$80.00, indicating a potential upside of 64.1% from the current price of HK$48.75 [3][20]. Core Insights - Kuaishou's 1Q25 results were in line with expectations, showing a total revenue increase of 11% YoY to RMB32.6 billion and an adjusted net profit rise of 4% YoY to RMB4.6 billion [1][2]. - The monetization of Kling AI is accelerating, generating over RMB150 million in 1Q25, and is expected to exceed RMB700 million in FY25E [1][8]. - Revenue growth is forecasted to continue, with an expected 12% YoY increase in total revenue for 2Q25E, driven by online marketing and e-commerce [1][8]. Financial Performance - For FY25E, total revenue is projected at RMB141.85 billion, with adjusted net profit expected to reach RMB20.12 billion [2][9]. - The adjusted net profit margin is anticipated to remain stable at around 14.2% for FY25E [9][18]. - The company is investing heavily in AI, with R&D expenses growing by 16% YoY to RMB3.3 billion in 1Q25, representing 10.1% of total revenue [8][18]. Revenue Breakdown - In 1Q25, online marketing revenue increased by 8% YoY to RMB18.0 billion, accounting for 55% of total revenue [8]. - Other services revenue grew by 15% YoY to RMB4.8 billion, while live streaming revenue rose by 14% YoY to RMB9.8 billion [8][11]. - E-commerce GMV increased by 15% YoY to RMB332.3 billion, supported by growth in both monthly paying users and GMV per user [8]. Valuation Metrics - Kuaishou is currently trading at a non-IFRS PE of 10x for FY25E, which is attractive compared to the sector average of 16x and its 2-year historical average of 15x [1][3]. - The SOTP-derived target price of HK$80.00 is based on valuations of its live streaming, online marketing, and e-commerce businesses, with respective contributions of HK$9.7, HK$23.4, and HK$39.7 per share [12][13][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 69.5, unchanged from previous assessments [2][10]. Core Insights - The company completed a placement of HKD 120 million on May 21, at a price of HKD 40 per share, to enhance upstream manufacturing capabilities and support general working capital [1][10]. - Revenue growth is projected to be between 27% and 33% from 2025 to 2027, with a gross margin expected to remain between 53% and 54% [2][10]. - The company’s stock price increased by 6.6% to HKD 47.6 as of May 21, following the placement announcement [1]. Financial Summary - **Sales Revenue (in million RMB)**: - FY23A: 464 - FY24A: 579 - FY25E: 770 (33% YoY growth) - FY26E: 1,006 (30.8% YoY growth) - FY27E: 1,284 (27.6% YoY growth) [3][14] - **Net Profit (in million RMB)**: - FY23A: 109.2 - FY24A: 166.6 - FY25E: 216.7 (30.1% YoY growth) - FY26E: 285.1 (31.5% YoY growth) - FY27E: 363.3 (27.4% YoY growth) [3][14] - **Gross Margin (%)**: - FY23A: 55.4 - FY24A: 53.0 - FY25E: 53.8 - FY26E: 53.5 - FY27E: 53.3 [3][14] - **Earnings Per Share (in RMB)**: - FY23A: 2.42 - FY24A: 2.78 - FY25E: 3.61 - FY26E: 4.75 - FY27E: 6.05 [3][14] - **Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E)**: - FY25E: 12.9 - FY26E: 9.8 - FY27E: 7.7 [3][14] Market Performance - The company's market capitalization is approximately HKD 3,042 million, with a 52-week high of HKD 51.75 and a low of HKD 23.05 [5][12]. - The stock has shown significant performance, with a 59.4% absolute return over the past three months [7].

2025 年 5 月 28 日 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 公司更新 贝克微 (2149 HK) 配售完成，关注执行落地 贝克微于 5 月 21 日完成了总额为 1.2 亿港元的配售协议（链接），以每股 40 港元 的配售价格认购最多 300 万股的配售股份。本次募资净额将用于：1）加大对上游 制造资源的投入，包括但不限于自建晶圆厂及强化与现有晶圆厂的合作；2）补充 一般营运资金。 我们认为本次增发将有助于公司巩固其上游制造能力，这对于公司未来的扩张至关 重要，尤其考虑到工业级模拟 IC 市场的长尾特性。同时，此轮融资也将增强公司 的现金储备，为其日常运营注入更多流动性支持。截至 5 月 21 日收盘，公司股价 上涨 6.6%，报 47.6 港元。 公司目前仍是我们重点推荐的标的之一。我们预计 2025–27 年收入的同比增速将 达到 27%-33%，毛利率维持在 53%-54%之间。重申"买入"评级，目标价维持 69.5 港元不变。 | 财务资料 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | (截至 12 月 31 日) | FY23A | ...

2025 年 5 月 28 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 行业及公司点评 全球市场观察 行业点评 半导体行业 - 主题投资与宏观趋势：中国云厂商加速 AI 基础设施建设，云需 求持续增强 中国大规模云厂商（阿里巴巴、腾讯、百度）正在加快 AI 基础设施投资步伐， 1Q25 资本支出同比翻倍。尽管三者的总投入仍低于海外超大规模云厂商，但 显著的增长表明它们正明确聚焦于扩展算力以支持大模型的训练和推理。尽 管短期内受到美国 AI GPU 出口限制影响，国内云厂商仍坚定地致力于 AI 的 长期发展。值得注意的是，初步回报已开始显现，三家公司云业务均看见显 敬请参阅尾页之免责声明 请到彭博 (搜索代码: RESP CMBR )或 http://www.cmbi.com.hk 下载更多研究报告 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 23,382 | -0.93 | 37.16 | ...

2025 年 5 月 27 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 行业及公司点评 全球市场观察 行业点评 医药行业 - ASCO 精选亮点：聚焦下一代免疫疗法与 ADC 信达生物：ASCO 数据强化了 IBI363 作为下一代免疫治疗（IO）的潜力。 我们认为 IBI363 在 IO 耐药的鳞状非小细胞肺癌（sq-NSCLC）领域具有较大 潜力，单药治疗展现出 7.3 个月的 mPFS，在针对同适应症的创新药物中具 备较强竞争力。信达计划于 2H25 启动 IBI363 在 IO 耐药 sq-NSCLC 的 III 期 临床。 周一（5 月 26 日）中国股市下跌。港股可选消费、医疗保健与资讯科技领跌， 电信服务、必选消费与能源收跌，南向资金净卖出 15.07亿港元。A股汽车、 医药生物和银行跌幅居前，传媒、计算机和环保等收涨。人民币小幅上涨。 比亚迪大力度降价，引发市场对新一轮价格战担忧。 欧股反弹，对关税敏感的汽车板块大涨，欧元创本月新高。欧盟称将快速推 进欧美贸易谈判，贸易专员称与美方沟通良好，提振市场情绪。欧央行行长 称近期全球动荡为"欧元全球化时刻"创造契机，欧元可能成为美 ...