Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for iQIYI, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [16]. Core Insights - iQIYI is expected to see a recovery in both revenue and earnings in 4Q25, with total revenue projected to grow by 2% year-over-year (YoY) and 1% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) to RMB6.77 billion, driven by the recovery of membership and content distribution businesses [1][8]. - The forecast for non-GAAP net income in 4Q25 is RMB93 million, a significant improvement from the non-GAAP net losses recorded in previous quarters [1]. - The target price for iQIYI has been adjusted to US$2.75, based on an 18x multiple of the 2026E non-GAAP EPS, reflecting a 36.8% upside from the current price of US$2.01 [3][11]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for FY23A was RMB32,018 million, with a YoY growth of 10.4%. However, FY24A revenue is expected to decline by 8.7% to RMB29,225 million, followed by a further decline of 6.7% in FY25E to RMB27,263 million [2]. - The adjusted net profit for FY23A was RMB2,984.1 million, which is expected to drop to RMB1,512.2 million in FY24A and further to RMB264.1 million in FY25E [2]. - Gross margin is projected to decrease from 27.8% in FY23A to 20.9% in FY25E, before recovering to 23.3% in FY26E and 24.2% in FY27E [2]. Business Forecasts and Valuation - iQIYI's revenue for FY25E is forecasted at RMB27.3 billion, with a slight increase in FY26E to RMB27.9 billion and FY27E to RMB28.4 billion [9]. - The non-GAAP net profit is expected to significantly improve from RMB0.3 billion in FY25E to RMB1.0 billion in FY26E and RMB1.3 billion in FY27E, reflecting a recovery trend [9]. - The valuation of iQIYI is based on a target PE multiple of 18x for 2026E non-GAAP EPS, which is at a discount to the sector average of 24x due to intense competition in the video streaming sector [11].

Group 1: Market Overview - Global markets showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 26,585, up 0.37% for the day and 3.72% year-to-date [1] - The US markets also experienced gains, with the Dow Jones up 1.21% and the S&P 500 up 1.16% [1] - In contrast, the German DAX and Japanese Nikkei 225 saw declines of 0.58% and 0.41% respectively [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Financial sector fell by 0.44%, while the Hang Seng Utilities sector rose by 1.15% [2] - The real estate sector underperformed, with a decline of 0.77% year-to-date [2] - The industrial sector showed resilience, gaining 0.86% for the day [2] Group 3: Company Insights - iQIYI is projected to see a revenue recovery in Q4 2025, with expected total revenue of RMB 6.77 billion, reflecting a 2% year-on-year growth [4] - The company is anticipated to achieve a non-GAAP net profit of RMB 93 million, a turnaround from previous losses [4] - iQIYI's innovative business segments, including overseas operations and IP derivatives, are showing positive progress [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The new SHUION 29 rose 0.6pt from RO at 98.423 yesterday, while the existing SHUION 26 retraced 0.2pt [2] - KUAISH 31 - 36s and TW lifers tightened 1 - 3bps this morning, and FUTLAN 28/VLLPM 29 rose 0.6 - 0.9pt [3] - In 2025, the cumulative contracted sales of 31 Chinese developers dropped 21.5% yoy to RMB1,757.6bn [3][8] - A new round of demand - driven stimulus on the property market may come in 1Q26, but the recovery will likely remain slow due to weak homebuyers' confidence [9] - CMBI economic research expects a 10bp cut in LPR in 1Q26, followed by an additional 10bp LPR cut in 3Q26, which should support the weak housing market [9] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Trading Desk Comments - Yesterday, new issues like KUAISH 31 - 36s tightened 2bps earlier in the day but closed unchanged, and TW lifers closed 2 - 5bps wider [2] - In Greater China, beta IG name ZHOSHK 28 closed 1bp wider, and CHIOIL 26 was 0.1pt lower [2] - In HK, FAEACO 12.814 Perp rose 1.1pts, while LIFUNG 5.25 Perp dropped 2.8pts [2] - In Chinese properties, LNGFOR 27 - 32 were 0.4pt lower to 0.3pt higher, and FUTLAN 28/FTLNHD 26 - 27 were unchanged to 0.3pt lower [2] - In KR, financial and corporate names faced selling pressure, with spreads widening 1 - 3bps [2] - In JP, 10yr bonds NTT 35/MUFG 35 - 36s/SOBKCO 35/SMBCAC 35/TACHEM 35 were 5 - 6bps wider [2] - In SE Asia, BBLTB/OCBCSP T2s widened 1 - 6bps, and TOPTB 6.1 Perp/IHFLIN 27 - 30s was 0.1pt lower [2] - In the Middle East, KSA/QATAR long - end bonds were down 0.3 - 0.5pt [2] - In the overall IG FRN space, lower - beta names were 1 - 2bps wider [2] Macro News Recap - On Tuesday, S&P (-2.06%), Dow (-1.76%), and Nasdaq (-2.39%) were lower, triggered by Trump's Greenland tariff threat and Japan's political situation [6] - UST yield was higher on Tuesday, with 2/5/10/30 year yield at 3.60%/3.86%/4.30%/4.91% [6] Desk Analyst Comments - In Dec'25, 31 developers reported contracted sales of RMB186.2bn, a 15.3% yoy decrease from RMB219.9bn in Dec'24 [7] - Only 2 out of 31 developers reported yoy increase in contracted sales in 2025: CHJMAO and GRNLGR with 16% and 7% increases respectively [8] - The bottom performers in 2025 were GEMDAL, JINGRU, and CIFIHG, with their contracted sales dropping 56%, 55%, and 52% yoy respectively [8] Offshore Asia New Issues (Priced) - The Republic of the Philippines issued 500mn/1500mn USD bonds with 5.5yr/10yr tenors, 4.25%/5.0% coupons, and issue ratings of Baa2/BBB+/BBB [11] - Toyota Finance Australia issued bonds with various tenors and coupons, including a 3.25yr bond at SOFR + 60 and a 25yr bond at 5.75% [11] - Woori Bank issued 300mn/300mn USD bonds with 3yr/5yr tenors, SOFR + 48/4.125% coupons, and an issue rating of A1/A+/- [11] Offshore Asia New Issues (Pipeline) - Korea Development Bank plans to issue bonds with 3yr/5yr/5yr/10yr tenors and coupons like SOFR + 41/SOFR + 52/SOFR Equiv/SOFR + 70, with an issue rating of Aa2/AA/AA - [12] News and Market Color - Yesterday, 93 credit bonds were issued onshore with an amount of RMB84bn, and month - to - date, 1,134 credit bonds were issued with a total amount of RMB934bn, a 24.5% yoy decrease [13] - China Oil & Gas postponed its USD Reg S 3NC2 bond offering due to market volatility [3][13] - Seazen Group agreed to sell Seazen Resources Securities for HK 62.8mn [13]

招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 行业点评 2026 年 1 月 21 日 全球市场观察 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 26,488 | -0.29 | 3.34 | | 恒生国企 | 9,095 | -0.43 | 2.03 | | 恒生科技 | 5,683 | -1.16 | 3.04 | | 上证综指 | 4,114 | -0.01 | 3.65 | | 深证综指 | 2,678 | -0.83 | 5.80 | | 深圳创业板 | 3,278 | -1.79 | 2.34 | | 美国道琼斯 | 48,489 | -1.76 | 0.88 | | 美国标普 500 | 6,797 | -2.06 | -0.71 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 22,954 | -2.39 | -1.24 | | 德国 DAX | 24,703 | -1.03 | 0.87 | | 法 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - Global markets showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 26,564, down 1.05% for the day but up 3.64% year-to-date [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index managed a slight increase of 0.29% to close at 4,114, while the Shenzhen Composite Index rose by 0.50% to 2,700 [1] - The U.S. markets remained flat, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 both closing at 49,359 and 6,940 respectively, showing no change for the day [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - In the Hong Kong market, healthcare, consumer discretionary, and information technology sectors led the decline, while energy, utilities, and materials sectors saw gains [3] - The Hang Seng Financial Index fell by 0.76% to 50,425, and the Hang Seng Industrial Index decreased by 1.27% to 14,397 [2] - The real estate sector also experienced a decline, with the Hang Seng Property Index down 0.72% to 19,024 [2] Group 3: Economic Outlook - China's economic growth is expected to slow, with a projected GDP growth rate of 4.8% for the year, down from 5% last year [5] - The report anticipates a reduction in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by 10 basis points in the first quarter and again in the third quarter, alongside a potential 50 basis point cut in the Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) [5] - The real estate sector is expected to be a focal point for policy easing, with potential measures including interest subsidies and increased support for local government storage [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - The Asian IG space tightened by 2 - 3bps this morning, while some bonds like KUAISH 31 - 36s and SKBTAM 29 were 1 - 2bps wider [3] - The IPT of new SHUION 29 at 10.625% is considered fair, and the proposed new issue and tender offer by Shui On Land should lengthen its maturity profile and reduce near - term refinancing pressure [7][9] - In the Chinese properties space, CHJMAO, DALWAN, FUTLAN/FTLNHD, GRNCH, and LNGFOR are favored [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading Desk Comments - Last Friday, the new SNBAB 6.15 Perp was down 0.4pt from RO at par; KUAISH 31 - 36s opened heavy and initially widened 3 - 5bps, with the 5yr tranche closing at RO level and the 10yr tranche 4bps wider [2] - MEITUA curve traded softly, widening 1 - 2bps, while FRESHK curve outperformed and tightened 5 - 8bps; TW lifers were 1 - 2bps wider [2] - SHUION launched a tender offer for USD400mn SHUION 26 and circulated 10.625% IPT for a new USD bond; NWDEVL/VDNWDL complex was up 0.2 - 1.0pt; FAEACO 12.814 Perp/LASUDE 26 gained 0.5 - 0.6pt [2] - EHICAR 26 - 27 increased by 0.4 - 0.5pt; DALWAN 28 was 0.2pt lower; VNKRLE 27 - 29 rose 2.4 - 2.5pts; LNGFOR 27 - 32 increased by 0.4 - 0.8pt [2] - In the Korean space, KDB 27 - 31s and EIBKOR 29 FRNs tightened 1 - 2bps; AU and JP IG credits closed 1 - 4bps tighter; in the Middle East, there was block - size trading on FABUH 34s and PBs were buying FABUH FRNs; in SE Asia, BBLTB sub - curve was 2 - 5bps tighter; GLPSP Perps rose 1.8pts [2] - IHFLIN 27 - 30s/VEDLN 28 - 33s edged 0.2 - 0.8pt higher; MEDCIJ 26 - 30s and the ReNew Energy complex were unchanged to 0.4pt higher [2] Morning Market Update (19 Jan 2026) - Asian IG space was 2 - 3bps tighter this morning, KUAISH 31 - 36s and SKBTAM 29 were 1 - 2bps wider; SOFTBK 65/EHICAR 26 were down 0.6 - 0.7pt; PMBROV 30 edged 0.6pt higher [3] - SHUION 26 was 2.2pts higher this morning; the IPT of new SHUION 29 at 10.625% is fair [3][7] - China Oil and Gas launched a tender offer for CHIOIL 4.7 06/30/26 of USD361mn at par and mandated concurrent USD bond issuance, with the offer expiring on 26 Jan '26 4pm GMT, and the bond was unchanged this morning [3] Top Performers and Underperformers - Top performers include VNKRLE 3.975 11/09/27 (up 2.5), VNKRLE 3 1/2 11/12/29 (up 2.4), ADSEZ 5 08/02/41 (up 2.0), GLPSP 4 1/2 PERP (up 1.8), COGARD 5 12/31/32 (up 1.8) [4] - Top underperformers include TENCNT 3.29 06/03/60 (down 0.8), CNPCCH 5.95 04/28/41 (down 0.7), HAOHUA 3.7 09/22/50 (down 0.7), APAAU 5 3/4 09/16/44 (down 0.7), SINOPE 3.68 08/08/49 (down 0.7) [4] Macro News Recap - Last Friday, S&P was down 0.06%, Dow was down 0.17%, and Nasdaq was down 0.06%. UST yield was higher, with 2/5/10/30 - year yields at 3.59%/3.82%/4.24%/4.83% [6] Desk Analyst Comments on SHUION - Shui On Land proposes to issue a 3NC1.5 Reg S USD senior unsecured bond (unrated) guaranteed by SOL, and the IPT of new SHUION 29 at 10.625% is fair considering peer valuation and tenor differential [7] - The net proceeds of the new bond will fund the tender offer for SHUION 5.5 06/29/26 of USD400mn, with a tender price of 100.25. SOL may prioritize holders subscribing to the new bond, and tender settlement is conditional on new bond issuance [8] - Despite sector headwinds, SOL honors offshore obligations, having redeemed two USD bonds totaling USD990mn since Aug '24. The new issue and tender offer should lengthen maturity and reduce refinancing pressure. The analyst is neutral on SHUION 5.5 06/29/26 [9] Offshore Asia New Issues - No offshore Asia new issues were priced today [13] - Shui On Land has a pipeline to issue a USD bond with a 3NC1.5 tenor, 10.625% coupon, and unrated [14] News and Market Color - On last Friday, 89 credit bonds were issued onshore with an amount of RMB63bn. Month - to - date, 948 credit bonds were issued with a total of RMB755bn raised, a 29.3% yoy decrease [17] - Fitch upgraded DWCM and Wanda Commercial Properties (Hong Kong) to CC from RD [17] - Media reported eHi Car plans a LME in 1H26 for EHICAR 7 09/21/26 of USD269mn and seeks RMB300 - 500mn syndicated loans [17] - ReNew Energy Global to hold investor meetings/calls to market USD 144A/Reg S bonds [17] - Sands Macao launched 'Pearl Gaming Room' targeting mass - market bet sizes [17] - Media reported Vanke reassured bondholders it can make 40% upfront payment for domestic bonds [17]

Industry Insights - The Chinese construction machinery industry is experiencing strong sales growth for truck cranes and crawler cranes, with December sales showing a year-on-year increase of 39% and 96% respectively, driven by demand from wind power installation and other energy projects [2] - The export performance of various construction machinery types, excluding tower cranes, was also strong in December, indicating a sustained upward cycle in non-earthmoving machinery demand expected to last until 2026 [2] - Recommended stocks include Zoomlion (1157 HK / 000157 CH, Buy), followed by Hengli Hydraulic (601100 CH, Buy) and Sany Heavy Industry (6031 HK / 600031 CH, Buy) [2] - Caution is advised regarding Zhejiang Dingli (603338 CH, Hold) due to weak sales in the aerial work platform sector, which saw an 8% year-on-year decline in December, despite some improvement [2] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,845, down 0.29% for the day but up 4.74% year-to-date [3] - The Hang Seng Tech Index closed at 5,822, down 0.11% for the day and up 5.55% year-to-date [3] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,102, down 0.26% for the day and up 3.35% year-to-date [3] Semiconductor Industry - TSMC reported strong FY25 results with revenue of $122 billion, a year-on-year increase of 35.9%, and a gross profit margin of 59.9% [5] - In Q4 2025, TSMC's revenue reached $33.7 billion, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.9%, with a gross profit margin rising to 62.3% due to cost improvements and favorable exchange rates [5] - TSMC's guidance for Q1 2026 revenue is between $34.6 billion and $35.8 billion, with a gross profit margin of 63% to 65%, and the 2026 revenue growth forecast has been raised to approximately 30%, significantly above the industry growth estimate of 14% [5] - The company plans to increase its capital expenditure for 2026 to between $52 billion and $56 billion, indicating proactive capacity expansion to meet AI-driven demand [5]

Macro Commentary - The Chinese economy shows signs of moderate monetary policy easing, with a continued slowdown in the growth of social financing stock expected by the end of 2025, and a significant decline in M1 growth, indicating weakened economic activity and private sector confidence [2][6] - The credit structure reveals an imbalance in economic supply and demand, with the corporate sector remaining the main driver of credit expansion, while the household sector continues to deleverage [2] Global Market Performance - Major global stock indices showed varied performance, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 26,924, down 0.28% for the day but up 5.05% year-to-date [3] - The US stock market experienced a rebound, with utilities, industrials, and real estate leading gains, while energy, healthcare, and communication services sectors declined [5] Sector Performance in Hong Kong - In Hong Kong, the consumer discretionary, healthcare, and information technology sectors led declines, while real estate, energy, and industrial sectors saw gains [5] - The Hang Seng Financial Index rose by 0.68% to 50,996, while the Hang Seng Real Estate Index increased by 1.32% to 19,105 [4] Company Analysis - Jitu (1519 HK) is rated as a "Buy" with a target price of HKD 13.4, following a share swap agreement with SF Express, which is expected to enhance product offerings and market reach [6] - WuXi AppTec (2268 HK) is also rated as a "Buy" with a target price of HKD 88.00, anticipating a revenue increase of at least 45% and net profit growth of at least 38% for 2025 [7][10] - WuXi AppTec's strong performance is attributed to a record number of new contracts in drug development and production, with significant growth in XDC projects and a strategic acquisition of Dongyao Pharmaceutical to enhance production capacity [8][9][10]

Macro Analysis - China's economy is facing challenges in rebalancing, with a projected 5.5% growth in goods exports for 2025, driven by strengthened trade relations with non-US regions and the restructuring of global supply chains [2] - The trade surplus has reached a record $1.19 trillion, accounting for 6.1% of GDP, while imports have stagnated due to weak domestic demand and overcapacity [2] - GDP growth has slowed significantly since Q3 2025, with expectations of further decline in Q1 2026, prompting potential new stimulus measures from policymakers [2] Industry Analysis - The global large model market is expected to reach $206.5 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 80.7% from 2024 to 2029, driven by the commercialization of AI applications [6] - The AI application market is projected to grow to $151.5 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 84.4% [6] - Key players in the C-end AI application space include ByteDance, Tencent, and Alibaba, with specific focus areas such as AI general assistants and visual generation [6] Company Analysis - Q Technology (1478 HK) has reported a significant earnings increase of 400-450% for FY25, exceeding market expectations, primarily driven by growth in non-mobile businesses and camera module upgrades [7] - The non-mobile business is expected to be the main growth driver, with projected revenue growth of 42% and 30% for FY26E and FY27E, respectively [7] - The new target price for Q Technology is set at HKD 13.18, based on a 17x P/E ratio for FY26E, reflecting the challenges in the smartphone industry [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Asian fixed - rate IG credits tightened by 1 - 4bps this morning. Some bonds like VLLPM 29 were down, while PMBROV 30 recovered [3] - The FV of the new SUNHKC 29 is expected to be mid - 6% compared to an IPT of 6.75% [3][7] - Yuexiu REIT is gauging investor interest in USD/CNH bonds to refinance USD400mn YXREIT 2.65 02/02/26 [3][17] Summary by Directory Trading Desk Comments - Yesterday, new POHANG 31 - 36s/SKBTAM 29 tightened 3 - 5bps due to buying from Chinese onshore accounts, and new CSILTD Float 31 widened 1bp. Chinese IG credits tightened 1 - 3bps overall, with strong buying in beta names. Some bonds like EHICAR 26 - 27 were down, while NWDEVL/VDNWDL complex rose [2] - In Chinese properties, VNKRLE 27 - 29 were down, and Vanke proposed revised terms for its onshore bond. FUTLAN 28/FTLNHD 26 - 27 had mixed performance [2] - In JP space, SUMIBK/MUFG 5yr FRNs tightened. In SE Asia, BBLTB subs tightened, and GARUDA 31s surged. In the Middle East, FABUH 31s had block - size trading but closed unchanged. In AU space, CRNAU 29/PMBROV 30 were down [2] Macro News Recap - On Wednesday, S&P (-0.19%), Dow (-0.80%), and Nasdaq (-0.10%) were lower. US approved Nvidia H200 chip exports to China with conditions. UST yield was lower, with 2/5/10/30 - year yield at 3.53%/3.75%/4.18%/4.83% [6] Desk Analyst Comments - Sun Hung Kai proposes to issue a 3yr USD senior unsecured bond. The FV of the new SUNHKC 29 is seen as mid - 6% vs IPT at 6.75%, considering peer valuation and tenor differential [7] - Proceeds from the new issue will fund a tender offer for SUNHKC 5 09/07/26 and for general working capital. The tender price is at par, and SHK may prioritize allocation to tendering bondholders. Tender offer settlement depends on new bond issue settlement [8] - SHK is 74.6% - owned by Allied Group and ultimately by Lee and Lee Trust. It has businesses in credit, investment management, and fund management. In 1H25, it had a 43.5% yoy income increase, with credit and fund management contributing 62% of total income [9] - In 1H25, pre - tax profit increased, ROE rose, and leverage metrics improved. As of Jun'25, it had cash of HKD2.8bn and total debts of HKD11.0bn, with 52% due within one year [10] Offshore Asia New Issues - No offshore Asia new issues were priced today [14] - ANZ New Zealand (Int'l) London Branch and Sun Hung Kai are in the pipeline for new issues, with ANZ having 3yr/5yr options and Sun Hung Kai a 3yr bond at 6.75% [15] News and Market Color - Yesterday, 112 onshore credit bonds were issued with an amount of RMB107bn. Month - to - date, 645 credit bonds were issued, raising RMB517bn, a 20.3% yoy decrease [16] - Biocon's INR41.5bn QIP attracted 4x demand. CAS accepted USD580.629mn of CASHLD 4 Perp in a tender offer. Piramal Finance raised USD350mn. SJM accepted USD170.115mn of SJMHOL 4.5 01/27/2026 in a tender offer [16] - Vanke proposed revised terms for an onshore bond extension, and Yuexiu REIT is gauging investor interest in bonds for refinancing [16][17] Top Performers and Underperformers - Top performers include NWDEVL and GARUDA bonds with significant price increases, while top underperformers like CRNAU, ARAMCO, and PMBROV bonds had price drops [4]