Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Ke Holdings (Beike), indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [1][16]. Core Insights - Ke Holdings is expected to experience a revenue decline of 28.5% YoY in 4Q25, with anticipated revenue of RMB22.2 billion and a non-GAAP net profit of RMB427 million, resulting in a net profit margin of 1.9% [1]. - The company is well-positioned to expand its market share in the home transaction business due to its strong technological capabilities, superior service quality, and established agent cooperation network [1]. - For FY26E, the report forecasts a recovery in earnings driven by cost optimization measures and profitability improvements in new businesses, projecting a non-GAAP net profit of RMB7.0 billion, which represents a 42% YoY growth [1]. - The target price has been raised by 5% to US$21.80, reflecting a positive long-term operating cash flow outlook [1][3]. Financial Summary - For FY23A, revenue is reported at RMB77.8 billion, with a YoY growth of 28.2%. The adjusted net profit is RMB9.8 billion, showing a significant growth of 244.7% [2]. - The revenue forecast for FY25E is RMB94.6 billion, with a slight YoY growth of 1.3%, while the adjusted net profit is expected to decline to RMB4.9 billion, a decrease of 31.5% [2]. - The report projects a revenue of RMB91.5 billion for FY26E, with an adjusted net profit of RMB7.0 billion, indicating a recovery and growth trajectory [2]. Valuation Metrics - The report indicates a P/E ratio of 52.2x for FY25E, which is expected to decrease to 29.4x in FY26E and further to 22.5x in FY27E, suggesting an improving valuation as earnings recover [2][14]. - The SOTP-based valuation for Beike Core is estimated at US$20.9 per ADS, with an additional US$0.9 per ADS for Shengdu, leading to a total valuation of US$21.80 per ADS [1][12].

Global Macro Strategy - The report highlights a global economic rebalancing driven by various factors including increased fiscal expansion in the US, Japan, and Europe, and China's focus on stabilizing real estate and promoting consumption [1][2] - The US economy is expected to see GDP growth decrease from 2.2% last year to 2% this year, with PCE inflation projected to drop from 2.5% to 2.3% [1][4] - The report anticipates that risk assets may reach new highs, with cyclical and value stocks outperforming tech and growth stocks [1][2] United States - The US housing market is expected to see an increase in sales volume while prices remain stable, with existing home sales projected to grow by 10% and new home sales by 5% in 2026 [7] - The fiscal deficit is projected to rise from 5.4% last year to 6.2% this year, with significant tax cuts expected to stimulate the economy [11] - The report predicts that the Federal Reserve will only cut rates once in June, with the 10-year Treasury yield expected to rise from 4.18% to 4.3% by year-end [12][14] United Kingdom - The UK economy is expected to experience a slight slowdown, with GDP growth forecasted to decrease from 1.4% last year to 1.2% this year [19][20] - The unemployment rate is projected to rise from 4.4% to 5.1% as the job market cools, while wage growth is expected to normalize [20] - The report anticipates that the Bank of England will cut rates twice in 2026, bringing the policy rate down to 3.25% [24] Eurozone - The Eurozone's GDP growth is expected to slow from 1.4% last year to 1.2% this year, with inflation projected to stabilize around the target level [1][2] - The report indicates that the European Central Bank's rate-cutting cycle has ended, with policy rates expected to remain unchanged [1][2] Japan - Japan's GDP growth is forecasted to decline significantly from 1.3% last year to 0.7% this year, with inflation also expected to decrease [1][2] - The report suggests that the Bank of Japan may raise rates twice, with the 10-year government bond yield expected to rise from 2.07% to 2.45% [1][2] China - China's GDP growth is projected to slow from 5% last year to 4.6% this year, with a focus on stabilizing the real estate market and promoting consumption [1][2] - The report anticipates that the People's Bank of China will implement two rate cuts totaling 20 basis points and one reserve requirement ratio cut of 50 basis points [2]

Macro Commentary - The report indicates a slowdown in China's economic growth in Q1, but improvements in deflation are noted, with policymakers signaling a focus on stabilizing real estate, promoting consumption, and countering "involution" [2] - The US economy is expected to rebound, with rental inflation declining, offsetting a rise in commodity inflation, leading to a stable dollar liquidity environment [2] - The report anticipates only one interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June this year, with a potential for a spring rebound in the stock market [2] Internet Sector - In January, high beta stocks benefitting from event-driven catalysts significantly outperformed the industry, aided by improved market risk appetite and liquidity [2] - Major Chinese internet companies are increasing market spending on AI applications targeting end-users, with 2026 identified as a critical year for capturing user engagement in the AI era [2] Stock Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,560, down 1.21% for the day but up 3.63% year-to-date, while the US markets showed a rebound with the Dow Jones up 2.47% [2] - The report highlights the performance of various indices, with the Hang Seng Financial Index down 1.89% and the Hang Seng Property Index up 17.49% year-to-date [3] Investment Strategy - A "barbell" investment strategy is recommended, focusing on companies with certain profit growth and those benefiting from AI [5] - Specific stocks to watch include Tencent, Alibaba, and Kuaishou for their AI-driven growth potential, and NetEase and Trip.com for their stable earnings visibility [5] Software and IT Services - The report expresses optimism for the software sector, expecting revenue growth to support valuations, while cautioning about the competitive pressures from AI model vendors [6] - Recommended stocks include Palo Alto Networks in the US and Kingdee in China, which are expected to benefit from AI-related revenue growth [6] Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor sector is viewed positively, driven by AI demand, with structural shortages in memory products like HBM and server DRAM [7] - Recommended stocks include Zhongji Xuchuang and Northern Huachuang, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing demand for computing power [7] Technology Sector - The report anticipates a continued high demand for AI computing infrastructure and innovations in consumer electronics, with specific recommendations for companies like Luxshare Precision and BYD Electronics [8] Consumer Sector - The Hang Seng Consumer Index has risen 8% year-to-date, driven by high elasticity in discretionary consumption sectors [9] - The report highlights the potential for increased consumer spending during the Spring Festival, supported by government policies aimed at boosting consumption [10] Automotive Sector - January saw a slowdown in automotive sales, particularly in the new energy vehicle segment, but a recovery is expected post-Spring Festival [11] - Recommended stocks include Geely for its expanding new energy vehicle matrix and Xpeng for its potential to turn profitable [11] Pharmaceutical Sector - The report emphasizes the long-term trend of innovative drugs going global, with a focus on clinical progress and data validation for drugs already in international markets [12] - Recommended stocks include Innovent Biologics and CanSino Biologics, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing trend of drug commercialization [12] Capital Goods Sector - The report notes a positive outlook for the capital goods sector, particularly in construction machinery, driven by rising metal prices and increased mining capital expenditures [21] - Recommended stocks include SANY Heavy Industry and Zoomlion, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing demand for construction equipment [21] Real Estate and Property Management - The real estate sector is optimistic due to favorable policies, with the Hang Seng Property Index rising 15% year-to-date [19] - Recommended stocks include China Jinmao and Greentown China, which have shown significant price increases [19]

2026年2月9日 CMB国际全球市场 | 股权研究 | 公司更新 亚马逊（AMZN US） 成长故事不变，AWS收入增长加速，超出预期。 亚马逊宣布（2月6日北京时间）2025年第四季度业绩：收入为2134亿美元，同比增长1 4%，按固定汇率计算同比增长12%（2024年第四季度：按固定汇率计算增长11%）， 比我们的预测/摩根大通一致预期高出1%。在此期间，总运营利润为250亿美元，同比 增长18%，比我们的预测/摩根大通一致预期高出2%-1%。剔除总额为24亿美元的三项 一次性特殊费用，运营利润将比预期高出10%。2025年第四季度AWS收入同比增长加 速至23.6%（2025年第三季度：20.2%；2024年第四季度：18.9%），比预期高出2个 百分点，受供应限制放宽（但仍存在）的推动。对于2025年，总收入同比增长12%至7 169亿美元，运营利润同比增长17%至800亿美元。管理层预计2026年第一季度预期收 入为1735-1785亿美元（预期：1755亿美元），意味着同比增长11%-15%。同时，管 理层预计运营利润为165-215亿美元（预期：222亿美元），2026年预期资本支出为20 0 ...

Industry Insights - The Chinese medical examination industry is experiencing rapid growth, driven by an aging population and increasing health awareness, with a projected CAGR of 9.2% from 2020 to 2024 and an accelerated growth of 18.3% from 2024 to 2030 [6] - The penetration rate of medical examinations in China is approximately 40%, significantly lower than the 70% in developed countries, indicating substantial room for growth [6] - The market is characterized by a "public-led, private-catching-up" dynamic, with public hospitals holding a 69% market share and private institutions increasing their share to 24% [6] - Leading private examination institutions, such as Meinian Health and Aikang Guobin, are focusing on high-end services, which has resulted in an increase in average selling price (ASP) and profit margins [6] Company Insights - Google (GOOG US) reported a 4Q25 revenue growth of 18% to $113.8 billion, driven by strong performance in search and cloud services, with operating profit increasing by 16% to $35.9 billion [7] - The management has guided for capital expenditures of $175-185 billion for FY26E, significantly above consensus estimates, indicating a strong commitment to AI investments [7] - Zhongji Xuchuang (300308 CH) remains a solid investment, with a focus on pluggable optical modules expected to dominate the market during 2026-27, despite recent stock volatility [8] - Jizhi Jia (2590 HK) announced a 31.7% year-on-year increase in new orders for 2025, totaling 4.1 billion RMB, attributed to stable growth in mature markets and breakthroughs in specific sectors [9]

5 Feb 2026 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Alphabet (GOOG US) Alphabet (GOOG US) - 4Q25 business performance 4Q25 results: AI continues to drive strong search and cloud business performance Alphabet reported 4Q25 results: total revenue grew by 18% YoY to US$113.8bn, 2% ahead of Bloomberg consensus estimate thanks to the strong growth of Google Search and Cloud revenue; operating income was up by 16% YoY to US$35.9bn, lower than consensus estimate of US$36.9bn, but mainly ...

5 Feb 2026 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Innolight (300308 CH) Innolight (300308 CH) - Pluggables first, new architecture later Innolight's share price has experienced heightened volatility yesterday (down 5% on 4 Feb), driven by a combination of market concerns around NPO/CPO adoption, hyperscaler network roadmap evolution, upstream suppliers' capacity expansion, etc., prompting mgmt. to hold an investor Q&A session to address these issues. We believe the core investme ...

中国医药 中国医药 - 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 行业研究 高端化和 AI 技术驱动中国体检行业长期增长 在中国人口老龄化不断加剧和居民健康意识不断提升的背景下，中国体检行业的市 场规模维持了快速增长趋势。根据中研普华的数据，中国体检行业规模在 2020 至 2024 年的年复合增长率（CAGR）为 9.2%，预计在 2024 至 2030 年将以 18.3%的 CAGR加速增长。中国体检渗透率约为 40%，远低于发达国家的 70%，意味着持续 增长的空间广阔。当前体检市场呈现"公立主导、民营追赶"的鲜明格局。根据前 瞻产业研究院的数据，公立医院占据 69%的市场份额，而民营机构的市占率提升至 24%。头部民营体检机构包括美年健康（002044 CH，未评级）、爱康国宾（未上 市）以及瑞慈医疗（1526 HK，未评级）。中国体检行业呈现出显著的高端化趋 势，头部民营体检机构均大力发展高端业务，助力提升ASP和利润率。此外，AI 技 术正成为中国体检行业突破传统瓶颈、实现高质量发展的核心引擎，而具备数据与 场景优势的龙头有望持续拉开与中小连锁的竞争身位。 2026 年 2 月 5 日 中国 医药 行业 ...

2026 年 2 月 5 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 公司点评 全球市场观察 公司点评 辉瑞（PFE US，买入，目标价：35.46 美元） - 减重管线数据推动估值重估 潜力 中国股指收涨，港股能源、地产与原材料领涨，信息科技、可选消费与医疗 跑输。南下资金净买入133.73亿港元，腾讯、阿里巴巴与小米净买入居前， 中芯国际、华虹半导体与钧达股份净卖出最多。A 股煤炭、建材与地产领涨， 传媒、通信与计算机跑输。马斯克团队考察光伏产业链，上市公司密集回应。 中国光伏行业协会表示太空光伏技术仍处于探索和验证的初期阶段。 美股指数下跌，信息技术、通讯服务与可选消费领跌，能源、材料与地产领 涨。美股市场软件股抛售潮继续蔓延至半导体、AI 概念股等领域，宏观数据 喜忧参半未能给市场提供支撑。资金从科技股、成长股与高估值板块向能源、 材料股、价值股与低估值板块切换。AMD 疲弱指引后暴跌 17%，拖累半导 体板块下挫，Palantir、Snowflake、Datadog 等软件与 AI 相关个股继续承压。 谷歌All in AI，第4季度云收入猛增48%，今年支出指引接近翻倍大超预期 ...

2026年2月5日 CMB国际 | 全球市场 | 股权研究 | 公司更新 辉瑞公司（PFE美国） 肥胖领域风险降低推动重估潜力 辉瑞公布了强劲的2025年第四季度业绩，收入为176亿美元（基本符合我们180亿美元 的预估），调整后净收入为38亿美元（超出我们33亿美元的预估）。尽管2025财年收入 达到626亿美元（同比下降2%），但排除COVID-19产品（Comirnaty和Paxlovid）的经 营收入同比增长6%，凸显了公司业务的强劲基础。2025财年调整后摊薄每股收益同比 增长4%至3.22美元，反映了成本削减举措的成功实施。管理层重申了2026年收入预期 为595亿美元至625亿美元，调整后每股收益为2.80美元至3.00美元。我们预计2026财年 预期将充满催化剂，包括长效GLP-1和长效胰淀素项目的关键数据公布，肥胖产品组合 和PF'4404（PD-1/VEGF）的积极临床进展，以及2L+非小细胞肺癌中SV的III期数据和 Elrexfio在复发/难治性多发性骨髓瘤中的数据。我们认为这些里程碑有望推动显著的价 值重估。 VESPER-3读数验证了每月剂量区分。 辉瑞公布了其长效GLP-1（PF ...