Global Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 21,466, up 2.64% for the day and 25.92% year-to-date [1] - The S&P 500 closed at 5,397, up 0.62% for the day and 13.14% year-to-date [1] - European markets showed gains, with the DAX up 4.32% and the CAC up 3.25% [1] Sector Performance - The Hang Seng Financial Index rose by 3.46%, while the Hang Seng Real Estate Index fell by 1.30% [2] - Defensive sectors such as telecommunications and utilities led gains in Hong Kong, while sectors like healthcare and real estate faced declines [3] Economic Outlook - Trade conflicts are expected to significantly impact global trade, manufacturing activity, and consumer confidence in Q2 [3] - The Chinese government plans to boost domestic consumption and stabilize the real estate market as a response to trade tensions [3] - Monetary policy easing is anticipated in Q2, followed by fiscal stimulus after negotiations with the U.S. commence [3] Company Recommendations - Geely Automobile (175 HK) is rated "Buy" with a target price of 23.00, indicating a potential upside of 41% [4] - Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US) is rated "Buy" with a target price of 38.51, representing a 26% upside [4] - Tencent (700 HK) is rated "Buy" with a target price of 625.00, suggesting a 37% upside [4] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights several companies with strong potential returns, including: - BYD (285 HK) with a target price of 47.10, indicating a 42% upside [4] - Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH) with a target price of 133.86, suggesting a 69% upside [4] - The semiconductor sector is noted for significant growth potential, with companies like Zhongji Xuchuang (300308 CH) showing a potential upside of 132% [4]

Macro Commentary - China's trade surplus reached a record high of over 100 billion USD in March, driven by a significant rebound in exports due to anticipated tariff increases leading to a rush in exports [2] - Export growth is expected to slow from 5.9% in 2024 to 3.3% in 2025, while import growth may slightly rise from 1.1% to 2.2% [2] - The aggressive tariff policies of the Trump administration could reduce China's economic growth by over 0.5 percentage points through various channels [2] - China is likely to strengthen trade and investment ties with non-US regions and shift towards a more consumption-driven growth model, potentially introducing additional fiscal stimulus measures [2] Company Commentary - China Pacific Insurance (2328 HK) is expected to report a net profit growth of 80%-100% YoY for Q1 2025, driven by reduced disaster losses and improved investment returns [6] - The company anticipates a significant improvement in its combined ratio, benefiting from a decrease in natural disaster-related economic losses [6] - The forecast for FY25-27 EPS has been slightly adjusted, with estimates of 1.62, 1.76, and 1.91 CNY respectively, while maintaining a "Buy" rating with a target price of 15.80 HKD [6] - Yihua Holdings (838 HK) is projected to see a 12% YoY increase in automotive parts revenue for FY25, primarily from contributions by Great Wall Motors and Changan Automobile [7] - The company’s Mexican factory is expected to benefit from increased business from OEMs and new tariff policies, with continuous revenue growth and profitability [8] - Yihua's new business segments, including server chassis and robotic assembly, are anticipated to support long-term growth, with revenue from server chassis expected to exceed 400 million HKD this year [8][9] - Baidu (BIDU US) is expected to achieve a core business revenue of 24 billion CNY in Q1 2025, driven by strong demand in cloud services [7] - The company is actively transforming its business model to integrate generative AI into search results, which is expected to enhance user experience and engagement [7] - The target price for Baidu has been adjusted to 146.70 USD, reflecting a PE ratio of 13.9x for 2025E [7] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 21,417, up 2.40% for the day and 25.63% year-to-date [2] - The performance of various sectors in the Hong Kong stock market showed healthcare, materials, and consumer discretionary leading gains, while telecommunications and real estate lagged [4] - The US stock market saw mixed results, with defensive sectors like real estate and utilities performing well, while consumer discretionary and technology sectors underperformed [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for PICC P&C, with a target price of HK$15.80, implying a 16.5% upside from the current price of HK$13.96 [1][3]. Core Insights - PICC P&C is expected to report a strong net profit surge of 80%-100% YoY for 1Q25, reaching RMB10.6 billion to RMB11.7 billion, which represents 33%-37% of last year's total net profit [1]. - The improvement in the combined ratio (CoR) is attributed to reduced catastrophic claims and optimized asset allocation, with an estimated CoR of less than 95% for 1Q25 [1][7]. - The company is adjusting its auto and non-auto CoR forecasts to 95.9% and 99.0% respectively for FY25E, reflecting stringent expense controls and an improved underwriting structure [1][8]. Financial Performance - For FY25E, net profit is projected at RMB36.05 billion, with an EPS of RMB1.62, and a dividend yield of 5.1% [2][19]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 13.4% for FY25E, with a combined ratio of 97.1% [19][8]. - The total investment assets are forecasted to grow by 12.6% YoY, reaching RMB676.51 billion in FY24 [9]. Investment Strategy - The insurer is expected to increase its equity allocation to high-yield stocks under FVOCI, building on a 40% growth in FY24 [1][7]. - The report anticipates that the insurer's investment income in 1Q25 will benefit from equity gains and a rebound in bond yields, with China's 10-year government bond yield rising by 14.4bps to 1.82% [7][1]. Share Performance - The stock has shown a 1-month performance of 4.5% and a 3-month performance of 15.3% [5]. - The market capitalization of PICC P&C is approximately HK$301.6 billion, with an average turnover of HK$514.7 million over the past three months [3].

15 Apr 2025 Baidu (BIDU US) Expecting steady cloud revenue growth For 1Q25E, we expect Baidu Core business revenue could reach RMB24.0bn, up 1% YoY, and would be 3% better than Bloomberg consensus, mainly driven by likely better-than-expected cloud revenue growth boosted by strong AI- related demand. Aided by solid cloud revenue growth, we are anticipating non- GAAP operating profit of RMB4.5bn for Baidu Core, 1% better than consensus. Baidu is still proactively driving business transformation, embedding mo ...

2025 年 4 月 14 日 招银国际环球市场 | 宏观研究 | 宏观视角 美国经济 通胀超预期放缓显示消费已经转弱 美国通胀与核心通胀连续两个月超预期放缓，因消费需求已在关税冲击落地前 走弱。特朗普的关税计划和联邦政府裁员与减支已通过预期机制作用于经济活 动，消费者信心指数和企业信心指数明显下滑，机票与住宿等非必要支出下 降。这种状态意味着消费需求将对因关税而上涨的消费价格非常敏感，经济近 期面临"滞涨"风险，远期面临"衰退"风险。据我们估计，10%有效关税将 在未来 12 个月降低美国 GDP 增速 0.4 个百分点，推升美国 PCE 通胀 0.3 个百 分点。近期"滞涨"风险将令美联储陷入两难，但金融市场动荡和远期衰退风 险可能推动美联储在 6 月或 7 月降息，9 月或 12 月再降息 1 次。 刘泽晖 (852) 3761 8957 frankliu@cmbi.com.hk 叶丙南, Ph.D (852) 3761 8967 yebingnan@cmbi.com.hk 资料来源：Wind，招银国际环球市场 资料来源：Wind，招银国际环球市场 0 2 4 6 8 10 2019 2020 2021 ...

美国经济 通胀超预期放缓显示消费已经转弱 年 4 月 14 日 招银国际环球市场 | 宏观研究 | 宏观视角 (852) 3761 8957 frankliu@cmbi.com.hk 叶丙南, Ph.D (852) 3761 8967 yebingnan@cmbi.com.hk 资料来源：Wind，招银国际环球市场 资料来源：Wind，招银国际环球市场 0 2 4 6 8 10 CPI 核心CPI CPI预测 核心CPI预测 同比(%) (5) 0 5 10 15 20 非耐用品 耐用品 服务扣除房租 房租 (%) 敬请参阅尾页之免责声明 请到彭博 (搜索代码: RESP CMBR )或 http:// www.cmbi.com.hk 下载更多招银国际环球市场研究报 告 1 MN CPI 增速低于预期，能源价格大幅下跌。3 月 CPI 季调后环比增速从 2 月 的 0.22%降至-0.05%，低于市场预期的 0.11%，为 2020 年 5 月以来首次 环比下降；CPI 同比增速从 2.8%降至 2.4%。食品价格环比增速从 0.2%反 弹至 3 月的 0.4%，主要是家庭食品价格从 0%升至 0.5%。能源 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for BOE Varitronix, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [10][20]. Core Insights - The management believes that the recent US reciprocal tariffs will have a limited impact on financials due to low US sales exposure, which is only 2.6% in FY23 [9][10]. - BOE Varitronix is optimistic about the ramp-up of capacity in Vietnam by 2025 and has already secured orders from US and South Korean customers [9]. - The company plans to focus on overseas market expansion and adjust its product mix to mitigate tariff risks in the long term [9][10]. - A share repurchase plan announced on April 11 demonstrates management's confidence in the business outlook [9]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from HK$10,760 million in FY23A to HK$22,228 million in FY27E, reflecting a CAGR of approximately 14.6% [2][17]. - Net profit is expected to recover from HK$391.3 million in FY24A to HK$738.7 million in FY27E, with a notable growth of 29.4% in FY25E [2][17]. - The company’s P/E ratio is forecasted to decrease from 10.1x in FY24A to 5.4x in FY27E, indicating an attractive valuation [2][10]. Target Price and Upside Potential - The target price for BOE Varitronix is set at HK$9.63, representing an upside potential of 91.8% from the current price of HK$5.02 [3][10]. Share Performance and Market Data - The market capitalization of BOE Varitronix is approximately HK$3,975.8 million, with an average turnover of HK$35.3 million over the last three months [4]. - The stock has experienced a decline of 30.9% over the past month and 17.4% over the past three months [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Anta Sports, with a target price trimmed to HK$ 119.08, based on a 24x FY25E P/E ratio [1][3]. Core Insights - The acquisition of Jack Wolfskin is viewed positively, with the acquisition price considered attractive and significant potential for expansion in the mid-priced outdoor industry and European markets [1][11]. - Despite a slight decline in retail sales growth in March-April 2025, the outlook for Q2 2025 remains cautiously optimistic due to various growth drivers [11][12]. - The company's retail sales growth in Q1 2025 was satisfactory, with improvements in inventory management and a better-than-expected profit margin [10][11]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY25E are set at RMB 78,235 million, with a year-on-year growth of 10.5% [2][12]. - Net profit for FY25E is estimated at RMB 14,961.4 million, reflecting a decrease of 12.7% year-on-year [2][12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for FY25E is projected at RMB 4.66, down from RMB 5.34 in FY24A [2][12]. Market Performance - The current market capitalization of Anta Sports is approximately HK$ 226.67 billion, with a current stock price of HK$ 83.85, indicating a potential upside of 42% to the target price [3][4]. - The stock is trading at a P/E ratio of 17x for FY25E, which is considered attractive compared to its 5-year average of 25x [1][12]. Acquisition Details - Anta Sports announced the acquisition of Jack Wolfskin for USD 290 million (approximately RMB 23.5 billion), with expected sales of EUR 325 million and adjusted EBITDA of EUR 12 million for FY25E [11][18]. - The valuation metrics for the acquisition indicate a P/S ratio of approximately 0.8x, which is lower than both Anta's group average and the global sports industry average [11][18].

2025 年 4 月 11 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 宏观及公司点评 全球市场观察 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 20,682 | 2.06 | 21.32 | | 恒生国企 | 7,668 | 1.76 | 32.94 | | 恒生科技 | 4,814 | 2.66 | 27.88 | | 上证综指 | 3,224 | 1.16 | 8.36 | | 深证综指 | 1,868 | 2.46 | 1.66 | | 深圳创业板 | 1,901 | 2.27 | 0.48 | | 美国道琼斯 | 39,594 | -2.50 | 5.05 | | 美国标普 500 | 5,268 | -3.46 | 10.45 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 16,387 | -4.31 | 9.17 | | 德国 DAX | 20,563 | 4.53 | 22.75 | | 法国 ...

Saiyi HE, CFA (852) 3916 1739 hesaiyi@cmbi.com.hk China Internet 11 Apr 2025 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update JD.com (JD US) Expecting solid revenue and earnings growth For 1Q25E, we anticipate that JD.com (JD) has inked total revenue of RMB291.9bn, up 12.2% YoY, driven by the nationwide implementation of the subsidy program, and this could be 1% better than Bloomberg consensus. We are also looking for 21% YoY growth in non-GAAP net profit for JD, also 1% better than conse ...