2025 年 11 月 21 日 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 行业研究 英伟达（NVDA US，未评级）再次交出了超预期的季度业绩。公司三季度收入大 幅增长至 570 亿美元，同比增长 62%，环比增长 22%，超出彭博一致预期/公司 指引 3%/6%。公司本季度收入环比增加 100 亿美元，显著超出 40-50 亿美元的历 史正常水平。Non-GAAP 毛利率为 73.6%，略低于彭博预期但小幅超出公司指 引。毛利率环比提升 1.0 个百分点，主要得益于数据中心产品组合升级、交货周 期缩短以及成本结构优化。管理层给出了强劲的四季度指引：预计收入将达到 650 亿美元，同比增长 65%，环比增长 14%，高于彭博预期的 620 亿美元。这意 味着公司下季度将实现 80 亿美元的大幅环比增长。四季度 non-GAAP 毛利率指 引为 75.0%，符合公司此前预计毛利率将在年底达到 75%左右的目标。对于 2027 财年，管理层预计毛利率将持续维持在 75%。 值得注意的是，英伟达在多重挑战下仍交出了出色的业绩，例如：1）受出口管 制，中国市场的收入贡献几乎忽略不计；2）市场对 AI 行业是否存在泡沫产生 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights Nvidia's strong quarterly performance with revenue reaching $57 billion, a year-on-year increase of 62% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 22%, surpassing Bloomberg consensus estimates by 3% and guidance by 6% [2] - Nvidia's management provided a robust guidance for Q4, expecting revenue to reach $65 billion, which indicates a year-on-year growth of 65% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 14%, significantly above market expectations [6] - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a shift towards AI applications, with companies like SK Hynix planning to increase DRAM production to meet the growing demand [5] Industry Commentary - The semiconductor industry, particularly Nvidia, is alleviating market concerns regarding an AI bubble through strong execution and guidance [6] - The report notes that Nvidia's gross margin for the quarter was 73.6%, slightly below consensus but higher than guidance, reflecting improvements in product mix and cost structure [2] - The report anticipates that the AI supply chain will continue to outperform the market until 2026, driven by strong demand for AI-related products [6] Company Analysis - NetEase reported a total revenue of RMB 28.4 billion for Q3 2025, an 8% year-on-year increase, although slightly below consensus expectations [6] - Palo Alto Networks achieved a revenue of $2.5 billion for Q1 FY26, a 15.7% year-on-year growth, exceeding consensus estimates [6] - Stone Pharmaceutical's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was RMB 19.9 billion, with a notable contribution from licensing income, indicating a sustainable growth trajectory [7][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shengyi Technology (600183 CH) with a target price of 90 CNY, highlighting its leadership in the PCB and copper-clad laminate market [1]. Core Insights - The global PCB and copper-clad laminate industry is in the early stages of a structural upcycle driven by AI infrastructure investments, with a notable divergence in performance between high-performance products and standard products [1][2]. - The PCB market is expected to rebound strongly in 2025 with a growth rate of 12.8%, while the copper-clad laminate sector has already seen an 18% growth in 2024, indicating stronger pricing power [1][3]. - The demand for high-layer and HDI boards is surging due to AI server deployments, leading to a "super growth cycle" for these high-performance circuit boards [2][8]. Summary by Sections PCB Market Overview - The global PCB market is projected to recover in 2024 with a 5.8% increase in sales to 74 billion USD, following a 15% decline in 2023 due to inventory destocking and weak end-demand [3]. - The recovery is primarily driven by normalizing inventory levels and early investments in AI-related infrastructure [3][4]. - The market is expected to show a strong rebound in 2025, with a projected sales area growth of 10.3% and a sales revenue growth of 12.8% [4]. Copper-Clad Laminate Market Overview - The global copper-clad laminate market is anticipated to grow by 18% in 2024, driven by a 14% increase in sales volume and a 4% rise in average selling prices [13]. - The market's performance is significantly better than that of the PCB market, showcasing superior pricing power and value-added effects from product structure optimization [13][14]. Competitive Landscape - The copper-clad laminate market is characterized by an oligopolistic structure, with the top ten suppliers holding 77% of the market share, ensuring stronger market pricing power [2][29]. - In contrast, the PCB market is more fragmented, with the top forty suppliers accounting for approximately 50% of the market share, necessitating a strategic focus on high-value segments to maintain pricing power [2][29]. Material Cost Dynamics - Copper constitutes 60%-70% of the raw material costs for PCBs, and the structural increase in copper prices, driven by supply shortages and emerging demands from AI and clean energy sectors, is reshaping the cost structure of the PCB and copper-clad laminate supply chains [16][22]. - The London Metal Exchange copper prices have risen approximately 24% this year, impacting suppliers differently based on their product focus and pricing power [16][22].

Market Overview - The global stock markets experienced declines, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 2.10% and the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.64% [1][3] - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of HKD 6.59 billion, with notable net purchases in Xiaomi Group, Alibaba, and Hua Hong Semiconductor, while China Mobile, Tencent, and Pop Mart saw the most significant net sales [3] Economic Insights - China's economic growth is expected to decline before rebounding, with a new round of policy easing likely in Q1 2024. Despite a slowdown in H2 2023, achieving the annual growth target of 5% remains feasible due to strong performance in H1 [3] - Japan's government is anticipated to introduce a supplementary budget, which may lead to rising bond yields as fiscal expansion aims to boost economic and inflation expectations [3] Company Analysis Kuaishou (快手) - Kuaishou reported a 14% year-on-year revenue increase to RMB 35.6 billion in Q3 2025, aligning with market expectations. Adjusted net profit rose by 26% to RMB 4.99 billion, driven by improved operational efficiency [5] - AI revenue surpassed RMB 300 million, reflecting a 20% quarter-on-quarter growth, supporting a positive outlook on Kuaishou's AI initiatives [5] iQIYI (爱奇艺) - iQIYI's Q3 2025 revenue decreased by 8% to RMB 6.68 billion, meeting expectations. The non-GAAP net loss was RMB 148 million, a decline from a net profit of RMB 480 million in Q3 2024 due to increased content investment [5] - The company anticipates revenue growth in Q4 2025, driven by improved content quality and policy support [5] Futu (富途) - Futu's Q3 2025 performance was robust, with total revenue increasing by 86% year-on-year to HKD 6.4 billion. Non-GAAP net profit surged by 137% to HKD 3.3 billion, significantly exceeding market expectations [6] - The company experienced a 79% year-on-year growth in total customer assets, reaching HKD 1.24 trillion, with net inflows contributing significantly to this growth [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The LGFV space remained stable, with higher-yielding issues tightening due to HF demand, and overall two-way flows skewed towards buying from RMs, especially for onshore AAA-guaranteed CNH issues [3] - BTSDF is on track to achieve its FY25 revised revenue target based on the 9M25 run-rate. The conviction level of BTSDF 9.125 07/24/28 is now lower, so the recommendation changes to neutral, and the switch is made to FOSUNI 8.5 05/19/28 for better carry [4] - Bangkok Bank's new BBLTB 30s and BBLTB 35s are expected to have FVs of T+80 - 85bps and T+95 - 100bps, respectively [4][8] - H&H's credit profile is improving, and it is on track to achieve its FY25 revised revenue target. Its near-term refinancing risk is manageable [16][17][21] Summary by Directory Trading Desk Comments - Yesterday, the MEITUA curve and TW lifer NSINTW/FUBON widened by 2 - 5bps. There were two-way flows on CCAMCL Perp and block two-way trading on CDBFLC 35. Chinese and global funds sold HK bank SHCMBK/DAHSIN/BNKEA/NANYAN T2s [2] - The NWDEVL complex rose 1.4 - 2.9pts. BTSDF 9.125 07/24/28 was 0.1pt lower. In Chinese properties, VNKRLE 27 - 29 were down by 0.4 - 1.0pt, and FUTLAN 28/FTLNHD 26 - 27 were 0.1pt lower [2] - Japanese/Korean IG spaces were up to 5bps wider on financial and corporate bonds, but flows were balanced on JP bank FRNs. SOFTBK and RAKUTN bonds were down by 0.9 - 1.3pts. Yankee AT1s and insurance subs dropped by 0.3 - 0.5pt. In SEA, OCBCSP/BBLTB T2s traded 3 - 5bps wider, and ACPM 5 1/8 Perp lowered by 1.3pts. There were two-way flows on BSFR 35 in the Middle Eastern space [2] Macro News Recap - On Tuesday, S&P (-0.83%), Dow (-1.07%), and Nasdaq (-1.21%) were lower. The latest initial jobless claims were +232k, higher than the market expectation of +223k. UST yield was lower, with 2/5/10/30 year yields at 3.58%/3.70%/4.12%/4.74% [7] Desk Analyst Comments - Bangkok Bank plans to issue 5yr and 10yr Reg S/144A senior unsecured USD bonds. The FV of the new BBLTB 30s and BBLTB 35s is expected to be T+80 - 85bps and T+95 - 100bps, respectively, considering its existing curve [8] BBLTB Analysis - Bangkok Bank is the largest bank in Thailand by total assets as of Sep'25, with a presence in 14 international markets. Its loan book is more diversified geographically than local peers, and it has the largest exposure to corporate and lowest to SME and retail [11] - In 9M25, Bangkok Bank showed resilient profitability, stable asset quality, and strong capital adequacy. NIM declined to 2.81% from 3.05% in 9M24, and the cost-to-income ratio fell to 44.7% from 46.3%. ROA/ROE increased to 1.12%/8.99% from 1.03%/8.54% in 9M24 [12] - In 3Q25, Bangkok Bank's asset quality stabilized, with credit costs down to c1.5% from c1.6% in 2Q25. The gross NPL ratio rose to 3.3% as of Sep'25 from 3.2% as of Jun'25, mainly due to a shrink in the loan book. NPL coverage ratio was 294% as of Sep'25 [13] - Bangkok Bank's capital buffers remain ample, with a standalone CET1 ratio of 19.6% as of Sep'25, well above the 8.0% regulatory minimum. The net reduction in CAR from redeeming USD750mn AT1 was mitigated by issuing USD1bn T2 bonds in Mar'25 [15] BTSDF Analysis - Based on the 9M25 run-rate, BTSDF is on track to achieve its FY25 revised revenue target. The conviction level of BTSDF 9.125 07/24/28 is now lower after moving up c5pts since the buy recommendation in Jan'25, so the switch is made to FOSUNI 8.5 05/19/28 [4][16] H&H Analysis - H&H's 9M25 revenue increased by 12.0% yoy to RMB10.8bn, with all business segments growing. Mainland China remained the largest market, contributing 71.0% of revenue in 9M25, up from 65.9% in 9M24 [17] - The ANC segment grew 5.2% yoy in 9M25, driven by Swisse's performance in mainland China, especially in cross-border e-commerce and Douyin channels [18] - The BNC segment grew 24.0% yoy in 9M25, mainly due to a 35.2% yoy increase in mainland China IMF sales, reaching a market share of 16.4% as of Sep'25. The decline in pediatric probiotic and nutritional supplements narrowed [19] - The PNC segment grew 8.2% yoy in 9M25, due to Zesty Paws' growth in North America, partially offset by Solid Gold's decline in North America [20] - As of Sep'25, H&H held RMB1.7bn of cash, up from RMB1.6bn as of Dec'24. It has been proactive in debt management, and its near-term refinancing risk is manageable, with no major debt maturities until 2027 [21] - H&H targets to reduce net debt/adj. EBITDA to 3.7x by Dec'25 from 3.9x as of Jun'25 and considers an 80% RMB share of total debt as an optimal currency mix [22] Offshore Asia New Issues - New issued: The Hong Kong Mortgage Corporation issued USD1000mn 5yr bonds with a 3.875% coupon at T+20 [25] - In the pipeline: Bangkok Bank plans to issue 5yr and 10yr bonds at T+115 and T+130; the Government of Indonesia plans 5yr and 10yr bonds at 4.8% and 5.3%; SMBC Aviation Capital Finance plans a 10yr bond at T+145 [26] News and Market Color - There were 161 credit bonds issued onshore yesterday with an amount of RMB193bn. Month-to-date, 1,188 credit bonds were issued with a total amount of RMB1,299bn, a 35.4% yoy increase [27] - S&P upgraded Marubeni Corp by one notch to A- from BBB+ with a stable outlook [27] Company News - NWD increased the cap on exchange offers to USD1.79bn from USD1.6bn, added an early tender date on 25 Nov'25 and an extra early payment date on 1 Dec'25 [33] - PDD Holdings 9M25 revenue was up 8.7% yoy to RMB307.9bn (cUSD43.4bn) [33] - POSCO's trading arm will acquire KRW1.3tn (cUSD860mn) worth of shares in Singapore's AGPA [33] - SoftBank's USD6.5bn bid for Ampere secured HSR early termination [33] - A former TSMC executive was probed by Taiwan over potential technology transfer and received TWD147bn (cUSD4.7bn) in government subsidies over 21 months [33] - Moody's placed West China Cement under review for upgrade following a bond deal and tender offer [33] - Xiaomi 3Q25 revenue was up 22.3% yoy to RMB113.1bn (cUSD16bn) [33]

Industry Insights - The domestic demand for cranes in the Chinese engineering machinery industry continues to recover, with sales of truck-mounted cranes and crawler cranes increasing by 42% and 54% year-on-year in October, respectively, driven by energy projects and wind power installations [2] - Exports of various types of engineering machinery also performed strongly in October, except for aerial work platforms and truck-mounted cranes, confirming the previous view that non-earthmoving machinery demand is recovering and will act as a catalyst for the industry [2] - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for companies such as Zoomlion (1157 HK / 000157 CH), Sany Heavy Industry (600031 CH), and Hengli Hydraulic (601100 CH), while adopting a cautious stance on Zhejiang Dingli (603338 CH) due to the continued weakness in aerial work platform sales, which fell by 39% year-on-year in October [2] Company Insights - Pinduoduo (PDD US) reported a 9.0% year-on-year revenue growth in Q3 2025, reaching 108.3 billion RMB, slightly above Bloomberg consensus expectations, primarily driven by a 7% increase in transaction service fees [6] - Baidu (BIDU US) reported a core revenue of 24.7 billion RMB in Q3 2025, a 7.0% year-on-year decline, but slightly above market expectations, with non-GAAP operating profit showing a 67% year-on-year decline [7] - Trip.com Group (TCOM US) achieved a total revenue of 18.4 billion RMB in Q3 2025, a 15.5% year-on-year increase, exceeding both internal and market expectations, driven by strong operational leverage [8] - BOSS Zhipin (BZ US) reported a 13% year-on-year revenue growth to 2.16 billion RMB in Q3 2025, with non-GAAP net profit increasing by 34% to 999.2 million RMB, benefiting from effective control of sales and R&D expenses [10] - Xiaomi Group (1810 HK) saw a 22% year-on-year revenue growth in Q3 2025, driven by the rapidly growing smart electric vehicle business and resilient internet segment, despite pressures from rising memory costs [11] - Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US) anticipates continued revenue growth in FY26, driven by store expansion and new product strategies, despite a cautious outlook on same-store sales growth due to high base effects [12][13] - Guosheng Tang (2273 HK) is entering a phase of overseas expansion with the acquisition of a 100% stake in a Singapore-based TCM clinic, aiming for significant revenue growth in the overseas market by 2026 [17][18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7][3][8] Core Views - The company has completed the acquisition of 100% of the shares of a Singapore-based TCM clinic, marking the beginning of its overseas expansion [7][8] - The company plans to increase its store count in Singapore and expand into markets such as Hong Kong and Malaysia, with expected overseas revenue of 200-300 million RMB by 2026 [7][8] - The domestic policy environment is stabilizing, which is expected to benefit leading companies in the sector [7][8] - The management's confidence is reflected in significant share buybacks and a commitment to maintain a 50% dividend payout ratio [7][8] Financial Summary - Sales revenue is projected to grow from 3,022 million RMB in FY24 to 4,099 million RMB in FY26, representing a growth rate of 30.1% and 21.9% respectively [2][12] - Adjusted net profit is expected to increase from 400 million RMB in FY24 to 555 million RMB in FY26, with growth rates of 31.4% and 23.8% respectively [2][12] - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 1.64 RMB in FY24 to 2.40 RMB in FY26 [2][12] Valuation - The target price is set at 44.95 HKD, with a potential upside of 50.3% from the current price of 29.90 HKD [3][7] - The adjusted price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for FY26 is estimated at 11.5x [7][10] Shareholder Structure - The largest shareholder holds 35.1% of the company, indicating a concentrated ownership structure [4]

Group 1: Stock Recommendations - Geely Automobile (175 HK) has a target price of 25.00, indicating a potential upside of 47% with a PE ratio of 9.50[5] - Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US) has a target price of 44.95, suggesting a potential upside of 12% with a PE ratio of 30.00[5] - Alibaba (BABA US) has a target price of 209.40, indicating a potential upside of 33% with a PE ratio of 22.50[5] Group 2: Market Performance - The basket of 24 long positions had an average return of -3.4%, while the MSCI China Index returned -0.8%[9] - Among the 24 stocks, only 5 outperformed the benchmark[9] Group 3: Analyst Ratings - New additions include companies like Bosideng (3998 HK) and Futu Holdings (FUTU US), both rated as "Buy"[6] - The report indicates a focus on sectors such as technology, insurance, and consumer goods, with multiple stocks receiving "Buy" ratings[5][6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The Asia IG space was 1 - 2bps wider this morning, with better selling on KR/JP/HK T2s [4]. - Tactical buyers continued to pick up cheaper offers in higher - yielding LGFV names in preparation for next year, while lower - yielding CNH issues remained under selling pressure [3]. - The report maintains a buy rating on PCORPM 7.35 Perp due to better carry, trading liquidity, smooth access to diverse funding channels, and notably lower refinancing pressure [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading Desk Comments - There was better selling on Japanese names such as NOMURA/JERA/KUB/MITCO/MIZUHO/MUFG. Small selling on the BBLTB curve occurred due to news of new USD issues. PBs were buying Asia/Yankee FRNs with wider spreads. Mixed two - way flows were seen on AU/KR lower - spread names. Chinese onshore accounts were buying FRNs of leasing/security houses. Macau gaming names had price changes ranging from unchanged to 0.2pt lower, LIHHK 26 was 0.5pt higher, the NWDEVL complex was unchanged to 0.9pt lower, LASUDE 26 was down by 0.7pt. In Chinese properties, VNKRLE 27 was 0.2pt lower while VNKRLE 29 was 0.2pt higher, and some other property papers had price drops [2]. Analyst Comments - PCORPM's net leverage improved due to lower net working capital. Its revenue declined by 10% yoy in 9M25, mainly due to lower sales volume and selling price. However, gross profit increased by 15% yoy, EBITDA grew by 11% yoy, and net profit surged 37% yoy. Free cash flow jumped 361% from 9M24 to PHP47bn. The report maintains a buy on PCORPM 7.35 Perp [8][9][11]. - WESCHI proposes to issue a new USD bond to fund a tender offer for WESCHI 26 at 101.238. Holders of WESCHI 26 who subscribe to the new bond may get priority in the tender offer and preferential allocation. The offer expires on 28 Nov '25 5pm CET, and WESCHI 26 was 0.4pt higher this morning [4]. Top Performers and Underperformers - Top performers include PTTTB 4 1/2 10/25/42 (price 88.7, change 0.6), CRNAU 9 1/4 10/01/29 (price 92.4, change 0.6), CQSXGU 6.95 08/07/28 (price 99.1, change 0.6), LIHHK 4.8 06/18/26 (price 94.9, change 0.5), ROADKG 6 03/04/29 (price 19.5, change 0.5) [5]. - Top underperformers include NWDEVL 5 1/4 PERP (price 45.1, change - 0.9), TENCNT 3.68 04/22/41 (price 85.5, change - 0.9), NWDEVL 6 1/4 PERP (price 44.7, change - 0.8), LASUDE 5 07/28/26 (price 68.1, change - 0.7), NWDEVL 10.131 PERP (price 48.3, change - 0.6) [5]. Macro News Recap - On Monday, S&P (-0.92%), Dow (-1.18%), and Nasdaq (-0.84%) were lower, and UST yield was lower. The 2/5/10/30 - year yield was at 3.60%/3.72%/4.13%/4.73% [7]. Offshore Asia New Issues - Priced: Guilin ETDZ Holding Group issued a 3 - year USD40mn bond with a 5.0% coupon at 5.0% and is unrated [15]. - Pipeline: Sichuan Kaizhou Development Holding plans a 3 - year bond with a 6.5% coupon and is unrated; The Hong Kong Mortgage Corporation plans a 5 - year bond at T + 50 with a rating of Aa3/AA+/- [16]. News and Market Color - 98 credit bonds were issued onshore yesterday with an amount of RMB120bn. Month - to - date, 1,027 credit bonds were issued with a total amount of RMB1,115bn, a 27.9% yoy increase. S&P upgraded Bharti Airtel to BBB from BBB - and Del Monte Pacific 2QFY26 sales rose 10% yoy to USD234.9mn [17]. - Danantara will restore all grounded Garuda Indonesia aircraft by next year. Geely Automobile seeks a USD1.5bn - equivalent one - year loan for ZEEKR take - private. S&P downgraded Longfor to BB - from BB. NWD announced early tender results of its USD bonds and perps. Rio Tinto pauses a AUD215mn (cUSD140mn) BioIron green steel project. Transurban launches tender offers for TCLAU 3.375 03/22/27 and EUR bonds due 2028 and 2030 [23].

Group 1: Semiconductor Industry - The analog semiconductor industry is experiencing a clear internal differentiation, with power management ICs (PMIC) and signal chain markets stabilizing and entering a cyclical recovery phase after a deep downturn [2] - The mobile radio frequency front-end (RFFE) is still under pressure, while the automotive RFFE is becoming a new strategic growth area [2] - Global analog market recovery is indicated by Texas Instruments' price increases, with WSTS forecasting a 3% growth in global analog revenue in 2025 and 5% in 2026, although growth lags behind AI-driven sectors [6] Group 2: Automotive Companies - Geely Automobile (175 HK) reported a robust performance in Q3 2025, with revenue up 48% year-on-year, driven by resilient pricing of its Zeekr models [9] - Geely's gross margin improved to 16.6%, with expectations for continued growth in sales and margins due to new high-margin models and accelerated exports of new energy vehicles [8][9] - XPeng Motors (XPEV US/9868 HK) is expected to turn profitable in Q4 2025, with a projected 36% year-on-year sales growth in 2026, driven by new models and increased average selling prices [10][11] - Leap Motor (9863 HK) is also expected to see strong sales momentum, with a projected 52% year-on-year increase in total sales in 2026, supported by new model launches [12][13]