公司点评 零跑汽车（9863 HK，买入，目标价：50 港元）- B10 定价极具竞争力，25 年有望盈亏平衡 2025 年 3 月 11 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 ` 每日投资策略 公司点评 全球市场观察 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk B10 定价具有竞争力，零跑的自研实力或被低估：零跑的全新纯电 SUV B10 于 3 月 10 日晚开启预售，指导价为 109,800-139,800 元，其中搭载激光雷达 及城市 NOA 功能的智驾版本价格下探至 129,800 元。我们认为该定价极具竞 | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 23,783 | -1.85 | 39.51 | | 恒生国企 | 8,725 | -2.12 | 51.25 | | 恒生科技 | 5,885 | -2.52 | 56.35 | | 上证综指 | 3,366 | -0.19 | 13.15 | | 深证综指 | 2,081 | 0 ...

2025 年 3 月 12 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 | | 收市价 | | 升/跌（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生金融 | 38,840 | -0.88 | 30.23 | | 恒生工商业 | 14,017 | 0.40 | 51.80 | | 恒生地产 | 16,316 | 0.67 | -10.98 | | 恒生公用事业 | 34,913 | 0.15 | 6.20 | | 资料来源：彭博 | | | | 敬请参阅尾页之免责声明 请到彭博 (搜索代码: RESP CMBR )或 http://www.cmbi.com.hk 下载更多研究报告 1 周二（3 月 11 日）中国股市再次跑赢全球。恒指持平，恒生科技大涨，必选 消费、医疗保健与资讯科技板块涨幅居前，原材料、金融与电讯板块下跌。 A 股表现好于港股，必选消费、原材料与金融板块领涨。中概股大涨，纳斯 达克中国金龙指数收涨 2.8%，富时 A50期指连续夜盘小幅上涨。国债期货价 格下跌，国债收益率上升，人民币走强。投资者关注存量房收储政策效果是 否改善，因 ...

2025 年 3 月 11 日 招银国际环球市场 | 宏观研究 | 宏观视角 全球经济 海湖庄园协议构想：前景与影响 对较大，但对美国金融强权收益和金融市场稳定冲击相对较小。Miran 希 望既重振美国制造业，又不严重损害美元国际地位，所以建议推动主要国 家多边政策调整。 敬请参阅尾页之免责声明 2 具体政策。（1）以关税施压贸易伙伴联合干预汇率，推动美元大幅贬 值，提升美国制造与出口竞争力。（2）以关税和国债投资费（截留国债 票息）施压外国政府性债权人将持有的美国国债置换为 100 年不可交易的 无息"世纪债券"，降低美国政府偿债负担，令债权人承担更多国际货币 公共品成本。（3）美国对盟友的安全承诺（军事保护）与盟友购买"世 纪债券"挂钩，降低美国对全球安全投入，令盟友承担更多全球安全成 本。（4）指导美联储用 QE 应对可能的外国投资者抛售和国债收益率上 升，用外汇干预应对可能的美元升值。（5）将自然资源（如黄金、石 油、矿产储备、联邦土地）货币化创建主权财富基金，投资美国制造业与 基础设施。 政策难度。第（1）条政策难度中等。如果特朗普威胁的关税税率非常 高，那么可以创造出有力的交易杠杆令贸易伙伴接受联 ...

2025 年 3 月 11 日 招银国际环球市场 | 宏观研究 | 宏观视角 全球经济 海湖庄园协议构想：前景与影响 市场盛传的海湖庄园协议构想主要来自白宫经济顾问委员会主席 Stephen Miran 的一篇报告1。该报告提出多国联合干预推动美元贬值、征收对等关税、发行无 息"世纪债券"置换美国国债、盟友分摊全球公共品成本等政策。联合干预汇 率政策难度相对较小，可以推动美元短期快速贬值，但难以重振美国制造业， 可能推升通胀预期，打击资本流入。国债置换政策难度相对较大，对降低美债 利率作用有限，可能降低美债吸引力，打击美元国际地位，削弱美国盟友体 系。相比 1985 年广场协议，海湖庄园协议构想面对更具对抗性的地缘政治关系 和更加复杂的经贸关系，政策目标更加多元且相互冲突，推动美元贬值、剥夺 美债收益与维持美元地位相矛盾，国债置换面临市场接受度与法律可行性挑 战，关税政策面临盟友、贸易伙伴与国内零售商反对，通胀压力将限制政策空 间，该协议构想落地和实现目标的难度都明显更大。该协议构想凸显特朗普 "美国优先"、贸易保护主义和经济民族主义的世界观。如果特朗普强行推进 该协议构想，那么将引发美国金融市场短期动荡，利 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Leap Motor (零跑汽车) with a target price of HKD 50 [1][3]. Core Insights - The pricing of the new B10 electric SUV is highly competitive, with a pre-sale price range of RMB 109,800 to 139,800, which may lead to an increase in sales forecasts for 2025 [1]. - The company is expected to achieve breakeven in 2025, with a projected gross margin increase and a significant rise in total revenue [2]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are set to grow significantly, with expectations of reaching RMB 510 billion and RMB 575 billion respectively [3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Leap Motor's B10 model is anticipated to boost sales, with an upward revision of 25,000 units for the 2025 sales forecast, raising total sales expectations from 450,000 to 480,000 units [1]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the gross margin increased by 5.2 percentage points to 13.3%, with total revenue rising by 37% to RMB 13.5 billion, marking the first net profit of RMB 81 million [2]. - The overall gross margin for 2025 is expected to improve by 2.9 percentage points to 11.2%, driven by cost reductions from the Leap 3.5 platform [2]. Future Projections - Revenue for 2025 is projected to grow by 59% year-on-year, reaching RMB 510 billion, while 2026 is expected to see a net profit of RMB 1.26 billion with the launch of new models [3]. - The target price has been raised to HKD 50 based on a price-to-sales ratio of 1.2x for FY25, aligning with the average valuation multiples of new energy vehicle manufacturers in China [3].

2025年3月11日 CMB国际全球市场 | 股票研究 | 公司更新 Leapmotor (9863 HK) 竞争性定价 B10 在2024年第四季度实现强劲的 利润率。 Leapmotor 推出了其 B10 3月10日的EV发布，预售价范围在人民币109,800-1 39,800。具备激光雷达和城市NOA功能型号的价格低至人民币129,800。我们 认为这样的价格具有竞争力。考虑到Leapmotor利用Qualcomm 8650芯片进行 自主研发的自动驾驶，我们认为许多投资者仍然低估了Leapmotor的研发能力 。因此，我们将其在FY25E年的B系列销量上调25,000单位。我们还将其在FY2 5E年的总销量上调30,000单位至0.48mn单位。 在FY25E实现可能的盈亏平衡，得益于规模经济的扩大和强劲的2024年第 四季度利润率。 Leapmotor的2024年第四季度毛利率环比上升5.2个百分点至1 3.3%，符合其盈利预警。其2024年第四季度收入环比增长37%至人民币135亿 元，净利润为人民币8100万元，甚至强于预期。 我们之前的预测 我们预计， 凭借Leap 3.5架构在降低成本方面的帮 ...

11 Mar 2025 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Leapmotor (9863 HK) Competitive pricing for B10 with strong 4Q24 margins Maintain BUY. Leapmotor's aggressive pre-sale price for its new B10 EV, along with its in-house autonomous driving (AD) and chassis capabilities, gives us more confidence about its sales. We revise up its FY25E sales volume by 7% to 0.48mn units. We also project a minimal net loss in FY25E and a net profit of RMB1.26bn in FY26E with more new A and D series ...

Employment Data - In February, the U.S. added 151,000 non-farm jobs, slightly below the market expectation of 160,000[1] - Private sector employment rebounded significantly, increasing from 81,000 in January to 140,000 in February[1] - The unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to 4.1%, with a notable increase in the broader U6 unemployment rate[1] Wage Growth and Inflation - Average hourly earnings growth decreased from 0.48% in January to 0.28% in February, aligning with market expectations[1] - Year-on-year wage growth fell to 4.02%, indicating a trend of moderate wage growth slowdown[1] Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a neutral policy stance in the short term, with potential pauses in rate cuts during March, May, and June[1] - There is an increased likelihood of a rate cut in September or December, contingent on economic slowdown due to Trump's policies[1] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate decreased from 62.6% to 62.4%, with participation among those aged 55 and older dropping to a historical low of 38.1%[1] - The broader U6 unemployment rate rose from 7.5% to 8%, primarily due to an increase in part-time employment[1]

Strategy Insights - Short-term risk appetite is expected to decline due to geopolitical uncertainties and economic factors [2][4][19] - The emergence of DeepSeek is anticipated to increase the demand for computing power, leading to significant growth in usage due to reduced resource costs [1][2] Macro Economic Overview - China's economy shows signs of localized improvement, with a rebound in real estate, durable consumption, and commodity exports [2][13] - The GDP growth rate is projected to be slightly above 5% in the first half of the year, supported by improved consumer sentiment [13][18] Technology Sector - The technology sector is expected to outperform the market, driven by a recovery in global smartphone and PC demand, AI innovations, and increased capital expenditure from major players [2][4] - Key investment themes include the acceleration of AI applications, demand for AI servers, and advancements in smart driving technologies [2][4] Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor sector remains optimistic, with three main investment themes: AI, self-sufficiency in the semiconductor supply chain, and high dividend defensive strategies [2][4] - The introduction of low-cost AI models is expected to boost domestic demand for computing power and enhance investment returns in AI [2][4] Internet Sector - The market is beginning to reassess the growth potential of internet companies, focusing on their technology attributes rather than just consumption characteristics [4] - Key stocks to watch include Trip.com, Kuaishou, Alibaba, and Tencent, which are expected to benefit from AI-related growth catalysts [4][11] Healthcare Sector - The healthcare sector is poised for valuation recovery in 2025, supported by improved domestic drug pricing policies and macroeconomic conditions [2][4] - Recommended stocks include Innovent Biologics, BeiGene, and WuXi AppTec, which are expected to benefit from favorable market conditions [4][11] Consumer Goods - The essential consumer goods sector is expected to remain resilient, with companies like Nongfu Spring and China Resources Beverage showing strong performance [4][11] - The beauty and skincare sector is also seeing growth, with domestic brands like Proya and Han Shu gaining market share [4][11] Automotive Sector - The new energy vehicle market is recovering, with sales expected to rise significantly in the coming months [5][11] - Recommended stocks include Geely and XPeng Motors, which are well-positioned to capitalize on technological advancements [5][11] Real Estate and Property Management - The real estate sector shows optimism, with contract sales expected to perform better than previously anticipated [5][11] - Key players to watch include China Resources Land and Longfor Group, which are expected to benefit from improved market conditions [5][11] Insurance Sector - The insurance sector is expected to see a return to normal growth rates, with significant increases in new business value anticipated for major insurers [5][11] - Recommended stocks include China Pacific Insurance and AIA Group, which are expected to benefit from favorable market dynamics [5][11] Capital Goods - The capital goods sector is expected to benefit from seasonal demand and government initiatives, particularly in the construction machinery segment [5][11] - Recommended stocks include Zoomlion and SANY Heavy Industry, which are well-positioned for growth [5][11]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the real estate sector, with a recommendation to increase allocation to quality stocks within the sector due to a high probability of positive performance in Q2 2025 [1][21]. Core Insights - The report indicates a ~70% probability that the real estate sector will be positively impacted in Q2 2025, driven by favorable sales data and potential policy support [1][21]. - Key factors contributing to the optimistic outlook include improved sentiment in the market, proactive regulatory measures, and a recovering financing environment [20][21]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - Sales data for January and February showed stability, with new home transaction area in 30 cities increasing by 1% year-on-year, and second-hand home transactions in 16 cities rising by 39% year-on-year [2][7][8]. - The new home subscription index has been rising since the Lunar New Year, indicating a potential increase in sales for March [15][20]. Market Sentiment and Policy Impact - The report emphasizes the importance of policy measures in maintaining buyer confidence, especially in light of potential seasonal sales declines in Q2 [20][21]. - The analysis suggests that the likelihood of policy intervention is high if sales decline exceeds expectations, which could further support the market [22][25]. Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on quality stocks that are likely to benefit from the recovery in the real estate market, including companies like Beike (BEKE US), China Resources Land (1109 HK), and Longfor Group (960 HK) [29][30]. - The report highlights the importance of companies with strong land acquisition capabilities and those in property management services as potential beneficiaries in the current market environment [29][30].