Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Naura Technology, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [19]. Core Insights - Naura Technology's new orders increased by approximately 25% year-over-year in 2024, driven by strong integrated circuit (IC) orders, with continued momentum into the first quarter of 2025 [1]. - The company is expanding its product portfolio through internal R&D and external acquisitions, including a planned acquisition of a 17.9% stake in Kingsemi, a photolithography coating equipment maker [1]. - Naura is positioned as a leading player in China's semiconductor equipment market, benefiting from the country's push for semiconductor localization amid tightening export restrictions [1][9]. - The target price remains unchanged at RMB 512, based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 36.8x for 2025 estimates, reflecting an 18.1% upside from the current price of RMB 433.66 [3][9]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 22,079 million in FY23A to RMB 38,909 million in FY25E, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30.4% [2]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 3,899.1 million in FY23A to RMB 7,426.9 million in FY25E, with a year-over-year growth of 32.1% [2]. - The gross margin is forecasted to improve from 41.1% in FY23A to 43.4% in FY25E, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [2]. Market Context - The semiconductor equipment capital expenditure in China is estimated to exceed US$50 billion in 2024, driven by strong demand amid geopolitical uncertainties [9]. - Naura anticipates a normalization of demand for overseas products, which may create more opportunities for local vendors [9]. - The company expects investment in domestic mature nodes to stabilize over the next 2-3 years, while advanced logic and memory segments are projected to drive future growth [9].

每日投资策略 行业、公司点评 全球市场观察 2025 年 5 月 21 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 行业点评 中国工程机械行业 - 四月份非土方机械销售依然好坏不一 中国工程机械工业协会发布了 4 月份全系列工程机械销售数据。与上月类似， 4 月份非土方机械销量涨跌互现（而上周发布的土方机械数据则相对强劲）。 叉车销量总体保持韧性，而塔式起重机的国内销量（同比下降 61%）和出口 （同比增长 49%）仍然呈现较大分化。高空作业平台销量同比下降 31%, 依 然疲软。我们继续看好土方机械，因为无论是在项目周期还是更新换代周期 中，土方机械都是率先复苏的细分设备。我们继续看好三一重工（600031 CH，买入）和恒立液压（601100 CH，买入），主要由于挖掘机相关收入占 比相对较高。我们仍然看好中联重科（1157 HK / 000157 CH，买入）通过广 泛的产品线在新兴市场快速扩张的策略。相反，由于美国关税政策的不确定 性，我们维持对浙江鼎力（603338 CH，持有）的谨慎观点。（链接） 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Trip.com Group (TCOM), with a target price of US$70.00, indicating a potential upside of 10.4% from the current price of US$63.38 [2][16]. Core Insights - Trip.com Group reported a total revenue of RMB13.9 billion for 1Q25, reflecting a 16% year-over-year growth, which aligns with forecasts and consensus estimates. The non-GAAP operating income was RMB4.0 billion, exceeding expectations by 7% due to optimized sales and marketing expenditures [1]. - The company is on track with its overseas expansion strategy, which is expected to enhance long-term value despite potential short-term earnings pressure from increased investments [1]. - The report anticipates resilient revenue growth in 2Q25, projecting a total revenue of RMB14.6 billion, representing a 15% year-over-year increase [7]. Financial Performance - For FY25E, total revenue is projected at RMB61.5 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 15.2%. The adjusted net profit is expected to be RMB17.8 billion, reflecting a slight decline of 1.3% compared to FY24A [8][10]. - The non-GAAP operating profit margin for 1Q25 was reported at 29.2%, which is 1.7 percentage points better than consensus estimates, driven by effective cost management [7][9]. - The company’s gross profit margin for 1Q25 was 80.3%, slightly below consensus expectations, indicating a need for continued focus on cost efficiency as revenue contributions from Trip.com increase [7][9]. Market Position and Growth - Trip.com’s domestic business showed strong booking volume growth, with hotel bookings increasing by approximately 10-15% year-over-year in 2Q25, while outbound bookings surpassed 120% of 2019 levels in 1Q25 [7]. - The international segment accounted for 13% of total revenue in 1Q25, with over 50% year-over-year growth, suggesting a robust recovery and expansion in overseas markets [7]. - The company is expected to maintain its investment strategy to support international growth, particularly in emerging markets like Japan, Malaysia, and Thailand, while also investing in new markets such as the Middle East and Europe [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Bilibili, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [21]. Core Insights - Bilibili's total revenue for 1Q25 increased by 24% year-over-year to RMB7.0 billion, aligning with Bloomberg consensus estimates. The adjusted net income reached RMB362 million, a significant improvement from a net loss of RMB456 million in 1Q24, driven by gross profit margin expansion and controlled R&D expenses [1][2]. - For 2Q25, the expectation is for continued strong performance with a projected 20% year-over-year revenue growth, supported by advertising and mobile games [1]. - The target price has been fine-tuned to US$26.5, reflecting a 46% upside from the current price of US$18.15, based on a 25x FY26E non-GAAP PE [3][11]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Growth**: - FY23A: RMB22,528 million - FY24A: RMB26,832 million (19.1% YoY growth) - FY25E: RMB30,584 million (14.0% YoY growth) [2][18]. - **Gross Margin**: - FY23A: 24.2% - FY24A: 32.7% - FY25E: 36.9% [2][18]. - **Adjusted Net Profit**: - FY23A: (RMB3,533.8 million) - FY24A: (RMB22.1 million) - FY25E: RMB2,243.8 million [2][18]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - FY25E: 534.14 RMB cents, compared to consensus EPS of 4.53 RMB [2][18]. Business Segment Performance - **Value-Added Services (VAS)**: Revenue grew by 11% YoY to RMB2.81 billion, driven by live streaming and innovative monetization methods [7]. - **Advertising Revenue**: Increased by 20% YoY to RMB2.00 billion, with performance ads growing over 30% YoY [7]. - **Mobile Games Revenue**: Strong growth of 76% YoY to RMB1.73 billion, attributed to the success of the game "SanMou" [7]. Margin Expansion - The overall gross profit margin improved by 8 percentage points YoY to 36.3% in 1Q25, with adjusted operating profit margin rising by 14 percentage points YoY to 4.9% [7][8]. Valuation and Target Price - The SOTP-derived target price of US$26.5 reflects the valuation of different business segments: - Advertising: US$12.7 (48% of total valuation) - VAS: US$6.4 (24%) - Mobile Games: US$7.2 (27%) [11][12][13]. Market Data - Market capitalization stands at approximately US$7.62 billion, with a 52-week high of US$29.66 and a low of US$12.96 [3]. - The average trading volume over the past three months is US$65.4 million [3]. User Engagement Metrics - Monthly Active Users (MAUs) grew by 8% YoY to 368 million, with average daily time spent on the platform increasing by 3% YoY to 108 minutes [7]. Future Outlook - Management is optimistic about sustaining growth in mobile games, particularly with upcoming content releases for "SanMou" [7]. - For 2Q25, total revenue is expected to reach RMB7.36 billion, with mobile games, advertising, and VAS revenue projected to grow by 63%, 18%, and 11% YoY, respectively [7].

宏观经济 中国经济-数据仍然稳健降低政策强刺激概率 2025 年 5 月 20 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 宏观及公司点评 全球市场观察 在关税冲击下，4 月中国经济活动总体放缓，但依然比预期强劲。社会零售 额增速小幅降低但仍然稳健，"以旧换新"政策支撑耐用品零售保持较快增 长。工业增加值和固定资产投资增速均略有回落，但仍高于 2024 年水平。 贸易战缓和提振市场情绪，但也降低政策强刺激概率。我们将第二季度中国 GDP 增长预测从 4.5%上调至 4.8%，下半年和全年增速分别为 4.7%和 4.9%。 由于房地产市场走弱、抢出口透支外需和以旧换新政策刺激效应边际递减， 中国经济在第三季度可能面临进一步放缓压力。政策宽松时点可能推迟至第 四季度，财政刺激、提振消费和去产能作为中国经济再平衡的重点政策可能 成为中美谈判中中方的重要出价。（链接） 公司点评 零跑汽车（9863 HK，买入，目标价：72 港元）- 1Q25 超预期；后续展望更 趋乐观 1Q25 毛利率超预期：零跑一季度收入较我们预期高出 8%，在一季度终端折 扣扩大的背景下公司仍然实现了平均售价的环比提升。一季 ...

招银国际环球市场有限公司 焦点股份 2025年5月20日 招银国际焦点股份 | 公司名称 长 仓 吉利汽车 小鹏汽车 中联重科 三一重工 亚朵集团 瑞幸咖啡 珀莱雅 | 股票代码 175 HK XPEV US 1157 HK 600031 CH ATAT US LKNCY US 603605 CH | 招银国际焦点股份 行 业 汽车 汽车 装备制造 装备制造 可选消费 可选消费 必选消费 | 评 级 买入 买入 买入 买入 买入 买入 买入 | 市 值 (十亿美元) 25.0 19.7 8.4 22.7 4.1 9.1 5.4 | 平均日交易量 (百万美元) 200.2 248.2 11.8 197.8 40.0 97.5 67.9 | 股 价 （当地货币)（当地货币) 19.38 20.67 5.62 19.28 29.63 32.00 | 目标价 24.00 28.00 7.40 22.00 33.31 40.61 133.86 | 行 上/下 空 间 24% 35% 32% 14% 12% 27% 37% | 市盈率(倍) FY24A 10.90 N/A 13.00 28.30 23.60 25.40 ...

More positive on FY25E after 1Q25 beat Maintain BUY. Leapmotor's 1Q25 net loss of RMB130mn beat our prior forecasts on higher average selling price (ASP) and GPM, as well as unexpected contribution from the strategic cooperation. We believe its cost reduction efforts, driven by its undervalued in-house R&D capabilities, have started to be reflected by its 1Q25 GPM and could be even more apparent after all the models are shifted to the Leap 3.5 architecture in mid-2025. We raise our FY25E sales volume foreca ...

20五月2025 盈利/估值。 我们将2025财年净利润预测从-9800万元上调至11800万元。 我们同样认为，理想汽车在2026财年将实现更显著利润增长。基于近期改善的 市场情绪以及理想汽车盈利前景的提升，我们维持买入评级，并将目标价从50. 00港元上调至72.00港元（基于1.5倍2025财年市销率，此前为1.3倍）。我们 对评级和目标价的主要风险包括销量和/或利润率低于预期，以及行业降级。 收益总结 | (YE 31 Dec) | FY23A | FY24A | FY25E | FY26E | FY27E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收入（人民币百万） | 16,747 | 32,164 | 58,993 | 63,046 | 67,905 | | 同比增长率 (%) | 35.2 | 92.1 | 83.4 | 6.9 | 7.7 | | 毛利率 (%) | 0.5 | 8.4 | 12.1 | 12.9 | 12.8 | | 营业利润（人民币百万元） | (4,377.4) | (3,171.1) | (404.7) | 206.8 | 3 ...

Macro Commentary - The US economy shows signs of slowing down, with significant declines in retail and manufacturing output due to tariff impacts, particularly affecting durable goods like automobiles and electronics [2] - Despite the slowdown, unemployment claims remain stable, indicating that the service sector is less affected, and employment in this sector remains robust [2] - Inflation is expected to rebound temporarily from May to August, with the Federal Reserve likely to maintain interest rates until September, when a potential rate cut may occur [2] Industry Commentary - The Chinese pharmaceutical sector is experiencing a strong trend in innovative drug exports, with several significant business development transactions occurring despite recent tariff tensions [5][6] - The MSCI China Healthcare Index has risen by 14.9% since early 2025, although it has underperformed compared to the broader MSCI China Index [5] - The US innovative drug prices are unlikely to decrease in the short term due to recent executive orders, but long-term pressures on healthcare spending are anticipated [7] Company Initiation - The report covers Angelalign Technology (6699 HK), a leading provider of invisible orthodontic solutions in China, which has maintained a market share of 42% in the domestic market [9][10] - The company is expected to achieve a revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23.8% from 2019 to 2024, with a projected CAGR of 18.0% from 2024 to 2027 [9] - Angelalign is expanding internationally, with a goal to cover over 50 countries and achieve significant revenue growth from overseas markets, which is expected to account for 30% of total revenue by 2024 [11][12]

Economic Overview - In April, U.S. retail and manufacturing output significantly slowed, indicating the impact of tariffs on consumer confidence and demand[1] - Retail sales for durable goods, such as automobiles and furniture, showed a marked decline, while non-durable goods retail also weakened[1] - The unemployment rate remains low, with initial jobless claims at 229,000, consistent with market expectations, and continuing claims slightly rising to 1.881 million[2] Inflation and Federal Reserve Outlook - Inflation is expected to rebound in the short term from May to August, but the unemployment rate is projected to remain low, leading the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged[2] - Inflation may peak around September and start to decline thereafter, with potential rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in September and possibly again in November or December[1][2] Retail Performance - April retail and food service sales showed a seasonally adjusted month-on-month growth of 0.1%, slightly above the market expectation of 0%[5] - Durable goods consumption, particularly in automotive, fell from a growth of 5.5% in March to -0.1% in April, while non-durable goods like sports and clothing saw declines of -2.5% and -0.4% respectively[5] Manufacturing Output - Industrial production remained flat in April, slightly below the expected 0.1% increase, with manufacturing output declining by 0.4%[5] - Key sectors such as electrical lighting and medical equipment saw declines of 3.4% and 2.2%, while aerospace and semiconductor production grew by 1% and 2% respectively[5]