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招银国际每日投资策略-20250728
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2025-07-28 03:18
Company Analysis - Sanofi has entered a global licensing agreement with Pfizer for the PD-1/VEGF dual antibody 707, which includes an upfront payment of $1.25 billion, potential milestone payments of up to $4.8 billion, and a double-digit sales revenue share [2] - Pfizer will subscribe to 31,142,500 shares of Sanofi at HKD 25.2 per share, totaling approximately HKD 785 million (around $100 million) [2] - The agreement grants Pfizer an option for rights in China, which could yield an additional $150 million if exercised [2] Clinical Development Insights - The 707 antibody is noted for its differentiated structure, which may provide advantages in efficacy and safety compared to similar PD-1/VEGF dual antibodies [5] - Pfizer's management expressed confidence in the clinical data for 707, indicating its potential as a foundational treatment option for multiple indications [5][6] - The Phase II clinical data presented at ASCO showed a 64.7% confirmed overall response rate (cORR) in patients with PD-L1+ NSCLC [5] Market Outlook - Pfizer plans to accelerate the global Phase III clinical development of 707, exploring its use as a monotherapy and in combination with chemotherapy and ADCs [6] - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Sanofi with a target price of HKD 37.67, reflecting an upward adjustment in sales expectations due to Pfizer's rapid development plans [6] Other Company Insights - Thermo Fisher Scientific reported a 3.0% year-over-year revenue growth in Q2 2025, with adjusted EPS declining by 0.2% [7] - The company has raised its full-year guidance, expecting revenue growth between 1.7% and 3.1% [7][8] - Zhejiang Dingli's Q2 2025 net profit increased by 19% year-over-year, primarily driven by foreign exchange gains [8]
固定收益部市场日报-20250725
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2025-07-25 06:38
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the documents Core Viewpoints - Maintain a buy recommendation for HYUELEs due to SK Hynix's resilience against trade - wars, strong global market position, solid operating cash flow, and a more balanced risk - return profile [2][6] - Expect SK Hynix's revenue and operating profit growth momentum to continue in 2025, supported by strong demand for memory used in AI services [11] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading Desk Comments - In Chinese IGs, TENCNT 30/BABA 31 tightened 1bp, MEITUA 30 widened 1bp, ZHOSHK 28 tightened 5bps [1] - In financials, CMINLE/CSILTD/BCLMHK Float 27 - 30s were unchanged to 2bps tighter, SUMIBK/MIZUHO 30 - 31s were 1 - 2bps tighter, BBLTB 36 - 40s closed 1 - 3bps tighter [1] - In insurance, CATLIF 34 tightened 1bp, NSINTW 34 widened 1bp, MYLIFE/NIPLIF 55s were up 0.1pt [1] - In AT1s, BNP 7.75/HSBC 6.95 Perps were up 0.2 - 0.4pt, EFGBNK 5.5/INTNED 4.25 Perps were up 0.4 - 0.6pt [1] - In HK, DAHSIN/BNKEA 32 - 34s were 1 - 2bps tighter, REGH 6.5 Perp/HYSAN 4.1 Perp/LASUDE 26 lowered 0.5 - 0.9pt [1] - In Chinese properties, ROADKG 28 - 30s were 0.2 - 2.3pts lower, ROADKG Perps were unchanged. Road King launched a holder identification for all of its three perps [1] - Outside properties, WESCHI 26 was 1.7pts higher following 1H25 positive profit alert, FOSUNI 25 - 28s were up 0.1 - 0.5pt after Fosun announced early redemption [1] - In SEA, GLPSP Perps were up 0.4 - 0.5pt, VLLPM 29 was down 0.7pt [1] - In CNH space, new CNH TEMASE 1.85 30/TEMASE 2.05 35 were 0.1 - 0.2pt lower, TEMASE 2.55 55 was 0.3pt higher; new CNH CHMEDA 2 30/CHMEDA 2.3 35 were 0.2 - 0.3pt lower [2] - LGENSO 27 - 35s tightened 1 - 3bps following a 31% qoq rise in 2Q25 operating profit from 1Q25 [2] - HYUELE 1 ½ 01/19/26 and HYUELE 2 ⅜ 01/19/31 were 2 - 5bps tighter post - results announcement, while HYUELE 6 ¼ 01/17/26 and HYUELE 6 ⅜ 01/17/28 were 2 - 5bps wider [2] - ROADKG 28 - 30s were 0.2 - 2.3pts lower yesterday and unchanged this morning. Road King and CVC seek full exit from Indonesian toll road business for USD1bn [2] - In SOE perps, CHPWCN Perp was up 0.1pt, SPICPD Perp was down 0.1pt [3] Last Trading Day's Top Movers - Top Performers: WESCHI 4.95 07/08/26 price was 92.3 with a change of 1.7; GRNLGR 5 7/8 07/03/30 price was 23.2 with a change of 1.3; NSANY 7 3/4 07/17/32 price was 101.4 with a change of 0.7; NSANY 4.81 09/17/30 price was 91.4 with a change of 0.6; EFGBNK 5 1/2 PERP price was 97.2 with a change of 0.6 [4] - Top Underperformers: ROADKG 5.9 09/05/28 price was 24.8 with a change of - 2.3; ROADKG 5.2 07/12/29 price was 23.7 with a change of - 2.3; ROADKG 6.7 03/30/28 price was 25.1 with a change of - 1.4; ROADKG 6 03/04/29 price was 24.6 with a change of - 1.2; REGH 6 1/2 PERP price was 21.7 with a change of - 0.9 [4] Macro News Recap - On Thursday, S&P was up 0.07%, Dow was down 0.70%, and Nasdaq was up 0.18%. US Jul'25 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was 49.5 (lower than the market expectation of 52.7), and US Jul'25 S&P Global Services PMI was 55.2 (higher than the market expectation of 53.0) [5] - Trump and Powell clashed at Fed headquarters. UST yield was higher on Thursday, with 2/5/10/30 yield at 3.91%/3.98%/4.43%/4.96% [5] Desk Analyst Comments - Maintain a buy recommendation for HYUELEs. Prefer HYUELE 1 ½ 01/19/26 and HYUELE 2 ⅜ 01/19/31 for lower cash prices. They were traded at YTM of 4.7%/Z + 34bps and YTM of 4.8%/Z + 117bps respectively, and provide 6 - 30bps yield pick - up over Micron's bonds [6] SK Hynix Business and Financial Analysis - SK Hynix achieved record - high revenue and operating profit in 2Q25, driven by aggressive AI investments from leading tech companies and customers accelerating inventory purchases ahead of tariff policy changes [9] - DRAM bit shipments rose by mid - 20% qoq, ASP increased by a low - single digit qoq. NAND bit shipments surged 70% qoq, but ASP declined by a high single - digit qoq [10] - SK Hynix expects DRAM bit shipments to grow by low - to - mid single digit in 3Q25, and increase in NAND bit shipments to be limited. It shipped the industry's first HBM4 samples in Mar'25 and is optimizing performance with partners [11] - As of Jun'25, cash balance increased by 19% qoq to KRW17.0tn. Capex is expected to be higher than the original plan, especially for HBM - related equipment. M15X fab will open in 4Q25 and start full - scale DRAM production in 2026. Yong - in fab (Phase 1) is on track for completion in 2Q27 [12] - SK Hynix's leverage was lower as of Jun'25. Net debts decreased by 46% qoq to KRW4.9tn. Upcoming USD bond maturities are HYUELE Float 11/17/25 of USD300mn due in Nov'25 and two USD bonds totaling USD1.75bn due Jan'26. It is expected to refinance at reasonable costs [13] Offshore Asia New Issues - No new offshore Asia issues were priced today - Pipeline issues include Dazhou Kaisheng Construction Development Group (USD, 3yr, 7.0%, Unrated), Sichuan Zigong Huidong Development (USD, 3yr, 6.8%, Unrated), and Tianjin Binhai New Area Construction & Investment Group (USD, 3yr, 5.8%, Baa2/ - / - ) [17] News and Market Color - 134 credit bonds were issued onshore yesterday with an amount of RMB137bn. Month - to - date, 1,722 credit bonds were issued with a total amount of RMB1,842bn, a 15.8% yoy increase [18] - Adani Enterprises and MetTube partner to build copper tube ecosystem; Adani Energy 1Q26 total EBITDA rises 14.5% yoy to INR20.17bn (cUSD233.5mn) [18] - China Energy Reserve and Chemicals Group adjourns meetings for six bonds due to lack of quorum; Country Garden agrees to key terms with key bank creditors on offshore restructuring [18] - Fosun unit looks to issue RMB1bn yulan bonds by mid - Aug'25; Danantara looks to buy Jiangsu Delong smelter unit in Indonesia through MIND ID [18] - JD.com in advanced talks to buy German retailer Ceconomy for EUR2.2bn (cUSD2.6bn); Mongolian Mining 2Q25 washed coking coal sales drop 25% yoy to 1.74mn tons [18] - Samsung Heavy Industries 1H25 sales rise 6% yoy to KRW5.18tn (cUSD3.76bn); Sands China eyes USD2.7bn annual EBITDA run rate [18] - Sinopec 1H25 oil and gas production rises 2% yoy to 262.81mn barrels of oil equivalent; SoftBank - backed tech startup InMobi plans India IPO at up to USD6bn valuation [18]
每日投资策略-20250725
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2025-07-25 02:20
Group 1: 中广核矿业 (CGN Mining) - 中广核矿业预计在2025年上半年将录得约6800万元人民币的净亏损,主要由于国际铀贸易业务的一次性负毛利率和铀现货价格下跌的影响 [1] - 2025年盈利预测已下调47%至2.6亿元人民币,以反映上半年的潜在疲弱业绩 [1] - 尽管短期内面临挑战,但预计下半年将出现复苏,2026年将实现强劲增长,尤其是新定价机制将推动盈利增长 [1] Group 2: 谷歌 (Google) - 谷歌公布2025年第二季度业绩,总收入同比增长14%至964亿美元,净利润同比增长19%至282亿美元,均高于市场预期 [2] - 预计2025年下半年广告收入将面临高基数影响,但谷歌云收入增长预计将保持强劲,资本支出指引上调至850亿美元 [2] - 基于强劲的云业务增长前景,目标价上调至221.0美元 [2] Group 3: ServiceNow - ServiceNow公布2025年第二季度业绩,总营收同比增长22.5%至32.2亿美元,非GAAP运营利润同比增长33%至9.55亿美元,均高于市场预期 [2] - cRPO在固定汇率下同比增长21.5%,超出公司指引200个基点 [2] - 基于强劲的盈利前景和行业估值提升,目标价上调至1,175美元 [2]
固定收益部市场日报-20250724
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2025-07-24 07:25
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides a daily update on the fixed - income market, including bond price changes, new issuances, and macro - news. It also analyzes the profit situation of WESCHI and gives investment suggestions [1][7][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading Desk Comments - Yesterday, GUOTJU priced a 3 - year floating - rated bond at SOFR + 60 (IPT at SOFR + 115). In KR, spreads of DAESEC/SHINFN/NACF 26 - 30s widened by 1 - 2bps. HYNMTR Float 30 tightened 8bps, and HYNMTR 5.3 29/HYNMTR 3.5 31 tightened 2 - 4bps [1]. - In Chinese IGs, BABA/HAOHUA 28 - 35s were unchanged to 1bps tighter, while MEITUA 30 widened 2bps. In financials, BBLTB/KBANK 31 - 40s tightened 2 - 4bps, and NANYAN/BNKEA 30 - 34s tightened 2 - 3bps [1]. - In insurance, SHIKON/CATLIF 34 - 35s were unchanged to 1bp tighter. MYLIFE/NIPLIF 54 - 55s and SUMILF/FUKOKU Perps were up 0.1 - 0.3pt. In AT1s, NWG 7.3/BNP 7.375/HSBC 6.95 Perps were up 0.2 - 0.8pt [1]. - In HK, AIA/CKHH 30 - 35s tightened 1 - 2bps under buying from PBs. LIFUNG 5.25 Perp was 3.1pts higher, and LIFUNG 5.25 08/18/25 was up 0.1pt. Li & Fung launched a tender offer for LIFUNG 5.25 Perp up to USD50mn at USD55 and mandated a 3.5 - year USD bond issuance [1]. - HYSAN/FAEACO Perps were up 0.2 - 0.5pt. LASUDE 26 was up 0.7pt. Media reported Lai Sun Development has been working on a HKD3.5bn 5 - year loan refinancing deal. NWDEVL 27 - 31s/Perps were unchanged to 0.4pt lower [1]. - In Chinese properties, ROADKG 28 - 30s were 0.5 - 3.6pts lower, and ROADKG Perps were unchanged to 0.2pt lower. Outside properties, WESCHI 26 was up 0.2pt. FOSUNI 25 - 28s were up 0.3 - 0.5pt. MONMIN 30 was up 0.7pt, closed 2.6pts higher WTD [1]. New Issuances - TEMASE priced 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year CNH bonds at par to yield 1.85%, 2.05%, and 2.55% (IPT at 2.3%, 2.55%, and 3.05%) respectively [2]. - CHMEDA priced 5 - year and 10 - year CNH bonds at par to yield 2% and 2.3% (IPT at 2.55% and 2.85% area) respectively [4]. - Jiaozuo State - owned Capital Operation (Holding) Group issued a 150 - million 3 - year bond at a 6.5% coupon rate, unrated [12]. Morning Updates - This morning, the new CNH TEMASE 1.85 30/TEMASE 2.05 35 were 0.1 - 0.2pt lower, while TEMASE 2.55 55 was 0.5pt higher from ROs at par. The new CNH CHMEDA 2 30/CHMEDA 2.3 35 were unchanged to 0.1pt lower. VLLPM 29 was up 0.5pt [3]. - WESCHI 4.95 07/08/26 was up 1.0pt this morning post - positive profit alert. HYUELEs were unchanged this morning as SK Hynix 2Q25 EBITDA rose 47% yoy to KRW12.7tn (cUSD9.1bn) [3]. Macro News Recap - On Wednesday, S&P (+0.78%), Dow (+1.14%), and Nasdaq (+0.61%) were higher. Trump said countries will face tariffs ranging from 15% to 50% ahead of an 1 Aug '25 deadline. The US may impose a 15% tariff on EU goods. UST yield was higher on Wednesday, with 2/5/10/30 - year yields at 3.88%/3.94%/4.40%/4.95% [7]. Desk Analyst Comments - West China Cement (WESCHI) expects the profit attributable to owners to increase 80 - 100% yoy to RMB696 - 774mn in 1H25, driven by overseas cement revenue, mainland China cement sales, property sales profit, and reversal of impairment losses [8]. - WESCHI plans to use proceeds from non - core asset sales to partly repay its WESCHI 4.95 07/08/26 due in Jul '26. The company also plans to sell other assets and offshore projects for bond repayment [9]. - Despite potential recovery in the Chinese cement market, caution remains regarding WESCHI's ability to remit cash from African operations. The full and timely repayment of the bond is uncertain. The report maintains a neutral rating on WESCHI 4.95 07/08/26 and prefers BTSDF 9.125 07/24/28 and EHICARs in the China HY space [10]. News and Market Color - Regarding onshore primary issuances, 123 credit bonds were issued yesterday with an amount of RMB119bn. Month - to - date, 1,592 credit bonds were issued with a total amount of RMB1,699bn, a 16.6% yoy increase [14]. - Adani Ports is in the race to set up a logistics park in north India. San Miguel buys a 3.8% stake in First Pacific - owned Meralco for PHP3.9bn (cUSD68.4mn) [14]. - Fosun will early redeem USD178.857mn FOSUNI 5.95 10/19/25 at 101 on 22 Aug '25. China Hongqiao seeks a USD300mn - equivalent three - year loan [14]. - JD.com will create a virtual restaurant chain. Media reported Lai Sun Development has been seeking an HKD3.5bn loan refinancing deal, but about half of the lenders have yet to commit [14]. - Li & Fung says no covenant restriction on perp refi, and the final plan depends on EBITDA. Rakuten sells JPY bonds for JPY30bn (cUSD204mn) for 5G projects [14]. - Sands China 2Q25 adjusted property EBITDA climbs 0.9% yoy to USD566mn. Viceroy alleges Vedanta's promoters siphon margins from Hindustan Zinc [14]. Top Performers and Underperformers | Top Performers | Price | Change | Top Underperformers | Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LIFUNG 5 1/4 PERP | 51.4 | 3.1 | ROADKG 5 1/8 01/26/30 | 22.8 | - 3.6 | | NSANY 5 1/4 07/17/29 | 100.9 | 1.1 | ROADKG 6.7 03/30/28 | 26.5 | - 1.7 | | NWG 7.3 PERP | 102.3 | 0.8 | ROADKG 6 03/04/29 | 25.8 | - 1.7 | | MONMIN 8.44 04/03/30 | 97.4 | 0.7 | GRNLGR 5 7/8 07/03/30 | 21.9 | - 0.9 | | LASUDE 5 07/28/26 | 52.0 | 0.7 | ROADKG 5.2 07/12/29 | 25.9 | - 0.6 | [5]
招银国际每日投资策略-20250724
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2025-07-24 02:15
Company Analysis - Bilibili (BILI US) is expected to achieve a total revenue of RMB 7.38 billion in Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 20% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 5% [2] - Adjusted net profit is projected to increase by 36% quarter-on-quarter to RMB 493 million, aligning with consensus expectations [2] - The strong performance in advertising and mobile gaming is supported by a well-established commercial infrastructure, contributing to the improvement in profit margins [2] - The FY25 total revenue forecast has been slightly adjusted downwards by 1% due to a more conservative outlook for value-added services in the second half of 2025, considering intense industry competition [2] - Despite the downward adjustment, the company’s profit growth outlook remains positive due to enhanced commercialization capabilities and operational leverage [2] - The target price for Bilibili has been raised to USD 28.8 from USD 26.5, maintaining a "Buy" rating [2] Market Overview - Global market sentiment has improved due to agreements between the US and Japan, and nearing agreements between the US and Europe, which has positively impacted Hong Kong stocks [3] - The Hong Kong stock market saw a continuation of upward trends, led by sectors such as information technology, consumer discretionary, and financials, while industrials and utilities declined [3] - A shift in capital from new consumption to the internet sector was noted, with southbound funds recording a net sell of HKD 1.32 billion [3] - In the A-share market, there was a pullback after reaching highs, with declines in sectors like building materials, defense, and machinery, while non-bank financials, beauty care, and home appliances saw gains [3] - Investors are closely monitoring the progress of China's anti-involution policies, with expectations that this round of capacity reduction may affect a broader range of industries, including steel, coal, building materials, photovoltaic, new energy equipment, lithium batteries, and pig farming [3]
固定收益部市场日报-20250723
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2025-07-23 07:33
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The report provides a daily update on the fixed - income market, including price changes of various bonds, new issue mandates, and macro - news. It also analyzes the proposed bond issuance of China Mengniu Dairy [1][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading Desk Comments - Chinese IGs like BABA/JD/SINOPE 48 - 57s were 0.5 - 1.9pts higher (1 - 15bps tighter). HSBC/STANLN Float 30 - 31s in financials closed 2 - 3bps tighter. SHIKON/NSINTW/CATLIF 33 - 35s in insurance widened 1 - 5bps. S&P assigned Fubon Life A - rating with stable outlook. NIPLIF/MYLIFE 55s and FUKOKU Perp were up 0.1pt. SOCGEN 6.75/LLOYDS 6.413 Perps in AT1s were 0.3 - 0.6pt lower, while INTNED 3.875/HSBC 7.05 Perp were up 0.1 - 0.2pt. BNKEA/NANYAN 34s in HK were unchanged to 2bps wider. HYSAN 7.2 Perp was up 0.5pt, NWDEVL Perps were 0.2 - 0.7pt lower. GRNCH 28/CHIOLI 42 - 43s in Chinese properties were 0.4 - 0.6pt higher, ROADKG 28 - 30s/Perps were unchanged to 0.7pt lower. WESCHI 26/HONGQI 28 were 0.7 - 1.0pt higher. VEDLN 28 - 33s in SE Asia were up 0.2 - 0.5pt, and MONMIN 30 was up 0.8pt [1]. - In CNH space, CHMEDA announced new issue mandates for 5yr and 10yr CNH bonds. Higher - yielding CNH LGFVs like LYGYIH 7.5 27s/SDGAOC 6.9 27s were sought after, and onshore AAA - guaranteed CNH LGFVs like QINLID 5.9 28s/HSIVEH 6.5 28s continued to compress. HAOHUA 28 - 30s tightened 1 - 2bps, MEITUA 30 widened 3bps, DAESEC 27 - 29s widened 1 - 2bps, and LASUDE 26 was up 0.5pt [2][3]. - LIFUNG announced a new issue mandate for a 3.5yr USD bond, and launched a tender offer for LIFUNG 5.25 Perp up to USD50mn at USD55. Pricing of new bonds is expected on 28 Jul'25, and the tender - offer expiration date is on 31 Jul'25. LIFUNG 5.25 Perp was unchanged [3]. - In USD LGFVs, CPDEV 28 was up 0.1pt. Higher - yielding USD names like HBTUID 7.5 26s/XHCTID 7 27s/FZSZJJ 7 28s tightened around 10bps. In SOE perps, CHPWCN Perp was up 0.1pt, SPICPD Perp was down 0.1pt [4]. Last Trading Day's Top Movers | Top Performers | Price | Change | Top Underperformers | Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | JD 4 1/8 01/14/50 | 79.7 | 1.9 | ROADKG 5.9 09/05/28 | 27.5 | - 0.7 | | TSIVMG 1.55 12/17/29 | 71.0 | 1.2 | NWDEVL 10.131 PERP | 35.0 | - 0.7 | | WESCHI 4.95 07/08/26 | 90.4 | 1.0 | SOCGEN 6 3/4 PERP | 98.6 | - 0.6 | | MONMIN 8.44 04/03/30 | 96.7 | 0.8 | ROADKG 6.7 03/30/28 | 28.3 | - 0.6 | | HONGQI 7.05 01/10/28 | 102.8 | 0.7 | ROADKG 6 03/04/29 | 27.5 | - 0.5 | [5] Macro News Recap - On Tuesday, S&P was up 0.06%, Dow was up 0.40%, and Nasdaq was down 0.39%. Trump reached a deal with Japan to set the tariff rate at 15%. US Treasury Secretary will meet China next week to discuss an extension of the 12 Aug'25 tariff deadline on Chinese imports. UST yield was lower, with 2/5/10/30 yield at 3.83%/3.88%/4.35%/4.90% [7]. Desk Analyst Comments - China Mengniu Dairy proposes to issue 5yr and 10yr CNH senior bonds (S&P: BBB+). Considering peers' bonds and adjusting for new - issue premium and credit - rating differential, the FV of new CNH CHMEDA 30 is estimated to be 2.25% vs. IPT of 2.55%, and the FV of new CNH CHMEDA 35 is estimated to be 2.55% vs. IPT of 2.85%. Proceeds will be used for debt refinancing [8]. Mengniu Analysis - Mengniu is a leading Chinese dairy company, ranked in the top 10 globally. It has end - to - end capabilities across the value chain and a traceable digital platform. In FY24, it generated RMB88.7bn revenue, with liquid milk accounting for 82.4%. Gross profit margin rose to 39.6% in FY24, and operating margin improved to 8.2% [11]. - As of Dec'24, Mengniu had a cash balance of RMB32.9bn, total debt of RMB34.6bn (mainly bank loans), and cRMB86bn available credit lines with RMB66.4bn undrawn. Total debt/EBITDA and net debt/EBITDA were 8.0x and 0.4x, and interest - coverage ratio was 3.0x. It has some outstanding bonds, and its liquidity profile is considered manageable [12]. Offshore Asia New Issues - No new offshore Asia issues were priced today [13]. - Pipeline issues include Guotai Junan International Holdings (USD, 3yr, SOFR + 115, -/BBB+/-) and Jiaozuo State - owned Capital Operation (Holding) Group (USD, 3yr, 6.5%, unrated) [14]. News and Market Color - There were 139 credit bonds issued yesterday in onshore primary issuances, amounting to RMB205bn. Month - to - date, 1,473 credit bonds were issued, raising RMB1,582bn, a 19.7% yoy increase. China property loans reached a two - year high. Del Monte seeks approval to sell business by end - September with a USD575mn stalking - horse bid. Foshan R&F Properties auctions 387 units. JD and Meituan invest in humanoid robot startups. Guangzhou Kaisa Center will be auctioned. Fitch assigned BB rating to Li & Fung with stable outlook. Road King requests bond - holders to disclose identities and holdings by 1 Aug'25 4pm CET [16].
招银国际每日投资策略-20250723
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2025-07-23 02:49
Industry Insights - The Chinese equipment manufacturing industry is expected to benefit significantly from the rural road upgrade and renovation, which could create a market worth trillions of yuan [2][4]. - The newly implemented Rural Road Regulations emphasize improving road network quality and promoting integrated urban-rural transportation development [2]. Market Potential - As of the end of 2024, China's rural road total mileage is projected to be 4.64 million kilometers, accounting for approximately 85% of the national road total [4]. - It is estimated that 9% of rural roads (around 410,000 kilometers) may require upgrades over the next decade, with upgrade costs ranging from 30 million to 50 million yuan per kilometer, leading to potential annual expenditures of 1.2 trillion to 2 trillion yuan [4]. Beneficiaries - Companies such as SANY Heavy Industry, Zoomlion Heavy Industry, Hengli Hydraulic, Weichai Power, and China National Heavy Duty Truck are expected to benefit from the rural road upgrades, acting as catalysts for the engineering machinery and heavy truck sectors [5].
固定收益部市场日报-20250722
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2025-07-22 12:33
Report Industry Investment Rating - Maintain a buy recommendation on CPDEVs [3][9] Core View - The report provides a daily update on the fixed - income market, including price changes of various bonds, macro - news, new issuance information, and company - specific news [1][6][16] Trading Desk Comments - Yesterday, long - end Chinese IGs like TENCNT/BABA 50 - 57s were 0.5 - 0.7pt higher (unchanged to 5bps tighter), while JD 50 was 0.8pt lower (12bps wider) [1] - In insurance, SHIKON 35 tightened another 5bps (0.6pt higher) after tightening 20bps last week. CATLIF/NSINTW 34s were unchanged to 2bps tighter [1] - NIPILF 51/MYLIFE 55 were up 0.1pt, ASAMLI/SUMILF Perps were down 0.1 - 0.2pt. In AT1s, BACR 9.675/HSBC 7.05/UBS 6.85 Perps were up 0.1 - 0.3pt [1] - In HK, HYSAN 4.85 Perp was up 0.6pt. NWDEVL 28 - 31s/Perps were 0.7pt lower to 0.3pt higher. MTRC Perps were 0.1 - 0.2pt higher [1] - In Chinese properties, ROADKG 28 - 30s were 0.1 - 0.4pt lower, ROADKG Perps closed unchanged. LNGFOR 28/DALWAN 26 were down 0.3 - 0.5pt. Outside properties, WESCHI 26 was up 0.9pt [1] - In SE Asia, MEDCIJ 30 was up 0.6pt. Elsewhere, MONMIN 30 was up 1.0pt [1] - In CNH space, the new SWIPRO 35 was 0.1pt higher with yield tightening towards 3%. In LGFVs, CPDEV 26 was down 0.2pt, CPDEV 29 was up 0.2pt [2] - There were two - way interests on USD names like CHDOHU 7.6 28s/KNMIDI 8.5 26s and CNH names like ZCHTCD 6.7 28s/QHURGR 7.8 26s. In SOE perps, AVIILC Perp was up 0.2pt, CHPWCN Perp was down 0.2pt [2] Morning Updates (22 Jul 2025) - SHIKON 35 widened 10bps and NSINTW 34 widened 5bps. NACF/SHINFN 29 - 30s widened 1 - 2bps. HYSAN 4.85/FAEACO 12.814 Perps were down 0.3 - 0.4pt. WESCHI 26 was up another 0.5pt [3] - USD90.4mn of CPDEV 4.65 01/19/26 was validly tendered at expiration, meeting adjourned to 5 Aug'25. CPDEV 26 was 0.1pt higher this morning [3] - VEDLN: Hindustan Zinc 1QFY25 results beat estimates on record output and silver gains, VEDLNs were unchanged this morning [3] Top Performers and Underperformers | Top Performers | Price | Change | Top Underperformers | Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FWDGHD 6.675 PERP | 99.5 | 1.2 | GRNLGR 5 7/8 07/03/30 | 22.7 | - 4.4 | | RILIN 3 5/8 01/12/52 | 68.9 | 1.0 | JD 4 1/8 01/14/50 | 77.8 | - 0.8 | | MONMIN 8.44 04/03/30 | 95.9 | 1.0 | NWDEVL 4 1/2 05/19/30 | 48.6 | - 0.7 | | WESCHI 4.95 07/08/26 | 89.4 | 0.9 | LNGFOR 4 1/2 01/16/28 | 89.9 | - 0.5 | | CCAMCL 5 02/08/48 | 87.0 | 0.8 | NWDEVL 3 3/4 01/14/31 | 47.3 | - 0.5 | [4] Macro News Recap - On Monday, S&P (+0.14%), Dow (-0.04%) and Nasdaq (+0.38%) were mixed. The S&P 500 Index finished at 6305.6, its highest close ever [6] - UST yield was lower on Monday, with 2/5/10/30 - year yields at 3.85%/3.91%/4.38%/4.94% [6] Desk Analyst Comments on CPDEV - Central Plaza Development adjourned the meeting on CPDEV 4.65 01/19/26 to 5 Aug'25 due to lack of quorum. As of expiration, USD90.42mn of the bond was validly tendered [7] - Voting deadline for consent solicitation extended to 31 Jul'25. If approved, CPDEV can redeem all CPDEV 26 outstanding at par with 5 - business - day notice [8] - Maintain buy on CPDEVs due to Beijing SASAC's ownership, CPDEV's strategic importance, and good access to on - shore funding, and proactive management of offshore maturity profile [9] Offshore Asia New Issues - No new offshore Asia issues were priced today [14] - There are no new offshore Asia issues in the pipeline today [15] News and Market Color - Yesterday, 89 credit bonds were issued onshore with an amount of RMB170bn. Month - to - date, 1,337 credit bonds were issued, raising RMB1,409bn, a 12.8% yoy increase [16] - Land sales in China's smaller cities fell to the lowest level in over a decade [16] - Indonesian coal exports to China fell 12% yoy in 1H25 due to falling prices [16] - Fitch changed Continuum Green Energy's outlook to stable from positive and affirmed its B+ rating [16] - CTF Services issued HKD850mn CTFSHK 2.8 01/18/27 (CB) and repurchased HKD566mn CTFSHK 4 07/22/25 (CB), with the remaining HKD74mn converted into shares [16] - China Water Affairs Group and its top shareholder offered to buy the remaining stake in wastewater firm Kangda [16] - EQT and Brookfield are in active negotiations to acquire Gland Pharma from Fosun Group [16] - S&P assigned Fubon Life an A - rating with a stable outlook [16] - Vale Indonesia plans to raise USD1 - 1.2bn in 2026 - 27 for mine and smelter projects [16] - Road King bondholders were advised to reject the revised consent solicitation offer [16] - Sands China's new incentives on table - side bets could boost market share [21] - SoftBank - OpenAI US venture scaled back near - term goals due to disputes [21] - Hindustan Zinc 1Q25 results beat estimates on record output and silver gains [21]
招银国际每日投资策略-20250722
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2025-07-22 05:31
Industry Insights - The Yarlung Tsangpo River Hydropower Station has officially commenced construction with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion RMB, which is expected to benefit the equipment manufacturing industry significantly [2] - The estimated annual procurement of construction machinery for the project is around 24 billion RMB, accounting for 2-3% of China's annual construction machinery output value, which is estimated to be around 900 billion RMB [2] - The demand for construction machinery is anticipated to be higher than the 2-3% estimate during the early stages of the project cycle [2] Company Specifics - Companies expected to benefit from the project include SANY Heavy Industry (600031 CH), Hengli Hydraulic (601100 CH), and Zoomlion Heavy Industry (1157 HK / 000157 CH), all rated as "Buy" [4] - Power engineering contractors such as China Power Construction (601669 CH) and China Energy Engineering (3996 HK / 601868 CH) are also expected to gain from the project [4] - In the power equipment sector, manufacturers like Dongfang Electric (1072 HK / 600875 CH) and Harbin Electric (1133 HK) are projected to see significant benefits [4] - Regional cement companies, particularly Tibet Tianlu (600326 CH) and Huaxin Cement (6655 HK / 600801 CH), are likely to benefit from increased regional demand [4]
招银国际每日投资策略-20250718
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2025-07-18 03:24
Company Analysis - Xtep (1368 HK) reported a slightly weaker performance in Q2 2025, but maintained its guidance for FY25, expecting overall sales growth and a net profit increase of over 10% [2][4] - The main brand of Xtep is projected to achieve mid-single-digit growth, while Saucony is expected to exceed 30% growth [2][4] - The management remains confident in achieving the annual guidance, supported by strong performance in the running category, which saw over 30% growth in professional products [4][5] Market Overview - The Chinese stock market showed mixed results, with healthcare, consumer staples, and utilities leading, while materials, energy, and financials lagged [3] - The report anticipates a volatile phase for the Chinese stock market in Q3, with weakening fundamentals in consumption and profits, but continued liquidity may lead to structural gains [3] - The US stock market saw gains led by financials, technology, and consumer staples, with TSMC's ADR hitting new highs due to strong AI chip demand [3] Retail Performance - Xtep's retail sales growth in Q2 2025 was slightly below expectations at low single digits, attributed to increased competition and weak e-commerce growth [5][6] - The company reported a healthy inventory turnover ratio of 4-4.5 months, indicating strong inventory management [6] - Retail sales growth improved in July, driven by summer demand and promotional activities, with e-commerce performance particularly strong [6] Strategic Initiatives - Xtep is progressing with its DTC (Direct-to-Consumer) transformation, planning to repurchase 100-200 stores in Q4 and 300-400 stores in FY26, with capital expenditure of approximately 400 million RMB [6] - The company is also upgrading its product and membership management systems to enhance DTC operational efficiency [6] Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xtep with a target price of HKD 7.20, based on a 14x FY25 forecast P/E ratio, which is attractive compared to the historical average of 15x [5][6]