Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - Maintain buy on FAEACO 12.814 Perp due to its decent risk - return profile, larger cushion against the covenanted adj. net gearing ratio, and expected cash inflow from project deliveries in Australia and the UK [2] - Maintain buy on MEITUA 3.05 10/28/30 and MEITUA 0 04/27/28 (CB) as Meituan's overall credit profile remains robust with a strong net cash position, despite near - term headwinds [9] Summary by Related Catalogs Trading Desk Comments - Last Friday, there was small better buying on JP/AU financial names and TW lifers; balanced two - way flows on Chinese AMCs 2 - 5yr notes which closed 1 - 2bps tighter; MEITUAs were unchanged to 3bps wider [2] - In FRN space, PBs were buying Chinese banks, leasing, and SEA names, while AM flippers were taking profit; FAEACO 12.814 Perp dropped 5.6pts; LASUDE 26 increased 0.5pt; CWAHK 26 - 30 edged 0.1 - 0.5pt firmer [2] - In Chinese properties, VNKRLE 27 - 29 lowered 0.8 - 1.3pts; LNGFOR 29 was 1.7pts lower; ROADKG 28 edged 0.6 - 0.9pt higher; AMs were buying ZHHFGR and selling CPDEV [2] - Yankee AT1s were 0.1pt firmer, Japanese AT1s and insurance subs were largely stable, ACPM 5 1/8 Perp was 0.6pt higher; in SE Asia, some bonds were unchanged to 0.5pt higher [2] - This morning, BBLTB senior and JP financials tightened 1 - 2bps; VNKRLE 27 - 29 recovered 0.5 - 1.2pts; some bonds were 0.6 - 1.1pts higher, while others were 0.7 - 1.0pt lower [4] - MEITUAs were unchanged to 3bps wider post 3Q25 results announcement last Friday and unchanged this morning; IDASALs were unchanged this morning [4] Macro News Recap - Last Friday, S&P (+0.54%), Dow (+0.61%), and Nasdaq (+0.65%) were higher; UST yield was higher, with 2/5/10/30 year yield at 3.47%/3.59%/4.02%/4.67% [7] Desk Analyst Comments on Meituan - Meituan's 3Q25 adj. EBITDA dropped to negative RMB14.8bn due to the price war in China's food delivery market, with intense competition weighing on profitability [8] - The aggressive price war has eroded sector - wide margins, and the pressure is expected to persist until the competitive landscape becomes more rational, possibly through regulatory intervention [8] - Meituan's overall credit profile remains robust with a net cash position of RMB90.0bn as of Sep'25, which should cushion near - term earnings impact; near - term pressure on MEITUAs is expected, but further volatility presents better entry opportunities [9] Meituan's Financial Performance - Meituan's 3Q25 total revenue increased 2% yoy to RMB95.5bn, with core local commerce segment revenue decreasing 2.8% yoy to RMB67.4bn and turning into an operating loss of RMB14.1bn; new initiative segment revenue rose 15.9% yoy to RMB28.0bn, but segment loss increased 24.5% yoy to RMB1.3bn [12] - In 3Q25, selling and marketing expenses increased 90.1% yoy to RMB34.3bn, and R&D expenses increased 31.0% to RMB6.9bn; Meituan reported an operating loss of RMB19.7bn and negative adj. EBITDA of RMB14.8bn [13] - Meituan expects losses in the core local commerce segment and at the consolidated level to continue in 4Q25; the operating loss in the new initiative segment is expected to widen in 4Q25 for overseas expansion [13] - Meituan's liquidity position remained solid with a net cash position of RMB90.0bn as of Sep'25, down from RMB106.7bn as of Dec'24, and it had an average net cash position of RMB70.6bn in the past five years [14] Offshore Asia New Issues - No offshore Asia new issues were priced today [17] - Agricultural Bank of China Limited Tokyo Branch has a pipeline issue of 3 - year tenor with a coupon of SOFR + 100 and an issue rating of A1/-/- [18] News and Market Color - Last Friday, 70 credit bonds were issued onshore with an amount of RMB59bn; in Nov'25, 2,133 credit bonds were issued with a total amount of RMB2,286bn, a 17.8% yoy increase [22] - China Jinmao pledged a Shanghai property asset valued at RMB4.8bn as collateral for RMB9.9bn of syndicated loans [22] - China Water Affairs 1HFY26 EBITDA dropped 18.6% yoy to HKD2.2bn [22] - eHi Car 3Q25 fleet utilization rate rose 4.9 pct pt to 72.3% [22] - Seazen issued RMB616mn ABS backed by a Shanghai shopping mall [22] - HD Hyundai Heavy and its partner failed to win Poland's KRW8tn submarine project [22] - Mineral Industri Indonesia repurchased USD95.8mn of IDASAL 6.53 11/15/28 [22] - Melco Resorts Finance 9M25 operating revenue was up 14% yoy, and Studio City 9M25 operating revenue was up 10% yoy [22] - A Hong Kong tycoon seeks to sell some Rosewood Hotels [22] - Vedanta Resources is looking to raise USD600mn bank loan for refinance and secure INR20bn via INR - denominated NCDs at its subsidiary [22] - Vanke provided its entire stake in its property management arm as loan collateral to its controlling shareholder [22]

2025 年 12 月 1 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 公司点评 全球市场观察 公司点评 1 上周五中国股市涨跌互现。港股下跌，医疗保健、能源与地产建筑领跌，原 材料、可选消费与信息科技领涨，南向资金净买入 27.3 亿港币，阿里巴巴、 泡泡玛特与小米集团净买入居前，中芯国际、紫金矿业与华虹半导体净卖出 最多。A 股上涨，工贸综合、可选消费零售与国防军工涨幅居前，银行、煤 炭与医药生物跌幅最大。国债收益率走平，人民币兑美元走强。 中国 11 月制造业 PMI 环比回升至 49.2，其中出口指数回升和高新技术制造 业 PMI 连续 10个月扩张是亮点，产成品库存指数再度下降表明需求疲弱推动 企业去库存。非制造业 PMI 小幅回落。 东京核心通胀超预期支持日本央行进一步加息。11 月东京核心 CPI 同比上涨 2.8%超出市场预期，电力价格上涨速度加快，抵消食品价格涨幅下降的影响。 近期日元走弱可能加剧日本通胀压力，增加了 12月加息概率。日本批准 18.3 万亿日元补充预算，发债计划中短债占比显著上升，因长债收益率持续上升。 德国 11 月 CPI 同比上涨 2.3%低于预期 ...

Global Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,946, with a slight increase of 0.07% for the day and a year-to-date increase of 29.34% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.29% to close at 3,875, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 15.62% [1] - The US markets showed no change, with the Dow Jones at 47,427 and the S&P 500 at 6,813, marking year-to-date increases of 11.48% and 15.83% respectively [1] - European markets remained stable, with the DAX and CAC showing minor increases of 0.18% and 0.04% respectively [1] Sector Performance in Hong Kong - The Hang Seng Financial Index increased by 0.59%, with a significant year-to-date rise of 36.57% [2] - The Hang Seng Industrial Index decreased by 0.23%, but still shows a year-to-date increase of 26.78% [2] - The Hang Seng Real Estate Index saw a minor decline of 0.05%, with a year-to-date increase of 25.42% [2] - The Hang Seng Utilities Index increased by 0.29%, with a year-to-date rise of 5.79% [2] Chinese Market Dynamics - The Chinese stock market exhibited mixed results, with industrial profits declining by 5.5% year-on-year in October [3] - The Double Eleven shopping festival reported sales of 1.7 trillion RMB, surpassing last year's 1.44 trillion RMB, although the extended duration affected comparability [3] - The smartphone sales during the festival grew by 3% year-on-year, with Apple holding a 26% market share, while excluding Apple, sales actually declined by 5% [3] - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of 1.33 billion HKD, with notable net purchases in Alibaba, Pop Mart, and Meituan, while Xiaomi and Tencent experienced net sell-offs [3] Economic and Policy Insights - The Chinese government is focusing on regulating price competition and addressing issues of "involution" in various sectors [3] - The State Council highlighted emerging fields such as outer space, the internet, and artificial intelligence as new strategic focuses for development [3] - Recent research indicates that China's open-source AI models accounted for 17% of global downloads, surpassing the US's 15.8% [3] - Alibaba is entering the AI hardware market with its Quark AI glasses, priced starting at 1,899 RMB, integrating deep ecosystem services [3] International Market Reactions - European markets remained flat with low trading volumes, while the German stock exchange reported a significant rise in Allfunds shares following acquisition talks [3] - The UK bond yields slightly increased, and the pound experienced fluctuations against the dollar [3] - The US stock market was closed, with futures showing slight increases, while the dollar index hit a weekly low [3] - Oil prices fluctuated due to geopolitical developments, with OPEC+ maintaining its production pause, which supported oil prices [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the optical module industry, specifically for Zhongji Xuchuang (300308 CH) with a target price of 591.00 RMB [2][27]. Core Insights - The optical module industry is expected to perform strongly in 2025, driven by high AI business proportions among suppliers, with significant revenue growth and profit margin expansion anticipated [2][4]. - Major cloud providers in the U.S. are projected to increase their capital expenditures significantly, reaching $367 billion in 2025, which will benefit optical module suppliers [5][11]. - The demand for 1.6T optical modules is expected to rise, contributing to the overall growth of the industry [21][24]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The optical module sector is highlighted as a preferred segment, with leading companies like Coherent, Zhongji Xuchuang, and Xinyi Sheng showing substantial revenue growth in 2025 [4][14]. - Revenue growth rates for these companies in the first three quarters of 2025 are projected at 19%, 44%, and 221% respectively [4][14]. Capital Expenditure Trends - The four major U.S. cloud providers (Google, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon) are expected to spend $2.3 billion in 2024, a 55% increase year-over-year, and further increase to $3.67 billion in 2025 [3][5]. - Forecasts indicate a continued increase in capital expenditures, with a projected 35% growth to $495 billion in 2026 [6][11]. Supply Chain Dynamics - The supply of key components, particularly EML chips, is under pressure, with Lumentum indicating that demand significantly exceeds supply [22][24]. - The industry is actively expanding production capacity, with Lumentum planning a 40% increase in capacity [22][23]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the optical module industry will continue to thrive, with a focus on high-value solutions and the transition to 1.6T products [21][27]. - The expected shipment volumes for 800G and 1.6T optical modules in 2026 are projected to reach 49 million and 22 million units respectively, despite a significant supply-demand gap [24][27].

Market Overview - Global markets showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 25,928, up 0.13% year-to-date increase of 29.25% [1] - The US markets continued to rise, with the Dow Jones up 0.67% and the S&P 500 up 0.69%, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 11.48% and 15.83% respectively [1] - European markets also saw gains, driven by improved fiscal outlooks in the UK, with the DAX up 1.11% and the CAC up 0.88% [1] Sector Performance - In the Hong Kong market, healthcare, conglomerates, and telecommunications sectors led the gains, while materials, information technology, and energy sectors faced declines [3] - The semiconductor optical module industry is expected to perform strongly, driven by AI infrastructure investments, with significant revenue growth anticipated through 2026 [4][5] Company Insights - Tongcheng Travel reported a robust 3Q25 performance with total revenue reaching 5.5 billion RMB, a 10.4% year-on-year increase, and adjusted net profit of 1.06 billion RMB, up 16.5% [5] - Ideal Auto's 3Q25 results showed a net loss of 625 million RMB, primarily due to a one-time recall cost, but the gross margin remained high at approximately 20.4% [6][7] - The report suggests that Ideal Auto may face challenges in sales and gross margins in the upcoming quarters, leading to a downgrade in rating from "Buy" to "Hold" [7] Investment Recommendations - The semiconductor optical module sector is highlighted as a key investment opportunity, with a buy rating on Zhongji Xuchuang, targeting a price of 591 RMB [4] - Tongcheng Travel is also rated as a buy, with a target price adjustment to 25.4 HKD, reflecting a positive outlook on its core OTA business [5]

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,895, up 2.67% for the day and 29.09% year-to-date [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 4.01% for the day and 25.60% year-to-date, indicating strong performance in the technology sector [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.92% for the day and 15.46% year-to-date, reflecting positive sentiment in the Chinese market [1] Sector Performance - The Hang Seng Financial Index increased by 1.89% for the day and 35.30% year-to-date, showing robust growth in the financial sector [2] - The Hang Seng Industrial Index rose by 3.24% for the day and 27.06% year-to-date, indicating strong performance in industrial stocks [2] - The Hang Seng Real Estate Index increased by 2.00% for the day and 24.95% year-to-date, suggesting recovery in the real estate market [2] Company Insights - Alibaba's 3Q revenue grew by 4.8% year-on-year, with cloud business revenue surging by 34%, indicating strong demand [3] - Alibaba's management expects a significant reduction in losses from its instant retail business in 3QFY26, aligning with market expectations [5] - NIO's 3Q25 gross margin exceeded expectations, but the company lowered its 4Q25 sales guidance to 120,000-125,000 units, which is below market expectations [5][7] Economic Indicators - The US dollar index is declining, with expectations for a rate cut in December due to weakening economic data [6] - The US PPI rose by 0.3% in September, driven by energy price rebounds, but core PPI growth was only 0.1%, below expectations [6] - Japan's labor market remains tight, with a job-to-applicant ratio exceeding 1.8 and an unemployment rate at a low of 2.5%, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures [3]

2025 年 11 月 25 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 公司点评 全球市场观察 公司点评 百胜中国（9987 HK/ YUMC US，买入，目标价：457.48港元/ 58.56 美元） — 2025 年投资者日点评 尽管宏观环境严峻，但我们认为百胜中国韧性十足。根据我们的测算，肯德 基与必胜客在25年前10个月的同店销售恢复率（对比2019年）高达88%， 远优于行业平均的 70%。我们认为超额表现主要归功于公司坚持提供「优质 美味且物超所值」的产品。就公司指引（26–28 财年目标）而言，我们认为 主要的超预期来自必胜客（特别在门店扩张与餐厅层面营运利润率），而肯 德基的数据则略低于预期（主要在餐厅层面营运利润率）。此外，百胜中国 提高股息以及承诺自 27 财年起将 100%自由现金流用于回馈股东，我们对此 计划感到满意。 展望未来，百胜中国不仅将持续强化性价比，更会聚焦核心（如明星产品）、 开发市场空白、吸纳新客群并捕捉不同场合的新需求。在此之上，通过执行 敬请参阅尾页之免责声明 请到彭博 (搜索代码: RESP CMBR )或 http://www.cmbi.co ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to several companies in the pharmaceutical sector, indicating a potential upside of over 15% in the next 12 months [2][30]. Core Insights - The MSCI China Healthcare Index has increased by 62.8% from early 2025, outperforming the MSCI China Index by 32.2%. However, there has been a recent pullback of 8% in the healthcare sector since October [1]. - The report highlights a resurgence in the demand for domestic innovative drug research and development, driven by a recovery in capital market financing and an increase in overseas transactions for innovative drugs [1][3]. - Major multinational corporations (MNCs) are actively pursuing acquisitions in the pharmaceutical sector, with significant transactions indicating strong motivation to acquire quality assets [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of clinical advancements in authorized innovative drug pipelines overseas as key catalysts for the sector [3]. Summary by Sections Section: Investment Opportunities - The report recommends buying shares of companies such as 三生制药 (Sangfor), 固生堂 (Gushengtang), 药明合联 (WuXi AppTec), 巨子生物 (Giant Biologics), 信达生物 (Innovent Biologics), and 中国生物制药 (China National Pharmaceutical Group) due to their attractive valuations and growth potential [2][3]. Section: Market Trends - The report notes that from January to October 2025, China's innovative drug overseas transaction amounts accounted for 38% of the global total, with upfront payments making up 50%, significantly higher than the figures from 2020 [3]. - The report also points out that the pressure on medical insurance revenue and expenditure remains, with a 4.6% year-on-year increase in income and a 1.7% decrease in expenditure from January to September 2025 [3]. Section: Clinical Development - The report highlights that Pfizer is set to initiate seven clinical trials related to its PD-1/VEGF drug candidate, which will cover over ten indications and innovative combination therapies by 2026 [3].

宏观点评 2025 年 11 月 24 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 | | 收市价 | | 升/跌（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生金融 | 46,658 | -2.12 | 32.79 | | 恒生工商业 | 13,846 | -2.59 | 23.07 | | 恒生地产 | 18,268 | -2.45 | 22.50 | | 恒生公用事业 | 37,405 | -0.91 | 4.88 | | 资料来源：彭博 | | | | 敬请参阅尾页之免责声明 请到彭博 (搜索代码: RESP CMBR )或 http://www.cmbi.com.hk 下载更多研究报告 1 中国股市大跌，港股医疗保健、原材料与可选消费领跌，电讯、综合与公用 事业跑赢，南向资金净买入 1.05 亿港元，腾讯、小米与阿里巴巴净买入居前， 华虹半导体、赣锋锂业与中芯国际净卖出最多。A 股工贸综合、有色金属与 化工跌幅居前，媒体娱乐、家电与食品饮料跌幅最小。国债收益率走平，人 民币兑美元小幅上涨。 日本批准 21.3 万亿日元经济刺 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The Chinese government is considering a stimulus package to revive the property market, which led to some recovery in Chinese property bonds [2]. - SJM's acquisition of the L'Arc Hotel and termination of the Ponte 16 acquisition could delay its de - leverage trajectory and may lead to negative rating action [7][8]. - Xiaomi's solid credit profiles and strong performance in the Smart EV segment support a buy recommendation on its 30 - 31s bonds [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections Trading Desk Comments - Yesterday, new BBLTB 35s widened 1bp, new BBLTB 30s tightened 1bp, new SMBCAC 35s tightened 2 - 3bps, and there were better selling flows on existing SMBCAC 28s/34s [2]. - Asia IG space had some recoveries (1 - 2bps tighter) in TW lifers and KR/TH/SG T2s, but better selling on JP corps and some bank papers [2]. - JP AT1s and insurance subs struggled, while SOFTBK 31 - 65s were up 0.9 - 1.4pts, Yankee AT1s bounced back 0.3 - 0.5pt, and NWDEVL complex rose 0.2 - 1.0pt [2]. - In Chinese properties, VNKRLE 27 - 29 recovered 0.5 - 0.8pt, LNGFOR 27 - 32 increased 0.2 - 0.3pt, and in SEA, VLLPM 27 - 29 dropped 0.8 - 2.4pts [2]. - In AU, INFRAB 14.5 28 lost 0.5pt, and in LGFV space, HFs bought higher - yielding issues and RMs sourced AAA - guaranteed papers [2]. Analyst Comments - SJMHOL: SJM is acquiring the L'Arc Hotel for HKD1.75bn and terminating the Ponte 16 acquisition. The pro - forma net debt/LTM EBITDA may increase to 7.3x from 6.8x as of Sep'25 [7][8]. - XIAOMI: In 3Q25, Xiaomi's revenue increased 22% yoy to RMB113.1bn, mainly driven by the Smart EV segment. Smartphones revenue declined 3.1% yoy, while Smart EV segment revenue rose 199% yoy and achieved a quarterly operating profit of RMB0.7bn [13][14][15]. Macro News Recap - On Thursday, S&P was down 1.56%, Dow was down 0.84%, and Nasdaq was down 2.15%. US initial jobless claims were +220k, lower than expected, and Sep'25 non - farm payroll was +119k, higher than expected [6]. - The US Sep'25 unemployment rate was 4.4%, higher than expected, and UST yields were lower on Thursday [6]. Offshore Asia New Issues - Priced: Agricultural Bank of China Limited, Singapore Branch issued USD300mn 3 - year bonds at SOFR + 43 with an issue rating of A1/-/- [21]. - Pipeline: First Abu Dhabi Bank is planning a PerpNC6 issuance with a coupon of 6.375 - 6.5% and an issue rating of Baa3/-/- [22]. Onshore Primary Issuances - Yesterday, 153 credit bonds were issued with an amount of RMB137bn. Month - to - date, 1,456 credit bonds were issued with a total amount of RMB1,561bn, a 34.3% yoy increase [25]. - There were also various corporate news such as China Great Wall's asset - backed special plan, IDASAL's possible investment, and others [25].