Macro Commentary - Global stock markets showed positive performance, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.89% and year-to-date growth of 32.72% [1] - The Chinese stock market experienced an increase, driven by a recovery in investor risk appetite, particularly in materials, consumer discretionary, and financial sectors [3] - The U.S. stock market continued to rise, led by consumer discretionary, information technology, and financial sectors, despite concerns over high valuations expressed by the Federal Reserve Chairman [3] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Financial Index increased by 1.98% year-to-date, while the Hang Seng Industrial Index rose by 1.91% [2] - The A-share market saw significant gains in non-bank financials, metals, and electrical equipment, while coal and consumer services sectors declined [3] Economic Outlook - The fourth quarter strategy suggests a balanced approach, favoring stocks, commodities, and non-USD currencies while being bearish on bonds and the dollar [4] - The U.S. economy is experiencing slight stagflation, with expectations of a steepening yield curve due to potential Federal Reserve interventions [4] - The report indicates a weak recovery in the Chinese economy, with potential improvements in deflationary pressures [4] Investment Strategy - Recommendations include an overweight allocation in currencies (20%), with specific allocations to USD (10.5%), EUR (4%), and GBP (2.5%), while underweighting JPY [4] - For bonds, a standard allocation of 22.5% is suggested, with an overweight in UK bonds (2%) and emerging market bonds (5%) [4] - The stock allocation is recommended at 30%, with a focus on European (4.3%), UK (2.5%), and Chinese stocks (3.5%), while underweighting U.S. (17%) and Japanese stocks (1%) [4] Sector Analysis - Defensive sectors such as telecommunications and utilities underperformed, while cyclical sectors led the gains [3] - The report highlights the ongoing AI technology revolution, which is stimulating corporate capital expenditure despite weak job growth in developed countries [3]

2025 年 9 月 29 日 招银国际环球市场 |宏观策略 | 大类资产配置 第四季度策略 Market Strategy - 更加均衡 更加均衡 第四季度看多股票、商品和非美货币，看空债券和美元，建议资产组合和区域 配置更加均衡。美国经济小幅滞涨，白宫对美联储干预和美联储降息令收益率 曲线陡峭化，利空美元与美债，利好股票与商品。欧元区经济好于预期，通胀 止跌走平，国债收益率回升。英国经济放缓，通胀居高，利率远期有下降空 间。日本经济放缓，通胀回落，但加息可能延续。中国经济弱复苏，通缩可能 改善，国债收益率回升。 资料来源：彭博，招银国际环球市场 0 10 20 30 40 50 美元货基 英镑货基 欧元货基 日元货基 人民币货基 全球投资级债 美国投资级债 美国高收益债 其他投资级债 新兴市场债 MSCI全球 MSCI美国 MSCI英国 MSCI欧元区 MSCI日本 MSCI中国 黄金 比特币 铜 原油 2025YTD收益(%) 商品 股票 债券 货基 图 1: 年初以来各大类资产收益(美元计价) 叶丙南, Ph.D (852) 3761 8967 yebingnan@cmbi.com.hk 刘泽晖 (8 ...

Market Overview - Global markets showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index down 1.35% and the S&P 500 up 0.59% year-to-date performance for the Hang Seng Index stands at 30.25% [1][2] - The Chinese stock market saw declines, particularly in the technology, healthcare, and consumer discretionary sectors, while essential consumer goods, energy, and financials experienced gains [3] Industry Insights - The Chinese pharmaceutical industry is witnessing a recovery in domestic innovation research and development demand, with the MSCI China Healthcare Index up 74.0% since early 2025, outperforming the MSCI China Index by 37.3% [4] - The demand for early-stage research is showing positive signs, supported by a resurgence in capital market financing and a favorable environment for biotech innovation [9] - The CXO industry is expected to see performance recovery in the second half of 2025 due to increased demand for early-stage research and development [4][9] Company Analysis - WuXi AppTec (药明康德) is maintaining a strong growth trajectory in its TIDES business, with plans to expand peptide production capacity significantly by the end of 2025 [8] - The company reported a 14.5% year-on-year increase in new orders for preclinical services in the first half of 2025, with a notable 19.9% increase from U.S. clients [9] - WuXi AppTec's management is confident in maintaining resilient profitability, with adjusted gross and net profit margins reaching historical highs of 44.5% and 30.4% respectively in the first half of 2025 [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for WuXi AppTec (603259 CH) and slightly raises the target price to RMB 118.79, reflecting positive signals from the recovery in global early-stage research demand [8][3]. Core Insights - The TIDES business continues to show strong momentum with rapid capacity expansion and a rich pipeline of projects. The company plans to expand its peptide capacity to over 100,000 L by the end of 2025, significantly up from 41,000 L by the end of 2024 [8]. - Early-stage research is showing signs of recovery, which is expected to drive growth in early-stage business revenue, accounting for about one-third of the company's total revenue [8]. - The company's refined operations are helping maintain resilient profitability amid macro uncertainties and global capacity expansion [8]. Financial Summary - For FY23A, the sales revenue is reported at RMB 40,341 million, with a year-on-year growth of 2.5%. The adjusted net profit is RMB 10,854 million, reflecting a 15.5% increase [2]. - The forecast for FY25E sales revenue is RMB 43,981 million, with a projected growth of 12.1%, and adjusted net profit is expected to reach RMB 12,296 million, a 16.2% increase [2][9]. - The adjusted earnings per share for FY25E is projected at RMB 4.17, with a corresponding adjusted P/E ratio of 24.7 [2][9]. Market Performance - The current market capitalization of WuXi AppTec is approximately RMB 296,944.9 million, with a 52-week price range of RMB 112.00 to RMB 47.60 [3][4]. - The stock has shown strong performance with a 56.7% absolute return over the past three months [5]. Shareholder Structure - Major shareholders include Li Ge and his concerted parties holding 24.0% and Hong Kong investors holding 20.1% [4].

2025 年 9 月 29 日 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 行业研究 中国医药 中国医药 - 预期中美创新合作将持续，国内创新研发需求回暖 MSCI 中国医疗指数 2025 年初至今累计上涨 74.0%，跑赢 MSCI 中国指数 37.3%。由于资本市场融资复苏、创新药出海交易规模上涨，国内创新药研发需 求出现回暖。我们注意到，创新药研发所需的实验猴的中标价格已经从 2024 年 中的约 8.5 万元回升至约 9 万元。叠加美国降息，CXO 行业有望在 2H25E 迎来 业绩修复。 估值表 | | | | | 市值 目标价 | 上行/ | P/E (x) | | P/B (x) | | ROE (%) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 公司名称 | 股份代码 | 评级 | (百万美元) | | | | (LC) 下行空间 FY25E FY26E FY25E FY26E FY25E FY26E | | | | | | 三生制药 | 1530 HK | 买入 | 9,091.4 | ...

Market Overview - The global stock markets showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.53% and the Hang Seng Technology Index increasing by 1.94%, reflecting a year-to-date gain of 42.77% [1][3] - The US stock markets experienced a decline, with the Dow Jones falling by 0.94% and the S&P 500 decreasing by 1.33%, while the Nasdaq dropped by 1.77% [1][3] Sector Performance - In the Hong Kong market, materials, information technology, and healthcare sectors led the gains, while consumer staples, real estate, and financial sectors lagged [3] - The A-share market saw gains in media, communication, and non-ferrous metals, while textiles, agriculture, and comprehensive sectors underperformed [3] Company Insights - Xiaomi Group launched its flagship Xiaomi 17 smartphone, priced at 4,499 RMB, which is competitive compared to the iPhone 17 priced at 5,999 RMB, highlighting Xiaomi's strategy to position itself against Apple [4] - The company aims to enhance its ecosystem with new IoT products and electric vehicle services, indicating a focus on high-end market segments [4] - Xiaomi's target price is set at 62.96 HKD, reflecting a 26.3 times expected P/E ratio for 2026, maintaining a "Buy" rating [5] Investment Recommendations - Geely Automobile is rated "Buy" with a target price of 25.00 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 37% [5] - Luckin Coffee is also rated "Buy" with a target price of 44.95 USD, suggesting a 19% upside [5] - Tencent and Alibaba are both rated "Buy," with target prices of 705.00 HKD and 158.80 USD respectively, indicating potential upsides of 9% and N/A [5]

2025 年 9 月 25 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 行业点评 全球市场观察 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 26,519 | -0.10 | 32.20 | | 恒生国企 | 9,443 | -0.31 | 29.54 | | 恒生科技 | 6,323 | 0.46 | 41.52 | | 上证综指 | 3,854 | 0.88 | 14.97 | | 深证综指 | 2,506 | 1.33 | 28.00 | | 深圳创业板 | 3,186 | 3.06 | 48.75 | | 美国道琼斯 | 46,121 | -0.42 | 8.41 | | 美国标普 500 | 6,638 | -0.40 | 12.86 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 22,498 | -0.59 | 16.50 | | 德国 DAX | 23,667 | 0.12 | 18.87 | | ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry is expected to perform better than the market benchmark over the next 12 months [26]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the ongoing growth and demand in the AI and cloud sectors in China, particularly highlighted during Alibaba's 2025 Cloud Conference, where the company announced significant infrastructure expansion and a focus on AI capabilities [1][4]. - Alibaba Cloud's revenue growth is expected to accelerate due to the release of seven new AI models, which enhance various capabilities and support the company's strategic goals [5][6]. - The report suggests a positive long-term investment outlook for the Chinese internet and software sectors, driven by advancements in AI and cloud infrastructure [1]. Summary by Sections AI Model Developments - Alibaba introduced seven new AI models at the Cloud Conference, including Qwen3-Max, which ranks third in the Chatbot Arena and demonstrates strong coding and agent tool capabilities [4][6]. - The Qwen3-Next model series is designed for scalability, reducing training costs by over 90% and improving long-text reasoning throughput by more than ten times [13]. - The Qwen3-Coder model has shown significant improvements in programming tasks, while the Qwen3-VL model excels in visual understanding and multimodal reasoning [15][16]. Infrastructure Enhancements - Alibaba Cloud's AI computing power has increased over five times in the past year, with storage capacity growing by over four times [16]. - The introduction of the Panjiu 128 super-node AI server supports various AI chips and enhances performance by 50% compared to traditional architectures [21]. - The new high-performance network HPN 8.0 supports efficient interconnection of up to 100,000 GPUs, significantly boosting storage network bandwidth [21]. Market Outlook - The report highlights structural opportunities in the Chinese internet software sector, with Alibaba's stock expected to see a potential upside of over 15% in the next 12 months [25]. - The overall market sentiment remains positive, with expectations of continued growth in AI and cloud services, positioning Alibaba and similar companies favorably for future investments [1][4].

Core Insights - The report highlights the performance of major global stock markets, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 26,159, down 0.70% for the day but up 30.40% year-to-date [1] - The report notes a significant net sell-off of HKD 4.069 billion in southbound funds, with major sell-offs in the Tracker Fund, Hang Seng China Enterprises, and Pop Mart, while Alibaba saw net buying [3] - The report emphasizes the strong growth potential in the Chinese perfume market, predicting a growth rate of 9-14% over the next 4-5 years, driven by increasing penetration rates and changing consumer behaviors [4] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Financial Index rose by 0.13% year-to-date, while the Hang Seng Industrial Index fell by 1.12% [2] - The report indicates that the A-share consumer services, retail, and software services sectors experienced significant declines, while banking, coal, and utilities saw gains [3] Company Analysis - The report covers Ying Tong Holdings, a pioneer in luxury fragrance management, which has a market share ranking third in China, with 81% of its revenue coming from fragrance business [4] - Ying Tong's multi-brand operation strategy allows it to maintain strong relationships with over 70 international brands, providing a one-stop solution for beauty brand entry into core channels [5] - Concerns regarding the potential loss of core brand operating rights and competition from domestic brands are deemed overstated, as most suppliers have long-term contracts with major brands [6] Investment Recommendations - The report initiates coverage on Ying Tong Holdings with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 3.49, corresponding to a 14.2x FY26E P/E ratio, reflecting a 30% valuation discount based on comparable peers [6]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on the company with a "Buy" rating [6][27]. Core Insights - The company is a pioneer in luxury fragrance management in China, having introduced high-end perfumes systematically since 1980. It operates through a brand authorization model, providing comprehensive services from market access to consumer education [6][10]. - The Chinese perfume market is projected to be the fastest-growing segment in the cosmetics industry, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9-14% over the next 4-5 years. The company is positioned as a key beneficiary of this growth, with 81% of its revenue derived from fragrance sales [6][10][15]. - The company has a strong market presence, ranking third in market share in China (including Hong Kong and Macau) with 9.3% [9][11]. Financial Overview - The company’s projected financials indicate a steady increase in sales revenue from RMB 1,864 million in FY24A to RMB 3,134 million in FY28E, reflecting a CAGR of 15% [6][8]. - Net profit is expected to grow from RMB 206.5 million in FY24A to RMB 370.3 million in FY28E, with a notable increase of 32% in FY26E [6][8]. - The target price is set at HKD 3.49, representing a potential upside of 72.8% from the current price of HKD 2.02 [2][6]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights the increasing penetration of perfumes in China, with per capita spending on perfumes significantly lower than in developed markets. In 2023, the per capita spending in China was RMB 16 compared to RMB 423 in the US [15][17]. - The growth in the perfume market is supported by rising consumer demand in lower-tier cities and a significant increase in male fragrance spending, which saw a 1151% year-on-year growth in 2023 [18][19]. Business Model and Strategy - The company operates a multi-brand strategy, managing over 70 international brands and providing a wide range of products across various price points, which enhances its negotiation power with distribution channels [22][25]. - The company has established a robust supply chain and distribution network, covering 400 cities and 7,800 sales terminals, which allows for precise matching of brands to sales channels [24][25]. Competitive Landscape - The company faces competition from both international luxury brands and emerging domestic brands. However, the report suggests that the threat from domestic brands is currently limited as they primarily serve to cultivate potential customers for high-end brands [27]. - The company has long-term contracts with key suppliers, reducing the risk of losing core brand operating rights, which is a concern among investors [27].