招银国际环球市场有限公司 焦点股份 2025年6月17日 招银国际焦点股份 | 招银国际焦点股份 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 市 | 值 | 平均日交易量 | 股 | 价 | 目标价 | 上/下 | 行 | 市盈率(倍) | 市净率(倍) | ROE (%) | 股息率 | 分析师 | 公司名称 | 股票代码 | 行 | 业 | 评 | 级 | (十亿美元) | (百万美元) | （当地货币)（当地货币) | 空 | 间 | FY24A | FY25E | FY24A | FY24A | FY24A | | | 长 | 仓 | 吉利汽车 | 买入 | 史迹/ ...

2025 年 6 月 17 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 宏观点评 全球市场观察 宏观点评 中国经济 - 复苏仍不平衡 5 月经济数据显示经济复苏仍不平衡，在耐用品以旧换新政策支撑下，社会 零售额显著超出市场预期，但房地产销量跌幅扩大，工业产出增速普遍放缓。 下半年，随着出口走弱和耐用品以旧换新政策效果减弱，经济可能面临阻力。 我们预计 GDP 增速将从 2025 年第一季度 5.4%放缓至第二季度 4.9%和下半 年 4.7%。如果中美能够初步达成贸易协议，中国可能聚焦经济再平衡，加大 财政扩张和消费提振力度，推进制造业去产能。（链接） | | 收市价 | | 升/跌（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生金融 | 42,969 | 0.93 | 44.08 | | 恒生工商业 | 13,448 | 0.55 | 45.64 | | 恒生地产 | 17,509 | 1.60 | -4.47 | | 恒生公用事业 | 36,534 | 0.10 | 11.13 | | 资料来源：彭博 | | | | 招银国际研究 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price raised to HKD 93, based on a 25x forecasted P/E for 2025 [1][7][8]. Core Insights - The company is viewed as a high-quality target in the semiconductor sector, with sustainable growth potential. The management's clear and sustainable growth strategy has left a strong impression [1][7]. - The report highlights three key areas of investor focus: downstream demand outlook, geopolitical risks, and the company's investment plans for upstream manufacturing resources [1][7]. - The company is expected to achieve revenue and profit growth of 20%-30% despite macroeconomic uncertainties, driven by the expansion of new product categories [7][8]. Financial Summary - Sales revenue is projected to grow from RMB 464 million in FY23A to RMB 1,172 million in FY27E, with a CAGR of approximately 25.6% [2][14]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 109.2 million in FY23A to RMB 342.1 million in FY27E, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [2][14]. - The gross margin is forecasted to stabilize around 53.9% from FY25E onwards, indicating consistent profitability [2][14]. Valuation Metrics - The company's current valuation stands at 19.3x P/E for 2025, with a PEG ratio of 0.77, which is considered attractive compared to the industry average of 66.1x [7][8][13]. - The target price of HKD 93 represents a potential upside of 27.4% from the current price of HKD 73 [3][7]. Market Performance - The company's stock has shown significant performance, with a 151.3% absolute return over the past six months [4]. - The stock's market capitalization is approximately HKD 1.314 billion, with a 52-week price range of HKD 73.00 to HKD 23.05 [3][4].

2025 年 6 月 16 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 宏观及公司点评 全球市场观察 宏观经济 中国经济-信贷疲弱需要进一步政策支持 中国信贷状况继续受政府融资驱动，而私人部门信贷需求依然疲弱。5 月社 会融资规模增速继续回升，因国债发行速度加快。但关税冲击通过信心渠道 拖累家庭购房、消费和企业资本支出，新增人民币贷款同比持续下降。 中国需要推出更多政策支持以重振私人经济复苏势头。我们预计 2025 年下半 年 LPR 将进一步下调 10 个基点，同时广义财政赤字可能温和增加。央行可 能保持充裕流动性，支持信贷增长，促进房地产企稳向好，以对冲关税冲击 的影响。如果中美能够达成贸易协议，那么中国可能聚焦经济再平衡，加大 财政扩张和消费提振力度，推进制造业去产能。（链接） 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 23,893 | -0.59 | 40.15 | | 恒生国企 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 272.90, reflecting a potential upside of 15.0% from the current price of RMB 237.28 [2][6]. Core Insights - The company is undergoing a digital and streamlined transformation, focusing on creating a comprehensive "equipment + IT + AI" and "equipment + consumables" solution across all departments [1]. - Key highlights include the establishment of a smart medical ecosystem based on IT and AI technologies, and the continuous expansion of business boundaries to support long-term growth [1][6]. - The report anticipates that the IT and AI business development cycle may take time to generate substantial revenue, but it will enhance product performance and competitiveness in the long run [6]. Financial Summary - Sales revenue is projected to grow from RMB 34,932 million in FY23A to RMB 49,573 million in FY27E, with a CAGR of approximately 10.9% [2][11]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from RMB 11,582 million in FY23A to RMB 14,952 million in FY27E, reflecting a CAGR of about 10.3% [2][11]. - The company’s P/E ratio is forecasted to decrease from 24.8 in FY23A to 19.2 in FY27E, indicating improving valuation metrics [2][11]. Business Segments - The company is focusing on several key areas: - **Life Information and Support Business**: Utilizing AI to enhance clinical decision-making and patient care [6]. - **Ultrasound Business**: Offering AI-driven solutions to improve diagnostic efficiency and quality [6]. - **In Vitro Diagnostics (IVD)**: Expanding automated production lines and launching new products to enhance market competitiveness [6]. - **Emerging Business**: Targeting interventional and minimally invasive treatments, with plans to develop surgical robots [6]. Valuation Analysis - The DCF valuation indicates a per-share value of RMB 272.90, based on a WACC of 9.2% and a perpetual growth rate of 3.0% [8]. - The report shows a slight upward adjustment in profit expectations, reflecting confidence in the company's growth trajectory [6][10].

Macro Economic Overview - US inflation in May was lower than expected, with energy prices declining and weak consumer demand offsetting tariff impacts, leading to a slight decrease in core goods prices [2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a wait-and-see approach in the short term, with potential rate cuts anticipated in September to December [2][4] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 24,035, down 1.36% for the day but up 40.99% year-to-date [2] - The US stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones up 0.24% and the S&P 500 up 0.38%, while the Nasdaq also increased by 0.24% [2] - European markets experienced a decline for the fourth consecutive day, while the UK index reached a historical high [4] Industry Insights - In the internet sector, the focus has shifted back to the effectiveness of competitive barriers and business model moats, with many companies reporting profits in line with or above market expectations [5] - Companies with strong ecosystems and network effects, as well as those with higher profit margins, are expected to perform better in a competitive landscape [5] - Recommended stocks in the online entertainment sector include Kuaishou, NetEase, and Tencent Music, which are expected to benefit from stable advertising growth and user engagement [5] Long-term Investment Focus - Two main investment themes are highlighted: companies with strong technology attributes and diverse application scenarios, particularly those benefiting from AI demand, such as Alibaba and Tencent [6] - Companies related to overseas services, including gaming and cloud services, are also recommended for long-term investment [6] Focus Stocks - Geely Automobile (175 HK) is rated as a buy with a target price of 24.00, representing a 37% upside [7] - Alibaba (BABA US) is also rated as a buy with a target price of 155.50, indicating a 28% upside [7] - Other recommended stocks include Tencent, Ctrip, and Luckin Coffee, all rated as buy with significant upside potential [7]

年 6 月 12 日 招银国际环球市场 | 宏观研究 | 宏观视角 美国经济 通胀低于预期 美国 5 月 CPI 通胀低于预期，能源价格下跌和消费走弱抵消关税影响，核心商品 环比略跌。权重较高的运输工具环比跌幅扩大，进口比例较大家具、休闲用品和 医疗用品等涨幅较小。房租通胀延续缓慢下行，出行服务价格下跌，显示可选消 费走弱。能源价格下跌、企业提前囤货和消费需求走弱可能抑制关税对通胀的传 导作用，关税对通胀影响可能低于预期。美联储短期将保持观望，9-12 月可能降 息两次。 刘泽晖 (852) 3761 8957 frankliu@cmbi.com.hk 叶丙南, Ph.D (852) 3761 8967 yebingnan@cmbi.com.hk 资料来源：Wind，招银国际环球市场 0 2 4 6 8 10 CPI 核心CPI CPI预测 核心CPI预测 同比(%) (5) 0 5 10 15 20 非耐用品 耐用品 服务扣除房租 房租 (%) 敬请参阅尾页之免责声明 请到彭博 (搜索代码: RESP CMBR )或 http:// www.cmbi.com.hk 下载更多招银国际环球市场研究报 告 1 M ...

Company Analysis - Jiumaojiu (9922 HK) is expected to see a recovery in same-store sales and the initial effects of store reform are in line with expectations [2] - In Q2, same-store sales are anticipated to improve, with a notable decrease in the decline from double digits in April to single digits in early June, significantly better than the 21.2% drop in Q1 [2] - The average selling price has stabilized due to reduced discounts, and the decline in Q2 is mainly attributed to decreased foot traffic [2] - The table turnover rate for the Taier brand is expected to improve to approximately 3.3 times in Q2 from 3.1 times in Q1, driven by a low base from last year, reduced competition, extended holidays, and consumer sentiment boosted by appliance subsidies [2] - Store renovations have had a positive impact, with significant upgrades emphasizing fresh ingredients and diverse menus [2] - Three large stores in Guangzhou have been renovated at an investment of 1.8-2 million yuan each, with completion in 45 days, achieving turnover rates of 4-5 times on weekdays and 6-8 times on weekends [2] - Approximately 20 small stores have also been upgraded, costing 200,000-300,000 yuan each, with a 30% increase in same-store sales post-renovation [2] - The management indicated that a sales growth of about 12% would cover the additional costs incurred from renovations [2] - Plans are in place to upgrade 50 stores in the first half of the year, reaching 70 by July, and further adjusting 100-150 stores in the second half [2] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 24,367, up 2.41% for the day and 42.94% year-to-date [3] - The Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 3.12%, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 44.81% [3] - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.50%, with a year-to-date rise of 14.37% [3] - The US markets showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones up 0.24% and the S&P 500 up 0.64%, while the Nasdaq rose by 0.95% [3] - European markets had varied performances, with the DAX down 1.01% and the CAC up 0.37% [3] Sector Insights - The Hong Kong stock market saw materials, energy, and financial sectors leading the gains, while consumer staples, healthcare, and utilities declined [5] - In the A-share market, non-ferrous metals, agriculture, and non-bank financials performed well, while biomedicine, communications, and beauty care lagged [5] - The European Central Bank projected that gold will account for 20% of global central bank reserves by 2024, surpassing the euro's 16% share, making it the second-largest reserve asset after the dollar [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a HOLD rating for Jiumaojiu with a target price raised to HK$ 2.99 from the previous HK$ 2.56, indicating an upside potential of 11.4% from the current price of HK$ 2.68 [1][3][14]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing a recovery in same-store sales (SSS), with a decline narrowing in 2Q25E, attributed to initial successes in store format upgrades. The sustainability of this recovery into 2H25E and FY26E is crucial [1][10]. - The management has implemented a store format upgrade focusing on fresh ingredients, which has shown positive results. The upgrades are expected to enhance traffic and sales significantly [10][14]. - The financial forecasts have been revised upwards, with net profit estimates for FY25E, FY26E, and FY27E increased by 9,042%, 33%, and 22% respectively, reflecting lower impairment losses and improved operating margins [14]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY25E are set at RMB 6,140 million, with a slight year-on-year growth of 1.1%. For FY26E and FY27E, revenue is expected to grow to RMB 6,911 million and RMB 7,088 million respectively [2][18]. - Operating profit is forecasted to increase from RMB 327.3 million in FY25E to RMB 532.6 million in FY26E, with net profit expected to rise from RMB 142 million in FY25E to RMB 298 million in FY26E [2][18]. - The report highlights a significant increase in diluted EPS for FY25E to RMB 0.103, reflecting a growth of 9,154.1% compared to the previous year [11][18]. Share Performance - The market capitalization of Jiumaojiu is approximately HK$ 3,897.3 million, with a 52-week high of HK$ 5.54 and a low of HK$ 2.19 [4]. - Recent share performance shows a 1-month increase of 3.9%, but a decline of 31.1% over the past 6 months [6]. Shareholding Structure - The largest shareholder is Mr. Guan Yi Hong, holding 37.4% of the shares, followed by JPMorgan Chase & Co with 7.5% [5]. Valuation Metrics - The report indicates a P/E ratio of 23.9x for FY25E, which is expected to decrease to 11.4x in FY26E and further to 9.5x in FY27E [2][18]. - The projected dividend yield for FY25E is approximately 2.1%, with a payout ratio assumed at 50% of net profit [14].

Industry Overview - The demand for excavators in the Chinese construction machinery industry showed a slight decline of 1% year-on-year in May, which is below expectations. However, this is viewed as a single-month drop following a strong growth trend since early 2024, indicating resilience in the excavator market driven by replacement demand [2] - In contrast, the domestic sales of wheel loaders increased by 17% year-on-year in May, likely supported by robust capital expenditures in the non-ferrous metals sector [2] - The report maintains a buy rating for Sany Heavy Industry (600031 CH), Hengli Hydraulic (601100 CH), and Zoomlion Heavy Industry (1157 HK / 000157 CH) [2] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 24,163, up 1.56% year-to-date, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 2.00%, reflecting a 43.25% increase for the year [2] - The performance of major global stock indices was mixed, with the US Dow Jones and S&P 500 showing slight gains, while the German DAX and French CAC experienced declines [3] Company Specifics - Hengli Hydraulic's hydraulic cylinder production for excavators continues to show an upward trend, indicating stable downstream orders [2] - The report highlights the potential for investment in the construction machinery sector, particularly in companies that are expected to benefit from ongoing infrastructure developments and equipment upgrades [2]