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敏实集团:Solid growth outlook from battery housing, robotics and AIDC-20260203
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2026-02-03 02:24
Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Minth Group, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [1][8]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see solid earnings growth in the second half of 2025, with a projected net profit increase of 17% year-over-year for FY25E. This growth is anticipated to accelerate further in FY26-27E, driven by the expansion in battery housing and contributions from new business segments such as humanoid robots and AI server liquid cooling systems [1][8]. - Revenue forecasts for FY25E, FY26E, and FY27E have been revised upwards by 3-6%, reflecting a positive outlook for the company's performance in these years [8][10]. Financial Summary - For FY25E, revenue is projected at RMB 25,945 million, with a year-over-year growth of 12.1%. Net profit is expected to reach RMB 2,708 million, reflecting a 16.8% increase [2][12]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for FY25E is estimated at RMB 2.36, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.5x [2][12]. - The gross profit margin is expected to be 28.7% for FY25E, with operating and net margins projected at 12.1% and 10.4%, respectively [10][12]. Share Performance - The target price for Minth Group has been set at HK$42.00, representing a 17.3% upside from the current price of HK$35.80 [3]. - The market capitalization of the company is approximately HK$42,313.8 million, with an average turnover of HK$228.4 million over the past three months [3]. Shareholding Structure - The largest shareholder is Chin Jong-Hwa's family, holding 38.1% of the shares, followed by Invesco Asset Management with 6.0% [4]. Growth Projections - The company anticipates a 16% year-over-year increase in NEV sales volume in Europe for FY26E, which is expected to benefit its battery housing business significantly [8]. - New business segments are projected to contribute over RMB 1 billion in revenue by FY27E, with additional contributions from door sealing systems and other new businesses expected to exceed RMB 0.5 billion [8]. Valuation - The report maintains a target price based on a P/E ratio of 13x for the revised FY26E EPS, reflecting confidence in the company's growth trajectory [8].
石药集团:地标性BD交易将推动长期增长-20260203
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2026-02-03 00:24
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for CSPC Pharmaceutical Group with a target price of HK$13.93, up from the previous target of HK$11.05, indicating a potential upside of 45.1% from the current price of HK$9.60 [6][9]. Core Insights - A significant licensing agreement valued at over US$18.5 billion has been established with AstraZeneca, focusing on eight weight management and type II diabetes projects, which is expected to drive long-term growth for CSPC [3]. - CSPC has demonstrated a strong track record in business development, signing six licensing agreements since the end of 2024, which validates its drug discovery capabilities and suggests sustainable revenue streams in the medium to long term [4]. - The company reported total revenue of RMB 19.9 billion for the first nine months of 2025, with a core revenue decline of 19% year-on-year, although a recovery was noted in Q3 2025 with a 4.2% quarter-on-quarter increase in core revenue [5]. Financial Summary - For FY25E, CSPC's revenue is projected to be RMB 26.949 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 7.1%, with a net profit of RMB 4.945 billion, which is expected to grow by 14.0% in FY26E [8][19]. - The company’s R&D expenses increased by 7.9% year-on-year to RMB 4.2 billion for the first nine months of 2025, representing a R&D expense ratio of 21.0% [5]. - The sales expense ratio decreased significantly from 29.2% in the first nine months of 2024 to 24.1% in the same period of 2025, indicating improved cost management [5]. Valuation Metrics - The report projects an increase in earnings forecasts due to the AstraZeneca deal, adjusting the DCF-based target price to HK$13.93, with a WACC of 9.34% and a terminal growth rate of 3.0% [6][16]. - The estimated EPS for FY25E is RMB 0.43, with a PE ratio of 20.1, which is expected to decrease to 14.9 by FY26E [8][19].
固定收益部市场日报-20260202
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2026-02-02 13:18
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the fixed - income market, including bond price movements, new issuances, and macro - economic factors. It also provides insights into the China economy based on PMI data and anticipates policy stimulus and GDP growth trends [2][3][13] - West China Cement's tender offer and new bond issuance are considered to lower its near - term refinancing risk, and the report maintains a buy rating on WESCHI 9.9 12/04/28 [7][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading Desk Comments - Last Friday, financial FRNs traded 1bp wider. In HK, NWDEVL/VDNWDL complex surged 0.5 - 3.0pts. FAEACO 12.814 Perp rose 1.5pts. SHUION 26 - 29 edged 0.2 - 0.6pt higher. SUNHKC 26 was 0.1pt lower and SUNHKC 29 was 0.3pt higher. TW lifers were 2 - 4bps wider. Long - end MEITUA/KUAISH widened 2 - 3bps. EHICAR 26 was down by 0.6pt. WESCHI 26 - 28 were 0.1pt higher. In Chinese properties, VNKRLEs rose 1.8 - 2.7pts. FUTLAN 28 edged 1.1pts higher. LNGFOR 27 - 32 were 0.2pt lower to 0.2pt higher. In SE Asian space, OCBCSP/UOBSP traded 1 - 2bps wider. IHFLIN 27 - 30/TOPTB 6.1 Perp were unchanged to 0.1pt lower. VLLPM 27 - 29 rose 1.0 - 1.3pts. GLPSP Perps were up by 0.5 - 0.9pt. JP insurance subs like RESLIF 6.875 Perp leaked by 0.1pt. NTT 35/MUFG35 - 36 were 1 - 3bps wider. Yankee AT1s were 0.3pt weaker. In the Middle East, ARAMCO 30 - 56s/SECO 29 - 36s widened 1 - 4bps. Long - end KSAs were down 0.1 - 0.5pt. LGFV space was stable [2] - This morning, HYNMTR FRNs were 1 - 2bps tighter. KUAISH slightly recovered to 1bp tighter. ZHOSHK 28 spread was unchanged. FAEACO 12.814 Perp/VNKRLE 27 were 1.0 - 1.2pts lower. NDPAPE 14 Perp was 0.3pt higher. WESCHI 26 - 28 were 0.4 - 1.0pt higher [3] Marco News Recap - Last Friday, S&P (- 0.43%), Dow (- 0.36%) and Nasdaq (- 0.94%) were lower. Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to lead Federal Reserve. US Dec'25 PPI was +0.5% mom, higher than the market expectation of +0.2%. 2/5 - year UST yield was higher while 10/30 - year UST yield was lower. 2/5/10/30 - year yield was at 3.52%/3.79%/4.26%/4.87% [6] Desk Analyst Comments - West China Cement (Weschi) launched a tender offer for its USD200mn WESCHI 4.95 07/08/26 at a tender price of 101.238, equivalent to the bond's call price. The offer expires on 6 Feb'26 5pm CET. Weschi plans to redeem WESCHI 26 in full on 6 Mar'26 at 101.238 [7] - Concurrently, Weschi will issue USD300mn WESCHI 10.5 11/11/29 (-/B/B). Net proceeds will be used to refinance existing debts, including funding the tender offer and early redemption for WESCHI 4.95 07/08/26. The report maintains a buy on WESCHI 9.9 12/04/28 for its good carry, with WESCHI 28 trading at YTM of 9.8% at 100.3, up c2pts YTD. Weschi's earnings improved in 1H25, and near - term refinancing risk is viewed as lower [8] China Economy - China's manufacturing PMI retreated in January after a December rebound. Demand softened as new orders slipped back into contraction and export orders weakened again. Deflation pressure continued to ease, with raw material purchase and ex - factory prices both expanding, indicating PPI may return to positive sooner. Service PMI remained in contraction while construction PMI fell back, signaling pressure to stabilize fixed asset investment. Policy stimulus around CNY is expected, including stabilizing the property market and stimulating consumption. A 50bp cut in RRR and a 10bp cut in LPR in 1Q26 are expected, followed by an additional 10bp LPR cut in 3Q26. The broad fiscal deficit should remain almost flat at 8.5% in 2026, and the full - year GDP growth rate may decline from 5% in 2025 to 4.6% in 2026 [12][13] - Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3% in January from 50.1% in December, with new order index declining to 49.2% from 50.8% and new export orders falling to 47.8% from 49.0%. Production eased but stayed in expansion at 50.6% in Jan. Deflation pressure continued to ease as raw material purchase prices stayed elevated and ex - factory prices improved. Import demand stayed weak, and inventory indicators remained subdued [14] - Non - manufacturing PMI softened in January. Service PMI edged down to 49.5% from 49.7%, with activity expectations improving. Service selling prices improved, while employment remained subdued. Construction fell to 48.8% in January, with new orders weakening and business expectations easing, indicating pressure on fixed asset investment [15] Offshore Asia New Issues Priced | Issuer/Guarantor | Size (USD mn) | Tenor | Coupon | Priced | Issue Rating (M/S/F) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ADM Elektrik | 500 | 5NC2 | 9.5% | 9.5% | B2/-/BB | | Tsetsen Mining and Energy | 300 | 5yr | 11.375% | 11.5% | Unrated | | West China Cement | 300 | 3.75yr | 10.5% | 10.5% | -/B/B | [18] Pipeline | Issuer/Guarantor | Currency | Size (USD mn) | Tenor | Pricing | Issue Rating (M/S/F) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CMBC International Funding (HK) | USD | - | 3yr | SOFR + 115 | -/-/BBB | | New Development Bank | USD | - | 3yr | SOFR MS + 55 | Unrated | [19] News and Market Color - Last Friday, 81 credit bonds were issued onshore with an amount of RMB45bn. In Jan'26, 1,999 credit bonds were issued with a total amount of RMB1,691bn, a 16.2% yoy increase [20] - China is considering selling special government bonds of RMB200bn (cUSD29bn) to recapitalize some insurers and injecting RMB300bn into ICBC and ABC [20] - Macau gaming revenue for Jan'26 rose 24% yoy to MOP22.6bn (cUSD2.8bn) [20] - Indonesia is reforming its equity markets after the Jakarta Composite Index plunged by up to 16.5% [20] - Adani Green's directors plan to seek dismissal in US SEC lawsuit [20] - Azure Power Energy delayed the planned early redemption of AZUPOE 3.575 08/19/26 of USD294.184mn to 13 Feb'26 from 5 Feb'26 [20] - Panama's top court ruled that CK Hutchison's port - operating contract is unconstitutional [20] - China Overseas Grand Oceans priced a 3yr dim sum bond at 3.2%, tightened from IPT at 3.75%, issue size RMB1.3bn [20] - Dalian Wanda announced to redeem USD50mn of DALWAN 11 02/13/28, and the maximum acceptance amount of the tender offer is USD350mn [20] - Muthoot Finance plans to raise USD600mn under the global medium - term note program [20] - Nomura Holdings 9MFY26 net revenue rose 10.5% yoy to JPY1.6tn (cUSD10.4bn) [20] - CTFE is in discussions with potential investors regarding potential investments in NWD, but no agreement has been reached [20] - Vedanta Ltd.'s demerge plan will be effective on 1 Apr'26, and it expects to list four demerged units by mid - May'26 [20] - China Vanke expects its loss attributable to shareholders to widen sharply in FY25 to RMB82bn (cUSD11.8bn) [27] - Yuexiu Property priced a 3yr dim sum bond at 3.4%, tightened from IPT at 3.85%, issue size RMB1.735bn [27]
每日投资策略-20260202
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2026-02-02 07:26
Group 1: Macro Commentary - The manufacturing PMI in China has shown a decline, indicating weaker demand, with new orders and export orders decreasing [5] - Domestic and external demand weakness is expected to slow growth momentum, prompting potential policy easing before and after the "Two Sessions" [5] - GDP growth is projected to decrease from 5% in 2025 to 4.6% in 2026, with expectations of RRR and LPR cuts [5] Group 2: Industry Commentary - Apple reported FY1Q26 earnings that exceeded expectations, with a 16% year-on-year revenue growth driven by strong iPhone sales and a 38% increase in the Chinese market [5] - The gross margin for Apple improved to 48.2%, and the guidance for FY2Q26 indicates a revenue growth of 13-16% despite supply constraints [5] - The technology sector is expected to benefit from Apple's product cycle and collaborations with Google AI, with companies like Luxshare Precision and BYD Electronics positioned for growth [5] Group 3: Company Commentary - Thermo Fisher reported a strong 4Q25 performance with a 7.2% year-on-year revenue growth, driven by demand from pharmaceutical clients [6] - The company expects a revenue growth of 3.9% to 5.9% for 2026, with adjusted EPS growth of 5.9% to 8.4% [6] - Recent acquisitions are expected to enhance Thermo Fisher's capabilities and drive future growth, with an anticipated adjusted EPS growth of 7-9% [7][8] Group 4: Company Forecasts - Zhengli's battery sales forecast for 2025 has been raised from 18.4 GWh to 19.6 GWh due to strong demand from new electric vehicle models [9] - The average selling price is expected to increase, leading to a projected net profit growth of 550% to 591 million yuan in 2025 [9] - For 2026, Zhengli's sales forecast remains at 30 GWh, with an 8% revenue increase expected, raising the net profit forecast to 1.36 billion yuan [9]
赛默飞世尔科技:4Q25 results: Capitalizing on the growing pharmaceutical demand-20260202
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2026-02-02 05:24
Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Thermo Fisher with a new target price of US$670, up from the previous target price of US$654, indicating a potential upside of 15.8% from the current price of US$578.61 [2][8]. Core Insights - Thermo Fisher reported a strong performance in 4Q25, with revenue increasing by 7.2% year-over-year, marking the fastest quarterly growth in 2025. Adjusted EPS rose by 7.7%, surpassing Bloomberg consensus estimates by 2.2% and 1.9%, respectively [1][8]. - The company expects revenue growth of 3.9% to 5.9% and adjusted EPS growth of 5.9% to 8.4% for the full year 2026, reaffirming a long-term organic revenue growth target of 3%-6% [1][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For FY25, Thermo Fisher's revenue was US$44,556 million, with a year-over-year growth of 3.9%. The adjusted net profit was US$8,643 million, reflecting a growth of 3.1% [9][14]. - The company forecasts revenue of US$46,849 million for FY26, representing a growth of 5.1%, and adjusted net profit of US$9,130 million, which is a 5.6% increase [9][14]. Market Dynamics - The pharmaceutical and biotech sectors were the strongest client segments for Thermo Fisher in 2025, achieving mid-single-digit revenue growth for the year and high-single-digit growth in 4Q25. Management noted increased confidence among pharma companies in their relationships with governments [8]. - Biotech financing showed recovery in the second half of 2025, which is expected to drive revenue growth despite a typical lag of approximately six months between funding and R&D expenditure [8]. Strategic Acquisitions - In 2025, Thermo Fisher completed significant acquisitions, including Solventum's filtration and separation business for US$4.0 billion and Sanofi's sterile fill-finish facility for US$8.9 billion. These acquisitions are anticipated to enhance the company's global leadership in bioproduction and expand its capacity in the U.S. [8][9]. - Management expects adjusted EPS to grow by 7-9% in 2026 as a result of these strategic acquisitions [8]. Service Capabilities - Thermo Fisher's CDMO segment experienced strong growth in 2025, benefiting from limited sterile fill-finish capacity globally. The acquisition of Sanofi's facility is expected to secure growing orders for production in the U.S. [8]. - The integrated Accelerator business aims to improve project execution and reduce time-to-market for innovative drugs, thereby generating significant orders through differentiated service offerings [8].
正力新能:Higher earnings visibility amid better clientmix, possible battery price hike-20260131
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2026-01-31 00:24
Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Zenergy, with a target price of HK$18.00, indicating a potential upside of 103.4% from the current price of HK$8.85 [3][6]. Core Insights - Zenergy's FY25E net profit forecast has been revised up by 4% to RMB591 million due to a better product mix and expected revenue growth from GAC Toyota, which is anticipated to become the largest revenue contributor [1][6]. - The FY26E net profit forecast has also been increased by 4% to RMB1.36 billion, driven by improved client mix and potential battery price hikes [1][6]. - The company is expected to achieve solid earnings visibility in the second half of FY25, with a projected operating profit of RMB302 million and a net profit of RMB370 million for that period [6][7]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY25E are set at RMB8.2 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 59.8%, while FY26E revenue is expected to reach RMB14.6 billion, a growth of 77.6% [2][10]. - Gross margin is projected to improve from 18.0% in FY25E to 18.5% in FY26E, supported by a better product mix and higher average selling prices [2][8]. - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of RMB1.88 billion by FY27E, with a corresponding EPS of 72.27 RMB cents [2][10]. Earnings Revision - The revenue forecast for FY25E has been increased by 6.9% to RMB8.2 billion, while FY26E revenue has been revised up by 8% to RMB14.6 billion [8][9]. - The net profit estimates for FY25E and FY26E have been adjusted upwards by 3.8% and 3.9% respectively, reflecting the positive outlook for the company's performance [8][9]. Market Performance - Zenergy's market capitalization stands at HK$22.61 billion, with an average turnover of HK$20.2 million over the past three months [4]. - The stock has shown a 7.0% increase over the past month, although it has declined by 13.2% over the past six months [5].
现在服务公司:4Q25 results: solid AI business and margin expansion-20260130
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2026-01-30 08:24
Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for ServiceNow, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [17]. Core Insights - ServiceNow reported a total revenue increase of 21% YoY to US$3.57 billion in 4Q25, aligning with Bloomberg consensus estimates. Non-GAAP operating income grew by 26% YoY to US$1.10 billion, exceeding consensus by 3% due to AI-enhanced efficiencies and disciplined expense control [1]. - For FY26E, management guided subscription revenue to increase by 20.5%-21% YoY to US$15.53-15.57 billion, with a further 100bps expansion of both non-GAAP operating profit and free cash flow margin to 32% and 36%, respectively, driven by AI-enabled efficiency gains [1]. - The AI product momentum remains strong, with Now Assist annual contract value (ACV) surpassing US$600 million in 4Q25, ahead of the previous target of US$500 million and on track to reach US$1 billion by FY26-end [1]. - The target price for ServiceNow has been lowered to US$215.00 based on a 40x FY26E EV/EBITDA, down from US$236.00 based on a 45x FY26E EV/EBITDA, reflecting sector valuation impacts due to increased competition from AI and LLM service providers [1][12]. Financial Summary - For FY26E, total revenue is projected at US$15.973 billion, with adjusted net profit expected to reach US$4.518 billion, resulting in an adjusted EPS of US$4.36 [2]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately US$122.22 billion, with a current share price of US$116.73, indicating an upside potential of 84.2% to the target price [3][4]. - The non-GAAP operating profit margin expanded by 1.4 percentage points YoY to 30.9% in 4Q25, attributed to improved efficiency and disciplined expense control [9]. Growth Projections - Subscription revenue is expected to grow by 20.3% in FY26E, with adjusted net profit growth projected at 23.2% [15]. - The company anticipates a revenue growth rate of 20.5%-21% for FY26E, with further growth expected in subsequent years [1][14]. Valuation - The valuation of ServiceNow is set at US$215.00 per share based on a target EV/EBITDA of 40x for FY26E, which is at a premium to the sector average of 29x, justified by the strong earnings growth outlook [12][13].
微软:Results beat; long-term structural growth story remains unchanged-20260130
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2026-01-30 08:24
Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Microsoft, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [19]. Core Insights - Microsoft reported 2QFY26 results with revenue of US$81.3 billion, reflecting a 16.7% year-over-year growth, which is 1.5% better than both the forecast and Bloomberg consensus estimates [1]. - Operating income increased by 20.9% year-over-year to US$38.3 billion, exceeding forecasts, driven by strong performance in the Productivity and Business Processes (PBP) and Intelligent Cloud (IC) segments [1]. - The target price has been revised down by 3% to US$614.6, translating into a price-to-earnings ratio of 35x for FY26E and 31x for FY27E [1][2]. Financial Performance - Revenue growth in the Intelligent Cloud segment was 28.8% year-over-year, contributing US$32.9 billion, which accounted for 40.5% of total revenue [7]. - Azure and other cloud services revenue grew by 39% year-over-year, aligning with consensus expectations [7]. - The Productivity and Business Processes segment generated US$34.1 billion in revenue, up 15.9% year-over-year, representing 42.0% of total revenue [7]. Capital Expenditure and Outlook - Capital expenditures, including financial leases, reached US$37.5 billion for 2QFY26, up 66% year-over-year, with a significant portion allocated to short-lived assets like GPUs and CPUs [7]. - Management anticipates a decrease in capital expenditures in 3QFY26 due to normal variability in cloud infrastructure buildouts [7]. Earnings Summary - For FY26E, revenue is projected at US$327.7 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 16.3% [8]. - Net profit is expected to reach US$129.5 billion, reflecting a 27.1% year-over-year increase [8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for FY26E is estimated at US$17.41, with a P/E ratio of 27.7x [8]. Share Performance and Market Data - The current market capitalization of Microsoft is approximately US$3.59 trillion, with an average turnover of US$12.08 billion over the last three months [3]. - The stock has a 52-week high of US$542.07 and a low of US$354.56 [3].
固定收益部市场日报-20260130
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2026-01-30 07:50
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - China's economic rebalancing and global liquidity easing are expected to support stocks, commodities, and EM currencies in 1H26, but may face challenges in 2H26 if US inflation resurges [3][11][17]. - The convergence of China's economic rebalancing and global liquidity easing is likely to bolster risky assets throughout 1H26, while the outlook for 2H26 is more cautious [17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading Desk Comments - In the Chinese IG space, MEITUA and KUAISH had balanced two - way flows, with slightly better selling on 10yr issues; ZHOSHK tightened 1bp; ORIEAS/CCAMCL papers with <5yr tenor tightened 1 - 3bps [2]. - In HK, FRESHK curve tightened 3 - 5bps; BNKEA T2s traded mixed; NWDEVL/VDNWDL complex surged 0.7 - 7.3pts; LASUDE 26 rose 0.9pt; FAEACO 12.814 Perp was 0.5pt higher; EHICAR 26 dropped 1.4pts [2]. - In Chinese properties, VNKRLE 27 - 29 rose 1.5 - 1.8pts; SHUION 29/DALWAN 28 gained 0.4pt; DALWAN priced USD360mn new bond; LNGFOR 27 - 32/FUTLAN 28/FTLNHD 26 - 27 rose 0.3 - 1.2pts [2]. - In KR space, HYUELE 29s tightened 4bps; AU and JP fixed - rate IG credits squeezed 1 - 2bps tighter; JP bank FRNs tightened 1 - 2bps; JP insurance subs remained better offered; there were decent two - way flows in Yankee AT1s [2]. - In SE Asian space, BBLTB T2s tightened 2 - 3bps; GLPSP Perps rose 1.1 - 1.3pts; VEDLN 28 - 33s were unchanged to 0.4pt higher; INDYIJ 29 lost 0.4pt; MEDCIJ 26 - 30s were unchanged to 0.2pt lower [2]. - In the Middle Eastern space, long - end KSAs lost 0.1 - 0.3pt; SNBAB 6.15 Perp was 0.1pt lower; SECO 36 tightened 1bp; ARAMCO attracted better buying but closed largely unchanged [2]. Macro News Recap - On Thursday, S&P (-0.13%), Dow (+0.11%), and Nasdaq (-0.72%) were mixed; US latest initial jobless claims were +209k, higher than the market expectation; UST yield was lower, with 2/5/10/30 - year yield at 3.53%/3.80%/4.24%/4.85% [6]. Desk Analyst Comments - Regarding NWDEVL/VDNWDL, media reported Blackstone in advanced discussions to become NWD's largest shareholder; NWD confirmed potential investors approached, but no agreement reached; Cheng's family owns c45% of NWD [7]. - Cheng's family reshuffled group entities: transferred c54% of CTF Jewellery to Beyond Luck Limited; increased stakes in CTFH by 9.49% to 90.52%; CTFE to sell Alinta Energy to Sembcorp for AUD6.5bn (cUSD4.3bn) [8]. - Maintain buy on VDNWDL 9 Perp due to higher certainty of coupon payments; expect more corporate actions for NWDEVLs [9]. China Policy: Signals for Economic Rebalancing - China's policymakers signaled a pivot to "boosting domestic demand" in 2026 to address economic imbalance [10]. - Demand - side policies focus on stabilizing the property market and stimulating consumption; supply - side policies aim to address overcapacity; trade - side policies employ a four - pronged approach [10]. - The rebalancing process may lead to a GDP growth target reduction to 4.5% - 5% in 2026, but is structurally positive [10]. Offshore Asia New Issues - Issued: Dalian Wanda issued USD360mn 2 - yr bond at 12.75% coupon; First Abu Dhabi Bank PJS issued USD750mn 5 - yr bond at SOFR+75; Muthoot Finance issued USD600mn 4.5 - yr bond at 5.75% coupon [19][20]. - Pipeline: No offshore Asia new issues pipeline on this day [20]. News and Market Color - 101 credit bonds were issued yesterday in onshore primary issuances, amounting to RMB82bn; month - to - date, 1,920 credit bonds were issued with RMB1,652bn raised, a 13.5% yoy increase [25]. - Adani Group plans to raise up to cUSD1.5bn in JPY - denominated bonds and loans [25]. - China Overseas Grand Oceans and Yuexiu Property propose to issue 3 - yr dim sum bonds [25]. - China Vanke to make partial payment for 21Wanke02 onshore bonds on 30 Jan'26 [25]. - West China Cement's proposed acquisition of AfriSam Holdings has a consideration of USD150mn [25].
舜宇光学科技:FY25E profit alert in-line; auto/smart glasses to offset smartphone weakness in 2026-20260130
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2026-01-30 03:24
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Sunny Optical, with a new target price (TP) of HK$91.38, implying a potential upside of 45.3% from the current price of HK$62.90 [3][14]. Core Insights - Sunny Optical has announced a positive profit alert for FY25E, projecting a net profit growth of 70-75% year-over-year, driven by high-end specification upgrades, improved product mix, and investment income from a deal with Goertek Optical Tech [1][9]. - For FY26, the company expects revenue growth to be supported by trends in smart driving, AI/AR glasses, and high-end camera specifications, which will help offset weaknesses in the smartphone segment due to memory cost pressures [1][9]. - The report indicates a slight reduction in FY26-27E EPS estimates by 1-4% to account for headwinds in the smartphone industry [1][9]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY25E are set at RMB 42,056 million, with a year-over-year growth of 9.8%. For FY26E, revenue is expected to decline slightly to RMB 41,582 million, followed by a recovery to RMB 45,468 million in FY27E [2][22]. - Net profit is forecasted to reach RMB 4,610 million in FY25E, a 70.8% increase year-over-year, but is expected to decrease to RMB 3,909 million in FY26E before rebounding to RMB 4,699 million in FY27E [2][22]. - The report highlights a projected EPS of RMB 4.24 for FY25E, with consensus estimates at RMB 3.25 for the same period [2][11]. Valuation - The new target price of HK$91.38 is derived from a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation methodology, applying a target P/E multiple of 23.4x FY26E EPS, reflecting the company's diversified business model and growth potential across various segments [3][14][16]. - The report assigns different P/E multiples to various business segments, with 23x for camera modules and handset lenses, and 25x for vehicle lenses, reflecting their respective market positions and growth prospects [15][16].