Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Kelun-Biotech, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [3][14]. Core Insights - Kelun-Biotech is transitioning from a clinical-stage biotech to a biopharmaceutical company, with 2025 marked as its inaugural year of commercialization, supported by four approved products and a strong revenue trajectory [1]. - The company reported total revenue of RMB2.06 billion in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.5%, with pharmaceutical product sales contributing RMB543 million [1][2]. - The inclusion of three core assets (Sac-TMT, A167, and A140) in the National Reimbursement Drug List (NRDL) effective January 2026 is expected to drive volume growth in 2026 [1]. - Despite a widened net loss of RMB382 million in 2025, the company's financial position remains robust, with RMB4.6 billion in cash and financial assets as of the end of 2025 [1]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY26E are RMB2.127 billion, with expected growth of 3.4% year-on-year, and projected revenue for FY28E is RMB5.866 billion, reflecting a significant growth of 113.6% [2][11]. - The net profit is projected to be a loss of RMB689.7 million in FY26E, improving to a profit of RMB703.6 million by FY28E [2][11]. - The report indicates a gross profit margin improvement from 71.9% in FY25A to 81.6% in FY28E [12]. Share Performance and Valuation - The target price for Kelun-Biotech is set at HK$507.11, representing a 20.5% upside from the current price of HK$421.00 [3]. - The market capitalization of the company is approximately HK$98.17 billion [3]. - The DCF valuation per share is estimated at RMB446.25, equivalent to HK$507.11, based on a WACC of 8.69% and a terminal growth rate of 3.5% [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for WuXi XDC, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [17]. Core Insights - WuXi XDC reported a robust 46.7% year-over-year increase in revenue for 2025, with adjusted attributable net profit growing by 69.9% year-over-year [1]. - The company's backlog surged by 50.3% year-over-year to reach US$1.49 billion, with newly signed orders growing by 41% year-over-year to US$1.33 billion, indicating strong growth momentum [1]. - Management anticipates revenue growth of more than 40% year-over-year in 2026, with gross profit margin expected to remain flat compared to 2025 [1]. - The company signed a record-breaking 70 new iCMC projects in 2025, up 32% year-over-year, reflecting strong demand from both Chinese and US clients [8]. - WuXi XDC plans to invest a total of RMB 8.0 billion in capital expenditures between 2026 and 2030, with RMB 3.1 billion projected for 2026 alone, representing a 158% year-over-year increase over 2025 [8]. - The target price has been adjusted from HK$88.00 to HK$82.00, reflecting updated guidance and forecasts [3][8]. Financial Summary - For FY25, revenue was reported at RMB 5,944 million, with a year-over-year growth of 46.7% [2]. - Adjusted net profit for FY25 was RMB 1,559 million, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 69.9% [2]. - The projected revenue for FY26 is RMB 8,096 million, with a year-over-year growth of 36.2% [2]. - The adjusted net profit for FY26 is projected to be RMB 2,096 million, with a year-over-year growth of 34.5% [2]. - The company’s gross profit margin for FY25 was 36.0%, with expectations of maintaining similar margins in the following years [15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Tongcheng Travel, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [1]. Core Insights - Tongcheng Travel reported total revenue of RMB4.8 billion for 4Q25, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.2%, which exceeded both the forecast and Bloomberg consensus estimates [1]. - Adjusted net profit for the same period was RMB780 million, up 18% year-on-year, also surpassing expectations [1]. - The core OTA business's operating profit margin (OPM) remained stable at 28.4%, aligning with estimates, and the company anticipates a 15% year-on-year growth in operating profit for this segment in 2026 [1][7]. - The target price for the stock has been slightly revised to HK$25.5, implying a 14.3x 2026E non-GAAP P/E ratio, with a significant upside potential of 36% from the current price of HK$18.75 [3][1]. Financial Summary - For FY26E, total revenue is projected to reach RMB21.8 billion, representing a 12.5% year-on-year growth, with the core OTA business expected to grow by 14.7% [2][9]. - Adjusted net profit is forecasted to be RMB3.98 billion for FY26E, reflecting a 17% increase year-on-year [9][12]. - The company’s gross profit margin is expected to improve to 68.8% in FY26E, with operating profit margin projected at 21.0% [9][12]. Share Performance - The stock has experienced a decline of 15.2% over the past month and 18.9% over the past six months [5]. - The market capitalization of Tongcheng Travel is approximately HK$43.85 billion [3]. Shareholding Structure - Major shareholders include TCH Sapphire Limited with 13.4% and C-Travel International Limited with 12.4% [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Xiaomi, with a new target price (TP) of HK$44.47, reflecting a potential upside of 36.1% from the current price of HK$32.68 [1][3][27]. Core Insights - Xiaomi's 4Q25 results exceeded expectations, with revenue growth of +7% YoY and adjusted net profit decline of -24% YoY, outperforming Bloomberg consensus estimates by 1% and 10% respectively. This was attributed to improved smartphone average selling price (ASP) and strong performance in the smart EV segment [1][9]. - The company is well-positioned for future growth, focusing on premiumization, IoT expansion overseas, and advancements in AI capabilities, with expectations for these investments to yield results in 2026-27 [1][9]. - Adjustments to FY26-27E net profit estimates have been made, reducing projections by 4-9% due to 4Q25 results and anticipated lower gross profit margins [1][9]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY26E and FY27E are set at RMB 522.3 billion and RMB 613.1 billion, respectively, with YoY growth rates of 14.2% and 17.4% [2][31]. - Adjusted net profit for FY26E is estimated at RMB 35.6 billion, reflecting a decline of 9.1% YoY, while FY27E is projected to recover to RMB 44.0 billion, showing a growth of 23.6% [2][31]. - The report highlights a decrease in gross profit margin for FY26E to 21.0% and FY27E to 22.0%, down from previous estimates [24][31]. Segment Performance - The smartphone segment reported a revenue decline of -14% YoY in 4Q25, driven by a 12% drop in shipments, despite a 7% increase in ASP [9][22]. - The smart EV segment saw a remarkable revenue increase of 122% YoY, with 145,000 deliveries and an ASP rise of 6.6% YoY, contributing positively to overall performance [9][22]. - IoT and lifestyle products experienced a revenue drop of -20% YoY, attributed to diminishing subsidy impacts in China, although overseas markets showed stronger performance [9][22]. Valuation - The target price of HK$44.47 is derived using a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation method, reflecting different growth profiles across Xiaomi's business segments [27][28]. - The implied target multiples are set at 29.5x and 23.9x for FY26E and FY27E P/E, respectively, justified by Xiaomi's market share gains and strategic initiatives [27][28].

Investment Rating - Maintain BUY rating for Minth Group with a target price raised from HK$42.00 to HK$44.00, indicating a potential upside of 22.2% from the current price of HK$36.00 [3][8]. Core Insights - Minth Group's revenue and gross profit margin (GPM) in the aluminium business unit fell short of expectations in 2H25 due to lower sales volume with a key client and delays in business transitions following WKW's bankruptcy. However, net profit for 2H25 was largely in line with expectations due to effective operating expense control [1][8]. - The management has set an aggressive 5-year revenue target with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23%, aiming for revenue to reach RMB72 billion by FY30E, excluding new business contributions from robotics and liquid cooling systems [8]. - The company has a strong overseas revenue exposure of over 60% and is involved in emerging sectors such as robotics and liquid cooling, which are expected to support revenue growth and enhance valuation [1][8]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Minth Group are as follows: FY23A at RMB20,524 million, FY24A at RMB23,147 million, FY25A at RMB25,737 million, FY26E at RMB29,836 million, and FY27E at RMB34,377 million, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 18.6%, 12.8%, 11.2%, 15.9%, and 15.2% respectively [2][12]. - Net profit is projected to grow from RMB1,903.2 million in FY23A to RMB3,729.7 million in FY27E, with year-on-year growth rates of 26.8%, 21.9%, 16.1%, 13.5%, and 22.1% [2][12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from RMB1.65 in FY23A to RMB3.25 in FY27E, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio decreasing from 19.2x in FY23A to 9.8x in FY27E [2][12]. Share Performance - The market capitalization of Minth Group is approximately HK$42,583.8 million, with an average turnover of HK$249.8 million over the past three months [3]. - The stock has experienced a 1-month decline of 16.3% and a 3-month increase of 13.1% [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating on Henlius Biotech with a target price of HK$99.78, reflecting a potential upside of 52.0% from the current price of HK$65.65 [1][3]. Core Insights - Henlius Biotech reported strong FY25 financial results, with total revenue of RMB6.67 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.5%. Product sales reached RMB5.77 billion, exceeding previous estimates by approximately 7.9% [1][5]. - The company is expanding its global biosimilar footprint and forming new international partnerships, positioning itself as an innovative biologics powerhouse with competitive assets such as HLX43, HLX22, and serplulimab [1][5]. - Anticipated clinical and regulatory catalysts in 2026 are expected to further enhance the company's growth trajectory [1]. Financial Summary - FY25 revenue was RMB6,667 million, with a year-on-year growth of 16.5%. Net profit for FY25 was RMB827 million, showing a slight increase of 0.8% year-on-year [2][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for FY25 was reported at RMB1.52, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 37.9 [2][10]. - R&D investments increased to RMB2.49 billion, a growth of 35.4% year-on-year, indicating a strong commitment to developing the next-generation pipeline [5][10]. Product Performance - Serplulimab, a key product, generated sales of RMB1.50 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.0%. The foundational biosimilar franchise, including trastuzumab, achieved global sales of RMB2.97 billion, up 5.5% year-on-year [5][10]. - Overseas product sales doubled to approximately RMB260 million, marking a 100% year-on-year increase [5]. - HLX43, a leading PD-L1 ADC, is entering pivotal stages with promising early efficacy signals in NSCLC, and additional pivotal trials are expected to commence by 4Q26 [5][10]. Market Position and Valuation - The market capitalization of Henlius Biotech is approximately HK$35.68 billion, with an average turnover of HK$61.5 million over the past three months [3]. - The target price of HK$99.78 is derived from a discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis, with a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 9.13% and a terminal growth rate of 3.5% [6][8].

Market Overview - Global markets experienced significant volatility, with major indices showing mixed performance. The Hang Seng Index fell by 3.54% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 rose by 1.15% [1][3]. - The A-share market saw a sharp decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 3.63% and the ChiNext Index down 3.49%, driven by geopolitical tensions and oil price fluctuations [3]. Company Analysis: ZhongAn Online (6060 HK) - ZhongAn Online's net profit for 2025 is projected to grow by 83% year-on-year to 1.102 billion CNY, although it is below the expected 1.209 billion CNY. The second half of 2025 is expected to see a decline in net profit by 21% to 434 million CNY [4]. - The company's combined ratio improved by 1.1 percentage points to 95.8%, driven by strong performance in health and auto insurance segments [4]. - Total premiums increased by 6.9% to 35.7 billion CNY, with auto insurance and health insurance being the main growth drivers [4]. Company Analysis: Greentown Service (2869 HK) - Greentown Service achieved a net profit of 880 million CNY for the 2025 fiscal year, a year-on-year increase of 12.1%, slightly below Bloomberg consensus estimates [5][6]. - The core operating profit grew by 24.6%, significantly exceeding management's previous guidance of 15%, attributed to ongoing cost reduction and efficiency improvement initiatives [6]. - The company anticipates core operating profit growth of over 15% for the 2026 fiscal year, with further improvements in gross margin and a reduction in management expense ratio [7]. Financial Metrics and Projections - ZhongAn Online's target price is set at 18 HKD, reflecting a price-to-earnings ratio of 1.1 times FY26E, with the current trading price at 0.74 times FY26E [5]. - Greentown Service's target price is adjusted to 6.55 HKD, based on a projected price-to-earnings ratio of 18 times for 2026, down from 22 times due to concerns over new home sales and rising vacancy rates [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Greentown Service with a target price of HK$6.55, reflecting a 53.7% upside from the current price of HK$4.26 [1][3]. Core Insights - Greentown Service's FY25 net profit grew by 12.1% year-on-year to RMB 880 million, which was in line with the report's forecast but missed Bloomberg consensus by 6.3% [1]. - The core operating profit surged by 24.6% year-on-year, significantly exceeding the management's guidance of 15% growth, driven by efficiency improvements [1][7]. - The company guided for over 15% core operating profit growth in FY26, with expectations for further efficiency gains and a high dividend payout ratio [1][7]. Financial Performance Summary - FY25 revenue reached RMB 19,164 million, representing a 7.1% year-on-year growth [2]. - The gross profit margin improved to 17.3%, up 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, while the SG&A ratio decreased to 7.5%, down 0.9 percentage points year-on-year [7]. - The net profit margin expanded by 0.2 percentage points to 4.6% in FY25 [8]. Future Guidance - For FY26, revenue is projected to be RMB 20,733 million, with a gross profit margin expected to further expand to 17.6% [10]. - The report anticipates a continued high vacancy rate in new homes, which may pressure property management fee collections in the coming years [7][8]. Share Performance and Market Data - The market capitalization of Greentown Service is approximately HK$13.77 billion, with a 52-week high of HK$5.23 and a low of HK$3.94 [4]. - The average trading volume over the last three months is HK$14 million [4]. Shareholding Structure - The largest shareholder is Orchid Garden Investment, holding 31.9% of the shares, followed by Lilac International Investment with 13.3% [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for ZhongAn, with a target price revised down to HK$18 from HK$23, indicating a potential upside of 36.9% from the current price of HK$13.15 [2][19]. Core Insights - ZhongAn reported a net profit of RMB1.1 billion for FY25, an 83% increase year-on-year, although it fell short of the estimated RMB1.2 billion due to a decline in net earnings in the second half of the year [1][10]. - The adjusted net profit reached RMB1.8 billion, up 198% year-on-year, aided by a one-off impairment loss of approximately RMB0.7 billion on its joint venture, ZhongAn International [1]. - The combined ratio (CoR) improved to 95.8%, better than the estimated 96.6%, driven by strong performance in the Health and Auto segments [1][10]. - Gross written premiums (GWP) grew by 6.9% year-on-year to RMB35.7 billion, primarily supported by the Auto segment, which saw a 35% increase, and the Health segment, which grew by 23% [1][10]. - ZA Bank achieved its first full-year profit of HK$17.27 million, with net revenue increasing by 62.7% to HK$892 million [1][10]. Financial Performance - For FY25, net profit was RMB1.1 billion, with an EPS of RMB0.70, while the consensus EPS for FY26E is projected at RMB0.84 [9][10]. - The combined ratio is expected to improve slightly to 95.6% in FY26E and 95.4% in FY27E, reflecting a more prudent outlook on underwriting margins [9][10]. - The report anticipates a further expansion in ZA Bank's net profit in double digits for FY26, supported by scalability and a diversified product suite [1][10]. Valuation Metrics - The new target price of HK$18 implies a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.1x for FY26E, which is close to the three-year mean [1][11]. - The valuation is based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) analysis, including 1.0x P/B for the property and casualty (P&C) business and 1.8x P/B for ZA Bank, compared to global listed peers [1][11].

Company Insights - China Hongqiao (1378 HK) is expected to achieve a net profit of RMB 22.6 billion in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1%, which is 5% lower than expectations and Bloomberg consensus [2] - The company announced a final dividend of HKD 1.65 per share, with a payout ratio of approximately 66% [2] - The aluminum price is projected to rise in 2026 due to supply constraints, with a 1% increase in aluminum price expected to boost profits by approximately 2.3% [5] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,277, down 0.88% for the day and down 1.38% year-to-date [2] - The S&P 500 index fell by approximately 1.5%, while the Nasdaq dropped about 2%, indicating a broader market decline [4] - The offshore RMB weakened, falling below the 6.9 mark against the USD, influenced by a strong dollar and pressure from US-China interest rate differentials [4] Sector Analysis - The automotive sector, particularly companies like XPeng Motors (XPEV US/9868 HK), is focusing on new models and exports, with a target to double exports to 90,000 units in 2026 [6] - The company is also planning to mass-produce humanoid robots by the end of 2026, which could serve as a catalyst for stock price increases [6] - Tuhu (9690 HK) is prioritizing market share over high profit growth, with a target to open 1,000 new stores in 2026, benefiting from industry consolidation [8] Financial Projections - Sany International (631 HK) expects a significant profit increase in 2025, but regular profit calculations suggest a decline of 10% [5] - Wei Shi Jia Jie (856 HK) reported a 10% increase in total revenue for FY25, with net profit rising by 29%, driven by effective cost control and high-margin self-developed products [8] - AIA Group (1299 HK) announced a share buyback plan of $1.7 billion, exceeding expectations, and raised its target price to HKD 112 [12][13]