高盛闭门会-铜价单日大涨 10%的原因，结构性机会和宏 观叙事 20260131 摘要 铜多头头寸年初分散至其他金属，微观交易员对铜空头接受度提高，但 铜价突破 13,400 美元后买盘涌入，虽与基本面尤其是库存不符，但长 期需求趋势提供了解释，短期内涨势或持续至持仓结构恢复正常。 镍、锌、铝交易活跃度上升，主要在铜多头头寸上获利了结，当前行情 或仅至中段。基本面方面，未来库存上升有一定道理，但供应故事将在 6 个月至 1 年后展开，做多参与度低于预期，主要受 CTA 行为驱动。 锌精矿端供应略紧，建筑领域需求疲软但出口渠道表现较好，锌需求好 于预期，基本面在金属中表现最佳，库存状况无需担忧。高频交易相关 消息对价格走势影响程度令人意外，保证金额度调整未产生显著影响。 短期波动率全线飙升，Gamma 最受关注，短期合约价格较两天前基准 水平上涨约三分之一，接近过去五年历史极值区间。做空 Gamma 风险 较高，需重新定位长期观察变动，风险逆转策略仍具价值。 宏观层面驱动力包括降息、财政扩张、AI 资本开支热潮以及货币贬值， 通胀回落、经济增长回升形成积极支撑，风险偏好处于高位，但宏观环 境向好，降息和财政刺激 ...

Group 1 - The current trading price of COMEX silver is reported at 91.81 USD/oz, down 1.23% from the opening price of 92.80 USD/oz, with a high of 92.94 USD/oz and a low of 90.68 USD/oz, indicating a bearish short-term trend [1] - March silver futures show a clear technical advantage for bulls, with the next upward target being a closing price breakthrough of the key resistance level at 100.00 USD/oz; bears aim to push prices below the strong support level of 85.00 USD/oz [2] - The first resistance level is at the historical high of 95.78 USD/oz, followed by 96.00 USD/oz; the next support levels are today's low of 92.115 USD/oz and then 91.00 USD/oz [2] Group 2 - The attendance of key figures such as Cook and Powell at the hearing highlights the seriousness of the case, indicating concerns within the Federal Reserve system about potential political interference if Trump wins [2] - Cook emphasized the importance of the Federal Reserve's independence in setting key interest rates based on evidence and independent judgment, which is crucial for fulfilling its mandate of price stability and full employment [2]

Group 1 - COMEX silver is currently trading above $93.11, with an opening price of $90.61 per ounce and a current price of $93.35, reflecting a 3.79% increase [1] - The highest price reached today was $94.36, while the lowest was $90.50, indicating a bullish short-term trend for COMEX silver [1] Group 2 - March silver futures show a clear advantage for bulls, with the next upward price target being a closing price above the strong technical resistance level of $100.00 [3] - The next downward price target for bears is a closing price below the strong support level of $80.00, with the first resistance level at the overnight historical high of $93.70 and the next at $94.00 [3] - The next support levels are at Thursday's low of $86.125 and then at $85.00 [3]

美国在该地区的军事力量主要集中于禁毒行动，尽管其所集结的火力远超出此类任务所需。自9月以 来，美军已对加勒比海和太平洋海域涉嫌运毒的船只实施了至少21次打击，造成至少83人死亡。 【要闻回顾】 美国总统特朗普在当地时间周四表示，美国将"很快"开始采取陆上行动，以拦截涉嫌贩毒的委内瑞拉人 员。 11月28日，COMEX白银库存录得14207.21吨，较上一日减少40.89 吨；comex白银上周五（11月28日） 收报57.09美元/盎司，上涨6.06%，comex白银价格日内最高上探至57.24美元/盎司，最低触及53.22美元/ 盎司。 最新comex白银库存数据： | 日期 | comex白银库存量(吨) | 增持/减持（吨） | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-11-28 | 14207.21 | -40.89 | | 2025-11-26 | 14248.10 | -35.79 | "你们可能已经注意到，贩毒者不再愿意通过海上运输，而我们也将开始从陆上进行拦截。陆上行动更 容易开展，相关行动很快会启动，"特朗普在与美国军方人员视频通话时如此表示。 ...

Group 1 - COMEX gold futures experienced a decline on September 24, following a week where gold reached historical highs, indicating normal profit-taking behavior in the market [1] - The latest price for December gold futures is reported at $3,798.20, with a decrease of $17.50, while spot gold prices are approximately $30 lower [1] Group 2 - Global stock markets showed mixed trends overnight, with the US stock market reaching historical highs on Monday and expected to continue a slight upward trend during the New York trading session [2] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell highlighted risks in the US labor market and inflation outlook, describing the current situation as "extremely challenging" without signaling any specific direction for the upcoming October FOMC meeting [2] Group 3 - From a technical perspective, December gold futures show a clear advantage for bulls, with the next upward target being to push the futures closing price above the key resistance level of $3,900.00 [3] - The first resistance level is identified at this week's high of $3,824.60, with further resistance at $3,850.00; the first support level is at Tuesday's low of $3,772.40, with additional support at this week's low of $3,718.10 [3]

Group 1 - Trump has shifted his stance on the Russia-Ukraine issue, indicating readiness to impose tariffs if Russia is unwilling to reach an agreement, and asserting that NATO countries should shoot down Russian planes entering NATO airspace [1] - The European Commission has implemented the 19th round of sanctions against Russia, which includes banning the import of Russian liquefied natural gas and expanding sanctions to third-country refineries and oil traders [1] - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4%-4.25%, with officials indicating that future policy adjustments will be data-driven and flexible [1][2] Group 2 - Gold prices have surged, reaching a new high of $3,790.9 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 40%, while silver has also seen significant gains, rising over 50% [4] - The recent bullish trend in gold has seen prices rise nearly $450 from a low of $3,311, with potential targets for further increases set between $3,850 and $3,880 based on historical price movements [5] - The gold market is currently experiencing strong upward momentum, but caution is advised as it approaches resistance levels, with potential for a pullback [7][9]

Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic environment since August 2025 has been characterized by a strong performance in high-growth sectors, particularly in China's technology stocks, alongside a backdrop of rising global bond yields and shifting currency dynamics [1][3][4]. Group 1: Asset Performance - In August 2025, major asset performances ranked as follows: Sci-Tech 50 > ChiNext Index > CSI 300 > Gold > Hang Seng Tech > Dow Jones > LME Copper > European Stocks > NASDAQ > Hang Seng Index > RMB > 0 > China Bond > Nanhua Composite > USD > Crude Oil > Long VIX [1][14]. - Risk assets generally rose in August, with notable performance in Chinese assets, a concurrent appreciation of the RMB, and pressure on government bonds [2][14]. - The domestic equity market saw a broad increase, with the Wind All A Index rising by 10.9% in August, while the 10-year government bond yield increased by 13.4 basis points to 1.84% [2][27]. Group 2: Macro Trading Themes - The primary macro trading themes since August 2025 include a "high-growth narrative" led by the Sci-Tech 50 and ChiNext Index, a "rate cut trade" in the U.S. following downward revisions in employment data, and a rise in "risk aversion" reflected in increasing global bond yields [3][57]. - The U.S. employment data revision has opened a window for potential Fed rate cuts, influencing various asset classes to align with this "rate cut trade" [3][57]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The macroeconomic indicators show that the U.S. hard data has remained stable while soft data has slightly improved since August, contrasting with Europe and Japan, where economic outlooks are mixed [4][70]. - China's economic indicators suggest a slowdown, with an estimated actual GDP growth of approximately 4.76% for August, aligning with seasonal economic characteristics [4][70]. Group 4: Real Estate Market - The real estate market in China has shown a narrowing year-on-year decline in sales, with second-hand housing performing better than new homes, indicating a trend of "price for volume" [2][42]. - The rental yield in major cities has remained above the 30-year government bond yield, although the leading margin has narrowed compared to previous periods [2][42]. Group 5: Market Volatility and Sentiment - The volatility in the market has seen a decrease in August, with the number of daily ranking changes among 19 asset classes dropping from 124 to 114 [15][62]. - The VIX index has shown signs of recovery, indicating increased market uncertainty and potential adjustments in global risk assets [15][63].

The idea is that a lot of traders here in the US thought that these tariffs on Swiss goods wouldn't be applied to gold because you need to trade uh 400 ounce bars for central banks, 100 ounce bars for uh the comx and kilo bars in Asia. Um apparently there are going to be tariffs on those uh gold bars. >> Exactly.That's what they thought. um they had plans uh and then they got a letter. I have the letter here.So basically maybe just one step back, Switzerland has a big trading surplus with the United States. ...

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