金属与材料|有色金属 行业定期报告 证券分析师 田源 S1350524030001 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 田庆争 S1350524050001 tianqingzheng@huayuanstock.com 项祈瑞 S1350524040002 xiangqirui@huayuanstock.com 联系人 板块表现: 相关研究 2024 年 06 月 30 日 美元走强铜金震荡调整,静待下周 6 月非农指引 看好(维持) ——有色金属 大宗金属周报(24/6/24-24/6/30) 投资要点: ➢ 受美元指数走强及美联储理事鲍曼发言影响,铜金震荡调整,静待下周 6 月非农数据指引。铜金中长期逻 辑仍未改变,仍建议继续关注贵金属、低冶炼自给率的铜和高氧化铝自给率的电解铝板块,小金属建议关 注:钨、锰、锑和铟,同时可关注滞涨品种如镍和镁等。 ➢ 贵金属板块:美元走强金价震荡调整,等待下周非农数据指引。伦敦现货黄金下跌 0.18%、上期所黄金下 跌 1.65%,伦敦现货白银下跌 3.50%、上期所白银下跌 4.76%,钯金下跌 1.92%,铂金上涨 1.40%。受 美元指数走强及美联储 ...

医药生物 行业定期报告 证券分析师 刘闯 S1350524030002 liuchuang@huayuanstock.com 联系人 李强 S1350524040001 liqiang01@huayuanstock.com 板块表现: 相关研究 2024 年 06 月 30 日 医药行业周报:否极泰来,积极布局潜力品种 看好(维持) ——医药行业(24/6/24-24/6/30) 投资要点: 近期医药市场表现分析:近期医药板块情绪较弱,原因可能系:1)当前院内整顿持续,市场 担心严肃医疗复苏相对疲软;2)医保端推动全国范围内的"四同药品"比价,市场担忧药店 以及部分院外品种市场会受到影响;3)整体市场环境影响,微盘股持续超跌等。但是,在行 业短期承压下,仍有部分领域发展呈持续向好趋势:1)创新药:国家持续鼓励创新药发展, 近期多款国产重磅创新药获批,康方生物依沃西单抗、迪哲医药的戈利昔替尼、海思科的考格 列汀等,和黄医药的呋喹替尼在欧盟获批上市,看好创新药大品种持续兑现催化;2)GLP-1 大投资潜力。 产业链:近期催化不断,诺泰生物 24H1 业绩预告大超预期,国家卫健委等 16 个部门印发《"体 重管理年 ...

交通运输 行业定期报告 投资要点: 证券分析师 孙延 S1350524050003 sunyan01@huayuanstock.com 王惠武 S1350524060001 wanghuiwu@huayuanstock.com 板块表现: 相关研究 2024 年 06 月 30 日 供应链不稳推动造船需求,重视快递回调后配置价值 看好(维持) ——2024 年 6 月 24 日-6 月 30 日交通运输行业周报 一、行业动态跟踪 ➢ 航运船舶: 1)地中海航运(MSC)向船公司同行喊话,或将推动大量造船。6 月 28 日,地中海航运 (MSC)执行副总裁 Bud Darr 在曼哈顿的 Marine Money Week 会议上表示,航运公司 应为供应链可能面临的更多冲击做好准备,尽管存在供应过剩的担忧,MSC 仍敦促班轮公 司投资更多船舶。Darr 称,不同的危机似乎正成为"新常态",航运公司必须具备在需要 时增加运力的灵活性。MSC 近年来一直在购买二手船舶,并进行涉及 100 艘船舶的大型 新造船计划,目前拥有 597.6 万标准箱的船队,市场份额为 19.9%。为更好应对意外情况 ,MSC 接管了全球 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (Maintain) [1] Core Viewpoints - In May 2024, the total electricity consumption in society increased by 7.2% year-on-year, with the first, second, and third industries, as well as urban and rural residents' electricity consumption growing by 10.3%, 6.8%, 9.9%, and 5.5% respectively [1] - From January to May 2024, the cumulative electricity consumption increased by 8.6% year-on-year, with the first, second, and third industries, as well as urban and rural residents growing by 9.7%, 7.2%, 12.7%, and 9.9% respectively [1] - The report indicates a significant improvement in water supply in May, with a narrowing decline in wind power generation and a shift from growth to decline in thermal power generation [1] - The report highlights that the electricity supply situation is expected to be tight during the summer peak demand period, with the highest electricity load predicted to increase by 100-130 million kilowatts compared to 2023 [1] Summary by Sections Electricity Consumption Data - In May 2024, the total electricity consumption increased by 7.2% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase compared to April [1] - The cumulative electricity consumption from January to May 2024 showed an 8.6% year-on-year growth [1] Power Generation Analysis - In May, the industrial thermal power generation decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, while hydropower generation increased by 38.6% [1] - The report notes that the average compound growth rate over two years remains stable, indicating strong energy demand [1] Summer Peak Demand Outlook - The report anticipates a severe electricity supply situation during the summer peak, with local areas potentially facing tight supply conditions due to extreme weather [1] - The report suggests that the electricity supply will be challenging to increase rapidly in the short term, necessitating demand-side management and inter-regional electricity exchanges [1] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on conventional power equipment, grid equipment, and demand response sectors, highlighting specific companies for investment [1]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [4][13][22]. Core Views - The company is a leading innovative traditional Chinese medicine enterprise, focusing on the "338 Product Creation Plan" to drive steady growth [4][6][22]. - The company aims to develop three products with over 1 billion RMB in sales, three products with over 500 million RMB, and eight products exceeding 100 million RMB in sales over the next 5-10 years [6][40]. - The company has a rich pipeline of innovative traditional Chinese medicine products, which are expected to become new profit growth points [23][36]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company has implemented strategic reforms since 2021, focusing on its pharmaceutical core business, resulting in accelerated growth [6][22]. - In 2023, the company achieved total revenue of 1.629 billion RMB, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8% from 2020 to 2023 [22]. 2. Product Matrix and Growth Areas - The company has a diverse product portfolio across several therapeutic areas, with significant revenue contributions from cardiovascular, orthopedic, pediatric, respiratory, gynecological, and anti-infection drugs, accounting for 79% of total revenue in 2023 [6][22]. - The orthopedic segment is expected to see substantial growth, with projected revenue CAGR of 22% from 2024 to 2026 [12][58]. - The cardiovascular segment is also expected to grow steadily, with a projected CAGR of 17% during the same period [12][58]. 3. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company forecasts net profits of 244 million RMB, 296 million RMB, and 366 million RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with growth rates of 30.7%, 21.2%, and 23.7% [4][13][22]. - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected to be 18x, 15x, and 13x for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 [13][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China General Nuclear Power Corporation (003816.SZ) [4] Core Views - The company plans to issue A-share convertible bonds to raise up to 4.9 billion yuan for the construction of the Guangdong Lufeng Nuclear Power Plant units 5 and 6, which are expected to commence operations in 2027 and 2028, respectively [4] - The issuance of convertible bonds is expected to optimize the financial structure, with an estimated dilution of EPS by about 2% at the current price [4] - Nuclear power units are the core profit-generating assets for the company, supporting steady growth in electricity sales [4] - The company achieved operating revenue of 19.181 billion yuan in Q1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.88%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.604 billion yuan, up 3.38% year-on-year [4] - The company has six nuclear power units under construction and four awaiting approval, indicating stable growth in nuclear power capacity from 2024 to 2030 [4] - The company is actively planning asset acquisition for nuclear power projects in Huizhou and Cangnan, with a commitment to inject these assets into the listed company within five years of project commencement [4] - Profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are maintained at 11.87 billion, 12.4 billion, and 13.07 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.7%, 4.4%, and 5.4% respectively [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s total revenue for 2023 was 82.549 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -0.33% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was 10.725 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.62% [5] - The company’s total assets as of March 31, 2024, were 419.2 billion yuan, with a net asset value of 168.4 billion yuan [5] Future Outlook - The company expects to maintain a steady growth trajectory in nuclear power generation, with plans to commission new units annually from 2025 to 2030 [4] - The anticipated dividend payout ratio for 2024-2026 is 45%, leading to dividend yields of 2.6%, 2.7%, and 2.9% respectively [4]

Investment Rating - The report recommends a diversified low-covariance asset portfolio including companies such as Changjiang Electric, Huaneng Hydropower, Guotou Electric, and others, indicating a positive investment outlook for the utility sector [2][4]. Core Insights - The electricity consumption in May showed a robust year-on-year growth of 7.2%, with significant contributions from various sectors, indicating strong energy demand [6][8]. - The report highlights the severe electricity supply-demand situation expected in the summer, driven by high temperatures and increased electricity load, with predictions of peak load increases of 10-13 million kilowatts compared to 2023 [11][14]. - The report emphasizes the need for reliable power supply sources, particularly coal power, to meet the growing electricity demand, as renewable sources face limitations [14][15]. Summary by Sections 1. Electricity Consumption Trends - In May, the total electricity consumption increased by 7.2% year-on-year, with the first, second, and third industries growing by 10.3%, 6.8%, and 9.9% respectively [6][8]. - Cumulatively, from January to May, electricity consumption grew by 8.6%, with the first, second, and third industries showing increases of 9.7%, 7.2%, and 12.7% respectively [6][8]. 2. Supply-Demand Situation - The report forecasts a challenging electricity supply-demand balance for the summer, with the highest load expected to increase significantly due to high temperatures and a strong base load from previous years [11][12]. - The report notes that the installed capacity of stable power sources has not kept pace with demand, necessitating reliance on coal power to ensure supply adequacy [12][14]. 3. Recommended Investment Portfolio Performance - The recommended portfolio, which includes companies like Changjiang Electric and Huaneng Hydropower, outperformed the market indices, with a 1.11% increase compared to a decline in major indices [16]. - Year-to-date, the recommended portfolio has risen by 29.49%, significantly outperforming the broader market [16]. 4. Key Company Valuations - The report provides specific buy ratings for companies such as Huaneng International and China Power, with expected earnings growth and favorable price-to-earnings ratios [19][20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the utility sector, specifically in electricity [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a strong growth in electricity consumption, with May 2024 showing a year-on-year increase of 7.2% in total electricity usage. The first five months of 2024 saw an overall increase of 8.6% compared to the same period in 2023 [4][7]. - The report emphasizes the severe power supply and demand situation expected during the summer of 2024, predicting a peak load increase of 10-13 million kilowatts compared to 2023, primarily due to high temperatures and a high base of electricity consumption [12][15]. - Recommendations include a diversified portfolio of low-covariance assets, focusing on companies like Yangtze Power, Huaneng Hydropower, and China Nuclear Power, among others [4][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Electricity Consumption Trends - In May 2024, total electricity consumption increased by 7.2% year-on-year, with the first, second, and third industries growing by 10.3%, 6.8%, and 9.9%, respectively [7]. - Cumulative electricity consumption from January to May 2024 rose by 8.6%, with significant contributions from all sectors [7][9]. - The report notes a significant improvement in water supply for hydropower generation, with May's hydropower output increasing by 38.6% year-on-year [9][10]. 2. Summer Power Supply and Demand Challenges - The report warns of a tight power supply situation during the summer, with the highest electricity load expected to increase significantly due to high temperatures [12][15]. - The report indicates that the installed power generation capacity has not kept pace with the rising demand, with only 38.33 million kilowatts added from August 2023 to April 2024 [13][15]. - It suggests that coal power will need to maintain high growth rates to ensure adequate electricity supply [15]. 3. Recommended Investment Portfolio Performance - The recommended portfolio, which includes Yangtze Power, Huaneng Hydropower, and others, saw a weekly increase of 1.11%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.26 percentage points [17]. - Year-to-date, the recommended portfolio has risen by 29.49%, significantly outperforming the broader market indices [17]. 4. Key Company Valuations - The report provides a detailed valuation of key companies in the sector, with recommendations for companies like China Power and Huaneng International, indicating a "Buy" or "Hold" rating based on their projected earnings and price-to-earnings ratios [19][20].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5][7]. Core Views - The recombinant collagen industry is experiencing high demand, with significant growth potential in market penetration. The medical dressing and functional skincare markets are projected to grow substantially, with expected CAGRs of 28.8% and 55.0% from 2022 to 2027, respectively [3][4]. - The company is a leader in recombinant collagen, having successfully developed and mass-produced recombinant collagen products. Its flagship brands, Kefu Mei and Keli Jin, are key revenue drivers, with a revenue CAGR of 38.5% from 2019 to 2023 [3][4][19]. - The company's competitive advantage is built on a robust product, channel, and R&D strategy, with a strong focus on professional skincare and a well-established sales network [4][9]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is the first globally to achieve mass production of recombinant collagen products, focusing on functional skincare, medical devices, and special medical foods. It has eight brands and over 100 SKUs [15][19]. - The management team is experienced, with a strong background in biotechnology and a proven track record in the industry [16][17]. Market Potential - The recombinant collagen market is expected to grow significantly, with the medical dressing and functional skincare markets projected to reach $25.5 billion and $64.5 billion by 2027, respectively [3][4][25]. - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on this growth due to its innovative products and strong market presence [9][28]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 35.3 billion yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 48.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 13.7 billion yuan, reflecting a 41.7% increase [19][20]. - The report forecasts revenues of 47.0 billion, 60.8 billion, and 75.6 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 18.6 billion, 23.1 billion, and 28.2 billion yuan [5][7]. Product and R&D Strategy - The company has a diverse product matrix, with a strong focus on high-demand skincare products. The flagship brands are performing well, contributing to a 99.5% revenue share from professional skincare products in 2023 [22][23]. - The R&D efforts are robust, with 93 patents filed and a strong pipeline of new products expected to drive future growth [4][8].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (Maintain) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a continuous decline in lithium carbonate prices, with a focus on opportunities in soft magnetic and copper alloy materials [3] - The energy metals sector is experiencing a fluctuating price trend, with electrolytic cobalt showing signs of recovery [3] - The report suggests monitoring companies such as Tianqi Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium, and others for potential investment opportunities [3] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - In May, China's power battery installation volume reached 39.9 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 41.2% and a month-on-month increase of 12.6% [7] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has revised regulations to encourage technological innovation and reduce production costs in the lithium-ion battery industry [7] 2. Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate price decreased by 3.66% to 94,850 CNY/ton, while hydroxide lithium fell by 4.35% to 84,600 CNY/ton [12] - The production of lithium carbonate increased by 18% month-on-month in May, reaching 62,538 tons [3] - Cobalt sulfate price dropped by 2.27% to 30,200 CNY/ton, with a year-to-date decline of 5.34% [12] 3. New Materials - The report maintains a positive outlook on soft magnetic and copper alloy materials due to their benefits from the development of the electronic and power industries [3] - In the new materials sector, the price of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 3.12% to 40,400 CNY/ton, while the price of ternary cathode 622 fell by 4.18% to 126,000 CNY/ton [42][43] - The average price of silver paste (front) increased by 5.04% to 7,925 CNY/kg [50]