Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (First time) [4] Core Viewpoints - Molybdenum prices remain stable with a strong demand ahead of the Spring Festival, with recent transaction prices for molybdenum concentrate stabilizing around 3600 CNY/ton and molybdenum iron prices maintaining above 230,000 CNY/ton. The market is active with significant support for prices [5][12] - Tungsten prices are steadily rising, with black tungsten concentrate prices increasing from 143,500 CNY/ton to 143,750 CNY/ton, and ammonium paratungstate (APT) prices rising from 212,000 CNY/ton to 212,750 CNY/ton. However, market transaction volumes remain stable due to differing price expectations between buyers and sellers [5][17] - Tin market shows volatility, with SHFE tin prices experiencing a fluctuation of -2.91% followed by a recovery to 249,900 CNY/ton. The refined tin output decreased by 4.41% in December, and the market sentiment is cautious due to low inventory levels [5][22] - Antimony prices are expected to remain stable domestically, with the domestic price gap exceeding 160,000 CNY/ton compared to international prices. The main driver for price increases is expected to be changes in import and export policies [5][28] Summary by Sections 1. Recent Price Trends - Molybdenum concentrate price is stable at 3605 CNY/ton, and molybdenum iron price is at 231,000 CNY/ton [11][12] - Black tungsten concentrate price increased by 0.70% to 143,000 CNY/ton, and APT price increased by 0.95% to 212,800 CNY/ton [11][17] - SHFE tin price increased by 2.34% to 249,900 CNY/ton, while LME tin price increased by 2.71% to 2.94 USD/ton [11][22] - Antimony ingot price decreased by 0.70% to 142,000 CNY/ton, while antimony concentrate price remained stable at 121,000 CNY/ton [11][28] 2. Molybdenum - Molybdenum prices are stable with strong demand leading up to the Spring Festival, with significant market activity and support for prices [5][12] 3. Tungsten - Tungsten prices are on a steady rise, but transaction volumes are stable due to differing expectations between buyers and sellers [5][17] 4. Tin - Tin market is characterized by volatility, with cautious market sentiment due to low inventory levels and fluctuating prices [5][22] 5. Antimony - Antimony prices are expected to remain stable, with significant price gaps between domestic and international markets driven by policy changes [5][28]

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Positive** rating for the media and internet industry [4] Core Views - TikTok's potential ban in the US has led to a surge in traffic for Xiaohongshu (Little Red Book) as users seek alternative platforms [4][5] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring overseas policy changes and traffic shifts for community-based apps like TikTok and Xiaohongshu [4][6] - The integration of AI and AR technologies is accelerating, with potential applications in various industries, particularly in media and entertainment [9] - The report emphasizes the growth of the card and toy collectibles market, particularly in offline high-growth sectors [10] - The gaming industry is expected to see value revaluation driven by new product cycles and the opening of new gaming platforms by major tech companies [10] - The film industry is anticipated to recover in 2025, driven by high-quality content releases during key holiday periods [12] Sector Performance - The media sector (Shenwan) ranked **2nd** among all industries with a **6.16%** increase from January 13 to January 17, 2025 [17] - Sub-sectors such as advertising, film, and digital media led the gains, while broadcasting, gaming, and publishing lagged [18] - Top-performing stocks in the A-share market included **Tianxia Show** (39.58%), **Yaowang Technology** (34.23%), and **Fuchun Co** (31.6%) [18] - In the Hong Kong market, **Weimob Group** (27.66%) and **Chizicheng Technology** (14.46%) were among the top performers [21] Key Industry Developments - TikTok's ban in the US was temporarily halted, with the decision deferred to the incoming Trump administration [22] - Xiaohongshu surged to **2nd place** on the US iOS free app rankings, driven by TikTok's restrictions and its seamless content integration for overseas users [23] - Nintendo announced the **Switch 2**, featuring magnetic controllers and backward compatibility, with a release expected in April 2025 [24] - The State Council released 18 measures to boost cultural and tourism consumption, focusing on trendy domestic products and cultural collaborations [25] Company Performance Highlights - **Mango TV** reported a net profit of **1.25-1.61 billion yuan** for 2024, a decline of **54.72%-64.85%** year-on-year [27] - **Huoli Technology** saw a significant increase in net profit, with a year-on-year growth of **53.97%-77.07%** [30] - **Aofei Entertainment** and **Tom Cat** reported losses, with net profits declining by **356.29%-409.69%** and **660-860 million yuan**, respectively [25][26] AI and AR Applications - AI technology is rapidly evolving, with applications in 3D modeling, animation, and AIGC tools, driving industry transformation [9] - Companies like **Kunlun Wanwei**, **Focus Technology**, and **BlueFocus** are highlighted for their advancements in AI and AR applications [9] - The report suggests that AI-driven innovations will enhance user engagement and ARPU, opening new growth opportunities for the industry [56] Gaming Industry - The gaming sector is expected to benefit from new product cycles and the expansion of gaming platforms by companies like Facebook, Discord, and YouTube [10] - Key companies to watch include **Tencent**, **NetEase**, **37 Interactive Entertainment**, and **Perfect World** [10] - Popular games like **Honor of Kings** and **CrossFire** dominated the iOS gaming charts, with **Golden Shovel** rising to **2nd place** on January 17 [36] Film Industry - The film market is expected to recover in 2025, driven by high-quality releases during the Spring Festival and holiday periods [12] - Key films to watch include **Nezha: The Devil Boy Comes to the Sea** and other major releases during the holiday season [12] - Companies like **Light Chaser Animation**, **Bona Film**, and **Wanda Film** are highlighted for their potential in the film sector [12] Social and Community Platforms - Xiaohongshu's overseas growth is driven by its seamless content integration and the influx of users from TikTok [6] - The report recommends monitoring the strategies of Chinese social and community apps in overseas markets, particularly in advertising, MCNs, and content export [6] - Key companies to watch include **Tianxia Show**, **Gravity Media**, and **BlueFocus** [6] E-commerce and WeChat Ecosystem - WeChat's e-commerce ecosystem is expanding, with new features like **Gift Sending** enhancing user engagement [7] - The integration of WeChat Shop with video accounts, mini-programs, and search functions is expected to drive growth in the e-commerce sector [7] - Companies like **Qingmu Technology**, **Yiwang Yichuang**, and **Weimob** are highlighted for their roles in the WeChat ecosystem [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The shipping industry is experiencing a rapid increase in oil transportation rates, while express delivery demand remains robust [3] - The airline sector is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery, with a long-term supply-demand imbalance driving growth [13] - The express delivery sector shows resilient demand, with terminal prices at historically low levels, indicating limited downside [16] Summary by Sections Shipping and Vessels - The oil tanker newbuilding orders are limited, and the aging fleet is creating supply tightness, with oil transport demand expected to benefit from increased non-OPEC production [13] - The BDTI index for oil transportation increased by 8.5% to 883 points, with VLCC TCE rising by 86.5% [6] - The BDI index rose by 5.6% to 1065 points, driven by the performance of bulk carriers [5] Aviation and Airports - Domestic aircraft will operate in Vietnam, indicating potential growth opportunities in the region [9] - The overall passenger transport volume for civil aviation reached approximately 0.56 billion people in November 2024, a year-on-year increase of 15.2% [41] - Boeing is expected to deliver 348 commercial aircraft in 2024, which is only 45.4% of Airbus's delivery volume [10] Express Delivery and Logistics - The express delivery sector saw a year-on-year increase in business volume, with major companies reporting significant growth in revenue and volume [12] - The total express delivery volume reached approximately 43.55 billion pieces, a 10.34% increase week-on-week [11] - Major express companies like SF Express and YTO Express are expected to benefit from cyclical recovery and cost reduction efforts [16] Road and Rail - In November 2024, road passenger volume increased by 146.48% year-on-year, while freight volume rose by 3.73% [38] - The railway passenger volume also saw a year-on-year increase of 8.76% [38] Market Performance - From January 13 to January 17, 2025, the transportation sector index rose by 2.81%, outperforming the overall market [20] - The logistics sector showed a 3.91% increase, while the shipping sector rose by 4.28% [20]

Group 1 - The report highlights the recent U.S. export ban on high-parameter flow cytometers and mass spectrometers, which could significantly impact the Chinese market, where imported brands dominate [3][10] - In 2023, the Chinese flow cytometer market reached approximately 1 billion yuan, with a projected annual growth rate of 18.3% from 2023 to 2028, indicating substantial potential for domestic alternatives [12][14] - The mass spectrometer market in China has maintained an import dependency of over 70% since 2017, with the market size growing from 5.85 billion yuan in 2015 to 18.15 billion yuan in 2022, suggesting a strong opportunity for local manufacturers [25][24] Group 2 - The report notes that the North Exchange's technology growth stocks experienced a median price increase of 7.38% from January 13 to January 17, 2025, with 133 out of 145 companies showing gains [45][46] - The information technology sector's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio increased by 16% to a median of 49.7X, reflecting a positive trend in valuation within the industry [50][60] - The electronic equipment sector's P/E ratio rose from 39.8X to 42.8X, indicating a growing market confidence in this area [52][56] Group 3 - The report identifies 12 companies in the North Exchange involved in scientific instruments, spanning life sciences, electronic measurement, and other fields, highlighting their diverse applications and market potential [43][44] - The R&D expenditure in China reached 33,357.1 billion yuan in 2023, with an 8.4% year-on-year increase, underscoring the government's commitment to enhancing domestic technological capabilities [36][41] - Policies promoting domestic production and innovation in scientific instruments are expected to create long-term opportunities for the industry, as indicated by recent government initiatives [40][42]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the utility sector is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - In December, electricity demand was weak, but hydropower, nuclear, and wind energy showed improvement [5][9] - The National Grid is expected to invest over 650 billion yuan in 2025, marking a significant increase in investment [6][24] Summary by Sections Electricity Sector - In December 2024, the national industrial power generation was 846.2 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%, with a decline in growth rate compared to November [6][9] - Hydropower generation increased by 5.5% in December, while thermal power saw a decline of 2.6% [11][12] - Nuclear power generation grew by 11.4%, and solar power generation surged by 28.5% [11][12] Coal and Gas Sector - In December, both domestic coal production and imports increased, contributing to a decline in coal prices [15][18] - The coal production in December reached 440 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.2% [18][20] - Natural gas production was 21.8 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, while imports decreased by 7.9% [21] Power Equipment Sector - The National Grid's investment in 2025 is projected to exceed 650 billion yuan, driven by the construction of high-voltage direct current projects [24][27] - The number of high-voltage direct current projects is expected to significantly increase in 2025, with five new projects planned [27][28] - Key recommended companies include XJ Electric, Rikon Technology, and Huaming Equipment [24][28]

Group 1: Market Performance - TSMC reported Q4 2024 revenue of $26.88 billion, a year-over-year increase of 37.0% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 14.4%[14] - The gross margin for TSMC in Q4 2024 was 59.0%, up 6.0 percentage points year-over-year and 1.2 percentage points quarter-over-quarter[14] - The Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 5.1% during the week of January 13 to January 17, 2025, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by 2.4 percentage points[7] Group 2: Cryptocurrency Market Insights - The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies reached $3.51 trillion as of January 17, 2025, up from $3.27 trillion the previous week[19] - Daily trading volume in the cryptocurrency market was $155.84 billion, accounting for 4.44% of the total market capitalization[19] - On January 17, 2025, the Fear and Greed Index for cryptocurrencies was at 57, indicating a neutral market sentiment[20] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - AI accelerator revenue is expected to double in 2025, contributing nearly 15% to TSMC's total revenue in 2024, with a projected CAGR of 45% over the next five years[15] - The recent liquidity improvement due to the U.S. debt ceiling approaching is seen as a favorable window for risk assets, particularly in precious metals, cryptocurrencies, and uranium sectors[4] - The net inflow for cryptocurrency ETFs reached $1.863 billion this week, with over $900 million on a single day[24]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the profitability of electrolytic aluminum is gradually recovering and expanding, with a continuous recommendation for the electrolytic aluminum sector [3][4] - The report emphasizes the macroeconomic factors influencing copper prices, including the weaker-than-expected U.S. core CPI and the resulting expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5] - The report notes a significant decline in alumina prices due to increased supply, while electrolytic aluminum prices are rising, leading to improved profitability in the sector [5] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The U.S. December core CPI was reported at 3.2%, slightly below expectations, indicating a potential easing of inflationary pressures [12] - The report mentions that the U.S. retail sales for December were also lower than expected, which may impact demand for metals [12] 2. Industrial Metals Copper - Copper prices increased from 75,000 CNY/ton to 76,500 CNY/ton, driven by macroeconomic factors [5] - The operating rate of electrolytic copper rods was reported at 70.46%, a decrease of 5.90 percentage points [5] Aluminum - The price of alumina has accelerated its decline, while electrolytic aluminum prices are rising, leading to a significant recovery in profitability [5] - The report suggests that the aluminum sector may experience a shortage this year, providing upward price potential [5] Lead and Zinc - Lead prices showed a slight decrease, while zinc prices increased by 0.97% [38] - The report indicates that the smelting profit for zinc is at -1,004 CNY/ton, reflecting an expanded loss [38] Tin and Nickel - Tin prices decreased by 1.91%, while nickel prices increased by 2.47% [44] - The profitability of domestic nickel enterprises is reported at 6,434 CNY/ton, showing a narrowing profit margin [44] 3. Energy Metals Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices rose by 2.84% to 77,850 CNY/ton, with a noted increase in profitability for lithium extraction [51] - The report highlights that the supply of lithium is tightening, which may lead to price stability in the range of 70,000 to 90,000 CNY/ton [5] Cobalt - The price of cobalt has decreased, with domestic cobalt prices reported at 163,000 CNY/ton [56] - The report indicates a decline in profitability for domestic cobalt smelting plants [56]

Group 1 - Beijing will support the deepening reform of the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) as a key task for 2025, aiming to enhance the financing capabilities of various sectors to better meet the needs of the real economy [7][8] - The BSE has officially released guidelines for compiling sustainable development reports, which aim to improve the quality of information disclosure by listed companies [8][9] - As of January 17, 2025, nine companies have released earnings forecasts for 2024, with seven companies expecting growth, including three companies (Haidaer, Yuanhang Precision, and Changhong Energy) forecasting a year-on-year increase of at least 100% in net profit attributable to shareholders [11][12] Group 2 - The overall price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of BSE A-shares has increased to 36X, with significant rebounds in the PE ratios of the ChiNext and STAR Market as well [16][17] - The average daily trading volume of BSE A-shares has risen to 17.9 billion yuan, reflecting a 23% increase compared to the previous week [17][20] - The BSE 50 Index has shown a weekly increase of 9.63%, closing at 1,122.94 points, indicating a positive market trend [18][22] Group 3 - No new companies were listed on the BSE during the week of January 13 to January 17, 2025, but a total of 24 companies have been newly listed since January 1, 2024 [23] - Four companies updated their review status to "inquired," while another four companies had their review status updated to "terminated" during the same period [30]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the ongoing escalation of U.S. sanctions against Iranian and Russian oil, which is expected to enhance the shipping market's prosperity [4][5] - The Biden administration has intensified sanctions, with the latest on January 10, 2025, being the most severe, directly impacting oil trade routes and ports [6][10] - The report anticipates that the oil shipping market is in an upward cycle due to a tight supply-demand gap, driven by increased production from non-OPEC countries and delayed OPEC+ recovery [26][29] Summary by Sections U.S. Sanctions on Iranian and Russian Oil - The U.S. has continuously increased sanctions against Iranian and Russian oil trade, with significant measures taken on January 10, 2025, affecting 272 crude oil tankers (50.37 million DWT) and 124 product tankers (7.65 million DWT) [6][10] - The sanctions are expected to restrict the flow of oil from Iran and Russia, creating new demand for compliant fleets [26][29] Shipping Market Outlook - The report suggests that the shipping market is experiencing a favorable environment, with recommendations to focus on companies like COSCO Shipping Energy, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and China Shipbuilding Industry [6][26] - The demand for oil shipping is projected to grow, with VLCC demand expected to increase from 188.9 million DWT in 2025 to 193.5 million DWT in 2026, reflecting a 2.4% growth [23][26] Impact of Sanctions on Oil Trade - The sanctions are likely to redirect oil volumes from Iran and Russia to other regions, particularly non-OPEC areas like the U.S. and Latin America, which will benefit VLCC rates [29][30] - The report indicates that the ongoing sanctions will structurally benefit VLCC rates, as demand shifts to regions with increased production [27][29]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pharmaceutical industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The pharmaceutical market has shown signs of rebound, supported by policy measures from the Medical Insurance Bureau, which provide strong backing for a bottoming out in the sector. The industry is expected to see marginal improvement in 2025, with structural opportunities worth watching [6][28] - The report highlights the recovery of the supply chain exports, particularly recommending Haitai New Light due to its potential for business recovery as overseas procurement demand gradually resumes [3][28] Summary by Sections Market Performance - From January 13 to January 17, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose by 2.14%, while the pharmaceutical index increased by 2.67%, resulting in an excess return of 0.53% compared to the broader market [6] - The number of stocks that rose this week was 435, while 57 stocks fell. The top gainers included Dabo Medical (+21.74%) and Jinhao Medical (+21.34%), while the largest declines were seen in *ST Puli (-15.63%) and Kangwei Century (-14.19%) [17][19] Sector Analysis - The medical device sector, particularly companies like Kaili Medical and Haitai New Light, is expected to reverse its fortunes in 2025. The traditional pharmaceutical sector has also completed a significant transformation towards innovation [6][28] - The report emphasizes the importance of innovation, overseas expansion, and the aging population as key drivers for the industry. The medical insurance system is also expected to continue its stable growth, promoting a multi-tiered payment system [28][29] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on innovative pharmaceuticals and medical devices, companies with overseas expansion capabilities, and those involved in domestic substitution. Specific companies to watch include Heng Rui Pharmaceutical, He Huang Pharmaceutical, and others in the medical device sector [28][31] - The investment portfolio for the week includes Kunyu Group, Haitai New Light, Kaili Medical, Yuyue Medical, and Zexing Pharmaceutical, while the January portfolio includes a broader range of companies [32]