Group 1: Overseas AI - Anthropic released Claude 3.5 Sonnet, which outperforms competitors and is twice as fast as Claude 3 Opus, with a cost of $3 per million tokens for input and $15 for output, making it one-fifth the cost of Claude 3 Opus [15][16]. - The AI sector is experiencing rapid model iterations and practical improvements, with new AIPC products accelerating AI deployment. Key companies to watch include BYD Electronics, Apple, Microsoft, Qualcomm, and OEMs [3][29]. - The performance of major tech indices showed a decline, with the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.2% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down 1.1%, underperforming the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 [29][30]. Group 2: Web3 and Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market saw a decline in total market capitalization, dropping to $2.34 trillion, with a total trading volume of $61 billion, representing 2.61% of the total market cap [20][24]. - There was a continuous outflow from spot ETFs, with a net outflow of $106 million on June 21, totaling $544 million for the week, influenced by expectations of interest rate cuts [2][44]. - Significant events include the launch of VanEck's spot ETF on Australia's largest stock exchange and Standard Chartered's entry into the cryptocurrency trading space [2][50].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly focusing on energy metals and new materials [3][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a downward trend in lithium carbonate prices, which fell by 3.66% to 94,850 CNY/ton, and hydroxide lithium prices decreased by 4.35% to 84,600 CNY/ton, indicating a weak market environment [4][18]. - The supply of lithium carbonate is steadily increasing, with May production reaching 62,538 tons, up 18% month-on-month, while demand is experiencing a temporary decline due to inventory adjustments [4]. - The cobalt market shows a stable overseas price of 12.38 USD/pound, while domestic cobalt prices dropped by 2.27% to 215,000 CNY/ton, reflecting a supply surplus [4][24]. - Nickel and manganese prices are also fluctuating, with sulfuric nickel prices down 4.65% to 30,800 CNY/ton, indicating a challenging pricing environment [4][32]. - The rare earth permanent magnet market is experiencing mixed trends, with praseodymium-neodymium oxide prices rising by 0.55% to 363,000 CNY/ton, while dysprosium and terbium prices have decreased [4][37]. Summary by Sections Energy Metals - Lithium prices are under pressure, with carbonate and hydroxide prices declining significantly [4][18]. - Cobalt prices are stable internationally but have decreased domestically, with a notable supply surplus [4][24]. - Nickel and manganese prices are experiencing downward pressure due to supply constraints and weak demand [4][32]. New Materials - The report expresses optimism for soft magnetic and copper alloy materials, driven by trends in the electronics and power sectors [5]. - The demand for high-performance soft magnetic materials is expected to grow due to advancements in AI computing and renewable energy investments [5]. - The copper alloy sector is anticipated to benefit from economic recovery and increased demand for copper cables and connectors [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the transportation industry, indicating a favorable investment environment [4]. Core Insights - The shipping industry is expected to experience sustained demand, with container prices likely to remain high due to various factors including geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions [9]. - In the express delivery sector, prices are at historical lows, limiting further downside, while the industry is positioned for high-quality growth and orderly competition [9]. - The aviation sector is anticipated to benefit from a recovery in international routes and improved domestic demand, with airlines expected to show performance elasticity [10]. Summary by Sections Shipping - China Baowu has entered the Simandou iron ore project, which may lead to increased shipbuilding and fleet expansion to meet transportation needs [5]. - The Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI) rose by 2.9% to 3475.60, with significant increases in rates for European and US West Coast routes [5]. - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increased by 3.8% to 1959 points, indicating a positive trend in bulk shipping [6]. Express Delivery - The express delivery industry saw a demand growth of 23.8% in May, with expectations for continued strong performance into June [7]. - Price competition remains limited, with major players showing varied price changes, indicating a stable competitive environment [7]. - Major express companies like ZTO and Yunda reported significant year-on-year growth in business volume, despite slight declines in per-package revenue [19][21]. Aviation - The summer travel season is projected to see a 12.65% increase in flight volumes compared to last year, with domestic flights expected to grow by 7.91% [8]. - The international flight market is recovering, with significant increases in flight volumes between China and Malaysia, as well as Australia [8]. - The overall passenger transport volume in civil aviation reached 59 million in May, reflecting a 14.1% year-on-year increase [37]. Logistics - The logistics sector is experiencing a favorable shift, with competition easing and a positive outlook for express delivery and freight services [10]. - Companies like DeBang and Aneng Logistics are expected to benefit from strategic transformations and improved profitability [10]. - The chemical logistics market is also showing potential for growth, with leading companies poised for significant profit increases [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3][4] Core Insights - The company has received EU approval for FRUZAQLA® (furmonertinib), marking it as the first innovative targeted therapy approved for metastatic colorectal cancer in over a decade in the EU [3] - Furmonertinib shows significant efficacy advantages, with strong sales momentum in the US, generating over $50 million in sales in Q1 2024 alone [3][4] - The company has a robust pipeline with multiple upcoming catalysts, including potential approvals for various indications in 2024 [4] Summary by Sections Company Events - On June 22, the company announced that Takeda received EU approval for FRUZAQLA® for treating adult patients with metastatic colorectal cancer who have progressed after standard therapies [3] - Furmonertinib has a nearly 50% market share in China since its approval in 2018, and it is expected to gain further traction in international markets [3] Future Catalysts - The company anticipates continued strong sales of furmonertinib, with a Japanese market application submitted in September 2023 and expected approval in H2 2024 [4] - Other products in the pipeline include potential approvals for various cancer treatments, with significant revenue growth expected from these innovations [4] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company projects total revenue for its oncology/immunology business to be between $300 million to $400 million in 2024, driven by existing product sales and royalties [4] - Revenue estimates for 2024-2026 are $705 million, $912 million, and $1.185 billion respectively, with a calculated equity value of HKD 40.9 billion based on DCF analysis [4]

证券研究报告 金属与材料|有色金属 行业定期报告 2024年06月23日 大宗商品震荡，等待美国 6 月通胀就业数据指引 看好 ——有色金属 大宗金属周报（24/6/17-24/6/23） （维持） 投资要点： 证券分析师 田源 ➢ 本周大宗商品偏震荡为主，后续等待美国6月通胀和就业数据指引。铜金中长期逻辑仍未改变，仍建议继 S1350524030001 续关注贵金属、低冶炼自给率的铜和高氧化铝自给率的电解铝板块，小金属建议关注：钨、锰、锑和铟，同 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 时可关注滞涨品种如镍和镁等。 田庆争 S1350524050001 ➢ 贵金属板块：人民币汇率贬值预期提升，内盘金价上涨。伦敦现货黄金上涨0.20%、上期所黄金上涨2.35%， tianqingzheng@huayuanstock.com 项祈瑞 伦敦现货白银上涨4.19%、上期所白银上涨5.57%，钯金上涨11.35%，铂金上涨5.16%。上周美联储议 S1350524040002 息会议没有给出明确降息路径，市场预期年内仅降息一次后，金价调整。本周市场主要受美国经济和就业数 xiangqirui@huayua ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The AI PC and smartphones are crucial carriers for the implementation of large models, revolutionizing traditional application modes, with an accelerated evolution of AI leading to a new wave of device upgrades [2][17] - The introduction of AI smartphones and AI PCs is expected to revitalize the consumer electronics market, which has faced declining demand in recent years, with projections indicating significant growth in shipments starting in 2024 [2][17] - The report highlights the importance of hardware advancements, particularly in processor architecture and memory value, as key drivers for the AI PC and smartphone markets [2][17] Summary by Sections 1. AI PC & Smartphones as Key Carriers - AI PCs are a new hybrid of computing platforms that integrate AI technology, enhancing traditional PC functionalities and user experiences [4][5] - The emergence of generative AI smartphones is set to transform user interactions and content generation, marking a significant shift in the smartphone ecosystem [11][12] 2. Hardware Changes: Processor Architecture and Memory Value - ARM architecture is expected to gain market share due to its low power consumption, with predictions indicating that by 2027, ARM-based laptops will capture 25% of the market [2][23] - The introduction of NPU (Neural Processing Unit) in AI PCs is crucial for efficient low-power AI inference, enhancing computational efficiency and reducing costs [2][17] 3. Large Model Developments: Lightweight Models and Multimodal Interaction - The report discusses the launch of lightweight models and multimodal large models that enhance human-computer interaction, with a focus on the necessity of AI-enabled endpoints [2][17] 4. Investment Logic: Accelerated AI Implementation and Upcoming Device Upgrades - The report suggests focusing on companies like BYD Electronics, Apple, Qualcomm, Microsoft, and Lenovo, as they are well-positioned to benefit from the AI-driven recovery in the consumer electronics sector [2][17] 5. Industry Chain Distribution - The AI PC and smartphone industry chain includes upstream hardware and software suppliers, midstream OEMs and brand manufacturers, and downstream application scenarios across various sectors [20]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [5][6][25]. Core Views - The company is experiencing continuous expansion in its copper and gold sectors, with strategic investments in lithium and molybdenum to create a second growth engine. The projected growth in copper and gold production, alongside favorable market conditions, suggests a strong performance outlook [5][6][8][25]. Summary by Sections 1. Copper Sector: Continuous Capacity Release and Project Advancement - In 2023, the company produced 1.01 million tons of copper, a 15% increase year-on-year. Key projects include the Kamoa-Kakula project in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which is expected to reach an annual capacity of over 600,000 tons by 2024 [15][16]. - The Timok and Bor copper mines in Serbia are progressing towards full production, with expected capacities of 300,000 tons per year by 2025 [15][16]. - The company anticipates copper production to exceed 1.22 million tons by 2025, driven by ongoing capacity expansions and new projects [15][16]. 2. Gold and Silver Sector: Resumption of Four Major Mines - The company achieved a gold production of 67.73 tons in 2023, marking a 20.17% increase. Future growth is expected from the resumption of operations at four major mines, including the Suriname Rosebel and the Haiyu gold mines, which are projected to contribute significantly to production by 2025 [18][19]. - The company aims for a total gold production of 85 tons by 2025, supported by the revival of these key mining operations [19][20]. 3. Strategic Layout of Lithium and Molybdenum Sectors - The company is developing its lithium sector with over 10 million tons of lithium resources, targeting a production of 120,000 to 150,000 tons of lithium carbonate by 2025 [22][24]. - The molybdenum sector is projected to achieve an annual production of 27,200 tons, contributing an average profit of 1 billion yuan [24]. 4. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company forecasts net profits of 28.7 billion, 33.9 billion, and 40.3 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16X, 13X, and 11X [5][6][25]. - Compared to peer companies, which have average P/E ratios of 19X, 16X, and 14X for the same period, the company demonstrates a strong growth outlook and profitability [6][25].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the utility and power sector, specifically focusing on the National Power Investment Corporation (国家电投集团) [3][41]. Core Insights - National Power Investment Corporation is the largest renewable energy generation company globally, with a rapid increase in installed capacity for new energy sources, reaching 120 million kilowatts by the end of 2023, accounting for over 50% of its total installed capacity [3][8]. - The corporation's asset securitization rate is notably low at 37.4%, indicating a significant portion of high-quality assets remain unlisted, particularly in hydro and nuclear power [3][13]. - The company has a diverse portfolio, including coal, hydro, nuclear, and renewable energy, with a total asset scale of 1.75 trillion yuan and total installed capacity of 237 million kilowatts [3][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Overview of National Power Investment Corporation - Established in May 2015, it is a major state-owned enterprise directly managed by the central government, covering all types of power generation [8]. - The corporation's business includes power generation, coal, aluminum, financial services, and emerging industries such as hydrogen energy and energy storage [3][8]. 2. Asset Analysis 2.1 Power Assets - The total installed capacity is 237 million kilowatts, with the breakdown being 34.8% thermal, 10.75% hydro, 21.43% wind, 29.14% solar, and 3.9% nuclear [19]. - The hydroelectric capacity ranks among the top ten globally, with significant unlisted assets, particularly in the Yellow River hydroelectric projects [21][24]. - The nuclear power segment includes 8 operational units and 6 under construction, totaling over 17 GW [27][29]. 2.2 Renewable Energy - The installed capacity for wind power is 50.89 million kilowatts, ranking second globally, while solar power capacity is 69.19 million kilowatts, ranking first [32]. - The compound annual growth rate for renewable energy capacity from 2017 to 2023 is 30% [32]. 2.3 Coal Assets - The corporation has coal production capacity of 86.3 million tons, primarily located in the Inner Mongolia region, with a significant portion sold internally to power generation units [33][34]. 2.4 Other Assets - The company has 285,000 tons/year of electrolytic aluminum capacity, with a securitization rate of approximately 30% [37]. - It is actively developing hydrogen energy and energy storage solutions, with significant investments in these sectors [38][39]. 3. Future Outlook - The report emphasizes the importance of asset integration to reduce the high debt ratio, which is currently among the highest in the industry at 68.75% [41][42]. - Potential investment opportunities are highlighted in subsidiaries such as China Power, Shanghai Electric, and Jilin Electric, which are expected to benefit from asset integration and market dynamics [41][42].

证券研究报告 公用事业|电力 行业深度 2024年06月16日 新能源高速增长加大消纳压力 关注消纳产业链机会 看好 ——新能源消纳系列报告之一 （维持） 投资要点： 证券分析师 ➢ 新能源高速增长及电网建设滞后导致新能源压力增大。2023年我国新能源新增装机近3亿千瓦，新能源 刘晓宁 电量占比提升至15.8%，但新增主要集中在新能源电量占比已经很高的三北地区，加上这些地区电力消费 S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 量偏低、电网建设力度滞后于电源侧、电力系统缺乏足够的灵活性资源以及缺少灵活高效的引导供需手段 的因素，新能源消纳压力开始凸显。 联系人 ➢ 电能替代、可再生能源制氢等是提高本地需求的主要路径。解决三北地区新能源消纳，需要提高本地用电 刘晓宁 S1350523120003 需求，因此需重点关注绿电利用和电气化相关产业链。绿氢是对电价敏感性较高的行业，而绿氢在氢气产 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 量中占比仅1%左右，应用空间广阔。随着电解槽价格、新能源制造成本大幅下降，绿氢经济性提高，我 板块表现： 们测算如果电价下降至 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the utility and power industry, focusing on the opportunities in the new energy absorption sector [1] Core Viewpoints - The rapid growth of new energy and lagging grid construction have increased the pressure on new energy absorption, especially in the northern regions where new energy penetration is high but electricity consumption is low [1][7] - Key solutions to improve local electricity demand include green hydrogen production and electrification, with green hydrogen being highly sensitive to electricity prices and having significant potential for cost reduction [1][7] - Grid-side solutions involve flexible DC transmission to enhance new energy delivery efficiency and strengthening distribution network construction to address distributed energy absorption issues [1][7] - Flexibility resources such as energy storage, solar thermal, and flexibility retrofitting are critical for improving the power system's ability to absorb new energy [1][7] Detailed Summary by Sections New Energy Growth and Grid Construction Lag - In 2023, China added 75.9GW of wind power and 216.9GW of solar power, bringing the total new energy capacity to 1.05 billion kW, accounting for 36% of the total installed capacity [7] - The northern regions, particularly the "Three North" areas, have high new energy penetration but low electricity consumption, exacerbating the absorption pressure [7][9] - Grid construction has lagged behind power generation development, with the source-grid coordination index rising to 1.39 in 2023, indicating a significant mismatch [7][13] Increasing Local Electricity Demand - Green hydrogen production is a key method to increase local electricity demand, with green hydrogen accounting for only 1% of total hydrogen production but having vast application potential [1][7] - Electrode boilers, which can provide both heating electrification and flexibility retrofitting, are expected to see increased market space due to their dual functionality [1][7] Grid-Side Solutions - Flexible DC transmission is expected to improve new energy delivery efficiency, with four UHVDC projects approved in 2023, marking a significant acceleration in construction [1][7] - Distribution network construction needs to be strengthened to accommodate distributed energy sources, with many regions facing limitations in distributed photovoltaic access [1][7] Flexibility Resources - Energy storage, solar thermal, and flexibility retrofitting are key directions for enhancing the power system's flexibility [1][7] - Pumped storage, with over 130GW approved in 2022 and 2023, is expected to contribute significantly to the market, with major players like Dongfang Electric and Harbin Electric benefiting [1][7] - Flexibility retrofitting of coal-fired power plants is also a major focus, with the potential to contribute over 100 billion RMB in market space by 2027 [1][7] Investment Analysis - The report recommends focusing on green hydrogen, electrification, main grid equipment, distribution network construction, and flexibility resources [1][7] - Key companies to watch include Huaguang Electric, Dongfang Electric, Xuji Electric, and others in the green hydrogen, electrification, and flexibility resource sectors [1][7]