公用事业|电力 行业点评 2024年04月07日 增量配网区域划分办法修订 促进源网荷储发展 看好 ——公用事业 2024 年第 14 周周报（24/04/01-24/04/06） （维持） 投资要点： 证券分析师 ➢ 继续看好低协方差标的“四水两核”：长江电力、华能水电、国投电力、川投能源、中国核电、中国广核。 刘晓宁 S1350523120003 推荐：黔源电力+湖北能源，黔源电力现金流强劲，有望享受低协方差扩散行情；湖北能源水火共振业绩 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 大幅向好，央企改革估值有望提振。推荐：理工能科，现金流优秀且重视股东回报，油色谱更新换代量价 齐升带动公司业绩快速提升。 联系人 ➢ 涨幅回顾：本周推荐组合（等权配置）下跌0.40%，沪深300下跌0.77%，wind全A下跌0.889%，主 刘晓宁 S1350523120003 动股基下跌0.38%，推荐组合跑赢沪深300 0.38个百分点，跑输主动股基0.02个百分点。2024年以来 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 关注组合上涨13.41%，沪深300上涨3.98%，wind全A下跌 ...

证券研究报告 金属与材料|有色金属 行业深度 2024年04月22日 铜行业深度报告 看好 ——行业拐点或将来临，铜价有望创新高 （首次） 投资要点： 证券分析师 田源  矿端供给拐点或提前至2024年中甚至更早。长期来看：品位下滑成本上升，资本开支抑制供给增加。随着 S1350524030001 现有矿山的持续开采，铜矿开采边界品位持续下滑，成本上升。从资本开支角度，2024-2026年铜矿增产 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 主要受2019-2021年资本开支影响，此时资本开支处于历史相对低位，因此未来几年供给相对有限，且从 项祈瑞 S1350524040002 长期来看，供给高峰或在2028年（近期资本开支高峰为2023年），且增产强度远低于上一波供给（2013 xiangqirui@huayuanstock.com 年资本开支高峰）。中期来看：2024-2026年矿端供给增量有限。从矿企角度，全球Top15矿企（产量 联系人 占全球50%+）2024年合计计划产铜1269.4万吨，同比增长1.6%，增量约20万吨。从产矿国角度，全 球Top8产矿国（约占全球60%）2024年预计 ...

证券研究报告 公用事业|电力 行业点评 2024年04月14日 新国九条引导长期资金入市 继续看好低协方差电力板块 看好 ——公用事业 2024 年第 15 周周报（24/04/08-24/04/14） （维持） 投资要点： 证券分析师  继续看好低协方差标的“四水两核”：长江电力、华能水电、国投电力、川投能源、中国核电、中国广核。 刘晓宁 推荐：黔源电力+湖北能源，黔源电力现金流强劲，有望享受低协方差扩散行情；湖北能源水火共振业绩大 S1350523120003 幅向好，央企改革估值有望提振。推荐：理工能科，现金流优秀且重视股东回报，油色谱更新换代量价齐 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 升带动公司业绩快速提升。 联系人  涨幅回顾：本周推荐组合（等权配置）上涨0.48%，沪深300下跌1.71%，同花顺全A下跌1.37%，主 动股基下跌0.25%，关注组合跑赢沪深300 2.19个百分点，跑输主动股基0.74个百分点。2024年以来关 刘晓宁 注组合上涨14.76%，沪深300上涨2.64%，同花顺全A下跌3.79%，主动股基下跌3.04%，关注组合跑 S13505231200 ...

公用事业|电力 行业点评 2024年04月1日 用电量增速超预期 火电产业链持续催化 看好 ——公用事业 2024 年第 13 周周报（24/03/25-24/03/31） （维持） 投资要点： 证券分析师  推荐组合，继续看好低协方差标的 “四水两核”：长江电力、华能水电、国投电力、川投能源、中国核 刘晓宁 S1350523120003 电、中国广核。新增推荐组合：黔源电力+湖北能源，黔源电力现金流强劲，有望享受低协方差扩散行情； liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 湖北能源水火共振业绩大幅向好，央企改革估值有望提振。新增推荐标的：理工能科，现金流优秀且重视 股东回报，油色谱更新换代量价齐升带动公司业绩快速提升。 联系人  涨幅回顾：本周推荐组合（等权配置）上涨2.71%，沪深300上涨0.33%，wind全A下跌0.005%，主 刘晓宁 S1350523120003 动股基下跌0.60%，关注组合跑赢沪深300 2.38个百分点，跑赢主动股基3.31个百分点。2024年以来 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 关注组合上涨15.76%，沪深300上涨3.10 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance [3]. Core Insights - The company reported a 2023 revenue of 14.69 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.63%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.62 billion yuan, up 1.1%, aligning with expectations [3]. - The company plans to maintain a cash dividend payout ratio of at least 30% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the years 2024-2026 [3]. - The company has significant offshore wind power project indicators, with over 1 GW secured, positioning it for future growth as it accelerates project acquisition [3]. - The report forecasts net profits of 2.99 billion yuan for 2024, 3.15 billion yuan for 2025, and 3.47 billion yuan for 2026, with respective growth rates of 14%, 5.3%, and 10.3% [4]. Financial Performance Summary - The company achieved a total revenue of 14.69 billion yuan in 2023, with a projected revenue of 14.66 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a slight decline of 0.2% [4]. - The net profit for 2023 was 2.62 billion yuan, with a forecasted increase to 2.99 billion yuan in 2024, representing a growth rate of 14% [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was 1.03 yuan, expected to rise to 1.08 yuan in 2024 [4]. - The gross margin is projected to improve from 23.8% in 2023 to 28.0% in 2024 [4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [28]. Core Viewpoints - The company is recognized as a leading player in the cooling tower industry, with a wide economic moat and strong market position. It has established a robust relationship between technology, brand, scale, and cash flow, which enhances its competitive advantage [28][91]. - The traditional downstream sectors, including petrochemicals and power generation, are expected to maintain resilience, while the overseas market presents significant growth potential. The company has been proactive in expanding its international presence, particularly in Southeast Asia and the Middle East [28][72]. - The report highlights the imminent shift towards liquid cooling solutions, with the company positioned to benefit from this trend. The cooling tower is deemed essential in the liquid cooling process, and the company is well-equipped to capture market share in this segment [28][32]. - The company has entered the hydrogen equipment manufacturing sector through the acquisition of Suzhou Green Meng, which is expected to enhance its growth trajectory by leveraging synergies with its existing cooling tower business [28][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Domestic Cooling Tower Leader with Broad Moat - The company is a prominent player in the cooling tower industry, with a significant market share and a well-established reputation. It has built a wide economic moat through technological innovation and brand recognition [28][91]. - The company has a strong international presence, with nearly 50% of its revenue coming from overseas markets, particularly in Southeast Asia and the Middle East [28][72]. 2. Traditional Downstream Resilience and Overseas Market Growth - The company’s traditional downstream sectors are aligned with the previous industrial and energy revolutions, ensuring sustained demand. Key sectors include petrochemicals, power generation, and semiconductors [28][83]. - The company has been an early mover in global expansion, actively participating in the Belt and Road Initiative, which enhances its growth prospects in emerging markets [28][72]. 3. Liquid Cooling Penetration Point and Domestic Replacement Potential - The report emphasizes the growing importance of cooling towers in the liquid cooling segment, which is expected to see increased adoption due to rising computational demands [28][32]. - The company is positioned to lead the domestic replacement of cooling towers, benefiting from its established market presence and technological capabilities [28][32]. 4. Entry into Hydrogen Equipment Sector - The acquisition of Suzhou Green Meng allows the company to tap into the burgeoning hydrogen equipment market, which is projected to grow significantly as green hydrogen projects gain momentum [28][19]. - The overlap between the company’s cooling tower clients and hydrogen equipment customers presents a unique opportunity for cross-selling and enhanced growth [28][19]. 5. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 81 million, 111 million, and 143 million CNY for the years 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively, indicating a positive growth trajectory [28]. - The report suggests that the company is undervalued compared to its peers, with a projected PE ratio of 26X, 19X, and 15X for the next three years [28].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1][4][17]. Core Insights - The company holds the first domestically produced shingles vaccine, which presents a significant market potential due to the high burden of shingles disease in China, with over 1.5 million new cases annually [1][6]. - The competitive landscape for shingles vaccines in China is favorable, with the company being the only domestic producer currently in the market, while the global market is dominated by GSK's Shingrix vaccine [1][2][6]. - The company's shingles vaccine has a competitive edge in terms of safety, fewer doses required, and cost-effectiveness, targeting a price-sensitive demographic [2][6]. Summary by Sections Market Potential - Shingles disease has a substantial burden, with an incidence rate of 6-12 per 1,000 individuals aged 60 and above, leading to a potential vaccination population of over 600 million in China [1][6]. - The company’s shingles vaccine was approved in January 2023, priced at 1,369 yuan per dose, requiring only one dose compared to two for Shingrix, which is priced at 1,598 yuan [1][2]. Financial Performance and Projections - In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 1.825 billion yuan, a 70.3% increase year-on-year, primarily driven by the rapid uptake of the shingles vaccine [11][20]. - The report forecasts revenues of 2.56 billion, 3.1 billion, and 3.65 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 40.2%, 21.4%, and 17.6% [4][17]. - Net profits are projected to reach 750 million, 890 million, and 1.04 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 49.4%, 18.6%, and 16.7% [4][17]. Competitive Analysis - The company’s shingles vaccine is expected to compete effectively against GSK's Shingrix, with a market strategy that targets different segments, focusing on price-sensitive consumers [2][6]. - The report highlights that the company’s vaccine is currently the only domestically produced option, which positions it favorably in a market that is still developing [1][2]. Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected at 25, 21, and 18 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, indicating a premium valuation compared to peers [4][17]. - The report includes a comparative analysis with similar companies, noting that while the company’s valuation is higher, its unique market position and growth potential justify this premium [4][18].

图 9：公司 1500 Nm3/h 碱性电解槽产品正式下线 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的免责声明 第 11 页/ 共 20 页 源引金融活水 泽润中华大地 资料来源：公司公告，公司官网，华源证券研究 公司积极利用产业资源与业内合作，拓展氢能技术实力。公司利用国资背景，积极开 展业内产业合作，与中国能建、康明斯、一汽无锡泵所、上汽大通无锡分公司、同惠研究 院、威孚集团、先导智能、毅合捷、玉柴芯蓝、中科院上海高等研究院等公司和单位开展 业务合作，在技术、市场等方面共同发力氢能领域。市场端公司也取得突破，2023 年 12 月 12 日，中能建 2023 年制氢设备集中采购中，公司成功入围中标候选人。此次招标共招 标 100 套 1000 标方碱性电解槽和 15 套 PEM 电解槽，也意味着公司产品已经获得市场认 可。 表 6：公司与业内在氢能领域合作情况 | --- | --- | --- | |------------|------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][4] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a significant increase in net profit for Q1 2024, with estimates ranging from 710 to 920 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 129% to 196% [3] - The strong performance is attributed to favorable water inflow, increased electricity demand, and a decline in coal prices, which have positively impacted both hydropower and thermal power generation [3][4] - The company has a diversified energy portfolio, with hydropower, thermal power, wind, and solar contributing to its overall performance, and it is well-positioned for continued growth in 2024 [4] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - The company reported a cumulative power generation of 10.8 billion kWh from January to March 2024, a 42% increase year-on-year, driven by a cold wave and a low base from the previous year [3] - Hydropower generation reached 3.465 billion kWh, up 176% year-on-year, while thermal power generation increased by 12.5% to 6.1 billion kWh [3] Market Conditions - The report highlights that the current low coal prices and high water levels in key reservoirs provide a solid foundation for Q2 performance [3] - As of April 12, 2024, the water level at the main reservoir was 380 meters, compared to 368 meters the previous year, indicating favorable conditions for hydropower generation [3] Regulatory Environment - Recent policies from the Hubei Provincial Development and Reform Commission aim to reduce electricity costs for industrial and commercial users, which may impact electricity pricing but are expected to have limited short-term effects on the company's performance due to its conservative approach to new energy development [4] Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.81 billion, 2.89 billion, and 3.44 billion yuan for the years 2023 to 2025, with corresponding PE ratios of 13 and 11 for 2024 and 2025 [4] - The intrinsic value of the company is estimated at 47 billion yuan, considering its diverse energy sources and additional business segments [4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage in this context [5][8][22]. Core Views - The company is recognized as one of the leading players in the domestic blood products industry, with strong long-term growth certainty. It has a total of 38 plasma collection stations, and the plasma collection volume is expected to exceed 1,000 tons in 2023, positioning the company among the top tier in the industry [5][10]. - The blood products industry is experiencing significant asset restructuring, leading to an expected increase in industry concentration. The report anticipates that mergers and acquisitions will continue to be frequent in the coming years [5][10]. - The company has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Xinjiang Deyuan, which is expected to enhance its plasma collection capacity significantly [6][10]. - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 2.33 billion, 2.92 billion, and 3.37 billion yuan for the years 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 610 million, 770 million, and 920 million yuan [8][19][21]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Control and Empowerment - The company became controlled by Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry Group in early 2023, which is expected to provide substantial empowerment opportunities for the company moving forward [5][15][22]. - The company’s revenue for 2023 is projected at 2.33 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 3.2% year-on-year, while net profit is expected to grow by 4.2% to 610 million yuan [15][21]. Section 2: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to see revenue growth rates of -3.2%, 25.4%, and 15.2% for the years 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively, with net profit growth rates of 3.2%, 27.1%, and 19.6% [8][19][21]. - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected to be 36, 29, and 24 for the years 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively, indicating a competitive valuation compared to peer companies [8][22].