证券研究报告 公用事业|电力 公司点评 2024年04月25日 桂冠电力 (600236.SH) 买入 ——分红比例大超预期 水电资产配置彰显价值 （维持） 投资要点： 证券分析师 ➢ 事件：公司发布2023年年报与2024年一季报，2023年全年实现归母净利润12.26亿元， 刘晓宁 S1350523120003 同比下降61.8%，2024年一季度实现归母净利润4.4亿元，同比增长46.0%。2023年度拟 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 分红0.12元/股，分红比例77.16%，加上已经实施的中期分红，全年总分红比例达到128.59% 研究支持 ➢ 来水持续偏枯，导致业绩下滑，2024年一季度业绩增长或来自火电改善与新能源增长。受拉 尼娜现象影响，红水河流域 2023 年以来降雨持续偏少，公司 2023 年水电发电量同比减少 41.50%，2024年一季度继续偏枯，水电发电量同比减少7.38%。但是公司2024年一季度业 联系人 刘晓宁 绩逆势增长 46%，我们分析主要系一季度水电发电量本身基数较低，整体业绩受火电和新能 S1350523120003 源的影响较大。公司2024 ...

证券研究报告 证券分析师 刘晓宁 S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： 相关研究 公司点评 买入（维持） ——全年业绩符合预期，核准项目保障未来三年高成长 ➢ 事件：公司发布 2023 年年报，2023 年公司实现营业收入 24.03 亿元，同比增长 30.53%， 实现归母净利润 8.03 亿元，较 2022 年调整后的归母净利润同比增长 37.9%（较调整前的归 母净利润增长 50.1%），符合我们的预期。另外公司公告 2023 年现金分红 0.11 元/股（含税）， 对应分红率 33.34%。 ➢ 拥有在建及拟建 1.8GW 风电项目，预计近两年陆续投产给公司贡献高盈利。截至 2023 年底 公司拥有在建及拟建风电项目 1.82GW，主要位于黑龙江、广西、山东等地，预计将在 2024-2025 年陆续开工、投产，黑龙江标杆电价 0.374 元/千瓦时、广西标杆电价 0.4207 元/ 千瓦时，电价水平较高，市场化程度水平较低，风资源情况较好，预计投产后单 GW 年化超 过 2 亿元，给公司带来较高的盈利增量。此外，公司还申报发行全国首单民企 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for Huaneng International, marking its first coverage [4][7]. Core Viewpoints - Huaneng International is the flagship listed platform of Huaneng Group and the largest listed power generation company in China, with a total installed capacity of 136 million kilowatts as of December 2023, including 93.28 million kilowatts of coal power and 28.61 million kilowatts of renewable energy [4][12]. - The company has a strong performance recovery in 2023, achieving a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.446 billion yuan, compared to a loss of 3.942 billion yuan in the same period last year [4][26]. - The introduction of a capacity price mechanism for coal power is expected to significantly benefit the company, with potential annual compensation of 10 billion yuan for its coal power capacity [4][26]. Summary by Sections 1. Huaneng Group Flagship Platform - The Largest Power Generation Company - Huaneng International is the largest listed power generation company in China, with a diversified energy portfolio including coal, gas, wind, and solar power [4][12]. - As of December 2023, the company has achieved a total renewable energy installed capacity of 28.61 million kilowatts, with a target of adding 40 million kilowatts during the 14th Five-Year Plan [4][12]. 2. Capacity Price Mechanism and Long-term Opportunities - The capacity price mechanism introduced by the National Energy Administration in November 2023 is expected to transform the commercial model of coal power, allowing for a more stable revenue stream [4][26]. - The report highlights that the focus of market dynamics is shifting back to coal prices, with a potential increase in net profit of 8.5 billion yuan for every 100 yuan per ton decrease in coal prices [4][26]. 3. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profits for Huaneng International for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 12.735 billion yuan, 14.569 billion yuan, and 15.721 billion yuan respectively, with a corresponding PE ratio of 16, 13, and 12 [6][30]. - The report emphasizes that the company is well-positioned to benefit from the restructuring of the coal power mechanism, justifying the "Accumulate" rating [4][7].

证券研究报告 公用事业|电力 首次覆盖报告 2024年04月25日 华电国际 (600027.SH) 增持 ——华电集团火电平台 山东湖北供需格局指向标的 （首次覆盖） 投资要点： 证券分析师 ➢ 华电集团旗舰上市平台，控股装机聚焦火电，通过参股华电新能参与新能源业务。公司为华能集团旗舰上 刘晓宁 S1350523120003 市平台，截至2023年12月底，公司拥有控股装机5845万千瓦，其中煤电4689万千瓦，气电909万 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 千瓦，水电 246 万千瓦，为五大发电集团主要平台中唯一一个装机均为传统电源的公司。公司通过参股 华电新能参与新能源业务，目前持股31.03%。截至2022年底，华电新能拥控股装机3491万千瓦，其 研究支持 中风电2209万千瓦，光伏1282万千瓦，如果IPO成功将成为我国最大的新能源上市公司。 ➢ 公司的发展历史为公司打上深刻的“山东烙印”，目前山东装机占比仍超过 40%。与五大发电集团其他 联系人 平台相比，公司虽然也属于全国性火电龙头，但是控股装机分布集中度极高，与公司发展历史关系密切。 刘晓宁 山东至今仍然是公司煤电最 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market [1][3]. Core Insights - The company's green environmental performance has declined, with a 33.7% year-on-year decrease in EBITDA to 1.48 billion HKD in 2023, down from 2.23 billion HKD in 2022. However, the acceleration of national subsidies for biomass projects in 2024 is expected to improve cash flow [1]. - The profit forecast has been adjusted upwards, with the expected net profit for 2024 and 2025 revised to 4.573 billion HKD and 4.715 billion HKD, respectively. A new forecast for 2026 has been added at 4.840 billion HKD. The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are 4.1, 4.0, and 3.9 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, indicating that the company's valuation is over 50% lower than comparable companies [1][3]. - The company has seen a shift in revenue structure, with operational income increasing as construction revenue declines. In 2023, operational and financial income accounted for 76% of total revenue, up 11 percentage points from 2022 [3]. - The company is expected to achieve positive free cash flow in 2024, with capital expenditures projected to continue decreasing. The dividend payout ratio is around 30%, with potential for an increase as free cash flow improves [3]. - The company maintains its leading position in the waste-to-energy industry, with a waste processing capacity of 158,900 tons per day as of the end of 2023, remaining the largest global operator in this sector [3]. - The water services segment has shown steady profit growth, with a 13.58% year-on-year increase in EBITDA to 2.475 billion HKD in 2023 [3]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company reported a total revenue of 32.09 billion HKD in 2023, a 14% decrease year-on-year, while net profit was 4.429 billion HKD, down 4% from the previous year [3][4]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2024 and 2025 are 35.622 billion HKD and 36.272 billion HKD, respectively, with expected growth rates of 11% and 2% [4]. - The forecasted net profit for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is 4.573 billion HKD, 4.715 billion HKD, and 4.840 billion HKD, respectively [4]. Operational Insights - The operational income has increased, with a significant rise in the share of operational and financial income in total revenue, indicating a transition to a more sustainable revenue model [3]. - The company has reduced capital expenditures significantly, leading to an improvement in free cash flow, which is expected to turn positive in 2024 [3].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2][6]. Core Views - The company is the largest waste-to-energy operator globally, with a significant focus on environmental energy, water services, and new energy sectors. In 2022, it generated revenue of HKD 37.321 billion, with environmental energy contributing 59% [2][14]. - The company is transitioning from external growth to internal growth, as operational revenue has increased significantly, indicating a shift towards a more stable operational phase [2][18]. - The company's cash flow is expected to improve due to subsidy recoveries, enhancing its dividend yield, which has been around 30% historically [2][22]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company, under the Everbright Group, has developed into the world's largest waste-to-energy operator since its establishment in 1993, with a focus on environmental energy, water services, and new energy [2][14]. - As of June 2023, the company has 188 waste-to-energy projects with a daily processing capacity of 157,200 tons of municipal waste [14][15]. 2. Operational Performance - The operational revenue ratio has increased, with 49% in 2022 and 57% in the first half of 2023, indicating a shift towards operational maturity [2][18]. - The company has reduced capital expenditures, leading to a positive outlook for free cash flow as it transitions from a high capital expenditure phase to a mature operational phase [2][20]. 3. Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve revenues of HKD 37.475 billion, HKD 36.002 billion, and HKD 36.650 billion for 2023-2025, with corresponding net profits of HKD 4.090 billion, HKD 4.115 billion, and HKD 4.250 billion [2][6]. - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is low compared to peers, enhancing the attractiveness of its dividend yield, projected at 6.6%, 6.7%, and 6.8% for 2023-2025 [2][6]. 4. Sector Analysis - The waste-to-energy sector is transitioning from rapid expansion to a focus on operational efficiency, with the company leading in waste processing capacity, which increased from 14.27 million tons/year in 2017 to 46.79 million tons/year in 2022 [2][24]. - The company has strategically positioned itself in economically developed regions, enhancing its operational metrics and profitability [2][30]. 5. Water Services and Green Energy - The water services segment has shown stable growth, with wastewater treatment capacity increasing to 5.77 million tons/day by the end of 2023 [2][35]. - The green energy segment, primarily focused on biomass power generation, is expected to benefit from improved cash flow as government subsidies are anticipated to be received [2][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for CGN New Energy (1811 HK) [2] Core Views - CGN New Energy's 2023 performance met expectations, with a significant improvement in profitability driven by lower coal costs and better wind resources [2] - The company's dividend payout ratio increased to 25%, with an absolute dividend amount growing by 71% year-over-year, highlighting its high dividend value [2] - The company's renewable energy projects demonstrate high quality, with stable electricity prices and superior profitability compared to peers [2] - Backed by CGN Group, the company benefits from scale advantages and project acquisition capabilities, ensuring high growth and return rates [2] - The company's valuation remains attractive, with a forward PE ratio of 4 2x for 2024 and a dividend yield exceeding 6% [2] Financial Performance - In 2023, CGN New Energy reported revenue of USD 2 19 billion (RMB 15 53 billion), a year-over-year decline of 9 8%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 37 2% to USD 268 million (RMB 1 896 billion) [2] - The company's coal-fired power projects in China turned profitable, contributing USD 15 million, compared to a loss of USD 50 million in 2022, due to a 17 3% decline in coal procurement costs [2] - Wind power projects in China generated USD 260 million, up 12% year-over-year, driven by a 10 6% increase in wind power generation [2] - Solar power projects in China generated USD 28 million, down 36% year-over-year, due to impairment of some receivables [2] Renewable Energy Projects - CGN New Energy's wind power projects achieved an electricity price of RMB 0 56/kWh (tax included), slightly down by RMB 0 01/kWh year-over-year, while solar power prices remained stable at RMB 0 64/kWh [2] - The company added 590 MW of new renewable energy capacity in 2023, including 20 MW of wind power and 570 MW of solar power, primarily in regions with low grid curtailment risks [2] - The company aims to add at least 500 MW of new renewable energy capacity annually, ensuring leading project return rates [2] Valuation and Forecasts - The report forecasts net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1 947 billion, RMB 2 055 billion, and RMB 2 17 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 2 7%, 5 53%, and 5 4% [2] - The company's forward PE ratios for 2024-2026 are 4 2x, 3 9x, and 3 7x, respectively, with dividend yields of 6 0%, 6 3%, and 6 7% assuming a 25% payout ratio [2] Market Performance - CGN New Energy's stock performance is compared to the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, with significant underperformance over the past year [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for China Resources Power (0836.HK) based on its strong governance and better-than-expected performance in 2023 [3]. Core Insights - In 2023, the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 11 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 56.24%, positioning it as the leader among state-owned power enterprises in terms of profit size [3]. - The company's total revenue for 2023 was HKD 103.3 billion, a slight increase of 1.17% year-on-year, with a dividend payout ratio of 62% when including a special dividend [3]. - Renewable energy has become the main profit contributor, with core profits from renewable energy reaching HKD 9.726 billion, up 12.5% year-on-year, while thermal power turned profitable with core profits of HKD 3.611 billion [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a net profit of HKD 11 billion in 2023, a 56.24% increase from 2022, with a total revenue of HKD 103.3 billion [3][5]. - The operating profit margin improved to 17.6% in 2023, with a return on equity (ROE) of 11.73% [5][6]. Cash Flow and Receivables - The company’s net operating cash flow reached HKD 28.87 billion, the highest since 2016, marking a 19.46% increase year-on-year [4]. - Accounts receivable stood at HKD 32.8 billion at the end of 2023, reflecting a significant improvement compared to peers [4]. Future Outlook - The company plans to add 10 GW of new renewable energy capacity in 2024, with a total capital expenditure of HKD 59.9 billion planned for the year [4]. - Profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at HKD 14.22 billion, HKD 16.06 billion, and HKD 18.28 billion respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 6, 5, and 5 times [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][3] Core Views - The company's net profit for 2023 was 2.66 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 7.23%, slightly below the expected 3.2 billion RMB. The dividend per share is 0.132 RMB, resulting in a current dividend yield of 4.4% [2] - The primary reason for the underperformance was historically low water levels, leading to a rare loss in the hydropower segment, which reported a loss of 826 million RMB in 2023 compared to a profit of 261 million RMB in 2022 [2] - The coal power segment exceeded expectations, achieving a profit of 1.315 billion RMB, benefiting from the divestment of underperforming assets [2] - The renewable energy segment saw rapid expansion, with wind power capacity reaching 15.149 million kW and solar power capacity at 12.016 million kW by the end of 2023, resulting in net profits of 3.116 billion RMB and 1.504 billion RMB respectively [2] - The company is expected to add approximately 4.5 million kW of wind power and 2.5 million kW of solar power in 2024, primarily focusing on wind power to ensure project profitability [2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported total revenue of 44.262 billion RMB in 2023, with a projected increase to 56.189 billion RMB in 2024 [4] - The net profit forecast for 2024 and 2025 is 4.801 billion RMB and 6.930 billion RMB respectively, with a projected PE ratio of 8 and 5 for these years [4] Strategic Positioning - The company is positioned as a flagship platform within the State Power Investment Corporation, with a clear alignment between the group's strategy and the company's development direction [3] - The dual carbon strategy is expected to resonate with the national reform context, enhancing the company's growth prospects [3]

Investment Rating - Buy rating (first coverage) [1] Core Views - The company is a leading online-to-offline (O2O) automotive service platform in China, addressing key pain points in the automotive service industry [2] - The company operates a well-managed offline network of stores and technicians, providing high-quality and standardized in-store services [2] - The company has built a comprehensive automotive service platform that includes car owners, suppliers, service stores, and other participants [2] - As of the end of 2023, the company has 5,909 Tuhu Workshop stores nationwide, with 5,757 being franchised stores, covering all provincial-level administrative regions and over 300 cities [2] - The company has 115 million registered users, with over 19.3 million users placing orders on the platform in 2023, and an average of over 10 million monthly active users on the Tuhu Car Maintenance app [2] - The company's proprietary technology system supports digitalization of the supply chain and is coordinated through intelligent algorithms [2] - The company has over 800 R&D personnel and has developed a comprehensive automotive service technology support system [2] Business Model and Expansion - The company's asset-light business model enables rapid expansion, with a self-developed online platform supporting stable business operations [2] - The company's innovative franchise model allows for rapid expansion of its store network while ensuring service standardization and product quality [2] - As of March 31, 2023, the company has established the largest and most accurate automotive parts database in China, covering 286 brands and over 66,000 vehicle models, with a matching accuracy rate of 99.99% [2] - The company has strong bargaining power with upstream suppliers and high customer loyalty, with a repurchase rate of over 60% [2] Market Potential - The automotive aftermarket in China is a long-term growth opportunity, with the market size reaching RMB 1.2 trillion in 2022 [2] - The market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 9% from 2023 to 2027, driven by increasing car ownership, mileage, and vehicle age [2] - The market is highly fragmented, with traditional IAM stores expected to increase their share from 46.6% in 2022 to 58.1% in 2027 [2] - The company's new business model addresses the inefficiencies of traditional IAM stores, such as poor user experience, complex supply chain layers, and inefficient fulfillment processes [2] Financial Performance and Valuation - The company achieved a turnaround in 2023, with revenue of RMB 13.6 billion, a YoY increase of 17.8%, and net profit of RMB 670.3 million [19] - The company's gross margin increased from 19.7% in 2022 to 24.7% in 2023, driven by the growth of self-owned and exclusive brands [4] - The company's net profit margin also improved, with adjusted net profit (non-IFRS) reaching RMB 481 million in 2023 [19] - The company's revenue structure has been optimized, with high-margin businesses such as car maintenance increasing their share [20] - The company's gross margin is expected to continue to rise, with forecasts of 26.0%, 26.7%, and 27.4% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4] - The company's net profit is expected to reach RMB 671.1 million, RMB 1.114 billion, and RMB 1.547 billion in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4] - The company's 2025 PE ratio is 12X, compared to the average PE ratio of 21X for comparable companies, indicating significant upside potential [5] Industry Comparison - The US automotive aftermarket has seen strong performance from companies like AutoZone and O'Reilly, with AutoZone's revenue growing from USD 5.71 billion in 2005 to USD 17.46 billion in 2023, a CAGR of 6.4% [2] - AutoZone's net profit grew from USD 571 million in 2005 to USD 2.53 billion in 2023, a CAGR of 8.6% [2] - AutoZone's stock price has increased over 97 times since 2000, with an average PE (TTM) of 15.6X [2] - O'Reilly's revenue grew from USD 2.045 billion in 2005 to USD 15.812 billion in 2023, a CAGR of 12%, with net profit growing from USD 164 million to USD 2.347 billion, a CAGR of 15.9% [2] - O'Reilly's stock price has also increased over 97 times since 2000, with an average PE (TTM) of 21.9X [2] Key Assumptions - The company is expected to maintain an annual franchise store expansion of 1,000-1,200 stores, with franchise store numbers reaching 6,757, 7,957, and 9,157 in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [6] - Single-store revenue is expected to be RMB 1.9 million, RMB 1.875 million, and RMB 1.85 million in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, as the company expands into lower-tier cities [6] - Gross margin is expected to increase to 27%, 27.5%, and 28% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, driven by the growth of self-owned and exclusive brands [6] Investment Logic - Store expansion is the main driver of revenue growth, while the increase in self-owned and exclusive brands supports gross margin improvement [7] - The franchise model ensures low capital expenditure, and the company's market share in China is still far below that of AutoZone and O'Reilly in the US, indicating significant room for growth [7] - The company's gross margin is still lower than that of overseas leaders (over 50%), suggesting further upside potential [7]