Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, highlighting its position as a leader in air freight and benefiting from the high demand in cross-border logistics [4][9]. Core Views - The company is expected to experience significant growth due to improving air freight supply and demand dynamics, with international air freight demand projected to grow substantially driven by cross-border e-commerce [4][11]. - The company's operational flexibility is notable, with a significant impact on net profit from price fluctuations in air freight [5][11]. - The report anticipates that the company's revenue and profitability will improve as it expands its logistics services and capitalizes on its strategic positioning in the market [5][11]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in 2004 and listed in 2021, is the first air freight company in China to go public. It operates a comprehensive logistics network that includes air express, integrated logistics solutions, and ground services, with revenue contributions of 44%, 44%, and 12% respectively in 2023 [1][59]. Air Freight Supply and Demand Improvement - Demand for air freight is expected to rise with economic recovery and cross-border e-commerce growth, with projected annual growth rates of 11.2%, 11.1%, and 9.9% from 2024 to 2026. International air freight demand is expected to grow at rates of 21.4%, 19.7%, and 16.0% during the same period [4][86]. - Supply growth is manageable, with a controlled increase in cargo aircraft capacity and a slower growth rate in passenger aircraft bellyhold capacity [4][86]. Revenue and Profitability Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 30.5 billion, 36.7 billion, and 43.4 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 8.8x, 7.3x, and 6.2x [9][11]. - Revenue from air express services is expected to grow significantly, with estimates of 111.7 billion, 129.5 billion, and 149.1 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026, reflecting growth rates of 22.3%, 15.9%, and 15.1% respectively [10][11]. Strategic Positioning - The company is well-positioned in the logistics market, leveraging its resources to extend its supply chain services and enhance its cross-border e-commerce capabilities, which are anticipated to become a second growth curve for the company [5][11]. - The company has established a strong presence in key cargo station resources, which is expected to stabilize and enhance profitability as new cargo station projects come online [5][11].

Group 1 - The report highlights that the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) has achieved significant growth in its three years of operation, with the number of listed companies increasing from 81 to 257 and a total market capitalization exceeding 670 billion yuan [1][31]. - The report indicates that the BSE is actively supporting small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in their specialized and innovative development paths, with policy tools such as public convertible bonds and the launch of ETF business being noteworthy [1][31]. - The report expresses a positive long-term outlook for the BSE's allocation value, particularly for companies with stable performance, reasonable valuations, and scarcity in new productive forces [1][31]. Group 2 - The overall price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for BSE A-shares remains at 43X, with a slight decrease from 43.50X to 43.16X [3][35]. - The average daily trading volume for BSE A-shares has decreased to 35.9 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 28% compared to the previous week [3][37]. - The report notes that the BSE 50 Index has a PE TTM of 58X, despite a weekly decline of 3.38% [3][38]. Group 3 - The average first-day price increase for newly listed companies in 2024 has risen to 181%, with the average issuance PE ratio being 15.5X [4][45]. - A total of 95 companies have been newly listed on the BSE from January 1, 2023, to November 15, 2024, with significant first-day price increases observed [4][45]. - The report mentions that the company Shengye Electric has initiated its IPO with a determined issuance price of 9.12 yuan per share and a PE ratio of 15.96X [2][24].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the utility sector is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Insights - The rapid expansion of green certificate and green electricity trading in China has been observed, with 477 million green certificates issued by the National Energy Administration as of September 2024, including 111 million from wind power and 70.44 million from solar power [1][17] - The carbon-electricity market in China still has gaps, and the pricing of green electricity and certificates is fundamentally a reflection of carbon prices. The current national carbon market price has surged to around 100 yuan per ton, while European carbon prices remain above 60 euros per ton [3][21] - The COP29 conference has made significant progress in establishing a global carbon market, with consensus reached on carbon credit standards and mechanisms [5][22] Summary by Sections Green Certificate and Green Electricity Trading Expansion - The formal passage of the Energy Law in China reinforces the status of green certificates, which is expected to enhance green electricity trading [15][16] - As of September 2024, the cumulative issuance of green certificates reached 2.319 billion, with significant contributions from conventional hydropower [17][21] - The trading volume of green electricity has increased dramatically, exceeding five times the volume from the same period last year [21] COP29 Opening and Global Carbon Market Progress - The COP29 conference in Azerbaijan has established important principles for carbon credit standards, aiming to create a UN-supervised global carbon market [5][22] - China's stance at COP29 emphasizes multilateral cooperation and the differentiation of responsibilities between developed and developing countries [24][25] Key Company Valuation Table - Recommended undervalued green electricity companies include Longyuan Power, Datang New Energy, CGN New Energy, and Xintian Green Energy in Hong Kong stocks, and Three Gorges Energy in A-shares [4][26]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The express delivery industry saw a 24% year-on-year increase in volume in October, with a total of 16.31 billion packages delivered, and revenue reaching 125.79 billion yuan, a 12.3% increase [4][28] - The shipping sector is experiencing tight supply due to limited new orders for oil tankers and an aging fleet, while demand is expected to benefit from increased non-OPEC production [8] - The logistics sector is showing resilience, with major players expected to benefit from economies of scale and pricing power in a competitive environment [8] Industry Dynamics Tracking Shipping Vessels - Significant adjustments in export tax rebates were announced, with some rebates canceled and others reduced by over 30% [1] - The Shanghai export container freight index decreased by 3.4% to 2252 points, with varying changes in rates for different routes [2] - The BDI index increased by 13.8% to 1629 points, driven by a rise in bulk carrier rates [3] Express Logistics - The express delivery sector is expected to continue stable growth, with the peak volume during the Double 11 shopping festival reaching 700 million packages, 151% of the normal daily volume [4] - The demand for express services remains robust, with terminal prices at historically low levels, limiting downward pressure [8] Air Transportation - The BAI80 index for air cargo increased by 12.6% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend in air freight demand [7] - The overall performance of airlines is expected to improve due to a favorable competitive landscape and sustained supply-demand dynamics [8] Supply Chain Logistics - The express logistics market is showing signs of improvement, with major companies like DeBang and AnNeng Logistics expected to benefit from strategic transformations and operational efficiencies [8]

Group 1 - The Zhuhai Airshow has established a low-altitude economy pavilion, showcasing a variety of unmanned aerial vehicles and systems, providing innovative application scenarios and collaboration opportunities for low-altitude economy enterprises [1][21] - The low-altitude economy is characterized by various manned and unmanned aerial activities, driving the integration and development of related fields, with significant market potential [1][21] - The report identifies several companies in the Beijing Stock Exchange's low-altitude economy industry chain, including Weimao Electronics, Parallel Technology, and Minshida, which are involved in various aspects of low-altitude economic development [1][68] Group 2 - The overall performance of the Beijing Stock Exchange's technology growth stocks showed a median decline of 0.60% from November 11 to 15, 2024, with 65 companies experiencing an increase [2] - Notable performers included Dadi Electric (+172.72%), Wuhan Blue Electric (+62.78%), and Naconoer (+53.38%), indicating a diverse range of growth within the sector [2][3] - The report highlights the median PE ratios across various industries, with the electronic equipment sector's median PE decreasing from 50.6X to 48.2X, while the information technology sector's median PE increased from 48.4X to 57.6X [3] Group 3 - The low-altitude economy is projected to grow significantly, with the market size reaching 2.5 trillion yuan in 2022 and expected to expand to over 6 trillion yuan by 2035, driven by supportive policies and technological advancements [36][40] - The report outlines the three foundational elements for the development of the low-altitude economy in China: supportive policies, established infrastructure, and technological capabilities [37][40] - The low-altitude economy encompasses logistics, urban transportation, emergency rescue, and other sectors, indicating its broad service scope and long industrial chain [36][40]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the building materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The recent optimization of real estate tax policies is expected to positively impact both demand and supply, accelerating the reshaping of the supply-demand landscape in the real estate market [1][2] - The report emphasizes that the real estate market has entered a new development phase, shifting from quantity expansion to quality optimization, which will better meet diverse housing needs [24][25] Summary by Sections 1. Sector Tracking - The building materials index has decreased by 5.2% during the week, with sub-sectors such as cement and glass fibers also showing declines [18] - Notable stock performances include Gu Di Technology (+14.8%) and Zhongqi New Materials (+11.1%) [18] 2. Data Tracking 2.1 Cement - The average price of 42.5 cement nationwide is 427.2 CNY/ton, up 1.7 CNY/ton month-on-month and up 51.5 CNY/ton year-on-year [32] - The cement inventory ratio is 66.5%, down 0.2 percentage points month-on-month and down 7.5 percentage points year-on-year [32] 2.2 Float Glass - The average price of 5mm float glass is 1582.5 CNY/ton, up 46.1 CNY/ton month-on-month but down 540.4 CNY/ton year-on-year [54] - Inventory levels in key provinces have decreased by 4.8% month-on-month [54] 2.3 Photovoltaic Glass - The average price for 2.0mm coated photovoltaic glass is 12.0 CNY/sqm, unchanged month-on-month but down 6.8 CNY/sqm year-on-year [64] - The inventory days for photovoltaic glass have decreased to 38.19 days, down 81.2% month-on-month [64] 2.4 Glass Fiber - The average price of alkali-free glass fiber yarn is 4575.0 CNY/ton, down 10.0 CNY/ton month-on-month but up 495.0 CNY/ton year-on-year [73] - The average price of electronic yarn is 9200.0 CNY/ton, unchanged month-on-month and up 1300.0 CNY/ton year-on-year [73] 2.5 Carbon Fiber - The average price of large tow carbon fiber is 72.5 CNY/kg, unchanged month-on-month but down 2.0 CNY/kg year-on-year [83] - The average operating rate of carbon fiber enterprises is 50.87%, up 1.97 percentage points month-on-month [83]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive (Maintain)" [1] Core Views - Lithium carbonate prices increased by 4.38% to 78,700 CNY/ton, while lithium hydroxide prices rose by 0.45% to 67,195 CNY/ton. Supply has steadily increased since the beginning of the year, but production has fluctuated since June. Demand has improved recently, leading to a rebound in prices. Short-term prices are expected to remain strong, while long-term prices may fluctuate weakly due to oversupply. Recommended companies include Tianqi Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium, Zhongjin Lingnan, and Yongxing Materials [1] - In the rare earth permanent magnet sector, prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxide fell by 0.83% to 420,000 CNY/ton, dysprosium oxide decreased by 2.29% to 1,705,000 CNY/ton, and terbium oxide dropped by 2.43% to 5,830,000 CNY/ton. Northern Rare Earth's November listing price increased month-on-month, and downstream orders have recovered. The market is expected to operate with strong fluctuations in the future, with a focus on future quota indicators. Recommended companies include China Rare Earth, Northern Rare Earth, Jinli Permanent Magnet, and Zhongke Sanhuan [1] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The top three performing sub-sectors this week were lithium (1.53%), powder (-2.07%), and copper alloy (-3.22%). The bottom three were permanent magnets (-10.38%), rare earths (-8.42%), and diamonds (-6.16%) [19] 2. Energy Metals - Lithium prices: - Spodumene rose by 4.54% to 806 USD/ton - Lepidolite increased by 5.52% to 1,625 CNY/ton - Lithium carbonate rose by 4.38% to 78,700 CNY/ton - Lithium hydroxide increased by 0.45% to 67,195 CNY/ton - Cobalt prices: - MB cobalt price rose to 11.00 USD/pound - Domestic cobalt price increased to 182,000 CNY/ton - Cobalt sulfate rose to 27,200 CNY/ton - Nickel and manganese prices: - Manganese sulfate remained stable at 6,200 CNY/ton - Nickel sulfate decreased to 27,300 CNY/ton [26][44][60] 3. New Materials - In the power new materials sector: - Phosphate iron price remained stable at 10,400 CNY/ton - Lithium iron phosphate price rose to 34,300 CNY/ton - Precursor 622 price decreased to 71,500 CNY/ton - Ternary cathode 622 price increased to 122,500 CNY/ton - Lithium hexafluorophosphate price rose to 56,800 CNY/ton [84][85] - In the photovoltaic new materials sector: - Average processing fee for welding tape (0.3mm) remained at 4.25 CNY/kg - Average price for 421 metal silicon powder remained at 13,250 CNY/ton - Average price for photovoltaic frames decreased by 3.5% to 24,050 CNY/ton [90][91]

证券研究报告 有色金属 行业定期报告 | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | hyzqdatemark 2024 年 11 月 17 日 | 铜铝材出口退税取消，内盘铜铝价格承压 | | | | | 投资评级： 看好（维持） | ——有色金属 大宗金属周报（2024/11/11/-2024/11/15） 投资要点： | | 证券分析师 | | | 田源 | 贵金属板块：美联储 12 月降息预期下降，美元强势，金价大幅回调。伦敦现 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pharmaceutical industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - Recent positive signals from the National Health Commission and the Medical Insurance Bureau indicate a potential marginal improvement in policies, suggesting a stabilization and gradual recovery in the pharmaceutical sector by 2025 [1][4] - The pharmaceutical index has declined by 9.76% year-to-date, ranking second to last among all sectors, but there are expectations for a rebound in performance as structural high-growth segments and stocks are anticipated [4][60] Summary by Sections 1. Improvement of Medical Insurance Prepayment System - The National Medical Insurance Bureau and the Ministry of Finance have issued a notice to standardize and improve the basic medical insurance fund prepayment system, which is expected to enhance cash flow for industrial enterprises and private hospitals [3][21] - In 2023, 63% of the coordinated areas allocated a total of 88.1 billion yuan in prepayments to designated medical institutions, indicating a shift from a "post-payment" system to a prepayment approach [22] 2. Industry Perspective: Focus on Innovation, International Expansion, and Aging Population - The pharmaceutical index has shown a decline of 3.92% this week, with a year-to-date performance of -9.76%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 25.43% [33] - The report highlights the need for strategic positioning in sectors expected to rebound, such as medical devices and traditional Chinese medicine, while also emphasizing the importance of innovation and international market expansion [4][64] 3. Investment Recommendations - Suggested stocks for investment include: 1. **International Expansion**: Mindray Medical, United Imaging, and others [4][64] 2. **Innovative Pharmaceuticals and Devices**: Hengrui Medicine, Hutchison China MediTech, and others [4][64] 3. **Domestic Substitution**: Focus on companies like KAILI Medical and Aohua Endoscopy [4][64] 4. **Aging Population and Out-of-Hospital Consumption**: Companies such as Yuyue Medical and Kunming Pharmaceutical [4][64] 5. **High Barrier Industries**: Recommendations include human pharmaceutical companies and blood products [4][64] 6. **Small but High-Quality Stocks**: Companies like Baiyang Pharmaceutical and Pumen Technology are highlighted for potential valuation recovery [4][64] 4. Weekly Investment Portfolio - The current investment portfolio includes Baiyang Pharmaceutical, JiuDian Pharmaceutical, Yuyue Medical, and others [5][66] - The November investment portfolio features Hengrui Medicine, Kangnuo Pharmaceutical, and others [5][66]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on the anticipated financial performance and strategic initiatives [4][9]. Core Insights - The company has been implementing a "core business focus" strategy since 2017, leading to a significant reduction in debt and improvement in financial metrics, including a decrease in the debt-to-asset ratio to 43.7% as of Q3 2024, down from a peak of 60% [4][37]. - The company has shown a strong improvement in net profit margins, with a non-recurring net profit margin increasing from 2.2% in 2019 to 7.4% in 2023, and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.8% in non-recurring net profit from 2017 to 2023 [4][37]. - The core subsidiary, Yichang Renfu, has demonstrated robust performance, with revenue growing from 1.4 billion yuan in 2012 to 8.06 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a CAGR of 17.2% [4][44]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Business Focus Strategy - The company has successfully divested non-core assets and focused on its main business, leading to improved financial health and operational efficiency [4][37]. - The financial cost ratio has decreased significantly, from 4.1% in 2019 to 1.2% in 2023, contributing to enhanced profitability [4][37]. 2. Anesthesia Market Potential - The anesthesia market is expected to grow due to an aging population and increasing demand for comfortable medical procedures, with the domestic market size estimated at around 30 billion yuan [58][60]. - Yichang Renfu holds a dominant market share in the analgesic sector, with over 90% market share in key products like the Fentanyl series [11][58]. 3. Non-Surgical Growth and New Product Potential - The company is focusing on non-surgical areas, with significant growth in non-surgical anesthesia revenue, which increased from approximately 600 million yuan in 2019 to 2.04 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a CAGR of 35.8% [4][11]. - New products in the sedation field, launched since 2020, are expected to accelerate growth in this segment, with projected revenue growth of 10-15% over the next three years [4][11]. 4. Research and Development - The company has increased its R&D expenditure to 1.46 billion yuan in 2023, with an R&D expense ratio of 5.96%, up from 2.69% in 2019, indicating a commitment to innovation [4][53]. - Several promising products are in various stages of clinical trials, which could further enhance the company's product pipeline and market position [4][55]. 5. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 26.05 billion yuan, 27.96 billion yuan, and 29.94 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 6.2%, 7.3%, and 7.1% [9][4]. - The expected net profits for the same period are 2.17 billion yuan, 2.57 billion yuan, and 2.97 billion yuan, with growth rates of 1.5%, 18.4%, and 15.7% [9][4].