收入稳健增长，"讯飞星火"模型能力提升 科大讯飞(002230) 证券研究报告 软件开发 / 公司点评 / 2025.10.21 投资评级:增持(维持) | 基本数据 | 2025-10-20 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元) | 51.35 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 21.89 | | 每股净资产(元) | 7.70 | | 总股本(亿股) | 23.12 | 最近 12 月市场表现 -9% -1% 6% 14% 22% 29% 科大讯飞 沪深300 上证指数 分析师 杨烨 SAC 证书编号：S0160522050001 yangye01@ctsec.com ❖ 事件：2025 年 10 月 20 日，公司发布 2025 年三季度报告。2025 年前三季 度，公司实现收入 169.89 亿元，同比增长 14.41%；实现归母净利润-0.67 亿元，同比增长 80.60%。3Q2025，公司实现收入 60.78 亿元，同比增长 10.02%；实现归母净利润 1.72 亿元，同比增长 202.40%。 ❖ 收入稳健增长，现金流持续向好。3Q2025，公司继续保持健康的经营发 展态势，营业收入 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company has demonstrated resilience in its operations, with a focus on profit-centric strategies leading to significant improvements in net profit and cash flow [7] - The company is positioned as a leader in the AIoT sector, with expectations for accelerated performance recovery and growth driven by national policies and digitalization [7] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 65.758 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.18%, and a net profit of 9.319 billion yuan, up 14.94% year-on-year [7] - The third quarter of 2025 saw revenue of 23.940 billion yuan, a 0.66% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.662 billion yuan, reflecting a 20.31% increase year-on-year [7] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was 45.67%, an increase of 1.42 percentage points year-on-year, driven by adjustments in domestic operations and product structure [7] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 94.894 billion yuan, 102.211 billion yuan, and 111.968 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 14.101 billion yuan, 15.749 billion yuan, and 17.765 billion yuan [7] - The expected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025-2027 are 21.03, 18.83, and 16.69 respectively [7] Business Strategy and Innovations - The company has incubated eight innovative business directions, with revenue contributions increasing, particularly from sectors such as automotive, lithium battery, and logistics [7] - The company is actively adjusting its marketing strategies and increasing technological investments to promote the implementation of AI large model products [7] - The overseas business strategy is tailored to local needs, with strong demand in security, traffic management, and urban governance [7] Cash Distribution and Shareholder Returns - Over the past 12 months, the company has implemented cash dividends totaling 10.096 billion yuan and a buyback of 2.028 billion yuan, totaling 12.125 billion yuan [7] - The company plans to continue increasing the frequency and rate of dividends to create a virtuous cycle of performance growth and high dividends [7]

证券研究报告 宏观点评 / 2025.10.21 分析师 张伟 SAC 证书编号：S0160525060002 zhangwei04@ctsec.com 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ 生产强、需求弱——9 月经济数据点评 联系人 连桐杉 liants@ctsec.com 核心观点 ❖ 事件：9 月经济延续"生产韧性、需求放缓"的趋势，9 月当月社零、地产销 售同比均低于前值，但工增、服务业保持较高景气度。 ❖ 总体：三季度 GDP 同比 4.8%，较二季度回落 0.4 个百分点，符合预期， 是关税冲击和国内结构调整的共同结果。前三季度 GDP 同比 5.2%，完成全 年 GDP 增速目标的难度较小，政策加码的必要性不大。 ❖ 结构：消费：9 月社零当月同比 3.0%，前值为 3.4%，一方面前期补贴的透 支效应、补贴退坡导致补贴类商品、耐用品消费走弱，另一方面与去年的高基 数也有关。工增：9 月当月同比 6.5%，前值为 5.2%，一是出口有韧性，二 是由于假期的安排今年比去年多一个工作日。固投：9 月当月同比-8.4%， 降幅走阔，关税及反内卷继续拖累制造业投资，基建降幅边际收窄，地产下滑 幅度加大。 ❖ 风 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company has shown resilience in sales, with a sales amount of 16.3% year-on-year increase in September 2025, despite a 3.1% decline in sales for the first nine months of 2025 [8] - The company has significantly increased its investment intensity, with a total investment of 75.21 billion yuan in the first nine months of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 160.4% [8] - The company is expected to see a recovery in performance, with projected net profits of 4.32 billion yuan, 5.06 billion yuan, and 5.81 billion yuan for 2025-2027, corresponding to PE ratios of 20.9X, 17.8X, and 15.5X respectively [8] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 175.01 billion yuan, with a decline of 4.4% year-on-year, followed by a slight increase of 2.3% in 2024 [7] - The net profit for 2023 is expected to be 6.32 billion yuan, with a significant increase of 48.2% year-on-year, but a decline of 36.1% is anticipated for 2024 [7] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.48 yuan, with a PE ratio of 20.9 [7] Investment Opportunities - The company has acquired high-quality land in the Jing'an District, with a transaction amount of 7.737 billion yuan, which is expected to contribute over 10 billion yuan in sales [8] - The company focuses on core cities and improvement-type products, leading to an increase in average sales price by 22.4% year-on-year to 27,700 yuan per square meter [8]

Core Insights - The report maintains a positive outlook on the industry, highlighting a 50% year-on-year increase in battery exports in September and a continued rise in the price of hexafluorophosphate lithium [1][3] Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.47% this week, while the solid-state battery index dropped by 5.04%. Year-to-date, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen by 14.56%, and the solid-state battery index has increased by 46.42% [7][11] - Trading volume for the entire A-share market reached 10,964.26 billion yuan, up 110.61% week-on-week, with the solid-state battery index trading volume at 405.917 billion yuan, up 57.31% [7][11] Price Tracking in the Supply Chain - As of October 17, lithium carbonate (99.5% battery grade) is priced at 73,400 yuan per ton, down 120 yuan from the previous week. The price of lithium iron phosphate is 33,400 yuan per ton, down 900 yuan, while ternary material (523) has increased by 13.6 yuan per kilogram to 135.93 yuan [12][21] - The price of hexafluorophosphate lithium has risen to 79,000 yuan per ton, up 1,150 yuan from last week, and the average price of graphite electrodes remains stable at 12,500 yuan per ton [12][21] Industry News & Company Announcements - Since mid-September, the price of hexafluorophosphate lithium has surged, breaking its previous plateau. Prices increased from 56,000 yuan per ton on September 16 to 68,000 yuan per ton by October 13, with some quotes reaching 73,000 yuan per ton [28][29] - The Democratic Republic of Congo's cobalt export quota system took effect on October 16, which is expected to impact the global cobalt trade and the lithium battery supply chain [29] Battery Demand Tracking - In the first nine months of 2025, the production of power and other batteries reached 1,121.9 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 51.4%. In September alone, production was 151.2 GWh, up 35.85% year-on-year [30][31] - The power battery installation volume for the first nine months of 2025 was 493.9 GWh, up 42.5% year-on-year, with September's installation volume at 76 GWh, an increase of 39.45% [30][31] - Power battery exports totaled 129.1 GWh in the first nine months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 21.7%, with September exports at 17.6 GWh, up 50.43% year-on-year [30][35] Lithium Battery Equipment Sector Insights - The report indicates that solid-state battery technology continues to make breakthroughs, with several automakers planning to adopt solid-state batteries around 2027. The industry is expected to accelerate its industrialization process [3][30] - The report suggests focusing on leading lithium battery equipment companies such as Xianlead Intelligent, Yinghe Technology, and Liyuanheng, as well as companies involved in the incremental segment like Jiao Cheng Ultrasonic and Hai Moxing [3][30]

Core Insights - Infrastructure investment has weakened in the first three quarters, with a notable decline in the proportion of special bonds used for broad infrastructure, dropping to approximately 31% from 45% in the previous year [5] - The valuation of central state-owned construction enterprises remains low, highlighting the investment value of high-dividend stocks in this sector, with dividend yields for several companies exceeding 4.6% [5] - The Xinjiang region is expected to benefit from ongoing infrastructure investments, with significant projects underway that will positively impact local leading engineering firms and suppliers [5] Infrastructure Investment Trends - As of October 19, 2025, special bonds issued reached 3.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.01%, but the investment growth rates for narrow and broad infrastructure were only 2.00% and 5.42% respectively from January to August 2025 [5] - In August 2025, narrow and broad infrastructure investments saw year-on-year declines of 5.85% and 6.42%, indicating a slowdown in growth momentum [5] Valuation and Dividend Insights - As of October 17, 2025, several central state-owned construction companies exhibited attractive dividend yields, such as China State Construction at 4.86% and China Railway Construction at 6.06% in the Hong Kong market [5] - The price-to-earnings ratios for these companies are significantly low, with China Railway Construction at 3.61 times, indicating a historical valuation level that presents a potential investment opportunity [5] Regional Investment Opportunities - The Xinjiang region has seen substantial fixed asset investment growth due to the Western Development Policy, with over 2 trillion yuan allocated in transfer payments during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [5] - Major transportation infrastructure projects in Xinjiang, such as the New Tibet Railway and Duku Highway, are expected to drive demand for local construction firms and suppliers [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the liquor industry [1] Core Insights - The report analyzes the adjustment phases of the liquor industry, comparing the current phase with the 2013-2016 period, highlighting that the current adjustment is primarily driven by a decline in business demand, which is less severe than the previous round [3] - It emphasizes that the purchasing power of consumers for high-end liquor has significantly improved compared to the lowest price point in 2014, indicating a potential for market recovery [3] - The report identifies three major changes in the liquor market: increased concentration among top companies, the rise of sauce-flavored liquor, and improved market value management practices among liquor companies [3] Summary by Sections 1. Historical Adjustment Phases - The liquor industry has entered a fifth year of adjustment since 2021, with significant impacts from the 2025 policy aimed at reducing government consumption [8] - The report reviews the historical context of the 2013-2016 adjustment, noting that the current environment is different but shares some similarities [8] 2. Current Adjustment Stage - The report indicates that the liquor industry has been in a downward adjustment since the third quarter of 2024, with expectations for recovery around the second quarter of 2026 [42] - It highlights that the current adjustment is less severe than the previous one, with a maximum revenue decline of 5% and profit decline of 8% compared to the previous maximums of 15% and 30% respectively [50] 3. Market Changes Impacting Investment - The concentration of the top six liquor companies has increased significantly, with their revenue share rising from 18.3% in 2013 to 48.1% in 2024, enhancing industry self-regulation [51] - The report notes that the expansion of sauce-flavored liquor production capacity has not yet translated into revenue share, but it is expected to gain traction in the future [3] - It discusses the evolving market value management strategies among liquor companies, including increased dividend payouts and share buybacks, which are expected to enhance investor returns [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The weekly technical analysis of Treasury bond futures shows that the rebound is ongoing, and any adjustment is still an opportunity to participate. The rebound of T and TL may continue. Observing TL2512, it may currently be in the third wave of the rebound. There may be an adjustment next week, with the extreme downside position to watch around 114.8 - 114.9. After the decline, there may still be a fifth - wave upward movement, with the final target temporarily set above 116 and near the 60 - day moving average [2]. - The Treasury bond futures data tracking indicates that all contracts have risen, and it is advisable to seize the opportunity to participate in the cash - and - carry strategy [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Technical Analysis 1.1 Pre - trend Review - This week, T2512 fell on Monday, turned strongly upward after hitting the bottom on Tuesday, then oscillated strongly, and reached a short - term high on Friday. The Treasury bond futures briefly declined at the beginning of the week and then continued to rebound. Currently, the weekly line is close to the MA20 moving average, and the daily line is above the moving average system. The rebound that started on September 25 may still be ongoing [9]. 1.2 Future Market Outlook - TL2512 showed significantly increased elasticity on Thursday and Friday this week. There may be an adjustment next week, with the extreme downside position to watch around 114.8 - 114.9. After that, there may be a fifth - wave upward movement, and the overall rebound target is above 116 and near the 60 - day moving average. From the perspective of the TL2512 trend, it may currently be in the third wave of the rebound. Next week, there may be a fourth - wave adjustment, and the extreme downside position to watch is around the high point of the first wave at 114.8 - 114.9. If it is supported at this level, it may continue to rebound in the fifth wave [10]. 2. Weekly Tracking of Treasury Bond Futures - All Treasury bond futures contracts rose this week. As of the close on October 17, the closing prices of the 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures 2512 contracts were 102.378, 105.780, 108.295, and 115.87 yuan respectively, up 0.024, 0.130, 0.315, and 1.90 yuan from the previous week [16]. - The trading activity of Treasury bond futures increased overall this week. The average daily trading volume of the 2512 contracts of Treasury bond futures of each maturity increased overall compared with last week, except for TS. In terms of the trading volume/holding volume ratio, all increased except for TS. As of October 17, the holding volume of the 2512 contracts of Treasury bond futures increased across the board [16]. - As of October 17, the CTD net basis of the 2512 contracts of Treasury bond futures of each maturity declined across the board, with the CTD net basis of the 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year 2512 contracts being - 0.03, - 0.05, - 0.05, and - 0.07 yuan respectively. In terms of IRR, the IRR corresponding to the CTD of the 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year 2512 contracts were 1.56%, 1.71%, 1.72%, and 1.72% respectively, all of which increased. Currently, the IRR level is significantly higher than the funding rate, and overall, the value of participating in the cash - and - carry strategy has recovered, and one can seize the opportunity to participate. The spread performance of the 2512 - 2603 contracts was divergent this week, with the spreads of the 2 - year and 10 - year contracts rebounding and the spreads of the 5 - year and 30 - year contracts falling [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - **Important Information**: The first batch of fund Q3 reports were released, with the technology track remaining the "core position"; 8 new products were added to the personal pension fund list; many fund products ended fundraising early and conducted proportional配售 within the month [2] - **Market Review**: Last week (20251013 - 20251017), A - share market major broad - based indexes showed a downward trend. Overseas indexes mostly declined. For example, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.47% to 3839.76, and the Hang Seng Technology Index fell 7.98% [2] - **Fund Market Review**: Most active equity funds had negative returns last week, with a median return of - 4.18%. Financial real - estate and consumption theme funds performed well [2] - **ETF Fund Statistics**: The top three ETF categories in terms of performance last week were commodity futures (8.80%), international broad - based (0.38%), and bonds (0.11%). There were 585 ETFs with net capital inflows and 464 with net outflows [2] - **Fund Market Dynamics**: 37 public funds had new fund manager appointments, 10 new public funds were established with a total of 95.48 billion shares, 55 funds entered the issuance stage for the first time, and 41 funds were waiting to be issued [2] - **Equity Fund Issuance Tracking**: Last week, the issuance scale of equity funds reached 57.40 billion yuan, an increase of 48.88 billion yuan from the previous week. It is expected that new funds will bring incremental funds to industries such as electronics and power equipment and new energy [2] Summary by Directory 1 Important Information 1.1 Market Dynamics - **First Batch of Fund Q3 Reports**: As of October 17, 25 funds disclosed Q3 reports, including 18 equity funds. Technology - heavy funds performed well. Many fund managers still favored the growth technology sector [7] - **Gold Influx**: In the past 5 days, over 150 billion yuan flowed into the SGE Gold 9999 index. On October 16, commodity and Hong Kong market ETFs had net inflows [7][8] - **North Exchange Fund Dividends**: Many North Exchange funds made large - scale dividend distributions, such as the Wanjia North Exchange Huixuan Two - Year Fixed - Open Hybrid [8] - **Bond Fund Net Value Precision Adjustment**: In early October, bond funds had net outflows, and some fund managers increased the net value precision of bond funds to deal with large - scale redemptions [9] 1.2 Product Hotspots - **Personal Pension Fund Expansion**: On October 17, 8 new products were added to the personal pension fund list, including 5 index - enhanced funds, 2 FOF products, and 1 ETF connection fund [10] - **Early Fundraising End and Proportional Allocation**: In October, many funds ended fundraising early and some started proportional allocation, such as the E Fund Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Hybrid [11] - **CSI A500ETF Anniversary**: Since its launch in 2024, the CSI A500 index - related products have a total scale of over 300 billion yuan, and the index has outperformed some broad - based indexes [13] 1.3 Overseas/Overseas Market - **Brazilian Theme QDII**: E Fund and China Asset Management may launch two Brazilian theme QDIIs, which will track the Ibovespa index [13][15] - **Emerging Market Product Returns**: Most emerging market investment products have achieved double - digit returns this year, and some have doubled [15] 2 Market Review - A - share major broad - based indexes declined last week, and overseas indexes mostly fell. The banking and coal industries had the highest gains [16][18] 3 Fund Market Review 3.1 Active Equity Fund Performance - In the past week, financial real - estate and consumption theme funds performed well; in the past three months, technology and cycle theme funds led; in the past year, technology and manufacturing theme funds were outstanding [21] 3.2 Top - Performing Fund Performance Statistics - The top - performing active equity fund last week was Minsheng Jiayin Financial Selection A, with a return of 6.15% [25] 4 ETF Fund Statistics 4.1 ETF Fund Performance - Last week, the top - performing ETF categories were commodity futures, international broad - based, and bonds. The top - five performing ETFs were also listed [27][29] 4.2 ETF Fund Capital Flow Statistics - Last week, the top categories with net capital inflows were commodity futures, technology, and financial real - estate, while A - share broad - based ETFs had the largest outflows [30] 4.3 ETF Fund Premium and Discount Statistics - As of October 17, the top three ETFs with premium rates were Huaxia Feed Soybean Meal Futures ETF, Bosera Hang Seng Technology ETF, etc.; the top three with discount rates were Jiaotong 180 Governance ETF, etc. [35] 5 Fund Market Dynamics 5.1 Fund Manager Changes - 37 public funds had new fund manager appointments, involving 28 fund managers from 21 fund management companies. 39 funds had fund manager departures [37][40] 5.2 Newly Established Funds Last Week - 10 new public funds were established, with a total of 95.48 billion shares. The most numerous type was partial - stock hybrid funds [43] 5.3 First - Issued Funds Last Week - 55 public funds entered the issuance stage for the first time. The most numerous fund management companies were China Europe, China Asset Management, Hua'an, and Huatai - PineBridge. The most numerous type was passive index funds [45] 5.4 Funds to be Issued - As of October 19, 41 public funds were waiting to be issued [2] 5.5 Equity Fund Issuance Tracking - Last week, the issuance scale of equity funds increased. There are still 270 new funds in the position - building period, with an estimated 589.99 billion yuan yet to be invested [2]

Core Insights - The defense and military industry index experienced a decline of -4.70% over the past week, ranking 23rd out of 31 in the Shenwan primary industry [7][41] - The current PE-TTM for the defense and military industry is 83.33, which is at the 76.67 percentile compared to the past decade, indicating a relatively high valuation level [12][15] - The report highlights significant individual stock performances, with North China Long Dragon leading with an increase of 8.71% over the past week, while Guorui Technology saw a decline of -14.00% [17][41] Industry and Stock Market Review - The defense and military industry index has shown a decline of -1.92% over the past month, ranking 11th out of 31 [9][41] - Over the past year, the industry index has increased by 16.91%, ranking 19th out of 31 [3][41] - The trading volume for the defense and military industry reached 310.8 billion yuan this week, a year-on-year decrease of -8.63% but a week-on-week increase of +128.08% [31][34] Important Company Announcements - The report includes various significant announcements from companies in the defense sector, such as strategic cooperation agreements and stock repurchase plans [38] Industry News - Indonesia confirmed its plan to purchase Chinese-made J-10 fighter jets, with a defense budget of at least 9 billion USD approved [40][41] - Successful launches of low-orbit satellite internet groups and the sixth batch of the Qianfan constellation were reported, indicating advancements in commercial aerospace [40][42] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on key investment themes such as military trade, commercial aerospace, unmanned equipment, military AI, and low-altitude economy [43]