利率 | 股跌了，债为什么不涨？ 证券研究报告 固收定期报告 / 2025.11.23 核心观点 相关报告 1. 《流动性 | 月 末 资 金 的 规 律 ？ 》 2025-11-22 2. 《高频｜杭州新房销售回暖，开工率大多 下行 》 2025-11-22 3. 《固收 + ，加什么？ — — 资产篇》 2025-11-19 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ 分析师 孙彬彬 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020001 sunbb@ctsec.com 分析师 隋修平 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020003 ❖ 今年三季度股债跷跷板效应十分显著，但近期股市下跌时债市依旧较弱，为 什么？从宏观逻辑上，债市的增量利好有限、货币政策方向不明确是主要原 因；从机构行为角度，一方面是保险赎回固收+产品，另一方面是券商和农商 砸盘。展望未来，货币政策的基调是动态的，我们认为明年初降准降息的可 能性较高，而且从历史出发，无论是 12 月还是中央经济工作会议的日历效应 都很清晰，未来 1-3 周利率行情可能正式开启，建议把握做多机会。 ❖ 股市下跌主因：一是外围因素，隔夜美股大跌，再度引发全球市场对 AI 泡沫 的担忧 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights a strategic shift towards large financial and consumer sectors, indicating a rebound window following the maximum negative impact from equal tariffs [1][9] - The report emphasizes that the market is approaching a phase bottom, with short-term adjustments not altering the long-term upward trend, despite liquidity pressures from the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance [2][9] - Historical analysis of the U.S. stock market shows that significant downturns typically require major negative shocks, with expected maximum adjustments around 10% in the current context [3][10][11] Group 2 - The report notes that market volume has decreased, with transaction amounts falling below 20 trillion yuan, indicating a lack of momentum in market leadership [4][12] - It suggests that the current market adjustment presents a good opportunity for accumulation, focusing on sectors with favorable risk-reward ratios, such as real estate and resource commodities [4][13][14] - The report identifies mid-term investment opportunities in high-growth sectors, waiting for renewed confidence in high-prosperity segments like storage and AI [4][13][14]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company has shown a revenue growth of 8.2% year-on-year, reaching 28.36 billion yuan, which is slightly below Bloomberg's expectations by 3% [7] - The adjusted net profit margin reached 33.5%, exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 0.8% [7] - The company is expected to see adjusted net profit growth of 18.4%, 8.8%, and 8.6% for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 14.9, 13.7, and 12.6 [7] Financial Performance - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023A: 103.468 billion yuan - 2024A: 105.295 billion yuan - 2025E: 115.426 billion yuan - 2026E: 125.700 billion yuan - 2027E: 134.863 billion yuan - The net profit for the years is projected as: - 2023A: 29.417 billion yuan - 2024A: 29.698 billion yuan - 2025E: 36.339 billion yuan - 2026E: 39.555 billion yuan - 2027E: 43.252 billion yuan [6][7] Business Segments - The self-developed games segment generated revenue of 23.33 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.8% [7] - The cloud music segment reported revenue of 1.96 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.8% year-on-year [7] - The Youdao segment achieved revenue of 1.63 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.6% [7] Valuation Metrics - The company’s EPS for the upcoming years is projected as follows: - 2023A: 9.05 yuan - 2024A: 9.28 yuan - 2025E: 11.47 yuan - 2026E: 12.49 yuan - 2027E: 13.65 yuan - The P/E ratios are projected to be: - 2023A: 15.54 - 2024A: 14.91 - 2025E: 18.53 - 2026E: 17.03 - 2027E: 15.57 [6][8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - This week, the year-on-year decline in new home sales narrowed. The new home sales in second-tier cities formed a support, with Hangzhou's performance being outstanding, possibly affected by discounted sales and concentrated supply. The new home sales in second-tier cities were stronger than the same period last year, while those in first, third, and fourth-tier cities were still significantly weaker [3]. - Most commodity prices and production start rates declined. The investment and production situation was relatively stable during the off - season, and attention should be paid to the implementation of previous policies [3]. - Metro ridership and domestic flights remained at a high level, indicating strong consumer mobility. However, movie box - office sales were below the seasonal level [3]. - Pork, vegetable, and oil prices declined. The decline in vegetable prices was due to the recovery of supply after the temperature rose, and the decline in oil prices was due to the potential return of Russian oil and the cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [3]. - This week, SCFI declined while BDI increased. The US government shutdown led to a significant drop in freight rates on the North American route [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Real Estate Sales: New Home Sales in Second - Tier Cities Turned Positive Year - on - Year - From November 14th to November 20th, the new home sales area in 20 cities tracked by Wind increased by 23.78% week - on - week and decreased by 15.85% year - on - year. The new home sales in first - tier cities were weaker than the previous period, while those in second, third, and fourth - tier cities were significantly stronger. Second - tier cities' new home sales were stronger than the same period last year, while first, third, and fourth - tier cities' sales were still significantly weaker [3][8]. - In terms of key cities, most key cities' new home sales increased week - on - week, except for Shanghai (-17.62%) and Shenzhen (-7.54%). Hangzhou had a significant increase of 101.87%. Year - on - year, except for Hangzhou (105.64%), new home sales in other key cities were significantly weaker than last year [8]. - Second - hand home sales decreased week - on - week and the year - on - year decline narrowed. Among key cities, except for Hangzhou (1.42%), second - hand home sales in other key cities were slightly weaker than the previous period. Year - on - year, second - hand home sales in all key cities decreased significantly [8]. 2. Investment: Most Commodity Prices Declined - Most commodity prices declined this week. The price of rebar increased slightly due to stable demand, supply contraction, and inventory decline. The price of asphalt decreased slightly as the cost support weakened with the decline of crude oil, and supply increased during the off - season. The cement price decreased slightly because rainy weather inhibited construction and demand was weak. The glass futures price declined due to stable supply, weak demand, and high inventory pressure [3][34]. 3. Production: Most Start Rates Declined - Most production start rates declined this week. The start rates of petroleum asphalt, automobile tires, and PTA decreased. The blast furnace start rate of steel mills decreased slightly, the start rate of coking enterprises increased, and the start rate of polyester filament increased slightly [3][42]. 4. Consumption: Strong Mobility - Consumer mobility was strong. Metro ridership, domestic flights, and automobile consumption were above the seasonal level, while movie box - office sales were below the seasonal level [3][50]. 5. Export: SCFI Declined, BDI Increased - This week, the SCFI index declined, the BDI index increased, the port throughput decreased, and the CRB spot index declined slightly. The US government shutdown led to weak transportation demand and a significant drop in freight rates on the North American route [3][57]. 6. Prices: Pork, Vegetable, and Oil Prices Declined - This week, pork, vegetable, and oil prices declined. Vegetable prices decreased slightly as the supply recovered with the temperature rise and vegetables from multiple production areas were concentrated on the market. The decline in oil prices was due to the potential return of Russian oil and the cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. The rebar price increased slightly [3][61].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the construction of an AI-based low-frequency index enhancement strategy using deep learning frameworks to build alpha and risk models [3] Market Index Performance - As of November 21, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.90%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 5.13%, and the CSI 300 dropped by 3.77%, indicating a significant decline in market sentiment [5][8] - Year-to-date performance shows the CSI 300 Index has risen by 13.2%, while the CSI 300 enhanced portfolio has increased by 23.7%, resulting in an excess return of 10.5% [20] Index Enhancement Fund Performance - For the week ending November 21, 2025, the CSI 300 index enhancement fund reported an excess return ranging from -1.07% (minimum) to 3.22% (maximum), with a median of 0.29% [12][13] - Year-to-date, the CSI 500 index has increased by 19.1%, while the enhanced portfolio has risen by 26.7%, yielding an excess return of 7.7% [25][26] Tracking Portfolio Performance - The report outlines the construction of enhanced portfolios for the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices using deep learning frameworks, with weekly rebalancing and a maximum turnover rate of 10% [16] - The CSI 1000 index has shown a year-to-date increase of 18.6%, while the enhanced portfolio has risen by 32.9%, resulting in an excess return of 14.2% [37][38]

Core Insights - The report indicates that after the favorable news has been fully priced in, the market is experiencing a weak bullish phase, leading to profit-taking concerns and subsequent global asset adjustments [4][10] - Recent market movements show significant declines in major indices, with the S&P and Nasdaq dropping 1.6% and 2.2% respectively, while A-shares and Asian markets also faced pressure [4][10] - The report highlights that despite positive catalysts such as Nvidia's earnings and strong non-farm payroll data, bearish sentiments persist, particularly regarding technology stocks and valuation concerns [4][10] Market Overview - The report notes that both the US and Chinese markets have entered a period of observation and adjustment, with a focus on profit-taking and healthy corrections [5][11] - It emphasizes that after sustained increases, both markets require a period of rest to better prepare for the next upward movement, with A-shares particularly positioned for future gains based on upcoming earnings [5][11] - The report identifies that the banking and dividend sectors have shown significant excess returns, with state-owned banks and dividend stocks outperforming by 10.0%, 8.7%, 6.5%, and 3.7% respectively since November [5][12] Future Outlook - The long-term trends for both US and Chinese stock markets, including technology sectors, remain unchanged, with several factors supporting this view [6][13] - For A-shares, the report outlines four key aspects: supportive policy towards capital markets, a weak recovery trend, continued liquidity improvements, and strong top-level policy support for the technology sector [6][13] - The report anticipates potential scenarios for A-shares in December, including unexpected policy support or structural adjustments leading to a market rally, with a focus on technology growth stocks [7][14]

Employment Data - In September, non-farm employment increased by 119,000, but the previous values for July and August were revised down by a total of 33,000[4] - The education, healthcare, and leisure/hospitality sectors were the main contributors to job growth, with government and construction sectors seeing the largest increases of 44,000 and 33,000 jobs respectively[5] - The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.4%, marking the highest level since the end of 2021, primarily due to an increase in labor force participation[12] Wage Growth - Average hourly earnings in September saw a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, while year-on-year growth remained stable at 3.8%[15] - The highest year-on-year wage growth was observed in the business services and financial sectors, at 4.8% and 4.5% respectively[15] - Wage growth has been declining since November 2024, indicating a decrease in workers' bargaining power[15] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor supply is exceeding demand, with the labor demand gap widening to -157,000 in August, indicating more unemployed individuals than job vacancies[12] - The U6 unemployment rate slightly decreased to 8%, reflecting stabilization in the marginal labor market[12] - The market's expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has increased to 40%, although this is a significant drop from the previous week[19] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected inflation increases, tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, and a downturn in the U.S. economy[22]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Lenovo Group is maintained at "Buy" [2] Core Views - Lenovo Group's revenue for FY25/26Q2 increased by 14.6% year-on-year to $20.45 billion, exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 1.7% [8] - The company's adjusted net profit rose by 26.7% year-on-year to $510 million, surpassing Bloomberg's forecast by 0.3% [8] - The AI PC segment is accelerating its penetration, with a penetration rate reaching 33% [8] - The mobile phone business achieved record sales, with revenue of $15.11 billion, exceeding expectations by 3.7% and showing a year-on-year growth of 11.8% [8] - The Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG) reported strong order reserves, with revenue of $4.09 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23.7% [8] - The Solutions and Services Group (SSG) achieved record quarterly revenue of $2.56 billion, marking 18 consecutive quarters of double-digit growth [8] - Future adjusted net profit growth is projected at 16.9%, 9.9%, and 13.3% for FY25/26, FY26/27, and FY27/28, respectively [8] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections (in million USD): - 2024A: 56,864 - 2025A: 69,077 - 2026E: 77,184 - 2027E: 82,925 - 2028E: 89,545 - Net profit projections (in million USD): - 2024A: 1,011 - 2025A: 1,384 - 2026E: 1,649 - 2027E: 1,891 - 2028E: 2,137 - EPS projections (in CNY): - 2024A: 0.08 - 2025A: 0.11 - 2026E: 0.13 - 2027E: 0.15 - 2028E: 0.17 - PE ratios: - 2025A: 11.89 - 2026E: 9.38 - 2027E: 8.18 - 2028E: 7.23 [5][9]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading player in the affordable casual dining sector, focusing on high cost-performance ratio in new Huizhou cuisine, with a strong supply chain and direct operation model facilitating rapid expansion [8][19]. - The company has shown impressive financial performance, with a revenue of 2.71 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.5%, and a net profit of 380 million yuan, up 35.7% year-on-year [8]. - The casual dining market is highly fragmented, and the company is expected to increase its market share due to its competitive advantages [8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, founded in 2013, specializes in affordable Huizhou cuisine, with a focus on quality ingredients and healthy cooking methods [13]. - As of the end of 2024, the company operates 667 stores, primarily in 14 provinces across China [13][19]. Industry Overview - The casual dining market in China is experiencing robust growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.8% from 2018 to 2023, outpacing the mid-to-high-end dining segment [39]. - The market for affordable casual dining is projected to grow at a CAGR of 8.9% over the next five years, driven by consumer demand for value [46]. Competitive Advantages - The company has established a comprehensive supply chain, ensuring high-quality and stable supply at low costs through centralized procurement [59]. - The direct operation model allows for consistent quality and service across all locations, with a focus on employee training and retention [19][59]. Financial Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 6.08 billion yuan, 7.60 billion yuan, and 9.31 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 753 million yuan, 961 million yuan, and 1.20 billion yuan [7][8]. - The projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for these years are 15, 12, and 9 times, respectively [8].

Group 1: Market Overview - Historical bull markets in A-shares have seen incremental capital exceeding CNY 1 trillion, with major rallies surpassing CNY 3 trillion, indicating potential for further capital influx in the current cycle[5] - Since September 2024, the current bull market has seen leverage and insurance funds contribute significantly, with current increments accounting for 87% and 73% of the 2015 and 2021 bull markets respectively[5][9] Group 2: Capital Contributions - Leverage funds and insurance capital have been the primary contributors, with insurance capital increasing its stock and securities holdings by approximately CNY 1.5 trillion from Q3 2024 to Q3 2025[6][13] - Leverage funds have seen inflows of nearly CNY 1.1 trillion since September 2024, representing about 60% of the 2015 inflow[6][13] Group 3: Fund Issuance and Performance - From September 2024 to present, active fund issuance has exceeded CNY 140 billion, showing signs of recovery as fund net values improve[6][31] - Despite market uptrends, net redemptions have outpaced subscriptions, although ETF subscriptions have provided temporary support against active fund redemptions[6][16] Group 4: Foreign Capital Trends - Foreign capital saw rapid inflows at the end of September 2024 but has since turned to outflows, with passive foreign capital showing a trend of inflow of nearly CNY 50 billion since June 2025[6][19] Group 5: Future Outlook - Fund issuance is expected to recover, with insurance capital likely to continue contributing significant increments due to regulatory support for equity investments[7][30] - The proportion of actively managed funds with net values above 1 is expected to accelerate fund issuance once it exceeds 80%[7][31] Group 6: Risk Factors - Risks include potential U.S. economic recession, unexpected overseas financial risks, and the possibility of historical experience failing to predict current market behavior[8][42]