国防军工 / 行业专题报告 / 2024.11.07 航空装备稳定放量,航海装备景气持续 因投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12月市场表现 分析师 佘炜超 SAC 证书编号: S0160522080002 shewc@ctsec.com 杨博星 联系人 yangbx@ctsec.com 相关报告 1.《按图索骥 -- 构架低空从政策端到 产业链的桥梁（系列之三: 华中、西南、 西北、东北篇)》 2024-09-10 2. 《国防军工周报(2024/08/31- 2024/09/07)》 3. 《军工行业业绩分化明显,航海荣备 景气持续》 2024-09-05 国防军工行业 2024 年三季报业绩综述 核心观点 ■ 证券研究报告 � 国防军工营收、归母净利润及增速居于中下游:3Q2024，国防军工行业 营业收入 3762.9 亿元,在 31 个中万一级行业中排名第 25;营业收入增速为- 5.4%，排名第 25;归母净利润为 213.4 亿元，排名第 24;归母净利润同比增 速为-27.91%，排名第 25。 i 航空蒙备稳定放量,航天装备景气度短期走弱:航空黄各,3Q2024 实现 营收 1646.0 亿元，归 ...

数据来源:wind 数据,财通证券研究所 半导体 / 行业深度分析报告 / 2024.11.07 行业复苏分化加深,静待需 因 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12月市场表现 分析师 张益敏 SAC 证书编号： S0160522070002 zhangym02@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《半导体市场稳步复苏,下半年有望 继续发力》 2024-08-21 2. 《景气度呈现复苏态势,国产替代集 中 发力》 2024-05-23 3. 《行业景气复苏，覆钢板迎接新一轮 涨价周期》 2024-05-05 ig �� og 核心观点 半导体供应链行业报告 ■ 证券研究报告 �� 美国市场驱动半导体月度销售金额高速增长:根据美国半导体行业协会 (SIA)统计,2024年8月全球半导体销售金额 531.2 亿美元,同比增长 20.6%, 环比增长 3.5%。其中美洲市场 8月约为 165.6 亿美元,同比增长 43.9%,环 比增长 7.5%,是全球市场复苏的主要推动力。中国半导体市场 8月份销售金 额 154.8 亿美元，同比增长 19.2%，环比增长 1.7%。 存储器需求相对平缓,产品价格短期承压:受消费市 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a 19.5% year-on-year increase in revenue and a 24.5% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2024. In Q3 2024, revenue and net profit increased by 13.4% and 13.6% respectively, with improved net profit margin driven by enhanced gross sales [2][5] - The company is expected to benefit from structural growth in the domestic market, particularly in the 100-300 RMB price range, with a strong likelihood of achieving its revenue targets for 2024 [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - As of November 7, 2024, the closing price is 219.06 RMB, with a circulating share capital of 5.29 billion shares and a net asset value per share of 45.20 RMB [2] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 54.6 billion RMB, a 24.6% increase year-on-year, with a cash collection rate of 103.74% [4] Revenue and Profit Growth - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected to reach 239.4 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 18.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 54.8 billion RMB, reflecting a 19.4% increase [5][6] - The revenue growth rates for the years 2024 to 2026 are forecasted at 18.2%, 12.3%, and 13.9% respectively, while net profit growth rates are expected to be 19.4%, 16.5%, and 19.3% [6] Market Dynamics - The company’s product structure is shifting towards the 100-300 RMB range, with significant growth in the sales of aged raw liquor products, particularly "Gu 8" and "Gu 16," which saw growth rates exceeding 30% [3] - The company has completed its revenue collection tasks in most regions within Anhui province, with progress in other provinces ranging from 70% to 90% [3] Cost and Margin Analysis - In Q3 2024, the net profit margin increased by 0.17 percentage points to 23.1%, although the gross margin decreased by 1.55 percentage points due to changes in product mix and increased channel expenses [4] - The company has focused its expense optimization efforts on the consumer end, leading to a decrease in sales and management expense ratios [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has fully implemented the "Starlink Plan," achieving breakeven in its specialized vehicle assembly business. The sales volume of the Starlink Lighthouse Pioneer Group increased by 20.14% year-on-year, with revenue up by 21.18% [5] - The company reported a revenue of 15.823 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 19.14%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 843 million yuan, down 63.00% year-on-year [4] - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 15.77%, a decrease of 3.03 percentage points year-on-year, while the company maintained good expense control [4] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 15.823 billion yuan, down 19.14% year-on-year, and a net profit of 843 million yuan, down 63.00% year-on-year [4] - The third quarter alone saw revenue of 5.124 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.98% year-on-year, and a net profit of 280 million yuan, down 26.50% year-on-year [4] - The company expects net profits for 2024-2026 to be 1.08 billion, 1.205 billion, and 1.359 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 18.52, 16.61, and 14.73 [6] Business Segment Performance - The specialized vehicle assembly business saw a significant year-on-year sales increase of 38.64% and revenue growth of 25.09%, achieving breakeven in the first three quarters of 2024 [5] - The North American business has resumed operations with container chassis deliveries, ranking 11th globally in the 2024 Global Trailer OEM rankings with nearly 23,500 units produced [5] - The company is actively exploring new markets and optimizing product delivery cycles in Europe and other regions, while maintaining growth in the Australian market [5]

拓普集团(601689) / 汽车零部件 / 公司点评 / 2024.11.07 因 投资评级:买入(维持) | --- | --- | |-------------------|------------| | 基本數据 | 2024-11-06 | | 收盘价(元) | 48.32 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 16.86 | | 每股净资产(元) | 11.07 | | 总股本(亿股) | 16 86 | | 最近 12月市场表现 | | 邢重阳 分析师 SAC 证书编号： S0160522110003 xingcy01@ctsec.com 李渤 分析师 SAC 证书编号: S0160521050001 libo(@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《2024Q2 业绩同比高增长，费用管 控成效显著》 2024-08-29 核心观点 ■ 证券研究报告 事件:2024年10月28日公司发布 2024 年三季度报告,3Q2024 公司实现营 业收入 71.30 亿元,同比+42.85%;实现归母净利润 7.78 亿元,同比+54.63%; 实现扣非归母净利润 7.27 亿元，同比+53.68%。 毛利率承压 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 7.048 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.65%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 153 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.77% [3] - The company's scenic spot business is under pressure, with Wuzhen receiving 5.9934 million visitors, a year-on-year decrease of 2.68%, and Gubei Water Town receiving 1.0025 million visitors, a year-on-year decrease of 10.55% [4] - The exhibition business saw significant profit growth, and the travel agency business benefited from the recovery of outbound tourism [5] Financial Performance and Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 10.375 billion yuan, 11.908 billion yuan, and 12.877 billion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with net profit attributable to the parent company of 191 million yuan, 228 million yuan, and 263 million yuan [6] - The PE ratios for 2024-2026 are projected to be 39.4x, 32.9x, and 28.5x, respectively [6] - Revenue growth rates for 2024-2026 are forecasted at 7.68%, 14.77%, and 8.14%, respectively [7] - Net profit growth rates for 2024-2026 are expected to be -1.79%, 19.51%, and 15.52%, respectively [7] Business Segment Analysis - Wuzhen Scenic Area generated revenue of 1.325 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 4.36%, with a net profit of 265 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.32% [4] - Gubei Water Town generated revenue of 429 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 21.38% [4] - CYTS Boliand achieved revenue of 1.323 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 5.46%, but net profit increased significantly to 24.2938 million yuan due to improved management efficiency [5] - Strategic investment business remained stable, with Chuangge Technology achieving revenue of 2.574 billion yuan and net profit of 38.8879 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2024 [5] Financial Ratios and Metrics - The company's ROE is expected to be 3.02%, 3.56%, and 4.06% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [7] - The PB ratios for 2024-2026 are projected to be 1.19x, 1.17x, and 1.16x, respectively [7] - The dividend payout ratio is expected to increase from 31% in 2023 to 52%, 61%, and 68% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [9]

众信旅游(002707) / 旅游及景区 / 公司点评 / 2024.11.07 出境游业务稳步修复，线下门店有望加速 因 投资评级:增持(维持) | --- | --- | |-------------------|------------| | 基本數据 | 2024-11-06 | | 收盘价(元) | 7.67 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 8.25 | | 每股净资产(元) | 0.90 | | 总股本(亿股) | 9.83 | | 最近 12月市场表现 | | 189 刘洋 分析师 SAC 证书编号: S0160521120001 liuyang()1@ctsec.com 相关报告 核心观点 ■ 证券研究报告 8 事件：公司发布 2024 年三季报。公司 2024 年前三季度实现收入 47.23 亿 元，同比增长 130.05%；实现归母净利润 1.23 亿元，同比增长 773.86%。 i 国庆假期预定情况延续高增态势。根据众信旅游集团十一黄金周出游趋势 报告,截止9月5日,从众信旅游集团 2024年十一黄金周假期国内、国外综 合报名情况来看,产品丰富度较去年同期提升约 50%,众信旅游约增加了 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - In Q3 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 201.125 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.04%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 11.607 billion yuan, up 11.47% year-on-year. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 10.877 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.67% [3][4] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 22.12%, an increase of 0.23 percentage points year-on-year. The sales expense ratio was 4.77%, up 0.83 percentage points, primarily due to increased advertising and depreciation expenses. The management expense ratio was 2.34%, up 0.21 percentage points, while the R&D expense ratio was 6.81%, down 0.04 percentage points. The financial expense ratio was 0.48%, an increase of 0.58 percentage points, mainly due to exchange rate fluctuations affecting foreign exchange gains and losses [3][4] - The company is actively advancing its overseas localization production process, with plans for its Uzbekistan factory to produce two popular plug-in hybrid models, aiming for an annual production capacity of 50,000 units. Additionally, the company has completed its factory in Thailand, which has an annual production capacity of approximately 150,000 vehicles [4] - The company expects to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 38.510 billion yuan, 47.290 billion yuan, and 56.218 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 22.69, 18.48, and 15.54 times [4][5] Financial Summary - For 2024, the company is projected to have operating revenue of 765.146 billion yuan, with a revenue growth rate of 27.03%. The net profit is expected to be 38.510 billion yuan, reflecting a net profit growth rate of 28.19% [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 13.24 yuan, with a projected P/E ratio of 22.69 [5] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 23.30% in 2024, with a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 5.29 [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.054 billion yuan for Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.85%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 201 million yuan, up 27.31% year-on-year, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 185 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 19.44% year-on-year [2] - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 17.74%, a decrease of 4.25 percentage points year-on-year. The company managed to reduce its financial expense ratio to 0.33%, down 0.47 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to increased interest income from financial products [2] - The company has been focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvement, leading to a significant increase in orders and customer trust. The overseas business has also shown remarkable profitability improvements [2] - The company received a notification from a European automotive manufacturer for a new energy vehicle thermal management product, expected to start mass production in 2026, with an anticipated annual sales increase of approximately 56 million yuan [2] Financial Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 833 million yuan, 1.164 billion yuan, and 1.491 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 19.92, 14.26, and 11.13 times [3] - Revenue projections for the years 2024 to 2026 are 13.331 billion yuan, 16.726 billion yuan, and 19.701 billion yuan, with growth rates of 20.99%, 25.47%, and 17.79% respectively [3]

中国中免(601888) / 旅游零售Ⅱ / 公司点评 / 2024.11.07 口岸免税维持高增,关注四季度起市内人 因 投资评级:买入(维持) | --- | --- | |-------------------|------------| | 基本數据 | 2024-11-06 | | 收盘价(元) | 72.65 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 20.69 | | 每股净资产(元) | 26.21 | | 总股本(亿股) | 20.69 | | 最近 12月市场表现 | | 刘洋 分析师 SAC 证书编号: S0160521120001 liuyang()1@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《关注市内免税新政催化,中免具备 先发优势》 2024-09-02 2. 《业绩表现符合预期，关注盈利能力 核心观点 ■ 证券研究报告 8 事件:公司发布 2024 年三季报。公司 2024 年前三季度实现营业总收入 430.21 亿元，同比下降 15.38%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润 39.19 亿元, 同比下降 24.72%。 of 公司持续增强畅销商品供应,拓宽商品边界。公司三季度业绩承压主要 系海南旅游 ...