Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Positive" for the shipping and port industry [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant changes in Iran's domestic situation following the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei due to a joint airstrike by the US and Israel, which has led to a potential increase in compliant oil demand [3]. - The global average daily crude oil shipping export volume is projected to be approximately 39.3 million barrels per day in 2025, with Iran contributing around 1.6 million barrels per day, accounting for about 4.1% of the total [3]. - OPEC+ is expected to increase production by 206,000 barrels per day starting in April 2026, which is slightly above previous expectations and is seen as beneficial for compliant oil shipping demand [3]. - The current spot freight rate for VLCC TD3C has exceeded $200,000 per day, and the one-year charter rate for VLCC is approaching $120,000 per day, indicating a potential increase in the bargaining power of shipowners due to heightened geopolitical risks [3]. - The report recommends core stocks such as China Merchants Energy Shipping and COSCO Shipping Energy, which are expected to benefit from increased oil tanker capacity and significant earnings elasticity [3]. Summary by Sections Recent Market Performance - The report notes a recent market performance of -8% for the shipping and port sector compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [2]. Related Reports - The report references previous analyses, including the impact of India's cessation of Russian oil purchases on the oil shipping industry and the resonance of geopolitical events with industry supply and demand [3].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the shift towards "HALO trading" in both US and A-share markets, moving away from high-valuation tech stocks to lower-valuation, asset-heavy sectors due to concerns over tech valuations and potential AI disruptions [2][5][6] - The report identifies "HALO assets" as a strategic choice for long-term investors who prefer stability over chasing tech stocks, highlighting the importance of selecting high-quality investments within this category [6][7] - It suggests two investment strategies: offensive and defensive HALO approaches, allowing investors to diversify their portfolios while managing risk [6][7] A-share HALO Trading - A-share HALO assets are characterized by their cyclical, stable, and heavy manufacturing nature, which become attractive when their valuation advantages are clear [6] - The report advises careful selection within HALO investments, focusing on those with strong cash flows and solid long-term barriers to entry [6] Fund Grouping Perspective - The report outlines two strategies for fund grouping: defensive selections with low correlation to mainline stocks and offensive selections targeting sectors with potential growth catalysts [6] - Historical data indicates that a three-year investment horizon can yield significant excess returns when following these strategies [6] Configuration Directions - Offensive HALO investments include sectors benefiting from price increases and international expansion, such as agricultural chemicals, high-end manufacturing, and brokerage firms [7] - Defensive HALO investments focus on industries with low holdings, such as coal and construction, and sectors with low correlation to technology, like petrochemicals [7] Top Stock Picks - The report lists ten recommended stocks, including TCL Electronics, ShouLiu Hotel, Anjui Food, Muyuan Foods, Qibin Group, New Town Holdings, COSCO Shipping Energy, Daimai Co., Chipone Technology, and Lenovo Group, highlighting their potential for growth [3][4]

分析师 张伟 SAC 证书编号：S0160525060002 zhangwei04@ctsec.com 分析师 万琦 SAC 证书编号：S0160525090007 wanqi@ctsec.com 霍尔木兹海峡对原油的意义 证券研究报告 宏观点评 / 2026.03.02 相关报告 1. 《央行出手干预，延缓人民币升值速度》 2026-02-27 2. 《 年轻人的春节：反向过年与里子消费》 2026-02-25 3. 《夹在财政和通胀之间的"虚空造牌"》 2026-02-24 核心观点 ❖ 风险提示：地缘冲突升级风险；全球经济增长承压；市场过度定价风险。 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ ❖ 2026 年 2 月 28 日中东地缘冲突进入新阶段，霍尔木兹海峡遭伊朗封锁，全 球能源市场面临供给冲击风险。霍尔木兹海峡具备极为重要的战略地位，是 主要海湾产油国通往国际市场的核心海上通道，承担全球超 25%海上石油贸 易量。历史上，伊朗曾多次在战争或制裁背景下威胁封锁霍尔木兹海峡，此前 从未实施过真正意义上的全面关闭。本次实行物理封锁，海峡航运已近乎停 滞，区域船舶战争险保费暴涨，全球能源运输成本与供应风险急剧抬升。 ❖ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In February, the index showed high - level fluctuations. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose by about 0.89% in February, significantly lower than the 5.82% increase in January. The convertible bond market was still in a range of systematic over - valuation and high volatility. After mid - February, the median full - scale conversion premium rate and implied volatility declined from local highs [3]. - In terms of style, the valuation of equity - biased convertible bonds compressed significantly by 5.91pct after the Spring Festival, more than that of debt - biased, balanced, and super debt - biased convertible bonds. This was due to profit - taking and the high concentration of positions after the pre - Spring Festival rally, as well as the pre - emptive risk - avoidance of potential callable bonds [3]. - In terms of industry allocation, there was a style switch in February. Sectors such as media, home appliances, national defense and military industry, steel, and consumer services showed strong elasticity, while some previously soaring technology sectors entered a phase of consolidation or high - level fluctuations [3]. - On the supply and demand side, under the new refinancing regulations, the supply side may gradually improve. In February, the convertible bond market had a net exit, but the monthly acceptance speed of new bonds was the highest since the "827" new policy in 2023 and the new "Nine - Point Plan" in 2024 [3]. - In March, the convertible bond market is expected to fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to select bonds structurally in the fluctuations. Given the high valuation and geopolitical conflicts, the risk appetite may contract periodically. It is advisable to wait for the valuation to decline before going long [3]. - The top ten convertible bonds recommended for March are Libo, Huayi, Wankai, Hengyi, Haoyuan, Liyang, Huachen, Ruike, Jingce 2, and Zhongbei [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2 - month Convertible Bond Market Review - Index performance: In February, the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose by about 0.89% and closed at 525.2 points on February 27, significantly lower than the 5.82% increase in January. Before the Spring Festival (February 2 - 13), it rose to 526.44 points with a stage increase of about +3.61%. After the Spring Festival (February 24 - 27), it fell to 525.20 points, down about - 1.05% [7]. - Comparison with mainstream stock indexes: It underperformed small - cap stocks but was stronger than broad - based indexes. Its elasticity in February was between the CSI 300 and the CSI 1000, with a lower increase than the CSI 1000 (+3.71%) but higher than the CSI 300 (+0.09%) [7]. - Valuation: The convertible bond market was still systematically over - valued and highly volatile. As of February 27, 2026, the 100 - yuan premium rate was about 36.6%, corresponding to about the 97th percentile since 2018. After mid - February, the median full - scale conversion premium rate and implied volatility declined from local highs [10][11]. - Style valuation: The valuation of equity - biased convertible bonds compressed significantly by 5.91pct after the Spring Festival, mainly due to profit - taking and high - concentration risk, as well as the pre - emptive risk - avoidance of potential callable bonds [11]. - Industry allocation: There was a style switch in February. Media, home appliances, etc. showed strong elasticity, while some technology sectors entered a phase of consolidation. Financial and consumer sectors had mixed performance [12]. - Capital: In February, the holding face - value of Shanghai - listed convertible bonds and exchangeable bonds by insurance institutions (- 8.36%), QFII&RQFII (- 7.50%), etc. decreased significantly. The decline in the holdings of enterprise annuities and insurance may explain the valuation compression at the end of February [15]. - Supply: In February, the convertible bond market had a net exit of 66.53 billion yuan, with a month - end scale of 523.6 billion yuan. Three new convertible bonds were listed, and seven issuance plans were accepted, reaching the highest number since 2023. Under the new refinancing regulations, the supply may increase in the future [18]. 3.2 March: Structuring in Convertible Bond Fluctuations - Market outlook: In March, the convertible bond market is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Given the high valuation and geopolitical conflicts, the risk appetite may contract periodically. It is necessary to focus on defense and control drawdowns, and wait for the valuation to decline before going long [21]. - Market rhythm: The spring market has entered the "second half". The Two Sessions and the first - quarter reports will shift the market from "expectation - driven" to "performance - verified". In the medium term, the "broad fiscal + broad monetary" pattern remains unchanged, and convertible bonds still have allocation value [21]. - Market risks: Geopolitical conflicts may lead to oil price increases, which may impact the market through the oil - inflation - interest rate - stock market sentiment chain. The current high valuation makes the convertible bond market sensitive to equity market fluctuations and clause changes [22]. - Investment strategy: Adopt a "defense - first, balanced - structure" approach. Control positions to avoid excessive exposure at high valuations. Shift from high - elasticity to balanced and undervalued allocations. Pay attention to clause risks of medium - priced, near - maturity, and high - redemption - progress bonds [23]. 3.3 Individual Bonds: Top Ten Convertible Bonds in March - Defense - end bonds: Focus on medium - priced, large - cap, high - credit, low - premium, and liquid balanced or debt - biased convertible bonds, such as those related to banks, public utilities, high - dividend leaders, and some resource leaders [24]. - Offense - end bonds: Select individual bonds in high - growth sectors such as technology and resource sectors, avoiding those driven solely by valuation. The recommended ten convertible bonds are Libo, Huayi, Wankai, Hengyi, Haoyuan, Liyang, Huachen, Ruike, Jingce 2, and Zhongbei [24]. 3.4 Market One - Week Performance - Index performance: As of Friday's close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.98% to 4162.88 points, and the CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 0.23% to 525.20 points. The top - three rising sectors in the stock market were steel (11.80%), non - ferrous metals (9.74%), and basic chemicals (6.21%); the top - three falling sectors were media (- 4.44%), consumer services (- 4.02%), and food and beverages (- 1.50%) [26]. - Convertible bond performance: 169 convertible bonds rose, accounting for 46%. The top - five gainers were Aiwei Convertible Bond (72.02%), Youcai Convertible Bond (21.16%), etc.; the bottom - five losers were Huicheng Convertible Bond (- 18.37%), Weidao Convertible Bond (- 16.84%), etc. 59 convertible bonds' conversion premium rates increased, accounting for 16%. The top - five in valuation change were Shuangliang Convertible Bond (21.69%), Youcai Convertible Bond (14.41%), etc.; the bottom - five were Honglu Convertible Bond (- 61.04%), Ruike Convertible Bond (- 25.73%), etc. [28] 3.5 Important Shareholders' Convertible Bond Reduction - This week, Diou Water issued a convertible bond reduction announcement. Many companies' major shareholders have reduced their holdings of convertible bonds [35][36]. 3.6 Convertible Bond Issuance Progress - This week, Opto - Technology Co., Ltd. (1.38 billion yuan) and Shenling Environment Co., Ltd. (1 billion yuan) passed the general meeting of shareholders; Zuoli Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (1.556 billion yuan) and Zhenyu Technology Co., Ltd. (1.88 billion yuan) were accepted by the exchange [37][38]. 3.7 Private EB Project Update - This week, there was no progress update on private EB projects [38]. 3.8 Style & Strategy: Small - scale, Low - rated, Debt - biased Bonds Prevail - This week, the small - scale, low - rated, debt - biased style of the convertible bond market was dominant. As of the last trading day of this week, the excess return of high - rated convertible bonds relative to low - rated ones was - 0.57pct, that of large - scale relative to small - scale was - 0.03pct, and that of equity - biased relative to debt - biased was - 0.04pct [39]. 3.9 One - Week Convertible Bond Valuation Performance: Fluctuation of 100 - yuan Premium Rate - The 100 - yuan premium rate of the convertible bond market fluctuated upward this week. As of the last trading day of this week, it reached 36.59%, up 0.69% from the last trading day before the holiday, at the 98.3% historical percentile in the past six months and 99.2% in the past year. The median full - scale conversion premium rate decreased by 4.86pct to 29.17%, and the market - value - weighted conversion premium rate (excluding banks) decreased by 3.28pct to 41.5% [46]. - Extreme pricing: As of the last trading day of this week, there was 1 convertible bond below par value, 1 below the bond floor, and 1 with a YTM greater than 3%, at the 11%, 20.7%, and 4% historical percentiles since 2016 respectively [51]. - YTM: The median YTM of bank convertible bonds was - 5.69%, 7.51pct lower than the 3 - year AAA corporate bond yield; the median YTM of AA - to AA + debt - biased convertible bonds was - 4.89%, 6.9pct lower than the 3 - year AA corporate bond yield [51].

Group 1: Market Performance - The construction index increased by 6.08%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which rose by 2.67%, resulting in a 3.41 percentage point lead for the construction sector[5] - Notable stock performances included Roman Holdings (+38%), Hualan Group (+17%), and Huadian Science and Technology (+17%) among others[11] Group 2: Recovery Indicators - As of February 25, 2026, the national construction resumption rate was 8.9%, a year-on-year increase of 1.5 percentage points; labor utilization rate was 15.5%, up by 3.7 percentage points; and funding availability rate was 29%, an increase of 9.4 percentage points[6] - The issuance of special bonds reached 824.2 billion yuan in January-February 2026, a year-on-year increase of 38%[6] Group 3: Government Initiatives - Local governments are optimistic about project commencement, with some provinces setting hard targets for project initiation rates exceeding 50% in Q1 2026[7] - Major provinces like Jiangsu and Shandong have increased their planned investment in significant projects for 2026, indicating a proactive approach to infrastructure development[9] Group 4: Sector Focus - The geopolitical situation, particularly the U.S. actions against Iran, is expected to benefit the construction and chemical sectors due to potential supply constraints and rising prices[10] - The coal chemical sector is anticipated to gain importance as energy security becomes a priority, with significant projects in Xinjiang valued at 866.8 billion yuan under consideration[10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the current market, the clear - direction and easy - choice stage may have passed. For the US stock market, although the technology sector has good performance and continuous capital investment, its valuation is high, and there are uncertainties such as the sustainability of capital expenditure and the impact of AI on software/light - asset industries. Thus, the market has turned to HALO trading (heavy - asset and low - obsolescence) as a substitute and hedge for technology holdings [3]. - In the A - share market, HALO assets (cyclical/stable/heavy - asset manufacturing) also have high long - term investment value when their valuation is cost - effective, and are important alternative choices for investors who do not want to fully chase the technology sector. From the perspective of fund clustering, there are two strategies: offensive and defensive [4]. - The configuration directions include offensive HALO (such as industries related to price increase and overseas expansion) and defensive HALO (such as low - holding industries and TMT - low - related industries). There are also some technology trading directions with more catalysts and difficult - to - falsify features [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 HALO Trading - **Concept and Background** - HALO trading in the US stock market has emerged in recent months, mainly involving cyclical/utility - stable/heavy - asset manufacturing sectors. These sectors have high asset thresholds and low probability of being eliminated in the AI era. Since November 2025, HALO assets in the US stock market have performed well, while software - related sectors have been under pressure. In the A - share market, the corresponding HALO sectors also have an advantage [10]. - The US technology market is difficult to prove or disprove, and although the market cannot be said to have ended, there may be inflection points in the medium - to - long - term. The relative valuation of US technology is at a high level, and the relative valuation of HALO assets is at a low level, showing high long - term cost - effectiveness [13][15]. - **Catalysts** - Recently, commodities such as industrial metals and oil prices have risen rapidly, which will promote the upward movement of HALO sectors such as cyclicals. There is also a risk of re - inflation in the medium - to - long - term, and HALO assets may directly benefit from price increases (cyclicals) or be relatively immune to price increases (utilities) [18]. - **A - share HALO Experience** - When the relative valuation of A - share cyclical and stable sectors is at a low level, they can outperform TMT/All A in the 1 - 2 - year long - term investment perspective. Currently, the relative valuation of cyclical and stable sectors to TMT is at a low level, and it can be used as an alternative choice in the later stage of the technology market [21]. - At the primary industry level, cyclical and stable sectors such as steel, coal, chemical, and building materials have medium - to - low relative valuations, high cash - flow - to - market - value ratios, and recent performance has also improved. Stable sectors such as electricity and transportation have clear long - term barriers and high cash - flow - to - market - value ratios, and have reached the cost - effective range [24]. - At the tertiary industry level, HALO assets are screened according to criteria such as [fixed assets + construction in progress]/total assets > 50% quantile of the whole industry, etc. [27] 3.2 Fund Clustering - **Current Situation** - The TMT position of active funds in this round of the technology wave has reached 40%, exceeding the historical critical point of about 30%. After the collapse of previous rounds of clustering, the position ratio generally declined to below 20% [29]. - **Historical Experience** - In the last year of the four historical rounds of clustering, there were about two quarters with significant win - rate and odds. The win - rate and odds in the middle two quarters were mediocre [31]. - **Alternative Strategies** - **Low - holding/low - correlation reverse layout**: Whether from the "low - holding" or "low - correlation" perspective, the reverse layout strategy at the peak of clustering is effective. The average excess returns of the 12 industry samples in the four rounds of clustering are +20 and +18 pct respectively, with win - rates of 83% and 75% respectively. Currently, "low - holding" industries include textile and clothing, retail, real estate, coal, and construction; industries with "low - correlation" with TMT include banks, coal, petrochemicals, and food and beverage [35][37]. - **New battlefields with industrial catalysts**: The perspective of finding new battlefields in clustering has certain odds. The average excess return of 17 industry samples in the one - year period after the peak of clustering is +8 pct, but the win - rate is average and needs to be combined with industrial trends. Currently, four clues are attracting attention: varieties benefiting from the large - cycle price - spread repair, some upstream equipment radiated by the AI boom, securities companies benefiting from the warming of the capital market, and the infrastructure and real - estate chain [40][41]. 3.3 Overseas Expansion - **Fund Allocation** - In the fourth quarter of 2025, active funds generally increased their positions in overseas - expansion directions, including industries such as communications, non - ferrous metals, and basic chemicals. Most of these industries' position quantiles are still relatively low and have large room for improvement [42]. - **Export Situation** - In December 2025, the year - on - year export increased to +6.6%, and the CAGR marginal growth rate since 2019 has increased. Non - US regions and products such as automobiles, rare earths, integrated circuits, and ships have strong resilience [45]. 3.4 Impact of Geopolitical Conflicts - Historical experience shows that in the short - term impact of geopolitical conflicts, gold and crude oil rise due to risk - aversion, while the risk appetite of A - shares and US stocks is under pressure. The current new round of the Iran - Israel conflict is a type of Middle - East regional conflict, which may mainly affect oil prices and precious - metal prices, with limited impact on the equity side [48]. 3.5 Market Review in February - **Market Trends** - The spring market started steadily, and the cyclical style performed prominently. The cyclical sectors such as steel, building materials, and machinery had relatively high monthly returns, while sectors such as real estate, agriculture, and medicine had negative returns [53][55]. - **Policy** - In February, real - estate policy measures were introduced, such as Shanghai relaxing housing - purchase regulations. There were also policies in other fields, including the release of the "Low - Altitude Economy Standard System Construction Guide (2025 Edition)" and the "Implementation Plan for the High - Quality Development of the Traditional Chinese Medicine Industry (2026 - 2030)" [58][59]. 3.6 Macroeconomic Situation - **Overseas** - US Treasury bonds continued to decline, global funds turned from flowing out of the stock market to flowing in, the US PMI rebounded significantly, and the European OECD leading index continued its upward trend [63][66]. - **China** - In February, the long - and short - term Chinese Treasury bonds showed differentiation, the RMB continued to appreciate, the corporate financing demand rebounded from a low level, the growth rates of M2 and M1 both increased, and the BCI in February increased, with high - frequency data stronger than that of the same period last year [69][71][76]. 3.7 Corporate Profit and Index Valuation - **Corporate Profit** - In January, corporate profits rebounded, with high profit growth in industries such as ferrous metal smelting, non - ferrous metal mining and dressing, and transportation equipment [82]. - **Index Valuation** - There is still room for the stock - bond yield spread, international comparison, and monetary effect. From different perspectives such as the implied ERP, stock - bond yield spread, global valuation comparison, and stock - market - value - to - bond/monetary/GDP ratio, there is potential for the index to rise [87]. 3.8 Transaction Characteristics and Market Trends - **Transaction Characteristics** - The index volatility increased, and the industry rotation speed continued to decline. The margin trading balance as a proportion of the A - share floating market value decreased, and the turnover rate and single - month trading volume both decreased significantly [95][96]. - **Market Trends** - Passive funds flowed into the large - financial sector, and leveraged funds tended to flow out. Southbound funds flowed into the media and banking sectors in February, and the private - equity fund positions continued to rise [98][100]. 3.9 Mid - level Industry Prosperity - **Upstream and Mid - stream** - The prosperity of upstream rare earths, tungsten - molybdenum and other small metals, and mid - stream TMT & new energy sectors increased marginally [103]. - **Downstream** - The prosperity of household appliances and traditional Chinese medicine rebounded, and the prosperity of oil transportation reached a high level and further increased [105]. 3.10 Market Style - **Prosperity Style** - When the prosperity is rising, focus on high ROE and high G; when the prosperity is falling, focus on high DP. In the medium - term, it may gradually shift to high ROE and high expected performance [108]. - **Market - Capitalization Style** - In the short - term, with internal monetary easing and external tightening, small - cap stocks are expected to take the lead. The follow - up needs to pay attention to the central bank's actions [111]. - **Dumbbell Portfolio** - The over - crowdedness of the TMT sector has declined, and its relative performance has recovered. The over - crowdedness of the dividend sector has also fallen to a low level [114].

- The report introduces a style rotation solution, which includes a value-growth style rotation strategy and a large-small cap style rotation strategy. The value-growth style rotation strategy scores 6 for March 2026, indicating a higher score for the growth style[2][6] - The large-small cap style rotation strategy scores 2 for March 2026, indicating a higher score for the small cap style[2][8] - The industry rotation solution is constructed using four dimensions: macroeconomic indicators, mid-level fundamental indicators, micro-level technical indicators, and trading congestion indicators. The comprehensive score for the industry rotation strategy since 2017 shows an annualized return of 18.4%, with a benchmark annualized return of 4.9%, resulting in an excess annualized return of 13.5% and a monthly IC average of 12.1%[2][11][12] - The macroeconomic indicators divide the primary industries into five sectors: upstream cycle, midstream manufacturing, downstream consumption, TMT, and big finance. For March 2026, the macroeconomic growth dimension is in the "deepening recession/expansion slowdown" stage, and the liquidity dimension is in the "easing intensification/tightening slowdown" stage[15] - The fundamental indicators include historical prosperity, prosperity changes, and prosperity expectations. For March 2026, the top five industries ranked by fundamental indicators are non-ferrous metals, automobiles, electronics, non-bank finance, and machinery, while the bottom five are home appliances, real estate, construction, coal, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery[17] - The technical indicators include index momentum, leading stock momentum, and K-line patterns. For March 2026, the top five industries ranked by technical indicators are communication, national defense and military industry, basic chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and computers, while the bottom five are real estate, food and beverage, transportation, electricity and public utilities, and retail[20] - The congestion indicators include financing inflows, turnover rate, and transaction ratio. For March 2026, the top five industries with high congestion are media, petrochemicals, building materials, national defense and military industry, and non-ferrous metals, while the bottom five industries with low congestion are automobiles, textiles and apparel, non-bank finance, banking, and home appliances[21] - The comprehensive industry rotation solution combines the positive scores of the macro, fundamental, and technical dimensions, while negatively configuring the congestion factor. For March 2026, the top five recommended industries are communication, non-ferrous metals, electronics, automobiles, and national defense and military industry, while the bottom seven are real estate, construction, home appliances, coal, food and beverage, retail, and electricity and public utilities[25] Model Backtest Results - Value-growth style rotation strategy, comprehensive score: 6 for March 2026[6] - Large-small cap style rotation strategy, comprehensive score: 2 for March 2026[8] - Industry rotation strategy, annualized return: 18.4%, benchmark annualized return: 4.9%, excess annualized return: 13.5%, monthly IC average: 12.1%[12][13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The weekly technical analysis of Treasury bond futures shows that they are in a short - term adjustment, and attention should be paid to the rebound brought by support. This week, after the Treasury bond futures rebounded to a new high, they turned to adjustment. TL2606 and T2606 significantly declined after the rebound and may be in the adjustment process. Currently, they are near the support level, and it is necessary to focus on whether there will be a rebound during the adjustment [2]. - The data tracking of Treasury bond futures indicates that they declined overall this week, and the positive arbitrage strategy is waiting for an opportunity. As of the close on February 27, the closing prices of the 2606 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures were 102.456, 106.005, 108.395, and 112.07 yuan respectively, with changes of - 0.040, - 0.105, - 0.160, and - 0.94 yuan compared to the previous week. The trading activity of Treasury bond futures increased overall this week, and the daily average trading volume of the 2606 contracts of each maturity increased across the board. The open interest of the 2606 contracts of Treasury bond futures increased overall, and the main contract switched to 2606 this week. The CTD net basis of the 2606 contracts showed differentiation, and the current IRR is generally low, so the positive arbitrage strategy still needs to wait [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Technical Analysis 3.1.1 Previous Trend Review - TL2606 and T2606 closed with small negative lines with upper shadows this week. TL2606 was under pressure and turned down near the weekly MA20, and T2606 closed near the weekly MA5. At the beginning of this week, TL2606 and T2606 reached new highs and then declined, and are currently in a short - term adjustment [9]. 3.1.2 Future Market Outlook - This week, TL2606 and T2606 significantly declined after the rebound and may be in the short - term adjustment process. Currently, they are near the support level, and attention should be paid to whether there will be a rebound during the adjustment. After a significant adjustment on Wednesday and Thursday, T2606 and TL2606 both reached the support level. T2606 pulled back to the intensive trading area, and TL2606 was close to the upward trend line of the rebound since January 8. Attention should be paid to the possible rebound at the support level [14]. 3.2 Weekly Tracking of Treasury Bond Futures - The Treasury bond futures declined overall this week. As of the close on February 27, the closing prices of the 2606 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures were 102.456, 106.005, 108.395, and 112.07 yuan respectively, with changes of - 0.040, - 0.105, - 0.160, and - 0.94 yuan compared to the previous week [15]. - The trading activity of Treasury bond futures increased overall this week. The daily average trading volume of the 2606 contracts of each maturity increased across the board, and the trading volume/open interest ratio of each maturity increased [15]. - As of February 27, the open interest of the 2606 contracts of Treasury bond futures increased overall, and the main contract switched to 2606 this week [15]. - As of February 27, the CTD net basis of the 2606 contracts of each maturity showed differentiation, with TS and T rising and TF and TL falling. The CTD net basis of the 2606 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures were + 0.03, + 0.02, - 0.01, and + 0.06 yuan respectively. From the perspective of IRR, the IRR corresponding to the CTD of the 2606 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures were 1.39%, 1.43%, 1.52%, and 1.32% respectively, with TS and T falling and TF and TL rising. The current IRR is generally low, and the positive arbitrage strategy still needs to wait. The spread of the 2606 - 2609 contracts declined across the board, and the 2609 contract performed better [20].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The company reported a net operating income of 15.4 billion RMB for Q4 2025, which is a year-over-year increase of 21%, exceeding expectations by 3.6%. Adjusted EBITDA was 3.4 billion RMB, also up 15% year-over-year, surpassing expectations by 7.7% [7] - The company's internationalization strategy continues to drive growth, with a significant increase in international bookings, contributing to a revenue share of 18% in Q4 2025. The overall booking volume for the international OTA platform grew approximately 60% year-over-year [7] - The company is leveraging AI technology to enhance its service offerings and improve transaction efficiency, positioning itself to capitalize on new distribution channels [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2026 estimated revenue of 71.68 billion RMB, 2027 estimated revenue of 81.87 billion RMB, and 2028 estimated revenue of 91.82 billion RMB, reflecting a growth rate of 14.86%, 14.22%, and 12.15% respectively [6] - The projected net profit for 2026 is 16.37 billion RMB, with a significant drop in growth rate to -50.83%, followed by a recovery with growth rates of 14.50% and 13.53% in 2027 and 2028 respectively [6] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 22.94 RMB in 2026, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16.06 [6] Business Segment Performance - In Q4 2025, accommodation booking revenue reached 6.3 billion RMB, driven by strong demand for outbound and international hotel bookings. Transportation ticketing revenue was 5.4 billion RMB, with significant growth in international flight bookings [7] - The company's travel vacation revenue was 1.1 billion RMB, also up 21% year-over-year, benefiting from the expansion of international services [7] - Business travel management revenue was 800 million RMB, reflecting a 15% year-over-year increase, primarily due to growth in corporate clients [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The company reported a net operating revenue of 15.4 billion RMB for Q4 2025, which is a year-over-year increase of 21%, exceeding expectations by 3.6% [7] - The adjusted EBITDA for the same quarter was 3.4 billion RMB, also up 15% year-over-year, surpassing expectations by 7.7% [7] - The company's internationalization strategy continues to drive growth, with international OTA platform bookings increasing by approximately 60% year-over-year [7] - The company is leveraging AI technology to enhance transaction efficiency and service quality, positioning itself for long-term growth [7] - Revenue projections for 2026-2028 are estimated at 71.7 billion RMB, 81.9 billion RMB, and 91.8 billion RMB respectively, with Non-GAAP net profits of 19.1 billion RMB, 21.9 billion RMB, and 24.8 billion RMB [7] Financial Performance - For 2024, the company expects operating revenue of 53.3 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 19.73% [6] - The projected net profit for 2024 is 17.1 billion RMB, reflecting a significant increase of 72.08% year-over-year [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 26.10 RMB, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 19.03 [6] - The return on equity (ROE) for 2024 is projected to be 11.97% [6] Business Segment Performance - Accommodation booking revenue for Q4 2025 was 6.3 billion RMB, driven by strong demand for outbound and international hotel bookings [7] - Transportation ticketing revenue reached 5.4 billion RMB, with significant growth in international flight bookings [7] - The revenue from vacation services was 1.1 billion RMB, benefiting from the expansion of international services [7] - Business travel management revenue was 800 million RMB, primarily due to an increase in corporate clients [7]