Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [3]. Core Insights - The industry is experiencing a significant focus on AI capabilities and the development of terminal applications, with a notable surge in AI-related innovations [6][55]. - The semiconductor sector has faced considerable declines, with the semiconductor index dropping by 4.50% during the week of November 11 to November 15, 2024 [18]. - The report highlights the rapid growth in the new energy vehicle sector, with production and sales reaching new highs in October 2024 [26]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The electronic index fell by 3.77%, mirroring declines in the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index, with the semiconductor sector experiencing the largest drop [18]. - The report notes that the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index decreased by 8.64% during the same period [22]. Industry Data - New energy vehicles continue to show robust growth, achieving record monthly production and sales figures in October 2024 [26]. - DRAM spot prices have seen a slight decline, while NAND prices have also decreased [26]. Key Industry News - Baidu announced the launch of "Xiao Du AI Glasses," entering the AI glasses market [47]. - Tianyue Advanced unveiled the industry's first 300mm silicon carbide substrate at the Semicon Europe 2024 exhibition, marking a significant advancement in substrate technology [48]. - Moer Thread has initiated the A-share listing process, focusing on GPU technology for AI computing [51]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on opportunities within the AI computing and terminal industry chain, particularly in light of the recent popularity of AI glasses [6][55]. - Emphasis is placed on the importance of self-sufficiency in semiconductor manufacturing and related sectors due to geopolitical constraints [6][55].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1]. Core Views - The company is entering a rapid growth phase with significant potential in the NHL and autoimmune drug markets, particularly with the BTK inhibitor applications [3][4]. - The management team is experienced and has established an integrated R&D and production platform, with a focus on innovative drug development [4][18]. - The company has a robust pipeline with 13 drugs in development and has achieved rapid revenue growth driven by its lead product, Aobutini [5][60]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a comprehensive innovative biotech firm focused on oncology and autoimmune diseases, with a fully integrated biopharmaceutical platform [18]. - Founded in 2015, the company has developed a strong R&D capability and has multiple promising drug candidates [18]. Management and Shareholder Structure - The company has a dispersed shareholding structure with no controlling shareholder, ensuring diverse governance [20]. R&D and Clinical Development - The company has established six core technology platforms for drug development and has over 30 clinical trials ongoing globally [53]. - Aobutini, the lead product, has shown significant market potential with multiple approved indications and rapid sales growth [60]. Financial Performance - The company has shown a significant increase in revenue, with projected revenues of 1.051 billion, 1.232 billion, and 1.433 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [6]. - The net loss has narrowed, indicating improving profitability, with a forecasted EPS of -0.20 yuan for 2024 [6][5]. Market Potential - The NHL market is expected to grow significantly, with the number of patients in China projected to reach 730,000 by 2030 [3][69]. - BTK inhibitors are increasingly replacing traditional chemotherapy in NHL treatment, indicating a shift in treatment paradigms [71]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that Aobutini has substantial growth potential in the hematological malignancy indications, supporting the "Accumulate" rating [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is maintained as "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The real estate sector has underperformed, with the Shenwan Real Estate Index dropping by 8.92% this week, while the CSI 300 Index fell by 3.29%, resulting in a 5.62 percentage point underperformance compared to the CSI 300 Index, ranking last among 31 sectors [4][17] - Recent policies aimed at reducing housing costs, such as tax reductions for home purchases, are expected to stimulate market demand [6][50] Sales Overview - In the week of November 8 to November 14, 2024, the total transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities was 2.27 million square meters, a decrease of 4.4% month-on-month but an increase of 13.1% year-on-year [5][22] - The transaction area for second-hand housing in 17 monitored cities was 2.71 million square meters, down 3.1% month-on-month but up 41.2% year-on-year [5][25] - Year-to-date, the total transaction area for commercial housing in 30 major cities reached 82.98 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 29.3% [22] City-Level Sales Performance - In first-tier cities, the transaction area for new housing was 760,000 square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 11.6% and a year-on-year increase of 52.5% [5][22] - In second-tier cities, the transaction area was 1.07 million square meters, down 14.0% month-on-month and down 5.4% year-on-year [5][22] - In third-tier cities, the transaction area was 450,000 square meters, down 2.0% month-on-month but up 16.9% year-on-year [5][22] Inventory and Depletion - The depleting cycle for new housing in Beijing, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou is 20.92 months, 11.65 months, and 15.22 months respectively [40][43] - The inventory for new housing in Beijing is 1,034,000 square meters, while in Shenzhen it is 411,000 square meters [43] Key News Tracking - New tax policies have been introduced, reducing the deed tax for homes under 140 square meters by 1% [50][51] - The National Taxation Administration has lowered the minimum pre-collection rate for land value-added tax by 0.5 percentage points [54] - New regulations in Guangzhou allow for the separate sale of underground parking spaces [55] - The city of Changsha has clarified that newly built commercial housing can be traded once the property rights certificate is obtained [56]

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Positive** rating for the computer industry [3] Core Views - The computer industry is experiencing a multi-dimensional resonance driven by technological innovation, economic cycles, industrial policies, and CapEx trends [5] - The industry is transitioning from the PC era to the AI era, with the Gartner Hype Cycle and Moore's Law playing pivotal roles in shaping the tech landscape [5] - The report highlights that AI, domestic computing power, and intelligent driving are key drivers of the industry's future growth [6] - The industry is expected to benefit from a double-click effect due to external and domestic interest rate cuts, low fund holdings, and the premium on domestic assets [6] Key Summaries by Section 1. Multi-dimensional Resonance in the Computer Industry - The Gartner Hype Cycle remains a constant in the evolution from the PC era to the AI era, with technological cycles shortening due to the "Super Moore's Law" [25] - Tech giants' CapEx is leading the industry direction, while economic cycles guide mid-term fluctuations, and industrial policies serve as crucial levers [25] - Historical trends show that macroeconomic cycles significantly impact the computer industry, with fiscal and industrial policies playing a key role during downturns [43] 2. Interest Rate Cuts and Market Expectations - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts provide a favorable external environment for the computer industry's valuation expansion [54] - Domestic interest rate cuts and improved liquidity are expected to support the industry's growth, with historical parallels seen in 2015 and 2019 [66] - The computer industry's PE (TTM) has entered a marginal expansion phase, with valuations expected to rise further due to AI, domestic computing power, and intelligent driving trends [59] 3. Alpha and Beta Tracks - AI is a critical driver of market growth, with scaling laws driving demand for computing power and domestic innovation [97] - AI applications are improving in quality, with productivity tools like Office and PDF being key areas of focus [7] - AI hardware innovations are emerging across various sectors, including PCs, smartphones, and robotics, while AI's energy consumption is driving demand for clean energy [7] - Smart driving, industrial intelligence, and financial IT are expected to exhibit strong Alpha characteristics, while sectors like Huawei's HarmonyOS and low-altitude economy are supported by strong policy backing [7] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on AI server-related companies and domestic AI chip manufacturers, such as **HaiGuang Information**, **Cambricon**, and **Inspur Information** [123] - Companies in the cooling, power supply, and high-performance storage sectors are also recommended due to the increasing demand for power and storage driven by computing power iterations [123] 5. Market Performance and Fund Holdings - The computer industry's fund holdings reached a four-year low in 3Q2024, with a marginal improvement in risk appetite [72] - The industry's PE has been grinding at a low level but is expected to rise rapidly due to policy-driven liquidity improvements [85] - High trading volumes in the bull market are amplifying the industry's performance, with the computer sector's trading activity showing relative strength [89]

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that favorable policies are continuously promoting a recovery in domestic demand [4] - The tourism sector is expected to maintain its prosperity in the fourth quarter due to extended holidays and increased interest in winter sports tourism [4] - The report emphasizes the recovery of average transaction value in the duty-free sector, particularly in Hainan, which is anticipated to boost sales [4][41] - The hotel industry shows strong performance in store openings and structure, with a focus on improving management efficiency [5] - The education sector is benefiting from stable employment opportunities in public service positions, with an expected increase in recruitment for civil service exams [5][60] - The medical beauty sector is poised for recovery alongside consumer sentiment and policy support [5] - The beauty industry is showing signs of recovery during promotional seasons, with domestic brands gaining traction [6] - The retail sector is advised to focus on low-valuation opportunities, especially in cross-border e-commerce brands [6] Summary by Sections Duty-Free Sector - The duty-free sales sentiment index was 23.6 during the off-peak season, indicating short-term pressure on customer flow [21] - Hainan's airports recorded a total of 451,000 passengers from November 4 to November 10, 2024, recovering to 98.4% of 2019 levels [23] Hotel Industry - National occupancy rate (OCC) was 55.46%, with an average daily rate (ADR) of 185.15 yuan and revenue per available room (RevPAR) of 102.68 yuan [44] - Major hotel groups like Hyatt and Marriott are expanding their presence in the Greater China region, with strong momentum in store openings [52] Education Sector - The report notes a positive policy environment for the education sector, particularly for K12 and public service training [55] - The number of candidates for civil service exams is expected to reach a record high, with a 12.6% year-on-year increase in the number of applicants [60] Medical Beauty Sector - The medical beauty sector is expected to recover with the implementation of supportive policies and improved consumer sentiment [5] Beauty Industry - The beauty industry is experiencing a recovery during promotional seasons, with domestic brands showing resilience [6] Retail Sector - The retail sector is advised to focus on low-valuation opportunities, particularly in cross-border e-commerce brands [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [3]. Core Insights - The pig farming sector is experiencing a continued decline in prices due to sufficient supply and insufficient demand support. However, medium to long-term profitability is expected to persist for enterprises in this sector [5][40]. - The poultry farming sector shows stable prices for white chickens, with significant increases in breeding and self-breeding quantities [5][57]. - The animal health industry is anticipated to see a rebound in demand, driven by the pig farming cycle, with companies actively developing new products [5]. - The seed industry is progressing in the commercialization of genetically modified crops, with a focus on major varieties benefiting from early advantages [5][64]. - The pet food sector is witnessing strong growth, particularly in exports and during the Double Eleven shopping festival, indicating robust market potential [5]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - Prices for pigs continue to decline, with the average price on November 14 being 16.63 CNY/kg, down 2.92% week-on-week. The number of breeding sows is recovering slowly, with a month-on-month increase of 0.39% in October [5][49][40]. - The overall supply is adequate, but demand remains weak, leading to cautious industry sentiment [5][40]. Poultry Farming - The breeding quantity for white chickens in October was 190,600 sets, showing a month-on-month increase of 38.12% and a year-on-year increase of 81.52% [5][57]. - The average price for white feathered chickens was stable at 7.64 CNY/kg as of November 15 [5][59]. Animal Health - The industry is expected to see a recovery in demand, with sales data showing a significant increase in the third quarter of 2024 [5]. - Companies are focusing on new product development, which is likely to enhance growth opportunities [5]. Seed Industry - The USDA report indicates adjustments in global corn and soybean production, with a focus on the commercialization of genetically modified varieties [5][64][65][66]. - Companies with a diverse portfolio of major varieties are expected to benefit the most [5][64]. Pet Food - Export data for pet food shows improvement, with retail packaging for dog and cat food exports increasing by 37.9% and 28.4% respectively from January to September 2024 [5]. - The Double Eleven shopping festival saw over 50% year-on-year growth in transaction amounts for pet food [5].

农林牧渔 / 行业投资策略月报 / 2024.11.17 供应充足猪价震荡下行，商品代苗价高位震荡 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -25% -16% -7% 2% 10% 19% 农林牧渔 沪深300 分析师 肖珮菁 SAC 证书编号：S0160524070005 xiaopj@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《需求支撑不足猪价下行，10 月产能 回补仍慢》 2024-11-10 2. 《养殖链业绩环比改善，宠物食品盈 利能力增强》 2024-11-08 3. 《需求预期转好，畜禽价格支撑增强》 2024-11-04 ❖ 风险提示：畜禽价格波动风险，食品安全风险，动物疾病不确定风险，极端 灾害风险，饲料原材料波动风险 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------|---------------------------|-----------------------|----------------------|-------|-------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - Recent tax adjustments have reduced costs, particularly benefiting the real estate market and related sectors. The announcement of tax incentives aims to support housing transactions and alleviate financial pressures on real estate companies. This is expected to stabilize the real estate market and suggests a focus on convertible bonds related to customized home furnishings and bathroom products [3][4] Summary by Sections Market Performance - In the last 12 months, the light manufacturing sector has shown a decline of 32%, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index has also experienced a decrease of 22% [2] Convertible Bond Market - The convertible bond market saw a decline this week, with the China Convertible Bond Index dropping by 0.91%, the Shanghai Convertible Bond Index by 0.82%, and the Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index by 1.10%. Notably, the Huayuan Convertible Bond increased by 60.97%, leading the gains in the light manufacturing sector [4] Convertible Bond Terms - Specific convertible bonds have triggered clauses for price adjustments and redemption. For instance, the Lege Convertible Bond has not opted for a downward price adjustment despite meeting the criteria, while the Songlin Convertible Bond has triggered its redemption clause but has chosen not to exercise it [5] Company Updates - Lege Co. plans to adjust its fundraising project, reallocating funds to an overseas warehouse project in Georgia, USA, with a total of 199 million yuan involved. Meanwhile, Haishun New Materials announced a cash dividend distribution plan amounting to 50 million yuan [6]

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [3] Core Views - The light industry sector has shown a decline, with the Shenwan Light Industry Index dropping by 3.68% in the week of November 11-15, 2024, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.38 percentage points, ranking 17th among 31 Shenwan primary industries [5][18] - The furniture retail sales in October 2024 increased by 7.4% year-on-year, significantly improving from the previous value of 0.4%, driven by the "old-for-new" policy [7][30] - The new tax policies aimed at the real estate market, including reductions in deed tax and land value-added tax, are expected to lower housing costs and stimulate demand in the home improvement sector [6][63] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The Shenwan Light Industry Index closed at 2037.77 points with a weekly decline of 3.68%, and the light manufacturing sub-sectors experienced widespread declines, including home goods down by 5.06% [5][18] - Notable individual stock performances included Mingyue Lens, Shandong Huapeng, and Xianggang Technology with increases of 25.8%, 21.1%, and 20.6% respectively, while Wangli Security, Gaole Shares, and Jiahua Technology saw declines of 17.7%, 17.4%, and 15.9% [18][23] Key Industry Data Tracking - In October 2024, the residential sales area decreased by 0.5% year-on-year, with a significant reduction in new construction area by 25.7% [24] - The total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 39.90 trillion yuan in the first ten months of 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 3.5% [30] Company Announcements and Industry News - Recommended companies include leading soft furniture company Gujia Home (603816.SH), customized furniture leader Oppein Home (603833.SH), and stable growth in export business from Simoer International (6969.HK) [8] - The furniture and parts export in October 2024 was valued at 5.388 billion USD, with a year-on-year increase of 7.2% [48]

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook on the duty-free sector, particularly focusing on the recovery of Hainan's duty-free market and the growth potential of port and city duty-free operations [2][44]. Core Insights - The duty-free sector's performance is influenced by three main dimensions: the recovery of Hainan's duty-free market, the expansion of city duty-free stores, and the expected asset injections from companies like Hainan Development and Gree Real Estate [2][44]. - The tourism sector is expected to benefit from extended holidays and policies promoting winter sports tourism, with specific attention on destinations like Changbai Mountain and Dalian Shengya [3][72]. - The hotel industry is facing intense competition, with a projected weak recovery in occupancy rates, but there is potential for improvement in operational efficiency and valuation for leading hotel chains [3][75]. Summary by Sections Duty-Free Industry Strategy - The current performance of the duty-free sector is under pressure, particularly in Hainan, where the recovery is ongoing due to external factors like natural disasters [2][12]. - The average spending per person in Hainan's duty-free shops has seen a decline, with significant drops during major holidays [16][18]. - Port duty-free sales are experiencing substantial growth, driven by an increase in international flights and the expansion of visa-free policies [21][23]. Tourism Industry Strategy - The tourism sector is witnessing a recovery driven by extended holiday expectations and policies that encourage domestic travel, particularly in winter sports [3][72]. - The report highlights the importance of online travel agencies (OTAs) and the increasing penetration of travel services in lower-tier cities [51][56]. - The integration of tourism resources and the potential for asset consolidation in companies like Xiyu Tourism are noted as key growth areas [60][61]. Hotel Industry Strategy - The hotel sector is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with a projected increase in competition among chain hotels [75][79]. - The report indicates that while occupancy rates may improve slightly, the overall revenue per available room (RevPAR) is under pressure due to high competition and market saturation [75][76]. - The focus on membership programs and direct sales channels is emphasized as a strategy for major hotel groups to enhance customer retention and reduce reliance on online travel agencies [3][75].