社会服务 /行业专题报告 / 2024.05.05 教育人服业绩总结：教育景气度延续，外包保持快增 证券研究报告 投资评级:看好(维持) 核心观点 最近12月市场表现 ❖ A股教育、人服公司2023年报&2024一季报披露完毕：1）教育：K12& 职教板块景气度维持，主要公司业绩实现大幅增长、扭亏、减亏。K12板块， 社会服务 沪深300 此前教育部《校外培训管理条例（征求意见稿）》发布，明确校外培训成为学 3% 校教育有益补充的基本定位，头部公司完成义务教育阶段非学科培训业务、高 -5% 中阶段学科培训业务转型，疫情后需求端持续释放，带动主要公司业绩增长。 -13% 职教板块，公职类考培政策性岗位增加、应届毕业生人群扩大促成参考人数、 -21% 参培比例提升，龙头加大线下培训基地班建设提升市占率，同时注重员工人效 -30% 产出优化费用成本，盈利能力持续提升。2）人力：主要公司外包服务领域保 -38% 持快增，但招聘业务有所承压，导致业绩波动。国资龙头人事管理基本盘业务 相对稳定，稳健贡献现金流。 分析师 刘洋 ❖ 教育板块：合同负债高增，景气度延续。K12板块：续班率&报班人数提 SAC证书编号：S016 ...

半导体 / 行业点评报告 / 2024.05.05 行业景气复苏，覆铜板迎接新一轮涨价周期 证券研究报告 投资评级:看好(维持) 覆铜板行业跟踪报告 最近12月市场表现 核心观点 ❖ 覆铜板原材料铜箔价格上行，玻纤、树脂修复改善：覆铜板主要由铜箔 半导体 沪深300 上证指数 （占比约42%）、玻纤布（19%）和树脂（26%）构成。1）铜箔：铜箔定价主 5% 要由铜价和加工费组成。2024年4月26日，LME铜价上行触及10000美元/ -3% 吨关口。截至2024年5月1日，LME铜总库存为117375吨处历史低位，叠 -11% 加海外市场持续预期的美联储降息，间接助力铜价维持高位。加工费方面，国 -19% 产4.5/8um铜箔加工费维持平稳，存在改善空间。2）玻纤布:电子玻纤行业供 -26% 给呈收缩态，随着中国巨石、山东玻纤等头部企业相继发布传统玻纤的涨价函 -34% 时，电子纱/布也开始跟随反转向好。3）环氧树脂：截至2024年4月底，环 氧树脂华东市场价 12650 元/吨，随着下游入市刚需备货补货，成本端支撑有 所加强，价格触底反弹后有望平稳运行。 分析师 张益敏 SAC证书编号：S0160522 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.705 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 58.60%, and a net profit of 663 million yuan, which is an increase of 79.82% year-on-year [3] - In Q1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 472 million yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 17.25%, but the net profit decreased by 80.51% year-on-year [3] - The semiconductor thin film deposition equipment business is steadily developing, with the company covering a full range of PECVD thin film materials and receiving bulk orders [3] - The company has launched new models of reaction chambers to meet the stringent requirements of chip technology [3] - The first quarter of 2024 faced challenges due to longer acceptance cycles for new products and increased costs associated with business expansion and R&D investments [3] - The company is advancing into the field of advanced packaging with its first wafer-to-wafer bonding product, which has passed customer validation and received repeat orders [3] - The forecast for net profit from 2024 to 2026 is 835 million yuan, 1.205 billion yuan, and 1.557 billion yuan, corresponding to PE ratios of 40.94, 28.37, and 21.96 respectively [3] Financial Data Summary - Revenue for 2022 was 1.706 billion yuan, with a projected revenue of 4.021 billion yuan for 2024, indicating a growth rate of 48.66% [2] - The net profit for 2022 was 368 million yuan, with a projected net profit of 835 million yuan for 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 26.02% [2] - The company's EPS for 2022 was 2.15 yuan, expected to rise to 4.44 yuan in 2024 [2] - The company's ROE is projected to increase from 14.42% in 2023 to 15.34% in 2024 [2] - The company's PB ratio is expected to decrease from 9.42 in 2023 to 6.28 in 2024 [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 24.558 billion yuan for 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.04%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.921 billion yuan, up 13.51% year-on-year. For Q1 2024, the revenue was 6.440 billion yuan, a 13.40% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 648 million yuan, up 7.73% year-on-year [4][5] - The gross profit margin for the year improved to 27.89%, an increase of 1.81 percentage points year-on-year. The gross profit margin for the refrigeration and air conditioning parts business was 28.20%, up 2.04 percentage points, while the automotive parts business had a gross profit margin of 27.43%, up 1.51 percentage points [4] - The company is expanding its business layout and accelerating its globalization efforts, with plans to complete the second phase of its factory in Vietnam in 2024 and expand production lines in Mexico and Thailand. In the automotive parts sector, the company is focusing on key projects with global clients and advancing the construction of production bases in Mexico, Poland, and various locations in China [4] Financial Summary - For 2024-2026, the company is expected to achieve net profits of 3.546 billion yuan, 4.204 billion yuan, and 4.929 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 23.06, 19.45, and 16.59 [4][5] - The total revenue forecast for 2024 is 29.163 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 18.75%, and for 2025, it is projected to be 34.415 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 18.01% [5][6] - The company’s EPS is expected to increase from 0.81 yuan in 2023 to 0.95 yuan in 2024, and further to 1.13 yuan in 2025 [5][6]

前景向好,港股&中概领跑全球 假期大类资产复盘 ■ 证券研究报告 整体:中国相关>日元>亚太股票>美股>大宗/欧股 中国相关:政策利好下,恒科/恒指/金龙/A50/上涨 6.8/4.7/3.7/2.2%全球领跑; 港股行业:政策利好的地产上涨 7.8%领跑,可选/信息上涨 5.2/5.1%紧随其后。 国内:政治局传递多项利好信号,各地地产政策不断出炉 投资策略报告 / 2024.05.04 核心观点 五一大类资产表现(4.29-5.3):中国相关资产表现强势 美债:2Y/10Y 下降 14/16BP,其中议息会议后下降 22/18BP(降息预期抬升)。 大宗: 金/铜/油涨跌幅为-1.4/-1.7/-5.1%。 4月政治局会议传递多项信号:1)确定三中时间:决定了 7月召开三中全会, 主题为"进一步全面深化改革、推进中国式现代化"。2》地产表述有所变化: 重视消化存量房产+优化增量住房。3)财政加码:表示保持必要财政支出强 度,及早发行并用好超长期特别国债,加快使用专项债。4)货币宽松:灵活 运用利率和存款准备金率等政策工具,降低社会综合融资成,后续存在降息降 准等政策支持可能。5)产业加注科技:强调培育壮大 ...

相关报告 1. 《美国就业为何仍超预期 -- 3月关 国非农数据解读》 2024-04-06 2. 《就业市场逐步降温 -- 2月美国非 农数据解读》 2024-03-09 3. 《就业市场强势不减 -- 1月美国非 农数据解读》 2024-02-03 :: 降息最早或在三季度。非农数据公布后,市场对美联储利率路径整体下移, 首次降息时点预期在9月。同时,美股三大指数均有上涨,美元指数走低,十 年期美债收益率有所下降。本月非农就业数据显示,新增就业人数低于预期, 前值不断下修,失业率有所反弹,平均时薪增速持续下降,反映就业市场强劲 势头有所减弱。我们认为,目前通胀压力仍然高于美联储预期水平,失业率并 未大幅反弹,短期内美联储或倾向于维持高利率水平。不过,劳动力市场整体 扩张步伐正在减速,登加时薪增速放缓有望带动服务项通胀回落,随着高利率 对经济各部门的影响或将逐步显现,首次降息或在三季度进行。 强劲就业正在松动 or 劳动参与率持平,失业率小幅反弹。4月劳动参与率录得 62.7%,与上月 持平,较疫情前2020年1月 63.3%的水平仍低0.4个百分点。4月失业率略有 反弹至 3.9%,较上个月上升 0.1个 ...

数据来源:WIND,对通证券研究所 图 11 下 前 周新房销售面积2 2018 == - 2020 - 2021 1000 2022 2023 2024 800 600 400 200 月一日 期前第 期前第 期前第2 期前第 新京第 期前第 0 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 数据来源:WIND,对通证券研究所 节前一周二手房销售处同期次低,同比高于新房。从走势上看,二手房销售与新 房类似,五一当天,每日销售面积开始出现回落。从节前销售情况看,节前一周, 二手房累计销售面积处 2019年以来同期次低。从节内销售情况看,五一当周(前 2 日)二手房销售面积创2019年以来同期新低。分城市层级看,节前一周,一线 城市的单城日均销售面积最高,二线城市次之,而三四线城市则表现乏力。 三四线是二手房销售的主要拖累。节前一周累计，16 城二手房销售面积为 146.2 万平米,为2019年以来同期次低,同比增速为-6%。北京、深圳2个一线城市累 计销售面积为 44.8万平米,同比增速为 16.1%;5个二线城市累计销售面积为 74 万平米,为 2019年以来同期次高,同比增速为 4.7%;9 ...

明阳智能(601615) /风电设备 /公司点评 /2024.05.04 扭亏为盈，能源电站贡献新增量 证券研究报告 投资评级:增持(维持) 核心观点 ❖ 事件:公司发布 2024 年一季报，实现营业总收入 50.75 亿元，同比+86.62%； 基本数据 2024-04-30 实现归母净利润 3.04 亿元，同比+233.83%；实现销售毛利率 20.62%，同比 收盘价(元) 9.81 流通股本(亿股) 22.64 +7.25pct；实现销售净利率6.19%，同比+14.64pct。 每股净资产(元) 11.94 ❖ 布局风光储氢一体化，滚动开发贡献利润增量：公司通过持续加大对光伏产 总股本(亿股) 22.72 业、电力电子储能产业和氢能产业的投入，以实现平衡可再生能源的间歇性和 最近12月市场表现 不稳定性，从而提高能源整体利用效率和电网的稳定性，从而提升自身新能源 电站的开发和运营能力，从而进一步提高公司自建自营新能源电站的收益能 明阳智能 沪深300 上证指数 力。截至 2023 年末，公司在运营的新能源电站装机容量 2.56GW，相比去年 2% 同期增长70.47%；在建装机容量3.30GW，同比 ...

巨星科技(002444) /通用设备 /公司点评 /2024.05.03 渠道去库影响结束，Q1 业绩超预期 证券研究报告 投资评级:增持(维持) 核心观点  事件：公司发布2024年度一季报。公司24Q1实现营业收入33.06亿元， 基本数据 2024-04-30 同比+29.38%；归母净利润4.13亿元，同比+36.70%，扣非净利润4.31亿元， 收盘价(元) 25.36 流通股本(亿股) 11.51 同比+51.37%。 每股净资产(元) 12.69 总股本(亿股) 12.03  系统故障影响结束，叠加补库订单兑现，收入大幅转正。公司收入端大 最近12月市场表现 幅转正，预计系：1）渠道主动去库结束，订单回暖逐步体现至收入；2）23Q4 受黑客及客户年末控制库存影响的订单延期至Q1交付。 巨星科技 沪深300 50%  成本端及汇率优化，盈利能力稳步增长。公司 Q1 净利率 12.94%，同比 36% +1.08pct，毛利率 31.38%，同比+2.13pct，预计系汇率及产能优化带来。公司 22% 销售、管理、研发、财务费用分别为6.79%/6.56%/2.06%/1.46%，分别同比-0 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a total operating revenue of 8.242 billion yuan for Q1 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 0.40%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 636 million yuan, down 17.20% year-on-year [2] - The gross profit margin was 18.03%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 7.67%, down 1.93 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company has a substantial order backlog in its marine projects, with approximately 11.5 billion yuan in hand as of March 31, 2024, driven by high domestic and international demand [2] - The company is focusing on core technology innovation in its communication segment, developing high-density optical fibers for data centers and other specialized products [2] - The company is expanding its new energy layout, ranking sixth globally in the shipment of energy storage systems in 2023, and has established a portfolio of photovoltaic power stations with a total capacity of 390.26 MW [2] Financial Summary - The company is expected to achieve operating revenues of 51.14 billion yuan, 55.53 billion yuan, and 59.97 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits of 3.944 billion yuan, 4.631 billion yuan, and 5.161 billion yuan for the same years [2][5] - The projected PE ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 10.87, 9.26, and 8.31 respectively [2][5] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 10.77%, 11.32%, and 11.29% for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5]