证券研究报告 投资评级:看好(维持) 轻工制造 / 行业投资策略周报 / 2025.03.16 家具出口额同比回落，深圳出台补贴细则 最近 12 月市场表现 -26% -17% -8% 1% 9% 18% 轻工制造 沪深300 分析师 吕明璋 SAC 证书编号：S0160523030001 lvmz@ctsec.com 分析师 何栋 SAC 证书编号：S0160524080002 hedong@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《政策定调积极，地产回稳趋势延续》 2025-03-09 2. 《稳地产+促消费，关注家居相关转 债》 2025-03-09 3. 《上海二手房成交亮眼，家居 315 营 销开启》 2025-03-02 轻工行业周报 核心观点 风险提示：地产销售下滑；原材料价格上涨；下游需求不及预期。 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ 本周行情回顾：本周（2025.3.10-2025.3.14）申万轻工指数收报 2090.84 点， 周涨跌幅为+1.76%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.18pct，在 31 个申万一级行业中排名 第 16。本周轻工制造细分板块普涨，家居用品/包装印刷/文娱用品/造纸分别 + ...

Core Insights - The report maintains a positive outlook on the HIV sector, highlighting Gilead's long-acting therapy, Lenacapavir, as a potential game-changer in HIV treatment and prevention [1][3]. Group 1: HIV Mechanism and Treatment - HIV is a retrovirus that selectively targets CD4+ cells, integrating its genetic material into the host's genome, leading to viral replication [5][7]. - The primary treatment for AIDS is the "cocktail therapy," which combines multiple antiviral drugs to minimize resistance and maximize viral suppression [5][7]. Group 2: Lenacapavir's Impact - Lenacapavir is Gilead's first long-acting HIV capsid inhibitor, showing promising results in clinical trials for treating multi-drug resistant HIV in adults [9][11]. - In the CAPELLA study, 83% of participants using Lenacapavir achieved a viral load of less than 50 copies/mL after 52 weeks, compared to only 11% in the placebo group [13][14]. - Lenacapavir has significant potential in post-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), with studies indicating a 100% reduction in HIV infection risk among participants receiving biannual injections [20][21]. Group 3: Market Potential and Future Developments - The global HIV infection rate in 2023 was approximately 39.9 million, with a significant portion of the population being women [15][18]. - Lenacapavir's approval for PrEP is anticipated to set a new standard in HIV prevention, potentially generating substantial revenue for Gilead [23]. - Other recent advancements in HIV treatments include Merck's dual-drug therapy achieving positive results in Phase III trials and ViiV Healthcare's long-acting antibody therapy showing good efficacy [24][26].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term pressure on production ramp-up, but AI-driven growth is expected to build long-term momentum [5] - The company achieved a revenue of 17.907 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 32.39%, and a net profit of 1.878 billion yuan, up 34.29% year-on-year [5] - The data center sector has seen significant order growth, becoming the second downstream market to reach a scale of 2 billion yuan in PCB business after the communication sector [5] - The company is focusing on deepening core technology and accelerating the introduction of high-end products [5] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 21.159 billion yuan, 23.518 billion yuan, and 25.635 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 2.557 billion yuan, 3.041 billion yuan, and 3.549 billion yuan [5] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 13.526 billion yuan, with a revenue growth rate of -3.33% [4] - The company expects a net profit of 1.398 billion yuan in 2023, with a net profit growth rate of -14.81% [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 2.73 yuan for 2023, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 26.00 [4] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 10.60% in 2023 [4] - The company anticipates a gross margin of 23.4% for 2023 [7] Market Performance - The company's stock has shown a market performance of -11% over the last 12 months compared to the CSI 300 index [3]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for M1 growth, suggesting a potential upward trend in the coming quarters [11][35]. Core Insights - M1 growth showed a rebound trend in Q4 2024, but experienced a decline again in early 2025 due to the Spring Festival effect. The report explores the factors driving M1 growth changes and whether a new upward trend has begun [11][35]. - The report identifies five key factors influencing M1 growth: fiscal policy, monetary policy, entity activity, financial system, and external factors. It highlights that fiscal policy has become the primary driver of M1 growth, especially in 2024 [20][35]. - The report emphasizes that the contribution of entity demand to M1 growth has weakened significantly since 2018, while fiscal policy's contribution has increased, reaching 7.3 percentage points in 2024 [35][41]. Summary by Sections 1. Changes in M1 - M1 growth rebounded starting October 2024, reaching 1.2% in December, but slowed to 0.4% in January 2025. The government bond issuance accelerated from August 2024, contributing to M1's recovery [11][12][35]. - The new M1 calculation includes personal demand deposits, which smooths out the impact of seasonal factors like the Spring Festival [11][13][35]. 2. Factors Driving M1 Growth: Insights from the Five-Factor Model - The report notes that the average annual contribution of entity demand to M1 growth has dropped to 2.2 percentage points in 2024, compared to an average of 10 percentage points from 2018 to 2021 [20][35]. - The financial system's contribution to M1 growth has been negative in recent years, reflecting the drag from interbank fund circulation [35][41]. 3. Is M1 Entering an Upward Cycle? - Historical data shows that M1 growth has typically rebounded significantly during previous cycles, with increases of over 10 percentage points lasting more than a year [41][45]. - The report suggests that while fiscal policy may drive M1 growth, the current recovery in entity demand remains weak, and the central bank's monetary policy focus is on stabilizing bank interest margins rather than large-scale liquidity injections [45][49].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company for the first time [2] Core Views - The company is a leading hydropower platform under the Datang Group, with a high return on equity (ROE) and a focus on stable cash flow supporting high dividend payouts [7][10] - The company has a significant presence in the Guangxi region, with a total installed capacity of 13.3 million kilowatts, of which hydropower accounts for 10.24 million kilowatts, representing 77% of its total capacity [7][12] - The report anticipates a recovery in profits due to improved water inflow and ongoing projects, projecting revenues of 9.576 billion, 11.220 billion, and 12.083 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [6][49] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is the only hydropower operation platform for the Datang Group in the Guangxi Hongshui River basin, with a focus on hydropower generation [10][12] - It has expanded its power asset scale through self-construction and acquisitions since its establishment in 1992 [11][12] Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 8.091 billion yuan in 2023, with a projected increase to 9.576 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting an 18.36% growth [6][53] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 1.226 billion yuan in 2023 to 2.323 billion yuan in 2024, indicating a 89.48% increase [6][53] Profitability and Cash Flow - The average ROE from 2017 to 2023 was 13.70%, positioning the company favorably among its peers [7][39] - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio, with a commitment to a minimum of 70% for 2024 [7][44] Future Growth Prospects - The company is expected to benefit from improved water inflow conditions, with a projected 27.77% increase in power generation in 2024 [16][17] - Ongoing projects, including the second phase of the Longtan hydropower station, are expected to contribute to future capacity and revenue growth [7][35] Market Position - The company operates primarily in the hydropower sector, with a significant portion of its revenue derived from this segment, averaging 74% from 2019 to the first half of 2024 [21][22] - The company is also expanding its renewable energy portfolio, with plans for significant wind and solar power capacity increases [36][52]

Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the increasing penetration rate of weight loss drugs, particularly GLP-1 class medications, due to significant price reductions announced by leading companies like Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk [4][6][7] - The accessibility of GLP-1 drugs is expected to rise, leading to a rapid increase in demand for raw materials, especially among self-paying patients [4][6] - The report maintains a positive outlook on pharmaceutical technology stocks, emphasizing the potential of innovative drug policies and AI's long-term impact on the industry [7] Market Performance Review - The pharmaceutical and biological sector's TTM-PE is at 41.28 times, which is 65% higher than the historical low of 25 times [10] - The sector's premium over the CSI 300 index is 227%, significantly above the historical low premium of 124% [10] - From March 3 to March 7, 2025, the CSI 300 index rose by 1.39%, while the pharmaceutical sector increased by 1.06%, ranking 18th among 28 sub-industries [14][16] Industry Dynamics - Recent approvals and clinical trial successes in the industry include BMS's combination therapy for liver cancer and AstraZeneca's immunotherapy achieving primary endpoints in clinical trials [22][23] - The FDA has approved several innovative therapies, including a treatment for a rare neurodegenerative eye disease and a new inhaled allergy therapy [24][27] - The report notes the positive results from the Cebranopadol therapy for acute pain management, which is expected to lead to a new drug application submission [25][26]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a long-term recommendation for technology and dividend sectors, indicating a style switch by the end of 2024, with a notable rise of nearly 20% in small-cap/growth stocks since early January and a 25% increase in Hong Kong tech stocks since early February [4][15]. Market Outlook Post Two Sessions - The report suggests that the market is likely to continue its upward trend following the Two Sessions, supported by positive domestic policies and favorable market expectations. If there are no significant hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, the market momentum is expected to persist [5][16]. Strong Stocks and Sector Performance - Strong stocks are defined as those with a market capitalization of over 10 billion and listed for more than two months, with the top 10% performers before the meeting categorized as strong stocks. Historical data indicates that strong stocks tend to continue their performance in years like 2010, 2011, 2013, and 2023, while years like 2012, 2014, and 2021 may see a switch [17][18][19]. Catalysts for Performance - The report identifies three key dimensions influencing stock performance: strong industrial catalysts, improved fundamental expectations for strong stocks, and the current heat level of strong stocks. The current environment shows strong industrial catalysts and slightly better-than-average fundamental expectations, but the heat level is already high, indicating potential for a switch if catalysts do not continue [20][24][25]. Historical Performance Analysis - Historical analysis shows that strong stocks with improved fundamentals have a higher probability of continued performance. The report highlights that in the current cycle, strong stocks have slightly better fundamental improvements compared to the market, but not as pronounced as in previous years [24][40][41]. Heat Level of Strong Stocks - The report notes that the current heat level of strong stocks is high, with indicators suggesting that if there are no further catalysts, a correction may occur. The heat level is assessed based on turnover rates relative to the overall market, with a significant increase observed in recent months [25][26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Positive" for the industry [1] Core Insights - NVIDIA's performance exceeded expectations with strong revenue and profit growth, driven by robust demand for the Blackwell series [4][9] - The demand from Cloud Service Providers (CSPs) remains strong, with significant capital expenditure (CapEx) growth anticipated in 2025 [15][19] - NVIDIA's competitive advantages over ASICs include greater flexibility, a richer ecosystem, and faster iteration speeds [24][25] - The Chinese market shows substantial demand for NVIDIA chips despite geopolitical challenges and increasing domestic competition [27][29] Summary by Sections 1. Blackwell Demand and NVIDIA's Performance - In FY4Q2025, NVIDIA achieved revenue of $39.33 billion, a year-on-year increase of 78%, surpassing market expectations of $38.1 billion [4][9] - Net profit for FY4Q2025 was $22.09 billion, up 80% year-on-year, exceeding the expected $19.57 billion [9][10] - Blackwell revenue reached $11 billion in FY4Q2025, indicating strong demand [13] 2. Demand Side: CSP Demand and Growth - The CapEx of North America's four major CSPs is projected to reach $320 billion in 2025, a year-on-year increase of approximately 43.5% [19][21] - CSPs are increasingly focusing on AI infrastructure investments, with significant growth in enterprise demand for NVIDIA's data center products [23] 3. Competitive Landscape - NVIDIA's GPUs offer superior general flexibility compared to ASICs, allowing customers to adapt their data centers based on varying needs [24][25] - The ecosystem built around NVIDIA's architecture has expanded significantly, making it challenging for competitors to integrate diverse chip solutions [25] 4. Chinese Market Dynamics - Major Chinese internet companies are ramping up their AI infrastructure investments, with ByteDance planning $20 billion in CapEx for 2025 [27] - Despite geopolitical uncertainties, NVIDIA's sales in China are expected to grow at a rate similar to the overall company growth of 78% [27][29] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on AI computing and domestic alternatives, highlighting companies such as Haiguang Information, Xiechuang Data, and others [29][30]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry [1]. Core Insights - Inflation in the U.S. has successfully declined, with the February CPI year-on-year growth rate falling to 2.8% and core CPI dropping to 3.1%, the lowest since May 2021 [4][6]. - Energy prices have shifted from an increase to a decrease, with the CPI energy component showing a year-on-year growth rate of -0.2% in February [8]. - There is a risk of rebound in commodity prices, as core commodity year-on-year growth remained flat at -0.1%, but furniture and clothing prices have shown an upward trend [12][22]. - Service inflation continues to ease, with core service year-on-year growth at 4.1%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [13][14]. - Market expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have briefly increased, but concerns over potential re-inflation due to tariffs have led to a reduction in the number of expected cuts [16][20]. Summary by Sections Inflation Trends - February CPI year-on-year growth rate decreased to 2.8%, while core CPI fell to 3.1%, marking the lowest levels since May 2021 [4][6]. - The decline in inflation is attributed to easing energy prices and a continued drop in core service inflation, particularly in transportation and housing [4][6]. Energy Prices - The CPI energy component recorded a year-on-year growth rate of -0.2%, a decline of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month [8]. - Brent crude oil prices averaged $75.3 per barrel in February, influenced by the easing of the Russia-Ukraine situation [8]. Commodity Prices - Core commodity year-on-year growth was flat at -0.1%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [12]. - There is a potential for a rebound in commodity prices due to tariff expectations affecting pricing strategies among U.S. importers [12][22]. Service Inflation - Core service inflation year-on-year growth was 4.1%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, with housing-related inflation continuing to decline [13][14]. - The easing of inflationary pressures in services is expected to persist [14]. Interest Rate Expectations - Following the release of inflation data, market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts initially rose but were later tempered by concerns over tariffs potentially causing re-inflation [16][20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the brain-computer interface (BCI) industry [1]. Core Insights - The BCI technology has significant potential in the healthcare sector, particularly for improving the quality of life for patients with severe motor disabilities and other neurological disorders [4]. - The global BCI market is experiencing rapid growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.85% from 2018 to 2023, projected to reach $10.8 billion by 2033, with a CAGR of 16.48% from 2023 to 2033 [4][25]. - The Chinese BCI market is also expanding quickly, expected to reach 5.58 billion yuan by 2027, with a CAGR of 20.29% [4]. - The healthcare sector accounted for 46.14% of the BCI market share in 2024, with potential market sizes in serious medical applications estimated between $15 billion and $85 billion by 2030-2040 [4][32]. Summary by Sections 1. Introduction to Brain-Computer Interfaces - BCI technology interprets brain signals to control external devices, significantly benefiting patients with severe motor disabilities [11]. - The development of BCI technology has gained global attention, with various projects moving from laboratory settings to practical applications [11]. 2. Investment Landscape of Brain-Computer Interfaces - The global BCI market size grew from $1.2 billion in 2018 to $2.35 billion in 2023, with non-invasive BCI being the primary research focus [25]. - Major countries are supporting BCI technology through various initiatives, including the U.S. "Brain Research Initiative" and the EU's "Human Brain Project" [28]. 3. Key Technologies and Current Development Status - BCI systems are categorized into input and output types, with various signal acquisition methods including invasive, semi-invasive, and non-invasive techniques [20][24]. - The report highlights the challenges faced by BCI technology, including complex EEG signals and limitations in decoding accuracy [4]. 4. Company Analysis in the BCI Sector - Notable companies in the BCI field include Cheng Yi Tong, Xiang Yu Medical, and Sanbo Neuroscience, which are recognized for their advancements in BCI technology [4].