量子技术作为新质生产力的重要代表之 或在计算、通信和测量领域为下游 降本增效,提高生产效率 量子技术代表先进生产力的发展方向,是各国长期投资发展的重要领域。近年 ess 全球量子技术集中在量子计算领域,2023年,我国在量子计算领域融资规 来, 模占全球的8.1%。但我们认为,我国量子产业未来的规模或远大于当前的融资 投入。我们预测2030年我国在量子产业中的总体市场份额或可达15%。 量子技术应用广泛,市场潜力亟待开发,细分领域中,我们认为量子计算市场 潜力最为可观。 到2030年市场规模或可 达到 2,391亿美元 , 对 应 2023-30年65%复合 年增长率,其中计算/通 信 / 测 量 分 别 为 2,155 /197/38.Z亿美元。 建议关注国盾量子 态源量至等中国领 先企业,以及lonQ, IBM、 谷歌等海外 大型企业量子计算 的进展。 分析师 | 玉犬卫 董理 & es 交银国际研究 行业剖析 科技行业 量子技术:新质生产力的下一个突破口? 量子技术作为新质生产力的重要代表之一,或在计算、通信和测量领域为 下游降本增效,提高生产效率。量子技术利用量子叠加态和量子纠缠等不 同量子技术实现高 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Yadea (1585 HK) and Ninebot (689009 CH), while providing a "Neutral" rating for Greendot (2451 HK) [4][6]. Core Insights - The electric two-wheeler industry in China is experiencing new developments and opportunities driven by three main factors: the unfulfilled demand for replacement due to new national standards, the favorable old-for-new policies, and the growth in both consumer (To C) and business (To B) demand. The forecasted sales for electric two-wheelers in China from 2024 to 2027 are 53.6 million, 55.2 million, 58 million, and 61.5 million units respectively [2][3][28]. - The global demand for electric two-wheelers is increasing, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25.6% from 2023 to 2027 for overseas markets. Chinese manufacturers have advantages in supply chain and cost, with export sales expected to grow at an 11.5% CAGR [3][33][38]. Summary by Sections Chinese Market - The industry is driven by three main factors: 1. The demand for replacement due to new national standards is not fully released, with over 40% of vehicles needing replacement [8][13]. 2. The old-for-new policy is beneficial, with a significant existing vehicle base of nearly 400 million units, potentially increasing the replacement rate by 2-3 percentage points [16]. 3. New demand from both consumer and business sectors is contributing to sales growth, with electric two-wheelers serving as a complement to four-wheel vehicles in congested urban areas [18][21]. Overseas Market - The global demand for electric two-wheelers is steadily increasing, with a projected CAGR of 25.6% from 2023 to 2027. By 2027, overseas markets are expected to account for 33% of global sales [33][38]. - China, as the largest manufacturer, benefits from production scale, supply chain advantages, and diverse product offerings, with exports expected to grow at an 11.5% CAGR from 2022 to 2027 [38][43]. Industry Integration - The report highlights that industry consolidation is timely, favoring leading companies with competitive advantages. Future competition will focus on product differentiation and high-quality profit growth [4][6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of companies that maintain sales growth, prioritize product quality, and invest in research and development [4][6]. Company Analysis - Yadea (1585 HK) is expected to continue increasing its market share, with growth anticipated in both domestic and overseas markets [6]. - Ninebot (689009 CH) is positioned for growth through multiple business drivers, including electric two-wheelers and robotics [6]. - Greendot (2451 HK) is expanding its store capacity but needs to improve profitability [6].

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating for the technology sector [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12] Core Views - Huawei's HDC 2024 developer conference showcased significant advancements in AI and operating systems, particularly with the launch of HarmonyOS NEXT and PanGu Model 5.0 [1] - HarmonyOS NEXT represents a major shift as it no longer supports Android apps, focusing instead on a unified system across devices with performance improvements of 30% and a goal of 20% annual performance enhancement [1] - PanGu Model 5.0 introduces three major upgrades: full-series, multi-modal, and strong-thinking capabilities, with applications across 30+ industries and 400+ scenarios [2] - Harmony Intelligence, combining on-device and cloud-based AI, enhances user experience and system integration, similar to Apple's approach with Apple Intelligence [2] - Huawei's ecosystem, combining HarmonyOS and PanGu Model 5.0, is expected to drive further growth in the domestic AI and consumer electronics sectors [2] Key Highlights by Section HarmonyOS NEXT - HarmonyOS NEXT adopts a vertical integration architecture and no longer supports Android apps, focusing on a unified system across devices [1] - Performance improvements include a 10.7% boost over Linux kernel and a 30% overall system performance increase, with a target of 20% annual improvement [1] - Over 1,500 of the top 5,000 apps have been adapted for HarmonyOS NEXT, covering 99.9% of user usage time [1] - HarmonyOS has achieved a 17% market share in China, surpassing iOS's 16% [1] - Beta testing for HarmonyOS NEXT has begun, with a commercial release planned for Q4 2024 [1] PanGu Model 5.0 - PanGu Model 5.0 features full-series models ranging from billions to trillions of parameters, suitable for various business scenarios [2] - Multi-modal capabilities include support for 10K ultra-high resolution in image and video recognition, and the use of STCG technology for generating physically accurate multi-modal content [2] - Strong-thinking capabilities combine chain-of-thought techniques with strategic search, enhancing mathematical and complex task planning abilities [2] - The model has been applied in over 30 industries and 400 scenarios, including pharmaceuticals, robotics, and autonomous driving [2] Harmony Intelligence - Harmony Intelligence integrates AI deeply into the system using a hybrid on-device and cloud-based approach [2] - The on-device component combines personal data, user intent, UI, and AI subsystems, while the cloud leverages PanGu Model 5.0 and third-party models [2] - The upgraded XiaoYi assistant, based on PanGu Model 5.0, has improved memory and reasoning capabilities by 23% and 90%, respectively [2] - Huawei's ecosystem, combining HarmonyOS and PanGu Model 5.0, strengthens the integration of AI at both the architecture and system levels [2] Market and Industry Impact - Huawei's advancements are expected to drive growth in the domestic AI and consumer electronics sectors, particularly in smartphone and semiconductor industries [1][2] - Companies like Will Semiconductor, BYD Electronics, and GoerTek are highlighted as short-term beneficiaries, while enterprise and application software firms like iSoftStone and Thundersoft are seen as long-term opportunities [1]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the banking industry or the specific company discussed [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights concerns regarding asset-liability mismatch issues raised by the Japan Agricultural and Forestry Central Bank (Norinchukin), which plans to sell over 10 trillion yen (approximately 63 billion USD) in government bonds and expects a loss of 1.5 trillion yen by the end of the fiscal year 2025 [1][2]. - The bank's asset structure shows that securities account for 44%, while loans and discounted bills only account for 18%. The liabilities are primarily sourced from member bank deposits, which constitute 68% of the total [2]. - The report indicates that the bank's bond investments have been generating continuous losses since the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes began in 2022, with unrealized losses amounting to 2.2 trillion yen, representing 7% of the bond investment amounting to 31.3 trillion yen [2]. - The bank aims to adjust its investment portfolio by reducing its holdings in foreign sovereign bonds and increasing exposure to corporate and personal credit risks, including equities, corporate bonds, and securitized products [2]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Financial Performance - Norinchukin plans to sell over 10 trillion yen in bonds and expects a loss of 1.5 trillion yen for the fiscal year ending March 2025, which is an increase of 1 trillion yen from previous expectations [1]. - The bank's bond investments have resulted in significant unrealized losses due to the rising interest rates, with a total unrealized loss of 2.2 trillion yen reported for the fiscal year 2023 [2]. Section 2: Asset and Liability Structure - As of March 2024, the asset structure is heavily weighted towards securities (44%) and bonds (56%), with foreign bonds making up 75% of the bond portfolio [2][3]. - The liabilities are primarily composed of member bank deposits (68%) and repurchase agreements (14%) [2]. Section 3: Strategic Adjustments - The bank intends to sell U.S. government bonds to improve profitability and adjust its investment strategy, focusing on increasing allocations to corporate credit and equities [2]. - The report emphasizes the need for banks to closely monitor interest rate trends to manage asset-liability mismatch risks effectively [2].

收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 港元 31.85 港元 47.70 +49.8% 中国香港房地产 2024 年 6 月 21 日 我们近期走访了领展旗下的上海七宝万科广场，领展已于2024年2月完成 了对该公司剩余 50%股权的收购。以下是主要亮点： 几乎滿租且有正续租租金调整。据项目人员介绍，即使在 2020-22 年期 间，该项目的出租率也高达约 95%，高于其他邻近购物中心的 80 – 90%。 该项目在 2023 年实现约 11%的正续租租金调整率，即使在充满挑战的零 售环境下，管理人员仍预计在 2024 年可实现低个位数的正租金调整，主 要由餐饮支持。 资产增值、租户结构升级以保持增长。领展一直在优化租户组合，引入一 些热门品牌，如Lululemon、Salomon以及其他轻奢品牌，以提高租户的整 体租金承受能力。与此同时，购物中心在 4/5 层约 7,000 平方米的资产正 在进行资产提升计划，预计将于2024年3季度完成。领展表示，该区域大 部分面积已预租，预计竣工后可实现两位数的投资回报率，整体出租率将 恢复至 95%以上。 1 年单位价格表现 交银国际研究 公司更新 领展房托 (823 HK) 租 ...

全球领先细胞疗法平; 产能+适应症扩张驱动 Carvykti 销售快速爬坡 ◎ 公司目标2025年底产能达10,000剂，足以支持40亿美元以上的年销售 额。公司还通过和CMO合作解决短期产能紧缺问题。我们认为后续产 能释放将是重要的销售增长驱动力和股价催化剂。 交银国际研究 首次覆盖 财务数据一览 年结12月31日 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 收入 (百万美元) 117 285 600 1,051 1,382 同比增长 (%) 70.0 143.7 110.5 75.2 31.5 净利润 (百万美元) (446) (518) (366) (128) 81 每股盈利 (美元) (1.40) (1.47) (1.04) (0.36) 0.23 同比增长 (%) -2.1 4.9 -29.4 -64.9 -163.2 市盈率 (倍) NA NA NA NA 180.1 公司目标 2025 年底产能达 10,000 剂，为长期销售放量奠定基础。新泽西 州厂房 2023 年两次获 FDA 批准提高产能，同时早期复发适应症的获批有 望进一步提升生产成功率，将推动 2024 年销售爬坡。新泽西 ...

交银国际研究 消息快报 汽车 2024年6月13日 汽车行业 欧盟对中国电动汽车加征关税，不会阻碍中国车企出海步伐  欧盟委员会披露的临时关税比市场之前预期的25%略低。欧盟委员会披露 陈庆 了对从中国进口的电池电动汽车（BEV）征收的临时关税水平。欧盟委员 angus.chan@bocomgroup.com 会对三家抽样中国汽车生产商征收的关税分别为：比亚迪17.4%，吉利20% (86)2160653601 和上汽集团38.1%。另外对中国其他参与调查但尚未抽样的电池电动汽车 生产商将被征收21%的加权平均关税，“不配合调查的公司”将面临38.1% 的关税。另外欧盟委员会称，如果与中方的讨论不能得出有效的解决方 案，这些临时关税将从7月4日起引入。我们认为21%的临时关税比市场 之前预期的25%略低，同时对中国新能源车龙头比亚迪只征收17.4%的临 时关税。  具备规模效应和供应链优势的车企如比亚迪等在21%关税下依然具备竞争 力。我们认为部分具备规模效应和供应链优势的车企在~20%的关税下依 然具备竞争力。比亚迪的宋Plus 在欧盟的定价较中国高接近一倍，利润十 分可观，即使加征20~% 的关税，该 ...

交银国际研究 消息快报 科技 2024年6月11日 科技行业 WWDC2024：Apple Intelligence 等惊喜亮相，展示苹果 AI 软件发展 Ɵ 北京时间6月11日凌晨1点，一年一度的苹果全球开发者大会（WWDC） 王大卫,PhD,CFA 拉开帷幕，展示了苹果在人工智能软件方面的发展，包括推出苹果首个生 Dawei.wang@bocomgroup.com 成式 AI 大模型 Apple Intelligence，以及针对 visionOS 2、iOS 18、iPadOS (852)37661867 18、macOS 15 Sequoia等软件的更新。 Ɵ visionOS 2为娱乐和工作解锁更多新功能，Apple Vision Pro将在中国等八 童钰枫 个地区发售。仅在Apple Vision Pro美国发售四个月后，visionOS迎来更新， Carrie.Tong@bocomgroup.com 主要的更新包括：可将普通照片转化为空间照片、采用Mac虚拟显示器大 (852)37661804 幅提高工作效率，以及一众功能强大的全新开发者API。公司表示，目前 已有2,000多款专为Apple ...

交银国际研究 行业更新 行业评级 2024年6月11日 汽车行业月报 领先 5 月乘用车零售销量环比回升，预计 6 月份继续回暖  5月乘用车零售销量环比回升。2024年5月，随着以旧换新政策落地和北 行业与大盘一年趋势图 京车展的火热召开，消费者的购车需求得到释放，乘用车零售销量环比回 行业表现 恒生指数 升11.4%至171万辆，但由于去年基数较高，同比微降1.9%。2024年1-5 40% 30% 月销量累计约807.3万辆，同比增长5.7%。我们预计6月份因各车企将冲 20% 刺半年度业绩，消费者的情绪将继续回暖，销量将延续环比改善的态势。 10% 从 5 月份各车企的零售销量来看，比亚迪的市场份额仍遥遥领先，为 0% -10% 15.7%，吉利/奇瑞销量增长强劲，同比增31.6%/59.3%至12.4/8.9万辆，市 -20% 场份额分别为7.2%/5.2%。 -30% 6/23 10/23 2/24  5月新能源汽车零售渗透率继续上升至47%。5月新能源车零售销量录得 资料来源: FactSet 80.4万辆（同比/环比增38.5%/18.7%），渗透率环比提升3.0个百分点至 陈庆 47.0 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to JD, Alibaba, and Trip.com, indicating a positive outlook for these companies in the internet sector [2][10]. Core Insights - The issuance of convertible bonds by JD, Alibaba, and Trip.com is seen as a strategy to optimize financing costs and mitigate the impact of stock dilution through concurrent share buybacks [1][2]. - The report highlights that the financing will support overseas expansion and enhance supply chain networks, which is expected to improve operational efficiency and explore new markets [1][2]. - The companies' current stock prices are viewed as being at the lower end of their valuation ranges, with JD and Alibaba trading at 8.8x and 9.2x forward P/E ratios, respectively [2]. Summary by Relevant Sections Convertible Bond Issuance - JD plans to raise $2 billion with a 0.25% interest rate and a conversion price of $45.7 per share, primarily for share buybacks and overseas business expansion [5][6]. - Alibaba aims to raise $5 billion at a 0.5% interest rate with a conversion price of $105.04 per share, focusing on share buybacks and establishing capped call options [6][7]. - Trip.com is set to raise $1.5 billion with a 0.75% interest rate and a conversion price of $66.46 per share, intended for repaying existing financial debts and supporting overseas business [8][9]. Financial Health and Market Position - JD's cash reserves are reported at $13.6 billion, which will be bolstered by the new financing, aiding in share buybacks and international expansion [1]. - Alibaba has a cash reserve of $30.1 billion, with a remaining buyback capacity of $31.9 billion, indicating strong financial health [1]. - Trip.com has cash reserves of approximately $617 million, which will help in optimizing loan costs and supporting operational needs [1]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates that despite intense competition in the industry, improvements in user experience and technological investments will enhance business health and operational efficiency for JD and Alibaba [2]. - Trip.com is expected to benefit from the gradual release of travel demand, with structural changes in travel preferences leading to new demand increments [2].