今日焦点 | 人形机器人行业 | | --- | | 人形机器人系列（1） | | 产业跃迁：政策驱动、技术拐点与场景革命的 | | 三重共振 | | 陈庆 angus.chan@bocomgroup.com | 人形机器人需求广阔，中长期维度，我们更看好具有 to C 属性的具有家 庭市场。我们预计 2030 年后产业渗透率将进入指数级增长通道，2035 年全球出货量有望达 400 万-1000 万台，2024-35 年复合增长率 70.6%至 84.9%，其中服务人形机器人份额将上升至 84%。 政策和资本助力，内地人形机器人发展进入快车道。我们预计中国人形 机器人 2024-35 年的出货量年复合增长率将超过 75%，2035 年占全球市 场份额的 45%。 交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 4 月 3 日 智能化和零部件优势显著，中国内地有望复制新能源汽车成功经验。智 能化方面，中国内地在自动驾驶/智能驾驶领域积累了丰富的系统集成经 验，不仅加速研发进程，还能有效降低成本。本体量产方面，人形机器 人核心部件与新能源汽车供应链重叠度达 60%以上，中国内地人形机器 人本体制造具备规模化降本潜力。 量 ...

交银国际研究 行业更新 互联网及教育行业 2025 年关注竞争格局稳定下的变现提升潜力及出海进展 行业与大盘一年趋势图 4/24 8/24 12/24 4/25 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 行业表现 MSCI中国指数 资料来源 : FactSet 谷馨瑜, CPA connie.gu@bocomgroup.com (86) 10 8393 5330 孙梦琪 mengqi.sun@bocomgroup.com (86) 10 8393 5333 赵丽, CFA zhao.li@bocomgroup.com (86) 10 8393 5332 蔡涵 hanna.cai@bocomgroup.com (86) 10 8393 5334 此报告最后部分的分析师披露、商业关系披露和免责声明为报告的一部分，必须阅读。 下载本公司之研究报告，可从彭博信息：BOCM 或 https://research.bocomgroup.com 2025 年 4 月 2 日 回顾 2024 年覆盖公司业绩，有行业空间、商业化能力的公司收入增速亮 眼，大体量龙头公司收入增速虽放缓但持续保持业内领先优势 ...

2024 年业绩强劲势头不改，中医+AI 布局版图进一步清晰，维持买入 在老门店稳步爬坡和持续的对外扩张步伐下，公司 2024 年业绩延续强劲增长 态势，就诊量、会员用户粘性、医生供给等核心运营指标均交出满意答卷。 公司加大对中医+AI 模式的投入，有望在长期内贡献可观的业绩增量。 个股评级 买入 1 年股价表现 资料来源 : FactSet 4/24 8/24 12/24 -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 2273 HK 恒生指数 股份资料 交银国际研究 财务模型更新 医药 2025 年 4 月 2 日 固生堂 (2273 HK) 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 港元 33.25 港元 42.00 +26.3% | 52周高位 (港元) | 48.50 | | --- | --- | | 52周低位 (港元) | 26.25 | | 市值 (百万港元) | 7,820.40 | | 日均成交量 (百万) | 7.33 | | 年初至今变化 (%) | (1.63) | | 200天平均价 (港元) | 35.00 | | 资料来源 : FactSet | | 丁 ...

交银国际研究 财务模型更新 Gloria.Zhuge@bocomgroup.com (852) 3766 1845 医药 2025 年 4 月 2 日 固生堂 (2273 HK) 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 港元 33.25 港元 42.00 +26.3% 2024 年业绩强劲势头不改，中医+AI 布局版图进一步清晰，维持买入 在老门店稳步爬坡和持续的对外扩张步伐下，公司 2024 年业绩延续强劲增长 态势，就诊量、会员用户粘性、医生供给等核心运营指标均交出满意答卷。 公司加大对中医+AI 模式的投入，有望在长期内贡献可观的业绩增量。 个股评级 买入 1 年股价表现 资料来源 : FactSet 4/24 8/24 12/24 -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 2273 HK 恒生指数 股份资料 | 52周高位 (港元) | 48.50 | | --- | --- | | 52周低位 (港元) | 26.25 | | 市值 (百万港元) | 7,820.40 | | 日均成交量 (百万) | 7.33 | | 年初至今变化 (%) | (1.63) | | 2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 13.50, indicating a potential upside of 49.5% from the current price of HKD 9.03 [2][12]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see revenue growth driven by the demand for same-city delivery services, with projected growth rates of 23% for 2025 and 21% for 2026. However, the average delivery revenue per order may slightly decline year-on-year due to changes in order structure [2][6]. - Profit margins are anticipated to improve due to economies of scale, with management forecasting a profit margin of at least 2% by 2027, approaching the industry norm of 3-5% [2][6]. - The company reported a significant increase in net profit for 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 289% to RMB 79 million, driven by scale effects, customer structure optimization, and operational efficiency improvements [6][7]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to reach RMB 19,350 million in 2025, with a growth rate of 22.9% compared to the previous year. The revenue from same-city delivery services is expected to be RMB 11,316 million, while last-mile delivery is projected at RMB 8,034 million [5][13]. - The gross profit for 2025 is estimated at RMB 1,374 million, with a gross margin of 7.1% [5][13]. - Adjusted operating profit is expected to be RMB 293 million in 2025, with an adjusted operating margin of 1.5% [5][13]. Market Position and Performance - The company has shown resilience in its market position, with a market capitalization of approximately HKD 6,571.76 million and a 52-week high of HKD 12.60 [4][12]. - The average daily trading volume is reported at 0.69 million shares, indicating active trading interest [4][12]. - The stock has experienced a year-to-date change of -2.80%, reflecting market volatility [4][12].

交银国际研究 财务模型更新 | 互联网 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 4 月 2 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | | 10.48 | 港元 | 10.20↓ | -2.7% | | | 网龙网络 (777 HK) | | | | | | | 业绩短期承压，关注欧美教育市场改善及游戏下半年改善的趋势 2025 年公司游戏及教育业务收入增长面临不确定性，虽然通过 AI+战略有望实 现降本增效对运营费用的优化，短期利润或仍有下降压力，我们基于 SOTP， 将目标价从 14.00 港元下调至 10.20 港元，其中游戏维持 5 倍 2025 年市盈率不 变，评级下调至中性，关注欧美教育市场环境后续改善以及游戏调整期后下 半年恢复增长的趋势。 个股评级 中性↓ 1 年股价表现 资料来源 : FactSet 4/24 8/24 12/24 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 777 HK 恒生指数 股份资料 | 52周高位 (港元) | 12.78 | | --- | --- | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 6.28, indicating a potential upside of 27.4% from the current price of HKD 4.93 [1][12][18]. Core Insights - The company's performance met expectations, with a recovery in polysilicon prices, although the stock price has dropped significantly, making valuations attractive [2][7]. - The company reported a loss of RMB 39.1 billion for 2024, slightly better than the forecast median, with the polysilicon segment contributing a loss of approximately RMB 50 billion [7][8]. - The report highlights a significant increase in operating costs and a decline in average selling prices for polysilicon, which fell by 60% year-on-year to RMB 38,400 per ton [7][9]. Financial Overview - Revenue for 2023 is projected at RMB 30,752 million, with a decline to RMB 21,213 million in 2024, representing a year-on-year decrease of 31% [3][14]. - Net profit is expected to drop from RMB 4,345 million in 2023 to a loss of RMB 3,957 million in 2024, with a gradual recovery anticipated in subsequent years [3][14]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be RMB 3.04 in 2023, dropping to a loss of RMB 2.77 in 2024, before recovering to RMB 1.09 by 2027 [3][14]. Segment Performance - The polysilicon segment is expected to produce 19.9 million tons in 2024, with a sales volume of 19.9 million tons, maintaining a production/sales rate of 100.2% [9][10]. - The average selling price for polysilicon is projected to decline further in 2025, with a forecasted price of RMB 37,000 per ton [9][10]. - The report anticipates that the company's gross margin from polysilicon will remain negative in 2025, with a recovery expected in subsequent years as production costs decrease [9][10]. Valuation Methodology - The target price of HKD 6.28 is derived from a sum-of-the-parts valuation, with the polysilicon segment valued at RMB 14 billion and the non-polysilicon segments valued at RMB 70 billion based on a 5x earnings multiple [10][12]. - The report notes that the current price-to-book ratio is only 0.20, indicating that the stock is undervalued compared to its historical averages [7][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 13.50, indicating a potential upside of 49.5% from the current price of HKD 9.03 [2][12]. Core Insights - The company is expected to experience significant growth in revenue, with projections of 23% and 21% growth for the fiscal years 2025 and 2026, respectively, driven by demand for same-city delivery services and an increase in order volume [2][6]. - The management anticipates that profit margins will continue to improve, aiming for a margin of at least 2% by 2027, approaching the industry norm of 3-5% [2][6]. - The report highlights a notable trend of scalable profit growth, with a substantial increase in net profit expected in 2024, driven by operational efficiencies and an expanding customer base [6][7]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to reach RMB 19.35 billion in 2025, with a growth rate of 22.9% compared to the previous year [5][13]. - The gross profit is expected to be RMB 1.374 billion in 2025, reflecting a gross margin of 7.1% [5][13]. - Adjusted net profit is forecasted to be RMB 269 million in 2025, with an adjusted net profit margin of 1.4% [5][13]. Market Performance - The company's stock has a 52-week high of HKD 12.60 and a low of HKD 8.40, with a current market capitalization of approximately HKD 6.57 billion [4][12]. - The average daily trading volume is reported at 0.69 million shares [4]. Revenue Breakdown - The report indicates that the same-city delivery service revenue is expected to be RMB 11.316 billion in 2025, with a growth rate of 24% [7][13]. - Last-mile delivery revenue is projected to reach RMB 8.034 billion in 2025, with a growth rate of 21% [7][13]. Cost Structure - The total operating costs are expected to be RMB 17.977 billion in 2025, leading to a projected operating profit of RMB 274 million [7][13]. - The report outlines a focus on cost management and operational efficiency to enhance profitability [6][7]. Conclusion - The report presents a positive outlook for the company, emphasizing its growth potential in the same-city delivery market and the expected improvement in profit margins over the coming years [2][6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 6.28, indicating a potential upside of 27.4% from the current price of HKD 4.93 [1][12][13]. Core Insights - The company's performance met expectations, with a recovery in polysilicon prices, although the stock price has dropped significantly, making valuations attractive [2][7]. - The company reported a loss of RMB 39.1 billion for 2024, slightly better than the forecast median, with the polysilicon segment contributing a loss of approximately RMB 50 billion [7]. - The report highlights a significant increase in operational costs and a decline in average selling prices for polysilicon, which fell by 60% year-on-year to RMB 38,400 per ton [7][9]. Financial Overview - Revenue for 2023 is projected at RMB 30,752 million, with a decline to RMB 21,213 million in 2024, representing a year-on-year decrease of 31% [3][14]. - Net profit is expected to drop from RMB 4,345 million in 2023 to a loss of RMB 3,957 million in 2024, with a gradual recovery anticipated in subsequent years [3][14]. - The company’s polysilicon production is forecasted to be 19.9 million tons in 2024, with a sales volume of 19.9 million tons, reflecting a slight decrease in sales [9][14]. Segment Valuation - The report uses a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, estimating the polysilicon segment at RMB 14 billion and the non-polysilicon segments at RMB 70 billion, leading to a total valuation of RMB 84 billion [10][12]. - The estimated value per share from the non-polysilicon segments is HKD 5.24, while the total target price is set at HKD 6.28 [10][12]. Market Performance - The stock has experienced a year-to-date decline of 34.18%, with a 52-week high of HKD 10.92 and a low of HKD 4.93 [6][12]. - The current price-to-book ratio is 0.20, indicating that the stock is trading at a significant discount to its book value [7][12].

交银国际研究 财务模型更新 | 互联网 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 4 月 2 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | | 10.48 | 港元 | 10.20↓ | -2.7% | | | 网龙网络 (777 HK) | | | | | | | 业绩短期承压，关注欧美教育市场改善及游戏下半年改善的趋势 2025 年公司游戏及教育业务收入增长面临不确定性，虽然通过 AI+战略有望实 现降本增效对运营费用的优化，短期利润或仍有下降压力，我们基于 SOTP， 将目标价从 14.00 港元下调至 10.20 港元，其中游戏维持 5 倍 2025 年市盈率不 变，评级下调至中性，关注欧美教育市场环境后续改善以及游戏调整期后下 半年恢复增长的趋势。 个股评级 中性↓ 1 年股价表现 资料来源 : FactSet 4/24 8/24 12/24 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 777 HK 恒生指数 股份资料 | 52周高位 (港元) | 12.78 | | --- | --- | ...