交银国际研究 | 燃气 收盘价 | | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 3 月 27 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | 7.84 | 港元 9.02↓ | +15.1% | | | 昆仑能源 (135 HK) | | | | | 2025 年零售气增长目标进取，估值仍有提升空间 财务数据一览 | 年结12月31日 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收入 (百万人民币) | 177,354 | 187,046 | 200,497 | 214,994 | 230,056 | | 同比增长 (%) | 3.1 | 5.5 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 7.0 | | 净利润 (百万人民币) | 5,682 | 5,960 | 6,948 | 7,492 | 8,076 | | 每股盈利 (人民币) | 0.71 | 0.73 | 0.80 | 0.87 | 0.93 | | 同比增长 (%) | -2.2 | 3.5 | 9.3 | ...

交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 3 月 27 日 今日焦点 | 昆仑能源 | | 135 HK | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年零售气增长目标进取，估值仍有提升空间 | | 评级: 买入 | | 收盘价: 港元 | 7.84 目标价: 港元 9.02↓ | 潜在涨幅: +15.1% | | 郑民康 | | wallace.cheng@bocomgroup.com | 公司 2024 年核心盈利同比增长 3.5%至 63.6 亿元，略低于我们预期 2%， 主要原因为 LNG/上游板块盈利低于预期，当中 LNG 码头利用率比我们预 期略低 1.6 个百分点，加上 LNG 加工厂费用高于预期。 公司对 2025 年零售气量增长预期为 8%，我们认为公司在去年增加 8 个 城燃项目，以及新增 18%/21%工/商用户后有增量的基础。估计 2025 年 售气毛差保持每方 0.47 元。 我们下调公司 2025/26 年盈利预测 3.7%/5.0%，以反映对经营开支预测的 变动。我们预期公司 2025/26 年盈利同比增长 8.5%/7.3%。基于 10.5 倍 2025 年市盈率，我们 ...

交银国际研究 公司更新 | 医药 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 3 月 27 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | | 54.20 | 港元 65.00↑ | +19.9% | | | 云顶新耀 (1952 HK) | | | | | | 2024 年实现商业化层面盈利，耐赋康快速渗透目标市场，上调目标价 | 财务数据一览 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 年结12月31日 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 收入 (百万人民币) | 126 | 707 | 1,689 | 2,819 | 3,908 | | 同比增长 (%) | 884.5 | 461.2 | 138.9 | 66.9 | 38.6 | | 净利润 (百万人民币) | (844) | (1,041) | (264) | 311 | 794 | | 每股盈利 (人民币) | (2.80) | (3.24) | (0.81) | 0.96 ...

交银国际研究 公司更新 | 医药 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 3 月 27 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | | 54.20 | 港元 65.00↑ | +19.9% | | | 云顶新耀 (1952 HK) | | | | | | 2024 年实现商业化层面盈利，耐赋康快速渗透目标市场，上调目标价 | 财务数据一览 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 年结12月31日 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 收入 (百万人民币) | 126 | 707 | 1,689 | 2,819 | 3,908 | | 同比增长 (%) | 884.5 | 461.2 | 138.9 | 66.9 | 38.6 | | 净利润 (百万人民币) | (844) | (1,041) | (264) | 311 | 794 | | 每股盈利 (人民币) | (2.80) | (3.24) | (0.81) | 0.96 ...

交银国际研究 公司更新 | 互联网 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 3 月 26 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | | 502.00 | 港元 583.00 | +16.1% | | | 腾讯控股 (700 HK) | | | | | | 常青游戏贡献总收入 20%，MOBA/射击优势显著，海外增长领先行业 | 财务数据一览 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 年结12月31日 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 收入 (百万人民币) | 609,015 | 660,257 | 713,818 | 767,880 | 818,920 | | 收入 (百万人民币) | 609,015 | 660,257 | 713,818 | 767,880 | 818,920 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 同比增长 (%) | 9.8 | 8.4 | 8.1 | 7. ...

交银国际研究 财务模型更新 | 汽车 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 3 月 26 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | | 14.96 | 港元 | 19.84↑ | +32.6% | | | 雅迪控股 (1585 HK) | | | | | | | 以旧换新+出海提速，新国标落地后扬帆起航；维持买入 受新旧国标过渡以及去库存影响，雅迪控股 2024 全年收入和净利润下滑，基 本符合业绩预告。新国标落地和以旧换新推动下，中国内地两轮车行业进入 新周期，技术、渠道、产品力加持下，雅迪作为行业龙头有望受益，此外， 雅迪海外业务提速中。上调目标价至 19.84 港元，并维持买入评级。 李柳晓, PhD, CFA joyce.li@bocomgroup.com (86) 21 6065 3601 盈利预测变动 | | | ———— 2025E ———— | | | ———— 2026E ———— | | | ———— 2027E ———— | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

| 医药 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 3 月 26 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | | 25.90 | 港元 25.00↑ | -3.5% | | | 药明生物 (2269 HK) | | | | | | 2H24 业绩复苏，RDM 三大业务端边际改善确定性较强，上调目标价 个股评级 中性 1 年股价表现 : FactSet 3/24 7/24 11/24 3/25 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 2269 HK 恒生指数 股份资料 | 52周高位 (港元) | 28.50 | | --- | --- | | 52周低位 (港元) | 10.26 | | 市值 (百万港元) | 106,372.34 | | 日均成交量 (百万) | 34.12 | | 年初至今变化 (%) | 47.49 | | 200天平均价 (港元) | 18.39 | | 资料来源 : FactSet | | 交银国际研究 公司更新 丁政宁 Ethan.Ding@bocomgroup.com ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price raised to HKD 64.00, indicating a potential upside of 12.7% from the current price of HKD 56.80 [4][27]. Core Insights - The company's Q4 performance met expectations, with total revenue and adjusted net profit reaching RMB 35.4 billion and RMB 4.7 billion respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 9% and 8% [2][8]. - The report highlights the acceleration of commercialization for the company's AI product, "可灵", which has generated RMB 100 million in revenue as of February [8]. - Revenue growth is projected to continue, with expectations of a 12% increase in 2025, driven by e-commerce GMV growth of 13% and online marketing revenue growth of 14% [8]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 113.47 billion in 2023, RMB 126.90 billion in 2024, RMB 141.64 billion in 2025, RMB 152.94 billion in 2026, and RMB 164.07 billion in 2027, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 20.5%, 11.8%, 11.6%, 8.0%, and 7.3% [3][28]. - Net profit is expected to rise from RMB 10.27 billion in 2023 to RMB 28.59 billion in 2027, with adjusted net profit projected at RMB 20.16 billion in 2025 [3][28]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to increase from RMB 2.31 in 2023 to RMB 6.55 in 2027, with a significant jump to RMB 4.60 in 2025 [3][28]. Market Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 37.36% and has a market capitalization of approximately HKD 202.49 billion [6][8]. - The stock's 52-week high and low are HKD 66.35 and HKD 38.15 respectively, indicating a strong recovery from its lows [6]. Business Segments - E-commerce GMV grew by 14% year-on-year, with the number of active merchants increasing by over 25% [8]. - Online marketing revenue increased by 13%, primarily driven by external advertising, while live streaming revenue saw a slight decline of 2% [8]. - The local life services segment reported a significant increase, with monthly payment users and GMV growing by 52% and 100% respectively [8].