交银国际研究 财务模型更新 | 医药 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | | 潜在涨幅 | 2026 年 2 月 27 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | | 58.35 | 港元 | 91.00 | +55.9% | | | 药明合联 (2268 HK) | | | | | | | 1 年股价表现 个股评级 买入 资料来源： FactSet 2/25 6/25 10/25 2/26 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 2268 HK 恒生指数 XDC 赛道融资/BD 开年延续较高热情，公司有望持续获益，维持买入 作为反映 CRDMO 业务需求的先行指标，全球 CXO 赛道的投融资和 BD 交易在 2026 年初延续了过去两年的极高活跃度。我们看好药明合联受益于这一行业 景气度稳步提升的关键趋势，预计综合订单数量在 2025-27 年将录得 20%以 上增长、后期/商业化订单贡献快速提升。维持 91 港元目标价、买入评级及 中国 CXO 行业首推。 股份资料 | 52周高位 (港元) | ...

交银国际研究 行业更新 行业评级 领先 2026 年 2 月 27 日 医药行业周报 ASCO GU 大会召开在即，板块波动中持续看好低估创新标的 行业与大盘一年趋势图 资料来源： FactSet 2/25 6/25 10/25 2/26 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 行业表现 恒生指数 丁政宁 Ethan.Ding@bocomgroup.com (852) 3766 1834 诸葛乐懿 Gloria.Zhuge@bocomgroup.com (852) 3766 1845 估值概要 | 公司名称 | 股票代码 评级 | | 目标价 | 收盘价 | | -----每股盈利----- | ----市盈率---- | | | ----市账率---- 股息率 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | FY26E | | | FY27E FY26E FY27E FY26E FY27E FY26E | | | | | | | | | ...

| 医药 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | | 潜在涨幅 | 2026 年 2 月 27 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | | 58.35 | 港元 | 91.00 | +55.9% | | | 药明合联 (2268 HK) | | | | | | | XDC 赛道融资/BD 开年延续较高热情，公司有望持续获益，维持买入 交银国际研究 财务模型更新 | 52周高位 (港元) | 85.10 | | --- | --- | | 52周低位 (港元) | 28.85 | | 市值 (百万港元) | 73,403.72 | | 日均成交量 (百万) | 8.31 | | 年初至今变化 (%) | (3.95) | | 200天平均价 (港元) | 67.30 | 作为反映 CRDMO 业务需求的先行指标，全球 CXO 赛道的投融资和 BD 交易在 2026 年初延续了过去两年的极高活跃度。我们看好药明合联受益于这一行业 景气度稳步提升的关键趋势，预计综合订单数量在 2025-27 年将录得 20%以 上增长、后期/商业化订单贡献快速提升。维持 ...

交银国际研究 每日晨报 2026 年 2 月 27 日 今日焦点 | 药明合联 | | 2268 HK | | --- | --- | --- | | XDC 赛道融资/BD | 开年延续较高热情，公司有望 | 评级: 买入 | | 持续获益，维持买入 | | | | 收盘价: 港元 58.35 | 目标价: 港元 91.00 | 潜在涨幅: +55.9% | | 丁政宁 | Ethan.Ding@bocomgroup.com | | 全球 XDC 赛道投融资/BD 交易持续活跃：据我们统计，2026 年前两个月 全球 XDC 赛道共发生 25 项投融资事件，相比 2025 年同期的 18 项显著 增长；XDC 候选药物 BD 交易呈现类似趋势，交易数量保持稳定、合计 首付款总额大幅增长。2024 年年初以来，XDC 领域投融资事件数、BD 交易数和首付款总额呈逐步上升态势。投融资和 BD 交易持续活跃，将 进一步拉动 XDC CRDMO 行业下游需求改善，药明合联作为技术实力和 一体化交付能力布局的龙头企业，有望持续受益于这一重要趋势、并扩 大市场份额。 维持目标价和买入评级：我们基于公司 2025 年盈利 ...

交银国际研究 每日晨报 2026 年 2 月 26 日 今日焦点 | 金融行业 | | --- | | 银行业追踪：整体经营环境改善；关注股份 | | 制银行结构性机会 | | 金天 Timothy.Jin@bocomgroup.com | 伴随市场主体内生增长动力逐步修复，银行经营环境正在改善。以招商 银行（3968 HK/未评级）、中信银行（998 HK/未评级）等为代表的股份 制银行 2025 年经营业绩保持稳健。其中，招商银行作为公认的零售业务 标杆银行，当前中高端客群风险偏好在改善中，对营收贡献略有下降， 但整体营收、净利润等核心指标已有改善；中信银行作为传统对公银行， 净利润同比增速企稳回升。 2026 年是"十五五"规划的开局之年，财政、货币政策进一步发力有望 拉动企业端信贷需求，改善个人端投资和消费预期，助力银行业务发展 稳中向好；同时，净息差有所企稳，不良率保持低位，亦将为银行业绩 增长提供支撑。在长线资金持续入市过程中，建议重点关注基本面稳定、 同时股息较高的股份制银行的结构性机会。 | 全球主要指数 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收盘价 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hua Hong Semiconductor (1347 HK) with a target price of HKD 120.00, indicating a potential upside of 27.5% from the current price of HKD 94.15 [1][12]. Core Insights - Hua Hong Semiconductor's production capacity is accelerating, particularly at its new factory, which is expected to enhance overall operational efficiency and sales network optimization. The management anticipates that the first phase of the new factory will reach full production within two years [7]. - The company is experiencing strong demand for PMIC and MCU products, driven by AI-related applications, which is positively impacting overall demand for its products [7]. - The financial outlook shows a significant recovery in net profit, projected to reach USD 190 million in 2026, with a substantial increase in earnings per share (EPS) to USD 0.11 [6][9]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for Hua Hong Semiconductor are as follows: USD 2,004 million in 2024, USD 2,402 million in 2025, and USD 2,843 million in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 18.4% in 2026 [6][13]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve, with projections of 14.2% in 2026 and 16.2% in 2027 [9][13]. - The company’s capital expenditures are forecasted to decrease to USD 1.81 billion in 2025, with further investments planned for capacity expansion in subsequent years [7][9].

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook for the financial industry, suggesting a "Leading" rating for the sector over the next 12 months, indicating expected performance to be attractive compared to the benchmark index [16]. Core Insights - The financial industry is experiencing a recovery in credit demand from households, with January 2026 seeing new RMB loans of 4.71 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 420 billion yuan. However, household loans increased by 456.5 billion yuan, showing a marginal recovery in demand [4][5]. - The total social financing (社融) in January 2026 reached 7.22 trillion yuan, an increase of 166.2 billion yuan year-on-year, driven by fiscal efforts and seasonal factors related to the Spring Festival [4]. - M1 and M2 growth rates accelerated in January 2026, with M1 growing at 4.9% and M2 at 9.0%, indicating an increase in liquidity in the market [4]. - The report highlights a shift in deposit structure, with total new RMB deposits of 8.09 trillion yuan in January 2026, an increase of 3.77 trillion yuan year-on-year, although household deposits decreased by 339 billion yuan [4][5]. Summary by Sections Credit Demand - In January 2026, household loans increased by 456.5 billion yuan, with short-term loans rising by 159.4 billion yuan, while corporate loans totaled 4.45 trillion yuan, a decrease of 330 billion yuan year-on-year [4][5]. Social Financing - New social financing in January 2026 was 7.22 trillion yuan, with government bonds increasing by 283.1 billion yuan and bank acceptance bills rising by 163.9 billion yuan [4][5]. Monetary Supply - M1 growth rate was 4.9%, ending a three-month decline, while M2 growth rate was 9.0%, indicating improved liquidity conditions in the financial system [4]. Deposits - New RMB deposits totaled 8.09 trillion yuan in January 2026, with household deposits decreasing by 339 billion yuan year-on-year, while corporate deposits increased by 2.82 trillion yuan [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook for the financial industry, suggesting a "Leading" rating for the sector over the next 12 months, indicating expected performance to be attractive compared to the benchmark index [16]. Core Insights - In January 2026, new RMB loans amounted to 4.71 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 420 billion yuan, with household loans increasing by 456.5 billion yuan, showing a marginal recovery in demand [4][5]. - The total social financing (社融) in January 2026 reached 7.22 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.66 trillion yuan year-on-year, driven by fiscal efforts and seasonal factors related to the Spring Festival [4][5]. - M1 and M2 growth rates accelerated in January, with M1 increasing by 4.9% and M2 by 9.0%, indicating improved liquidity in the market [4][5]. - The report highlights a shift in deposit structure, with total new RMB deposits reaching 8.09 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.77 trillion yuan, although household deposits saw a decrease [4][5]. Summary by Sections Credit and Social Financing Data - New RMB loans in January 2026: 47,100 million yuan, down 4,200 million yuan year-on-year [5]. - Household loans: 4,565 million yuan, up 127 million yuan year-on-year; short-term loans increased by 1,594 million yuan [5]. - Corporate loans: 44,500 million yuan, down 3,300 million yuan year-on-year; short-term loans increased by 3,100 million yuan [5]. - Total new social financing: 72,200 million yuan, up 1,662 million yuan year-on-year [5]. Deposit Trends - New RMB deposits: 80,900 million yuan, up 37,700 million yuan year-on-year; household deposits decreased by 33,900 million yuan [5]. - Corporate deposits increased by 28,160 million yuan year-on-year [5]. Monetary Supply Growth - M1 growth rate: 4.9%, ending a three-month decline; M2 growth rate: 9.0%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month [4].

Core Insights - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Huahong Semiconductor, with a target price raised to HKD 120, indicating a potential upside of 27.5% from the closing price of HKD 94.15 [1] - The revenue for Q4 2025 reached USD 659.9 million, a 3.9% increase quarter-over-quarter, aligning closely with previous guidance [1] - The gross margin for Q4 2025 was 13.0%, which is the median of the prior guidance range of 12-14%, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous quarter [1] Production Capacity and Financial Projections - Huahong's ninth factory is accelerating production, with an expected increase of 42 kwpm in 12-inch equivalent capacity in 2025, potentially reaching a total capacity of 83 kwpm by the end of 2026 [2] - Capital expenditures for 2025 are projected at USD 1.81 billion, a year-over-year decrease of 34%, with forecasts of USD 1.62 billion and USD 2.40 billion for 2026 and 2027, respectively [2] - Revenue projections for 2026 and 2027 have been adjusted to USD 2.843 billion and USD 3.349 billion, respectively, with gross margin estimates of 14.2% and 16.2% for the same years [2] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 27,081.91, reflecting a 1.41% increase over the past five days and a 5.66% increase year-to-date [5] - Key global indices showed varied performance, with the Dow Jones down 1.66% and the S&P 500 down 1.04% [3] - Commodity prices have seen significant movements, with Brent crude oil rising by 7.36% over the past three months and gold futures increasing by 19.95% [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) [2][12]. Core Views - The report indicates that the impact of memory price increases on demand is relatively controllable, and the company is expected to perform well in the upcoming quarters [6][12]. - The target price for SMIC has been adjusted to HKD 91.00, reflecting a potential upside of 30% from the current price of HKD 70.00 [1][12]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for SMIC are as follows: - 2024: USD 8,030 million - 2025: USD 9,327 million - 2026E: USD 10,685 million - 2027E: USD 12,357 million - 2028E: USD 14,060 million - Year-on-year growth rates are projected at 27.0% for 2024, 16.2% for 2025, and 14.6% for 2026 [5][13]. - Net profit estimates are: - 2024: USD 493 million - 2025: USD 685 million - 2026E: USD 1,199 million - 2027E: USD 1,547 million - 2028E: USD 2,021 million [5][13]. Performance Metrics - The company reported a gross margin of 19.2% for Q4 2025, which is a decrease from 22.6% in Q4 2024 [7]. - The net profit margin for Q4 2025 was 6.9%, up from 4.9% in Q4 2024 [7]. - The report anticipates a rise in depreciation levels by 30% in 2026, which may exert pressure on the company's gross margin [6][12]. Market Position - The company is positioned to benefit from the domestic substitution process in the wafer foundry industry, which is expected to continue driving growth [6][12]. - The management has indicated that the sales growth for 2026 is expected to exceed the average of comparable peers [6].