估值：我们下调 2024 年收入/净利润预期 3%/16%。基于 2023-25 年净利润 复合增速 13%，给予 10 倍 2024 年市盈率，下调目标价至 4.2 美元（原为 6.7 美元）。会员数有望 2 季度触底，3 季度重点内容热度表现符合预期， 预计带动收入恢复增长及利润释放确定性提升，维持买入。尽管中短期单 平台会员增长瓶颈仍存，但长视频行业受益于 AIGC 强化创新、降本提效 趋势不变。另外，建议关注行业对"后验激励"模式的探索和推进，长期 或促进优质内容产出并带来利润的进一步释放。 此报告最后部分的分析师披露、商业关系披露和免责声明为报告的一部分，必须阅读。 下载本公司之研究报告，可从彭博信息：BOCM 或 https://research.bocomgroup.com 1 年股价表现 资料来源: FactSet 7/23 11/23 3/24 7/24 -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%IQ US MSCI中国指数 赵丽, CFA zhao.li@bocomgroup.com (86) 10 8800 9788-8054 孙梦琪 mengqi.sun@bo ...

2024 年 2 季度业绩预览：我们预计收入 23 亿元（人民币，下同），与彭 博市场预期基本一致，同比下降 12%，下调 4 个百分点主要因京东到家广 告收入低于预期，达达快送/京东到家收入分别同比+44%/-46%（Visible Alpha 一致预期+40%/-41%）；经调整净亏损 1.7 亿元，对应亏损率 7.4%， 对比彭博市场预期亏损 1.9 亿元。 1 年股价表现 资料来源: FactSet 7/23 11/23 3/24 7/24 -80% -70% -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% DADA US MSCI中国指数 2 季度业绩预览：快送业务表现优异，京东场域结合仍未大规模变现 估值：我们微调 2024 年收入预期，维持 2025-26 年总收入预期，其中，上 调2024年达达快送收入约3个百分点，以反映即时配送市场需求稳健以及 公司在第三方即时配送行业的领先地位，下调京东到家收入约 6 个百分 点，考虑与京东场域融合广告平台的打通及变现仍不是首要目标。因此对 于 2025-26 年利润表现预期仍有不确定性，我们将估值基准调整至 2025 年 ...

2024年7月18日 Territy File e contribution 分 忻师 . T 政 宁 星榜 云牌专题是在线理而至,悬在MN三药企头上的 [NOT]前期 全球原标签专利到期按收入计的风险敞口达30%。我们 认为人有前仍存在专利悬崖的潜在影响被低估或高估的 尚未完全反映在相关企业的当前股价中。 - 首次看 無 同時代表 MNC大药企全副武装应对专利悬崖,在MNC大药企中, 我们建议重点关注阿斯利康、诺华、艾伯维、默沙东、 罗氏等公司的创新管线进展。 AZN US 中国创新药板块的估值仍未完全反映巨大的产品出海潜 力,随着更多重磅数据和交易落地,估值有较大修复容 间,建议重点关注康方、康诺亚、石药人 先声等公司。 日的參與自己 重点公司研究:我们看好阿斯利康相对分散的专利悬崖 风险和在ADC、呼吸 / 免疫等赛道上的差异化布局。对于 BMS,我们认为重磅品种专利集中到期的风险仍未完全 反映日股价中,估值中枢仍将进一步下行。 BMY US 交報国际研究 行业制析 2024 年 7 月 18 日 质 药行业-跨国 火方 药企 MNC 重磅产品专利悬崖下众生相:危与杭并存 ,龙头各显神通 ⊙ 全球原研究 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kuaishou (1024 HK) with a target price adjusted to HKD 55.00, down from HKD 75.00, indicating a potential upside of 17.6% from the current price of HKD 46.75 [1][2][9]. Core Insights - The report anticipates a slowdown in GMV growth for the second quarter, revising the e-commerce GMV growth forecast to 19% for Q2 and 21% for the full year, down from previous estimates of 25% and 24% respectively. This adjustment is attributed to a general market slowdown and increased competition in the live-streaming e-commerce sector [1][2]. - Kuaishou's advertising revenue is expected to grow rapidly, driven by AI-enabled marketing products, with a projected 22% year-on-year increase in Q2 advertising revenue to RMB 17.5 billion [1][2]. - The report projects a revenue of RMB 30.45 billion for Q2 2024, reflecting a 10% year-on-year growth, and an adjusted net profit of RMB 4.4 billion, representing a 63% increase year-on-year [1][2]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Kuaishou are as follows: - 2023: RMB 113.47 billion - 2024E: RMB 127.70 billion - 2025E: RMB 143.03 billion - 2026E: RMB 158.26 billion - The adjusted net profit is expected to reach RMB 18.22 billion in 2024, with a significant increase from RMB 10.27 billion in 2023 [3][10]. - The report highlights a gradual improvement in the company's revenue structure, which is expected to positively impact gross margins, with a projected gross margin of 55% for Q2 2024 [7][10].

短期广告仍承压，仍需关注 AIGC 对搜索及商业化改造进程 百度核心业务 2 季度收入增长仍承压。1）我们预计广告收入同比降 3%至 190亿元，较此前下调5%，主要因用户侧AI搜索改造影响传统广告点击， 及部分行业如地产、汽车等广告主需求较为疲软。公司预期 AI 生成搜索 内容占比将进一步提升（1 季度 11%），预计对广告商业化负面影响将持 续至下半年。2）云业务基本维持预期，预计收入 51 亿元，同比增 14%， 企业对 AI 大模型的需求及 API 调用随着使用量上升加速起量推动 AI 相关高 质量收入增长。利润层面，虽广告收入低于此前预期，但公司持续关注成 本控制及运营效率优化，维持核心经调整营运利润率预测 25%。 百度披露截至 1 季度，萝卜快跑在 10+个城市运营，季度单量 83 万（日单 9000+）。运营成本下降取决于远程安全员及新款车型 RT6 的量产上线： 1）武汉无人驾驶单量比例持续提升，2季度/4月为55%+/70%+，预计未来 几个季度达 100%。2）受武汉测试区域的扩大拉动，公司预计 2024 年内 在武汉投放 1000 辆 RT6（单车 20.46 万元），将有效优化运营成 ...

交银国际证券有限公司及/或其集团公司现持有东方证券股份有限公司、光大证券股份有限公司及Interra Acquisition Corp的已发行股本逾1%。 本报告之收取者透过接受本报告 (包括任何有关的附件)，表示幷保证其根据下述的条件下有权获得本报告，幷且同意受此中包含的限制条件 所约束。任何没有遵循这些限制的情况可能构成法律之违反。 本报告为高度机密，幷且只以非公开形式供交银国际证券的客户阅览。本报告只在基于能被保密的情况下提供给阁下。未经交银国际证券事 先以书面同意，本报告及其中所载的资料不得以任何形式(i)复制、复印或储存，或者(ii) 直接或者间接分发或者转交予任何其它人作任何用 途。 交银国际证券、其联属公司、关联公司、董事、关联方及/或雇员，可能持有在本报告内所述或有关公司之证券、幷可能不时进行买卖、或 对其有兴趣。此外，交银国际证券、其联属公司及关联公司可能与本报告内所述或有关的公司不时进行业务往来，或为其担任市场庄家，或 被委任替其证券进行承销，或可能以委托人身份替客户买入或沽售其证劵，或可能为其担当或争取担当幷提供投资银行、顾问、包销、融资 或其它服务，或替其从其它实体寻求同类型之服务。投 ...

交银国际研究 行业更新 2024 年 7 月 16 日 电池行业月报 电池出口增长强劲,多款快充/超充电池新品发布;关注行业规范落地执行情况 下游需求带动动力电池装车量,磷酸铁锂装车占比进一步提升。产量:6 月,我国电池总产量为 84.5 GWh,同比增长 28.7%;1-6 月,累计产量为 430.0 GWh,同比增长36.9%。销量:6 月,我国电池销量为92.2 GWh,同 比增长 51.2%。1-6 月,电池累计销量为 402.6 GWh,同比增长 40.3%。其 中,动力电池当月销量为 69.3 GWh,同比增长 37.0%;1-6 月累计销量为 318.1 GWh,同比增长 26.6%。装车量:6 月,我国动力电池装车量 42.8 GWh,同比增长 30.2%。其中三元电池/磷酸铁锂电池装车量分别为 11.1 GWh/31.7 GWh,分别同比增长 10.2%/39.3%,磷酸铁锂占比总装车量 74.0%。1-6 月,我国动力电池累计装车量 203.3 GWh,同比增长 33.7%。 6 月电池出口整体表现强劲。6 月,我国电池合计出口 18.4 GWh,同比增 长 67.8%,合计出口占当月销量 ...

交银国际研究 行业更新 2024 年 7 月 15 日 行业与大盘一年趋势图 7/23 11/23 3/24 7/24 -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 行业表现 MSCI中国指数 资料来源: FactSet 6 月电商月报:大促错期,2 季度行业中个位数增长 估值概要 赵丽, CFA zhao.li@bocomgroup.com (86) 10 8800 9788-8054 蔡涵 hanna.cai@bocomgroup.com (86) 10 8800 9788-8041 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------|---------------------------------|--------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Bilibili (BILI US) with a target price of $20.00, indicating a potential upside of 19.7% from the current closing price of $16.71 [1][38]. Core Insights - The report slightly raises the revenue forecast for Q2 2024 by 1% to RMB 6.1 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 16%, primarily driven by better-than-expected performance from new games [1]. - The report anticipates a gross margin expansion of 6% year-on-year and 1% quarter-on-quarter to 29%, attributed to economies of scale and an increased proportion of advertising revenue [1]. - The adjusted net loss for the company is expected to narrow to RMB 330 million, a 66% reduction compared to the same period last year [1]. Revenue Forecast - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 26.6 billion, reflecting an 18% year-on-year increase, with mobile gaming revenue expected to reach RMB 5.4 billion, a 34% increase [13][36]. - The report highlights that the game "Sanmou" is expected to contribute significantly to revenue, accounting for 26% and 43% of game income in 2024 and 2025, respectively [36]. Financial Performance - The report outlines a forecast for total revenue growth from RMB 22.5 billion in 2023 to RMB 30.2 billion in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 13.6% [13]. - The adjusted net profit is expected to improve from a loss of RMB 3.4 billion in 2023 to a profit of RMB 1.1 billion in 2025 [13]. Market Position and Strategy - The report emphasizes the company's focus on enhancing its advertising infrastructure and expanding its game portfolio, particularly in traditional genres like RPGs and card games [12]. - The advertising revenue from key sectors such as gaming, digital appliances, and online education has shown significant growth, with increases of 30%, 50%, and 100%, respectively [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for TAL Education Group (TAL US) with a target price of USD 15.50, representing a potential upside of 47.3% from the current price of USD 10.52 [1][10]. Core Insights - The report highlights TAL's strong revenue growth, projecting a 42% year-over-year increase in Q1 FY2025, with expected revenues of USD 390 million [2][3]. - The company is expanding its teaching points significantly, with an estimated 14% quarter-over-quarter increase and a year-over-year growth of approximately 65-70% [2][3]. - TAL's hardware sales, particularly the new learning machine launched in May, are expected to drive high growth, with sales estimates of 70,000 to 80,000 units for the quarter [2][3]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for TAL are as follows: USD 1,490 million for FY2024, USD 2,036 million for FY2025, and USD 2,514 million for FY2026, with respective growth rates of 46.2%, 36.6%, and 23.5% [4][11]. - The adjusted net profit is expected to reach USD 142 million in FY2025, with a significant increase of 67% year-over-year [3][4]. - The report estimates a non-GAAP net profit of USD 85 million for FY2024 and USD 142 million for FY2025, indicating a recovery from previous losses [11]. Valuation Metrics - The current price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 47 times for FY2025, with a price/earnings growth (PEG) ratio of 0.7, suggesting an attractive valuation [3][4]. - The report indicates a projected gross margin of 56.3% for FY2025, reflecting operational efficiency improvements [11].