交银国际研究 公司更新 | 新能源 收盘价 | | 目标价 | | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 4 月 1 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | 3.81 | 港元 | 3.47↓ | -8.9% | | | 凯盛新能 (1108 HK) | | | | | | 4 季度亏损扩大，光伏玻璃价格近期强劲反弹有助减亏，维持中性 个股评级 中性 1 年股价表现 财务数据一览 | 年结12月31日 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收入 (百万人民币) | 6,595 | 4,594 | 4,557 | 4,871 | 5,309 | | 同比增长 (%) | 31.1 | -30.3 | -0.8 | 6.9 | 9.0 | | 净利润 (百万人民币) | 395 | (610) | (252) | (44) | 34 | | 每股盈利 (人民币) | 0.61 | (0.94) | (0.39) | (0.07) | 0.05 | ...

交银国际研究 公司更新 | 燃气 收盘价 | | 目标价 | | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 3 月 31 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | 28.20 | 港元 | 20.80↓ | -26.2% | | | 华润燃气 (1193 HK) | | | | | | 2024 年营运及盈利增长均承压，未来盈利结构需时再平衡 财务数据一览 | 年结12月31日 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收入 (百万港元) | 101,272 | 102,676 | 105,325 | 107,837 | 111,287 | | 同比增长 (%) | 7.3 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 3.2 | | 净利润 (百万港元) | 5,224 | 4,088 | 4,381 | 4,692 | 4,997 | | 每股盈利 (港元) | 1.79 | 1.79 | 1.89 | 2.03 | 2.16 | | 同比增长 (%) ...

交银国际研究 公司更新 1 年股价表现 资料来源 : FactSet 3/24 7/24 11/24 3/25 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1193 HK 恒生指数 财务数据一览 | 年结12月31日 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收入 (百万港元) | 101,272 | 102,676 | 105,325 | 107,837 | 111,287 | | 同比增长 (%) | 7.3 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 3.2 | | 净利润 (百万港元) | 5,224 | 4,088 | 4,381 | 4,692 | 4,997 | | 每股盈利 (港元) | 1.79 | 1.79 | 1.89 | 2.03 | 2.16 | | 同比增长 (%) | -12.3 | 0.0 | 5.6 | 7.1 | 6.5 | | 前EPS预测值 (港元) | | | 2.81 | 3.04 | | | 调整幅度 (%) | | | -32. ...

| 教育 目标价 | 收盘价 | | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 3 月 31 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 36.90 港元 | 港元 | 46.00↓ | +24.7% | | | 新东方教育科技 (9901 HK) | | | | | 留学业务增长承压，K12 表现稳健 我们调整 2025 财年 3 季度收入/利润预期，预计非甄选业务收入同比增 22%， 调整后运营利润率同比降约 2.5 个百分点，主要因留学相关业务增速低于预期 及文旅投入。预计 2025 财年非甄选业务收入增速 25%/经营利润率 11.5%，非 学科保持快速增长拉动新业务增速，留学相关业务持续承压。未来公司将增 加青少年留学业务资源配置，随着降本增效举措效果显现及文旅业务减亏， 长期利润率仍有提升空间。对应 2026 年 2 月止 12 个月 20 倍市盈率，调整目 标价至 46 港元/64 美元（EDU US），公司现金流充沛，虽业务需调整，但品 牌力及规模仍领先行业，现价对应 2025/26 日历年市盈率 15/12 倍，估值吸 引，维持买入。 盈利预测变动 | | | ————FY ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Hai Jiaya Medical (6078 HK), with a target price of HKD 18.00, indicating a potential upside of 30.2% from the current closing price of HKD 13.82 [2][3]. Core Insights - The company's performance in 2024 is expected to be under pressure due to changes in the medical insurance payment environment, but long-term growth visibility remains significant. It is anticipated that by 2025, the company will recover with a profit growth rate exceeding 20% as the impact of medical insurance cost control normalizes and new hospital integrations are completed [3][7]. - The report highlights that while the company's revenue for 2024 is projected to grow by 9%, it falls short of expectations, with a notable decline of 11% in the second half of 2024. The oncology segment remains stable, contributing 44% to revenue, while outpatient services show resilience with a 21% increase in annual revenue [7][8]. - The report emphasizes the company's ongoing expansion through new hospitals and acquisitions, which are expected to contribute positively to revenue growth in the future. The company is also exploring new business avenues in response to the changing medical insurance landscape, including internet hospitals and self-paid services related to innovative drugs [7][8]. Financial Forecast Changes - Revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted downward by 16-21% and 21-27%, respectively, reflecting the short-term impact of medical insurance cost control on the company's performance [6][7]. - The updated financial projections for 2025 estimate revenue at RMB 4,987 million, a decrease of 15.8% from previous estimates, with a net profit forecast of RMB 743 million, down 20.6% [6][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral rating for the company with a target price of HKD 5.80, indicating a potential upside of 14.6% from the current price of HKD 5.06 [1][2][9]. Core Insights - The company's performance in Q4 2024 was negatively impacted by the procurement of Domperidone, but there is a noticeable improvement in the neurology segment. The raw material drug business continues to face slight pressure. It is anticipated that the impact of Domperidone procurement will stabilize entering 2025, and new product launches will drive revenue recovery [2][6]. - The current forward P/E ratio is 11 times, with an expected profit CAGR of 11% from 2024 to 2027, suggesting that the valuation is reasonable with limited upside potential [2][6]. - The company is expected to achieve positive revenue growth in 2025, driven by stable inventory levels of Domperidone, the rapid market penetration of new products, and the inclusion of certain drugs in medical insurance [6][11]. Financial Forecast Changes - Revenue for 2025 is projected at RMB 29,600 million, a decrease of 1.0% from previous forecasts. The gross profit is expected to be RMB 20,868 million, down 3.8% from prior estimates. The net profit forecast for 2025 is RMB 4,754 million, reflecting a 4.4% reduction [5][11]. - The gross margin is expected to be 70.5% for 2025, down from 72.6% previously, indicating a slight decline in profitability [5][11]. Performance Metrics - The company’s stock price has shown a year-to-date increase of 5.86%, with a 52-week high of HKD 7.12 and a low of HKD 4.34 [5][11]. - The average daily trading volume is reported at 214.03 million shares, with a market capitalization of approximately HKD 58,227.19 million [5][11]. Pipeline and Product Development - The company is advancing its pipeline with seven new products expected to launch in 2025, including significant drugs that are anticipated to gain regulatory approval in the U.S. [6][11]. - The most notable pipeline product, EGFR ADC, is undergoing simultaneous registration studies in China and the U.S., indicating a strong commitment to expanding its product offerings [6][11].

交银国际研究 财务模型更新 | 教育 目标价 | 收盘价 | | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 3 月 31 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 36.90 港元 | 港元 | 46.00↓ | +24.7% | | | 新东方教育科技 (9901 HK) | | | | | 留学业务增长承压，K12 表现稳健 我们调整 2025 财年 3 季度收入/利润预期，预计非甄选业务收入同比增 22%， 调整后运营利润率同比降约 2.5 个百分点，主要因留学相关业务增速低于预期 及文旅投入。预计 2025 财年非甄选业务收入增速 25%/经营利润率 11.5%，非 学科保持快速增长拉动新业务增速，留学相关业务持续承压。未来公司将增 加青少年留学业务资源配置，随着降本增效举措效果显现及文旅业务减亏， 长期利润率仍有提升空间。对应 2026 年 2 月止 12 个月 20 倍市盈率，调整目 标价至 46 港元/64 美元（EDU US），公司现金流充沛，虽业务需调整，但品 牌力及规模仍领先行业，现价对应 2025/26 日历年市盈率 15/12 倍，估值吸 引，维持买入。 盈利预测变 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral rating for the company with a target price of HKD 5.80, indicating a potential upside of 14.6% from the current price of HKD 5.06 [1][2][9]. Core Insights - The company's performance in Q4 2024 was negatively impacted by the procurement of Domperidone, but there is a noticeable improvement in the neurology segment. The raw material drug business continues to face slight pressure. It is anticipated that the impact of Domperidone procurement will stabilize entering 2025, with new product launches expected to drive revenue growth [2][6]. - The current forward P/E ratio is 11 times, with an estimated profit CAGR of 11% from 2024 to 2027, suggesting that the valuation is reasonable with limited upside potential [2][6]. - The company is expected to launch seven new products or indications in 2025, including significant approvals in the U.S. for certain drugs, which will help offset losses from procurement [6][7]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025 are set at RMB 29.6 billion, a slight decrease of 1.0% from previous estimates. The gross profit is forecasted at RMB 20.87 billion, reflecting a 3.8% decline [5][11]. - The net profit for 2025 is estimated at RMB 4.75 billion, down 4.4% from prior forecasts, with a net profit margin of 16.1% [5][11]. - The company anticipates a recovery in revenue for 2025, driven by stabilized inventory levels and the rapid market penetration of new products [6][11]. Stock Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date change of +5.86%, with a 52-week high of HKD 7.12 and a low of HKD 4.34 [5][11]. - The average daily trading volume is reported at 214.03 million shares, indicating active trading interest [5][11]. Valuation Metrics - The DCF valuation model estimates the equity value at approximately RMB 60.89 billion, translating to a per-share value of HKD 5.80 [7][11]. - The company is currently trading at a P/E ratio of 11 times for 2025, with a PEG ratio of 1.0, suggesting that the stock is fairly valued [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 18.00, indicating a potential upside of 30.2% from the current price of HKD 13.82 [2][3]. Core Insights - The company's performance in 2024 is expected to be under pressure due to changes in the medical insurance payment environment, but long-term growth visibility remains significant. It is anticipated that by 2025, the company will recover with a profit growth rate exceeding 20% as the impact of cost control normalizes and new hospital integrations are completed [3][7]. - The report highlights that despite a projected revenue growth of 9% for 2024, the second half of the year may see an 11% decline in revenue due to pressures from DRG/DIP nationwide promotion and slow reimbursement in certain regions. However, the company has shown resilience in outpatient services, with a 21% increase in annual revenue [7][8]. Financial Forecast Changes - Revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted downwards by 16-21% and 21-27% respectively. The new revenue forecast for 2025 is set at RMB 4,987 million, down from RMB 5,922 million, while the net profit forecast is reduced to RMB 743 million from RMB 936 million [6][7]. - The report provides detailed financial projections, including a projected revenue of RMB 5,527 million for 2026 and RMB 6,291 million for 2027, with corresponding net profits of RMB 853 million and RMB 1,033 million [13]. Business Growth Drivers - New hospital openings and expansions are expected to provide growth momentum. The company has completed the acceptance and opening of a tertiary hospital in Dezhou, with additional hospitals in Wuxi and Changshu expected to open by the end of this year and next year respectively [7][8]. - The company is exploring new business avenues in response to the changing medical insurance payment environment, including internet hospitals and self-funded services related to innovative drugs, which are anticipated to have long-term growth potential [7][8].

交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 3 月 31 日 今日焦点 | 移卡 | | 9923 HK | | --- | --- | --- | | 支付业务边际改善，关注增值服务及海外拓展 | | 评级: 中性 | | 收盘价: 港元 8.36 | 目标价: 港元 9.60↓ | 潜在涨幅: +14.8% | | 谷馨瑜, CPA | connie.gu@bocomgroup.com | | 基于 2025 年 12 倍市盈率，调整目标价至 9.6 港元，维持中性评级。支 付业务边际改善，但全年表现仍有不确定性。关注海外业务拓展，以及 AI 赋能下高利润率的增值服务收入及利润增长。 2024 下半年业绩回顾：移卡 2024 下半年收入 15 亿元（人民币，下同） ，同比降 20% ，主要受支付交易规模下降影响（同比-20%），经调整 EBITDA 同比降 17%至 2.2 亿元，但环比增 35%，主要因支付业务毛利率 优化。 支付业务边际改善，关注增值服务及海外拓展：我们预计 2025 年支付 GPV/收入为 2.45 万亿元/29.6 亿元，同比增 5%/10%，对应支付费率提升 0.6 个基点。公司强化 ...