尊敬的各位投资人尊敬的海通客户大家晚上好那欢迎大家按时步入我们这个每周的AI家财链的每周谈啊然后上周呢其实发生了蛮多事情那不管是美国大选的落地还是中芯国际包括华峰的业绩的一个公布还有那个 传言就是说台积电一些审查那我们一会在会议中呢都做一个详细的一个更新然后也各个板块我们也会树立一些投资的一些方向那今天呢那我先从电子这边我这边开始张晓飞我这边开始首先说一下那个中芯国际的一个业绩包括华虹整体的一个看下来呢整个三季度的业绩是不错那这里面的话各有各的原因 一方面的话像中芯国际它主要是受益于12英寸的一些客户的一些地缘政治之前的一些影响那可能下单会比较多尤其是对12寸的一些拉货拉的比较多所以整个3Q的一个价格还是不错的包括出货量那华红这边的话应该属于符合预期从直营来看的话从四季度可能有一个比较明显的一个特征就是所谓的一个量升价跌 大家应该也都有留意到这两家公司的指引上整体环比变化不大主要是靠量上升了一些但是价格有一些回落 这个其实也是我们前期一直说的国内在整个成熟制程上可能供给端持续的一个产能释放形成的一些压制我们认为这个事情可能后面会持续的形成一个相关的反应包括赵小军博士在业绩会的时候也有提到其实对明年的展望抛除A ...

感谢大家来参加我们的每周的这个周关联的会议啊就是观点发出来之后呢很多这个领导和朋友都在问是不是明确看空了啊我觉得倒不至于啊我们只是在讨论整个市场过去一段时间的这个 运行的机制啊然后提出一些就是可能性啊以及呢就是寻找这里面的逻辑的一个点呃对市场的本身我们还是偏乐观的一个状态但可能没有市场其他的团队看的那么的积极或者是普遍的投资者默认牛市来的那么积极啊我们一直是在这样的一个视角去看啊第一个呢我们先看一下市场的状态就是我们看一下市场这个 在过去一个周其实表现挺活跃的特别是在特朗普的问题落地之后在整个这一个周我们看到这几个特点其实就大家说的游资的风格对吧比较明显当然阶段性还出现了机构的牛市记忆的风格我们如果把它拆开来看它呈现几个特征第一个就是涨跌幅与市值大小呈现明显的负相关性比如说大家都在买小市值然后第二个公募基金 无论是价值还是高经济成长风格,其实都不太行。 就是说做成长的可能是买高景气的对不太行对吧经营里面的还有一些呢做低估值的这个风格因子也不太行所以他导致的结果呢第一个呢就是说市场的活跃度融资余额啊已经又攀到啊整个的历史的高点了如果融融资买额的入的规模的占比也很高了同时呢主动偏股基金在这一轮反弹中其实从十月份开 ...

Summary of Wuliangye Yibin (000858.SZ) Investor Meeting Company Overview - **Company**: Wuliangye Yibin (000858.SZ) - **Industry**: High-end spirits Key Points and Arguments 1. Focus on Sustainable Development - The company emphasizes high-quality sustainable development, expecting demand for high-end spirits to be supported by income growth and increased residential demand, as evidenced by strong retail demand during the Lunar New Year season and improving retail sales in banquets this year [3][4][5] 2. Cautious Shipment Pace - Management remains cautious about the shipment pace for Q4 2024 and H1 2025 due to soft consumption momentum and pending policy stimulus, prioritizing sustainable development and channel profitability over fixed growth rates [4][5] 3. Product Strategy - The company will focus on wholesale prices and channel health for its flagship product, Common Wuliangye, and has implemented effective rebate strategies for 1618, driving strong retail sales momentum [5][6] - There is an expectation for increased regional penetration for 1618 and contributions from the Classic Series, which was relaunched in July 2024 [5] 4. Channel and Pricing Management - The company has established dedicated teams to address pricing disruptions from online platforms and has implemented strategic shipment pacing and market inspections to support wholesale price rebounds [6][7] - Digital tools are being leveraged to monitor and control channel inventory, with a reasonable channel inventory level set at 7-8% of total annual distributor contracted quota [8] 5. Financial Resilience and Shareholder Returns - Management assures a guaranteed dividend of over RMB 20 billion with a payout ratio exceeding 70%, supported by cash reserves of over RMB 100 billion at the end of Q3 2024 [9] 6. Valuation and Risks - The 12-month price target is set at RMB 177, based on a target P/E of 19.5x for 2025E, with key downside risks including potential consumption tax hikes, competition from Moutai-flavor brands, and intensifying competition in the high-end spirits market [10][11] 7. Market Position and Growth Expectations - Despite cautious management, the company expects to outgrow the industry, with highlights including maintaining pricing levels for flagship products and successful market share gains in banquet markets [4][5] Additional Important Information - The company is observing an accelerating consolidation trend in the industry, which benefits market leaders [3] - The gross profit margin (GPM) expansion in Q3 2024 was primarily driven by the growth of Wuliang Spring, which has a relatively higher GPM [9] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the investor meeting, highlighting Wuliangye Yibin's strategic focus, market dynamics, and financial outlook.

7 November 2024 | 3:35PM HKT Asia Views: Trump - Season Two Preview 1. Major media outlets have declared Donald Trump the winner of the US presidential election. Republicans have also won the Senate, though it could take several days or more to sort out the final composition of the House of Representatives (prediction markets suggest a "red sweep" i.e. unified Republican government is likely, but this is not certain). This portends significant policy change in areas such as tariffs and domestic regulation. ...

Summary of the Conference Call on Global Metals & Mining Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **Global Metals & Mining** industry, specifically the **steel market** in China. Key Points 1. **Record Steel Net Exports**: In October 2024, China achieved an all-time high in steel net exports, reaching **10.6 million tonnes**, which is a **40% year-over-year increase**. The total net exports for the first ten months of 2024 have already surpassed the entire fiscal year 2023 total, amounting to **86.3 million tonnes** [1][2][4]. 2. **Annual Projections**: If the current rate of net exports continues, the total for fiscal year 2024 could exceed **100 million tonnes**, representing a **24% year-over-year increase** compared to fiscal year 2023 [1][4]. 3. **Price Dynamics**: A **500 RMB/tonne** increase in Chinese steel prices from mid-September to early October has narrowed price differentials with global markets. However, the impact on export volumes typically lags by **2-3 months** [1][3]. 4. **Historical Context**: Steel net exports peaked at **100 million tonnes** in 2015, dropped to **52 million tonnes** in 2021, and rebounded to **83 million tonnes** in 2023. The current levels are still **18% below** the peak in 2015 [4][5]. 5. **Global Production Impact**: The increase in Chinese steel exports is expected to reduce the production capacity for steel outside of China by more than **3%** in 2024, indicating a significant influence on global steel production dynamics [5]. Additional Insights - **Long-term Trends**: The average monthly net export over the past five years has been around **4.7 million tonnes**, highlighting the recent surge as a notable deviation from historical norms [3]. - **Market Conditions**: The increase in price differentials during July to early October has incentivized exports, suggesting that market conditions are conducive to continued high export levels in the near term [3]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the current state and future outlook of the steel market in China, emphasizing the significant increase in net exports and its implications for global steel production.

Action | 07 Nov 2024 02:29:06 ET │ 10 pages CATL (300750.SZ) Expiring Upside 30-Day Catalyst Watch View original report on this Catalyst Watch This Upside Catalyst Watch call, added on 7-Oct-2024, has expired effective immediately and should no longer be relied upon. | --- | |-------------------------| | | | Buy Price (06 Nov 2024 | | 15:00:00) | | Target price | | Expected share price | | return | | Expected dividend yield | | Expected total return | | Market Cap | Rmb256.500 Rmb362.000 41.1% 1.4% 42.5% Rm ...

07 Nov 2024 03:12:32 ET │ 8 pages Flash | China Materials 2024 On-ground Demand Monitor Series #129– Funding Availability Rate Data Tracker | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------| | | | | CITI'S TAKE In this series of notes, we aim to track and analyze h ...

06 Nov 2024 14:48:58 ET │ 11 pages China Internet What's New From 2024 Citi China Conference: Merchant Insights On Cross-border Ecommerce CITI'S TAKE On Nov 5, we hosted a large track at Citi China Conference in Shenzhen with industry expert Mr. Jiale Wang to discuss latest update on crossborder demand and development of Temu across different regions. Key highlights include: 1) operational performance of expert's company, Acquco ; 2) Temu's regional performance; 3) semi-managed model update; and 4) inventor ...

Good afternoon. My colleagues and I remain squarely focused on achieving our dual mandate goals of maximum employment and stable prices for the benefit of the American people. The economy is strong overall and has made significant progress toward our goals over the past two years. The labor market has cooled from its formerly overheated state and remains solid. Inflation has eased substantially from a peak of 7% to 2.1% as of September. We are committed to maintaining our economy's strength by supporting ma ...

在政府介入之下整个行业的排产会有一个什么样的变动第二个问题可能是涉及到分工匪济的问题第一个问题首先这个事情是在十月底开始发酵然后行业协会以及背后的可能某些政府的高管人员站台的情况下那么以前其实协会端是没有太强的这种速度下游的这些企业的能力 但这次的话其实相当在这个这个前提之下呢这个不料有一定的这个可能去下降但现在至少我知道的情况是会是开了但是呢没有非常强势的东西所以从这个角度来讲呢我认为他这种减产无论是行业的老大还是后面的两三二三名甚至某些新疆刚开的比如像军诺奇亚这样一些开满的工厂他们的这样一个减产的计划都应该会比大家预想的 没有那么快,因为它强制性没有那么高吧,所以这是一个。然后第二个问题呢,说这个分工水期的问题,据我了解,本身主要是找这个四川和云南两个地方。四川的话,基本上十月份还是执行之前的分水期的战后。 1月份就是这个月开始它会执行枯水期而且它是一个阶段性的枯水所以11到12月份价格也是会往上涨比如说可能从三毛多涨到四毛出头五毛钱再从五毛钱涨到五毛六五毛七这样一个价格所以这样一个状态会导致即使不考虑刚刚说的那个情况吧整个行业的这个就是区南部的那个检查 它一定会是阶段性的去减的,十月减的部分,十二月减的 ...