特朗普归来在即，宏观关注什么？20250112 摘要 Q&A 特朗普上台后，他的政策不确定性对全球宏观环境会带来哪些变数？ 特朗普上台后的政策不确定性主要体现在其频繁的领土威胁言论和能源价格上 行。近期他对加拿大、格陵兰岛、巴拿马发出领土威胁，甚至可能动用武力，这 种出格言论增加了地缘政治风险。此外，美国非农失业率超预期，对通胀形成压 力，而特朗普的政策具有较强的通胀属性。这两股力量碰撞将对全球宏观环境带 来显著变数。 特朗普新政的核心内容有哪些？ 特朗普新政的核心内容主要集中在财税方面，包括债务上限、2025 财年的预算 以及减税方案。首先，当前美国债务上限处于到期状态，财政部手头现金耗尽时 间点大概在年中附近，因此特朗普急需在上半年解决这一问题。其次，2025 财 • 特朗普政府政策不确定性导致地缘政治风险上升，尤其体现在其频繁的领 土威胁言论和能源价格上行，这将对全球宏观经济环境带来显著变数。 • 特朗普新政的核心在于财税政策调整，包括债务上限、2025 财年预算和 减税方案，但其推进面临国会共和党控制力度有限的挑战。 • 美国内政政策优先级集中在非法移民和能源政策，但受限于经费和国内政 治因素，短期内 ...

铜-从预期走向现实，迎"通胀"立地开花 20250112 摘要 Q&A 如何理解去年流动性推升行情以及今年的市场节奏？ 去年初很多人不认可流动性推升行情，但复盘下来确实如此。今年上半年预计宏 观边际弱化，以流动性和宏观情绪扰动为主，下半年逐渐进入补库周期带来的中 美伦敦共振商品属性定价阶段。我基本认同这一观点，上半年主要观察中美各自 动作及宏观不确定性压力，下半年政策落地后需求增加，将推动价格重心向上。 元，但这只是少数观点。总体而言，不太悲观的理由主要包括国内刺激政策持续 加码，以及再通胀逻辑得到资金资本类投资者认可。然而，由于美元可能走强， 美联储降息空间有限，加之全球政治生态环境的不确定性，这些因素可能限制涨 幅。因此，我们认为今年整体上是一个大的区间震荡格局。 对于交易节奏和市场走势有何看法？ 交易节奏上，我们认为应是前低后高。上半年由于特朗普政策等因素，市场存在 一些担忧，因此低点可能出现在上半年。而下半年随着基本面需求增加，以及国 内外宏观面逐步共振，价格重心有望提升。从中长期来看，大多数机构仍然看好 未来走势，只是在具体节奏和上涨速度上存在分歧。我们相对谨慎，因为尽管未 来几年矿供应短缺严重，但 ...

大宗商品产业链-以旧换新加力扩围，大宗行业机会几何 20250112 摘要 Q&A • 近期油价上涨受多头交易商炒作及地缘政治等因素影响，短期波动较大， 中长期需关注特朗普政策变化。影子船队事件影响成品油产业链，利好大 型炼厂。 • 石化行业投资策略为"顺周期为矛，红利为盾"。推荐高股息标的三桶油、 新奥股份，以及顺周期标的同坤、新凤鸣、恒力、荣盛等。 • 建筑板块开年表现弱于大盘，短期回调趋势明显，但长期向好，受益于积 极财政政策及地方债务置换政策。 • 建筑行业投资建议关注破净央企（中国能建、中国电建等）、低估值地方 国企及高股息标的中材国际等。 • 2025 年初水泥行业淡季价格走弱但仍保持增长，受益于专项债及财政支 出增加；玻璃行业震荡，一季度业绩预计不会显著改善。 • 2024 年建材行业水泥表现较好，玻璃行业需待二季度改善。高股息标的 推荐塔牌水泥、信义玻璃、伟星新材等。 • 民航和航运板块 2024 年受消费不景气影响，基本面疲软，但集装箱运输 龙头公司值得关注；有色金属板块处于修复初期，建议关注紫金矿业、洛 阳钼业等。 在当前市场环境下，石化行业有哪些值得关注的投资标的？ 上游开采方面，我们推 ...

短期调整不改债市方向——海通固收每周谈 20250112 这段时间内，转债相对于正股跑出了超额收益，两者价差达到了 10 个百分点。 当前市场环境下，应如何选择投资策略？ 我们认为，自去年 12 月以来的市场下跌，为固收加投资者提供了一个很好的阶 段性入市机会。历史数据显示，当转债相对强势达到极端位置时，如 2019 年 2 月、2019 年 8 月、2021 年 1 月至 2 月、2022 年 5 月至 7 月以及去年 2 月至 4 月， 这些时间点都出现了明显上涨。因此，可以用转债和正股收益率差作为择时指标。 当正股阶段性大幅下跌时，应注意未来可能会有一个较为客观的上涨。因此，在 春节前后应积极关注转债机会。如果能做正股更好，因为其弹性更大；如果不能， 则可以将偏低风险策略调整为偏高风险或进攻策略。 从中长期来看，对股票和政策效果有何看法？ 从中长期来看，我们认为股票回报主要来源于两个方面：情绪波动占 70%至 80%， 基本面回升占 20%至 30%。目前很多政策效果在微观层面不如宏观研究预期，因 此需要观察政策未来如何调整。从流动性角度看，央行近期态度更加明朗，不再 买入国债，并提出汇率风险需重视。因 ...

四季度的话整体大概流入了五千亿左右而在整个一月份过去的三周那基本都处于一个净流出状态其中这个第一周和第三周大概周均流出了大概150亿元这个中间那一周流出的额度比较大大概是370亿元左右 这电话会议仅服务于华创证券研究所客户不构成投资建议相关人员应自主作出投资决策并自行承担投资风险华创证券不应使用本次内容所导致的任何损失承担任何责任专家发言内容仅代表专家个人观点不代表本公司观点 本次会议内容不得涉及国家保密信息、内幕信息、未公开重大信息、商业秘密、个人隐私不得涉及可能引发不当炒作或股价异常波动的敏感信息不得涉及影响社会或资本市场稳定的言论未经华创证券事先书面许可 任何机构或个人不得以任何形式复制、刊载、转载、转发、引用本次会议内容否则由此造成的一切后果及法律责任由该机构或个人承担本公司保留追究其法律责任的权利投资需谨慎 大家好,我是姚沛。我们这周的峰会呢,主要先讨论一下关于时空,特别上是市场中关键的一些资金的成本线测算,包括不幸于中长线的ETF,上市公司的恢复贷款,这个北上资金,以及包括两龙资金。那么之后会对政策做一个剧章讨论,我们还是先说本市的这个底部的一个测算吧。 在此前的话创新周报里面也给大家汇报过就是量 ...

V i e w p o i n t | 10 Jan 2025 05:15:28 ET │ 11 pages Taiwan Hardware & Storage Dec-24 NB Shipments Tracked Slightly Higher; 1Q25E Set to See Seasonal Decline CITI'S TAKE NB shipments, as reported by ODMs, for Dec-24 were +8% m-o-m/+12% y-o-y. The number beat our forecast by c.4%, while overall 4Q24 shipments of 31.6mn units (-7% q-o-q/+5% y-o-y) were c.1.0% higher than our forecast. Most of the ODMs are yet to release their official 1Q25E guide; however, considering a lowered comp base since 2H24, 1Q25E m ...

Summary of Sunny Optical (2382.HK) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Sunny Optical Technology Group Co., Ltd. (2382.HK) - **Industry**: Optical components and modules, including handset lenses, vehicle lenses, and camera modules Key Points and Arguments Shipment Performance - **Handset Lens**: - December shipment decreased by 6% month-over-month (MoM) and 2% year-over-year (YoY) to 105 million units - Total 2024 shipment forecast at 1.3 billion units, reflecting a 13% YoY increase, consistent with previous estimates [1][7] - **Camera Modules**: - December shipment increased by 43% MoM and 13% YoY, attributed to low base from last year and year-end delivery requests - Total 2024 shipment forecast at 534 million units, a 6% YoY decline, in line with previous estimates [1][8] - **Vehicle Lens**: - December shipment decreased by 15% MoM but increased by 35% YoY to 6 million units, supported by new projects from clients - Total 2024 shipment forecast at 102 million units, reflecting a 13% YoY increase, slightly below previous estimates [1][7] Financial Performance - **Revenue Estimates**: - 2024 revenue estimate revised to RMB 38.071 billion, unchanged from previous estimates - 2025 revenue estimate revised to RMB 45.841 billion, also unchanged [9] - **Earnings Estimates**: - 2024 net income estimate revised to RMB 2.386 billion, reflecting no change from previous estimates - 2025 net income estimate remains at RMB 2.969 billion [9] Margins and Valuation - **Margins**: - Gross margin for 2024 estimated at 17.4%, with operating margin at 5.8% - Margins expected to improve slightly in subsequent years [9][10] - **Valuation**: - Target price maintained at HK$70.4, based on a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 24.2x for 2025, consistent with historical averages - Current share price at HK$62.70, indicating a potential upside of 12.3% [12][14] Risks - **Competitive Landscape**: - Potential for increased competition in the handset lens market - Variability in shipment growth for camera modules and market share gains [13] - **Currency Fluctuations**: - Risks associated with RMB appreciation or depreciation impacting financial performance [13] Additional Important Information - **Market Context**: - The company is facing challenges from competitors such as Largan and Genius, with varying revenue performances noted [1] - **Management Commentary**: - Management remains cautious about the outlook, particularly in the handset lens segment, while expressing optimism about vehicle lens growth due to new projects [1][8] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call regarding Sunny Optical's performance, financial outlook, and market conditions, providing a comprehensive overview for potential investors.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Polysilicon - The polysilicon industry cycle is believed to have hit the bottom, but immediate recovery is not visible. There are both positive and negative events anticipated in 1Q/2Q25 that may provide trading opportunities [2][4] Core Insights - **Negative Outlook**: - Significant impairment losses are expected for polysilicon producers in 4Q24, leading to worse-than-expected earnings for FY24. By the end of 2024, polysilicon inventory levels continued to rise, with prices under pressure at approximately Rmb 40/kg [4][2] - Producers have been reducing production capacity utilization throughout 2024, which may lead to impairment risks for production facilities [4] - **Positive Outlook**: - Polysilicon prices may overshoot in mid-to-end 2Q25 due to declining supplies and decreasing inventory levels. Major producers have reduced capacity utilization to support prices [4] - Expected polysilicon supply in January 2025 is projected at 98,000 tons, while demand is estimated at 101,000 tons, indicating a potential inventory reduction in the coming months [4][6] Company Ratings - **Daqo (DQ US)**: - Rated Overweight (OW) due to cost leadership, strong balance sheet, and attractive valuation at 0.3x FY25 Price-to-Book Value (P/BV) [4][9] - **Tongwei (600438 CH)**: - Rated Underweight (UW) due to high valuation at 1.7x FY25 P/BV [4][9] Additional Insights - The current polysilicon inventory is estimated to be between 300,000 to 400,000 tons, and it takes approximately 2 to 3 months for a polysilicon plant to resume production, indicating a potential time gap for any supply increase [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring inventory levels and production capacity as key indicators for future price movements in the polysilicon market [4][2] Conclusion - The polysilicon industry is at a critical juncture with potential trading opportunities arising from both negative and positive developments. Investors should closely watch the earnings reports and inventory levels as indicators of market direction [2][4]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Fiscal Deficit in China**: The size of China's fiscal deficit is expected to increase significantly in 2025, as stated by Vice Minister of Finance Mr. Liao Min. The ministry plans to use financial tools to expand domestic consumption and enhance the consumer goods trade-in program this year [5][5][5]. Real Estate Market - **Guangzhou Home Transactions**: Existing home transactions in Guangzhou reached their highest level in the past three years, totaling 96,016 homes in 2024, which is a 10.4% year-over-year increase. This surge is attributed to a series of stimulus measures and loosened policies for the real estate sector [5][5][5]. Automotive Industry - **Tesla Model Y Launch**: Tesla officially launched a revamped version of the Model Y in China, priced from RMB 263.5k, which is 5.4% more expensive than the previous version [5][5][5]. - **US Regulations on Chinese Vehicle Software**: The Biden administration is expected to finalize rules that will curb access to China's vehicle software and hardware, citing national security concerns [5][5][5]. Technology Sector Developments - **Pinduoduo Merchant Rights Committee**: Pinduoduo has established a committee to protect merchant rights on its platform, aiming to address merchant needs and enhance service mechanisms [8][8][8]. - **XPeng's New SUV Model**: XPeng has revealed images of its upcoming mid-sized SUV model G7, which is expected to be competitively priced under RMB 250k [8][8][8]. - **Tencent's Share Sales**: Tencent sold 62.1 million shares of Weimob and also divested shares in Ubtech Robotics, while maintaining a mutually beneficial relationship with Weimob [8][8][8]. Other Notable News - **Shein's London Listing Plans**: Shein is reportedly aiming to list in London in the first half of 2025, with potential regulatory approvals being discussed during a visit by the UK Finance Minister [8][8][8]. - **Chery and NIO Partnership**: Chery's sub-brand Exeed plans to release its first battery swap-compatible model in partnership with NIO in Q3 [8][8][8]. - **Bilibili's Lunar New Year Gala Broadcast**: Bilibili will broadcast the annual CCTV Lunar New Year Gala for the first time in 2025 [8][8][8]. Conclusion The conference call highlighted significant developments in China's fiscal policy, real estate market, automotive industry, and technology sector, indicating a dynamic landscape with both opportunities and challenges for investors.

ab 10 January 2025 Powered by YES UBS Evidence Lab Global Research China 360 Household habits - new survey insights Smaller cities more upbeat In most categories, the share of consumers spending more in the past six months has been stronger in tier-3 cities than tier-1/2. In some segments, the trends clearly diverge: while the data suggest a rebound in the share of tier-3 consumers spending more on baijiu, this figure barely budged in higher-tier cities. The same pattern is evident in beer and soft drinks, ...