10 January 2025 | 2:45PM JST Japan Economics Analyst Impact of US-China Tariffs: Can Japan Benefit? (Ota) Tomohiro Ota +81(3)4587-9984 | tomohiro.ota@gs.com Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. Akira Otani +81(3)4587-9960 | akira.otani@gs.com Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. Yuriko Tanaka +81(3)4587-9964 | yuriko.tanaka@gs.com Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. Andrew Tilton +852-2978-1802 | andrew.tilton@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their inves ...

Key Points **Industry Overview** * **Semiconductor Sector Underperformed in 2024**: The Semiconductor sector underperformed the broader market in 2024, driven by moderation in AI stocks and underperformance in Semiconductor Capital Equipment and Analog/MCU. * **Outlook for 2025**: Goldman Sachs expects the Semiconductor and Semiconductor Capital Equipment sectors to outperform the broader market in 2025, driven by sustained outperformance in AI-enablers and a cyclical recovery in areas like Analog Semiconductors, MCUs, and Wafer Fab Equipment. * **Macroeconomic Backdrop**: The firm expects a favorable macroeconomic backdrop in 2025, with global GDP growth forecasted at 2.7%, supporting a cyclical recovery. **Sub-Sector Views** * **Compute/Networking**: AI-enablers like CRDO, NVDA, AVGO, MRVL, and ARM significantly outperformed in 2024. The firm expects demand for Compute and Networking to grow further in 2025/26 as model sizes and complexity evolve. * **Accelerated Computing**: The firm expects high demand for Accelerated Computing in 2025, driven by the ramp of next-generation accelerators and the low base. * **Networking**: Networking companies are expected to benefit from increased data rates and higher attach rates of Networking devices. * **Server CPU**: The general server market is expected to grow modestly in 2025, with AMD gaining share in server CPUs and Arm-based CPUs growing their presence in the Cloud. * **PC CPU**: The firm expects PC CPU shipments to remain soft in the near-term but improve in 2H25 driven by the end of life of Windows 10 and the proliferation of AI PCs. * **Broad-Based Semiconductors**: The firm expects another round of estimate cuts heading into and coming out of 4Q24 earnings season, but believes this will mark the 'last cut' this downturn. * **Automotive Semiconductors**: The firm remains positive on the long-term drivers of through-cycle growth in Automotive semiconductors, including Electrification and ADAS. * **Memory/Storage**: The firm expects industry bits to grow mid-teens (%) yoy in 2025 and pricing to stay relatively soft in the first half with a potential recovery in 2H. * **Semiconductor Capital Equipment**: The firm remains optimistic on the Wafer Fab Equipment market outlook for 2025 and 2026, driven by the transition to N2 at TSMC, continued strength in HBM, and a mild recovery in NAND. * **Semiconductor Materials**: The firm remains optimistic on the sub-sector as a whole and Entegris more specifically over the next 12 months, driven by factors like N2 ramp at TSMC and recovery in traditional end-markets. **Best Positioned Single Stock Ideas** * **NVDA**: The firm reiterates its Buy rating on NVDA, with a 12-month price target of $165 representing 18% potential upside. * **AVGO**: The firm reiterates its Buy rating on AVGO, with a 12-month price target of $255. * **MU**: The firm reiterates its Buy rating on MU, with a 12-month price target of $128. * **LRCX**: The firm maintains its Buy rating on LRCX, with an updated 12-month price target of $85. * **TER**: The firm maintains its Buy rating on TER, with a 12-month price target of $151. * **ENTG**: The firm maintains its Buy rating on ENTG, with an updated 12-month price target of $128. **Downgrades and Upgrades** * **Downgrade AMD to Neutral**: The firm downgrades AMD to Neutral from Buy, with a 12-month price target of $129. * **Upgrade NXPI to Buy**: The firm upgrades NXPI to Buy from Neutral, with an updated 12-month price target of $257. **Key Risks** * **Weaker-than-expected demand**: A weaker-than-expected demand for semiconductors could lead to downside risks for the industry. * **Supply chain disruptions**: Supply chain disruptions could impact production and lead to higher prices. * **Competition**: Intensified competition could impact pricing and margins. * **Regulatory changes**: Regulatory changes could impact the industry and its participants.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report discusses the global economic outlook, focusing on the US, Euro area, and Asia-Pacific regions, highlighting macroeconomic trends and central bank policies [5][10][12]. Core Economic Insights - **US Economic Outlook**: - Anticipation of two Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025, specifically in June and December, with a terminal rate forecast of 3.5-3.75% [5][7]. - December payrolls increased by 256,000, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1% [7]. - Average hourly earnings rose by 0.28% month-over-month, with a year-over-year increase of 3.9% [7]. - **Euro Area Economic Insights**: - Core HICP inflation in December was 2.71% year-over-year, with headline inflation at 2.44% [10]. - Expectations for core inflation to reach target levels by the end of 2025, with headline inflation projected to remain slightly above target throughout 2025 [10]. - **Asia-Pacific Economic Trends**: - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is expected to implement proactive policy easing, including 40 basis points of rate cuts and 100 basis points of reserve requirement ratio cuts in 2025 [12]. - Mixed signals in manufacturing PMIs across the region, with declines in China and India but increases in Japan and parts of Southeast Asia [12]. Employment and Labor Market Dynamics - The UK composite employment PMI fell by 3.3 points to 45.6, indicating a slowdown in hiring [5]. - Job openings in the US increased by 259,000 to 8,098,000 in November, while the layoff rate remained unchanged [7]. Central Bank Policies - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points in January, with further cuts anticipated throughout the year [5]. - The Bank of Japan is projected to raise policy rates by 25 basis points to 0.50% at its January meeting, reflecting a transition out of deflation [12]. Global Growth Forecasts - Goldman Sachs forecasts global GDP growth at 2.7% for 2025, with specific country forecasts including: - US: 2.5% - Euro Area: 0.8% - China: 4.5% - India: 6.3% [13]. Additional Insights - The report highlights the potential impact of US tariffs on global trade, particularly concerning China and Vietnam [12]. - The sensitivity of market reactions to economic data surprises remains high, especially regarding inflation news [7]. Conclusion - The economic landscape is characterized by anticipated rate cuts from major central banks, mixed employment data, and varying growth prospects across regions, with a focus on inflation trends and labor market conditions [5][10][12].

Summary of Conference Call on Yun Aluminum and Shenhuo Co. Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metals sector performed poorly in Q4 2023, ranking third from the bottom among Shenwan's first-level industries, with only a 10% increase, while the industrial metals sub-sector rose by 5% and precious metals fell by 8% [3][4] - Market sentiment shifted towards risk aversion after the New Year, favoring large-cap and dividend stocks, which improved the valuation attractiveness of Yun Aluminum and Shenhuo Co. [3][5] Core Insights - The easing of fiscal policies in China and the U.S. is expected to boost domestic demand, benefiting cyclical metals like aluminum, steel, and copper. Aluminum, due to its domestic pricing and tight supply-demand dynamics, is particularly attractive for investment [3][4] - The projected electrolytic aluminum deficit is 210,000 tons in 2024 and will expand to 930,000 tons by 2025, indicating a tightening supply-demand situation [5] - Both Yun Aluminum and Shenhuo Co. have low alumina self-sufficiency rates, which enhances their cost advantages when alumina prices decline. Their operational efficiency allows them to benefit from profit transfers down the supply chain [3][6] Investment Timing and Strategy - The current timing for purchasing shares of Yun Aluminum and Shenhuo Co. is favorable due to declining alumina prices, which will alleviate cost pressures. February is typically a low season, making it a good time to buy [7] - Institutional investors are already positioning themselves in these core stocks, suggesting that early investment is advisable to avoid missing potential gains [7] Beta and Alpha Factors - The beta factors for the aluminum industry include rising aluminum prices and falling alumina prices. The upward trend in aluminum prices is driven by global supply chain shifts and China's supply-side reforms [8] - Yun Aluminum's alpha factors include strong fundamentals, production expansion, and carbon reduction advantages. The company's debt-to-asset ratio has decreased to 26%, with cash on hand reaching 8.2 billion, a 106% year-on-year increase [8][9] - Shenhuo Co. benefits from three beta factors: rising aluminum prices, stabilizing coal prices, and falling alumina prices. Its dual presence in Xinjiang and Yunnan enhances its competitive edge [9] Market Concerns - Concerns regarding alumina price declines leading to lower electrolytic aluminum prices are deemed unnecessary, as the pricing systems for alumina and electrolytic aluminum are relatively independent [10] - The market has underestimated the value of Shenhuo Co.'s coal segment, which provides stable cash flow and high dividends, ensuring relative stability in coal prices [11] - Yun Aluminum is perceived to face competitive pressures in Yunnan's hydropower sector, but improvements in the competitive landscape and stable wind and solar base construction are expected to enhance profitability [12] Financial Projections - Yun Aluminum's projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 4.5 billion, 6.7 billion, and 7.9 billion, respectively, with significant growth in price-to-earnings ratios [12] - Shenhuo Co. is expected to achieve profits of 4.2 billion, 5.4 billion, and 6.2 billion for the same period, with its valuation still significantly below the industry average [12]

两新政策加力扩围，哪些行业有望受益 20250113 两新两重政策对当前国内宏观经济的影响有哪些？ 两新两重政策对于当前国内宏观经济的影响主要体现在以下几个方面：首先，两 新政策包括推动大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新的政策，涉及制造业和消费品 领域。设备更新主要集中在制造业，如机床、工业母机等长周期设备的更新，而 消费品以旧换新则涵盖家电、汽车等多个品类。这些措施将显著促进相关行业的 发展，带动内需增长。 其次，两重政策聚焦于国家重大战略实施和重点领域安 全能力建设，主要涉及基建项目，如沿江高铁、东北高标准农田建设、双一流高 • 两新两重政策通过 3,000 亿元超长期特别国债及 1 万亿元特别国债，有效 推动大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新，以及国家重大战略实施和重点领 域安全能力建设，对内需增长和经济高质量发展起到显著作用。 • 2024 年 12 月，设备器具购置投资同比增长超过 16%，对整体投资拉动贡 献率超过 60%，汽车提前报废置换需求达到 270 万辆，家电以旧换新增加 5,000 万台以上，显示政策成效显著。 • 即将公布的中国 12 月工业增加值、固定资产投资及贸易数据，以及全年 宏观经济数 ...

国际机构唱多 A 股，顺周期板块表现活跃 20250113 摘要 Q&A 今天市场整体表现如何？有哪些板块表现较为强势？ 今天市场整体走出了修复行情，创业板指和科创板表现相对强势。之前跌幅较大 的低位板块，如地产股和券商，也出现了一些企稳迹象。有色金属中的贵金属和 能源金属在弱势背景下逆周期上涨，特别是贵金属表现强劲。此外，石油石化板 块也因国际油价回到高位而活跃。总体来看，今天盘中表现较强的资产主要集中 在偏周期类、与地产关系紧密的有色金属、钢铁以及石油石化等领域。 当前市场的关键点位有哪些？这些点位对多空双方有何影响？ 目前市场有几个关键点位值得关注，一个是 10 月 8 日以来形成的超大周期中枢 或震荡平台的下边位置，大约在 3,200 多点。近期市场不断靠近中枢震荡低位， 大约在 3,170 点左右。今天盘中几乎接近 3,150 点，最终收盘于 3,160 点左右。 • A 股市场今日出现修复行情，创业板指和科创板表现强势，地产股和券商 板块企稳，部分周期类板块如贵金属、有色金属、石油石化等逆势上涨。 • 市场关键点位在 3,170 点附近，该点位是多空双方博弈的焦点，对市场走 势影响重大。 • 市场 ...

2025 Outlook: Gen-AI Moving up from Infrastructure to the Platform and Application Layer 9 January 2025 | 11:56PM PST Americas Technology: Software Selina Zhang We believe the CY25 playbook is to own high-quality franchises that can deliver modest upside to Street expectations while building solid foundations for Gen-AI, which we believe can support durable seat-based and consumption growth over the next 3-5 years with OpM leverage. We don't place much confidence in the old tech cycle coming back as custome ...

宏观策略周论：2025 年开年的关键变数 20250113 摘要 Q&A 2025 年初全球市场表现如何？有哪些关键因素影响了市场波动？ 2025 年初，全球市场表现出较大的波动。国债收益率创出新低，A 股和港股市场 出现波动，美债利率冲新高，美元也创了新高。这些变化主要受到以下几个关键 因素的影响： • 2025 年初全球市场波动剧烈，受特朗普政策不确定性、债务上限问题、 美联储降息路径预期及美股四季度业绩等因素影响。 • 特朗普政策前瞻包含投资限制、关税措施及对利率通胀的预期，其不确定 性及自相矛盾性导致市场难以预测，需关注具体实施力度。 • 美国经济呈现跷跷板式发展，科技和消费领域强劲，而地产和投资领域受 利率影响较大，特朗普政策实施力度将决定市场预期及经济走向。 • 2025 年美国经济增长主线在于科技和消费能否扩散至地产和投资领域， 利率和通胀控制至关重要，特朗普政策可能对经济复苏路径产生重大影响。 • 特朗普政府的通胀政策直接影响其选情，控制通胀对 2026 年选举至关重 要，美联储可能采取更强硬措施，这将影响未来政策推进。 • 市场对美联储加息降息预期极端波动，但极端预测往往错误，需关注实际 数 ...

宏观：最新政策、市场看法 20250114 摘要 Q&A 近期市场波动较大，特别是股票市场呈现下跌趋势，您如何看待这一现象？ 今年以来，市场波动显著加大，尤其是股票市场总体呈现下跌趋势。相比之下， 债券市场自去年 12 月初的 2.12%水平回落至目前的 1.6%左右。近期与多家机构 交流后发现，大多数基金经理对当前市场持悲观态度，这种心态似乎回到了去年 9 月 24 日之前的状态。特别是昨日 A 股成交量首次降至 1 万亿元以下，这引发 了投资者更多疑问。 • 近期股票市场下跌，债券市场收益率下降，基金经理普遍悲观，市场成交 量萎缩至 1 万亿元以下，反映出市场情绪低迷。 • 当前经济政策处于观察期，经济数据自 12 月份以来回落，PMI、CPI、PPI 等指标偏弱，经济复苏动能不足。 • 特朗普就职和美国经济数据强劲导致美元走强，美债收益率上升，加剧了 市场对中国经济的担忧，并对人民币汇率造成压力。 • 尽管表面上政策处于空窗期，但政府财政政策仍保持积极态势，预计 2025 年财政赤字率至少为 4%，专项债发行规模增加 5,000 亿元，财政扩张规 模可能达 10.3 万亿元。 • 市场对政治局会议和经济 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the two-wheeled vehicle industry in China, focusing on the impact of new national standards (新国标) and the performance of key players like Yadea (雅迪) and Aima (爱玛) [2][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **New National Standards (新国标) Changes**: - The new standards relax the mandatory installation of Beidou positioning devices for civilian vehicles, allowing consumers to choose [2][3]. - The transition period has been extended to 8 months plus an additional 3 months, meaning the old standards will apply until December 1, 2025 [2][3]. - New requirements include a maximum speed of 25 km/h and stricter safety and performance metrics, which may increase production costs and eliminate smaller non-compliant firms, benefiting leading companies like Yadea and Aima [3][4]. 2. **Market Dynamics**: - The two-wheeled vehicle industry is currently in a restocking phase, with Yadea and Aima maintaining low inventory levels and high shipping volumes [5]. - Both companies are expected to continue restocking into 2025, supported by government subsidies for trade-in programs, which will stimulate consumer demand [5]. 3. **3C Certification Impact**: - The new standards will tighten 3C certification processes, leading to increased compliance costs for smaller manufacturers, potentially driving them out of the market [6]. - This will enhance the market position and profitability of leading firms [6]. 4. **Shared Two-Wheeled Vehicle Market**: - Regulatory scrutiny is increasing in the shared two-wheeled vehicle market, which may lead to new rules that could benefit compliant companies like Yadea and Aima [7]. - These companies are expected to re-enter this market segment, providing new growth opportunities [7]. 5. **Channel Expansion Strategies**: - Aima plans to expand its store count from over 31,700 to nearly 40,000, while Yadea has not specified new store openings but will focus on channel management to enhance efficiency [9]. - Both companies are projected to achieve net profits exceeding 2.6 billion yuan in 2024 [9]. Additional Important Insights - **Caocao Vehicle Industry**: - Caocao is a leading player in the golf cart market, benefiting from rising demand in the U.S. despite facing anti-dumping tariffs [10]. - The company is expected to double its export volume by 2025-2026, with significant growth potential in the golf cart segment [11]. - Caocao is also diversifying into other low-speed electric vehicles, which may provide additional revenue streams [12]. - **Profit Growth Outlook**: - Caocao's long-term profit growth is supported by its expansion into low-speed electric vehicles, with a projected net profit corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of about 13 times by 2025 [13]. - Investor sentiment is positive, anticipating that Caocao's channel development and product diversification will ensure stable profit growth [15]. Conclusion - The new national standards and market dynamics present both challenges and opportunities for the two-wheeled vehicle industry in China. Leading companies like Yadea and Aima are well-positioned to capitalize on these changes, while Caocao's expansion into the U.S. market and other vehicle segments indicates strong growth potential.