今天晚上的话我来汇报一下每趟行业2025年这个年度策略啊我们报告标题的话叫增量稳 存量优实际上是在把握的这样一个价值资产增量的话指的是这个利润表主要是利润这块然后存量的话主要是指的这个资产这块啊应该说每趟的话在2025年的话这个利润的话应该还是维持一个比较好的这样一个水平然后这个资产的话实际上是维持一个非常有竞争力的这样一个状态啊这就是关于这个标题之外一个情况 包括的话我们主要是从这个六个维度啊第一呢就是说这个行情复盘啊第二呢就是复盘一下东里面最后一个基本面那第三呢就是复盘一下零九美这块一个基本面第四呢就是说这个2025年展望啊这是重点啊第五呢是这个行业比例成本这块一个研究吧这块也是重点啊那第六方面的话是投资建议还有分析形式啊这块的话也是重点那么重点的话是后面三后面三节那么第一节的话就是说这个行情回顾啊这块的话简单过一下啊那么2024年的话我们看到这个美团板块的话 我们这个报告的话提交的时候是12月13号棉花板块的话这个涨幅是7.5%在31个行业里面的话是位列第21位应该说的话和这个三级度啊这个分割切换的话是有很大关系的啊我们看到这个202028年的话这个棉花的话应该是涨幅的话是31个行业里面的话位列第6位啊 ...

Key Takeaways Industry Overview * **Sector**: Securities IT and Financial Technology (FinTech) * **Growth Drivers**: * **Regulatory Support**: Policies promoting financial technology innovation, risk management, and digital transformation. * **IT Investment**: Continuous growth in IT and technology spending by financial institutions. * **Securities IT**: * **2C (Consumer)**: Companies like Tonghua Shun, Wealth Trend, and Dashen Wisdom targeting individual users. * **2B (Business)**: Companies like Hengsheng Electronics, Jinzheng, and Top Software serving institutional clients. * **Industry Architecture**: * **Securities IT**: * **2C**: Companies like Tonghua Shun, Wealth Trend, and Dashen Wisdom. * **2B**: Companies like Hengsheng Electronics, Jinzheng, and Top Software. * **Securities Technology Service Providers**: Companies like Dongfang Caifu, Guide Zhen, and 9fang Zhitou Holding. * **Bank IT**: * **Front-end**: Channel systems. * **Back-end**: Business support systems and customer resource integration systems. * **Insurance IT**: * **Core Business System**: Supports the entire insurance business. * **Channel System**: Supports distribution channels. * **Management System**: Supports management activities. Key Companies and Products * **Dongfang Caifu**: * **Business Model**: Large-scale traffic, gradual acquisition of licenses, and revenue generation through various business lines. * **Key Products**: Stock trading, fund distribution, and AI products like the Miao Xiang Large Model. * **Performance**: * **Short-term**: Focus on performance elasticity in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025. * **Long-term**: Focus on the profitability of AI products and market expansion. * **Tonghua Shun**: * **Business Model**: * **Short-term**: Revenue from stock trading, fund distribution, and C-end product sales. * **Long-term**: Profitability of AI products and market expansion. * **Performance**: * **Short-term**: High performance elasticity due to market activity. * **Long-term**: Focus on the profitability of AI products and market expansion. * **Guide Zhen**: * **Business Model**: Similar to Dongfang Caifu but with higher-quality traffic. * **Performance**: * **Short-term**: High performance elasticity due to market activity. * **Long-term**: Focus on the profitability of AI products and market expansion. * **9fang Zhitou Holding**: * **Business Model**: Selling securities investment products to individual investors. * **Performance**: * **Short-term**: High performance elasticity due to market activity. * **Long-term**: Focus on the expansion of the policy investment consulting business and the development of AI products. * **Hengsheng Electronics**: * **Business Model**: * **Short-term**: Focus on the profitability of AI products and market expansion. * **Long-term**: Focus on the profitability of AI products and market expansion. * **Jinzheng**: * **Business Model**: * **Short-term**: Focus on the profitability of AI products and market expansion. * **Long-term**: Focus on the profitability of AI products and market expansion. Investment Recommendations * **Short-term**: Focus on companies with high performance elasticity in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, such as Tonghua Shun, Guide Zhen, and 9fang Zhitou Holding. * **Long-term**: Focus on companies with strong profitability and market expansion potential, such as Dongfang Caifu, Hengsheng Electronics, and Jinzheng.

那么微信这种十亿级别客户的APP这个就是这个人与人之间的这个社交的关系那我们说其实就是它是具备着非常大的一个这个就是应用空间的所以这个场景呢首先我们认为选的是非常好的 现在微信小店处于什么样的进度呢 微信小店它的进度大概是24年12月19号微信小店启动了送礼物功能的灰度测试他们刚才说过是24年8月份将视频号小店升级为微信小店那么到12月份12月19号启动了送礼物功能的灰度测试就是说在功能正式在所有人在发布前选择了小规模用户的测试验证这个功能然后修正效果修复潜在问题 那么其实这个事情呢就是很多人就是在想说这个送礼功能怎么还没开放呢他还在内测中可以理解他还在内测中然后这个就是目前只是针对小规模的一个用户就是开放了功能的测试 那么我们现在还无法大规模使用这个东西我们估计它的选择在一个进入一月份以后年货节 元旦 春节 情人节 女生节 重要的节日作为人际关系跟互动的一个高峰时刻这个功能可能就会上线 然后我们说成为送礼物的新入口那么这个是时间上目前的一个时间轴然后我们说什么样的品类适合微信小店 那么第三呢就是这个呃就是强社交的这个属性呢啊使得就是他呃本身具有很好的这个应用场景但是就是这个送礼物这个功能呢和这个呃就是这个这 ...

Key Points Industry or Company Involved - **Municipal bond funds** in the United States Core Views and Arguments - **Net outflows** from municipal bond funds for the third consecutive week, totaling $878 million for the week ending December 25, 2024. - **Outflows driven by open-end funds** (-$1.0 billion), with significant outflows across Investment Grade (-$465 million), High Yield (-$414 million), and Long Duration (Long Term funds lost $747 million). - **ETFs posted modest inflows** of $160 million. - **Duration** was a key factor, with Long Term funds seeing the majority of outflows. - **Credit quality** also played a role, with Investment Grade funds experiencing the largest outflows. - **State-focused funds** saw negative flows, particularly in New York and California. Other Important Content - **YTD inflows** are now tracking slightly lower at +$40.5 billion (+$26.6 billion open-end funds/+$13.9 billion ETFs). - **HY municipal funds** have attracted 13% of their aggregate assets under management (AUM) from the beginning of the year, compared to just 3% for IG fund inflows relative to their AUM at the year's start. - **Market valuations** are calculated as the difference between the change in reported AUM and the week's reported fund flows. - **LSEG Lipper Global Fund Flows** data is used for analysis. References - [15] - [19] - [26] - [27] - [32]

Industry and Company Key Points **1. Information Services Sector**: * The Information Services sector saw an average increase of +1% this week and +11% YTD. * Top movers included MCO (+3%), SPGI (+3%), CSGP (+2%), CLVT (+2%), and FDS (+2%). * Investors had mixed views on credit bureaus, with slightly negative feedback on EFX and TRU and more positive feedback on EXPN. * FactSet consensus estimates for 2025 mortgage revenue and EBITDA margin at EFX and TRU were considered overly elevated. **2. CoStar Group (CSGP, Buy)**: * Homes.com online traffic accelerated in y/y growth over the past three months, surpassing traffic growth at Zillow. * CSGP's residential revenue is expected to increase from $46mn in 2023 to $300mn+ by 2026, representing an 85%+ 3-year CAGR. * CSGP's residential business is expected to drive robust earnings growth and valuation upside, with EBITDA margins expanding from 8% in 2024 to 27% in 2026 and 40% over the medium-term. **3. Bright Horizons Family Solutions (BFAM, Buy)**: * Kastle swipe data shows an ongoing recovery in return-to-office, which is positive for BFAM's child care center occupancy rates. * BFAM's child care center occupancy rates are expected to increase from low-60s in 2024 to ~65% in 2025 and ~70% in 2026. * BFAM's NTM P/E multiple of 27x based on FactSet consensus compares favorably to the 10-year average of 34x. **4. KinderCare (KLC, Buy)**: * Kastle swipe data shows an ongoing recovery in return-to-office, which is positive for KLC's child care center occupancy rates. * KLC's child care center occupancy rates are expected to increase from 69% in 2024 to ~70% in 2025 and ~71% in 2026. * KLC's valuation upside is leveraged to its differentiated focus on community-based centers and targeting of customers across all income demographics. **5. Robert Half (RHI)**: * Investors expressed cautious sentiment on RHI due to risks from AI and the impact on revenue. * There is a high probability that RHI will not achieve FactSet consensus EPS expectations of $4/shr by 2026. **6. Korn Ferry (KFY)**: * Investors expressed positive sentiment on KFY, given its insulation from AI risks with its focus on recruiting for executive roles. * KFY's 8% sell-off in response to F2Q earnings earlier this month presents an attractive buying opportunity. **7. Staffing Industry**: * The Staffing industry saw an average increase of +1% this week and +13% YTD. * Top movers included NATL (+10%), BV (+3%), KFY (+3%), BFAM (+2%), and VSTS (-4%). * Staffing revenue demonstrated signs of stability, including positive growth in exec search and narrowing y/y declines in RPO and professional search & interim. **8. Business Services**: * The Business Services sector saw an average increase of +1% this week and +13% YTD. * Top movers included NATL (+10%), BV (+3%), KFY (+3%), BFAM (+2%), and VSTS (-4%). * Investors had negative feedback on RHI and positive feedback on KFY. **9. Diversified Business Services**: * The Diversified Business Services sector saw an average increase of +1% this week and +13% YTD. * Top movers included NATL (+10%), BV (+3%), KFY (+3%), BFAM (+2%), and VSTS (-4%). * Investors had negative feedback on RHI and positive feedback on KFY. **10. Macro Developments**: * The Consumer Confidence Index decreased to 104.7 in December from 112.8 in November. * Initial jobless claims decreased to 219k for the week ending 12/21 from 220k the prior week. * The tightening labor market is incrementally positive for temp staffers MAN and RHI.

Company and Industry Overview * **Company**: NIO Inc. (NIO/9866.HK) * **Industry**: Electric Vehicle (EV) and New Energy Vehicle (NEV) industry in China * **Research Firm**: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Key Points and Arguments * **New Product Cycle**: NIO is entering a new product cycle in 2025E-26E with the launch of two new Onvo models and facelift versions of existing NIO models. * **Volume Targets**: Management is confident of achieving 30k units of delivery in Dec 2024, with a target of 100% yoy volume growth in 2025E driven by Onvo and NIO facelift models. * **Operational Efficiency**: The company aims to improve operational efficiency and ensure smooth production and delivery of upcoming new models, learning from the lower-than-expected sales performance of NT2.0 products. * **Market Competition**: Management believes the Chinese passenger vehicle industry will remain fragmented, especially in the premium segment, due to diverse consumer needs and a large market size. * **Battery Swapping Stations**: NIO plans to expand its battery swapping network, aiming to have 3,000 stations by end-2024, up from 2,800 as of Dec 16, 2024. * **Financial Performance**: Management expects sequentially improving vehicle gross margin in 4Q24, with close to 15% for the Nio brand and approx. 5% for the Onvo brand. * **Rating**: Goldman Sachs has a Sell rating on NIO with a 12m DCF-based (WACC 11.8%, TGR 3.5%) target price of US$3.9/HK$30 on the ADR/H share. Additional Important Content * **Onvo Brand**: The Onvo brand will launch a 6/7-seat SUV benchmarking Li Auto L8 in 2H25E, followed by a 5-seat SUV benchmarking Li Auto L7. * **Firefly Brand**: The Firefly brand, focused on the small-size vehicle market, started presales of the firefly model at Rmb148.8k on Dec 21, 2024. * **ADAS**: NIO's ADAS team announced a series of organizational adjustment plans, with Mr. Shaoqing Ren leading the large model department to accelerate the delivery pace of the "end-to-end" model. * **M&A Rank**: NIO has a M&A rank of 3, indicating a low probability (0%-15%) of being acquired. * **Investment Thesis**: Goldman Sachs expects lukewarm order momentum, slow production ramp-up, and intensifying price competition to be downside catalysts for NIO's stock price.

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research 26 December 2024 See page 4 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures. J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Important Disclosures Th ...

Summary of the Conference Call Company and Industry - The report focuses on **Asia Vital Components (AVC)**, a company involved in the thermal solutions industry, particularly in air and liquid cooling products. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Revised Estimates for 1Q25**: The estimates for 1Q25 have been revised downwards due to delays in the shipment schedule of GB200 components, predicting a **5% quarter-over-quarter decline** compared to the Bloomberg consensus of **+2%** [2][10] 2. **Long-term Outlook**: Despite the near-term challenges, the outlook for **2H25 and 2026** remains positive, with estimates largely unchanged at this moment, pending further monitoring of potential delays in GB200 shipments [2][10] 3. **Earnings Growth Potential**: The price target for December 2025 is set at **NT$888**, based on a **23x 2026E P/E**, reflecting stronger earnings growth potential and design wins in both air and liquid cooling projects [7][10] 4. **Financial Performance**: - **2023A**: Revenue of **NT$59,194 million** - **2024E**: Revenue of **NT$71,728 million** - **2025E**: Revenue of **NT$100,476 million** - **2026E**: Revenue of **NT$115,514 million** [3][10] 5. **Profit Margins**: - **EBIT margin** is projected to improve from **12.5% in FY23A** to **19.6% in FY26E**. - **Net margin** is expected to rise from **9.0% in FY23A** to **12.9% in FY26E** [10][11] 6. **Growth Rates**: - Revenue growth year-over-year is expected to be **5.7% in FY23A**, **21.2% in FY24E**, **40.1% in FY25E**, and **15.0% in FY26E** [10][11] - Adjusted EPS growth is projected at **20.8% in FY23A**, **52.5% in FY24E**, **43.2% in FY25E**, and **23.9% in FY26E** [10][11] Important but Overlooked Content 1. **Key Risks**: - Potential cooling-off of AI sentiment impacting valuation - Yield issues for new capacity/products - Delays in new product launches by customers - Increasing competition as the thermal market expands [16][10] 2. **Market Performance**: The company has shown a **YTD performance of 89.0%** and a **12-month performance of 105.5%**, indicating strong market interest [5][10] 3. **Valuation Metrics**: - The **FCFF yield** is projected to increase from **2.5% in FY23A** to **6.8% in FY26E**. - The **dividend yield** is expected to rise from **0.9% in FY23A** to **2.1% in FY26E** [10][11] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call regarding AVC's financial outlook, growth potential, and associated risks in the thermal solutions industry.

Exhibit 6: ChiNext turnover (scaled to 0-100% based on the percentage away from its high and low levels since January 2014) vs. CSI 300 Exhibit 7: Equity futures turnover (vs. three months ago; scaled to 0-100% based on the percentage away from its high and low 300 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Mar-14Oct-14May-15Dec-15Jul-16Feb-17Sep-17Apr-18Nov-18Jun-19Jan-20Aug-20Mar-21Oct-21May-22Dec-22Jul-23Feb-24Sep-24 RSI-30D* CSI300 (RHS) -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Mar-14Sep-14Mar-15Sep-15Ma ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company and Industry Overview - The company operates in the humanoid robotics sector, focusing on products such as reducers and screw tools, with a significant emphasis on screw tools that involve both cyclone milling and grinding processes [1][1][1] Key Points and Arguments Humanoid Robotics Sector - **Product Focus**: Main products include reducers and screw tools, with screw tools utilizing cyclone milling and grinding techniques [1] - **Efficiency and Cost**: Cyclone milling offers approximately 10% higher efficiency compared to grinding, particularly in mass production scenarios [1] - **Production Challenges**: Currently, large-scale production is not achieved; the market predominantly uses grinding techniques. There is a need to enhance processing efficiency and control costs to transition to cyclone milling [1] - **Application Potential**: The technology can replace traditional hydraulic methods, with applications in automotive steering components and significant potential in consumer humanoid robot joints [1] Superhard Tools - **Precision Gear Processing**: The demand for superhard tools is increasing due to higher precision requirements in sectors like new energy vehicles [1] - **Market Size**: The domestic commercial tool market is approximately 470 billion, with the superhard tool market valued at around 70-80 billion, representing about 15% market share [1] - **Competitive Landscape**: The company is competitive in diamond tools and aims to replace Japan's Sumitomo in the CBN sector [1] Business Performance - **Revenue Growth**: Superhard tools saw a 20% year-on-year growth from January to September, with a recovery in order demand expected in Q4 [1] - **Market Segmentation**: Nearly 50% of superhard tool sales are from consumer electronics and 3C structural components [1] - **Sales Model**: The company primarily serves end customers and collaborates with machine tool manufacturers, providing turnkey project solutions [1] - **Future Direction**: The focus remains on superhard tools, with a growing demand in manufacturing upgrades and emerging industries. Custom R&D and market sales will follow application promotion [1] Order Trends - **Q4 Outlook**: Significant improvement is anticipated in the CNC blade business due to strategic adjustments and the development of customized CNC blade products [1] Additional Important Information - **Price Trends**: The company has established a solid pricing system for CNC blades, distancing itself from the highly competitive market, although it lacks comprehensive insights into the overall industry pricing trends [2] - **Downstream Applications**: CNC blades are primarily used in general machinery, engineering machinery molds, and small to medium enterprises [2]