策略周末谈 - 逢低增配，不必切换 20241229 • 小盘股在 2025 年仍将持续占优，近期回调是配置良机。 Q&A 我们依然维持月初以来的观点，认为小盘股将在 2025 年持续占优。尽管近期小 盘股出现阶段性回调，但这实际上提供了一个增加配置的窗口。我们分析了三个 核心原因导致近期小盘股走弱：第一是国 9 条即将实施，对小盘风格形成潜在制 约；第二是国内流动性释放推迟；第三是险资对价值股增配。然而，这些因素影 响仅限于短期，中长期看影响有限。目前来看，小盘股的下一次行情可能已经蓄 势待发。 国 9 条退市新规即将生效，引发了市场对小盘股的恐慌情绪，导致其下跌。交易 类规范类退市条件已经生效，但预计不会产生明显冲击，影响较大的是财务类退 市风险警示。新增利润总额作为考察项，并且主板营收要求从 1 亿元提高到 3 亿元，这些变化使得相关公司面临更严格的监管。然而，从前三季度业绩可以参 考整体风险范围可控。据测算，2024 年全年营收不超过 1 亿元有退市风险的小 公司有 31 家，主板营收 1-3 亿有退市风险公司 74 家，总计约 100 家公司受新规 影响，相对有限。 降准政策大概率只是推迟，而非改变 ...

• 红利资产近期表现优异，主要源于年底保险资金配置需求增加、政策真空 期机构投资者影响力上升以及市场风险偏好谨慎等因素。 • 低利率环境下，险资寻求高分红低波动的红利资产进行配置，推动红利资 产价格上涨。10 年期国债收益率跌破 2%，凸显低利率环境的严峻性。 • 政策节奏方面，年底政策分析机构对市场定价能力增强，更青睐红利资产； 但长期来看，2025 年红利资产将仅有绝对收益，缺乏相对收益。 • DD 模型预测红利风格相对优势最多持续到 2025 年 3 月，之后成长风格将 重新占优，这与政策方向转变、风险偏好提升预期有关。 • 2025 年市场变化主要受政策密度、特朗普上任后的表态以及低利率环境 下投资方式转变等因素影响。 • 建议将红利资产作为底仓配置，关注长期价值，并更多关注成长风格，尤 其是在科技成长、消费、地产、新能源等领域。 • 《新国九条》强化现金分红监管，提升了业绩稳定、分红能力强的央国企 红利股的长期投资价值，建议关注高股息优化策略。 近期红利资产为何占优？未来红利资产的行情能否持续？ 模型分析，我们认为红利风格相对优势最多持续到 2025 年 3 月，此后成长风格 将重新占优。 我们认为 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company/Industry Involved - The discussion revolves around the Chinese stock market, specifically focusing on major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, and various sector performances. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Market Performance**: The Shanghai Composite Index has shown a bottoming out and is in a slow upward trend, but the pace is hindered by profit-taking and trapped positions, with trading volume not effectively expanding [1][3][31]. 2. **Investor Sentiment**: Current market sentiment and liquidity are positive, yet the lack of strong upward momentum leads to a cautious outlook among investors [1][3][12]. 3. **Large vs. Small Cap Stocks**: There is a clear divergence between large-cap and small-cap stocks, with large-cap indices like the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 showing signs of recovery, while small-cap indices like the CSI 2000 and North China 50 continue to struggle [1][5][13][35]. 4. **Investment Recommendations**: Investors are advised to cautiously increase positions in large-cap stocks while maintaining a wait-and-see approach for small-cap stocks until clearer bottoming signals emerge [5][19][24]. 5. **Sector Performance**: Dividend-focused sectors, particularly large financials, are performing well, while growth sectors like media and technology are experiencing significant pullbacks. The real estate sector, despite policy support, is facing confidence issues and continues to adjust [1][17][37]. 6. **Adjustment Period for Small Caps**: The CSI 2000 index is still undergoing adjustments, expected to last until around the Lunar New Year, with the North China 50 also needing further adjustments [1][20][39]. 7. **Technical Analysis**: The CSI 2000 has shown a MACD divergence indicating a potential larger correction, suggesting that adjustments may not be over yet [7][15][39]. 8. **Future Market Outlook**: The market is expected to continue a slow upward trend, but investors should temper their expectations for rapid gains, focusing instead on stable returns [19][24][31]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Market Dynamics**: The market is currently in a phase of stock rotation influenced by themes rather than pure industry logic, indicating a need for investors to adapt their strategies accordingly [28][51]. 2. **Sector Rotation Reports**: The introduction of a sector rotation monthly report that includes style comparison tables to better capture market dynamics and investor sentiment [26][45]. 3. **Investment Strategy Adjustments**: Investors are encouraged to lower their expectations for quick profits and instead focus on maintaining current positions while waiting for more favorable conditions, particularly in small-cap stocks [24][41][42]. 4. **Emerging Themes**: The evaluation of emerging themes such as artificial intelligence shows high potential, indicating areas where investors might find significant opportunities [52][56]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and recommendations from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current market landscape and strategic considerations for investors.

摘要 本周市场整体表现如何？有哪些主要趋势和变化？ 从市场资金参与者角度来看，本周稳定性资金（如社保基金、重仓基金）的超额 收益较为明显，而活跃资金持仓的市场情绪指数跌幅约为 6%。本周一市场情绪 调整力度较大，跌停家数从上周二的 171 家增加到 219 家，两融余额维持在 1.88 万亿附近。活跃资金部分退出市场并非完全由于赚钱效应下降，而是因为发现了 市场风格转变，从选择基本面不强但活跃标的转向机构属性更强、有逻辑支持的 标的。 汽车行业近期主要交易的是智驾相关概念，上汽集团表现尤为突出。这可能与其 阿尔法因素、国企改革及外部合作尝试有关。未来汽车总量增长不会爆发式，但 AI 赋能汽车结构升级方向明确，可沿着智驾产业链上游增量分支（如国产芯片） 进行关注。此外，比亚迪宣布成立未来实验室研发机器人，也是一个值得关注的 发展动态。 AI 算力大涨之后，科技行情如何演绎 20241229 Q&A 市场情绪和资金流向有何变化？ AI 算力板块本周跑出了超额收益，但在周五出现明显回调。回调原因包括短期 涨幅过快导致高切低，以及幻方开源模型 DP3 训练算力大幅减少引发担忧。然而， 应注意到 DP3 模型在特定领域 ...

2025 年，周期如何看 20241229 • 2025 年航空板块供需紧张，需求将超过供给 3 个百分点以上，三大航有 望进入盈利周期，2026-2027 年进入涨价周期。 • 『一带一路』倡议下，中国对外开放程度提升，建议关注与相关国家关联 度高的公司，例如嘉瑞国际。 • 十年国债利率稳中向下，利好红利长周期板块，推荐关注公路、港口、以 及高股息率且业绩恢复良好的公司，如苏美达、厦门象屿等。 • 2024 年化工行业价格持续回落，利润下降，但 2025 年出口压力增大，但 政策预期加码，内需有望回升，看好维生素、凝胶短纤、改性塑料等子行 业。 • 2024 年化工行业洗牌完成，开工率高，库存水平佳，2025 年盈利有望修 复，推荐关注三友化工、ST 众泰、同坤股份、新凤鸣、金发科技、汇通 国恩等。 • 2025 年金属行业温和向上，关注战略矿产资源（稀土、钨等）和传统顺 周期金属（铝、铜、钢等），铝的供需格局最为有利。 • 煤炭板块兼具周期性和红利属性，2025 年仍具备投资机会，建议关注中 国神华和陕西煤业等龙头企业。 2025 年航空板块的供需情况如何？ 对于"一带一路"倡议下外需市场的发展预期如何？ ...

市场上存在两种相互矛盾的观点。一种认为美国 PPT（PowerPoint Technology） 进度放缓，有利于中国赶超；另一种则认为美国速度加快，有利于应用的铺设。 整体来看，市场扩散行情并不景气，监管对小微盘股态度转向，估值水平偏高。 当前红利资产上涨主要集中在银行和石油石化主题投资领域，而 TMT 板块交易热 度达到两年来最高位，但整体主题投资有所放缓。 前反映降息预期。继续降息可能不利于制造业，因为债务融资成本差异明显，有 助于行业出清。此外，银行息差已非常低，监管努力守住息差，因此降息必要性 和制约性都在下降。 中国中下游去库存过程及其对不同板块的影响如何？ 牟一凌：变化前夜 20241229 摘要 • 美国 PPT 技术发展进度存在两种截然不同的市场观点：一种认为进度放缓 利好中国，另一种则认为加速有利于应用铺设。但当前市场扩散行情低迷， 监管趋严，估值偏高，需谨慎看待。 • 无风险利率下行是当前市场环境的主要驱动因素，但基于货币宽松预期的 流动性交易可能存在误判。历史数据显示，贷款利率上升往往导致短暂反 弹后回落，需关注贷款利率下降与实体经济支持力度之间的平衡。 • 央行政策变化，如严查手动补 ...

Key Points Company Performance and Future Outlook * **Company Performance**: The company has demonstrated strong performance in recent years with average quarterly year-over-year growth exceeding 30%. The equity incentive target for next year is set at over 50% growth, indicating a leading position in fundamental aspects. The company has also made significant investments in areas such as text reasoning, as evidenced by the need for 28 equivalent APP cards to generate 10 minutes of entities daily. [7] * **Future Outlook**: The company aims for a growth rate of over 50% next year. Capital expenditures are expected to reach 800 billion yuan this year and at least 1.6 trillion yuan next year. The overseas expansion pace is accelerating, with the Asian data center construction of Wanyuedata growing by over 40%. [9][10][39] Industry and Market Trends * **Domestic Computing Power Industry**: The development of the domestic computing power industry is mainly driven by large enterprises such as Alibaba, Tencent, and Xiaomi. Jinshan Cloud has shown strong growth potential. High-value targets are concentrated in areas such as switches, optical modules, and cross connect networks, with Unigroup Huaqin performing well. [2][9] * **ABC Technology and Capital Expenditures**: The development of ABC technology is closely related to capital expenditures, driving the AI arms race. Tencent and Alibaba have experienced a recovery in capital expenditures since 2023, with year-over-year growth exceeding 30%. This trend has prompted other internet companies to follow suit, making ABC technology an investment hotspot. [11][39] * **Overseas Market Expansion**: The overseas expansion pace is accelerating, with Wanyuedata's Asian data center construction growing by over 40%. Domestic demand remains strong, with ByteDance's user activity and usage time concentrated in China, but its overseas business is also rapidly growing. [18] Key Players and Partnerships * **Zhongxing Communications**: Zhongxing Communications plans to launch AI smartphones based on large models and collaborate with ByteDance to create a private assistant smartphone that can complete complex tasks with a single tap. The two companies have officially engaged in discussions and signed a cooperation contract, with the prototype expected to be released in the second quarter of next year and the first competitive model to be launched in the second half of the year. [8] * **Rongze Technology**: Rongze Technology is a key participant in the ABC field and has achieved continuous revenue growth through deep cooperation with ByteDance and other customers. The company is currently building multiple new data centers, with a total reserve of 320,000, which will further enhance its profitability and maintain its leading position in the industry. [10][17] * **Unigroup Huaqin**: Unigroup Huaqin has performed well in areas such as switches, optical modules, and cross connect networks, making it a key player in the industry. [9][38] Potential Catalysts and Opportunities * **Rongze Technology**: Potential catalysts for Rongze Technology include VIP additional capital expenditures, other manufacturers' share increases, expansion into other internet business departments, and continuous improvement in profitability and obtaining more bids during the 870 upgrade process. The company's server integration solution has opened up new possibilities, making it a core supplier in AI network architecture. [15] * **Zhongxing Communications**: Zhongxing Communications is leading in the IT field and may strengthen cooperation with potential suppliers such as Taiwanese companies. If future demand reaches 400,000 units, the company's share will be 20%, corresponding to 100,000 units and an additional 1 billion yuan in profit. Strengthening cooperation with companies in the Zhongguancun region is expected to further enhance its market competitiveness and profitability. [19] * **Ruijie Networks**: Ruijie Networks, as a leading white box switch manufacturer, has strong market performance and promising future prospects. Potential catalysts include VIP additional capital expenditures, other manufacturers' share increases, expansion into other internet business departments, and continuous improvement in profitability and obtaining more bids during the 870 upgrade process. The company's server integration solution has opened up new possibilities, making it a core supplier in AI network architecture. [15][37] Conclusion The computing power industry is experiencing rapid development, driven by the increasing demand for AI and cloud computing. Key players such as Rongze Technology, Zhongxing Communications, and Ruijie Networks are actively expanding their market presence and exploring new opportunities. The industry outlook remains positive, with significant growth potential in the future.

摘要 What are the implications of a potential Trump 2.0 presidency for the US equity market and the dollar? How does this level of uncertainty compare with Trump's first term? Markets tend to overreact both positively and negatively. The initial positive reaction was due in part to Republicans being seen as more market-friendly compared to Democrats. However, there are likely bumps ahead if trade sanctions persist longer than expected or if interest rates remain high for an extended period due to economic unc ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The domestic AI industry is experiencing significant growth, highlighted by events such as the seasonal AI release conference, proactive layouts by companies like Xiaomi and Li Auto, and collaborations between Apple and Chinese manufacturers. This indicates a robust industrial ecosystem and a pool of top AI talent in China, driving innovation and profitability [2][10][31]. Company-Specific Insights - ByteDance has placed orders totaling approximately 4 billion RMB for optical modules, including 2 million units of 400G multimode modules priced at 500-600 RMB each with a gross margin of 10-15%, and 400-500 thousand units of 400G single-mode modules priced at around 1,200 RMB each with a gross margin of 20-25%. Key suppliers include Hisilicon, Huagong, and Xuchuang [3][10]. - ByteDance's projected procurement for optical modules in 2025 is expected to reach 2.5 billion RMB, with a notable increase in demand for 800G optical modules. Major suppliers for 800G include Hisense, Guangxun, and Huagong Technology [10][34]. - Huawei's demand for optical modules in 2025 is estimated at 4.5 million units, primarily focusing on 400G multimode and single-mode modules, with Hisilicon accounting for over half of the supply [10][35]. - Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu, and Xinhua San are also expected to have substantial demand for 400G optical modules, with total requirements exceeding 1.5 million units [27][28]. Market Trends and Competitive Landscape - The optical module market is anticipated to see a significant increase in demand, particularly in 2025, driven by major internet companies like ByteDance, Huawei, Alibaba, and Tencent, with total procurement exceeding 1 million units [10][11][28]. - The competition in the optical module market is intense, especially for low-speed short-distance products like 400G multimode, where prices have dropped to around 500-600 RMB per unit, resulting in lower profit margins. Companies with silicon photonics R&D capabilities and cost control will have a competitive edge [25][36]. - Notable companies to watch include Zhongji Xuchuang, Guangxun Technology, Huagong Technology, and Bochuang Technology, which have shown strong performance in silicon photonics R&D and market entry [18][30][37]. Key Suppliers and Procurement Insights - In the 400G multimode bidding for ByteDance, Hisilicon holds a 40-50% share, followed by Huagong at 30%. For single-mode, key suppliers include Xuchuang, Hisilicon, and Huagong [33]. - The demand for 800G single-mode modules from ByteDance is projected at 500,000 units, with significant contributions from Hisense, Guangxun, and Huagong [26][34]. - The overall procurement scale for ByteDance is expected to approach 4 billion RMB, with potential total demand reaching 5-6 billion RMB due to unawarded bids [26][11]. Conclusion - The domestic optical module market is poised for rapid growth, particularly in high-performance modules like 400G and 800G, driven by major internet companies. The competitive landscape favors companies with strong R&D capabilities and cost control, making them attractive investment opportunities [28][30].

Key Points Industry/Company Involved - The discussion primarily focuses on the A-share market, specifically the style switch between small-cap and large-cap stocks during the year-end to spring period. Core Views and Arguments - **Market Style Switch**: The market style tends to shift from small-caps to large-caps from mid-December to spring, with significant style switches around the New Year and the National People's Congress session. [2] - **Factors Influencing Style Switch**: The switch is influenced by regulatory policies, inflow of incremental funds (dominated by foreign and insurance institutions), and changes in monetary environment. [5] - **Performance of Small-Caps and Large-Caps**: Small-caps tend to perform better during short-term interest rate down cycles and in the period from the Spring Festival to the National People's Congress session. [6] - **Valuation and Fund Allocation**: Currently, industries with the lowest valuations and least fund allocation include consumer goods, real estate, and financial sectors. [11] - **Investment Strategy**: A barbell strategy is recommended, focusing on economic cycle-related assets in the short term, small-cap growth and dividend stocks in the medium to long term. [21] Other Important Points - **Historical Data**: Over the past 15 years, small-caps have generally underperformed large-caps from the end of the year to early January, but outperformed during the Spring Festival to the National People's Congress session. [13] - **Market Dynamics**: In April, the market enters a validation phase with the release of various information, leading to potential adjustments or declines in valuations. [6] - **Dividend Stocks**: Dividend stocks offer long-term stability and can be a good part of a diversified portfolio. [19] - **2025 Outlook**: Small-cap growth is expected to remain active in 2025 as the economy transitions from a recessionary phase to a recovery phase. [9]