各位投资人晚上好欢迎大家来到华创医药专家谈第52期本周我们的话题是一体快递的一些最新的进展请到了专家是从业经验非常丰富那么专家对一体快递的研发生产临床以及注册方面相关的问题都是非常熟悉的那么专家请简单给我们做一下自我介绍可以吗 好的 谢谢主持人 各位同志大家好我是来自上海一家专注于做细胞已经治疗的生产研发以及CNC的负责人我在CDT也就是细胞已经治疗产品的研发跟生产以及测试上已经有了八年多的经验我最专注的是在于一体通用型卡器的开发 从这个研发一直到CNC的开发一直到这个注册都做了多年的这个工作那么目前的话也已经就是在我的主导之下已经有一款这个一体通用型的这个卡器已经扩批我们国内的NT的一个NT的一个批件 那么其他类似的也有三款的这个产品也拿到了这个批件所以在这方面的话也有一些这个经验非常荣幸也非常高兴能够参加今晚的这个复兴活动我会尽我所能然后在这个领域的话能够就是希望能够带给各位的话一些启发跟这个提示谢谢好的好的专家那我这边先提几个小问题现在因为有很多不同来源的T细胞都可以做通用型的carcin 那么细胞来源会决定后面的处理以及它的一些设计那目前最主流的可能就是alpha beta p, gamma delt ...

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Summary of the China Spirits Tracker Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference focused on the Chinese spirits industry, particularly the strategies and performance of major companies as they prepare for the Lunar New Year (LNY) of 2025, under the "Kaimenhong" strategy aimed at sustainable growth [7][8]. Key Companies and Their Strategies 1. **Kweichow Moutai** - Continues to control the shipment volume of Feitian Moutai while increasing non-standard SKUs and series spirits [7]. - Monthly shipments are aligned with prepayment schedules, indicating a cautious approach to growth [7]. 2. **Wuliangye Yibin** - Set a target contract volume for the 8th-gen Common Wuliangye with a mild increase year-over-year (yoy) for 2025, referencing average volumes from 2022-2024 [8]. - The prepayment portion for the Strong-Start campaign is set at 40%, with net costs for distributors around Rmb942-943 per bottle after a 7.5% rebate [8]. 3. **Luzhou Laojiao** - Aims for over 20% volume growth for Guojiao in 2025, with regional variations expected based on performance [9]. 4. **Shanxi Fen Wine** - Targets Rmb40 billion in sales for 2025, focusing on channel health and stability, with new product Qinghua 26 expected to contribute to incremental volume [9]. 5. **Gujing** - Achieved its full-year prepayment target for 2024 by December 10, indicating strong distributor engagement [9]. Pricing Trends - **Feitian Moutai**: - Wholesale price increased by Rmb25 from Rmb2,235 to Rmb2,260 for original cases, and by Rmb10 from Rmb2,190 to Rmb2,200 for unpacked cases [20][31]. - **Common Wuliangye**: - Price remained stable at Rmb950 per bottle, with a slight increase noted in regional pricing references [20][31]. - **Guojiao 1573**: - Price remained stable at Rmb860 per bottle [20][31]. Market Dynamics - The spirits companies are adopting a cautious stance due to the gradual recovery expected in 2025, influenced by macroeconomic factors and policy stimuli [7]. - Distributors have low expectations for rebate levels, indicating a potential challenge in maintaining distributor motivation [8]. Export Performance - In the first ten months of 2024, China's spirits exports saw a volume increase of 3.3% and a value increase of 15.9% year-over-year [22]. Key Risks Identified - Potential regulatory changes, such as consumption tax hikes, environmental concerns, and macroeconomic recovery speed are significant risks for companies like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye Yibin [81]. - Intensifying competition in the high-end spirits market poses a threat to profitability across the sector [81]. Conclusion - The Chinese spirits industry is preparing for a cautious yet strategic growth phase as companies set their sights on the upcoming Lunar New Year. The focus remains on maintaining distributor relationships, managing pricing strategies, and navigating potential regulatory challenges while aiming for sustainable growth in a competitive landscape [7][8][9].

Summary of the Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - **Industry**: Steel Industry in China - **Date**: December 12, 2024 - **Source**: Citi Research Key Points and Arguments Production Data - Total steel production in China from December 6 to December 12 was **8.6 million tons (mt)**, reflecting a **-0.1% week-over-week (WoW)** and **-5.4% year-over-year (YoY)** decrease - Breakdown of production: - Rebar: **2.18 mt**, **-2.0% WoW**, **-15% YoY** - Hot Rolled Coil (HRC): **3.20 mt**, **+1.0% WoW**, **+1.8% YoY** - Cold Rolled Coil (CRC): **0.86 mt**, **-0.1% WoW**, **+3.4% YoY** - Year-to-date total steel production was **427 mt**, down **-3.6% YoY** [9][10] Inventory Levels - Steel inventory in China was **11.4 mt** on December 12, down **-1.8% WoW** and **-12.2% YoY** - Breakdown of inventory: - Steel mills: **3.6 mt**, **-3.7% WoW**, **-15.6% YoY** - Traders: **7.8 mt**, **-0.9% WoW**, **-10.6% YoY** - Specific inventory for Rebar, HRC, and CRC: - Rebar: **4.2 mt**, **-4.4% WoW**, **-21.1% YoY** - HRC: **3.1 mt**, **+1.0% WoW**, **-4.4% YoY** - CRC: **1.5 mt**, **+0.2% WoW**, **+3.3% YoY** [10] Apparent Consumption - Apparent steel consumption for the week was **8.8 mt**, up **+0.8% WoW** but down **-3.1% YoY** - Breakdown of apparent consumption: - Rebar: **2.4 mt**, **+4.4% WoW**, **-5.6% YoY** - HRC: **3.2 mt**, **0% WoW**, **-0.4% YoY** - CRC: **0.8 mt**, **-0.9% WoW**, **+5.5% YoY** - Year-to-date apparent consumption was **429 mt**, down **-3.2% YoY** [11] Market Sentiment - Market expectations for demand recovery in the steel sector remain cautious - The revised near-term sector pecking order is: Steel, Cement, Coal, Gold, Copper, Aluminum, and Lithium [9] Additional Important Information - The report includes analyst certifications and important disclosures regarding potential conflicts of interest - Investors are advised to consider this report as one factor in their investment decisions [12][46] This summary encapsulates the critical data and insights from the conference call, focusing on production, inventory, and consumption trends in the Chinese steel industry, along with market sentiment and potential investment implications.

Summary of the Conference Call on Chinese Gold Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the Chinese gold mining industry, particularly highlighting companies such as Zhaojin, Zijin, and Shandong Gold [8][46][47]. Key Insights 1. **Positive Outlook on Gold Prices**: Morgan Stanley maintains a constructive view on gold prices, forecasting a modest near-term upside with a target of US$2,850/oz for 2Q25, which is 5% higher than current levels [8][46]. 2. **Investment Opportunities**: The report emphasizes alpha opportunities among Chinese gold miners, driven by: - Above-peer volume growth. - Easing policies in China providing cheap funding for growth. - Strong appetite from Chinese investors [8][46][50]. 3. **Production Growth Forecast**: - Zhaojin, Shandong Gold, and Zijin are projected to achieve gold production CAGRs of 20.8%, 12.4%, and 8.2% respectively from 2023 to 2028 [8][46][49]. - Zhaojin's Haiyu project is expected to commence by the end of 2025, significantly boosting its output [8][46]. 4. **Currency Impact**: A weaker Chinese Yuan (CNY) is expected to benefit gold miners, with forecasts suggesting a depreciation to 7.6 by the end of 2025 [8][46]. 5. **Market Performance**: Chinese gold stocks have underperformed compared to global peers, with a 7-28% increase over the past year, lagging behind global gold stocks which rose 8-49% [8][46][50]. Financial Metrics - **Gold Price Sensitivity**: For every 1% increase in gold prices, net profits for Zhaojin, Shandong Gold, and Zijin are expected to rise by 0.7-2.8% [8][47]. - **Investment Demand Growth**: Investment demand for gold in China surged by 46% YoY in 1H24, while jewelry demand fell by 27% YoY [50][61]. Strategic Recommendations - **Preferred Stocks**: Morgan Stanley recommends Shandong Gold (H) and Zhaojin as preferred picks in the Chinese gold sector, with respective price targets indicating significant upside potential [8][46][37]. - **M&A Activity**: The report notes that Chinese gold producers have been active in mergers and acquisitions, which is expected to enhance their growth profiles [8][46][49]. Risks and Considerations - **Execution Risks**: Concerns regarding the execution of overseas projects by Chinese miners amid geopolitical tensions and high gold prices were highlighted [8][46]. - **Market Sentiment**: Potential delays in rate cuts and shifts in market sentiment could lead to profit-taking in the sector [8][46]. Conclusion The Chinese gold mining industry presents significant investment opportunities driven by favorable market conditions, strong production growth, and a robust investment appetite from domestic investors. However, investors should remain cautious of execution risks and market volatility.

shuinu9870 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： December 12, 2024 02:55 PM GMT Morgan Star | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Industry or Company Involved The document does not explicitly mention a specific industry or company. However, it focuses on the Japanese government bond (JGB) market and related financial instruments. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Japanese Government Bond (JGB) Market Overview**: - The document provides a comprehensive overview of the JGB market, including interest rates, yields, and futures. - It includes data on JGB par rates, swap rates, and swap spreads for various maturities. - The document also discusses JGB futures and their relationship with the Nikkei 225 index. 2. **JGB Market Trends**: - The document highlights the recent trends in the JGB market, such as changes in yields and swap spreads. - It includes charts and tables showing the historical and current values of key JGB market indicators. 3. **JGB Derivatives**: - The document discusses various JGB derivatives, such as JGB futures, swaps, and options. - It includes detailed information on the pricing and valuation of these derivatives. 4. **JGB Butterfly Spreads**: - The document explains the concept of JGB butterfly spreads and provides examples of different types of butterfly spreads. - It includes charts showing the butterfly spreads for various maturities and coupon rates. 5. **JGB ASW (Asset-Backed Securities) Spreads**: - The document discusses JGB ASW spreads and their relationship with JGB yields. - It includes charts showing the ASW spreads for different maturities. 6. **JGBi (Japanese Government Bond Index)**: - The document explains the JGBi and its components. - It includes charts showing the BEI (Benchmark Equivalent Index) for different maturities and regions. Other Important Content - The document includes various exhibits and tables containing detailed data on the JGB market and related instruments. - It provides references to sources such as Bloomberg and Morgan Stanley Research. - The document includes important disclosures regarding the research and its limitations.

交运 继续看好【内需】+【低空】20241212 摘要 • 适度宽松的货币政策为内需提供了良好支撑，航空业有望受益于政策红利、 经营数据改善和财务数据转好，预计明年将迎来大幅向上发展，油价下降 也将显著降低航油成本。 • 快递行业龙头企业顺丰通过降本增效和业务模式变革，实现超预期业绩， 未来收入增速有望持续上升，部分企业为降低成本选择综合物流服务，利 好龙头企业发展。 • 内需升级方面，大型航空公司（如国航）和综合物流服务公司（如顺丰） 值得关注，大型航空公司具有较高的票价弹性，快递公司则受益于降本增 效和业务模式优化。 • 随着适度宽松货币政策落地和一揽子政策出台，需求端将提升，大型航空 公司将进一步优化收益管理，需求超预期增长将带动票价弹性释放，快递 行业收入增速有望持续上升。 • 中国物流行业呈现寡头垄断格局，主要企业竞争优势明显，内需顺周期背 景下，基建、制造业、地产和消费端需求将拉动内贸集运需求，提升公司 利润。 • 低空经济是未来重要发展方向，政府大力推动，明年将进入订单发展周期 和并购重组周期，建议关注载人无人机、工业级无人机、通用发动机市场 以及低空信息带中的雷达环节等领域。 • 美国 FAA ...

金价走高，如何解析 20241212 摘要 • 国际金价突破 2,700 美元/盎司，年内涨幅近 25%，主要受美国通胀数据 符合预期、美联储降息预期升温、中国央行重启购金等因素驱动。 • 美国 CPI 数据符合预期，增强了市场对美联储 12 月降息的预期，历史数 据显示降息环境下黄金和美股通常表现强劲，利好金价。 • 中国央行 11 月重启黄金购进，累计增持超 260 吨，此举以及民间购金行 为对国际金价形成短期利好。各国央行持续购金，旨在对冲地缘政治和贸 易风险，分散美元风险。 • 未来金价走势将受美国通胀及货币政策、中国及其他国家央行购金行为、 全球地缘政治和贸易局势等因素影响。 • 尽管短期美元走强和美债利率较高对金价构成压力，但美元已进入降息周 期，且预防性降息环境下黄金通常表现良好，我们看好 2025 年黄金行情。 • 建议投资者通过黄金 ETF（如华安黄金 ETF 518,880）进行黄金投资，该 产品低门槛、便捷且费用较低，规模大，流动性好。 • A 股市场情绪向好，政策利好经济复苏，建议关注内需消费（华安食品饮 料 ETF 516,900）和科技领域（科创 50ETF 588,280、科创芯 ...

金工资产配置观点：强美元环境下如何进行资产选择 20241212 摘要 • 美元预计将进入强势周期，未来可能上涨 15%-30%，美元指数或将达到 115 甚至更高点位。 • 强美元环境下，各国货币兑美元汇率与美联储与各国利差密切相关，利差 越小，货币表现越强劲；反之，则越弱。 • 技术指标显示，欧元和英镑兑美元的强势期可能已结束，市场可能接近拐 点。 • 美元走强对股票市场、大宗商品市场均有显著抑制作用，但对美债和中国 债券的影响则相对复杂，甚至可能利好。 • 2024 年，预计美元将持续走强，对多种资产构成压制，但黄金可能逆势 上涨，中国债券也可能表现较好。 • 公司采用周期信号与动量信号结合的资产配置策略，目前主要持仓包括国 内外股票、黄金、中国国债等，并根据市场变化进行动态调整。 • 11 月商品市场震荡走弱，但贵金属和部分黑色系商品出现反弹，工业金 属和农产品表现相对疲软，未来走势需关注宏观经济和地缘政治因素。 Q&A 强美元环境下，未来美元走势的预期如何？ 我们认为明年大概率会进入到一个美元强势周期。根据我们的周期视角，美元的 弱势周期从 2022 年 10 月开始，到今年基本结束。从技术层面看， ...