冰雪经济之旅游、运动 20241212 摘要 • 2023 年哈尔滨旅游业强劲复苏，游客接待量同比增长 140%以上，旅游收 入同比增长 200%以上，但人均消费下降至 1,200 元，低于 2019 年的 1,600 多元，显示消费降级趋势。 • 哈尔滨主要客源地为本省及长三角、珠三角、京津冀地区，游客以 18-50 岁女性为主，过夜游客比例达 72%。 • 哈尔滨夏季旅游收入仅为 2019 年的 59%，显示经济下行对旅游业的冲击； 洗浴中心在哈尔滨娱乐场所中占比超过 70%，反映了当地独特的休闲文化。 • 黑龙江冰雪旅游资源丰富，以极寒气候和独特景观取胜，而吉林则更注重 滑雪资源开发；两地政府在旅游发展策略上有所不同，黑龙江侧重媒体宣 传，吉林则更倾向于补贴。 • 大型文旅项目投资回报周期长，盈利模式需多元化；政府对大型文旅项目 的支持力度有限，项目落地更多依赖市场回报。 • 抖音等新兴平台在哈尔滨旅游推广中发挥重要作用，政府积极利用短视频 平台提升城市形象和吸引游客。 • 黑龙江省重视游客满意度和负面评价处理，建立了完善的投诉机制，并通 过严厉打击违规行为维护市场秩序，但客单价下降和人口流出仍是挑战。 ...

Key Points Industry Overview 1. **Sales Task Allocation**: The "开门红" (Spring Festival Sales) task accounts for 30% of the annual target, with 40% expected to be completed in the first quarter, and the remaining 30% to be fulfilled post-Chinese New Year. [1] 2. **First Quarter End Collection Progress**: Expected collection progress is around 40%, in line with last year but below the average of 45% in previous years. [3] 3. **Consumer Scenario Changes in Jiangsu Province**: Consumption decreased in October, but business hospitality wine improved and home banquet wine quality increased post-first quarter. [4] 4. **Future白酒 Industry Outlook**: The industry may underperform in 2025 compared to 2024. Focus on maintaining mid-to-high-end products and monitoring demand for low-priced products. [5] 5. **Spring Festival Collection Policy**: Enhanced with measures like double red envelopes and group discounts to optimize channel profits and boost consumer purchasing enthusiasm. [6] 6. **Fifth Generation Four-Open Product**: Priced at 420-440 yuan, facing significant sales pressure. Aim to achieve volume growth during the Spring Festival and clear old inventory. [7] Company-Specific 1. **Inventory and Financial Conditions of Distributors**: Inventory slightly higher than last year, with moderate financial conditions. The company will support distributors with other products to address the "开门红" challenge. [9] 2. **Terminal Stores' Operating Pressure**: Focus on partnering with resource-rich and group-purchasing capable stores, avoiding small-scale stores relying on passersby. [10] 3. **Inventory and Wholesale Prices of Fenjiu in Provincial Markets**: Inventory cycles range from 30 to 60 days for Qing 30, Qing 40, and China Dragon series, and 40 to 45 days for Qinghua 25 series. Prices for Baonan 20 series and basic versions are around 1,800 yuan, while Lao Bai Fen 15 and 10 series are stable at 1,605 and 1,105 yuan respectively. [12] 4. **Performance Growth Targets for Next Year**: Set a growth target of not less than 10%, aiming for 15%. Higher targets for core markets like Taiyuan, Jinyang, and Xinzhou, while lower targets for peripheral areas like Datong and Shuozhou. [13] 5. **Spring Festival Collection Policy and Channel Incentive Mechanism**: Implemented from January 1st, with a fuzzy incentive mechanism to avoid price cuts by distributors and ensure price stability. [14] 6. **Reason for Higher Growth Targets in Core Markets**: High market share in core markets like Taiyuan, Jinyang, and Xinzhou for both catering and distribution channels. [15] 7. **Background and Market Positioning of 726 Product**: Launched to fill the gap in the mid-to-high-end product line. Aimed to compete with similar-priced Maotai-style wines and occupy market share. [16] 8. **Dealer Signing Status of 726 Series**: Distributors are cautious, with initial market testing. Expected to be priced around 600 yuan. [17] 9. **Inventory and Collection Progress in Henan Province for 2024**: Completion rate of 90% for the 2024 contract target, with a 10% gap from the initial goal. [18] 10. **Market Performance of New 35 Product**: Launched to adjust strategy after excessive red envelope spending and channel internal competition. [19] 11. **Changes in Pricing and Fee Allocation for New and Old Products**: New 35 product取消了红包 policy and adjusted dealer incentives. [20] 12. **Market Trend of New and Old Products**: Stable market trend for New 30, while New 15's market acceptance is yet to be fully raised. [22] 13. **Price Policy and Market Response for Zhen Shan Shi**: Price policy adjusted multiple times, with a current policy price of 980 yuan and a 60 yuan sales incentive per bottle. [23] 14. **Prospects for Wholesale Price Trend of Zheng 15 Large-Scale Product**: Dependent on pricing of upstream products like Hanjiu, Jiangxian, and 1988. [24] 15. **Inventory Status of Major Maotai Brands in Henan Province**: Langjiu and Xianjiu have the highest inventory levels, followed by Zhenjiu. Guotai and Jinsha have lower inventory pressure. [25] 16. **Profitability and Competitiveness of Jizhen with Competitors**: Offers 6% dealer incentives and additional rewards, making it competitive compared to competitors like Langjiu and Xianjiu. [26] 17. **开门红 Goals and Policies in Henan Province for 2024**: Set a 10% growth target, with 5% increase requiring 30% collection of the annual contract. [27] 18. **Impact of 开门红 Policy on Small-Town Markets**: No requirement for 开门红 activities, focusing on reducing inventory. [28] 19. **开门红 Activities for Zhen 30 Product**: Launched in September and considered as part of the 2025 target. [29] 20. **开门红 Policies for Jizhen Brand**: Provided additional incentives and no other extra policies. [30] 21. **Feasibility of 10% Growth Target for Jizhen in Henan Province**: Reasonable and achievable, with a projected growth of around 10%. [31] 22. **Dealer Response to Fee Allocation Adjustment**: Small-scale dealers may exit, but large-scale dealers will continue to cooperate. [32] 23. **Current Fee Disbursement Cycle and Policy Adjustments**: Approximately two to three months, with no significant extension since last year. [33]

如何看待字节带动的 AI 物联网和算力的投资机会？20241212 摘要 • 中高板块投资机会显著，但自学产业链投资需谨慎，需关注个股业绩及市 场表现，例如凤凰产业的数据搜索功能优势明显，但昆仑万维的豆包推广 效果有待提高。 • AI 技术深刻改变搜索方式和市场布局，传统搜索引擎面临挑战，新型平 台崛起，AI 驱动视频内容发展，企业应用方面 AI 提升效率，带动云基础 设施投入增加。 • 抖音积极布局 AI 领域，通过模型研发、开发者平台和 AI 社交产品猫箱等 举措，构建生态系统，未来发展策略集中在搜索引擎、开发者平台和社交 互动三大领域。 • 阿里巴巴和腾讯在云计算领域投入巨大，但业绩未完全体现在股价上，面 临来自新兴企业和国际巨头的竞争压力。 • 技术支持模型发展迅速，多模态融合成为趋势，应用场景从手机终端向 PC 终端扩展，未来潜力巨大，例如炒股软件等应用。 • AI 玩具市场增长迅速，家庭场景 WiFi 连接成为主流，乐心公司等专注家 庭场景的芯片厂商将受益。 • 车载智能化发展迅速，比亚迪等大客户带动相关企业如辉煌股份发展，移 远通信等物联网企业也受益，但需关注海外市场竞争。 Q&A 当前中高板块 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **robotics industry**, focusing on the development of humanoid robots and the integration of various technologies driving the sector forward [1][2][6]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Technological Innovation**: The robotics industry is experiencing significant advancements due to the integration of multidisciplinary technologies such as electronics, mechanics, biology, and materials science, which are expanding application scenarios [2][21]. - **Humanoid Robots Potential**: Humanoid robots, particularly Tesla's Optimus, are expected to see limited production in 2025 and mass production in 2026, with costs potentially dropping to $30,000 [1][3][4]. - **Commercialization Challenges**: The large-scale commercialization of humanoid robots is hindered by insufficient application scenarios, technical challenges, and high costs. The development of AI technologies and multimodal models is crucial for overcoming these barriers [1][5][7]. - **Key Milestones**: Significant events include Huawei's entry into the humanoid robot sector and the Bionic Robot Conference in Zhongguancun, which are expected to accelerate industry development and technological breakthroughs [1][6]. - **China's Competitive Edge**: China leads in the number of patents in humanoid robotics, has a comprehensive industrial ecosystem, and possesses abundant data resources and talent, although it needs to enhance technological innovation and brand building [1][10][11]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Investment Opportunities**: The robotics industry presents various investment opportunities, particularly in core components such as reducers, control systems, and servo systems, which are critical for robot performance and account for a significant portion of overall costs [17][20]. - **Market Dynamics**: The demand for AI chips is expected to rise, driven by the need for advanced processing capabilities in robotics, which could lead to a new wave of chip industry growth [15][16]. - **Future Trends**: The industry is likely to see increased collaboration between robots and humans, with a focus on enhancing robots' autonomous decision-making and execution capabilities [21]. Conclusion - The robotics industry is poised for significant growth, driven by technological advancements, expanding market demand, and supportive policies. Investors are encouraged to explore opportunities in companies leading in innovation and application within the sector [21].

现货涨价，集运期价为何一跌再跌？20241212 摘要 • 集运期货价格近期震荡下行，现货市场表现不佳，SCFI 指数小幅回落， 未达市场预期。 • 特朗普关税政策短期内影响市场情绪，但市场普遍认为其更可能是谈判策 略而非长期政策，对期价影响有限。 • 地缘政治因素，例如加沙停火谈判的不确定性，也对市场情绪造成一定影 响。 • 船公司表现疲软，涨价乏力，限仓情况低于预期，实际报价低于预期，形 成利空氛围。 • 季节性需求变化未如预期强劲，12 月旺季需求不及预期，港口拥堵指数 下行，未能扭转市场疲软态势。 • 欧洲航线运价上涨主要由于长线谈判季、12 月需求上升和春节前货量集 中安排，以及大型集装箱船交付量减少和红海绕行等因素。 • 建议谨慎操作，不宜重仓追空，虽然 12 月中下旬需求可能转好，但船公 司甩仓等因素导致当前需求不及预期，基本面支撑下，不建议重仓做空。 Q&A 近期集运期货价格波动较大，整体走势不乐观，请问主要原因是什么？ 近期集运期货价格波动较大，整体呈现震荡下行的态势。主要原因包括以下几个 方面： 1. 现货市场表现不佳：本周最新的期货标的数据上涨了 7.22%，收于 3,032.96 点， ...

字节 AI 系列研究 - 豆包深度测评 20241212 摘要 • 豆包 APP 全球月活跃用户达 5,998 万，位列全球第二，用户增长迅速，尤 其在美国和东南亚市场表现突出，国内日活跃用户也突破千万。 • 豆包 APP 在 AI 领域持续投入，未来资本开支将大幅增长，重点布局语言、 图片、音乐和视频模型研发，并拓展助手工具和社交等应用场景。 • 豆包 APP 已推出 AI 毛绒玩具体验包等 AI 软件应用，并将在下周的火山云 动力大会上分享数字平台智能算法应用及边缘智能硬件等内容。 • 豆包 APP 的国内市场优势在于广告配套与抖音流量结合，以及强大的算力 支持；海外市场则采用纯应用推广模式，快速占领市场份额。 • 豆包 APP 未来发展将受益于即将举办的大模型应用开发大会等催化剂，用 户数量持续增长，网站及移动端排名均显示其市场渗透率和影响力较高。 • 豆包模型在语言理解、文本生成、知识问答等方面表现出色，具备日常常 识判断、复杂逻辑推理和情感分析能力，并能保持逻辑一致性，支持多语 言和跨文化应用。 • 豆包模型具有安全性与合规性过滤功能，能够有效处理乱码，提供个性化 推荐，并具备良好的交互性和上下文记 ...

光模块行业投资机遇展望：硅光、DCI、AEC 等新技术带来新方向 20241212 摘要 • 光通信行业基本面良好，市场担忧被夸大，头部企业如中创新航、天孚科 技和易飞扬未来增长确定性高，估值提升概率大。 • 2024 年光通信仍是重要投资主线，硅光子技术在 AI 硬件中的应用及国内 需求上升将带来新的投资机遇。 • 市场对中美关系和关税的担忧有限，大部分企业已在东南亚布局产能，可 有效规避关税风险，美国进一步制裁光模块行业的可能性较低。 • 长期看好 AI 投资，视为十年甚至几十年的科技产业大周期，算力投资持 续增长，算力应用落地及业务收入再投入形成良性循环。 • 东南亚产能布局是应对关税风险的重要策略，有效降低了未来加征高额关 税或穿透制裁的可能性，历史经验表明客户可消化大部分关税成本。 • 硅光技术将在明年迎来放量增长，国内头部厂商如旭创已领先布局，将占 据高市场份额，CW 激光器需求也将增长。 • 数据中心互联(DCI)板块发展潜力巨大，AI 能源问题驱动需求增长，跨数 据中心互联是解决数据中心集中化带来的供电挑战的有效方法。 Q&A 当前光通信行业的基本面和市场情绪如何？ 我们认为光通信行业的基本面 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company Overview - **Company**: Guoguang Electric - **Industry**: Acoustic hardware and AI technology Key Points 1. Hardware Layout Overview - **Acoustic and AI Hardware**: Guoguang Electric focuses on the acoustic sector, with significant investments in AI hardware, achieving comprehensive layout in this area - **Revenue Generation**: The AI speaker and AR/VR acoustic module segments have generated approximately 1.2 billion in revenue, with a global market share of about 50% in AR/VR acoustic modules [1][1][1] 2. AI Headphone Business - **Client Progress**: Rapid advancements in AI headphones, with overseas clients testing prototypes; domestic clients are in technical discussions for the second generation [1][1][1] - **Product Updates**: The second version of the overseas AI headphones features changes in design, chip platforms, and battery solutions, with a potential third version focusing on minor details [1][1][1] 3. AI Glasses Business - **Development and Client Engagement**: Initial demo products were developed independently; collaboration with domestic clients is ongoing, with expected product launches in the first half of next year [1][1][1] - **Cost Advantage**: Domestic chip solutions offer significant cost savings compared to overseas options, with prices at 100 USD versus 200 USD [1][1][1] 4. Apple Supply Chain Planning - **Revenue Contribution**: Expected revenue from new products in the next year is projected to be between 1 to 1.5 billion, with multiple projects contributing to overall revenue [1][1][1] - **Future Growth**: Anticipated revenue growth in subsequent years could reach several billion as all projects begin full-scale production [1][1][1] 5. Automotive Audio Segment - **Revenue Growth**: Current revenue is around 100 million, expected to grow to 300 million next year and 800-1 billion in the following year [1][1][1] - **Client Base Expansion**: Currently supplying to Xpeng Motors, with plans to onboard additional major clients in the coming years [1][1][1] 6. VR/AR Segment - **Focus and Sales Expectations**: Continued emphasis on VR/AR, with expected explosive growth in VR sales due to partnerships with Meta [1][1][1] - **Acoustic Module Plans**: Maintaining over 50% gross margin in VR/AR acoustic modules, with ongoing projects extending to 2028 [1][1][1] 7. Battery Layout - **Subsidiary Operations**: Guoguang Electronics focuses on consumer batteries, with projected revenue growth from 600 million to 1.5 billion over the next three years [1][1][1] - **Product Development**: Emphasis on solid-state and semi-solid-state batteries as key development areas [1][1][1] 8. Tariff Risk Management - **Tariff Impact**: Limited exposure to tariffs, with strategies in place to shift production to Vietnam to mitigate risks [1][1][1] - **Production Capacity**: New facilities in Vietnam are expected to significantly increase production capacity [1][1][1] 9. Gross Margin and Expense Rate Outlook - **Expense Rate Projections**: Anticipated increase in expense rates starting in late 2024 due to new client projects, stabilizing thereafter [1][1][1] - **Gross Margin Trends**: Slight increases in gross margins expected, but not as significant as expense rate changes [1][1][1] 10. Overseas AI Headphone Model Adaptation - **Client Collaboration**: Ongoing collaboration with overseas clients to adapt models for AI headphones, with a focus on hardware integration [1][1][1] Additional Important Insights - **Competitive Advantage**: Guoguang Electric's long-standing expertise in acoustic technology and recent advancements in AI hardware position it favorably against competitors [1][1][1] - **Market Positioning**: The company is strategically positioned to capitalize on emerging trends in AI and consumer electronics, with a focus on high-value partnerships and innovative product development [1][1][1]

感谢大家参加本次会议会议即将开始请稍后 感谢大家参加本次会议会议即将开始请稍后 本次会议仅面向国胜证券的专业投资机构客户或受邀客户会议中嘉宾的发言内容仅代表其个人观点国胜证券研究人员的发言内容仅代表当日的判断具体请参见完整版的研究报告未经国胜证券事先书面许可任何机构或个人严禁录音、转发及相关解读涉嫌违反上述情形的我们将保留追究相关方法律责任的权利 好的各位投资朋友大家下午好欢迎参加我们今天下午关于加密市场区块链的一些交流我是孙嘉吉今天我们团队应该都会分享一下在各自研究方向上的一些研究成果最近因为比特币价格在突破10万美金以后整个市场关注度都很高 有不少朋友也来问起就是关于这个行业的一些变化包括对很多类似的美股公司它也形成了一个板块而且几乎是整个市场上弹性最大风险偏好最高的一个板块那么在BTC创新高以后这种板块的弹性也得以体现那么另外一个就是当比特币突破10万美金以后很多山寨 也都开始陆续启动那么从上周开始吧上两周开始其实都非常的热闹非常的热闹那么这个就类似于股票市场中这个大票创了新高以后那么这些小股票开始纷纷启动有点高低切的这个意思那在币的市场里面也一样所以这里面它又会每一轮起来的时候都会带有新的叙事带有新的 ...

国海证券与发布研究报告的部分观点只反映国海证券研究人员于发布环境报告当日的判断相关内容请以研究所以公开发布报告为准会议联机录音或转发任何人不得对本次会议的任何内容进行发布复制编辑改编 改编、转载、播放、展示或以其他任何方式非凡使用本次会议的部分或者全部内容否则将承担相应的法律责任国海证券就此保留一切法律审理在任何情况下国海证券及其员工对使用本次会议信息或内容所引发的任何直接或间接损失概不负责市场有风险投资需谨慎 各位投资者早上好我是博海深陷研究所产业团队吴易今天我会先给大家介绍一下豆包以字节的AI的一些现状然后对豆包这个产品做一个测评然后最后聊一些相关的投资的方向以及标记豆包现在已经成为用户最多的初次AI产品在11月的全球热火排行榜上豆包2BP的MAU达到了5998万这是仅次于OpenAI的Jab TVT位列全球第二 从2023年8月邀请测试以来,用户数目猛增,然后应用推动效果是很不错的。整个字节持续对于AI的投入,明年预计资本开支也会大幅地增长,然后在AI领域深度布局,研发团队发货系找到语言、图片、音乐以及视频模型,比如XR Dance。 然后呢FLOW在这个助手工具社交等方面有一定的布局那白天的resea ...