"特高压+出海"点亮未来，电网投资机会如何？20241127 摘要 • 恒生 A 股电网设备指数 ETF(561,380)跟踪恒生 A 股电网设备指数，包含 100 家 A 股电网设备相关上市公司，权重股包括国电南瑞、特变电工等龙 头企业，涵盖变压器、换流阀等全产业链。 • 中国特高压技术全球领先，是清洁能源发展关键支撑，十四五期间规划建 设 455GW 风光大基地，将显著拉动特高压需求，带来投资增长。 • 新能源消纳需求增长驱动电网设备市场扩张，特高压直流技术成为风光大 基地建设重要支撑，十四五期间特高压直流投资预计比十三五增加约 1,000 亿元。 • 全球能源转型为中国电网设备出海提供机遇，欧美国家存量电网替换和新 兴市场基础设施建设需求旺盛，中国企业有望受益。 • 截至 2024 年 11 月 21 日，电网设备行业 PE 估值约 22 倍，处于中等水平， 未来随着特高压建设推进和海外市场拓展，估值有望进一步提升。 • 国泰基金管理公司在 ETF 领域经验丰富，规模领先，产品种类丰富，拟任 基金经理吴忠浩拥有丰富的量化管理经验，提供线上线下两种认购模式。 • 电能发输配用环节涵盖发电、输电、配电及用户 ...

自动驾驶专题报告解读 - 商业化奇点临近，高级别自动驾驶加速驶来 20241126 摘要 • 中国汽车行业正进入智能化超级周期，新能源汽车渗透率已达 50%-55%， 未来将重点发展 AI 赋能的自动驾驶技术。 • 自动驾驶技术改变了整车厂商的商业模式，具备高级别自动驾驶能力的车 企将占据更大市场份额，例如华为、小鹏、理想等。 • 高级自动驾驶(L4 级)市场空间巨大，2030 年和 2040 年国内市场空间分别 达 0.3 万亿和 1.2 万亿人民币，To B 场景(矿山、港口)技术突破更快， 部分公司已实现盈利。 • 特斯拉、小鹏等主机厂在算法、数据和量产能力方面具有优势，经纬恒润 等公司在特定场景(港口)也展现出盈利能力。 • 自动驾驶技术发展路径为先封闭后开放、先载货后载人，目前在矿山、港 口等封闭场景已实现降本增效，在乘用车领域高阶自动驾驶渗透率提升显 著。 • 自动驾驶技术在不同领域应用情况差异较大，To C 市场潜力巨大但技术 仍需打磨，To G 市场依赖政府项目，物流快递领域市场空间巨大，预计 2030 年达 3,000 亿人民币。 • 实现自动驾驶盈利需提升运营效率、降低成本，并扩大车辆投放 ...

"谷子经济"二次元供需双向破壁——策略、传媒、社服、零售联合电话会议 20241126 摘要 • 中国泛二次元用户规模达 4.6 亿，2023 年周边衍生市场规模达 1,024 亿 元，同比增长 37.6%，远超内容市场增速，展现巨大市场潜力。 • 二次元经济从小众走向大众，内容产业与周边衍生产业双向驱动，高增速、 高利润率及文化认同感使其成为资本市场新兴热点。 • 新一代消费者的消费偏好、对 IP 的认同感、社交需求以及疫情影响下对 精神慰藉的需求共同推动了二次元经济的快速发展。 • 拥有自有 IP 的公司通过商品积累用户，并通过授权拓展衍生品市场，供 需两旺，推动二次元经济持续增长。 • 传媒行业 IT 产业链上游、中游、下游公司积极切入授权领域，拓展实物 商品，推动行业扩容，未来发展前景广阔。 • 值得关注的公司包括：上游的六人集团、中文在线、掌阅科技；中游的上 海电影、奥飞娱乐、芒果超媒；下游的心动公司、完美世界、腾讯、网易 等。 • 未来传媒行业发展方向：围绕核心 IP 进行商业化扩展，结合新技术提升 产品附加值，布局周边产品及交易平台，挖掘用户情绪价值。 Q&A 如何看待二次元经济的发展及其对消费 ...

算力辰岁腾飞，自主可控已年奋搏 20241127 摘要 • 全球人工智能产业蓬勃发展，尤其以 ChatGPT 为代表的应用带动产业链公 司业绩和股价显著增长，未来投资重点将转向端侧和应用端。 • 地缘政治紧张局势加剧了自主可控的重要性，中国在高端科技领域取得显 著进展，自主可控将带来独特的增量投资机会，预计未来 3-5 年人工智能 将成为全球电子产业核心驱动力。 • 9 月 24 日以来，电子板块随大盘整体上涨，自主可控链条表现尤为强劲， 但 11 月中旬后出现回调，主要由于短期涨幅过快、市场情绪降温以及地 缘政治不确定性等因素影响，但行业基本面依然健康。 • AI 算力投资是否过剩取决于杀手级应用的出现及良性循环的形成，目前 大厂的资本开支更多是预防性自保行为，未来 1-2 年爆款应用的出现与否 至关重要。 • 英伟达在 AI 芯片领域占据主导地位，但谷歌、亚马逊等头部企业正加大 自研芯片投入，以降低对英伟达的依赖，未来自研芯片份额预计将显著增 加，但短期内难以超越英伟达。 • 国内 AI 芯片企业发展迅速，但在研发投入和软件生态建设方面与国际巨 头仍存在差距，自主可控是核心战略，政府和产业对国产化支持力度 ...

"液冷加速度"系列 - 趋势篇：三大指标推动液冷加速渗透 20241127 摘要 • 近年来，GPU 芯片功耗大幅提升，例如 H200 功耗达 700 瓦，D200 甚至达 1,000 瓦，远超传统 CPU，导致单机柜功耗激增，对数据中心建设带来巨 大挑战。 • 高性能 GPU 服务器功耗显著增加，例如 H100 服务器功耗达 10.2 千瓦，B200 超过 14 千瓦，传统风冷机柜已无法满足需求，20 千瓦成为风冷和液冷的 分界线。 • PUE 指标是数据中心绿色低碳发展的重要指标，国家政策要求新建大型数 据中心 PUE 降至 1.25 以内，而液冷技术能有效降低 PUE 至 1.2 以下，满 足政策要求。 • 液冷技术在资本支出方面具有优势，虽然初期散热系统成本增加，但电器、 装修及土建成本降低，单位 IT 千瓦成本下降，且更容易获得政策审批。 • 液冷技术在运行成本方面也更具优势，其 OPEX 显著低于风冷，综合 TCO 分析显示，板式液冷在单机柜 30 千瓦项目中优势明显，浸没式液冷在使 用国产氟化液时与风冷持平。 • 液冷技术渗透加速主要源于三个因素：高性能 GPU 带来的高功耗需求；国 家绿色低碳 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus is on the automotive industry, specifically the intelligent driving sector, which is entering a new super cycle. The penetration rate of intelligent driving technology in China has increased from 2% to 4%, and is projected to reach 50-55% by the second half of 2024, indicating over a tenfold growth in penetration rate [1][2][3]. Key Insights and Arguments - **Technological Advancements**: Tesla's recent developments, including the CyberCat and Optimus AI, mark significant progress towards fully autonomous driving and RoboTaxi operations. The upcoming FSB version V13 shows substantial improvements over V12, particularly in mileage and system capabilities [2][3]. - **Consumer Adoption**: Chinese consumers are increasingly willing to pay for advanced autonomous driving features, as seen with brands like Huawei, Xiaopeng, and Li Auto. This willingness indicates a shift towards new business models and brand establishment in the automotive sector [3][4]. - **Market Potential**: The market for autonomous driving is expected to reach between 0.3 trillion to 1.2 trillion yuan by 2040, with significant growth anticipated by 2025 due to technological breakthroughs and evolving business models [6][10]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Companies like Tesla and Xiaopeng are highlighted as strong investment opportunities due to their leading positions in algorithm development, data processing, and production capabilities [7][8]. Additional Important Points - **L4 Level Focus**: The report emphasizes the importance of L4 level autonomous driving, with a focus on commercial applications in various environments, including urban and industrial settings. The transition from L2 to L4 is seen as critical for future growth [4][28]. - **Operational Efficiency**: Companies are achieving significant operational efficiencies, with some reporting a 20% increase in order volumes year-over-year. The focus on reducing costs and improving service efficiency is driving growth in the sector [11][12][27]. - **Regulatory Environment**: The development of autonomous driving technology is influenced by regulatory frameworks, which are evolving to accommodate advancements in technology. Companies must navigate these regulations to achieve operational success [13][30]. - **Sector-Specific Applications**: The report discusses various applications of autonomous technology in sectors such as mining and port operations, where automation is being rapidly adopted due to safety and efficiency concerns [18][19][24]. Conclusion - The intelligent driving sector is poised for significant growth, driven by technological advancements, consumer adoption, and evolving business models. Investment in leading companies within this space is recommended, as they are well-positioned to capitalize on the upcoming market opportunities. The transition to higher levels of automation, particularly L4, will be crucial for the industry's future trajectory [28][29].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the credit bond market, particularly focusing on the municipal investment (城投) sector and perpetual bonds (二永债) [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Credit Bond Market Growth**: As of October 2023, the total outstanding credit bonds reached 28.77 trillion yuan, reflecting a 4.96% increase from 27.41 trillion yuan in the same period of 2022 [2]. 2. **Shift in Bond Supply**: Industrial bonds have overtaken municipal investment bonds as the main source of credit bond supply due to tightened financing conditions in the municipal sector [2]. 3. **Financial Bonds Supply**: The outstanding amount of financial bonds decreased by 4.66% year-on-year to 11.1 trillion yuan, with issuance down by 19.15% compared to the previous year [3]. 4. **Municipal Investment Sector Adjustment**: The municipal investment sector is adapting to a new development model, with expectations of strict regulatory oversight continuing into 2025 [4]. 5. **Regional Financing Disparities**: Traditional financing provinces like Jiangsu and Zhejiang have seen significant reductions in bond issuance, indicating a shift in funding dynamics [5]. 6. **Secondary Market Performance**: The municipal investment sector's secondary market showed a U-shaped trend in credit spreads, with a notable recovery in yields after initial declines [6][7]. 7. **Market Transformation Opportunities**: The call highlighted the potential for market-oriented transformations in municipal investment platforms, suggesting that successful transitions could lead to increased financing flexibility [8][9][10]. 8. **Credit Rating Adjustments**: The transformation process will involve a shift in credit rating perspectives, focusing more on individual enterprises rather than regional government capabilities [10]. 9. **Sectoral Performance Disparities**: The real estate, steel, and coal sectors exhibit significant differences in credit spread levels, with high-rated bonds showing lower spreads compared to lower-rated ones [14][15]. 10. **Investment Strategy Recommendations**: The call advised adopting a strategy focused on high-rated bonds with shorter durations to mitigate liquidity risks [16]. Additional Important Content - The call emphasized the importance of monitoring the evolving landscape of credit bonds, particularly in light of regulatory changes and market conditions [21]. - It was noted that the issuance of perpetual bonds is expected to remain stable, driven by banks' capital adequacy requirements [17][18]. - The liquidity of different bond types varies significantly, with higher-rated perpetual bonds showing better liquidity than lower-rated ones [19][20]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and data points discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the credit bond market.

第二个视角就是我们单个机柜的视角如果我们是先从芯片的角度去看其实从这几年的芯片推出的频率来看GPU的速度确实是越来越高频了以前比较高档的CPU的一颗功耗最高目前也就是不到400瓦但我们可以看到像H200已经是达到了700瓦的程度 那你像最新的这个D200呢,可能是达到了这个1000瓦的这么一个感染线线的一个程度,那我们根据最新的一个这个厂商他的一个实测的数据啊,那可能就是这个风冷它能够去给到的这个极限就是我的 一个U的这个机架的高度能够供应到一个2000瓦的一个散热量那如果说我1U的高度的散热量超过了2000瓦那我可能大概就要上瘾了这个可能是近期大家实测出来得到的一个数据可以给到大家做一个参考这个我们是从这个服务器以及芯片的角度去做思考的一个数据那第二个数据呢就是也是我们这个VP用在脚的这张图 我们讲到了单位机柜的功耗因为以前如果是通用的服务器我们两个CPU那里最多可能一台服务器也就是一千瓦就结束了那如果我们现在达到了这个GPU那我们就以这个最新的这个S100就是也是能够官方的查到这个数据了那它的一台服务器的一个功耗大概是达到了一个10.2千瓦那如果是这个B200的话那可能要达到一个14千瓦以上了 那相比于以 ...

各位今天的投资者朋友大家好我是绝商金属团队的金涛欢迎各位领导来到我们每天下午15点15的全球共济书一天今天我们来和各位领导聊一聊美洲的以灰石的这些项目首先我们来看一下北美的情况 本美目前在场的两座项目分别是中矿资源的TANGO以及在UNA的North American Vision或者我们简称NAL这个项目先来聊一下TANGO这个项目各位领导可能了解的更多一点 目前三口年克量级是8万吨的新矿体这样的一个水平对于它分离大概是在4000吨左右之前中国也做了一些破产的规划计划将这个原矿厂破到100万吨年克量这样的一个量级 但是因为这个价格的问题还是有一些往后去计演这个计划的目前这个项目是没有启动的一个规划可能在二六年我们可能会看到这个项目的进一步的 进展情况但是目前的参考还是维持一个18万吨的年处理量404千吨碳酸锂当量这样的一个水平那成本这边的参考其实成本还是偏高的三吨的新矿的成本大概是在700到800美元每吨再加上一个运费基本上到国内是要800到900美元一吨这样的一个水平折合成碳酸锂可能就要接近7万左右的一个 目前这个产能扩张是没有进一步去推进的一个最主要的原因 那我们可以看到TANKO这个项目其实也是目前来 ...

Key Points Industry or Company Involved - **M Foundation** - **Morgan Stanley Asia Limited** - **China Chief Economist,邢自强** Core Views and Arguments - **Economic Outlook** - **Slowing Economic Growth**: The report predicts a slowdown in economic growth over the next two years due to the impact of US tariffs and persistent deflationary pressures. - **Deflationary Pressure**: The report highlights the persistent deflationary pressure in China, exacerbated by factors such as overcapacity and low capacity utilization. - **Policy Stimulus**: The report suggests that the government may implement a third round of policy stimulus focused on the demand side to counteract the deflationary pressures. - **US Tariffs**: The report predicts that the US will gradually increase tariffs on Chinese imports, with the effective tariff rate reaching 26% by the end of 2025 and 36% by the end of 2026. - **Impact of Tariffs**: The report analyzes the potential impact of US tariffs on the Chinese economy, including the impact on GDP growth, inflation, and policy measures. - **Real Estate Market**: The report discusses the challenges facing the real estate market, including the need for adjustment to adapt to demographic changes and the ongoing adjustment process. - **Policy Framework**: The report notes that the policy framework remains supply-side focused, with a focus on industrial loans and infrastructure investment. - **Income Growth**: The report highlights the slowdown in income growth, particularly for low-income groups, and its impact on consumption. - **Debt Levels**: The report discusses the rising debt levels and the potential for further increases due to the deflationary environment. - **Fiscal Pressure**: The report notes the worsening fiscal pressure, with declining tax revenue and increased spending. - **Stock Market**: The report emphasizes the importance of breaking deflation to boost the stock market, drawing parallels with Japan's experience. - **Policy Measures**: The report discusses the potential policy measures, including the first round of debt substitution and the expected second and third rounds of policy stimulus. - **Reflation Path**: The report outlines the potential path to reflation, including the expected progress and challenges. - **New Three Major Projects**: The report proposes three major projects to break deflation, including real estate inventory reduction, social welfare reform, and fertility subsidies. - **Structural Opportunities and Challenges** - **Real Estate**: The report discusses the long-term demand for housing and the potential for growth in the real estate market. - **Population**: The report analyzes the demographic changes and their impact on the economy, highlighting the potential for labor quality improvement and industrial automation. - **Regulatory Reset**: The report discusses the potential investment opportunities in the wake of the regulatory reset, including social equity, national security, financial risk, and environmental risk. - **Urbanization 2.0**: The report discusses the potential for more digital, green, and market-oriented urbanization. - **Consumer Blueprint**: The report outlines the potential consumer trends and opportunities in the next few years. - **Global Trends** - **Technology**: The report discusses the rapid spread of AI technology and its potential impact on productivity. - **Decarbonization**: The report discusses the potential for clean power to surpass fossil fuel power generation by 2030. Other Important Content - **Data and Charts**: The report includes various data and charts to support its analysis, including GDP growth rates, inflation rates, trade data, and policy measures. - **Comparisons**: The report makes comparisons with other countries, such as Japan, to provide context and insights. - **Predictions**: The report includes predictions and forecasts for the future, based on the analysis and data presented in the report.