shuinu9870 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： CEEMEA Equity Research 28 November 2024 J P M O R G A N CEEMEA Petrochemicals Year ahead outlook: Dear Father Christmas - What I need to fix my sector shuinu9870 shuinu9870 | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **China Economics** sector, particularly the upcoming **Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC)** scheduled for December 12, 2023, which will set the economic priorities for 2025 [10][14]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **GDP Growth Target**: Policymakers are likely to maintain the "around 5%" target for real GDP growth in 2025, with the target for 2024 appearing achievable due to policy efforts since mid-year [10][14][15]. 2. **Inflation and Deflation**: Ending deflation is not expected to be a priority. The current policy system lacks a designated ministry for price stability, and the best outcome may be a focus on stabilizing overall price levels [15][17]. 3. **Reactive Policy Mode**: The policy shift observed since September is real but does not indicate a move towards a proactive policy mode. Policymakers are showing urgency to address economic slowdown but are unlikely to adopt a more aggressive stance [17][21]. 4. **External Uncertainties**: Elevated uncertainties regarding external factors, such as US tariffs, may limit clarity for policymakers. The CEWC is expected to highlight these risks without providing specific reaction plans [19][53]. 5. **Monetary Policy Constraints**: The supportive monetary policy stance is anticipated to continue, with expectations of 50 basis points rate cuts in 2025. The current net interest margin (NIM) is at an all-time low of 1.53%, which may constrain monetary policy [22][32]. 6. **Fiscal Policy Outlook**: A supportive fiscal policy tone is expected, with a projected general government deficit of approximately RMB 11.6 trillion for 2025, an increase from RMB 8.96 trillion in 2024. This could lead to a deficit exceeding 3% of GDP [33][34]. 7. **Consumer Stimulus Initiatives**: There is a consensus that fiscal stimulus will focus more on consumption in 2025, with potential areas for funding including trade-in programs, childbirth subsidies, and targeted cash transfers [37][38]. 8. **Property Market Support**: The housing policy aims to stabilize the market, with government buybacks seen as an effective tool to address excess supply. However, the balance between funding support and moral hazard remains a challenge [48][49]. 9. **Response to US Tariffs**: The CEWC is likely to reiterate the commitment to opening up and may respond symbolically to US tariffs, but no concrete plans are expected. The focus will remain on boosting domestic demand in light of external pressures [53][55]. Additional Important Insights - **Local Government Incentives**: The effectiveness of policy easing may depend on local governments' willingness to implement central directives, which has historically varied [20]. - **Economic Diplomacy**: The US tariff threats could reshape China's trade relations, potentially expanding trade negotiations with other partners [55]. - **Monitoring Future Developments**: Key areas to watch include the implementation of announced policies, the impact of monetary easing, and the effectiveness of consumption support measures as 2025 approaches [58][59]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding China's economic landscape as discussed in the conference call, highlighting the interplay between domestic policies and external challenges.

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry and Companies Involved - **Industry**: Banking and Property in China - **Companies Discussed**: - China Merchants Bank (CMB) - Ping An Bank (PAB) - China Overseas Land & Investment (COLI) - China Resources Land (CR Land) - China Resources Mixc Lifestyle Services - Poly Property Services - Futu Holdings Key Points and Arguments Banking Sector Insights - **Retail Sentiment and Mortgage Demand**: Banks reported resilient retail sentiment and mortgage demand, expecting better growth in fees and loans in 2025, particularly from retail contributions [10][11][19] - **NIM Contraction**: Net Interest Margin (NIM) contraction is expected to continue into 2025, although at a smaller magnitude than in 2024. One bank anticipates a 30 basis points (bps) cut in the 1-Year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) and a 40-50 bps cut in the 5-Year LPR in 2025 [10][11][19] - **Loan Growth**: Both CMB and PAB expect an acceleration in loan growth, particularly in the retail segment, which may offset the negative impact from NIM contraction. In 9M24, CMB and PAB reported NII growth of -3% and -21% respectively [11][19] - **Fee Income Recovery**: Fee income growth is anticipated to recover, driven by improved retail sentiment and easing of previous fee rate cuts. CMB and PAB saw fee income decline of 17% and 18% year-on-year in 9M24, but management expects recovery in 2025 [19][20] Property Sector Insights - **Property Destocking Challenges**: The property destocking program is progressing slowly, with banks indicating limited involvement from commercial banks in acquiring unsold inventory from developers [10][36][45] - **Mortgage Trends**: Mortgage loan growth is recovering, with average monthly new mortgages increasing from RMB 1.7 billion in 1H24 to RMB 2.1 billion in 2H24. The mortgage rate in Guangzhou has stabilized at 3.0% [48][49] - **Asset Quality**: CMB expects corporate NPL ratios to remain stable or slightly decline in 2025, while retail NPL formation may be higher but with a stable ratio. PAB anticipates lower overall credit costs in 2025 due to derisking efforts [31][32][50] Investment Recommendations - **Banking Preferences**: J.P. Morgan prefers A-share banks over H-share banks, favoring CMB-A for its higher certainty on capital returns and potential dividend upside [10][11] - **Property Stocks**: For the property sector, J.P. Morgan suggests accumulating shares of CR Land, COLI, CR Mixc, and Poly PS on dips, as share prices are expected to underperform in the near term until new policy expectations are revived [10][11] Other Important Insights - **Client Risk Appetite**: Both CMB and PAB have observed improvements in client risk appetite, with clients reallocating investments from wealth management products into equity funds [21] - **New Loan Products**: PAB is launching new retail loan products targeting medium-risk clients to replace high-risk XinYiDai loans, which are being phased out [22][31] - **Market Sentiment**: Experts express a positive outlook for Shenzhen's property market, while being cautious about low-tier cities due to high inventory and weak demand [61][62] This summary encapsulates the key insights and trends discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future expectations for the banking and property sectors in China.

shuinu9870 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 27 Nov 2024 05:21:48 ET │ 10 pages China Hardware China Smartphone Oct Sell-in Shipments -1% YoY (+18% MoM) shuinu9870 CITI'S TAKE Per CAICT, China smartphone sell-in shipments declined 1% YoY to 27.9mn in Oct-24 (vs. -26% YoY in Sep-24), bringing YTD shipments to 234mn (+6% YoY) vs. sell-out of +2%. We noted sequential improvemen ...

shuinu9870 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： Technology shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： Asia Pacific Equity Research 27 November 2024 J P M O R G A N This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redi ...

shuinu9870 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 shuinu9870 Neutral Price (26 Nov 24 16:10) HK$77.05 Target price HK$70.80 Expected share price return -8.1% Expected dividend yield 4.1% Expected total return -4.0% Market Cap HK$217,992M US$28,009M 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 26 Nov 2024 21:58:11 ET │ 11 pages Anta Sports Products (2020.HK) Issue of €1.5bn of new 5-year zero-coupon CBs, albeit Rmb32bn+ of net cash shuinu9870 CIT ...

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的权利市场有风险投资趋紧振各位投资者大家早上好欢迎收看我们本周的周四早盘测我是华盛顿交易吴非凡今天我们汇报的主要内容还是重点强调一下我们继续在交易环境当中建议重点聚焦在内需生收器方向主要是 呃这个三个内容一是这个航空第二呢顺风第三呢这个内贸捷运那这是我们最近重点关注的这个三个这个方向那首先对于航空因为航空是这个经典顺周期的这样一个品种而是内顺周期品种那这个近期整个市场表现当中大家关注也比较多那这也是我们在这个年度策略当中那第一个放在场面就是这个航空那为什么那我觉得是有几个因素在近期他走强有几个因素包括在所有内需顺周期方向当中 航空在近期的表现应该说是这个耗钱的那首先丁老师认为就是接下来要过特别关注的那应该市场比较关注12月份那整个接下来这个中央的这个经费当中那整个的一些这个表述那包括财政是否能发力那继续的发力因为我们是已经是这个一揽子的政策那不断在路上那从历史上经验来看的话就我们之前发过报告就是关于这个08到10年整个经验 那08-10那在我们这个一揽子的这个经济实习计划之后应该说我们觉得是看到一个现象和特征就他对整个实体的这个传导大概需要这个两到三个月的时间但对于航空他是一个及时反应因为对航空的这个首先我们 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the **liquid cooling industry** and its integration with **GPU** and **CPU** technologies, highlighting the roles of major players like **NVIDIA** and **Huawei** in the market [1][2]. Key Players and Their Roles - **NVIDIA** is set to launch its first official liquid cooling product, the **GV200**, which is expected to significantly increase shipments in the coming year [1]. - **Huawei** has been more proactive in liquid cooling solutions, having introduced its first solution in 2020 and actively collaborating with partners for further development [1]. - **Intel** plays a crucial role in promoting standardization within the liquid cooling supply chain, addressing compatibility issues that currently hinder the industry [2]. Market Demand and Segmentation - The demand for chips can be segmented into two main categories: **telecom operators** and large internet companies like **ByteDance**. The telecom sector has shown strong demand, as evidenced by the release of a liquid cooling white paper in 2022 [3]. - Internet giants are also increasingly adopting liquid cooling in their general servers, indicating a growing trend in the industry [4]. Investment Opportunities - Companies that align with the three key players—**Huawei**, **telecom operators**, and proactive internet companies—are likely to see better performance and investment returns [5]. - Domestic **IDC** firms are expanding into Southeast Asia, presenting additional opportunities for local cooling solution providers [6]. Technology and Market Trends - The liquid cooling technology is still in its early stages, providing new opportunities for domestic manufacturers to enter the market, especially as traditional air cooling solutions are more established [7]. - The **liquid cooling plate** segment is highlighted as a significant area for investment, accounting for approximately **30%** of the total cooling solution market, with a stable long-term growth outlook [8]. - The **CDU and manifold** segments are expected to show clear performance improvements in 2024, particularly for leading domestic players [9]. Future Outlook - The period from **2022 to 2024** is viewed as a critical phase for the liquid cooling industry, transitioning from initial development to broader market adoption [10]. - Companies with strong relationships with telecom operators and proactive internet firms are positioned to achieve better performance [11]. - The Southeast Asian market is identified as a key area for expansion, with potential long-term opportunities in the U.S. market as well [11]. Conclusion - The conference call emphasizes the importance of collaboration among key industry players and the potential for growth in the liquid cooling market, particularly as new technologies are adopted and standardized [12].

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