2025 信用债年度策略 - 存量时代，相机抉择 20241127 摘要 • 2024 年信用债市场规模达 28.7 万亿元，较 2023 年增长 4.96%，产业债成 为供给主力，发行规模同比增长 5.56%，净融资额达 1.63 万亿元。 • 城投债市场受政策收紧影响，存量余额同比减少 4.66%，发行量同比减少 19.15%，净融资额为负，未来发债仍将受政策高压监管。 • 2024 年城投债评级集中于中高等级，发行主体行业集中在建筑装饰、交 通运输等领域，地域分布不均，仅少数省市净融资额为正。 • 城投债信用利差呈现 U 型走势，目前已回调至 23 年末水平，中转端和高 评级仍是 2025 年优选。未来城投平台市场化转型机遇在于释放融资限制， 优化主营业务，建立新视角。 • 压降城投平台数量有助于地方政府加强债务监管，提升债务透明度，优化 融资环境，修复地方政府资产负债表。 • 城投平台主营业务涵盖八大类，转型路径包括经营类、产业控股和投资类、 园区开发运营类，多维度发展成为城市综合服务供应商。 • 2024 年产业债市场供给稳定，存量余额同比增长 8.29%，发行量同比增长 10.82%，净融资额大幅 ...

关税出招，出口链影响几何 20241126 摘要 • 特朗普政府对华加征关税对中国家电出口影响有限，因中国家电在新兴市 场（南美、欧洲、亚洲和非洲）需求强劲增长，且美国市场占比下降，整 体出口仍保持中位数增长。 • 中国在家电全球供应链中占据主导地位，尤其在上游核心部件（如压缩机） 产能方面，这使得美国难以完全摆脱对中国产品的依赖，即使尝试本土生 产或通过其他国家转口。 • 美国本土家电产能持续萎缩，对进口依赖度高，即使部分进口来源转向东 南亚和墨西哥，其供应链仍主要依赖中国，这增强了中国家电企业的竞争 优势。 • 中美贸易关系的不确定性将持续存在，但新兴市场需求的强劲增长将成为 中国家电出口的主要驱动力，抵消关税影响，预计未来出口仍将保持稳定 增长。 • 中国家电企业通过加强新兴市场布局、提升自主品牌影响力（如美的的 OBM 战略）、以及强大的成本传递能力来应对关税和全球产业链变化，增 强盈利能力。 • 安克创新、春风动力和巨星科技等公司通过多元化布局、产能转移、成本 控制和品牌优势等策略有效应对关税加征，保持稳定增长，展现出较强的 抗风险能力。 • 美国新政对跨境电商影响显著，但通过半托管模式、供应链转移 ...

光伏：基本面预期即将兑现，看好后续光伏价格上行 20241127 摘要 • 12 月份光伏产业链多晶硅排产预计降至 8.5 万吨，低于市场预期，但仍 能支撑下游组件需求约 40GW，主要原因是四川和云南地区枯水期来临， 电价上涨导致减产。 • 12 月份组件排产预计在 45GW 左右，较 11 月份减少 5GW；硅片排产约 40GW， 与 11 月份持平；电池片排产预计降至 45GW。 • 光伏产业链各环节库存显著下降，多晶硅、硅片和电池片均积极去库存， 这预示着行业去库周期良好，并可能带动价格上涨。 • 近期光伏组件价格回暖，招标市场中标价格普遍高于 0.68 元/瓦，部分超 过 0.7 元/瓦；出口市场价格也有积极影响，电池片价格也呈现上涨趋势。 • 电池片价格已进入上涨周期，预计本周将进一步提升至 0.28 元/瓦，一线 厂商报价维持在 0.64~0.71 元/瓦之间。 • 基于供给侧改革和去库周期，未来光伏产业链价格有望上行，建议配置光 伏板块相关标的，优先推荐电池片和组件环节，并关注多晶硅相关企业如 协鑫和通威等。 • 建议关注核心标的新奥、君达等，这些企业具备较好的盈利改善预期。 Q&A 请介绍一 ...

Summary of Conference Call Company and Industry - The conference call involved **Yinglian Co., Ltd.**, a leading company in the **composite materials** industry, particularly focusing on **composite aluminum and copper foils** for battery applications. The company is the only professional tire cover manufacturer listed on the A-share market in China [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Recent Orders Announcement**: Yinglian announced a significant order for composite materials related to the production of **power battery composite flow fluids**. This order is a result of ongoing collaboration with a South Korean lithium battery manufacturer, **UNF**, establishing a strategic partnership for the next three years [1][3]. 2. **Investment and Production Capacity**: The company plans to invest **3.089 billion yuan** in a new facility in **Jiangsu Gaoyou**, which will include **134 production lines** for composite copper foils and **10 lines** for composite aluminum foils, aiming for a production capacity of **1 billion bottles** post-construction [2][4]. 3. **Technological Advancements**: Yinglian has been focusing on technological improvements and has successfully completed multiple tests with clients, leading to the establishment of a strategic cooperation with UNF. This partnership is expected to enhance the synergy between the composite fluid industry and battery applications [3][4]. 4. **Market Demand and Pricing**: The current pricing for composite aluminum foil ranges from **7 to 11 yuan** per unit, while composite copper foil is priced between **5 to 8 yuan**. The company aims to improve profit margins through cost reduction strategies as production scales up [9][10]. 5. **Product Features and Safety**: The composite aluminum foil has been highlighted for its safety features, lightweight properties, and thinness, making it suitable for various applications, including **3C batteries** and small power devices. The company has received positive feedback from clients regarding these attributes [11][12]. 6. **Future Production Plans**: Yinglian is preparing for future production expansions based on customer orders and has established a joint research institute with **Japan's Aifuka** to enhance production capabilities and product performance [8][18]. 7. **Market Trends and Competition**: The company is aware of the competitive landscape, particularly with the advent of solid-state batteries, and is actively engaging with clients to adapt to market changes. The focus remains on reducing costs and improving energy density for broader application [19][30]. 8. **Client Relationships**: Yinglian has established strong relationships with major clients, including **Samsung** and **SK**, which are crucial for the company's growth and market penetration [5][6]. Other Important but Overlooked Content - The company is currently managing **26 projects** across various sectors, including consumer, power, and energy storage applications, indicating a diversified approach to market expansion [17]. - The production speed for composite materials is being optimized, with current speeds at **16 meters** for aluminum and **5 to 10 meters** for copper, with plans to increase these rates [21]. - The company is also focusing on the development of new welding technologies in collaboration with suppliers to enhance product quality and reduce costs [28]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call, highlighting Yinglian's strategic initiatives, market positioning, and future outlook in the composite materials industry.

谷子经济专家：千亿蓝海市场，把握 IP 衍生赛道机会 20241126 摘要 • 二次元衍生品市场规模已超千亿元，且呈现爆发式增长态势，预计 2024 年增速将远超 2023 年。 • 徽章占据二次元衍生品市场半壁江山，卡牌等纸片类产品占比约 30%，其 余品类占比 20%。产品多为平面设计，客单价相对较低。 • 谷子店数量至少 2000 家以上，且仍在快速扩张，一线城市热门商圈月销 售额可达 80 万元，净利润率约 18%-20%。 • 谷子店运营模式与品牌连锁店差异显著，前者类似买手店，毛利率较低； 后者拥有完整产业链，毛利率较高。消费者更注重产品质量和更新速度， 而非品牌忠诚度。 • 中国谷子消费群体主要集中在 12-22 岁，而日本则覆盖全年龄段。中国市 场未成年人占比约 80%，大学生主要通过线上渠道购买。 • 日股在市场占比约 30%-40%，定价策略灵活，无统一标准零售价；国产 IP 二次创作空间相对较大，中游企业可通过性价比和二次创作提升竞争力。 • 未来市场竞争的关键在于选品能力和产品更新速度，头部品牌和全产业链 企业将占据优势，高频率的新品更新和库存控制至关重要。 Q&A 二次元衍生品市场 ...

Summary of the Conference Call on the Furniture National Subsidy Policy Industry Overview - The furniture national subsidy policy has been implemented since July, accelerating in October, significantly improving sales data in the furniture industry, indicating a turning point in the industry's fundamentals [1][2] - The expected subsidy amount for furniture by the end of the year is approximately 10 billion, potentially reaching 30-40 billion next year, which could drive terminal sales of 220-300 billion, contributing 6-13 percentage points to industry growth [1][12][13] Key Points and Arguments - The personal subsidy cap for furniture has been raised to 20,000-30,000 yuan, effectively stimulating consumer demand and increasing market concentration, benefiting leading companies significantly [1][4] - Three innovative models are driving the implementation of the subsidy policy: provincial policy subsidies, collaborations with custom brands, and partnerships with e-commerce platforms [1][6] - Despite weak demand for new homes, the second-hand housing market and renovation of existing homes are growing, providing new growth points for the furniture industry, with a 14% year-on-year increase in second-hand home sales in October [1][9] Impact on Leading Companies - Leading companies such as Mousse, Oppein, and Sophia, which have a high proportion of domestic retail sales, are expected to benefit from the national subsidy policy, with growth projections of 5%-10%, and potentially exceeding 10% [1][14][15] - The subsidy policy is expected to improve the competitive landscape, as brands that do not participate in the subsidy will face disadvantages [5] Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - The subsidy policy has led to a significant increase in consumer preference for subsidized brands, enhancing market concentration [5] - The furniture demand structure is shifting, with new homes expected to decline by 15-20% next year, while second-hand homes may see growth between 0-20% [9][11] Future Expectations - The furniture industry has shown strong performance since October, with retail sales of home-related products increasing by 17% year-on-year, indicating the positive effects of the subsidy policy [10] - The overall market sentiment is optimistic, with expectations of continued growth driven by the subsidy policy and improvements in the real estate market [10][16] Recommendations for Investors - Focus on companies with high domestic retail exposure, such as Mousse, Oppein, and Sophia, as well as those with engineering and export business exposure like Zhibang and Jinpai [15] - The furniture sector is expected to recover from its low point, with each market adjustment presenting a good opportunity for investment [16]

Key Points Industry/Company Involved - **Industry**: U.S. economy, fiscal policy, trade policy - **Company**: None specified Core Views and Arguments - **Nomination of Beasent as Treasury Secretary**: - Beasent's appointment as Treasury Secretary is welcomed by the market, with bond yields falling and the dollar declining, indicating market confidence in his ability to control the deficit. - Beasent's policy proposals align with the Republican Party's small-government philosophy, including tax cuts, deregulation, and deficit control, but he takes a moderate stance on tariffs. - His primary task is to push for tax cuts, but the space for further tax cuts is limited, and the actual impact on economic growth may be less significant than expected. - The impact of tax cuts on different industries varies, with electronics, information technology, and other industries benefiting significantly, while traditional industries such as autos and metals benefit less. - The passage and implementation of the tax cut bill require time, and it is expected to take effect in the third and fourth quarters of next year. - Beasent's main tasks include implementing tax cuts, coordinating with the relaxation of regulations, and controlling the fiscal deficit. - Controlling the fiscal deficit is challenging, with the projected fiscal deficit reaching about 7.1% next year. - Beasent takes a moderate stance on trade policy, supporting additional tariffs on China but not being an outright hawk. - The direction of the trade war depends on the appointment of the trade representative, and new tariffs may be implemented in the third quarter of next year, but the intensity may be lower than expected. - **Impact of Tax Cuts**: - The impact of tax cuts on different industries varies, with electronics, information technology, and other industries benefiting significantly, while traditional industries such as autos and metals benefit less. - The passage and implementation of the tax cut bill require time, and it is expected to take effect in the third and fourth quarters of next year. - **Trade Policy**: - Beasent takes a moderate stance on trade policy, supporting additional tariffs on China but not being an outright hawk. - The direction of the trade war depends on the appointment of the trade representative, and new tariffs may be implemented in the third quarter of next year, but the intensity may be lower than expected. - **Fiscal Deficit**: - The projected fiscal deficit for next year is about 7.1%, mainly due to the reduction in corporate tax rates. - Reducing the fiscal deficit is challenging, as about 60% of U.S. spending is mandatory spending, including social security, healthcare, and interest payments. - **Trade War with China**: - The trade war with China is expected to continue in the short term, with new tariffs potentially implemented in the third quarter of next year. - The impact of the trade war on the U.S. economy is expected to be negative, with a drag of about 0.4 percentage points on economic growth. - **Inflation**: - The three major policies (immigration, tariffs, and tax cuts) have inflationary effects, with the largest impact from a 10% global tariff, followed by a 60% tariff on China, and immigration removal. - The inflationary effect of tax cuts is the lowest due to the limited size of the tax cut next year. Other Important Content - **Market Reaction**: - The market has welcomed Beasent's appointment as Treasury Secretary, with bond yields falling and the dollar declining. - **Challenges Facing Beasent**: - Beasent faces challenges in implementing tax cuts, controlling the fiscal deficit, and relaxing regulations. - **Trade Negotiations**: - The direction of the trade war with China depends on the appointment of the trade representative. - **Impact on the U.S. Economy**: - The impact of the trade war on the U.S. economy is expected to be negative, with a drag of about 0.4 percentage points on economic growth. - **Inflation**: - The three major policies (immigration, tariffs, and tax cuts) have inflationary effects, with the largest impact from a 10% global tariff, followed by a 60% tariff on China, and immigration removal.

Summary of Lithium Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The lithium carbonate industry is characterized by strong cyclicality and is currently at the tail end of its cycle, experiencing significant price volatility driven by supply-demand dynamics, policies, and the electric vehicle (EV) market [1][2] - The global supply of lithium carbonate is approximately 1-1.2 million tons, which is relatively small compared to other non-ferrous metals like electrolytic aluminum (70 million tons) and copper (2-2.8 million tons) [2] Key Drivers of Demand - The main drivers of lithium carbonate demand growth since 2021 include the robust growth of the EV market, particularly in China, and the rapid development of the energy storage industry [1][4] - The demand surge is supported by product enhancements and policy backing, with domestic brands like BYD, NIO, and Xpeng, as well as Tesla, significantly improving their product offerings [4] Price Volatility and Historical Trends - Lithium carbonate prices have experienced dramatic fluctuations from 2020 to 2023, influenced by subsidy policy changes, inventory destocking, and supply chain disruptions [1][6] - Prices peaked at around 180,000 RMB/ton during the 2015-2019 period due to increased EV sales driven by subsidies, then fell to approximately 40,000 RMB/ton by the end of 2020 as supply increased and demand decreased [3] Future Market Trends - Demand for lithium carbonate is expected to continue growing in the coming years, but new mining projects will alleviate supply constraints, leading to ongoing price volatility [5] - The current price of lithium carbonate is around 80,000 RMB/ton, with expectations of fluctuations between 70,000 and 100,000 RMB/ton in the near future [28] Investment Opportunities - Leading companies in the lithium sector, such as Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium, have seen their stock prices drop by 70-80% from their peaks, indicating potential for upward valuation adjustments [8][9] - The relationship between lithium prices and stock prices is strong, but market expectations also play a crucial role in stock performance [7] Production and Cost Dynamics - There is significant cost disparity among global lithium projects, with high-cost projects facing production cuts or shutdowns, while low-cost projects in Brazil are performing well [1][13] - The production costs of various projects vary, with some Australian projects facing high costs that may lead to reduced output [13][25] Challenges in Mining Development - Mining development in regions like Sichuan faces challenges such as high altitude and difficulties in tailings storage, leading to slower project approvals [15] - The Yichun region is expected to see reduced production due to resource depletion and company shutdowns [16] Global Supply Outlook - Future global lithium supply is expected to remain uncertain, with some Australian projects maintaining or slightly reducing output, while Brazilian projects are anticipated to expand due to lower costs [14][27] - The overall supply situation is complicated by the entry of African mines, which may delay the supply-demand balance [25] Policy Impacts - The reduction of export tax rebates from 13% to 9% will impact industry profits but is not expected to significantly affect the overall market due to China's strong position in the battery and energy storage sectors [29] Conclusion - The lithium industry is at a critical juncture, with potential investment opportunities arising from current market conditions and the expected recovery in demand, particularly in the EV and energy storage sectors. Continuous monitoring of supply developments and market dynamics will be essential for stakeholders.

供给梳理 - 美洲辉石篇 20241127 摘要 • 北美锂辉石项目进展缓慢，中矿资源 Tankle 项目产能扩张计划受价格影 响推迟，Seona 旗下 NAL 项目成本高企，盈利能力堪忧，未来需依赖成本 优化提升竞争力。 • 南美锂辉石项目发展前景较好，Sigma Lithium 的 Grota do Cirilo 项目 成本优势显著，产能扩张计划稳步推进；AMG 的 Liqhium 项目成本也较低， 但产量相对较小。 • 全球锂辉石供应持续收缩，过去两年减产约 40 万吨，多个项目关停加剧 供应紧张局面，这将成为未来价格上涨的主要驱动力。 • 新能源汽车市场需求强劲，政策支持、碳排放罚款和关税等因素将推动订 单释放，需求端将支撑锂价上涨。 • 未来锂价走势将主要由供给端收缩决定方向，需求端决定上涨幅度，投资 者需密切关注供给收缩公告和需求订单排产情况。 • 铝板块发展逻辑与锂类似，供给收缩和需求增长共同驱动价格上涨，投资 者应关注供给收缩公告和需求订单落实情况。 • 建议投资者关注南美锂辉石项目，特别是 Sigma Lithium 和 AMG 的项目， 以及铝板块的投资机会，密切关注供需动态，把握市场机遇 ...

如看看待关税壁垒对家电的影响？20241127 摘要 • 2024 年 1 月，特朗普政府计划对中国商品加征 10%的关税，直接影响中国 家电出口美国。历史数据显示，2018-2019 年，美国已对部分中国家电产 品加征高达 25%的关税，部分产品存在关税豁免。 • 面对关税挑战，中国家电企业通过调整产能布局（如将部分产能转移至海 外）、提升产品附加值和技术含量等方式来应对，部分企业已成功降低对 美国市场的依赖。 • 美国对不同类型家电产品实施了不同的关税政策，洗衣机、智能设备压缩 机、冰箱、空调零部件等关税税率各不相同，小型家电关税税率也曾从 0%提高到 25%。未来进一步提高关税的可能性存在，但需密切关注政策变 化。 • 历史数据显示，中国家电企业具备一定成本转嫁能力，通过价格调整、供 应链优化和开拓其他国际市场等方式，在一定程度上消化了关税带来的成 本压力，大型家电企业外销毛利率未受显著影响。 • 小家电企业受关税影响较为明显，大型白电和黑电企业则通过价格上涨、 产品结构优化等手段有效消化了关税影响。2018 年关税加征后，中国家 电板块估值出现波动，但随后有所修复。 • 中国家电企业积极布局海外市场， ...