Investment Rating - The report assigns a Neutral rating to HP Inc. (HPQ) with a 12-month target price of $27, indicating a downside potential of 4.7% from the current price of $28.34 [11][15]. Core Insights - HPQ's F2Q25 earnings per share (EPS) of $0.71 missed Goldman Sachs (GS) estimates of $0.82 and consensus of $0.80, while revenue of $13.2 billion was largely in line with estimates [2][3]. - The company lowered its guidance for F2025 EPS to $3.00-$3.30 from a previous range of $3.45-$3.75, reflecting moderated demand and the impact of tariffs [2][7]. - The outlook for the PC industry has been adjusted to low single-digit percentage (LSD%) unit growth year-over-year, down from mid-single-digit percentage (MSD%) growth previously expected [7][13]. Financial Performance - HPQ's F2Q25 revenue of $13,220 million was slightly below GS estimates of $13,241 million but above consensus of $13,132 million, showing a year-over-year increase of 3% [8][10]. - The Personal Systems Group revenue was $9,024 million, exceeding GS estimates, with a 6% year-over-year increase in units [5][10]. - Printing revenue was $4,181 million, which fell short of GS estimates and consensus, with total units up 1% [5][10]. Margin Analysis - The non-GAAP operating income for F2Q25 was $961 million, missing GS estimates of $1,076 million, with a margin of 7.3% [9][10]. - Personal Systems Group EBIT margins were reported at 4.5%, significantly below the GS estimate of 5.7% [9][10]. - Printing EBIT margins improved to 19.5%, slightly above GS estimates of 19.0% [9][10]. Future Guidance - For F3Q25, HPQ provided guidance for GAAP diluted EPS of $0.57-$0.69 and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $0.68-$0.80, which is below the consensus estimate of $0.90 [6][11]. - The company anticipates free cash flow for F2025 to be in the range of $2.6-$3.0 billion, down from a previous estimate of $3.2-$3.6 billion [2][7]. Investment Thesis - The report suggests that HPQ's growth may be impacted by softer near-term demand for PCs and printing due to macroeconomic factors and excess channel inventory [13]. - However, HPQ's focus on higher-end PCs and initiatives in the printing segment, such as ink subscription services, may provide a competitive edge [13][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating on Sicoya, reflecting confidence in its growth potential driven by technology advancements in silicon photonics [2][14]. Core Insights - Sicoya's management is optimistic about revenue growth in 2025, primarily due to the increasing adoption of silicon photonics in data centers to meet high-speed transmission demands [4][7]. - The company has commenced mass production of its 200G/lane silicon photonics chips in 2025, which is expected to contribute significantly to revenue [4][6]. - The transition to co-packaged optics (CPO) is anticipated to enhance the adoption rate of 800G and 1.6T products, with major tech companies already working on CPO solutions [7]. Company Profile - Sicoya is an early entrant in the silicon photonics interconnect solutions market, with manufacturing facilities in China and Europe. The company primarily serves data centers and has a smaller revenue stream from telecom communications [3]. - As a fabless company, Sicoya competes with global peers such as Intel, Cisco, and Airlab [3]. 2025 Outlook - Management's positive outlook for 2025 is based on the anticipated rise in silicon photonics adoption in data centers, driven by the need for higher transmission speeds [4][6]. - The company expects to see revenue contributions from its new products starting in 2026 [6]. CPO Impact - The shift towards CPO is expected to not only enhance silicon photonics adoption but also impact various components within the supply chain, including switch chips and cooling systems [7].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a Neutral rating to Nissin Foods Holdings with a 12-month price target of ¥3,700, indicating an upside potential of 19.7% from the current price of ¥3,090 [1][3]. Core Insights - The report anticipates largely flat profit growth for the next two years, with core operating profits from existing businesses revised to +2.9%/-0.2%/-2.3% for FY3/26-FY3/28, reflecting a year-on-year growth of -0.8%/+0.2%/+2.3% [1][18]. - The downward revision in profit estimates is attributed to delayed depreciation expenses due to the postponement of the new US factory's start date, leading to expectations that FY3/26 profits will miss guidance primarily due to weakness in the US market [1][18]. - The target price has been lowered from ¥3,900 to ¥3,700, with a slight adjustment in the target multiple from 20.5X to 20X based on recent share price movements [1][20]. Financial Estimates - For FY3/26, total revenue is estimated at ¥798.0 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 2.8%. Core operating profit is projected at ¥82.9 billion, reflecting a slight decline of 0.8% year-on-year [4][13]. - Net profit for FY3/26 is expected to be ¥53.4 billion, down from previous estimates, with an EPS of ¥185.1 [4][13]. - The report highlights that the company's core operating margin is estimated at 10% for FY3/26, compared to 15% for competitors, indicating a need for improvement in margins to enhance return on equity (ROE) [18][19]. Market Performance - The report notes that Nissin Foods has experienced a decline in US market performance, with expectations of flat volume and a 4.0% increase in average selling price (ASP) for FY3/26 [1][18]. - The company's net margin is projected at 6.7%, which is lower than competitors, suggesting that improving margins will be crucial for enhancing ROE [18][19]. - The report also indicates that investor interest is focused on net margin and ROE, with Nissin's leverage appearing better than competitors, but the low net margin is a concern [18][19].

28 May 2025 | 8:01AM AEST Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corp. (FPH.AX): First Take: Hospital consumables and GM% to drive FY26 upgrades FPH delivered a strong FY25 result with total revenue and NPAT broadly in line with our estimates and ahead of Visible Alpha (VA) consensus by ~1% and 4%. Compositionally, solid growth in FPH's new application consumables and hardware segments were the key drivers for Hospital segment revenue coming ahead of VA consensus by ~2% (-1% vs Gse). The strong recovery in Gross Margin ...

Investment Rating - The report reiterates a Buy rating on CRL, COLI, Greentown, Jinmao, and Longfor, while maintaining a Neutral rating on Poly and CMSK [2][41]. Core Insights - The report highlights improving land investment efficiency among developers, with 86% of land bank investments concentrated in the Top 10 cities, indicating a strategic shift towards better-performing markets [1][28]. - The analysis suggests that new acquisitions by six key developers are expected to yield gross profit margins (GPM) in the mid-teen% to over 20%, an improvement from below teen% levels for land acquired before 2024 [1][35]. - The average return on equity (ROE) from these new acquisitions is projected to be around 8%, aligning with historical trends and supporting a valuation recovery [1][35][43]. Summary by Sections Best Performing Cities - The Top 10 cities, including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, have shown resilient pricing trends and signs of price stabilization in both primary and secondary markets [5][6]. - Home sales volume in these cities has indicated a year-on-year recovery trend, with a 36%/2% decline compared to the peak month in 2021 and the monthly average in 2024 [10][12]. Margin & ROE Improvement - The report notes that the concentration of land investment in the Top 10 cities has increased significantly, with these cities accounting for 86% of new land investments since 2024, compared to about half from 2018-2023 [28][29]. - The expected GPM for new acquisitions is projected to reach an average of 14% for 2026E-2027E, compared to an average of 13% in 2024 [35][37]. Upward Revisions - The report revises the 2026E/27E GPM for the six developers by an average of 0.2pt/0.7pt and their target prices by 1-5%, reflecting a more positive outlook on price trends and land acquisitions [2][37]. - The earnings estimates for 2025E-27E are projected to be approximately 10% above consensus, driven by higher topline and margin expectations [40][41].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a Neutral rating to Infratil (IFT.NZ) [1][4][15] Core Insights - The FY25 results were softer than expected, with Proportionate EBITDAF declining by 4% compared to Goldman Sachs estimates, leading to a downgrade in FY26 guidance to NZ$1,000-1,050 million, which is 3%-5% lower than previous estimates [1][4] - Infratil plans to monetize NZ$1 billion of assets that are unlikely to scale under the current ownership model, with the capital reinvested in businesses that can provide more meaningful returns [2] - The healthcare portfolio is performing strongly, with RHCNZ and Qscan expecting accelerating EBITDAF growth into FY26 [2] - Longroad Energy is targeting an OpCo run-rate EBITDA of US$370 million by March 2026, driven by contributions from projects that are operational or under construction [2] Financial Performance - FY26-28 EBITDAF estimates have been revised down by 3% to 4% due to CDC deferrals and increased costs for One NZ [4][13] - The 12-month target price is set at NZ$10.70, reflecting a 3% decrease from previous estimates [4][14] - Key financial metrics include projected revenue growth of 22.7% for FY25, with a decline in EPS for FY26 expected at NZ$0.13, compared to a previous estimate of NZ$0.09 [10][11] Investment Thesis - Infratil is positioned to benefit from increased digital consumption and AI adoption, particularly through its investments in digital infrastructure and renewable energy [15] - Despite positive long-term themes, the current market valuation appears to have already factored in these growth prospects, leading to a Neutral rating [15]

On May 27, we held a fireside chat with Takeshi Okazaki, Group Senior Executive Officer & CFO of Fast Retailing. Mr. Okazaki's comments were notable for indicating (1) considerable scope for operational improvements that could boost the gross margin and cost efficiency further and ultimately lead to better individual store management and SKU management, (2) the potential for the company to achieve its sales targets for FY8/27 (¥500 bn in Europe and ¥300 bn in North America) one year ahead of schedule, and ( ...

28 May 2025 | 5:49AM BST NN Group (NN.AS): CMD takeaways We see the key takeaways from NN's Capital Markets Day as: 1) its €2.2bn / >€1.8bn 2028e operating capital generation (OCG) / free cash flow (FCF) targets, 2) the c.€200mn of benefits expected from its Future Ready AI investments (included within its targets), and 3) capital return where there was no change to its c.7-8% DPS CAGR or the €300mn buyback; however, given its organic capital build, we still expect an upgrade to a €350mn buyback at its FY'2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating on Capital One Financial Corp. (COF) with a 12-month price target of $242, indicating an upside potential of 30.8% from the current price of $185.08 [14][15]. Core Insights - The report projects a consolidated EPS of approximately $25.50 by 2027, reflecting an EPS accretion of around 34%, an increase from the previous estimate of 29% [3][5]. - The analysis includes a pro-forma CET1 ratio of 14.13% at closing, which adjusts to 15.00% when factoring in updated deal assumptions [7][8]. - The report anticipates approximately $24 billion in share buybacks through the end of 2027, with $16 billion expected by the end of 2026 [11]. - Cost reduction estimates for the integration of Discover Financial Services (DFS) into COF are conservative, with an expected reduction of 26% in operating expenses, compared to historical reductions of 35-40% in similar deals [3][11]. Summary by Sections Earnings Projections - GAAP net income is projected to be $7.94 billion in 2025, $10.01 billion in 2026, and $12.43 billion in 2027, with corresponding GAAP EPS of $13.15, $17.50, and $22.85 respectively [6][12]. Capital and Buybacks - The report models a total of $24 billion in buybacks through 2027, with a focus on maintaining a CET1 ratio of around 11% post-integration [11][12]. - The estimated TBV dilution post-deal close is approximately 21%, driven by a higher non-PCD allocation of DFS loans [11][12]. Fair Value and Loan Analysis - The fair value of the loans is estimated at approximately $116.6 billion, with no PCD "gross up" in the updated loan marks [9]. - The report indicates that a Day 2 allowance will need to be established for the non-PCD portion of the loans, resulting in a pro-forma CET1 of 13.77% post-closing [10].

28 May 2025 | 7:13AM BST Aroundtown SA (AT1.DE): 1Q25 results: FFO1ps 8% below GSe, FY25 guidance reiterated Aroundtown released 1Q25 results which were 8% below GSe on FFO1ps and 1% above GSe on NTAps. The miss on FFO1ps was due to lower-than-expected operating and other income (i.e. service charge) and EBITDA contribution from joint ventures (e.g. seasonality), while financial expenses were below GSe. Operationally, net lfl rental growth was 3.0% for the portfolio (+10bp qoq). In residential, the lfl net ...