Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an overall investment rating for the industry but highlights various themes and trends impacting covered companies [2]. Core Insights - The report identifies ten key themes shaping the industry landscape through 2025, focusing on the evolution of consumer AI, implications for cloud computing, the blurring lines between advertising and eCommerce, and the impact of digital advertising automation [5][7][39][43]. Summary by Themes Theme 1: The Evolution of the Consumer AI Landscape - The consumer AI landscape is evolving, with major companies like GOOGL and META positioned to capitalize on changing consumer behaviors through innovative AI applications [20][21]. Theme 2: The Implications of AI for Cloud Computing & CapEx - AI is expected to drive significant growth in cloud computing, with companies like AMZN and GOOGL focusing on stable revenue trends and capital investments to support AI workloads [29][30]. Theme 3: The Lines Between Advertising and eCommerce Models Continue to Blur - Companies are increasingly adopting partnership models rather than competing directly, with GOOGL, META, and AMZN well-positioned to benefit from social commerce trends [39][40]. Theme 4: Digital Advertising Shifts to AI Automation & Direct Response - The digital advertising sector is shifting towards AI-driven automation, with platforms focusing on direct-response advertising to enhance revenue growth amid macroeconomic uncertainties [47][48]. Theme 5: A Future of AVs & the Pathway for Mobility Networks - The rise of autonomous vehicles (AVs) is expected to reshape mobility networks, with companies like UBER and LYFT exploring partnerships to adapt to this evolving landscape [55][56]. Theme 6: The Battle for Same/Next Day Local eCommerce - Local eCommerce is experiencing growth driven by faster delivery speeds, with AMZN and UBER competing aggressively in this space [61][62]. Theme 7: The Normalization of Online Travel Demand (& Evolution of the Marketing Funnel) - The online travel sector is stabilizing post-pandemic, with growth expected to normalize, focusing on brand loyalty and optimizing marketing spend [68][72]. Theme 8: The Evolution of Interactive Entertainment Platforms - Interactive entertainment companies are diversifying their offerings, expanding into new verticals and enhancing user engagement through innovative content strategies [80][81]. Theme 9: The Transition from Mobile Computing to Spatial Computing (Over the Long-Term) - The industry is transitioning towards spatial computing, with companies investing in hardware and software developments to drive consumer adoption of AR/VR technologies [93][94]. Theme 10: Regulatory Matters & Changed Ecosystem Defaults Remains the Dominant Risk Factor to Industry - Regulatory scrutiny, particularly around antitrust issues, poses significant risks to major players like AMZN, GOOGL, and META, impacting their operational strategies [95][96].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a moderate uplift to annual investment of $30-135 billion, or 0.1%-0.4% of US GDP, over the next few years based on recent investment announcements [31][30][29]. Core Insights - Companies have announced plans to invest over $2 trillion in the US, with foreign governments pledging an additional $4.2 trillion, indicating a potential surge in US investment [3][5]. - However, the actual impact on US investment is expected to be smaller than the announced figures due to several factors, including the likelihood of some investments not materializing and the overlap with previously planned investments [3][8][30]. - A retrospective examination of similar promises during President Trump's first term indicates that approximately 80% of announced investments were realized [9][30]. - The report estimates that focusing only on specific GDP-relevant projects could yield an uplift to annual investment of $30-135 billion, with additional foreign purchases potentially adding another $50 billion to annual US GDP if they materialize [31][30]. Summary by Sections Investment Announcements - Companies have announced over $2 trillion in investments, implying a $500 billion uplift to annual investment, while foreign governments have pledged an additional $4.2 trillion [3][5]. - The report highlights that many of these announcements may not correspond to actual investment as measured in national accounts, with some companies including spending not relevant for GDP [13][14]. Realization of Announcements - Historical data from the first Trump administration shows that most announced projects were completed, although some high-profile projects fell short of their goals [9][12]. - The report notes that 69% of GS equity analysts view the recent announcements as mostly overlapping with prior plans, indicating limited incremental investment [21][24]. Economic Impact - The report concludes that while the announced investments are significant, the actual economic impact is likely to fall short of the headlines, with a more realistic estimate of $30 billion annually after accounting for overlaps and potential non-realization [30][31].

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Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Alec Phillips +1(202)637-3746 | alec.phillips@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC David Mericle +1(212)357-2619 | david.mericle@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ronnie Walker +1(917)343-4543 | ronnie.walker@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC 17 May 2025 | 10:29PM EDT US Daily: Tracking Trade with High-Frequency Data (Peng) Manuel Abecasis +1(212)902-8357 | manuel.abecasis@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Elsie Peng +1(212)357-3137 | elsie.peng@gs.c ...

市场洞察 - Marquee --- Market Insights - Marquee Market Insights | Markets | Equities 市场洞察 | 市场 | 股票 Equities - Alpha 股票 - 阿尔法 A lot has happened in the last month – reciprocal tariff pause, US-UK trade deal, US-China détente, Indo- Pak ceasefire, Trump's Saudi trip deal announcements, back & forth in Russia-Ukraine peace talks & Iran nuclear deal 过去⼀个⽉发⽣了许多事情——互惠关税暂停、美英贸易协议、美中缓和、印巴停⽕、特朗普沙特之⾏及 协议宣布、俄乌和平谈判反复以及伊朗核协议 Left tail in equities got priced out and right tail has been left to imagination 股票市场的左尾⻛险已被剔除，右尾⻛ ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for China's trade flows, particularly in exports, driven by significant tariff reductions and recovering import growth [2][32]. Core Insights - Export-led growth has been a crucial driver of China's economy, contributing to over half of the 5% real GDP growth in 2024 [3][32]. - The report emphasizes the importance of timely monitoring of trade flows using shipping data due to high uncertainty surrounding China's trade dynamics [4][32]. - Vessel traffic data is highlighted as an effective tool for tracking trade flows, with seaborne trade accounting for 67% of US imports from China [9][10]. Summary by Sections Seaborne Trade's Significance for China - Seaborne imports from China represent 67% of US imports and 60% of EU imports, indicating a strong reliance on maritime transport for trade [11][10]. - The share of seaborne exports to the US has increased from 62% in 2017 to 69% in Q1 2025, with higher-value goods often transported by air [10][11]. High-Frequency Shipping Data - The report discusses the development of high-frequency shipping data, which allows for daily and weekly tracking of trade flows, contrasting with the monthly release of official trade statistics [15][20]. - Elane's data is noted for its accuracy in tracking year-over-year growth for both exports and imports, outperforming other datasets [27][31]. Month-to-Date Tracking - As of mid-May, the month-to-date tracking indicates resilient export growth and recovering import growth, with expectations of further upside due to US-China trade talks [32][34]. - The report suggests that the significant tariff reductions and the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs could enhance China's export performance in the coming months [32][34].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a mixed sentiment on equities, with a notable improvement compared to previous bearish views, but still reflects uncertainty in the market [2][6]. Core Insights - Following the US-China trade truce, investors have significantly adjusted their recession expectations, with nearly 60% now assigning a 30% or lower probability of a recession occurring within the next 12 months, a stark contrast to the previous month where nearly half expected a 50% or higher probability [4][6]. - Despite improved sentiment, volatility is anticipated to remain elevated throughout the year, with 60% of respondents expecting the VIX index to reach 30 or higher by year-end [3][13]. - A majority of investors (70%) expect the S&P 500 to end the year above 5,800, a significant increase from only 25% who held this view last month [6]. Summary by Sections Market Sentiment - Risk sentiment has improved on the margin, but investors still expect more bouts of elevated volatility this year [2][13]. - 48% of respondents now expect the Fed funds rate to end the year above 3.75%, up from 31% last month [17][20]. Equities Outlook - The current sentiment on equities is mixed, with 36% bullish and 30% bearish [6]. - The S&P 500 is currently at 5,896, with expectations for year-end values significantly higher than previous estimates [8]. Interest Rates - Investors expect the next Fed rate cut to occur in September, with a slight bull steepening anticipated in the yield curve [20][24]. - 59% of respondents expect 2-year yields to be below 3.4% by year-end [20]. Currency Expectations - There has been a notable shift in sentiment regarding the euro against the dollar, with 46% expecting EUR/USD to end the year above 1.15, compared to only 22% last month [25].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - A-share trading volume reached a year-to-date low in mid-April, influenced by pre-holiday caution and uncertainties regarding domestic stimulus and US/China trade negotiations [4] - Post-Labor Day, trading volumes rebounded approximately 20% from pre-holiday levels, indicating a recovery in market liquidity, with an average daily volume of $181 billion in May, a 10% increase compared to April [4] - Volatility peaked after Liberation Day but has since decreased as trade-related concerns eased [4] - Average spreads narrowed by approximately 1-1.5 basis points in May compared to April, with the most significant reduction occurring in the first 30 minutes of trading [4] - The average quote size at the top of the order book increased by roughly 20% compared to April, suggesting lower transaction costs due to tighter spreads and deeper liquidity [4] - CSI300 stocks' volume participation rose from 18% to 25% after the Labor Day holidays [4][16] - Onshore Equity ETFs saw the largest weekly inflows during the week of April 11, primarily driven by CSI300 ETFs, although these inflows were followed by three weeks of net outflows [4] - Chinese Equities experienced moderate net buying activity for four consecutive weeks, with A-shares accounting for 70% of net buying flows [4] - Gross allocation to China has decreased from year-to-date highs, currently at 4.7%, while net allocation has increased to 8.6% [4] Summary by Sections Liquidity Overview - A-share trading volume dropped to a year-to-date low in mid-April due to investor caution [4] - Recovery in liquidity was observed post-Labor Day with a significant rebound in trading volumes [4] Foreign Positions & Flows - The report indicates a moderate net buying activity in Chinese equities, with A-shares dominating the flows [4] Sector Performance - Industrial, Finance, and Technology sectors saw the largest month-over-month volume increases, while Property and Utilities experienced reductions [4]

市场洞察 - Marquee --- Market Insights - Marquee Market Insights | Markets | Equities 市场洞察 | 市场 | 股票 markets / macro 市场 / 宏观 S&P went wire-to-wire this week ... convincingly recovered the 200-day moving average ... and, having rallied 20% o the April lows, now sits just 3% from the February highs. 标普本周⼀路上涨……令⼈信服地收复了 200 ⽇均线……⾃四⽉低点反弹了 20%，现距⼆⽉⾼点 仅 3%。 a market framework: ⼀个市场框架： i. locally, the administration put a few more points on the board (witness price action in the stocks most levered to the ME deals). i. ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for iFlytek is Neutral, with a 12-month price target of Rmb55.30, indicating an upside potential of 15.9% from the current price of Rmb47.70 [9]. Core Insights - iFlytek has initiated a diverse AI monetization strategy targeting ToC, ToB, and ToG clients, focusing on API token fees, industry-specific AI solutions, and SOE/government projects [2][3]. - The company launched an "On-Prem LLM All-in-One solution" for enterprises, allowing clients to deploy multiple AI models on a single machine, enhancing operational efficiency [3]. - iFlytek's AI models are being integrated into automotive solutions, with applications in smart cockpits and audio systems, showcasing the company's expansion into the automotive sector [4][6]. Summary by Sections AI Monetization Strategy - iFlytek's AI monetization strategy includes the Spark LLM API token fee, industry solutions in education, healthcare, and automotive, and customized AI model services for SOE/government projects [2]. - The upgraded Spark reasoning model X1 was released in April 2025, with plans for continued in-house development of AI foundation models to optimize performance [2]. Enterprise Solutions - The "On-Prem LLM All-in-One solution" launched in April 2025 supports multiple AI foundation models for enterprise clients, allowing for customized solutions across various industries [3]. - Key features of the solution include Spark Insight for sales conversation analysis, OceanDoc for presentation generation, and Spark Wallex for integrating AI into hotel software applications [3]. Automotive Applications - iFlytek showcased its smart cockpit and smart audio solutions at the Autoshow Shanghai, with AI models adopted by over 16 automotive brands [4][6]. - The AI agents in the smart cockpit can summarize user-generated content and provide tailored recommendations, enhancing the passenger experience [6]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for iFlytek indicate growth from Rmb23.34 billion in 2024 to Rmb41.02 billion by 2027, with EBITDA expected to rise from Rmb2.53 billion to Rmb6.39 billion in the same period [9]. - The company is expected to achieve an EPS of Rmb0.24 in 2024, increasing to Rmb1.95 by 2027, reflecting strong growth potential [9].